2025年7月，创业板指呈现显著上涨态势，月度累计涨幅达8.14%，延续了6月的上涨趋势，形成连续两个月的强势表现，在市场普涨的行情下领先其它市场 大盘指数；资金面方面，7月市场交投活跃度显著提升，月末A股日均成交额超2万亿元，较6月环比增长显著。在价量齐升的背景下市场风格明显偏向成 长。在具体行业层面，整个7月医药生物、通信等板块涨幅靠前，均为创业板权重领域，行业的表现与创业板指的强势形成呼应。那么站在八月初展望未 来，创业板指是否还有配置机会？ 图：6月底以来市场情绪积极利好成长风格 数据来源：Wind，截至2025/7/31 我们先梳理海内外的宏观环境。国内宏观经济方面，7月制造业PMI在荣枯线下方继续回落，PPI数据仍然承压，但"反内卷"政策对原材料、产成品价格起到 明显提振作用。政治局会议信号显示，下半年经济政策重心转向调结构，结构性货币政策工具将重点支持科技创新、消费等领域，与创业板的行业构成高度 契合，后续随供需格局改善，指数盈利边际上或改善明显。海外方面，美联储货币政策走向成为关键变量。FOMC未于7月降息，叠加非农数据显著下修点 燃市场降息预期。对华关税或维持原先走势，但考虑美国经济景气程度 ...

Market Overview - On August 5, the A-share market showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 3600 points and closing up 0.53% at 3602.13 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.14% and the ChiNext Index fell 0.26% due to adjustments in AI hardware [2][3] - The Hong Kong market continued its rebound, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.27% to 24799.67 points, driven by strong performances in healthcare and materials sectors [2][3] Leading and Lagging Sectors - In the A-share market, leading sectors included PEEK materials, consumer electronics, steel, real estate, and banking, with respective gains of 1.32%, 1.24%, and 1.12%, driven by policy catalysts and expectations of infrastructure investment [2][3] - Lagging sectors showed a "high to low" characteristic, with declines in computer and pharmaceutical sectors of 0.64% and 0.45%, reflecting cautious sentiment towards high-valuation tech stocks [3][4] - In the Hong Kong market, the healthcare index led with a 1.91% increase, supported by the new pricing mechanism for innovative drugs, while the paper and packaging index surged 4.47% due to a new round of price hikes [3][5] Investment Insights - The current market is characterized by "structural trends and accelerated capital rotation," with A-shares facing profit-taking pressure around the 3600-point mark but maintaining high trading volumes [6] - Investment focus should be on sectors benefiting from policy support, such as new materials, consumer electronics, and infrastructure chains, while monitoring economic data and policy interactions between China and the US for Hong Kong stocks [6] - Long-term investment themes include technology (AI, semiconductors, advanced manufacturing), new consumption (smart home, service consumption), and non-ferrous metals, which are seen as having allocation value [6]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - A-share market in China - Hong Kong stock market Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Outlook for August 2025**: The A-share market is expected to experience a "first decline, then rise" trend, with the potential for new highs driven by intrinsic value improvement, industry trends, and incremental capital inflow [1][3][6] 2. **Economic Stability**: China's economy is showing signs of stability with fiscal stimulus, resilient exports, and consumer spending, although investment and real estate sectors face pressure [1][14][19] 3. **Financial Indicators**: M1 data indicates improving economic activity, suggesting continued upward momentum in the stock market [1][15][16] 4. **PPI Recovery**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to stabilize, which will support corporate profit growth without strong inflation expectations, benefiting new industry investments [1][22][23] 5. **Key Factors for Index Growth**: Factors include increased intrinsic value of companies, development of eight major industry trends (AI, robotics, etc.), and a positive feedback mechanism from incremental capital inflow [5][6] 6. **Impact of US Tariffs**: Short-term psychological effects from US tariffs may impact A-shares, but long-term effects are limited as companies adjust supply chains [4][18] 7. **Investment Strategy**: A "left-dumbbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on high-quality growth stocks and major industry trends [7][36] 8. **Sector Focus**: High-growth sectors include TMT (technology, media, telecommunications), resilient export sectors, and consumer goods [8][34][35] 9. **Political and Economic Policy**: The political bureau meeting emphasized long-term planning and maintaining economic stability, with less focus on short-term stimulus [11][12] 10. **Market Performance**: The stock market's recent rise is attributed to stable profit growth and increased intrinsic value rather than significant profit increases [23][27] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Private Fund Growth**: The scale of private funds has been expanding, indicating improved risk appetite among investors [26][28] 2. **Foreign Investment Trends**: Continuous inflow of foreign capital into A-shares, with notable interest from high-net-worth individuals [27][30] 3. **Real Estate Sector**: While still a drag on the economy, the negative impact of the real estate sector is lessening [19] 4. **Industrial Price Trends**: The industrial price index is nearing a turning point, which could influence market dynamics in the coming years [20][21] 5. **Sector Rotation**: Historical data suggests a potential shift from growth sectors to cyclical sectors as PPI recovers [22][23] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market conditions and future expectations for the A-share and Hong Kong markets.

