Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a broad decline, with nearly 5000 stocks falling, and the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4006.55 points, down 1.39% [2] - The market sentiment has noticeably cooled, with only the dividend index rising by 0.29% while other indices recorded losses [2] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.13 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 3.2% compared to the previous day [2] Sector Performance - The energy sector saw significant gains, with coal and oil & gas sectors rising by 1.99% and 0.99% respectively, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [5] - Conversely, the non-ferrous metals sector faced substantial declines, with a drop of 6.03%, attributed to profit-taking and a stronger US dollar impacting global metal prices [7] - The commodity index rose by 0.56%, with notable increases in LPG, low-sulfur fuel oil, methanol, crude oil, and ethylene glycol, while lithium carbonate and other precious metals saw declines [10] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has raised concerns about energy supply disruptions, particularly following attacks on Iranian oil facilities [14] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates has contributed to market pressure, with inflation concerns rising due to high global oil prices [14] - The current macroeconomic environment is characterized by high oil prices potentially pushing inflation higher, while supply shortages may disrupt global supply chains, leading to a "stagflation" scenario [7] Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, consumer goods, brokerage firms, precious metals, and energy chemicals, each driven by specific market dynamics and policy support [11] - The report suggests that despite the overall market adjustment, structural opportunities remain, particularly in sectors influenced by geopolitical developments and domestic policy changes [7] Bond Market Insights - The bond market saw a slight increase, with the 30-year government bond futures rising by 0.10% and the 10-year futures up by 0.07%, indicating a stable interest rate environment [10] - The central bank's operations reflected a net withdrawal of 115 billion yuan, maintaining liquidity in the banking system [10] - External shocks and risk aversion are influencing bond market fluctuations, with a notable rebound in the 30-year government bond futures indicating renewed interest in long-term securities [10]

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 能源电力行业领涨 A 股宽幅震荡 ——市场分析 周四（03 月 19 日）A 股市场低开低走、宽幅震荡整理，早盘股指低 开后震荡回落，盘中沪指在 4015 点附近获得支撑，午后股指维持震 荡，盘中石油、煤炭、燃气以及电力等行业表现较好；贵金属、有 色金属、能源金属以及农化制品等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈 现宽幅震荡整理的运行特征。创业板市场周四震荡回落，创业板成 分指数全天表现强于主板市场。 相关报告 《市场分析：通信半导体领涨 A 股小幅上行》 2026-03-18 《市场分析：金融光伏行业领涨 A 股小幅整 理》 2026-03-17 《市场分析：航运半导体领涨 A 股震荡整固》 2026-03-16 联系人： 李智 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2026 年 03 月 19 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 ◼ 后市研判及投资建议 周四 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For coking coal, the supply growth rate is faster than demand, and the supply - demand remains in a loose pattern. Short - term geopolitical disturbances and post - Two Sessions复产 expectations may lead to volatile prices [2]. - For coke, the coking enterprise profit is squeezed, the downstream demand is in the recovery cycle, the fundamental loose pattern remains unchanged, and short - term geopolitical influence may cause the futures price to fluctuate [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为1159.50元/吨，环比上涨3.00元；J主力合约收盘价为1721.00元/吨，环比下跌0.50元 [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量为586793.00手，环比减少44.00手；J期货合约持仓量为40365.00手，环比减少643.00手 [2]. - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 71115.00手，环比增加3185.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为 - 4481.00手，环比减少93.00手 [2]. - JM9 - 5月合约价差为112.50元/吨，环比上涨8.50元；J9 - 5月合约价差为83.50元/吨，环比上涨2.00元 [2]. - 焦煤仓单为0.00张，环比减少300.00张；焦炭仓单为1060.00张，环比减少30.00张 [2]. - JM主力合约基差为190.50元/吨，环比下跌3.00元；J主力合约基差为 - 56.00元/吨，环比上涨0.50元 [2]. Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为1092.00元/吨，环比下跌8.00元；唐山一级冶金焦价格为1665.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]. - 俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为167.50美元/湿吨，环比持平；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1470.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]. - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤（场地价）为1640.00元/吨，环比下跌20.00元；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1570.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]. - 京唐港山西产主焦煤（场地价）为1590.00元/吨，环比持平；天津港准一级冶金焦价格为1470.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]. - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为1406.00元/吨，环比持平；内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为1280.