[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 8 Jun 2025 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy 宽幅震荡升级在即，继续回避微盘股和新消费风险 Broad Consolidation About to Intensify; Remain Cautious on Micro-Caps and New Consumer Names 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们认为当前市场处于宽幅震荡中，回调仍未结束，尤其需要规避短期过热的A股小微盘股及港股新消费板 块。本周一，受中美贸易摩擦影响，恒生指数早盘一度跌近2.7%，恒生科技最多跌3.1%，两者从5月高点分别累计 回撤5.2%、8.9%。这波下跌充分释放了市场对中美贸易不确定性的担忧，因此市场进入宽幅震荡以来 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a cautious approach in the current market environment, suggesting a focus on defensive sectors such as banking due to ongoing tariff negotiations and economic pressures [3][10][12] - It highlights the potential for bond yields to reach new lows, recommending patience in positioning for left-side opportunities, particularly when the 10-year government bond yield approaches 1.7% after a 10 basis point rate cut [3][12] - The report notes a significant recovery in the domestic stock market, driven by short-term high-elasticity targets, with small-cap stocks becoming the core focus for capital [10][12] Group 2 - The report outlines key events impacting the market, including the U.S. tariff increase on steel and aluminum, and the People's Bank of China's liquidity support measures [9][10] - It tracks market performance indicators, noting a rise in average daily trading volume to 12,088.54 billion yuan, indicating increased trading activity and investor interest [22] - The report anticipates continued recovery in U.S. markets, driven by stable earnings from tech giants and a favorable environment during the tariff policy window [13]

作者丨黎曼 来源丨 投中网 投资后期的资金开始活跃了。 一切从港股IPO火热说起。2025年以来，香港新股集资额超过760亿港元，较去年同期增加超过7倍， 并已达到去年全年新股集资总额接近九成。其中令人刮目相看的是新消费行业，尤其是蜜雪冰城、泡 泡玛特、老铺黄金"港股三姐妹"这样千亿市值的企业。它们的崛起打破了港股长期由科技与金融主导 的格局，标志着中国消费品牌的价值正被国际资本重新定义。 在此背景之下，不止一位投资人向我透露，目前正密切关注消费领域的后期项目，主要原因便是消费 股的亮眼表现，所以打算布局一个Pre-IPO项目。尽管投资意愿强烈，但也有投资人对Pre-IPO项目 有明确要求：餐饮类不在其考虑范围内，而是将目光更聚焦于潮玩方向。 此前，泡泡玛特、卡游、布鲁可等潮玩企业交出的成绩单远超预期，最近也有铜师傅、52talk等潮玩 类企业冲击港股IPO。其高毛利、低研发投入、强劲现金流的财务模式，精准契合了后期投资者对资 金安全与稳定回报的追求。 这里多提一句：现在VC们越来越对"IP经济"的潮玩类项目青眼有加了，就连科技方向的VC都开始眼 馋。科技投资人John就曾告诉我说，随着VC行业的范式变化，已 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong stocks have significantly outperformed A-shares this year, reflecting the attractiveness of scarce assets in a weak macroeconomic environment, similar to the rise of Hong Kong stocks during the mobile internet wave from 2012 to 2014 [1][3][5] Performance Comparison - Since the beginning of the year, the Hang Seng Index has increased by 19%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 21 percentage points. Key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, technology, and consumer goods have shown even greater gains, with pharmaceuticals outperforming A-shares by 29 percentage points [4][10] - The performance of Hong Kong stocks can be divided into two phases: the first quarter saw a surge in technology stocks driven by AI applications, while the consumer sector has shown strong performance since April, with notable stocks reaching historical highs [4][10] Scarcity of Assets - The outperformance of Hong Kong stocks is attributed to the unique advantages of certain assets, particularly in the context of AI applications and new consumption trends. Scarce assets are concentrated in sectors such as internet, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and dividends [5][10] - In the internet sector, software services and media account for 55% of the total market capitalization in Hong Kong, compared to only 24% in A-shares, highlighting the concentration of major internet players like Tencent and Alibaba in the Hong Kong market [10][11] - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong has over 60% market capitalization in retail and consumer services, while A-shares only account for about 10%. This is driven by the presence of major e-commerce players like Meituan and JD.com in Hong Kong [11] - In the pharmaceutical sector, biotechnology and medical technology account for 40% of the market capitalization in Hong Kong, compared to 24% in A-shares, indicating a higher level of innovation in Hong Kong stocks [12] Future Outlook - The recovery of the fundamental and funding environment is expected to drive further upward movement in Hong Kong stocks. Positive factors are accumulating, including a more proactive policy stance and increased foreign investment in Chinese assets [21][22] - The Hang Seng Technology Index is particularly noteworthy, with a current PE ratio of 20.7, indicating a favorable valuation compared to global standards. This sector is expected to benefit from the ongoing AI-driven industrial transformation [22]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the investment strategy focusing on the "smile curve" in the consumer sector, with attention on mass consumer goods represented by soft drinks on the left end and new consumption trends on the right end [1] - The current A-share market is transitioning from the technology growth phase to the domestic consumption phase, with significant movements in sectors such as banking, technology, and consumer goods [1] - The Hong Kong market has seen a rise in new consumption stocks characterized by a "self-indulgent" attribute, driven by themes of technological advancement and growth opportunities [1] Group 2 - The report identifies sectors with strong industry barriers under the current uncertain overseas trade environment, including chemical raw materials, biomedicine, and electronic chemicals, which have shown resilience during trade tensions [2] - There is a notable increase in merger and acquisition activities, with nearly 2,500 announcements in the first five months, particularly in emerging industries like machinery, electronics, and biomedicine [2] - The report suggests that domestic high-end manufacturing and innovative pharmaceuticals are likely to benefit from synergistic effects through industry consolidation [2] Group 3 - The report highlights a mixed economic outlook in the U.S., with inflation pressures easing but consumer confidence under significant strain, indicating potential challenges for future economic growth [3] - The U.S. service sector PMI fell below the growth line, suggesting a "stagflation" scenario that limits the Federal Reserve's ability to ease monetary policy [3] Group 4 - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar, supported by strong fundamentals and a tightening monetary policy environment in Japan [4] - It notes that the Japanese stock market is in a long-term allocation range, but rising interest rates could pressure corporate profits, especially for companies with significant overseas revenue [4] - The report warns of potential upward risks in Japanese government bond yields as the Bank of Japan normalizes its monetary policy [4]

