1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc., and gives investment ratings and trend outlooks for each commodity [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**:避险情绪回升，趋势强度为1 [2][5] - **Silver**:快速拉升，趋势强度为1 [2][5] - **Platinum**:窄幅震荡，趋势强度为0 [2][26] - **Palladium**:区间震荡，趋势强度为0 [2][26] Base Metals - **Copper**:现货走强，支撑价格，趋势强度为1 [2][8] - **Zinc**:震荡偏强，趋势强度为1 [2][12] - **Lead**:LME库存减少，支撑价格，趋势强度为0 [2][15] - **Tin**:震荡走强，趋势强度为1 [2][17] - **Aluminum**:偏强运行，趋势强度为1 [2][24] - **Alumina**:逢高寻卖点，趋势强度为0 [2][24] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**:强于电解铝，趋势强度为1 [2][24] - **Nickel**:产业与二级资金博弈，宽幅震荡运行，趋势强度为0 [2][30] - **Stainless Steel**:镍铁抬升震荡重心，盘面博弈印尼政策，趋势强度为0 [2][31] Energy - **Crude Oil**:未提及具体观点，但原油价格上涨对部分化工品有支撑作用 [65][68] - **Fuel Oil**:弱势延续，下方仍有支撑，趋势强度为0 [2][54] - **Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil**:转入震荡，外盘现货高低硫价差持续反弹，趋势强度为0 [2][54] Chemicals - **Para-Xylene (PX)**:单边高位震荡市，趋势强度为1 [2][63] - **PTA**:多PX空PTA，趋势强度为1 [2][63] - **MEG**:低位反弹，估值下方空间有限，趋势强度为1 [2][63] - **Rubber**:宽幅震荡，趋势强度为0 [2][73] - **Synthetic Rubber**:上方压力逐步增加，趋势强度为0 [2][76] - **LLDPE**:标品排产部分回切，区域现货补空延续，趋势强度为0 [2][79] - **PP**:下游抢出口支撑丙烯，PP成本支撑偏强，趋势强度为0 [2][82] - **Caustic Soda**:偏弱震荡，趋势强度为 -1 [2][85] - **Pulp**:宽幅震荡，趋势强度为0 [2][90] - **Glass**:原片价格平稳，趋势强度为0 [2][95] - **Methanol**:高位震荡，趋势强度为0 [2][99] - **Urea**:短期回调，中期偏强，趋势强度为0 [2][104] - **Styrene**:短期震荡，趋势强度为0 [2][107] - **Soda Ash**:现货市场变化不大，趋势强度为0 [2][111] - **LPG**:短期供应偏紧，地缘扰动偏强，趋势强度为0 [2][115] - **Propylene**:现货供需收紧，趋势偏强，趋势强度为0 [2][116] - **PVC**:偏弱震荡，趋势强度为 -1 [2][124] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**:报告利空落地，原油反弹推涨油脂，趋势强度为1 [2][63] - **Soybean Oil**:美豆动能有限，单边区间为主，趋势强度为1 [2][63] - **Soybean Meal**:USDA报告偏空，或跟随美豆回调，趋势强度为 -1 [2][169] - **Soybean**:USDA报告影响，或调整震荡，趋势强度为0 [2][169] - **Corn**:关注现货，趋势强度为0 [2][172] - **Sugar**:区间整理，趋势强度为0 [2][176] - **Cotton**:延续调整态势，趋势强度为0 [2][181] - **Egg**:现货盈利，远月情绪转弱，趋势强度为0 [2][187] - **Live Pig**:需求存负反馈，供应预期增量，趋势强度为 -1 [2][190] - **Peanut**:震荡运行，趋势强度为0 [2][193] Shipping - **Container Freight Index (Europe Line)**:关注开舱指引；04轻仓试空，趋势强度为0 [2][130] Fibers - **Short Fiber**:震荡偏强，多TA空PF持有，趋势强度为0 [2][147] - **Bottle Chip**:震荡偏强，月差正套持有，趋势强度为0 [2][147] Paper - **Offset Printing Paper**:逢高布空，趋势强度为 -1 [2][150] Others - **Log**:震荡反复，趋势强度为0 [2][59]

