Core Viewpoint - Liuliu Mei, a leading brand in the plum snack industry, is preparing for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after previously failing to list in A-shares, raising concerns about declining profit margins and low R&D investment [2][5]. Company Overview - Liuliu Guoyuan, the parent company of Liuliu Mei, is a major player in the Chinese fruit snack market, with its main products categorized into three types: dried plums, western plums, and other plum-related products [3]. Market Position - According to Frost & Sullivan, Liuliu Guoyuan has ranked first in the green plum and western plum snack sectors by retail sales from 2021 to 2024. However, the market ceiling is evident, with the overall snack market in China projected to grow from 13,440 billion RMB in 2024 to 17,558 billion RMB by 2029 [5]. Financial Performance - The company reported total revenues of 1.174 billion RMB, 1.322 billion RMB, and 1.616 billion RMB for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with net profits of approximately 68 million RMB, 99 million RMB, and 148 million RMB during the same period [5][6]. Profit Margin Trends - Despite revenue growth, the gross profit margin has been declining, with figures of 38.6%, 40.1%, and 36.0% for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively. The margins for core products like dried plums and western plums have also decreased [6][7]. Marketing and R&D Expenditure - The company has invested heavily in marketing, with sales and distribution expenses exceeding 900 million RMB over the reporting period, accounting for 24.1%, 23.4%, and 19.2% of total revenue [8][10]. In contrast, R&D spending has been low, totaling less than 77 million RMB over three years, with a R&D expense ratio of only 1.2% in 2024 [11]. Ownership and Shareholder Actions - The company is primarily controlled by its founders, who hold 87.77% of the shares. Notably, major shareholder Beijing Sequoia chose to cash out before the IPO, selling its shares for 261 million RMB [11]. Food Safety Concerns - Food safety is critical for the company, which has faced multiple complaints and regulatory actions related to product quality. There have been nearly 300 complaints, with issues such as contamination and spoilage frequently reported [12][13][16].

Core Viewpoint - Liu Liu Mei has resumed its path to IPO after five years, presenting a steady growth report but facing significant challenges in product diversity and cash flow due to major investor withdrawal [2][3][13]. Financial Performance - Liu Liu Mei's total revenue is projected to grow from 1.174 billion yuan in 2022 to 1.616 billion yuan in 2024, representing an increase of 85% compared to 2019 [2]. - Net profit is expected to rise from 68.43 million yuan to 148 million yuan during the same period, recovering from a decline seen between 2016 and 2018 [2]. Product and Market Challenges - The company relies heavily on three core products: dried plums, dried plums products, and plum jelly, with over 85% of revenue coming from dried plums and jelly [3]. - Raw material costs have increased significantly, with domestic green plum prices rising from 2,400 yuan to 2,600 yuan per ton and imported dried plum prices increasing from 16,200 yuan to 20,700 yuan per ton from 2020 to 2024 [3]. - The company's raw material costs are projected to rise from 489 million yuan in 2022 to 771 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 41.7% to 47.7% of total revenue [3]. Competitive Landscape - The snack food market is becoming increasingly competitive, with the CR3 and CR5 market concentration ratios declining to 11.1% and 16.5% respectively by 2024 [6]. - Competitors like Three Squirrels and Bestore are offering similar plum snacks at lower prices, putting pressure on Liu Liu Mei's pricing strategy [6][8]. Sales Channels and Strategy - Liu Liu Mei is shifting its sales strategy towards discount snack stores, with revenue from distributors decreasing from 874 million yuan to 659 million yuan between 2022 and 2024 [7]. - The top five customers accounted for 33.1% of total revenue in 2024, with significant sales to major retail chains [7]. Marketing and R&D Expenditure - The company has invested heavily in marketing, with advertising expenses totaling 427 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, representing 27.3% of total gross profit [11]. - In contrast, R&D spending has been minimal, with a research expense rate of only 1.2% in 2024, raising concerns about long-term sustainability [11][13]. Investor Dynamics - Sequoia Capital, a major investor, has exited, leading to liquidity issues for Liu Liu Mei, which had to arrange for D-round financing to cover buyback obligations [13][14]. - The company's cash and cash equivalents were reported at 78.04 million yuan as of December 31, 2024, indicating a tight cash flow situation [14].