Group 1 - The recent phone call between the two national leaders had a minimal impact on the capital market, with A50 futures only moving from -0.13% to 0.24%, a mere 0.37 percentage points [1] - The A-share market continues to experience narrow fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a four-day cumulative increase of only 1.13%, struggling to surpass the 3400-point mark [3] - Silver has seen significant gains, with the "Guotou Silver LOF" rising by 4.68% today, totaling an 8.2% increase over recent days, while gold ETFs only increased by 1.52% [5] Group 2 - The supply shortage is a key factor driving the rise in silver prices, with the World Platinum Investment Council predicting a 30-ton shortage in the platinum market for 2025, and silver also facing supply issues [6] - The "gold-silver ratio" is undergoing a correction, currently at 92.7, indicating that silver may offer better value compared to gold at this time [7] - There are limited investment options for silver, with the "Guotou Silver LOF" underperforming its benchmark, and trading silver futures requiring significant capital, making it less accessible for small investors [9] Group 3 - The new consumption sector appears to be facing challenges, with stocks like "Mizuki Ice City" and "Old Peking Gold" experiencing significant declines [11] - The market capitalization of new consumption companies has reached levels that seem unreasonable, with "Bubble Mart" surpassing the combined market cap of major toy companies [13] - Traditional consumption sectors, such as liquor, are also struggling, with the liquor index showing a maximum drawdown of 57.76%, comparable to previous downturns [29] Group 4 - Public fund holdings in the liquor sector have decreased significantly, with the proportion dropping from 8.48% in Q4 2020 to 3.71% in Q1 2023, indicating a shift in investment sentiment [16][17] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the liquor index is 18.87, which is at a level similar to the end of 2018, but the sustainability of this valuation is questioned due to potential future earnings stagnation [23][31] - The liquor index has maintained a dividend yield of 4.2%, suggesting that even with a significant price drop, the yield could remain attractive, raising questions about the likelihood of such a decline [31]

点击图片查看完整路演回放↑↑↑ 6月4日，我们非常荣幸地邀请到了深圳市日斗投资管理有限公司的创始人、董事长王文先生做客私募排排网直播间， 王总深入剖析了当前资本 市场的关键趋势， 从人工智能产业的突破性进展，到港股市场的投资机会，再到消费行业的价值挖掘， 为我们带来了一场精彩纷呈的投资盛 宴。王总特别提到"期待中国股票市场的DeepSeek崛起时刻"，这一新颖比喻引发了广泛共鸣。以下小编整理出来的直播精华片段： （ 点击图片 查看完整直播回放 ） Q：王总，您近期提到"期待中国股票市场的DeepSeek崛起时刻"，这个比喻非常新颖，能否请您解释一下，什么是"DeepSeek崛起时刻"？ （ 点 击蓝字查看完整直播回放 ） 王文：今年春节期间，市场对贸易战的担忧情绪较为浓厚。与此同时，Deepseek公司的崛起改变了市场对中国人工智能产业的认知。此前普遍 认为中国人工智能技术与美国存在十年以上的差距，数字鸿沟难以逾越 。但Deepseek的出现证明中美技术差距远比预期要小，这显著增强了市 场对中国科技实力的信心。 从供给端观察，在A股IPO节奏调整的背景下，港股市场承接了大量内地优质企业的上市需求，为投资者提供 ...