Core Viewpoint - The potential criminal investigation of Powell has led to a significant rise in precious metals, with both gold and silver reaching historical highs, driven by concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and uncertainty in monetary policy [1] Group 1: Impact of Powell's Investigation - Powell's investigation is unprecedented and threatens the traditional independence of the Federal Reserve, which could undermine confidence in the dollar and indirectly boost precious metal prices [1] - The investigation creates decision-making pressure for Powell, as lowering interest rates may confirm political pressure, while maintaining high rates could escalate the investigation [1] - The upcoming end of Powell's term in May and the selection of a new chair could influence the future independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Expectations of monetary easing are expected to lower U.S. Treasury yields and market interest rates, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and increasing its investment demand [2] - The weakening of the dollar due to reduced confidence and the potential for inflation driven by loose monetary policy could further enhance gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [2] - Regardless of who becomes the next Federal Reserve chair, the market anticipates multiple rate cuts and balance sheet expansion to ensure liquidity, with expectations of 2-3 rate cuts by 2026 unless economic data improves significantly [2] Group 3: Long-term Considerations for Precious Metals - The erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence is linked to broader issues such as U.S. debt sustainability and increasing political divisions, suggesting a strong and lasting support for precious metal prices [3] - Key signals to monitor include the new Federal Reserve chair's stance, the progress of the 2026 midterm elections, and policy statements from Federal Reserve meetings [3] - A potential decline in the "political premium" for precious metals could occur if the investigation concludes without substantial evidence, or if the new chair signals a commitment to policy independence [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Rapid price increases may lead to overbought conditions, prompting either side to exit positions, which could result in significant price adjustments [4]

Market Overview - International gold prices saw a significant increase on January 12, opening at $4,518.58 per ounce, reaching a high of $4,627.49, a low of $4,513.08, and closing at $4,621.30 [1] Economic Outlook - New York Fed President Williams projected a healthy U.S. economy in 2026, indicating no reason for interest rate cuts in the short term. He stated that current monetary policy is well-positioned to support labor market stability and help inflation return to the 2% target [2] - Williams expects GDP growth this year to be between 2.5% and 2.75%, with the unemployment rate stabilizing and then declining in subsequent years. He anticipates inflation pressures peaking between 2.75% and 3% in the first half of the year, averaging 2.5% for the year, and returning to 2% by 2027 [2] Federal Reserve Investigation - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expressed dissatisfaction regarding the investigation into Fed Chair Powell, suggesting it could negatively impact financial markets. He indicated that Powell's position is now more secure than before [4] - Former Fed Chair Yellen criticized the investigation as undermining the Fed's independence, expressing surprise at the market's lack of concern. She firmly stated that Powell would not commit perjury [5] - UBS Chief Economist Donovan noted that the investigation could ultimately strengthen the Fed's independence, as market concerns about political interference in rate management are rising [5] Geopolitical Developments - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods from countries conducting business with Iran, which is intended to increase pressure on the Iranian government. This move may temporarily reduce the likelihood of U.S. military intervention in Iran [6] - The White House emphasized that diplomacy remains the preferred approach, although military options are still on the table if necessary [6] Protests in Iran - Protests against rising prices and currency devaluation have occurred in Iran, leading to unrest and casualties. However, reports indicate that the situation in Tehran has stabilized, with improved public order [7] Gold ETF Holdings - The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF, increased its holdings by 6.24 tons, bringing the total to 1,070.8 tons [7] Market Sentiment - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in January is at 5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is at 95%. By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 26% [7]