Core Viewpoint - Three Squirrels has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to become the first "A+H" snack company if successful [1] Fundraising Purpose - The funds from the IPO will be used to strengthen the supply chain, enhance sales networks and brand awareness, expand product offerings, pursue strategic alliances and acquisitions, and for working capital and other general corporate purposes [1] Supply Chain Development - The company plans to establish new supply chain bases by building multiple production lines across various regions in China and setting up a factory in Vietnam to achieve economies of scale and cost advantages [2][3] Sales Network Expansion - Three Squirrels will focus on advertising on short video platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou, as well as enhancing offline store networks, reflecting a shift in sales channel strategy [4] Strategic Shift - The company has transitioned from a focus on brand building and sales channels to a more integrated approach emphasizing supply chain efficiency and cost reduction, aligning with its core strategy of "high-end cost performance" [5][6] Competitive Landscape - The snack industry is highly competitive with increasing homogenization and the rise of new entrants, necessitating Three Squirrels to adapt its strategies, particularly in offline sales where it has historically been weaker [6][7]

超配（维持） 政策预期强化，关注景气细分 食品饮料行业深度报告 2025 年 4 月 28 日 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：黄冬祎 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 食品饮料行业指数走势 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，同花顺 相关报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 研 究 证 券 深 度 研 究 食品饮料行业 研 究 报 告 ◼ 外部不确定性增加+国内政策定调积极，行业重视度提升。近期外部 不确定性增加，提振内需或将成为推动国内经济增长的重要一环。叠 加国内消费定调积极，食品饮料业绩受海外市场影响较小，行业重视 度提升。 ◼ 白酒板块：根据酒业家调研数据显示，今年春节白酒动销同比下滑10% 左右。节后，步入酒企销售淡季，主要以控货挺价为主。从酒企 ...

证券研究报告 卫龙美味 (9985 HK) 港股通 魔芋开启新纪元，辣味王者再启航 华泰研究 首次覆盖 2025 年 4 月 28 日│中国香港 食品 首次覆盖卫龙美味并给予"买入"，目标价 19.96 港元（基于 25 年 32xPE）。 中国零食行业在较长时间内呈现多品类、弱品牌的特点，辣味零食成瘾性更 强、复购率更高，有效延长产品生命周期。卫龙已成功打造国民辣条品牌形 象、领先优势明显，并作为魔芋赛道的先行者、有望率先享受品类高速扩张 的红利。卫龙根基稳固，品牌力构成竞争力的核心，并具备开创创新品类的 定力与能力，敢为人先、勇于求变，后续或仍将聚焦打造大单品+拥抱新渠 道，有望突破零食行业产品生命周期短、渠道结构多变两大痛点。 行业层面：辣条品类规模稳定，魔芋品类蓬勃发展 辣味零食赛道高景气、强粘性。1）辣条品类：据尼尔森，品类销售体量~100 亿，市场规模稳定，头部品牌显露，据马上赢，23 年卫龙市占率达 28%。 2）魔芋品类：公众健康意识崛起、独特的口感与高性价比之下，魔芋品类 蓬勃发展，中国 24 年魔芋食品出厂口径市场规模~70 亿（据盐津铺子公众 号），年增长 20%+，考虑魔芋的受众较辣条 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that Ganyuan Foods is experiencing short-term performance pressure but anticipates gradual improvement in subsequent quarters, maintaining a "buy" rating for the stock [1]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, Ganyuan Foods reported operating revenue of 2.257 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 376 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 341 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 22.18%, 14.32%, and 16.91% respectively [2]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 652 million yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 99 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 93 million yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 22.05% but declines in net profit of -13.91% and -10.4% respectively [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 504 million yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 53 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 46 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of -13.99%, -42.21%, and -45.14% respectively [2]. Investment Highlights - The company is focusing on stabilizing its existing products while expanding its new product offerings, with revenue contributions from various product lines such as mixed nuts and beans showing growth rates of 39.80%, 12.56%, 10.48%, 19.72%, and 21.17% respectively [3]. - Ganyuan Foods is restructuring its product strategy by upgrading its flavor offerings in beans, nuts, and snacks, launching new products to enhance market presence and channel compatibility [3]. - The company is also diversifying its sales channels, with revenue from distribution, e-commerce, and other channels growing by 22.58%, 10.75%, and 65.45% respectively [3]. Profitability and Cost Management - In 2024, Ganyuan Foods reported a gross margin of 35.46% and a net profit margin of 16.67%, both showing slight declines compared to the previous year [4]. - The company faced increased cost pressures due to rising raw material prices, particularly palm oil, and higher expenses related to overseas market expansion and branding [4]. - For Q1 2025, the gross margin and net profit margin further declined to 34.32% and 10.47% respectively, attributed to increased sales and management expenses [4]. Future Outlook - The company plans to expand into new Southeast Asian markets, including Indonesia and Malaysia, with localized product designs expected to launch around May 2025 [5]. - Ganyuan Foods aims to enhance its e-commerce presence and deepen collaborations with platforms like Tmall and JD.com to drive sales growth [5]. - Cost management strategies include locking in prices for raw materials and increasing direct sourcing to optimize costs, with expectations for profitability to improve in the latter part of the year [5]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - The revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 2.677 billion yuan and 3.102 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 18.61% and 15.86% respectively [6]. - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised to 402 million yuan and 496 million yuan, indicating year-on-year growth of 6.86% and 23.34% respectively [6]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with projected earnings per share (EPS) for the next three years at 4.31, 5.32, and 6.34 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17, 14, and 12 times [6].