Core Viewpoint - A-shares continue to rebound in May, supported by a series of favorable policies, with a recommendation for fund allocation to maintain a balanced style while slightly favoring growth and focusing on fund managers' stock selection and risk control capabilities [1][2]. Fund Investment Strategy - In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with the levels of the past three years. The internal resolution of low inflation is crucial, as external factors are less significant due to China's manufacturing competitiveness [2]. - The strategy team believes that emerging technology remains a long-term mainstay in the A-share market, while cyclical finance may become a dark horse. Additionally, cyclical products with improved competitive dynamics and tight supply-demand logic, as well as new consumption areas driven by demand and innovation, are also worth attention [2]. - The market structure of value and growth styles will likely continue to present structural investment opportunities in 2024, suggesting a slight preference for growth in fund allocation while maintaining overall balance [2]. Bond Funds - June is a critical transition period for strategies, recommending a combination of liquidity and yield in position selection, and to prepare for the next round of interest rate declines by switching to more liquid varieties [3]. - With the recovery of the equity market, fixed income plus funds also hold certain allocation value, warranting continued attention [3]. QDII and Commodity Funds - Global central banks' gold purchasing behavior reflects a long-term and ongoing trend, indicating a restructuring of the global monetary system due to changes in trust foundations [3]. - The rise of trade protectionism and the restructuring of the global economy will increase economic differentiation, supporting residents' demand for gold [3]. - The current gold bull market is characterized by different driving factors and pricing frameworks, suggesting a potentially long cycle for the bull market, thus recommending appropriate allocation to gold ETFs from a long-term and hedging investment perspective [3].

Market Overview - The trading volume in the A-share market was 1.29 trillion yesterday, indicating that the market could continue to rise due to new capital influx. However, today's volume dropped to 1.5 trillion, suggesting a return to a stagnant trading environment post-holiday [1] - The market is currently experiencing low volatility, with most stocks fluctuating within a narrow range of +1% to -1%, and very few stocks showing movements exceeding 3% [1][3] - Compared to last year, the current market activity is even quieter than before the National Day holiday, raising concerns about the disconnect between market sentiment and actual performance [1] Trading Data Analysis - The number of stocks with a price increase of over 3% is only 358 out of more than 5400 stocks, while 260 stocks have declined by over 3%, indicating a lack of significant market movement [3] - The buying power today was recorded at over 400, returning to the lowest levels seen in recent statistics, despite the index showing a four-day upward trend [3] - The selling pressure remains consistent, with over 200 recorded, suggesting that if the market fails to break upward, short-term investors may start to realize profits, leading to potential selling [3] Sector Performance - The market saw a notable presence of ST (special treatment) stocks, which dominated the top gainers list, indicating a defensive stance from major funds [5] - The lack of strong sector performance is evident, with only a few sectors like computing power and innovative pharmaceuticals showing limited gains, while the majority of stocks are not participating in a collective upward movement [5][6] - The current market environment suggests that if conditions worsen, leading stocks may become safer as major funds are unable to offload their positions in a weak market [5] Conclusion - The overall market sentiment appears optimistic based on external reports, yet the actual trading data reflects a more cautious and stagnant environment, highlighting a potential misalignment between perception and reality [1][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trend of A-share companies accelerating their plans to list in Hong Kong, marking a shift from the previous "H to A" trend to "A to H" listings, driven by various factors including market conditions and corporate strategies [2][3]. Group 1: A-share Companies' Move to Hong Kong - As of the end of May, nearly 50 A-share companies have disclosed plans to list in Hong Kong, with over 20 having submitted materials or received approval [3]. - The acceleration of A-share companies going public in Hong Kong is attributed to the internationalization of the Hong Kong market, its efficient financing capabilities, and the companies' own global strategies and risk diversification needs [3]. - The surge in Hong Kong IPOs this year is seen as a result of policy benefits, market environment, and corporate strategies, with Hong Kong becoming a key hub for global financing for domestic quality enterprises [3]. Group 2: Price Discrepancies Between A-shares and H-shares - Historically, H-shares have often traded at a discount compared to A-shares, but recent instances, such as the case of Ningde Times, have shown H-shares trading at a premium, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5]. - The differences in pricing between A-shares and H-shares are attributed to variations in market structure and investor composition, with some high-quality companies experiencing periods where H-shares are more expensive than A-shares [5]. - The liquidity in the Hong Kong market has significantly improved, as evidenced by the recent "inversion" where H-shares surpassed A-shares in price [5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Hong Kong - The influx of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong is expected to enhance liquidity, improve financing functions, and attract more international capital, injecting new vitality into the Hong Kong market [7]. - Three key investment directions in the Hong Kong market are identified: 1. Technology giants benefiting from AI industry catalysts, particularly in the internet sector, which is expected to see continued growth due to favorable policies and technological advancements [7]. 2. The innovative pharmaceutical sector, which has shown strong performance this year, particularly in the context of innovation, healthcare, and international expansion [7]. 3. New consumption trends driven by technological advancements, focusing on emotional value and personalized experiences, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [7].