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]. Upstream Situation - 314家独立洗煤厂精煤产量为24.31万吨，环比增加1.21万吨；精煤库存为332.51万吨，环比增加18.91万吨 [2]. - 314家独立洗煤厂产能利用率为33.01%，环比增加2.01%；原煤产量为43703.50万吨，环比增加1024.20万吨 [2]. - 煤及褐煤进口量为3094.00万吨，环比减少1534.00万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为196.90万吨，环比增加3.30万吨 [2]. - 16个港口进口焦煤库存为489.18万吨，环比增加3.44万吨；独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存为969.43万吨，环比增加19.98万吨 [2]. - 全国247家钢厂炼焦煤库存为777.63万吨，环比增加1.99万吨；独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.44天，环比增加0.03天 [2]. Industry Situation - 炼焦煤进口量为1376.98万吨，环比增加303.87万吨；焦炭及半焦炭出口量为59.00万吨，环比减少25.00万吨 [2]. - 炼焦煤总供给为5478.50万吨，环比增加238.97万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为72.39%，环比增加0.10% [2]. - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况为 - 3.00元/吨，环比减少20.00元；焦炭产量为0.00万吨，环比持平 [2]. Downstream Situation - 全国247家钢厂高炉开工率为78.34%，环比增加0.63%；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为82.92%，环比减少2.40% [2]. - 粗钢产量为6817.74万吨，环比减少169.36万吨 [2]. Industry News - 3月上旬，重点监测煤炭企业产量完成6444万吨，日均产量644万吨，旬日均环比2月下旬增加38万吨、增长6.3%，旬日均同比增加9万吨、增长1.4% [2]. - 伊朗最大的天然气田和部分石油化工设施遭美国和以色列袭击，伊朗誓言将打击中东三国石油设施以还击，卡塔尔称伊朗导弹击中天然气枢纽拉斯拉凡工业城，造成严重破坏，此外伊朗还打击了利雅得炼油厂美方专属区域，引发大火 [2]. - 本周，Mysteel统计523家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为88.6%，环比增1.4%。原煤日均产量196.9万吨，环比增3.3万吨，原煤库存536.7万吨，环比减7.5万吨 ，精煤日均产量79.8万吨，环比增2.1万吨，精煤库存254.1万吨，环比减23.6万吨 [2]. Key Points to Watch - Coking enterprise开工 and profit, steel mill开工 and hot metal production [2]

Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock markets experienced a collective decline, with the Nikkei 225 index falling by 3.38%, the South Korean Composite Index down by 2.73%, and both the Australian S&P 200 and New Zealand S&P 50 indices dropping nearly 2% [1] - Major European stock indices also opened lower, with Germany's DAX, the UK's FTSE 100, and France's CAC 40 all declining by over 1% [2] - In the A-share market, major indices saw significant drops, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling over 1% and briefly losing the 4000-point mark, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped over 2% [2] Sector Performance - Over 4900 stocks in the A-share market were in the red, with the non-ferrous metals, steel, and chemical sectors leading the declines. Notably, Sanfangxiang hit the daily limit down, and Anyang Steel fell nearly 9% [3] - Conversely, the gas and oil sectors saw gains, with Tianhao Energy and Kaitan Gas both hitting the daily limit up, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Petroleum rising over 5% [4][6] - The coal sector also performed well, with Shaanxi Black Cat hitting the daily limit up and China Shenhua Energy rising over 4% [9] Oil and Gas Market Dynamics - International oil prices surged due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, with Brent crude oil futures reaching over $110 per barrel. Analysts predict prices could rise to $120 per barrel in the coming days [7] - The geopolitical conflict involving Israel and Iran has led to attacks on key energy infrastructure, raising concerns about energy security and inflation in energy prices [9] Computing Power Sector - The computing power sector has become active, with stocks like Tongniu Information and Hongjing Technology reaching historical highs, driven by the increasing demand for AI services [11][13] - Major cloud service providers, including Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud, have raised prices for AI computing services, reflecting a broader trend in the industry [13]

Market Overview - On March 19, the Asia-Pacific market experienced a significant downturn, termed "Black Thursday," with the Japanese stock market plummeting by 1,800 points and the South Korean market dropping nearly 3% [5][6]. - The MSCI global stock index fell by 0.6%, while Asian benchmark indices saw a sharp decline of 2.8%, indicating a risk-off sentiment among investors [8]. Key Drivers - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has been identified as a primary factor suppressing market performance, particularly due to attacks on critical energy infrastructure, which have led to rising oil prices and heightened inflation concerns [7][10]. - Brent crude oil prices surged by 5%, driven by fears of prolonged conflict affecting energy supplies, particularly after Iran's attacks on Qatar's liquefied natural gas facilities [8][11]. Stock Market Reactions - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.39%, with the Shenzhen Component down by 2.02% and the ChiNext Index down by 1.11%, as the market struggled to maintain the 4,000-point level [17]. - A total of 505 stocks rose while 4,955 stocks declined, with 14 stocks hitting the daily limit down [18]. Sector Performance - Oil and gas stocks showed resilience amid the market downturn, with companies like Tianhao Energy and Hongtong Gas hitting the daily limit up, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Petroleum rising over 5% [19][20]. - The coal sector also saw gains, with Shaanxi Black Cat hitting the daily limit up [21]. - Renewable energy stocks remained active, with companies like Dongfang New Energy and Guangdong Electric Power A reaching the daily limit up [22]. - The computing power leasing sector continued its strong performance, with stocks like Tongniu Information and Meili Cloud hitting the daily limit up [23]. Declines in Other Sectors - The non-ferrous metals sector faced significant declines, with Hongqiao Group hitting the daily limit down [24]. - The storage chip sector underwent adjustments, with companies like Shenke Da and Hengsuo Co. dropping over 10% [25].

