Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance and investment strategy of the Honghu Fund, managed by Xinhua Insurance, which has shown significant growth and strategic positioning in the market through long-term investments in high-dividend stocks [1][2][3]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the total assets of Honghu Fund reached 57.112 billion yuan, with net assets of 55.684 billion yuan and a total comprehensive income of 5.684 billion yuan [1][3]. - The Honghu Fund has fully invested its initial capital of 50 billion yuan, achieving a performance that is lower in risk and higher in returns compared to benchmarks [3][9]. - The fund's operating income for the period was 1.203 billion yuan, with a net profit of 968 million yuan [3]. Group 2: Investment Holdings - The Honghu Fund is among the top ten shareholders of Yili Group, Shaanxi Coal, and China Telecom, with a combined market value of 12.04 billion yuan as of the end of Q2 2025 [1][5]. - The fund increased its holdings in Yili Group from 1.88% to 2.42%, ranking 7th among its top shareholders, and in Shaanxi Coal from 1.04% to 1.2%, ranking 5th [5][7]. - The Honghu Fund's second phase has entered the top ten shareholders of China National Petroleum and China Shenhua, while the third phase has acquired shares in Sinopec [1][8]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The Honghu Fund's investment strategy focuses on long-term holdings and low-frequency trading to achieve stable dividend income [2][8]. - The fund targets large listed companies that are constituents of the CSI A500 index, aligning with the insurance industry's need for stable, high-dividend assets [2][7]. - The trend indicates that insurance capital is increasingly utilizing private equity as a significant channel for investment, particularly in high-dividend stocks, which are seen as a safety net in the current market environment [9][10].

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 发布时间：2025-09-01 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 研究助理:李子凯 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100014 Email:lizikai@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《DeepSeek 线上模型升级至 V3.1，字节 开源 360 亿参数 Seed-OSS 系列模型— — AI 动 态 汇 总 20250825 》 - 2025.08.26 《指数上行重返十年高位，涨幅超 10% 芯片相关 ETF 净流出较多——行业轮动 周报 20250824》 – 2025.8.25 《非银爆发虹吸红利防御资金，指数料 将保持上行趋势持续挑战新高——行 业轮动周报 20250817》 – 2025.8.18 《融资余额新高，创新药光通信调整， 指数预期仍将震荡上行挑战前高—— 行 业 轮 动 周 报 20250810 》 – 2025.08.11 《ETF 资金偏谨慎流入消费红利防守， 银行提前调整使指数回调空间可控— — 行 业 轮 动 周 报 20250803 》 ...

9月1日，A股市场整体上涨。 截至收盘，上证指数收报3875.53点，上涨0.46%，深证成指收报12828.95点，上涨1.05%，创业板指收 报2956.37点，上涨2.29%，北证50指数下跌0.36%。A股市场合计成交27780.05亿元，较上一交易日减少 525.88亿元。 1. A股市场全天资金净流出364.22亿元 今日A股市场主力资金开盘净流出183.69亿元，尾盘净流出41.39亿元，A股市场全天资金净流出364.22 亿元。 4.利欧股份主力资金净流入18.51亿元居首 | | | 沪深两市近五日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | | 尾盘净流入 超大单净买入 | | 2025-9-1 | -364.22 | -183.69 | -41.39 | -131.29 | | 2025-8-29 | -527.66 | -222. 09 | -41.04 | -247.22 | | 2025-8-28 | -389.74 | -174. 52 | 88. 42 | -122. 21 | ...

