Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, demonstrating resilience in profitability despite the downturn in the ferroalloy and caustic soda PVC industries. The report anticipates limited further decline in the industry, with the company's performance gradually stabilizing [2][11] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 27,006 million, a decrease of 4.9% from 2024 - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2,054 million, reflecting an increase of 11.2% from 2024 - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.73 yuan for 2025, with a gradual increase to 0.89 yuan by 2027 - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 8.8% in 2024 to 11.1% in 2027 [4][12] Industry Performance - The ferroalloy segment showed stable operations, with silicon iron and silicon manganese production at 79.28 and 9.58 million tons respectively in the first half of 2025 - The PVC and caustic soda segments experienced production growth, with PVC output at 54.33 million tons and caustic soda at 36.32 million tons, reflecting increases of 2.54 and 2.11 million tons respectively [11][12] Valuation - The target price for the company has been raised to 13.14 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18 times for 2025, which is slightly below the industry average of 21.33 times [11][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The high supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese suppresses prices, but there is support from the cost side [4]. - The "anti - involution" rumor led to a rebound in ferrous alloy prices, but the rumor is unconfirmed, and the high - supply problem remains, so the upside potential of the rebound should not be over - estimated. If the price exceeds the cost line by more than 200, attention should be paid to the pressure [4]. - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased significantly due to the military parade and is expected to rebound next week, which will boost raw material demand. However, if the demand recovery in September is slow, steel mills may cut production to reduce inventory, leading to downward pressure on raw material demand [4]. - The cost of ferromanganese is supported by stable electricity prices in major production areas, stable port inventory of manganese ore (significantly lower than last year), firm spot prices at ports, and a slightly stronger quotation from overseas mines in October [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Supply**: This week, the output of ferrosilicon increased slightly, while that of ferromanganese decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to whether the output will continue to decline [4]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased significantly due to the military parade and is expected to rebound next week, which will boost raw material demand. However, the continuous increase in steel inventory may lead to steel mill production cuts and downward pressure on raw material demand if the demand recovery in September is slow [4]. - **Cost**: The electricity price in major production areas and the port inventory of manganese ore are stable. The port inventory of manganese ore is significantly lower than last year, and the spot price at ports is firm. Overseas mines' quotations for October are slightly stronger, providing support for ferromanganese [4]. - **Market sentiment**: The "anti - involution" rumor on Friday led to a significant rebound in ferrous alloy prices. However, the rumor is unconfirmed, and the high - supply problem remains, so the upside potential of the rebound should not be over - estimated [4]. 3.1.2 Strategy - **Single - side trading**: In the short term, follow the rebound. Due to the high - supply problem, do not be overly optimistic about the rebound height. Pay attention to the pressure levels of around 5800 for ferrosilicon and 6000 for ferromanganese [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [5]. - **Options**: Sell straddle combinations on rallies [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis No specific content that can be summarized separately is provided. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 228.84 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.29 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types was 2.01 tons (about 70% of the total demand), a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 tons. The weekly demand for ferromanganese in five major steel types (70%) was 12.37 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 tons [10]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 36.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2%. The weekly supply of ferrosilicon was 11.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent ferromanganese enterprises was 46.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55%. The weekly supply of ferromanganese (99%) was 21.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 tons [11]. - **Inventory**: In the week of September 5th, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 6.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.36 tons. The inventory of 63 independent ferromanganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of the national production capacity) was 16.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.15 tons [12]. 3.3.2 Spot Price - Basis No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of price and basis trends are presented [16][17]. 3.3.3 Production Situation of Dual - Silicon Enterprises No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of weekly output and operating rate trends are presented [21][22]. 3.3.4 Steel Mill Production Situation No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of blast furnace capacity utilization, steel production, profitability, and inventory trends are presented [27][28]. 3.3.5 Ferromanganese Cost and Profit - On September 4, 2025, the production cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5798 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 118 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the production cost was 5880 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 380 yuan/ton; in Guangxi, the production cost was 6393 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 693 yuan/ton; in Guizhou, the production cost was 6133 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 483 yuan/ton. The production cost in the north was 5824 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 206 yuan/ton; in the south, the production cost was 6247 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 575 yuan/ton [30]. 