来源：市场资讯 （来源：FOF老码头） 回顾这一年，全球资本市场并非在一条叙事路径上展开，而是在剧烈的叙事切换中寻找平衡。从年初 对"特朗普经济学"的盲目押注，到年终对AI资本回报率的质疑；从美元信用的动摇，到黄金与白银史诗 级行情的爆发。市场在这一年里，深刻地体验了从"美国例外论"的幻灭到"资产再平衡"的颠簸过程。 第三季度：非理性繁荣与双轨制经济 第三季度市场动荡展示了全球经济与市场的不确定性，从AI信仰的狂热到降息的预期落地，从股市的 投机热潮到黄金的避险需求，市场呈现出多重背离的态势。一些投资者在宽松政策和技术繁荣的支持 下，疯狂追逐科技股，而黄金和债市则成为了"聪明资金"的避风港。随着美联储降息的实施和AI产业链 的持续扩张，市场或将迎来新一轮的调整和再平衡，未来的市场将充满更多不确定性和波动性。 7月：脱敏与亢奋 市场进入了一个非理性的"亢奋期"。尽管非农数据表现强劲，削弱了市场对美联储降息的紧迫预期，但 股市依旧在AI龙头公司的引领下，强势反弹。投资者对关税风险的敏感性减弱，尤其是在特朗普与欧 盟、日本达成贸易协议后，市场投机情绪升温。即使在全球贸易环境尚存不确定性，许多投资者依然处 于高度乐观 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has limited exposure to fluctuations in precious metal prices due to its hedging strategies, which mitigate risks associated with price volatility [2] Group 1: Company Strategy - The company employs a hedging strategy to minimize the impact of precious metal price fluctuations, primarily using the futures market for hedging [2] - When precious metal prices rise, the company may experience increased operational funding needs, leading to higher financial costs and expenses [2] - Conversely, if precious metal prices decline, the company faces limited losses from the unhedged portion of its precious metals [2]

（编辑 丛可心） 证券日报网讯 1月13日，贵研铂业在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司目前没有回购计划，但公司 一直以来高度重视市值管理相关工作，不断加强在价值创造、价值传递和价值实现三个主要阶段的工 作。聚焦贵金属主责主业，深耕三大核心产业板块。持续加强和改进投资者关系相关工作方式，全面客 观将贵金属产业价值有效向资本市场、广大投资者进行传递，促使投资者全面系统了解公司，了解贵金 属产业的价值。 ...

Group 1 - The global storage industry has entered a "super bull market" due to increased AI computing demand and server expansion, with storage prices expected to rise over 40% by Q4 2025 and an additional 40%-50% in Q1 2026, followed by a 20% increase in Q2 2026 [2][7] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has adjusted the margin rules for precious metals, linking margin requirements to nominal value percentages, which may pressure short positions in the short term but better capture margin demand [2][7] - The AI application sector has seen a surge, with the GEO concept emerging as a new focus, aimed at enhancing brand visibility in AI searches, indicating a promising industry outlook despite concerns over low-quality misuse [2][7] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market closed higher, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 reaching all-time highs, as investors overlook the potential impact of a criminal investigation into Powell, while anticipating a pause in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][8] - Moutai has lowered the payment prices for several products, including premium Moutai, to provide profit margins for distributors, reflecting a move towards a market-oriented pricing system [3][8] - The Japanese stock market surged over 3%, nearing the 54,000 mark, driven by expectations of expansionary fiscal policies ahead of potential early elections [3][8] - Foreign investment continues to favor Chinese assets, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising over 4% and Alibaba increasing by over 10%, indicating a positive outlook for the Chinese stock market [3][8] Group 3 - Lithium carbonate prices have surpassed 150,000 yuan per ton, with both spot and futures prices rising, attributed to adjustments in export tax policies for lithium batteries and increased inventory demand from downstream companies [4][9]