数据快讯-甘其毛都口岸蒙煤周度库存数据 日期 288口岸日度通关车辆合计与月均 甘其毛都监管区蒙煤周度库存(万吨) 2025/5/10 500.00 1800 2025/5/17 2025/5/24 450.00 1600 2025/5/30 1400 400.00 2025/6/7 2025/6/14 350.00 2025/6/20 2025/6/28 300.00 2025/7/5 250.00 2025/7/10 2025/7/19 200.00 200 2025/7/26 2025/8/2 150.00 ** 2025/8/8 2025/8/16 2025/8/24 2025/8/31 根据掌上煤焦最新蒙媒库存数据，截止到9月1日，甘其毛都口岸蒙媒库存数据为245万吨，周度去年存达24万吨。自7月焦煤价格底部 反弹以来,甘其毛都口岸蒙媒库存处于持续去库阶段。8月通关车辆在最后一周持续下降至1000年以内,导致8月月均通年从1130年, 天下降至1085年/天,比7月平均通关车辆960车,增长13%。 研究员：侯建 纪晓云 从业资格 F3066027 交易咨询：Z0011402 联系电话： (010) ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates monthly revenue and profit growth rates for the coal industry based on changes in price and capacity factors[10][15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The pricing mechanism is determined by the last price index of the previous month, which sets the sales price for the next month[10] 2. The model uses year-on-year changes in price factors and capacity factors to estimate revenue and profit growth rates on a monthly basis[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to track and predict industry profitability trends, but it is sensitive to price fluctuations and external shocks[15] 2. Model Name: Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model predicts the supply-demand gap for hogs six months in advance based on the relationship between sow inventory and hog slaughter rates[16][17] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model assumes a stable proportional relationship between quarterly hog slaughter and sow inventory lagged by six months[16] 2. The formula for the slaughter coefficient is: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Hog Slaughter}}{\text{Sow Inventory (Lagged 6 Months)}} $[16] 3. The potential supply six months later is calculated as: $ \text{Potential Supply (t+6)} = \text{Sow Inventory (t)} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (t+6)} $[17] 4. The potential demand six months later is estimated using historical quarterly slaughter data[17] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies hog price cycles but relies heavily on the accuracy of historical slaughter coefficients[17] 3. Model Name: Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth and per-ton profitability for the steel industry by integrating steel prices and raw material costs[19] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model incorporates comprehensive steel prices and costs of raw materials such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel[19] 2. Monthly profit growth rates and per-ton profitability are calculated based on these inputs[19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a detailed view of profitability trends but may not fully capture external demand-side factors[23] 4. Model Name: Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement industries using price and cost indicators, and generates allocation signals based on these changes[25] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model monitors price and cost indicators to assess profitability trends[25] 2. It incorporates manufacturing PMI and real estate sales data to evaluate macroeconomic impacts on industry expectations[25] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is useful for identifying short-term profitability trends but may be limited by the lag in macroeconomic data updates[26] 5. Model Name: Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model estimates profit growth and cracking spreads for the refining industry based on changes in fuel prices, crude oil prices, and new drilling activity[27] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model calculates profit growth rates using changes in fuel and crude oil prices[27] 2. Cracking spreads are derived from the difference between product prices and raw material costs[27] 3. Allocation signals are generated based on oil price trends and drilling activity[27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model captures key profitability drivers but may not fully account for geopolitical risks affecting oil prices[34][35] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Excess Return**: The coal industry underperformed the Wind All-A Index by -9.8% in August 2025[10] 2. Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Supply-Demand Balance**: The potential supply for Q1 2026 is estimated at 19,380 million heads, while the demand is forecasted at 19,476 million heads, indicating a slightly tight balance[18] 3. Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth**: The steel industry is predicted to achieve positive year-on-year profit growth in August 2025[23] 4. Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Glass Industry**: Profit margins continued to decline year-on-year in August 2025, but the rate of decline narrowed[26] - **Cement Industry**: Profitability slightly declined year-on-year in August 2025[26] 5. Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Refining Industry**: Profit growth for August 2025 is predicted to be positive[28] - **Oilfield Services**: Oil prices in August 2025 were lower than the previous year, and drilling activity remained stable, leading to a neutral allocation signal[35]

| | | | | | | | ER FARFER | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/09/01 | | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 Z0022680 | | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | | | | | | 7000 | | | 1000 | | | (元/吨) | RB2601 | HC2605 | 12605 | J2 ...

- The report discusses the performance of major market indices, including the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, which all saw increases over the past week with respective gains of 1.63%, 2.71%, 3.24%, and 1.03%[2][11] - The report highlights the construction and monitoring of micro-cap stock timing and rotation indicators, noting that no closing signals have been issued by the models, indicating no significant systemic risk accumulation in the mid-term, although hourly-level warning signals were triggered in the past week[2][16][18] - The macro timing strategy constructed by the analysts recommends a 50% equity allocation for August, with a signal strength of 100% for economic growth and 0% for monetary liquidity, yielding a return of 1.34% from the beginning of 2025 to the present, compared to a 1.04% return for the Wind All A Index over the same period[4][40][41] - Eight major stock selection factors are tracked across different stock pools, with growth and quality factors performing well in large and mid-cap stocks, while value factors faced pressure in most stock pools. The report suggests maintaining high-weight allocations to growth and consensus expectation factors for the upcoming week[4][46][47] - The report also includes quantitative bond selection factors for convertible bonds, with positive long-short returns achieved by factors such as consensus expectations, growth, financial quality, and value[4][53][54]