3.3.6 Ferrosilicon Cost and Profit - On September 4, 2025, the production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5535 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 315 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the production cost was 5588 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 388 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi, the production cost was 5600 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 400 yuan/ton; in Qinghai, the production cost was 5457 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 257 yuan/ton; in Gansu, the production cost was 5609 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 409 yuan/ton [40]. 3.3.7 Cost of Carbon Elements and Electricity Price No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of price trends are presented [47][48]. 3.3.8 Bidding Prices of Dual - Silicon by Representative Steel Mills in Hebei No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of price trends are presented [52][53]. 3.3.9 Monthly Output of Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of output and cumulative output trends are presented [58][59]. 3.3.10 Import and Export of Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of import and export volume trends are presented [65][66]. 3.3.11 Demand for Magnesium Metal No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of price and output trends are presented [68][69]. 3.3.12 Silicon - Iron Inventory of Alloy Plants and Steel Mills No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of inventory and available - days trends are presented [71][72]. 3.3.13 Manganese Ore Inventory of Alloy Plants, Steel Mills, and Ports No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of inventory and available - days trends are presented [73][74].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term, with potential for demand repair but continued inventory accumulation. The spread between hot - rolled and rebar futures may narrow. Coal prices face pressure if coal mine production cuts do not materialize [3][4]. - The double - coking market is expected to have low activity, with prices in a wide - range oscillation due to balanced supply - demand and uncertainty in future coal production regulation [9]. - The iron ore market will mainly oscillate, with supply from major mines remaining stable and demand showing a pattern of weakening domestic demand and high - growth overseas demand [12]. - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese markets are expected to have bottom - oscillating prices, with supply at a high level and demand facing some uncertainties [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: Most steel mills in Tangshan conducted blast furnace maintenance from August 31 to September 3, with a production restriction of 30% - 40%. Most resumed production on September 4. US ADP employment in August was 54,000, lower than the expected 65,000. Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in some regions changed slightly [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector maintained an oscillating trend at night. This week, steel production decreased significantly due to the parade, and demand in North China was also affected, leading to faster inventory accumulation. Iron - water production is expected to recover rapidly next week, but demand is still in the off - season. The spread between hot - rolled and rebar futures may narrow [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain a bottom - oscillating trend; Arbitrage: Hold short positions on the hot - rolled - rebar spread and enter a 1 - 5 positive spread; Option: Wait and see [6]. Double - Coking - **Related Information**: This week, the utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased, and the daily output of raw coal and clean coal decreased. The inventory of raw coal increased, while that of clean coal decreased. Steel mill indicators such as blast furnace operation rate and iron - water output also changed. Spot prices of coke and coking coal were provided [8][9]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the event, coal mines and steel mills are resuming production. Weak steel prices restrict raw - material prices. Coking coal prices are declining slightly, and coke prices are stable but with a downward - adjustment expectation. The supply - demand of coking coal is balanced, and prices are expected to oscillate widely [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillate; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see; Spot - futures: Wait and see [10]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The US - Japan trade agreement was implemented, and US ADP employment data was released. The balance of personal mortgage loans of six major state - owned banks decreased. Spot prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port increased, and the basis of the 01 iron - ore main contract was provided [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron - ore prices oscillated at a high level this week. Supply from major mines was stable, and non - mainstream supply increased. Domestic demand for steel in the manufacturing industry weakened, while overseas demand remained high. The market expectation was volatile [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillate, with spot hedging at a phased high; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [13]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Related Information**: Spot prices of manganese ore and the purchase price of ferrosilicon by a steel mill were provided [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: The spot price of ferrosilicon was slightly weak, with supply at a high level and demand facing uncertainties. The spot price of silicomanganese was also slightly weak, with supply and demand in a state of balance and cost relatively stable [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Bottom - oscillate; Arbitrage: Gradually take profit on spot - futures positive spreads; Option: Sell straddle option combinations at high prices [16].

