Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility of the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) poses challenges to regulatory tolerance, with significant fluctuations impacting local businesses and the financial market [1][4][5]. Group 1: NTD Volatility - The NTD experienced a significant increase of 2.5% against the USD, marking the largest single-day gain since early May, bringing its year-to-date appreciation to 12%, the strongest among Asian currencies [1][4]. - The previous trading day saw the NTD plummet by 2.5%, the largest single-day drop since 2001, indicating a pattern of extreme volatility [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the fluctuations reflect a delicate balance for regulators between maintaining exchange rate stability and responding to the weakening USD [4][5]. Group 2: Impact on Local Businesses - The recent volatility coincides with local companies preparing to release their semi-annual reports, which could directly affect the financial performance of firms, including life insurance companies and exporters [4][5]. - The surge in the NTD was driven by significant dollar sales from local exporters and foreign capital inflows, prompting public banks to intervene by purchasing USD to stabilize liquidity [5][6]. Group 3: Regulatory Response - Regulatory authorities are increasingly concerned about the NTD's appreciation, which poses risks to Taiwan's export-dependent economy and pressures life insurance companies holding USD-denominated assets [6][7]. - The Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) has implemented measures allowing life insurance companies to increase foreign exchange reserves to offset potential losses from NTD appreciation [7][8]. - The central bank has also intensified warnings regarding currency purchases by local trading companies and has taken steps to limit foreign capital speculation on the NTD, demonstrating a commitment to stabilizing the exchange rate [8].

近期全球外汇市场呈现显著变化，美元指数持续走弱至多年低位。日本央行货币政策立场的微妙转变，叠加美日贸易关系的复杂演进，正在重塑两国货币的 相对价值。市场参与者密切关注这一趋势的发展轨迹，美元兑日元汇率面临多重压力因素的交织影响。 日本央行政策预期推动日元走强 美日贸易关系的复杂性为汇率走势增添了变数。贸易政策的不确定性对两国经济前景产生了不同程度的影响。日本作为出口导向型经济体，对贸易环境变化 较为敏感，这种敏感性在汇率市场得到了充分体现。 美国关税政策的潜在调整成为影响汇率预期的关键因素。市场担忧新的贸易壁垒可能对日本出口企业造成冲击，进而影响日本经济增长前景。这种担忧在一 定程度上限制了日元的上涨空间，但同时也为美元带来了下行压力。 贸易谈判的进展情况直接影响着市场情绪。谈判过程中的任何积极或消极信号都会在外汇市场引发即时反应。投资者对谈判结果的不同预期，导致美元兑日 元汇率出现较大幅度的波动。 来源：金融界 日本通胀数据持续超出央行目标水平，为货币政策调整提供了基础条件。东京地区消费者价格指数虽有所回落，但仍维持在3.1%的相对高位，明显高于日 本央行设定的2%通胀目标。核心通胀指标的韧性表现，增强了市 ...

Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar is facing multiple pressures, with the dollar index hitting a low of 96.98, the lowest since March 2022, due to rising optimism around US trade agreements and heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - The US economic data for May indicates a decline in personal consumption and income, raising concerns about economic growth, while the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [1] - The Senate's modifications to the tax bill are projected to increase the US debt burden by trillions, complicating the passage of the bill for Republican lawmakers [1] Group 2: European Market Sentiment - There is a significant shift in investor confidence towards European markets, with over $100 billion flowing into European equity funds since 2025, a threefold increase, while the US market has seen an outflow of $87 billion, doubling from the previous year [6] - The European Central Bank's President Lagarde noted that market forces and investor confidence are increasingly favoring Europe [6] Group 3: Currency Performance - The Australian dollar, Euro, New Zealand dollar, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc all showed slight declines against the US dollar across various time frames, indicating a general weakening of these currencies [4][6] - The Euro is sensitive to inflation data, which could impact expectations for European Central Bank rate cuts, with the market currently not expecting a rate cut until December [7] Group 4: Canadian Dollar Outlook - The Canadian dollar is experiencing renewed market optimism due to the resumption of trade negotiations with the US, following the withdrawal of a digital tax that had previously stalled talks [11] - Despite a surprising 0.1% decline in Canada's April GDP, optimistic market sentiment and expectations of potential US rate cuts are expected to support the Canadian dollar in the short term [11] Group 5: Swiss Franc Weakness - The USD/CHF pair is trading weakly, with the Swiss franc hitting a ten-year low, as the KOF leading indicator fell to 96.1, significantly below market expectations [12] - The Swiss National Bank has lowered interest rates to 0% and indicated the possibility of entering negative interest territory if downside risks increase, reflecting ongoing economic weakness in Switzerland [12]