2025年8月28日 - 9月1日，山西焦煤举行分析师会议，接受了包括中信证券在内的45家机构调研。本次 会议聚焦公司上半年业绩、成本控制、煤矿盈亏、非煤板块举措、利润分配及未来产量提升等关键问 题。 据了解，本次投资者关系活动类别为分析师会议，采用现场 + 网络形式，地点位于山西焦煤能源集团 股份有限公司19层会议室。参与人员包括公司董事会秘书王洪云、证券事务代表岳志强、财务部部长李 贵林，以及中信证券、长江证券等45家机构人员。 在交流环节，公司介绍了2025年上半年业绩情况：实现营业收入180.5亿元，同比下降16.3%；归母净利 润10.1亿元，同比下降48.4%；扣非后归母净利润10.3亿元，同比下降45.4%。同时，公司向全体股东每 10股派现金股利人民币0.36元（含税），共计分配利润204,375,638.12元，不实施资本公积转增股份。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成 个人投资建议。受限于第三方数据库质量等问题，我们无法对数据的真实性及完整 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Jiangxi Tungsten Industry Holding Group Co., Ltd. (Jiang Tungsten Holding) is exempt from making a mandatory tender offer for Anyuan Coal Industry Group Co., Ltd. (Anyuan Coal) due to the transfer of shares from Jiang Energy Group Co., Ltd. to Jiang Tungsten Holding, which does not change the actual controller of Anyuan Coal [1][2][4] - Jiang Energy Group transferred 389,486,090 shares of Anyuan Coal, representing 39.34% of the total share capital, to Jiang Tungsten Holding without compensation, optimizing the allocation and operational efficiency of state-owned assets [2][4] - The actual controller of Anyuan Coal remains the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Jiangxi Province, ensuring compliance with relevant regulations that allow for exemption from a tender offer [2][4] Group 2 - The financial advisor, CITIC Securities, has been appointed to oversee the acquisition process and ensure compliance with disclosure obligations during the continuous supervision period from April 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025 [1][4] - The transfer of shares has been completed, and the necessary registration procedures have been fulfilled, confirming the change of controlling shareholder from Jiang Energy Group to Jiang Tungsten Holding [3][4] - Jiang Tungsten Holding has committed to maintaining the independence of Anyuan Coal and avoiding any conflicts of interest or related party transactions that could harm the interests of Anyuan Coal and its minority shareholders [5][6] Group 3 - Future plans include the possibility of changing the main business of Anyuan Coal within 12 months post-acquisition, depending on the needs of state capital layout adjustments [7][8] - Jiang Tungsten Holding has no current plans to adjust the board of directors or senior management of Anyuan Coal, nor to modify the company's articles of association or employee hiring policies [9][11] - The financial advisor has confirmed that Jiang Tungsten Holding has adhered to all commitments and legal obligations during the continuous supervision period, with no violations detected [14]

Investment Strategy - The global oil and gas capital expenditure trend is declining, leading to a slowdown in supply growth. Since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, the global carbon neutrality process has accelerated, resulting in a significant decrease in upstream capital expenditure, which was $351 billion in 2021, down nearly 22% from the 2014 peak. The capital expenditure is expected to continue to shrink as major energy companies face pressure from policies and the need for transformation [8][24][25] - The report suggests focusing on companies that benefit from high oil prices and increased capital expenditure, such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), and Sinopec [9][24] Oil Market - The oil market is experiencing fluctuations due to Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities, which have led to a decrease in Russian refining capacity. Brent crude oil is priced at $67.62 per barrel, down 0.43% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil is at $64.16 per barrel, up 1.63% week-on-week [9][27][28] - OPEC's unexpected speed in reducing production and the resilience of demand, supported by recent GDP growth forecasts from the World Bank and IMF, suggest that oil prices may continue to fluctuate [9][24] Coal Market - The thermal coal market is experiencing a slight decline in prices due to weakened downstream demand. The average market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 695 yuan per ton, down 1.14% week-on-week. The total inventory at the nine ports in the Bohai Rim is reported at 23.08 million tons, down 0.79% [10][11] - The report highlights that domestic coal production is being maintained at normal levels, but some areas are affected by rainfall, leading to supply tightness. The demand from power plants remains stable, but the cement market is weak [10][11] Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market is currently in a stalemate, with the price of coking coal remaining stable at 1,610 yuan per ton. The report notes that safety inspections are tightening, limiting the supply of coking coal, while steel mills are cautious about purchasing due to weak market conditions [13][14] - The report suggests focusing on coking coal producers with strong resource capabilities, such as Huabei Mining and Pingmei Shenma Group, as they are well-positioned to benefit from price increases [14] Natural Gas Market - The report mentions the potential restart of the Datang Group's coal-to-gas project in Liaoning, which is the largest single investment project in Fuxin's history. The average price of natural gas in the U.S. is $2.82 per million British thermal units, up 1.3% week-on-week [15][16] - European natural gas prices are also rising, with the UK IPE natural gas price at $10.95 per million British thermal units, up 2.0% week-on-week [15][16] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services industry is expected to maintain its prosperity due to government policies supporting energy security. The total capital expenditure of the three major oil companies is projected to be 583.3 billion yuan in 2023, with CNOOC showing a compound growth rate of 13.1% [18][19] - The global active rig count is reported at 1,621, with a slight increase in the Asia-Pacific region, indicating a stable outlook for the oilfield services sector [18][19]