前白宫国家经济委员会主任警告，美国关税政策的全面影响将在5月底显现，直接冲击消费品供应和价 格。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间4月27日，曾在特朗普第一个总统任期内担任白宫国家经济委员会主任的加 里·科恩（Gary Cohn）表示，美国目前关税政策的影响将在下个月底开始在全国范围内显现，这一预测 是基于货物运输和分发所需的时间。 科恩说，收入水平及经济实力较低的人群将把100%的薪水都用于购买商品，而富人会存储更高比例的 收入。这意味着关税将对低收入美国人产生更大影响。 各大消费品公司的一季度财报时也印证了这一点：尽管一季度尚可，但对二季度的展望普遍悲观。从快 餐连锁Chipotle、零食巨头百事可乐，到航空公司，乃至高端奢侈品牌LVMH，都发出了销售放缓的警 告。消费者正从市场撤退，仅购买必需品或那些他们认为"今天不买明天会更贵"的商品。 关税冲击波五月底将全面显现，低收入家庭首当其冲 科恩在采访中表示，举例来说，一件商品从中国装船，漂洋过海，在美国卸货、分发至零售货架，大约 需要八周时间——这意味着4月2日生效的关税，其实际效果将在5月的最后几周才真正被市场感受到。 科恩反复强调，关税具有高度的"累退性"。他 ...

丨2025年4月28日星期一丨 NO.4霸王茶姬首家北美门店试运营 4月26日，霸王茶姬首家北美门店正式对外试运营，选址位于美国洛杉矶人气商场Westfield Century City，紧邻比佛利山庄和西洛杉矶等重要区域。霸王茶姬于2019年布局全球化，目前，霸王茶姬在马来 西亚、新加坡、印尼等东南亚国家已有上百家门店。 4月27日，据网络平台数据，截至4月27日6时，2025年"五一"档新片预售总票房破2000万元，《水饺皇 后》《猎金.游戏》《人生开门红》分列前三位。《熊孩子.探险熊兵》宣布档期变更。该片原定于5月1 日13:00全国上映，现片方决定改档至7月5日10:00。 点评："五一"档作为春节档后的首个长假期，已成为片方争夺票房的重要窗口。此次预售表现反映出观 众对于优质影视作品的观影热情依然高涨，这对于影视行业来说是积极的信号，表明市场在经历一定波 动后仍具备较强的复苏动力。 NO.3三只松鼠向港交所提交上市申请书 4月25日，休闲零食企业三只松鼠（300783）向港交所提交上市申请书，公司正式开始冲击"A+H"两地 上市。2025年4月25日，三只松鼠日涨幅1.54%，收于29.75元每股， ...