Price Dynamics and Market Response - Spot gold prices surpassed $4600 per ounce for the first time, reaching a peak of $4630, marking a historical high, with a daily increase of over 2% and a monthly rise of $280 [1] - Spot silver prices increased by over 5%, crossing $86 per ounce, while the main Shanghai silver futures contract surged by 14.42%, exceeding 20998 yuan per kilogram [1] - Domestic retail market saw brand gold jewelry prices jump by 19-22 yuan per gram, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang quoting prices at 1429 yuan per gram, leading to a doubling of the total price of a 60-gram gold bracelet to over 80,000 yuan since the beginning of the year [1] Core Drivers of Price Increase - Expectations of loose monetary policy due to weak U.S. non-farm payroll data, with the market betting on over 75 basis points of cumulative rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, causing the U.S. dollar index to drop to a three-year low, thus reducing the holding cost of non-yielding assets [3] - Geopolitical risks, including U.S. military actions in Venezuela and escalating conflicts in the Middle East, alongside global central banks increasing gold holdings for 14 consecutive months, with net purchases of 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, driving safe-haven investments [4] Silver Demand and Supply Dynamics - Explosive growth in industrial demand for silver, particularly from photovoltaic installations (accounting for 55% of silver demand), electric vehicles (with silver usage per vehicle being seven times that of gasoline vehicles), and surging demand for AI servers [5] - Silver inventory depletion, with London deliverable stocks at a ten-year low of only 233 tons, leading to spot premiums soaring to 7%-8% [6] Market Divergence and Risk Indicators - Divergent market views with bullish perspectives citing industrial demand, central bank purchases, and a weakening dollar, while cautious views highlight severe overbought conditions, with silver's RSI reaching 93.86, the highest since 1980, prompting warnings of potential short-term corrections to $4280-$4300 [7][8] - Technical indicators suggest a bubble in gold with an RSI exceeding 85, and silver's volatility being three times that of gold, historically associated with significant corrections [8] Practical Strategy Recommendations - For consumers, prioritize bank gold bars (premium ≤ 5%) or gold accumulation plans, and consider processing through Shenzhen's water bay market to avoid high premiums on branded jewelry [10] - For investors, maintain a position management strategy with a maximum allocation of 10% of liquid assets, favoring gold ETFs with fees below 0.5% over leveraged trading, and implement strict stop-loss measures for silver investments [11] - Timing recommendations suggest entering gold positions if prices dip below $4500 and identifying support for silver in the $74-$75 range [12] Long-term Investment Logic - Gold is viewed as an asset "ballast," with strategic value in hedging sovereign credit risks, rather than a short-term speculative tool, emphasizing adherence to the "three no principles": no betting on trends, no leverage, and no risking personal assets [13] Future Key Observation Points - Policy developments to watch include the Federal Reserve's March dot plot, progress on U.S. government shutdown, and signals of inflation data recovery [14] - Industry developments to monitor include advancements in photovoltaic silver substitution technologies and changes in exchange inventories, as continued declines may support precious metal prices [15]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：期货日报 早上好！来看一些重要消息。 中国资产大涨 周一，美股三大指数集体小幅收涨，标普500指数和道琼斯指数双双创历史新高。截至收盘，道指涨 86.13点，涨幅为0.17%，报49590.20点；纳指涨62.56点，涨幅为0.26%，报23733.90点；标普500指数涨 10.99点，涨幅为0.16%，报6977.27点。 热门中概股多数收涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨4.26%，阿里巴巴涨超10%；哔哩哔哩、小鹏汽车涨超 8%，百度、微博涨超6%，蔚来、网易、京东涨超4%，理想汽车涨超2%。 美国司法部威胁要对美联储主席鲍威尔提起刑事诉讼，再度引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧，金属价格 普遍上涨，黄金和白银价格攀升至纪录高位，现货黄金价格升破4600美元/盎司；现货白银价格一度上 涨8%，突破86美元/盎司；LME基准铜期货价格一度上涨2.5%，至13323美元/吨，之后回吐部分涨幅。 伊朗局势动荡引发投资者对伊朗供应中断的担忧，原油价格升至2025年12月初以来的最高水平。WTI 2 月原油期货价格收于59.50美元/桶，涨幅为0.64% ...

美东时间周一，美股市场呈现积极态势，三大指数集体小幅收涨，其中标普500指数和道琼斯指数更是 双双创下历史新高。尽管美国司法部对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查引发市场担忧，但在科技股以及 零售巨头沃尔玛股价走强的带动下，投资者整体情绪较为乐观，淡化了这一负面消息的影响。 从收盘数据来看，道指上涨86.13点，涨幅0.17%，最终报49590.20点；纳指上涨62.56点，涨幅0.26%， 收于23733.90点；标普500指数上涨10.99点，涨幅0.16%，报6977.27点。 在标普500指数的11个板块中，表现分化明显。信息技术/科技板块上涨0.35%，工业板块涨幅达0.75%， 原材料板块上涨0.73%；而能源板块下跌0.66%，金融板块跌幅为0.8%。 大型科技股多数上涨，谷歌A表现亮眼，收涨1%，收盘市值突破4万亿美元。消息面上，苹果官宣将与 谷歌携手，为苹果的人工智能功能提供支持，今年晚些时候将对Siri进行重大升级，周一两家科技巨头 均确认了这一消息。谷歌在官方博客中表示，苹果已与谷歌达成多年合作协议，下一代苹果基础模型将 基于谷歌的Gemini模型和云技术，这些模型将为未来的苹果智能功能提供支 ...

早上好！来看一些重要消息。 中国资产大涨 特朗普预计于本周面试美联储主席候选人里德尔 周一，美股三大指数集体小幅收涨，标普500指数和道琼斯指数双双创历史新高。截至收盘，道指涨 86.13点，涨幅为0.17%，报49590.20点；纳指涨62.56点，涨幅为0.26%，报23733.90点；标普500指数涨 10.99点，涨幅为0.16%，报6977.27点。 热门中概股多数收涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨4.26%，阿里巴巴涨超10%；哔哩哔哩、小鹏汽车涨超 8%，百度、微博涨超6%，蔚来、网易、京东涨超4%，理想汽车涨超2%。 美国司法部威胁要对美联储主席鲍威尔提起刑事诉讼，再度引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧，金属价格 普遍上涨，黄金和白银价格攀升至纪录高位，现货黄金价格升破4600美元/盎司；现货白银价格一度上 涨8%，突破86美元/盎司；LME基准铜期货价格一度上涨2.5%，至13323美元/吨，之后回吐部分涨幅。 伊朗局势动荡引发投资者对伊朗供应中断的担忧，原油价格升至2025年12月初以来的最高水平。WTI 2 月原油期货价格收于59.50美元/桶，涨幅为0.64%，此前三个交易日累计上涨超过6%；布伦 ...