Group 1: Currency Market Overview - The Euro/USD continues to rise, supported by a weaker dollar, trading around 1.1720 [1] - The GBP/USD maintains its upward trend for the fourth consecutive trading day, trading above 1.3700 [1] - The AUD/USD rebounds after a previous decline, trading around 0.6540 following the release of economic data from Australia [1] - The NZD/USD is up near 0.6050 [1] - The USD/CAD is down, trading around 1.3670 [1] Group 2: Key Economic and Political Developments - Trump believes there is no need to extend the July 9 tariff deadline, while the Treasury Secretary admits that completing all negotiations may be difficult [2] - The U.S. Senate is set to vote on the "Big and Beautiful" bill on June 30 [2] - Trump suggests that the U.S. should keep interest rates at 1% or 2% [2] - A poll shows Trump's approval rating has dropped to a new low [2] - Fed's Kashkari expects two rate cuts starting in September, with tariff impacts potentially delaying cuts [2] - The International Bank for Settlements states that Trump's criticism of the Fed's rate decisions does not threaten its independence [2] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Senate version of Trump's tax cut plan will increase U.S. debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade [2] Group 3: Non-USD Currency Developments - Canada cancels the digital services tax to advance broader trade negotiations with the U.S. [3] - A poll in Japan shows support for the Shinto Abe cabinet has remained below 30% for four consecutive months [3] - A trade agreement reducing tariffs on U.S. auto and aircraft parts from the UK has come into effect [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - For Euro/USD, if it breaks below 1.1700, the first support level will be the June 26 low of 1.1653, followed by 1.1600 and the 50-day SMA at 1.1515 [4] - The upward trend for GBP/USD remains intact, but momentum appears to be waning after reaching a multi-year high near 1.3770 [4] - For AUD/USD, a breakout above the descending channel's upper boundary may signal the start of a strong upward trend [4] Group 5: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to watch includes Germany's June CPI at 20:00, U.S. June Chicago PMI at 21:45, and a speech by Fed's Bostic at 22:00 [5] - The Dallas Fed's June business activity index will be released at 22:30, followed by speeches from Fed's Goolsbee and ECB's Lagarde [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate shows resilience and low volatility, with both onshore and offshore rates demonstrating a consistent upward trend against the US dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Onshore and Offshore RMB Performance - On June 30, the onshore RMB closed at 7.1656 against the US dollar, marking a rise of 34 basis points from the previous trading day and reaching the highest level since November 8, 2024 [1]. - In June, the onshore RMB appreciated by 0.41%, while in the second quarter, it cumulatively appreciated by 1.2%, and for the first half of the year, the overall appreciation was 1.86% [1]. - The offshore RMB also showed positive trends, with the exchange rate surpassing 7.16 on June 26, peaking at 7.1524, the highest since mid-November of the previous year [1]. Group 2: External Factors Influencing RMB - The US dollar index experienced a pullback during this period, with a decline of nearly 0.7% on June 26, providing a favorable external environment for the RMB [1]. - Year-to-date, the RMB's midpoint against the US dollar has appreciated by 0.37%, while the onshore spot rate has appreciated by nearly 1.8% [1]. Group 3: Market Stability and Expectations - The RMB exchange rate has exhibited characteristics of "low volatility and resilience," with the onshore and offshore rate differentials narrowing, indicating a stable "three-price unity" [2]. - The stability of the RMB reflects a growing consensus among market participants regarding exchange rate expectations, supported by the stability of China's economic fundamentals [2]. - The recent changes in the exchange rate market occurred amidst increased volatility in global financial markets, influenced by shifts in US Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations [2].