Group 1: Steel Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The inventory inflection point of steel has emerged, and steel prices will fluctuate widely. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited. With the arrival of the consumption peak season, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but inventory pressure remains a key factor restricting steel prices. The price will follow raw material fluctuations in the short term, and attention should be paid to the peak - season inventory depletion and raw material price changes [1]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures main contract oscillated. The national building materials transaction volume was 88,800 tons, and the spot transaction was weak with strong market wait - and - see sentiment. This week's data shows that steel inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, building materials production and sales increased significantly, and hot - rolled coil production and sales increased slightly [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials maintain a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory slightly higher than the same period. Plate production is relatively high, and demand is also resilient, but inventory pressure is greater than that of building materials. The improvement of steel supply - demand in the peak season and the inventory depletion amplitude will affect prices. The deterioration of the Middle - East situation indirectly supports the bottom of steel prices [1]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for steel is a unilateral oscillation, with no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [2]. Group 2: Iron Ore Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - External stimuli have eased, and iron ore prices will oscillate and correct. In the short term, the supply pressure of iron ore has increased, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly intensified. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is loose, and high inventory suppresses price performance [3]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures price fell slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports decreased slightly. Traders' quotes mostly followed the market, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 518,000 tons, a 10.69% decrease compared to the previous period [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: High ore prices have continuously stimulated iron ore supply, and the liquidity of some iron ore at ports has been released. After the end of steel mill production restrictions, molten iron production will increase. The short - term supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is not obvious, and high inventory will continue to suppress prices. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation, non - mainstream iron ore shipments, iron ore inventory, and negotiation progress [3]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for iron ore is a unilateral oscillation, with no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [4]. Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The sentiment affects the market, and coking coal and coke prices will oscillate. The supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the downstream raw material inventory is high, which suppresses purchasing enthusiasm. The supply - demand contradiction of coke is limited, and the price is relatively stable in the short term [5][6]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal and coke futures oscillated. Some coal varieties in the production area were affected by the price increase in the external market, and the market sentiment improved. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was stable at around 1,100 yuan/ton. The spot market of coke at ports was stable, and the trading atmosphere in the domestic trade spot market was average [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, domestic coal mine复产 has accelerated, and the supply is relatively loose. The high downstream raw material inventory suppresses purchasing enthusiasm, so coking coal will oscillate in the short term. For coke, the coking profit is acceptable, coke enterprises have resumed production one after another, and steel mills will also increase production steadily later. The supply - demand contradiction of coke is limited, and the price is relatively stable in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Middle - East situation on coal price sentiment [6]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for coking coal and coke is a unilateral oscillation, with no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [7]. Group 4: Thermal Coal Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The market sentiment has improved, and thermal coal prices have rebounded. The supply of coal is increasing, while consumption is weakening due to seasonal factors. The price will oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [8]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The prices of some pit - mouth coal in the main production areas have stabilized and increased, and the port coal prices are basically the same. Affected by the price increase in the external market, the market sentiment has improved, and some terminals and intermediate traders have replenished their inventories. The demand for low - calorie coal at ports is better than that for medium - and high - calorie coal, and the overall inquiry demand has increased. The import cost of imported coal is seriously inverted, and downstream tenders have decreased [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The coal supply is increasing after the end of the Two Sessions, while consumption is weakening due to seasonal factors. The short - term increase in oil and gas prices has not been fully transmitted to coal, so non - power coal demand in the off - season has a greater impact on coal supply and demand. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [8]. - **Strategy**: Not provided