风险提示：国际地缘、贸易冲突超出预期；全球金融市场风险暴露；国内上市公司业绩增速回落超 预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 首先，上周市场围绕中美瑞典经贸会谈和国内下半年经济预期展开。美国对等关税事件在 5 月之后 逐渐走向缓和。一方面美国同英国、欧盟和其他国家的关税逐渐确定下来。另一方面，中美经历了三轮 经贸谈判，分歧得到一定的管控，非关税壁垒措施也有所减少或者取消。这些都成为近几个月市场回升 的主要推动因素。当然，随着谈判的深入，未来要再取得更大的成果，必定面临更大的困难和波折，特 别是在美国基本面逐步稳定下来，美元指数开始回升的阶段。下半年国内经济增速略有回落是市场共 识，但政策维稳工具丰富，将灵活应对各种挑战也是一致预期。 上周，两市先涨后跌，日均成交减少。沪指上周连续上涨后迎来调整，周三盘中创出年内高点后快 速调整，周五收盘跌破 5 天和 10天均线，收盘于 20 天均线上方。深圳成指同步调整，也在 20 天均线 上方止跌。量能方面，上周两市日均量能不到 18000 亿元，较上周出现小幅萎缩。上周市场热点主要集 中在医药和 TMT 行业。投资风格方面，中小盘相对抗跌。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指在冲击去年高点时 ...

Market Performance Review - The A-share market experienced a rise followed by a decline, with all major indices closing down after the Politburo meeting, where the CSI 1000 had the smallest drop of 0.54%, while the CSI A50 and CSI 300 fell by 2.48% and 1.75% respectively [3][12] - There was a noticeable divergence in market styles, with growth and consumption sectors experiencing smaller declines, while financial, stability, and cyclical styles saw significant pullbacks [3][12] - Mid-cap and small-cap indices outperformed large-cap indices during the week, with the NING and MAO indices, representing core assets and growth leaders, also declining, with the NING combination down 1.74% and the MAO index down 0.84% [3][12] Investor Sentiment and Market Outlook - The personal investor sentiment index has continued to decline, entering a negative zone, with the 7-day moving average reported at -0.42% as of August 2, down from 4.35% on July 26 [4][19] - The recent Politburo meeting did not indicate any large-scale stimulus plans, suggesting that the focus will shift back to demand recovery rather than potential supply-side reductions [4][32] - The current market dynamics indicate a potential vacuum in buying momentum, necessitating a cautious approach to investment strategies [4][32] Sector Analysis - The healthcare and communication sectors saw gains of over 2%, driven by significant partnerships and strong performance in the CPO sector, respectively, indicating a return to prosperity trading [15] - Conversely, sectors such as coal, non-ferrous metals, construction materials, and steel experienced substantial declines due to the withdrawal of "anti-involution" trading sentiment following policy announcements [15] Investment Strategy and Recommendations - The report emphasizes a return to prosperity trading, highlighting opportunities for valuation recovery in technology growth sectors, particularly in AI applications, computing power chains, and optical modules [5][33] - The fundamentals of innovative pharmaceuticals and CROs are showing signs of transformation, with continued trading logic for Chinese pharmaceuticals going overseas [5][33]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the overall market trend remains positive in the medium term, despite recent minor adjustments due to external events such as the Central Political Bureau meeting and U.S.-China trade negotiations [2][3][4] - The report recommends three main investment lines: strong growth in technology sectors such as AI, robotics, and military; sectors with economic support or performance exceeding expectations like rare earths, precious metals, and agricultural products; and structural policies in service consumption and real estate that may lead to valuation recovery opportunities [2][4][40] Group 2 - The report highlights that the recent adjustments in the "anti-involution" theme and real estate sectors were due to the Central Political Bureau meeting's outcomes being below market expectations, suggesting a potential correction phase for these sectors [5][18][19] - The technology sector has shown resilience, with several industries reaching new highs, indicating that the current technology market may continue to develop positively as key warning indicators have not yet been fully met [6][26][35] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring five warning indicators to assess the sustainability of the current technology market, including valuation percentiles and market breadth [26][35][38]