Market Overview - US stock index futures and European stocks rose due to progress in multiple trade negotiations, while Asian markets remained flat [1] - The Japanese stock market increased by 0.8% as Japan's chief negotiator extended their stay in the US to seek an agreement [4] - Canadian withdrawal of the digital services tax for tech companies aims to restart negotiations with the US, strengthening the Canadian dollar and boosting US tech stock futures [1] Asset Performance - Major US stock index futures rose, with Nasdaq 100 and Dow futures up approximately 0.5%, and S&P 500 futures also increasing by about 0.5% [2] - European stocks saw slight gains, with the pan-European index, UK stocks, and French stocks rising over 0.1%, while German stocks increased by over 0.2% [3] - The Nikkei 225 index closed up 0.8% following the extension of negotiations in the US [4] Currency and Commodity Movements - The US dollar index fell by approximately 0.2%, while the Japanese yen rose over 0.5% [5] - The South Korean won rose over 1% to its highest level since October last year, currently up about 0.7% [6] - Spot gold and silver increased by about 0.6% [9] - Crude oil prices declined, with US oil down about 0.4% and Brent oil down about 0.2% [10] Geopolitical and Trade Developments - Easing geopolitical risks and expectations of imminent trade agreements have added momentum to risk assets [12] - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump agreed to restart negotiations aiming for an agreement by July 21 [13] - French Finance Minister Eric Lombard indicated that the EU is likely to reach some form of trade agreement with the US before the July 9 deadline to avoid significant tariffs on EU products [13] - India's trade team has also extended their stay in Washington to resolve differences before the July 9 deadline [13]

Group 1: Currency Performance - The US dollar has experienced a decline of over 2% this week, reaching a low of 96.99, marking its worst first half performance since 1986 with five consecutive months of decline [1] - The euro has appreciated against the dollar, rising 0.05% to 1.1705, with a weekly increase of 1.57%, the best since May 19 [8] - The Canadian dollar weakened by 0.5% to 1.37 CAD against the US dollar amid trade tensions [3] Group 2: Trade Relations - President Trump abruptly halted trade talks with Canada, accusing it of imposing new taxes on US tech companies, which he termed a "blatant attack" [3] - Canada plans to impose a digital services tax on US tech companies starting June 30, prompting Trump's strong opposition and a potential increase in tariffs on Canadian goods [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - Market expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have increased, with traders anticipating a reduction of 65 basis points by the end of the year, up from 46 basis points a week prior [6] - Fed Chairman Powell's recent testimony has been interpreted as dovish, suggesting potential rate cuts if inflation does not rise as expected [5][6] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks - Trump's strong stance against Iran, including the possibility of military action if uranium enrichment reaches concerning levels, has heightened geopolitical risks [4] Group 5: Economic Indicators - Recent US economic data shows a surprising decline in consumer spending and an increase in unemployment claims, indicating a weakening economy [5]

