Core Viewpoint - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is particularly significant as it will be the first data released on time after the government shutdown, with mixed signals from previous employment data creating uncertainty in the market [1][6]. Employment Data - The previous non-farm report showed an unexpected increase of 64,000 jobs, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest in four years, indicating a paradox where job growth exists but job searching has become more difficult [1][3]. - Economists predict around 73,000 new jobs for December, with a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.5%, although some institutions remain less optimistic, suggesting the rate may stay at 4.6% [3][5]. - Initial jobless claims were reported at 208,000, slightly below expectations, indicating no significant layoffs, while continuing claims rose to 1.914 million, suggesting increased difficulty in finding new jobs [6][8]. Market Reactions - The rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to 4.18% has created anxiety among investors, as higher yields typically pressure gold prices due to the comparative attractiveness of interest-bearing assets [3][12]. - The current economic environment is characterized by a cooling job market and a lack of clear direction in interest rates, making it challenging for gold to establish a strong upward trend [10][12]. Investor Sentiment - Consumer sentiment reflects rising inflation expectations at 3.4%, while confidence in job opportunities has dropped to the lowest level since the survey began, indicating a growing concern about the economic outlook [8][10]. - Investors are advised to consider their motivations for holding gold, as the current market volatility may not align with short-term speculative strategies but could serve as a hedge in uncertain times [12].

Group 1: BW Industrial Holdings - BW Industrial Holdings is a US-based engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) company specializing in the design, construction, and integration of critical process systems for various industrial sectors [2] - The company's EPC business model involves serving international companies looking to establish and expand production operations in the US [2] - BW Industrial Holdings is expanding its client base to include more domestic and overseas companies with similar technical and project execution needs [2] - The company provides compliance solutions for clients seeking comprehensive EPC services in North America from its headquarters in Houston, Texas [2] Group 2: Eddid Financial - Eddid Financial is a Hong Kong-based financial group focused on fintech, offering a wide range of services including fintech, internet finance, wealth management, asset management, investment banking, and digital assets [3] - The group holds multiple licenses in major financial markets, including various regulated activities licenses issued by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission [3] - Eddid Financial's US subsidiary, Eddid Securities USA Inc., is a registered broker-dealer with the SEC and CFTC, and is a member of FINRA, NFA, SIPC, NASDAQ, NYSE, and NYSE American [4] - Eddid USA provides investment banking services and related products in the US, as well as online self-service retail securities account services [4]

