有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/10/10 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/09/25 40 2382 105814 27662 -745.90 -123.95 53.0 58.0 -31.55 144425 11400 2025/09/26 -5 2337 98779 26557 -652.74 127.20 53.0 58.0 -38.91 144400 10325 2025/09/29 -15 2077 98779 25603 -898.28 192.48 53.0 57.0 -29.22 143900 9875 2025/09/30 20 2562 98779 26823 -295.06 8.95 50.0 54.0 -42.98 143400 9675 2025/10/09 20 2547 98779 29703 -968.44 -243.65 49.0 53.0 -24.90 139475 8425 变化 0 -15 ...

Core Insights - The article provides an overview of the performance of various mutual funds, highlighting the top and bottom performers based on net asset value updates as of October 9, 2025 [3][4]. Fund Performance Summary - The top 10 funds with the highest net value growth include: 1. China Europe Resource Selection Mixed Fund A (1.7106) 2. China Europe Resource Selection Mixed Fund B (1.7097) 3. Qianhai Kaiyuan Core Resource Mixed Fund C (5.1280) 4. Qianhai Kaiyuan Core Resource Mixed Fund A (5.1800) 5. Gold Stock ETF (2.1608) 6. Wanjia Cycle Vision Stock Fund A (1.1811) 7. Wanjia Cycle Vision Stock Fund C (1.1807) 8. Great Wall Value Selection One-Year Holding Mixed Fund A (1.3218) 9. Guotai Zhongzheng Gold Industry Stock ETF (1.7048) 10. Great Wall Value Selection One-Year Holding Mixed Fund C (1.2854) [3][4]. - The bottom 10 funds with the lowest net value growth include: 1. AVIC Preferred Navigation Mixed Fund C (1.8724) 2. AVIC Preferred Navigation Mixed Fund A (1.8814) 3. Great Wall Health Mixed Fund C (0.9919) 4. Great Wall Health Mixed Fund A (1.0224) 5. Great Wall Pharmaceutical Technology Six-Month Mixed Fund C (0.8284) 6. Great Wall Pharmaceutical Technology Six-Month Mixed Fund A (0.8466) 7. Ping An Hong Kong Stock Medical Innovation Selected Mixed Fund A (1.1783) 8. Ping An Hong Kong Stock Medical Innovation Selected Mixed Fund C (1.1767) 9. Yinhua Growth Smart Selected Mixed Fund C (1.0853) 10. Yinhua Growth Smart Selected Mixed Fund A (1.0871) [4]. Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index opened high and showed a strong upward trend, while the ChiNext Index experienced a slight pullback. The total trading volume reached 2.67 trillion yuan, with a stock rise-to-fall ratio of 3115:2186 [6]. - The leading sectors included non-ferrous metals and mineral products, both showing gains exceeding 4%, while tourism, hotel catering, and media entertainment sectors faced declines of over 2% [6]. Fund Holdings Overview - The top holdings of the China Europe Resource Selection Mixed Fund include: 1. Zijin Mining (9.99% daily increase, 10.72% of net assets) 2. China Hongqiao (9.46% of net assets) 3. Shandong Gold (8.07% of net assets) 4. China Rare Earth (9.97% daily increase, 6.15% of net assets) 5. China Aluminum (6.00% of net assets) - The fund's top ten holdings account for 64.29% of total holdings, indicating a focus on resource industries [7]. - The top holdings of the AVIC Preferred Navigation Mixed Fund include: 1. Yiqi Hong (12.14% of net assets) 2. Rongchang Bio (11.63% of net assets) 3. Rejing Bio (11.33% of net assets) - The fund's top ten holdings account for 95.17% of total holdings, reflecting a clear focus on the pharmaceutical industry [7].