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market experienced a significant return of risk appetite during the week of June 20 to 27, 2025, driven by the easing of geopolitical tensions and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Geopolitical Factors - The notable easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, alleviated concerns about escalating conflicts, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices from nearly $80 to $66, marking the largest weekly drop since March 2023 [1]. - The reduction in geopolitical risk premium also diminished the appeal of traditional safe-haven assets like gold, which saw a consecutive decline for two weeks [1]. Monetary Policy Signals - The Federal Reserve's dovish signals, particularly from Vice Chair Bowman, who unexpectedly supported the possibility of rate cuts in the summer, indicated a shift in the Fed's internal assessment of inflation and economic outlook [3]. - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2025 have risen to 2-3 times, with an increased probability of a cut in July, leading to a significant decline in U.S. Treasury yields [3]. Market Performance - Global stock markets experienced a broad rally, with major U.S. indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones reaching historical highs, reflecting restored market confidence and a shift towards growth-oriented assets [4]. - Technology stocks, sensitive to interest rate changes, benefited significantly from the rising rate cut expectations [4]. Regional Market Trends - Asian markets, particularly Japan, showed strong performance, reflecting improved global risk sentiment and optimism regarding trade prospects [5]. - The cryptocurrency market also thrived, with Bitcoin surpassing $107,000, indicating strong institutional interest in crypto assets [5]. Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index experienced its worst week in years, dropping to a three-year low due to reduced demand for the dollar as a safe-haven currency and narrowing interest rate differentials [6][7]. - Other major currencies, such as the euro and British pound, strengthened against the dollar, reflecting improved economic outlooks [7]. Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market showed clear differentiation, with oil and gold prices declining due to reduced geopolitical risk and safe-haven demand, while industrial metals like copper rose nearly 6% to a two-month high [8]. - The performance of different commodities was influenced by unique fundamental factors, despite an overall improvement in risk appetite [8]. Upcoming Economic Indicators - The upcoming week is expected to bring significant economic data releases, including global PMI, CPI, and U.S. non-farm payroll reports, which will provide insights into global economic health and inflation pressures [8].

Core Points - The central exchange rate of the Renminbi (RMB) against various currencies has shown fluctuations, indicating a mixed performance in the foreign exchange market as of June 30, 2025 [1] Currency Exchange Rate Summary - The USD/RMB rate is reported at 7.1586, reflecting a depreciation of 41 points for the RMB [1] - The EUR/RMB rate is at 8.4024, showing an appreciation of 256 points for the RMB [1] - The HKD/RMB rate stands at 0.91195, with a decrease of 5.5 points for the RMB [1] - The GBP/RMB rate is recorded at 9.8300, indicating a decline of 45 points for the RMB [1] - The AUD/RMB rate is at 4.6817, down by 104 points for the RMB [1] - The CAD/RMB rate is reported at 5.2358, reflecting a decrease of 161 points for the RMB [1] - The JPY/RMB rate is at 4.9594, with an increase of 12 points for the RMB [1] - The RMB/RUB rate is reported at 10.9558, showing a decline of 228 points for the RMB [1] - The NZD/RMB rate is at 4.3475, indicating an appreciation of 30 points for the RMB [1] - The RMB/MYR rate is at 0.58996, with a slight increase of 0.1 points for the RMB [1] - The CHF/RMB rate is reported at 8.9721, reflecting an appreciation of 274 points for the RMB [1] - The SGD/RMB rate stands at 5.6179, showing a decrease of 22 points for the RMB [1]

Core Insights - Central banks globally have net purchased gold for 16 consecutive quarters, with an annual increase of 1,297 tons, marking the highest level since the decoupling of the dollar from gold in 1971 [1] Group 1: Structural Advantages of the Forex Gold Market - The international mainstream trading market offers three key characteristics for XAU/USD products compared to traditional gold investment channels [3] - Continuous trading across markets allows investors to respond in real-time to sudden events, exemplified by a 3.5% price fluctuation on the night of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 [5] - The correlation coefficient between the dollar index and gold prices has remained above -0.8, making dual-direction trading tools effective for hedging against currency depreciation during the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle [5] - The average daily trading volume in the forex market exceeds $7.5 trillion, with precious metal-related currency pairs accounting for 12.7%, ensuring liquidity even during market sell-offs [5] Group 2: Risk Management for Individual Participation - It is crucial to ensure regulatory compliance by choosing brokers regulated by multiple authorities such as the UK's FCA and Australia's ASIC [5] - As of 2023, only 37% of forex brokers meet the A-class regulatory standards set by the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) [5] - Investors should be aware of hidden costs during periods of increased volatility and utilize methods like the "three-step verification" to assess actual trading costs [5]