Core Viewpoint - By 2026, foreign market makers are expected to account for 50% of the trading volume of mainland China-listed ETFs, a significant increase from 33% in Q2 2025, driven by ample liquidity and high asset turnover rates [1]. Group 1: Participation of Foreign Market Makers - Foreign market makers are increasingly active in the mainland ETF market, with at least one foreign market maker among the top ten holders of 356 ETFs as of Q2 2025 [4]. - The number of ETFs traded by foreign market makers could reach approximately 500, as some institutions engage in intraday trading [4]. - The expected participation of foreign market makers in 2026 is projected to be at least 50%, translating to around 700 ETFs [4]. Group 2: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - The mainland China ETF market is the second most liquid globally, following the U.S., with asset turnover rates of 12.7 times in 2025, significantly higher than the U.S. [6]. - Jane Street and Optiver are among the first foreign market makers to enter the mainland market, with Citadel, Virtu, and IMC expected to start operations in 2026 [6]. Group 3: Impact on Trading Efficiency - Increased participation of foreign market makers is anticipated to narrow the bid-ask spreads of ETFs, enhancing trading efficiency [9]. - As of December last year, foreign market makers accounted for approximately 70% of trading in mainland-listed Hong Kong stock ETFs and about 90% in other cross-border ETFs, leading to reduced average bid-ask spreads of 12 basis points and 7 basis points, respectively [9]. Group 4: Leading Institutions - Jane Street, Optiver, Susquehanna, Eclipse, and Hudson River Trading (HRT) are among the largest holders of mainland-listed ETFs, with their holdings significantly increasing in recent years [9].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is expected to show moderate growth in December, which may instill some confidence in investors for the new year, but it is not enough to cause excessive market excitement [2] Employment Data Summary - The consensus forecast predicts an addition of 60,000 non-farm jobs in December, with the unemployment rate slightly decreasing to 4.5%. The range for job additions is between 25,000 and 155,000, highlighting uncertainty in hiring conditions [2] - If the forecast is accurate, the job addition will be a slight increase compared to the average monthly addition of 55,000 jobs from January to November 2025, and slightly higher than the preliminary figure of 64,000 jobs in November [2] - The unemployment rate is currently 0.5 percentage points higher than at the beginning of 2025, indicating a divergence between job growth and unemployment rate trends [2][4] Market Impact - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is crucial for influencing Federal Reserve policy expectations and may lead to significant fluctuations in stock, bond, currency, and precious metal markets [2] - A weak non-farm employment report could reinforce market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, likely leading to a weaker dollar and a potential initial rebound in U.S. stocks, followed by renewed concerns about economic growth [2][3] - Conversely, a strong non-farm report would weaken the market's rate cut bets, support the dollar, and potentially suppress U.S. stock valuations [3] Labor Market Indicators - The recent JOLTS report indicated a significant decline in job vacancies, which is a leading indicator of future hiring intentions. This decline suggests a weakening demand for labor and supports the expectation of weak job additions in December [5] - The ongoing decrease in the labor turnover rate indicates that employees are less confident in external job opportunities, further signaling a cooling labor market [5] Data Revisions - Experienced traders recognize that revisions to previous months' employment data can significantly alter market perceptions of labor market strength. A substantial downward revision of October and November's job additions could paint a more severe picture of the employment landscape than the December figures alone suggest [6] - Historical trends show that conflicting signals between initial and revised non-farm data often lead to market volatility [6] Future Employment Outlook - Economists generally expect the U.S. labor market to stabilize in 2026, with a more optimistic outlook compared to the beginning of 2025. There are signs of improved hiring activity and a slowdown in layoffs [7] - The employment market is anticipated to remain within a moderate range, with fluctuations expected but overall resilience confirmed [7] - The focus for 2026 will also be on employee retention strategies, as employers prioritize retaining existing staff over aggressive hiring or layoffs [8]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for December is expected to shift market focus back to economic data and interest rate outlooks, following a period of geopolitical concerns [2][17]. Employment Data Summary - The U.S. job market shows signs of weakness, with November job openings dropping to 7.15 million, the lowest in 14 months, resulting in a ratio of 0.91 job openings per unemployed person, the lowest since March 2021 [3][17]. - The ADP report indicates that 41,000 private sector jobs were added in December, which is above the previous value but slightly below expectations, with four instances of negative growth since June [3][17]. - Initial jobless claims rose slightly to 208,000, up from 200,000, although the four-week average has significantly decreased [3][17]. Market Expectations - The market anticipates an addition of 60,000 jobs in the upcoming non-farm report, down from a previous value of 64,000, with the unemployment rate expected to decrease from 4.6% to 4.5% [3][17]. - Hourly wage growth is projected to rise to 3.6% [3][17]. Federal Reserve Perspective - The Federal Reserve acknowledges the downward risks in the job market, maintaining a forecast for one rate cut this year, although there are significant divisions among market participants [5][19]. - The interest rate market is leaning towards a more dovish stance, betting on two rate cuts this year, with an 86% probability that the January meeting will not result in a rate change [5][19]. Market Reactions - Traders are adopting a cautious approach ahead of the non-farm report, with both stock markets and precious metals slowing their upward momentum [5][19]. - If the employment data falls short of expectations, it could heighten rate cut anticipations, benefiting risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, while gold and silver may aim for historical highs [5][19]. - Conversely, a strong report could lead to a rebound in the U.S. dollar index [5][19].

Core Viewpoint - The economic outlook for China in 2025 is expected to show steady progress, with a focus on high-quality development and structural optimization, as indicated by the Chief Economist Confidence Index of 50.32 for January 2026, reflecting a recovery from the previous month [1][4]. Economic Indicators - The average forecast for December 2025 CPI year-on-year growth is 0.8%, slightly higher than the previous month's 0.7% [8][10]. - The average forecast for December 2025 PPI year-on-year growth is -2.0%, an improvement from -2.2% in the previous month [8][10]. - The average forecast for December 2025 industrial added value year-on-year growth is 4.9%, up from 4.8% in November [13]. - The average forecast for December 2025 fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth is -2.2%, an improvement from -2.6% in November [14]. - The average forecast for December 2025 social retail sales year-on-year growth is 1.8%, with a range from 0.6% to 4.9% [10][11]. - The average forecast for December 2025 trade surplus is $1113.5 billion, slightly lower than the previous month's $1116.8 billion [17]. - The average forecast for December 2025 new loans is 7182.5 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous month's 3900 billion yuan [19]. - The average forecast for December 2025 total social financing is 1.8 trillion yuan, down from 2.5 trillion yuan in November [21]. - The average forecast for December 2025 M2 year-on-year growth is 8%, consistent with the previous month's figure [21][23]. - As of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves are expected to be $33579 billion, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month [23]. Policy Outlook - The macroeconomic policy for 2026 is expected to be more proactive, with an increase in fiscal deficit and government debt issuance to support economic growth [25][27]. - Monetary policy is anticipated to remain accommodative, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to ensure liquidity and lower financing costs [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - Goldwind Technology (金风科技) shares rose over 14% during trading, currently up 7.2% at HKD 17.28, with a trading volume of HKD 2.339 billion [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Blue Arrow Aerospace recently submitted its prospectus to the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, indicating that Goldwind's subsidiary, Jianghan Asset, holds a 4.14% stake in Blue Arrow, making it the sixth largest shareholder [1] - Daiwa upgraded Goldwind's H-share rating from "Hold" to "Outperform" based on potential investment returns supporting short-term profitability [1] Group 2: Market Impact - The proposed IPO of SpaceX may drive significant revaluation, further influencing Goldwind's stock performance [1] - The target price for Goldwind's H-shares has been raised from HKD 13 to HKD 17 [1]