（原标题：深圳水贝"抢银热"逐渐回归理性——商家直言"不敢再溢价进货"） 1月12日，证券时报记者再次走访水贝市场，发现许多商家都将投资银条摆在最为显眼的位置。不仅如 此，一些专门售卖金饰和铂金饰品的店铺，也会摆上些投资银条，"蹭一蹭"热度。 此前，"水贝市场投资银条供不应求""水贝商户加价抢白银"等话题曾受到市场关注。不过，记者走访发 现，许多柜台都有投资银条的现货。多位商家表示，目前市场上还是比较缺银料，但与上月底相比，目 前投资银条的"缺货"现象有所缓解。 记者了解到，水贝市场大部分商户出售投资银条，都是以银价加上加工费后再乘以克重这一公式来计算 价格。有商家以克重为1000克的银条为例，克价为25元，以12日的银价计算，也就是相当于每克增加了 1.5元的工费，但回收时按市场的回收价格计算，也就是每克17元左右。 有商家表示，"最近银价涨得猛，回收价格也上涨了一些，但涨幅不及售价"。对此，有业内人士表示， 普通消费者如果纯粹为了投资白银而购买实物银条，还是需谨慎。 证券时报记者 吴家明 "上个月初的银价每克才16元左右，现在都涨到接近24元了。"在深圳水贝从事银饰生意的黄经理 说，"真没想到银价涨得这么 ...

Oil Market - Oil prices rose to their highest level since early December due to concerns over supply disruptions from Iran, with WTI crude closing above $59 per barrel, marking a cumulative increase of over 6% in the previous three trading days [2][9] - Iran's political and military unrest poses a threat to its oil production of approximately 3.3 million barrels per day, with potential military action from the U.S. being a significant concern [10][2] Base Metals - Copper prices initially surged by 2.5% to $13,323 per ton but later retraced some gains, influenced by a weaker dollar and supply concerns [4][13] - Other base metals like aluminum and tin reached their highest levels since 2022, although they also experienced a pullback due to market volatility and a rebalancing of a benchmark commodity index [5][14] - As of the London market close, LME copper was up 1.6% at $13,209.5 per ton, while LME aluminum rose 1.6% to $3,184.5 per ton [15] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices reached record highs amid concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, with gold surpassing $4,600 per ounce and silver rising by up to 8% to over $86 [7][16] - The potential for increased intervention by the Federal Reserve is seen as a key factor that could positively influence the precious metals market in the coming years [16] - As of 3:15 PM EST, gold was up 2.1% at $4,603.22 per ounce, and silver was up 6.6% at $85.1554 per ounce [17]

来源：喜娜AI 金融市场犹如变幻莫测的海洋，时刻涌动着投资与经济政策的波澜，深刻影响着全球经济的走向。在 此，喜娜AI为您呈上昨夜今晨的财经热点新闻，全方位覆盖股市动态、经济数据、企业财务状况以及 政策更新等关键领域，助您精准洞察金融世界的风云变幻，把握市场脉搏。 政府首次系统规范投资基金，明确投向与管理规则 1月12日，国家多部门联合发布《关于加强政府投资基金布局规划和投向指导的工作办法》，首次在国 家层面对政府投资基金布局和投向作出系统规范。《办法》围绕"投向哪、怎么投、谁来管"提出14项举 措，优化布局，引导投向重点产业，还明确了国家级和地方基金功能定位与投资重点。此外，同步制定 评价管理办法强化规范。详情>> 1月12日，A股开盘20分钟成交金额突破1万亿元，盘面出现港股与A50、期货与股票、国债与红利、成 交量与券商股走势四大背离。后市成交若持续放大，调整风险或增加，但当前市场仍处结构性火热，系 统性风险不大，需防范高低切换。详情>> 中欧电动汽车案磋商有进展，有望"软着陆" 成交额破3.6万亿创纪录，A股现三大"景观" 1月12日，A股市场震荡拉升，三大指数涨超1%，成交额超3.6万亿元创历史新高 ...