Core Viewpoint - Three Squirrels has submitted an application for a Hong Kong IPO, aiming to become the first snack brand in China to achieve dual listing on A-share and H-share markets, with plans to use the raised funds for global supply chain enhancement, channel expansion, digital capabilities, and strategic investments [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2022-2024, Three Squirrels reported revenues of 72.93 billion RMB, 71.15 billion RMB, and 106.22 billion RMB respectively, with net profits increasing from 1.29 billion RMB to 4.08 billion RMB [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 139.8 billion RMB in 2024, ranking fourth in China's snack industry, following Mars, Mondelez, and PepsiCo [2] Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - Since April 2022, Three Squirrels has halted store expansion, focusing on closing underperforming stores and enhancing distribution and self-production [4] - The company has introduced a "high-end cost-performance" strategy and a "full-category + full-channel" development approach, launching over 600 new standard product units (SPUs) in 2024 [5] Group 3: Product and Brand Development - The main revenue source remains nuts, but its contribution has decreased from 56.3% in 2022 to 50.5% in 2024, while the revenue from other snacks has increased significantly [5] - The "Three Squirrels" brand saw a 50.57% revenue growth in 2024, while the "Little Deer Blue" brand, targeting children's snacks, achieved profitability and ranked among the top three in its category [6] Group 4: Channel Strategy - Revenue from short video platforms has surged from 7.17 billion RMB in 2022 to 26.35 billion RMB in 2024, increasing its share from 9.8% to 24.8% [7] - The company has reduced its offline store count from 1,065 in 2021 to 333 by the end of 2024, with offline store revenue declining during this period [8] Group 5: Future Outlook and Challenges - Three Squirrels plans to invest up to 360 million RMB to acquire control of new snack brands, aiming to expand its offline presence to over 2,000 stores [9] - The company targets a revenue of 20 billion RMB by 2026, indicating significant growth ambitions despite current challenges in maintaining its revenue structure [9] - Sales expenses increased by 50.92% in 2024, outpacing revenue growth, while overall gross margins have fluctuated, indicating potential pressure on profitability [10]

溜溜果园集团股份有限公司（以下简称"溜溜果园"）于2025年4月16日向港交所递交上市申请，这是继 2019年撤回A股上市后的第二次冲击。作为中国果类零食行业市占率第一的企业，其核心产品"溜溜 梅"凭借"你没事吧？没事就吃溜溜梅"的广告语一度成为国民零食。然而，招股书数据背后，毛利率下 滑、红杉资本清仓离场、产品质量争议等问题，为此次IPO增添不确定性。 质量争议与营销"赌注" 黑猫投诉平台现存400余条与溜溜梅相关的投诉，涉及产品发霉、包装异物、空包等问题。例如，有消 费者称"购买的溜溜梅6味蒟蒻梅冻分享装未食用已发霉"。这与公司研发投入收缩形成对比：2022-2024 年研发费用率从1.8%降至1.2%，同期广告开支却累计达2.2亿元，2024年明星代言支出占净利润71%。 资本退潮与创始人控股 溜溜果园的资本故事始于2013年。彼时，明星杨幂代言的广告让品牌迅速出圈，并吸引红杉资本等机构 入局。招股书显示，北京红杉原为第三大股东，持股13.99%，但2024年6月双方签订股份回购协议， 2025年1月完成减资登记后，红杉彻底退出。创始人杨帆及其妻子李慧敏的合计持股比例升至87.77%， 形成高度集中的股 ...