Global Climate Governance - The current global climate funding gap is significant, with developing countries needing approximately $215 billion to $387 billion annually for adaptation, while public funding only reaches $23 billion to $30 billion, less than one-tenth of the required amount [2] - Disagreements between developed and developing countries regarding funding responsibilities and technology transfer remain unresolved, complicating climate financing mechanisms [2] COP30 Key Outcomes and Funding Mechanism Breakthroughs - COP30 achieved structural progress in several areas, despite ongoing disagreements on fossil fuel issues, establishing new directions for global climate governance [3] - A significant breakthrough in climate funding mechanisms was reached, with an agreement to triple global climate adaptation funding by 2035 and a new "Tropical Forest Forever Fund" initiated by Brazil, aiming for a target size of $125 billion [4] - The establishment of the "Belém Action Mechanism" (BAM) marks the first inclusion of "just transition" in the UNFCCC framework, providing institutional support for affected industries and communities during energy transitions [5] - COP30 initiated the transition of global carbon markets from rule-making to infrastructure connectivity, promoting technical cooperation among countries on carbon market standards [6][7] China's Green Finance Strategy - China announced a new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target, committing to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 10% by 2035, enhancing transparency and demonstrating responsibility in global climate governance [8] - The green finance system in China is maturing, with a multi-layered policy framework established since 2016, leading to a significant increase in green loans and investments in energy transition and ecological protection [9] - The green bond market in China is expanding, with cumulative issuance exceeding 4 trillion yuan, primarily funding clean energy and green infrastructure projects [10] Hong Kong's Role in Green Finance - Hong Kong is positioning itself as an international green finance hub, with significant growth in green and sustainable debt issuance, reaching approximately $84.4 billion in 2024 [18] - The regulatory framework for green finance in Hong Kong is advancing, with the introduction of a sustainable finance classification directory and enhanced disclosure requirements for listed companies [16][25] - Hong Kong is leveraging its offshore RMB center advantage to attract international investments in green bonds, enhancing the appeal of "green RMB" products [17][18] Collaboration Between Mainland China and Hong Kong - The collaboration between Mainland China and Hong Kong in green finance is evolving towards a three-tiered integration of products, standards, and platforms [20] - The mutual accessibility of green financial products, including green bonds and transition finance, is expected to enhance cross-border capital flows [21] - Joint efforts in standardization and information disclosure are underway, with both regions working towards a unified green finance classification system [24][25] - Infrastructure connectivity is being established to facilitate cross-border green capital movement, addressing challenges in regulatory recognition and environmental impact verification [26][27]

Group 1 - Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) has provided a $1.5 billion debt financing solution for Saks Fifth Avenue [1]

Group 1 - The latest price of February gold futures is $4481.00 per ounce, down $6.90 from the previous close, reflecting a decline of 0.16% [1] - The trading range for the day is between $4485 and $4493.7 per ounce, with an opening price of $4489.30, which is higher than the previous close of $4487.90 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for December 2025 is expected to show an increase of approximately 60,000 jobs, with an average hourly wage growth of 0.3% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, while the unemployment rate is projected to slightly decrease to 4.5% [3] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to pause interest rate cuts this month unless there is a negative job growth or the unemployment rate rises above 4.7% [3] - The report's release may be overshadowed by a Supreme Court ruling on Trump's "emergency" tariffs, potentially limiting immediate market volatility [3] Group 3 - February gold futures closed at $4436.00 per ounce, significantly down from $4475.6, indicating a short-term correction phase [4] - The price has effectively broken below the upper Bollinger Band, with the RSI falling to around 50, shifting from a neutral to a balanced state [4] - Despite the significant increase in actual non-farm payroll data to 1.369 million, which exceeded the expected 690,000, gold prices did not experience dramatic fluctuations as the market had already priced in the positive news [4] - Major institutions like Goldman Sachs, UBS, and JPMorgan maintain a target price for 2026 between $4900 and $5055, driven by ongoing central bank gold purchases and expectations of Fed rate cuts [4]