事实上，伴随火热上涨的行情，资金正在积极进场抢筹！数据显示，有色ETF华宝（159876）全天获资 金净申购5580万份！拉长时间来看，近10日狂揽3.11亿元！ 成份股方面，湖南白银一度涨停，午后虽有炸板，但收盘仍涨超7%，海亮股份、中矿资源涨逾5%，山 金国际、中孚实业、白银有色等个股跟涨。权重股方面，紫金矿业、山东黄金涨超2%，洛阳钼业、中 国铝业等个股收红。 | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日間 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 湖南白恨 | 7.64% | Harrison Market | 有色金属 | 贵金属 | 白假 | 2557 | 39.64Z | | 2 | 海亮股份 | 5.90% | 1 | 有色金属 | 工业金属 | 铜 | 3504Z | 16.73亿 | | 3 | 中矿 泡源 | 5.09% | | 有色会屈 | 小舍屋 | 其他小金属 | 6454Z | 33.13亿 | | 4 | 山舍国际 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a phase adjustment on January 13, ending a 17-day winning streak, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4138.76 points, down 0.64% [1][3] - Despite the pullback, trading volume remained robust, with total turnover in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets exceeding 3.69 trillion yuan, setting a new historical record [1][3] Sector Performance - Leading sectors during this period included artificial intelligence and commercial aerospace, with significant profit potential yet to be fully realized [1] - The number of stocks that rose exceeded 1600, with over 70 stocks hitting the daily limit up. The precious metals, medical services, mining, and biopharmaceutical sectors showed the highest gains, while aerospace, communication equipment, computer devices, shipbuilding, semiconductors, and electronic chemicals faced the largest declines [3][4] Individual Stock Highlights - Several stocks in the commercial aerospace sector experienced significant declines, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit down. Notably, companies in this sector have issued risk warning announcements recently [4][5] - Aerospace Development, focused on defense information technology and low-orbit satellite operations, reported that its revenue contribution from satellite operations is minimal, accounting for less than 1% of total revenue in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating limited impact on overall performance [5] Analyst Insights - Analysts from various brokerages noted that the market's concern remains around the adjustment risks following a sustained increase in trading volume. Historical trends suggest that significant volume increases often lead to market volatility, especially after a long winning streak [7] - Overall, the market is viewed as relatively healthy, with concentrated profit effects yet to fully diffuse. However, a potential shift in popular sectors may occur, leading to market fluctuations [7][8] - The technology growth sector is experiencing healthy rotation, while cyclical stocks like non-ferrous metals and chemicals are trending upward. Analysts recommend a cautious approach, focusing on structural investments while managing profit-taking strategies [8]

根据金融数据服务商东方财富的统计，贵金属板块当天上涨3.54%，领涨A股所有行业板块；该板块最 近三个交易日累计涨逾9%，跑赢同期上证指数。个股方面，除了停牌股，当天贵金属板块所有个股全 线飘红；其中，晓程科技、湖南白银、山金国际股价均涨逾4%。 消息面上，美联储主席鲍威尔近日发表声明对外证实，美国司法部已发出大陪审团传票，就美联储总部 大楼翻新工程有关问题对他发起刑事调查。 中新社北京1月13日电 (记者 陈康亮)中国A股13日终止此前连涨走势，主要股指悉数下跌，但贵金属板 块逆势上涨，成功实现"三连涨"。 中信期货分析师朱善颖表示，美国司法部近期对鲍威尔发出传票，增加了市场对美联储独立性受损风险 的忧虑，投资者关于流动性宽松的远期预期推动金银等贵金属价格上行。 就当天A股主要指数表现而言，截至收盘，上证指数报4138点，跌幅为0.64%；深证成指报14169点，跌 幅为1.37%；创业板指报3321点，跌1.96%。沪深两市成交额再度放量，全天成交总额约36511亿元人民 币，续创历史新高。(完) ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective pullback on January 13, ending a 17-day winning streak, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.64%, the Shenzhen Component down by 1.37%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.96% [1][2] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached a record high of 3.7 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Multiple companies issued risk warnings, leading to significant declines in sectors such as commercial aerospace and satellite internet, with nearly a hundred stocks, including Aerospace Electronics and China Satellite Communications, dropping over 8% [3] - The large aircraft and military sectors also saw declines, with stocks like Zhongtian Rocket and Leike Defense hitting their daily limit down [3] - The controllable nuclear fusion sector faced a downturn, with Wangzi New Materials hitting its daily limit down [3] - The communication equipment sector declined, with Changjiang Communication hitting its daily limit down [3] - Other sectors such as Beidou Navigation, quantum technology, 3D printing, CPO concepts, and F5G concepts experienced significant losses [3] Analyst Insights - Analyst Liu Hangdeng from Haineng Investment noted that after the 17-day rally, the market faced a volume adjustment of 3.65 trillion yuan, with commercial aerospace being the main sector under pressure [4] - The market encountered resistance near the 4180 level, indicating a short-term pullback, with support expected around the 4090 level [4] - The AI application sector, which had a strong performance previously, opened high but closed lower, although its structural trend and fundamental application logic remain strong [4] - The afternoon session saw a rapid surge in the electric power and grid equipment sector, indicating potential short-term opportunities [4] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices showed volatility, but precious metal stocks led gains in the non-ferrous metal sector, with Mingbai Jewelry hitting the daily limit up and Hunan Silver approaching the daily limit up [4] - As of the report, spot gold fell slightly below 4590 USD/ounce, while spot silver fell below 85 USD/ounce [4][5]