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting forecasts the supply and demand dynamics of the ferroalloy industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] - According to data from Chinese customs, in July 2025, China's ferroalloy export volume reached 60,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [1] - The export value for the same period was $11.2 million, which reflects a year-on-year decline of 16.2% [1] Industry Overview - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industrial consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services [1] - The firm has over a decade of experience in the industry research field, offering tailored solutions for investment decision-making [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market is generally weak. Although steel product prices show a slightly stronger oscillation, they are under overall pressure. With the end of the parade, steel mills in Tangshan have resumed production, and the export volume increased slightly last week but remains in a weak oscillation pattern. The demand for steel is weak in the peak season, and the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, prices may decline further. The raw material end is more stable than the finished product end, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. It is recommended to focus on the recovery rhythm of terminal demand and the support of the cost end for the prices of finished products [4]. - The price of iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent shipping pressure and the recovery speed of molten iron after the important nodes. The price of ferroalloys continues to squeeze out the over - estimated value. The market is gradually shifting from trading on expectations to trading on the real - world situation, and the prices will move closer to the fundamentals. For manganese silicon, the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the price is expected to remain weak before mid - October. For silicon iron, attention should be paid to changes in downstream terminal demand and relevant policies [7][11][12]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the supply pressure exceeding the demand support. The price of polysilicon continues to be in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", with high volatility. Glass is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and its price adjustment space is limited. The price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upside space is restricted by the supply - demand contradiction [15][16][18][19]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3117 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.354%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 222,549 tons, a net increase of 896 tons. The main contract position was 1.736432 million lots, a net decrease of 18,381 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3313 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (0.424%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 24,459 tons, a net decrease of 301 tons. The main contract position was 1.283425 million lots, a net increase of 34,343 lots [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The rebar apparent demand remains weak, and the inventory accumulation pressure intensifies. The hot - rolled coil production reduction is significant, the apparent demand decreases significantly month - on - month, the overall demand is moderately weak, and the inventory continues to rise. The steel price is under obvious pressure due to high production and insufficient demand. The profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the disk shows weak characteristics [4]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 791.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.87% (+14.50), and the position increased by 41,053 lots to 507,000 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 821,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 43.04 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.16% [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The overseas iron ore shipping volume has increased recently. The daily average molten iron output decreased significantly, mainly in North China. The port inventory has increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory has decreased. The price of iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the subsequent shipping pressure and the recovery speed of molten iron [7]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Price and Position Data**: On September 4, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.03% at 5730 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF511) closed down 0.43% at 5496 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Market Analysis**: The prices of ferroalloys continue to squeeze out the over - estimated value. The manganese silicon market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to remain weak before mid - October. The supply - demand fundamentals of silicon iron have no obvious contradictions, and attention should be paid to downstream demand changes and relevant policies. It is recommended that speculative positions remain on the sidelines [11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8515 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.29% (+25). The weighted contract position decreased by 3039 lots to 481,904 lots. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 52,195 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.07% (+35). The weighted contract position decreased by 3866 lots to 316,993 lots [14][16]. - **Market Analysis**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with supply pressure exceeding demand support. The price of polysilicon continues to be in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", with high volatility and strong influence from news [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1130 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; in Central China, it was 1070 yuan, also unchanged. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.05 million weight cases, a net increase of 484,000 weight cases (+0.77%) month - on - month. The spot price of soda ash was 1190 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8221 million tons, a net increase of 2800 tons (+0.15%) [18][19]. - **Market Analysis**: Glass is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and its price adjustment space is limited. The price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upside space is restricted by the supply - demand contradiction [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Categories Price - **Silicon Iron**: On September 4, 2025, the latest prices of 72 silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia were 5200 and 5250 respectively, with no daily change but a weekly decrease of 150 and 100. The export price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 1055 US dollars, with no daily or weekly change. The latest price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5950, with no daily change but a weekly increase of 50 [2]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On September 4, 2025, the latest factory - ex prices of 6517 silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guizhou, and Yunnan were 5680, 5500, 5700, 5650, and 5650 respectively, with no daily change but weekly decreases ranging from 70 to 120 [2]. Supply - **Silicon Iron**: The production data of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly and weekly production, and the monthly capacity utilization rates of enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The weekly production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are shown, as well as the monthly procurement prices and quantities of 6517 silicon manganese by HeSteel Group [6]. Demand - **Silicon Iron**: Related demand indicators such as China's estimated and statistical monthly crude steel production, national magnesium production, and the procurement prices and quantities of FeSi75 - B by HeSteel Group from 2021 - 2025 are provided [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The demand indicators of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025, including estimated crude steel production, silicon manganese demand, and export volume, are presented [4][7]. Inventory - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly inventory data of 60 sample silicon iron enterprises in China, including those in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, from 2021 - 2025 are provided, as well as daily warehouse receipt and effective forecast data [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The daily warehouse receipt, effective forecast, and total inventory data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025, as well as the weekly inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China, are presented [7]. Cost and Profit - **Silicon Iron**: The cost - related data such as electricity prices in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia, and the market price of semi - coke in Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 are provided. The profit data include the production cost, spot profit, and export profit of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The cost - related data such as the factory - ex price of chemical coke in Ordos and the prices of various manganese ores at ports from 2021 - 2025 are provided. The profit data include the profits of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions [6][7].