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.39% to close at 4006.55 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 2.02% at 13901.57 points. The ChiNext Index decreased by 1.11% to 3309.10 points, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index dropped by 2.44% to 1339.03 points. Overall, there were 504 stocks that rose, while 4953 stocks fell, with 30 stocks remaining unchanged. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 21,110 billion yuan, a decrease of 649 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, only coal, oil and petrochemicals, and public utilities saw gains, with increases of 1.82%, 1.34%, and 0.34% respectively. Conversely, industries such as non-ferrous metals, steel, basic chemicals, construction materials, and comprehensive sectors led the declines, with decreases of 6.10%, 4.08%, 3.75%, 3.62%, and 3.10% respectively [1]. Concept Sector Performance - The concept sectors that performed well today included optical modules (CPO), selected coal mining, central enterprise coal, oil and gas extraction, hydropower, high transfer, thermal power, central enterprise banks, East Data West Calculation, IDC (computing power leasing), natural gas, Jin Te Gu, photovoltaic inverters, Huawei HMS, and selected electric power stocks. In contrast, sectors such as selected rare metals, industrial metals, lithium mines, rare earths, and phosphorus chemicals experienced a pullback [2].

Group 1: Dividend Progress of Constituent Stocks - As of March 18, 2026, in the SSE 50 Index, 1 company is in the proposal stage, 0 in the decision stage, 0 in the implementation stage, 1 has distributed dividends, and 2 do not distribute dividends [1] - In the CSI 300 Index, 17 companies are in the proposal stage, 0 in the decision stage, 0 in the implementation stage, 2 have distributed dividends, and 23 do not distribute dividends [1] - In the CSI 500 Index, 17 companies are in the proposal stage, 1 in the decision stage, 0 in the implementation stage, 0 have distributed dividends, and 66 do not distribute dividends [1] - In the CSI 1000 Index, 24 companies are in the proposal stage, 0 in the decision stage, 0 in the implementation stage, 0 have distributed dividends, and 223 do not distribute dividends [1] Group 2: Dividend Yield Comparison by Industry - The current dividend yield statistics show that the coal, banking, and steel industries rank the top three in terms of dividend yield among the disclosed dividend proposals [2][3] Group 3: Realized and Remaining Dividend Yields - As of March 18, 2026, the realized dividend yield for the SSE 50 Index is 0.00%, with a remaining dividend yield of 2.82% [8] - The realized dividend yield for the CSI 300 Index is 0.00%, with a remaining dividend yield of 2.14% [8] - The realized dividend yield for the CSI 500 Index is 0.00%, with a remaining dividend yield of 1.17% [8] - The realized dividend yield for the CSI 1000 Index is 0.00%, with a remaining dividend yield of 0.89% [8] Group 4: Tracking of Index Futures Premium/Discount - As of March 18, 2026, the annualized discount for the IH main contract is 2.04%, for the IF main contract is 6.75%, for the IC main contract is 9.65%, and for the IM main contract is 11.28% [1][3] - The tracking of index futures premium/discount levels will consider the impact of constituent stock dividends on the index point drop [2][3] Group 5: Methodology for Dividend Point Estimation - The methodology for estimating dividend points considers the dividend distribution of constituent stocks and their impact on index futures pricing [23][25] - The estimation process involves obtaining accurate data on constituent stock weights, dividend amounts, and total market capitalization [26][28] - The prediction of dividend amounts is based on historical net profit distributions and dividend payout ratios [29][30]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given reports. Group 2: Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Affected by the high opening of coking coal, steel prices maintained a high - level volatile trend. Downstream demand is gradually picking up, and there is a premium for non - standard specifications of rebar. The steel market is in a state of seasonal de - stocking. The supply and demand of steel are seasonally increasing, and the inventory is seasonally decreasing, with the supply - demand basically balanced. However, the upward elasticity of demand is not large, domestic demand is slightly weak, but exports are acceptable. After the end of last week's production