格隆汇10月9日丨江西铜业股份(00358.HK)公告，公司股票价格于2025年9月29日、9月30日、10月9日连 续三个交易日内日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计达到20%。根据上海证券交易所的相关规定，属于股票交易 异常波动情形。 公司核查发现的事项：经公司董事会自查及发函问询控股股东，截至本公告披露日，不存在应披露而未 披露的重大信息。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The main market saw a net outflow of 255.37 billion yuan, with the ChiNext board experiencing a net outflow of 121.83 billion yuan and the CSI 300 index seeing a net outflow of 137.82 billion yuan [1] - Among 23 industries, the non-ferrous metals sector had the highest increase at 7.6%, while steel and coal industries also saw gains of over 3% [1] - Six industries received net inflows from main funds, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading at 9.65 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - ZTE Corporation, a leading communication stock, saw a net inflow of 30.24 billion yuan, closing up 9.51% after ranking first in the GAIA evaluation [2] - Hikvision, a security leader, had a net inflow of 13.76 billion yuan, announcing a cash dividend of 36.66 billion yuan [2] - Other notable stocks with significant net inflows included BYD, Vision China, and Shanghai Electric, each exceeding 4 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Fund Outflows - Over 150 stocks experienced net outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Sunshine Power, New Yisheng, and Oriental Fortune seeing outflows over 10 billion yuan [3] - The optical module leader, Zhongji Xuchuang, had the highest net outflow at 5 billion yuan [8] Group 4: Sector-Specific Trends - The rare earth sector saw significant buying interest, with North Rare Earth and Jinchuan Magnetics receiving net inflows of 2.65 billion yuan and 1.46 billion yuan, respectively [5] - The rare earth sector's rise was influenced by new export control measures announced by the Ministry of Commerce, aimed at safeguarding national security [6]

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Jiang Lei, the general manager and board member of China Nonferrous Metal Construction Co., Ltd., is due to work adjustments, and he will no longer hold any positions within the company or its subsidiaries [1][3]. Group 1 - Jiang Lei submitted his resignation letter to the board on October 9, 2025, and his resignation will take effect upon delivery to the board [3]. - Jiang Lei held multiple positions, including director, strategic committee member, legal committee member, and general manager, and his original term was set from December 25, 2024, to December 24, 2027 [3]. - The board expressed gratitude for Jiang Lei's contributions during his tenure, noting his diligence and commitment to the company's operations and development [3]. Group 2 - The resignation will not result in the board falling below the legal minimum number of members and will not affect the company's normal operations and management [3].

格隆汇10月9日｜江西铜业公告，股票价格于2025年9月29日、9月30日、10月9日连续三个交易日内日收 盘价格涨幅偏离值累计达到20%，属于股票交易异常波动情形。公司核查发现的事项：经公司董事会自 查及发函问询控股股东，截至本公告披露日，不存在应披露而未披露的重大信息。经公司自查，公司目 前生产经营活动一切正常。近期，公司主产品中阴极铜、黄金的市场价格累计涨幅较大。公司目前尚未 发现可能或已经对公司股票交易价格产生影响的媒体报道或市场传闻和涉及热点概念的事项。 ...

Core Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index opened high and broke through the 3900-point mark, reaching its highest level since August 2015, with a trading volume of 2.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 471.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][7] - The market saw active rotation of hotspots, with 99 stocks hitting the daily limit up, particularly in the metals and nuclear power sectors [1][2] - The nuclear fusion sector experienced significant gains following the successful installation of a key component in a fusion energy experimental device, indicating a clearer commercialization path for nuclear fusion technology [2][6] Sector Summaries Nuclear Fusion Sector - The nuclear fusion concept stocks led the market, with companies like West Superconductor and Shanghai Electric hitting the daily limit up [2] - The successful installation of the Dewar base for the compact fusion energy experimental device in Hefei marks a new phase in the project, with expectations for accelerated capital expenditure in the sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2][6] Metals Sector - Precious metals such as gold, silver, copper, and aluminum saw significant price increases during the "Double Festival" period, with COMEX gold rising by 4.81% [3][6] - The rare earth sector also showed strength, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up following new export control announcements from the Ministry of Commerce [3][6] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector experienced notable volatility, with major stocks like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor showing mixed performance, indicating profit-taking after previous gains [5][7] - Despite short-term fluctuations, there remains a medium-term expectation for recovery in core semiconductor stocks, provided there are no significant downward trends [5][7] Market Trends - The overall market structure remains healthy with rising prices and increasing trading volume, but the sustainability of this trend will depend on future trading volumes [7] - The market is currently characterized by structural differentiation, with technology growth and certain cyclical stocks showing relative strength, particularly in sectors like metals, semiconductors, AI, solid-state batteries, and humanoid robots [7] Fund Flows - In September, the stock ETF market attracted over 111.3 billion yuan, marking a significant inflow of funds, particularly in ETFs tracking internet and battery indices [8]