近期金融市场的焦点在于美联储独立性所面临的严峻挑战。相关资料显示，美联储主席鲍威尔已收到司 法部的传票，涉及此前关于办公大楼装修的证词，这一史无前例的法律行动被外界普遍视为政治压力干 预货币政策的信号。FXGT表示，这种政经博弈加剧了投资者对于政策稳定性的担忧，直接导致市场风 险偏好骤降。鲍威尔在声明中将此类威胁视为破坏美联储独立性的"借口"，这种对抗态势的升级，无疑 为避险资产注入了更多溢价空间。 1月13日，本周伊始，贵金属市场迎来了里程碑式的突破，黄金与白银价格在避险买盘的强力推动下双 双刷新历史纪录。FXGT认为，当前市场正处于多重风险叠加的敏感期，尤其是美联储内部罕见的司法 动荡与中东地缘政治的持续发酵，共同构筑了贵金属上涨的坚实底部。具体数据显示，2月黄金期货一 度飙升逾120美元，触及4627.10美元高位，而3月白银同样表现不俗，站稳86美元关口。 1月13日，本周伊始，贵金属市场迎来了里程碑式的突破，黄金与白银价格在避险买盘的强力推动下双 双刷新历史纪录。FXGT认为，当前市场正处于多重风险叠加的敏感期，尤其是美联储内部罕见的司法 动荡与中东地缘政治的持续发酵，共同构筑了贵金属上涨的坚实底部 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index ending a 17-day rally, closing down 0.64% at 4138.76 points, the Shenzhen Component down 1.37% at 14169.40 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.96% at 3321.89 points [2][4] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 36.991 trillion, an increase of 541 billion from the previous day, marking a historical high [2] Market Dynamics - The market saw a significant divergence after a rapid rise to around 4200 points, which is considered a normal phenomenon [3] - The recent consistent upward trend led to a highly uniform market expectation, making a trend reversal likely when consensus is reached [4] - The financial sector, including major banks and oil companies, provided support to the market, mitigating further declines in the Shanghai Composite Index [4][7] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector, previously very active, saw a full retreat due to mixed performance among stocks and many companies reporting losses [5] - The AI application sector also exhibited significant divergence, with some stocks like Yidian Tianxia seeing a peak increase of 20% before closing at a 10% gain, while others performed poorly [5][6] - Precious metals and energy metals sectors showed resilience with notable rebounds, while the healthcare sector remained strong across various subfields [6] Capital Flow - There was a significant outflow of capital from the market, with a net outflow of 180 billion, affecting stocks like Goldwind Technology and Aerospace Electronic [5][6] - The market did not experience panic selling despite the adjustments, attributed to the financial sector's protective measures [7]