restrictions, production will rebound significantly this week, which will test the height of demand. Recently, due to supply - side disturbances of iron ore and coking coal, raw material prices have strengthened, pushing up steel prices. Pay attention to whether rebar and hot - rolled coils can effectively break through 3150 and 3300 respectively [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the main iron ore contract rose first and then fell. Geopolitical conflicts still have an impact, and commodities generally declined. Recently, the acceleration of steel mill复产 and the limited liquidity of some spot varieties have supported the futures price in the short term. The iron ore shipments from Guinea have increased significantly month - on - month, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the shipment growth. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the global iron ore shipments have rebounded month - on - month, with significant increases in Australia and non - mainstream mines. Among the four major mines, FMG and BHP have significant month - on - month increases. The impact of rainfall in Brazil has weakened, and there is no subsequent rainfall in Western Australia. On the demand side, last week's hot metal production decreased month - on - month. The previously overhauled steel mills are concentrated in recent resumptions, and the impact of steel mill overhauls has declined significantly. It is expected that the hot metal production will increase rapidly from this week. In terms of inventory, the steel mill inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the port inventory has increased slightly. Affected by the decline in arrivals and the restocking of downstream steel mills and the increase in port clearance, the port inventory has gradually changed from inventory accumulation to slight de - stocking, but the high absolute value of inventory will still restrict the price increase space. In the future, under the influence of geopolitical shocks, steel mill resumptions, and tightened spot liquidity, the main iron ore contract will fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the operating range referring to 780 - 840 yuan/ton [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Coke**: Yesterday, the coke futures showed a high - level decline. On the spot side, the mainstream steel mills initiated the first round of price cuts on March 4, which was successfully implemented on March 6. With the rise of coking coal, coke has a bottom - building and rebound expectation, and the port price fluctuates with the futures. On the supply side, the coke price adjustment lags behind that of coking coal. After the price cut, the coking profit declined. During the Two Sessions, the coking enterprise's operation decreased slightly and will gradually recover after the sessions. The sharp rise in chemical product prices makes up for the coke loss. On the demand side, after the end of the Two Sessions, the steel mill production restrictions were lifted, the hot metal production increased, and the coking production increased synchronously. With the cost push, the coke price also has a bottom - building and rebound expectation. In terms of inventory, the coal mines and ports are accumulating inventory, while the coking enterprises, steel mills, coal washing plants, and ports are all reducing inventory. The overall inventory is seasonally decreasing, but the upstream inventory accumulation is bearish. The coke supply and demand are basically balanced in the short term. In terms of strategy, the conflict between the US and Iran drives the sharp rise of energy commodities, giving a rising drive to coal and coke as energy substitutes, but the sustainability still needs to pay attention to the improvement of domestic supply and demand. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices, with the range referring to 1650 - 1850, and the arbitrage suggestion is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Yesterday, the coking coal futures showed a high - level decline. On the spot side, the Mongolian coal quotation fluctuates with the futures, and the post - holiday restocking demand is gradually picking up. The conflict between the US and Iran continues to escalate, causing continuous surges in crude oil and natural gas. On the supply side, coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the daily coal production is gradually increasing. In terms of imported coal, the port inventory continues to accumulate and remains at a relatively high level after the resumption of customs clearance. On the demand side, after the end of the Two Sessions, the steel mill production restrictions were lifted, the hot metal production will increase, the steel price rebounded at a low level, and the restocking demand will gradually recover later. In terms of inventory, the steel mills are reducing inventory, while the coking plants and ports are accumulating inventory. The overall inventory is slightly increasing at a medium level. In terms of strategy, the geopolitical conflict causes significant fluctuations in energy, natural gas, and downstream chemical products. Energy inflation and substitution expectations will support coking coal. The spot reaction lags, and it is necessary to focus on macro - impacts and industrial supply - demand changes. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices, with the range referring to 1100 - 1300, and the arbitrage suggestion is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - **Ferrosilicon**: Yesterday, the main ferrosilicon contract declined significantly, and commodities generally fell. On the spot side, the manufacturer's inventory pressure is limited, and production is mainly for order fulfillment. Fundamentally, last week's ferrosilicon production increased slightly month - on - month. In the production areas, Ningxia and Qinghai resumed production, and Shengjin reached full production after resuming production this week. Qinghai is mainly for order fulfillment. The hedging profit did not meet expectations, and the manufacturer's participation decreased. In the future, the ferrosilicon production will continue to increase, but the high electricity price in Qinghai will still suppress the operating rate, and the supply growth rate may be slow. In terms of steel - making demand, the hot metal production decreased month - on - month. The previously overhauled steel mills are concentrated in recent resumptions, and it is expected that the hot metal production will increase rapidly from this week. In terms of magnesium and aluminum production, the daily output is at a relatively low level but has decreased month - on - month, the demand support has weakened, the manufacturers are mainly for order fulfillment, and exports are affected and difficult to conclude transactions. In terms of cost, the Lan charcoal price is stable, the raw coal price and downstream demand are supported, and the electricity prices in the production areas are differentiated, but the profit levels have all been repaired. In the future, in the short term, affected by international geopolitical conflicts, the market sentiment is changeable. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are both increasing, the supply - demand contradiction is limited, but there is no driving force for a trending market. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with the range referring to 5700 - 6200 [7]. - **Ferromanganese**: Yesterday, the main ferromanganese contract declined. Commodities generally fell. Affected by energy costs and manganese ore support, ferromanganese has performed stronger than ferrosilicon recently, and the price difference between ferrosilicon and ferromanganese has widened. On the spot side, the mainstream steel tenders have not been priced yet, and the market sentiment is relatively cautious. Fundamentally, the ferromanganese supply has increased slightly month - on - month. The production in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia is stable, Yunnan has resumed production due to electricity price subsidies, and the valley - electricity costs in Guangxi, Guizhou and other places have increased. The manufacturers still have little enthusiasm to start production; it is expected that there will be new ferromanganese plant production capacity coming on - line in the second quarter, and the supply will continue to increase marginally. In terms of demand, last week's hot metal production decreased month - on - month. The previously overhauled steel mills are concentrated in recent resumptions, and it is expected that the hot metal production will increase rapidly from this week. In terms of cost, some manganese ore sources at the port are in a tight supply - demand balance, and the downstream short - term transactions are difficult. The overall demand is gradually weakening. The manganese ore price fluctuates due to factors such as the resumption of production in the production area. The conflict between the US and Iran has caused an increase in costs such as freight and mining. In the short term, affected by international geopolitical conflicts, the market sentiment is changeable. The supply and demand of ferromanganese are both increasing, and the cost is rising, but the supply growth still suppresses the price increase height, and there is also no driving force for a trending decline. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with the range referring to 5800 - 6400 [7]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3260 yuan/ton, 3200 yuan/ton, and 3280 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton compared with the previous value. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of rebar are 3140 yuan/ton, 3165 yuan/ton, and 3196 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 8 yuan/ton, - 3 yuan/ton, and - 1 yuan/ton compared with the previous value [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3290 yuan/ton, 3220 yuan/ton, and 3280 yuan/ton respectively, with no change compared with the previous value. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of hot - rolled coil are 3310 yuan/ton, 3311 yuan/ton, and 3321 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 3 yuan/ton compared with the previous value [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price is 2980 yuan/ton with no change, and the slab price is 3730 yuan/ton with no change. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar is 3271 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar is 3158 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton [1]. - The profit of East China hot - rolled coil is 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the profit of North China hot - rolled coil is - 40 yuan/ton with no change; the profit of South China hot - rolled coil is 20 yuan/ton with no change. The profit of East China rebar is - 10 yuan/ton with no change; the profit of North China rebar is - 60 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the profit of South China rebar is 160 yuan/ton with no change [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal production is 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.3 tons or 2.8% compared with the previous value. The production of five major steel products is 821.0 tons, an increase of 23.7 tons or 3.0% compared with the previous value [1]. - The rebar production is 195.3 tons, an increase of 22.0 tons or 12.7% compared with the previous value. Among them, the electric - furnace production is 29.0 tons, an increase of 17.3 tons or 148.2% compared with the previous value; the converter production is 166.3 tons, an increase of 4.7 tons or 2.9% compared with the previous value [1]. - The hot - rolled coil production is 295.3 tons, a decrease of 5.9 tons or 1.9% compared with the previous value [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1974.9 tons, an increase of 22.9 tons or 1.2% compared with the previous value. The rebar inventory is 894.2 tons, an increase of 18.5 tons or 2.1% compared with the previous value. The hot - rolled coil inventory is 471.6 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons or 0.0% compared with the previous value [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume is 9.3 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or 8.2% compared with the previous value. The apparent consumption of five major steel products is 798.1 tons, an increase of 106.7 tons or 15.4% compared with the previous value [1]. - The apparent consumption of rebar is 176.8 tons, an increase of 78.6 tons or 80.0% compared with the previous value. The apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil is 295.4 tons, an increase of 13.8 tons or 4.9% compared with the previous value [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Karara Powder, PB Powder, Brazilian Mixed Powder, and Jinbuba Powder are 925.3 yuan/ton, 849.0 yuan/ton, 845.2 yuan/ton, and 886.2 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 2.2 yuan/ton, - 4.4 yuan/ton, - 4.3 yuan/ton, and - 4.3 yuan/ton compared with the previous value [4]. - The 05 - contract basis of Karara Powder, PB Powder, Brazilian Mixed Powder, and Jinbuba Powder is 114.3 yuan/ton, 38.0 yuan/ton, 34.2 yuan/ton, and 75.2 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +3.3 yuan/ton, +1.1 yuan/ton, +1.2 yuan/ton, and +1.2 yuan/ton compared with the previous value [4]. - The 5 - 9 spread is 32.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.0 yuan/ton or 3.2% compared with the previous value; the 9 - 1 spread is 21.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or 2.4% compared with the previous value [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of Karara Powder, PB Powder, Brazilian Mixed Powder, and Jinbuba Powder at Rizhao Port are 951.0 yuan/ton, 793.0 yuan/ton, 823.0 yuan/ton, and 738.0 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 2.0 yuan/ton, - 4.0 yuan/ton, - 4.0 yuan/ton, and - 4.0 yuan/ton compared with the previous value [4]. - The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price is 107.1 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.7 dollars/ton or 0.6% compared with the previous value [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2215.0 tons, a decrease of 394.9 tons or 15.1% compared with the previous value. The global shipment volume (weekly) is 3048.8 tons, an increase of 151.0 tons or 5.2% compared with the previous value [4]. - The national monthly import volume is 9763.8 tons, a decrease of 2200.9 tons or 18.4% compared with the previous value [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.4 tons or 2.8% compared with the previous value. The 45 - port daily average clearance volume (weekly) is 317.9 tons, an increase of 6.8 tons or 2.2% compared with the previous value [4]. - The national monthly pig iron production is 0.0 tons, a decrease of 6072.2 tons or 100.0% compared with the previous value. The national monthly crude steel production is 0.0 tons, a decrease of 6817.7 tons or 100.0% compared with the previous value [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory is 17187.52 tons, an increase of 69.7 tons or 0.4% compared with the previous value. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8929.1 tons, a decrease of 82.5 tons or 0.9% compared with the previous value [4]. - The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 23.0 days, with no change compared with the previous value [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi Grade - 1 wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) is 1681 yuan/ton with no change. The 05 and 09 contracts of coke are -

Group 1 - The coal sector is showing strong performance, with companies like China Coal Energy leading in stock price increases [1][1][1]