Group 1 - The market has experienced a slight pause after five consecutive weeks of growth, with new capital's marginal profit effect weakening. The financing balance growth rate in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is slowing down, indicating a neutral oscillation range of 7%-10% [2][12][13] - The report emphasizes that the current market structure is increasingly clear, driven by two main lines: the "anti-involution" leading to a cyclical and pro-cyclical trading PPI recovery, and the strong elasticity provided by global technology collaboration [2][12][58] Group 2 - The report identifies that despite the current low PPI levels, there is potential for marginal improvement due to a loose liquidity environment, which may accelerate valuation recovery. This is supported by two signals: the credit transmission providing leading signals for PPI recovery and the structural divergence between CRB and PPI [3][14][17] - The "anti-involution" policy has catalyzed a shift towards PPI trading, with core assets in cyclical consumption likely to experience valuation recovery, thus supporting the index [3][21][25] Group 3 - The TMT sector is highlighted as a core area for institutional long-term allocation, driven by a "fan effect" that attracts consensus among funds. The sector has shown significant trading activity, particularly in the communication sub-sector, which has gained traction as other sectors have seen a decline in trading volume [4][37][38] - The semiconductor industry is entering an upward phase, with conditions for transitioning from "expectation recovery" to "economic verification" being met. The report notes that the current semiconductor cycle is characterized by strong demand driven by AI and high-performance computing needs [4][47][49] Group 4 - The report suggests a strategic allocation in the current market environment, recommending a focus on technology, military, anti-involution, PPI diffusion directions, and stable dividends. Specific sectors include AI, robotics, semiconductors, and cyclical sectors like insurance and real estate, which are expected to benefit from PPI recovery [5][58]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities TMT Index has shown significant growth, with a year-to-date increase of 35.09%, reflecting strong performance in the TMT sector [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities TMT Index has increased by 5.12% over the past month and 15.24% over the last three months [1]. - The index was established on November 14, 2014, with a base point of 3000.0 [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The index comprises 50 listed companies in the TMT sector from the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with Tencent Holdings, Xiaomi Group-W, and China Mobile being the top three holdings [1]. - The top ten weightings in the index are as follows: Tencent Holdings (14.42%), Xiaomi Group-W (13.77%), China Mobile (13.69%), SMIC (8.44%), Kuaishou-W (7.88%), CK Hutchison (4.76%), Lenovo Group (3.01%), China Telecom (2.99%), Kingdee International (2.24%), and China Unicom (2.07%) [1]. Group 3: Market and Sector Breakdown - The index is exclusively composed of stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a 100% allocation [2]. - In terms of industry distribution, communication services account for 55.81% and information technology for 44.19% of the index [3]. Group 4: Index Adjustment Mechanism - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [3]. - Special adjustments may occur under certain circumstances, such as delisting or significant corporate actions [3].

Stock Market Performance - In July 2025, global stock markets rose, with the KOSPI increasing by over 5%, and the NASDAQ rising nearly 4%[4] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both saw monthly gains of nearly 3%[4] Hong Kong Stock Sector Performance - The healthcare sector surged by 22.8%, while the industrial and energy sectors also performed well with increases of 9.9% and 9.7% respectively[8] - The overall performance of the Hang Seng industry indices showed positive growth across all sectors in July 2025[8] IPO and Financing Overview - In July 2025, the Hong Kong IPO market saw 9 new listings, raising approximately HKD 17.63 billion, with a first-day loss rate of only 22.2%[13] - The major sectors for IPO financing included TMT, finance, consumer, and healthcare[13] - A total of 86 companies announced share placements in July, expected to raise around HKD 40.89 billion, primarily in the healthcare, TMT, and real estate sectors[13] U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims dropping to 217,000, marking a six-week decline[15] - Despite weak home sales, the median home price increased by 1.97% year-on-year, indicating price stability in the real estate market[15] China Economic Policies - China continues to implement policies to combat "involution," with new regulations in various sectors including agriculture and healthcare[16] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project has commenced, with a total investment of approximately CNY 1.2 trillion[16] - The AI industry is receiving new catalysts, with the government advocating for global cooperation in AI governance[16] Market Outlook - The U.S. economy shows resilience, with the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50%[18] - The Hong Kong market is expected to maintain an upward trend, supported by favorable domestic policies and improved U.S.-China relations[18] - Investment focus is recommended on technology assets, consumer sectors, and stable dividend-paying stocks[18]

Core Insights - Applied Digital (NASDAQ: APLD) stock is experiencing volatility ahead of its earnings call, with initial investor excitement following the announcement of the CoreWeave (CRWV) deal [1] Company Overview - The company has a focus on momentum in the technology landscape, particularly in navigating significant market events such as the dot com bubble, the credit default crisis of 2008, and the recent AI boom [1]