Core Viewpoint - Baiyin Nonferrous Group Co., Ltd. is facing administrative penalties from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for significant omissions in its financial disclosures related to 3 billion yuan in wealth management products purchased between August 2017 and March 2018, which were not recovered on time [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Actions - Baiyin Nonferrous purchased wealth management products totaling 30 billion yuan from August 2017 to March 2018, which were not recovered by the end of 2019 and only returned by December 2024 [2]. - The company disclosed the initial and final balances of these products in its annual reports from 2019 to 2024 but failed to provide specific details as required by regulatory guidelines [2]. Regulatory Response - The CSRC's Gansu Regulatory Bureau has proposed to issue a warning and impose fines on Baiyin Nonferrous and responsible personnel for the violations in information disclosure [2]. - Prior to this, on September 11, 2025, Baiyin Nonferrous acknowledged receiving a notice of investigation from the CSRC [2]. Investor Implications - Investors who suffered losses due to Baiyin Nonferrous's alleged information disclosure violations can seek civil compensation, which includes investment differences, commissions, stamp duties, and interest losses [3]. - A lawyer from Shanghai Hanlian Law Firm is collecting claims from affected investors who purchased Baiyin Nonferrous securities between April 30, 2020, and September 10, 2025 [3][4]. - The conditions for claims may be adjusted based on the final conclusions of the CSRC's administrative penalties and court rulings [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Grasberg's unexpected copper production cut will change the global copper supply pattern in the next 12 - 15 months. With no significant increase in adjusted copper mine supply this year and no increase next year without the resumption of the Panama mine, the contradiction at the mine end is further intensified. The market sentiment and capital allocation for copper are expected to turn around, and the medium - term allocation value of copper is still favored [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable. Pay attention to demand, hold at low prices under the low - inventory pattern, and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. - Zinc prices fluctuated this week. The short - term unilateral trend is weakly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see; for internal - external arbitrage, partial profit - taking can be considered for internal - external positive arbitrage [2]. - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel are generally weak. In the short term, the macro - aspect follows the anti - involution expectation, and the policy side has a certain motivation to support prices [3][4]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend next week, in the range of 16,800 - 17,000 [7]. - For tin, the short - term domestic fundamentals maintain a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, short lightly when the price is above 275,000 yuan/ton, and hold near the cost line in the medium - long term [10]. - The short - and medium - term supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a balanced state, and the long - term price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [11]. - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuates. The price elasticity is high after the supply - side disturbance speculation is realized, and the downward price support is strong before the disturbance occurs [11]. Summary by Metals Copper - Freeport's Indonesian subsidiary's泥石流 accident postponed Grasberg's resumption of production, reducing the 2026 copper guidance by about 35% (equivalent to a reduction of about 270,000 tons of copper and about 1.04 million ounces of gold). The adjusted copper mine supply has no significant increase this year and next year without the resumption of the Panama mine [1]. - Fund long positions are gradually increasing, but macro and bulk CTA funds are still focused on precious metals. The gold - copper ratio is at a low historical quantile. With the structural gap in copper fundamentals emerging, the market sentiment and capital allocation for copper are expected to improve [1]. - Copper currently benefits from the global fiscal and monetary double - loose policy, and there is still room for subsequent interest rate cuts. It is advisable to consider laying out medium - term long positions below 79,000 - 79,500, or selling put options below 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - Supply has increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increase from January to August. Downstream开工 has improved, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules has stabilized. Pay attention to whether overseas demand stabilizes after the decline [1]. - In September, inventory decreased slightly, and it is expected to increase seasonally in October. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand [1]. Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated. The domestic TC decreased further, and the imported TC increased further. From the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, domestic zinc mines will be marginally tighter, while overseas mine production increased more than expected in the second quarter. In August, China imported 460,000 tons of zinc ore, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43% [2]. - In October, smelting production recovered slightly month - on - month. When the domestic zinc mine processing fee declines, attention should be paid to the impact of sulfuric acid and silver prices on total profits [2]. - Domestic demand is seasonally weak, with limited growth but certain resilience; overseas, European demand is average, and some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees [2]. - Domestic social inventory fluctuates, and overseas LME inventory decreases. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further diverge, and the export window is approaching. Some smelters and traders are preparing for exports [2]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - For nickel and stainless steel, supply is expected to see a slight resumption of production by steel mills. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. Nickel - iron prices remain stable, and chromium - iron prices for stainless steel increase slightly [3][4]. - Nickel inventories in Xifu area increased slightly, and stainless steel inventories in Xifu area decreased. Warehouse receipts for both decreased slightly [3][4]. Lead - This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weaker year - on - year. The expansion of recycling plants has led to a shortage of waste batteries. With low profits, recycled lead maintains low - level production. From April to August, the operation of concentrate mines increased, but due to smelting profits, supply fell short of demand, and TC quotes declined in a chaotic manner [7]. - On the demand side, the inventory of battery products is high. During the National Day holiday, battery production increased, and demand improved slightly. The refined - scrap price difference is - 75, and the long - term supply of recycled lead in Henan is tight. LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2,000 tons [7]. - In August, primary lead supply remained flat, and recycled lead production decreased. In September, both production cuts and resumptions occurred in recycled lead, and primary lead supply is expected to remain flat. Demand has improved slightly, but inventory is at a high level, and the overall inventory reduction needs to be verified [7]. Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the processing fee for tin mines is at a low level, and some domestic smelters have cut production. Yunnan Tin had maintenance in early September for about 45 days. Overseas, imports from Wa State were still low in August but gradually recovered from late September to October, and it is expected to maintain above 600 metal tons. Indonesia's tin export is expected to resume in mid - to late September [10]. - On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, mainly supported by rigid demand. When prices declined rapidly this week, downstream replenishment willingness was strong, and combined with National Day holiday replenishment, inventory reduction was significant. Overseas, Indonesia is gradually recovering, and LME inventory has rebounded from a low level [10]. Industrial Silicon - This week, leading enterprises in Xinjiang continued to resume production, with the latest number of operating furnaces reaching 82, an increase of 5 from last week. Currently, the operation in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable, with a monthly output close to 120,000 tons. Some factories in the southwest may gradually cut production in the future [11]. - In September, the supply - demand was in a balanced state, and the core of the balance change is the rhythm and amplitude of Hesheng's resumption of production. In the short term, affected by the resumption rhythm of the southwest and Hesheng, the supply - demand will remain balanced in September and October. In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still large, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [11]. Lithium Carbonate - This week, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated. On the raw material side, overseas mines have a strong willingness to support prices, and traders are reluctant to sell, but salt factories have a low acceptance of high - priced lithium ore [11]. - On the lithium salt side, the pre - holiday replenishment rhythm was strong first and then weak this week and is now approaching the end. The spot basis is stable and weak, with some discounts expanding by 100 - 200 yuan. The transaction of electric - grade lithium carbonate in the market is still mainly at a discount, and inquiries for high - priced goods are relatively scarce [11]. - Lithium carbonate is still in the capacity expansion cycle, and the static supply - demand pattern is still in surplus. With the help of the seasonal peak season and the explosion of energy storage demand, the monthly balance after CATL's gradual production cut has turned to continuous inventory reduction, but the amplitude is average [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to continue their strong performance due to supply tightening and loose macro - policies, with demand not significantly weakening [2][3]. - Aluminum prices are likely to move upward as macro - sentiment provides support, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is limited [4][5]. - Lead prices are expected to show a weak and volatile pattern after the holiday, with a higher inventory accumulation rate than in previous years [7][8]. - Zinc prices are expected to strengthen after the holiday, driven by a positive sector atmosphere and structural risks in LME zinc [10][11]. - Tin prices may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with supply and demand in a tight - balance state [13][14]. - Nickel prices may decline in the short term due to inventory pressure but have limited downside space in the long run [15][16]. - The price of lithium carbonate is supported at the bottom by strong downstream demand after the holidays, while supply expectations suppress the upside [19][20]. - Alumina prices are recommended to be observed for now, as the over - capacity situation persists, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous sector [22][23]. - Stainless steel prices may face downward pressure if supply pressure increases after the holiday and there is no substantial positive news [25][27]. - The price of cast aluminum alloy is under pressure above but supported by rising costs, with inventory continuing to accumulate [29][30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - During the National Day holiday, LME copper prices rose, with the 3M contract at $10,701/ton, up 3.14% from before the holiday. LME copper inventory decreased by 0.4 to 139,000 tons, and COMEX copper inventory increased by 0.9 to 303,000 tons. In August, Chile's copper production decreased by over 20,000 tons month - on - month and 9.9% year - on - year. In the third quarter, the output of Kamoa - Kakula Copper Mine in Congo (Kinshasa) decreased by about 40,000 tons quarter - on - quarter. In September, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by about 50,000 tons month - on - month, and is expected to decline further in October [2]. Strategy Viewpoint - Supply tightening and loose macro - policies support copper prices, and demand is not a major resistance. The reference range for the main SHFE copper contract is 84,500 - 86,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is $10,600 - 10,800/ton [3]. Aluminum Market Information - During the National Day holiday, LME aluminum prices rose, with the 3M contract at $2,750/ton, up 3.22% from before the holiday. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.7 to 506,000 tons. In September, China's electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.1% year - on - year and decreased by 3.2% month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased. Overseas electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.9% year - on - year, with a slight decline in the operating rate [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - Macro - sentiment supports aluminum prices, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is limited. The reference range for the main SHFE aluminum contract is 20,900 - 21,400 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is $2,730 - 2,780/ton [5]. Lead Market Information - Before the holiday, the SHFE lead index rose 0.35% to 16,921 yuan/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 37,700 tons. From September 30 to October 8, the LME lead 3M contract rose 0.8% to $2,007/ton, and the inventory increased slightly [7]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the holiday, lead prices are expected to show a weak and volatile pattern, with a higher inventory accumulation rate than in previous years [8]. Zinc Market Information - Before the holiday, the SHFE zinc index fell 0.01% to 21,814 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 141,400 tons. From September 30 to October 8, the LME zinc 3M contract rose 4.08% to $3,035.5/ton, and the inventory decreased to 38,200 tons, with a serious shortage of deliverable inventory [10]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the holiday, zinc prices are expected to strengthen due to a positive sector atmosphere and structural risks in LME zinc [11]. Tin Market Information - During the National Day, LME tin prices were strong, reaching a maximum of $37,695/ton. As of October 7, it was $36,445/ton, up 2.95% from September 30. Supply is tight due to slow复产 in Myanmar and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining. Demand from new - energy vehicles and AI servers is booming, but traditional consumer electronics and home appliances remain weak. In August, the tin solder开工率 of domestic sample enterprises rebounded to 73.22% [13]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the short term, tin supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. Tin prices may maintain a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to observe. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 280,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $36,000 - 39,000/ton [14]. Nickel Market Information - During the National Day, nickel prices oscillated. As of October 7, the LME nickel price was $15,485/ton, up 1.44% from September 30. The spot market had little trading activity during the holiday. Before the holiday, refined nickel downstream enterprises mainly purchased on - demand [15]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the short term, nickel prices may decline due to inventory pressure but have limited downside space in the long run. It is recommended to observe in the short term and consider buying on dips if the price drops significantly. The reference range for the short - term SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract is $14,500 - 16,500/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - On September 30, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.65%. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.68%, and the industrial - grade decreased by 0.49%. The LC2511 contract closed at 72,800 yuan, down 1.52% [19]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the holidays, strong downstream demand supports the bottom of lithium carbonate prices, while supply expectations suppress the upside. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 71,600 - 74,500 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina Market Information - On September 30, the alumina index fell 1.2% to 2,872 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 2,885 yuan/ton, with a premium of 40 yuan/ton over the 11 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained at $321/ton, and the import window opened [22]. Strategy Viewpoint - It is recommended to observe for now. Ore prices may be supported in the short term but face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end persists, and the opening of the import window may exacerbate the surplus. However, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous sector. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,800 - 3,100 yuan/ton [23]. Stainless Steel Market Information - Before the holiday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,730 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets remained stable. The social inventory increased to 984,500 tons, with a 0.88% increase in 300 - series inventory [25][26]. Strategy Viewpoint - Stainless - steel prices may face downward pressure if supply pressure increases after the holiday and there is no substantial positive news [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - Before the National Day holiday, cast aluminum alloy futures prices were weak, and the cost of raw aluminum rose during the holiday. The price difference between AL2511 and AD2511 contracts widened to 520 yuan/ton. The inventory of the exchange and main markets increased before the holiday [29]. Strategy Viewpoint - The downstream peak season of cast aluminum alloy is not strong, with inventory continuing to accumulate. The price is under pressure above but supported by rising costs [30].