Report Information - Report Title: Ferrous Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 3, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - The recent trading logic is the production restriction news of steel mills in Tangshan before the September 3 parade, leading to a decline in the demand expectation for coke and ferrous alloy furnace materials. The ferrous alloy prices have followed the decline of coking coal prices. However, the possibility and space for further decline are limited. There is still support at the bottom, but there is also pressure at the top under the current situation of high operating rates and weak downstream demand. The profit of ferrous alloys has been continuously declining, and there is a possibility of production reduction. The inventory may change from destocking to stockpiling, and there is still pressure at the top. It is more cost - effective to go long on the spread between silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese alloy, and it is advisable to go long on the 01 spread of the two silicons at - 400 [4]. Key Points by Section Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for silicon ferroalloy is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.45% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.0%. The monthly price range forecast for silicon manganese alloy is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.08% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.9% [3] Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, they can short ferrous alloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) according to their inventory situation, with a selling orientation and a hedging ratio of 15%. The recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to the rise of ferrous alloy prices, they can buy ferrous alloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at the current stage, with a buying orientation and a hedging ratio of 25%. The recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] Core Contradiction - The price of ferrous alloys has followed the decline of coking coal. Although there is still a possibility of further decline, the space is limited. There is support at the bottom, but pressure at the top under high operating rates and weak downstream demand. The profit has been declining, and there is a possibility of production reduction. The inventory may change from destocking to stockpiling. It is more cost - effective to go long on the spread between silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese alloy, and it is advisable to go long on the 01 spread of the two silicons at - 400 [4] Bullish Factors - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The demand for silicon ferroalloy in five major steel products is 2.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48%. The silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts are 9.92 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%, and the total inventory is 16.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [6] - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry. The demand for silicon manganese alloy in five major steel products is 12.67 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The enterprise inventory is 14.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.49%, the warehouse receipts are 33.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05%, and the total inventory is 48.18 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.88% [7] Bearish Factors - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The supply of ferrous alloys is at a high level in the same period of the past five years, with great supply pressure. The enterprise inventory is 6.29 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% [7] - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the market doubts the growth of terminal steel demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese alloy. The production is 21.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%, and the operating rate in China is 47%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [7] Daily Data - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The daily data includes information such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts [7] - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: The daily data includes information such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts [8] Term Structure Spread and Seasonal Charts - There are term structure spread charts for silicon ferroalloy, silicon manganese alloy, and coking coal, as well as various seasonal charts for silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese alloy, including market price, basis, and futures spread seasonal charts [9][10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is weak, with the prices of finished steel products showing a weak and volatile trend. The demand for finished products is clearly weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weak characteristics of the futures market are becoming more prominent. If the demand cannot be effectively improved in the future, the prices may continue to decline. The raw material end is more resilient than the finished products, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. It is recommended to continuously track the progress of terminal demand recovery and the support of the cost end for the prices of finished products [3]. - The price of iron ore is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The recent increase in overseas mine shipments may bring pressure, and the strong raw material prices continue to affect the profits of steel mills. The fundamentals of finished products are relatively weak, and the futures market shows that raw materials are stronger than finished products. The impact of production restrictions on iron water production in Tangshan steel mills needs to be observed [6]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon continue to be weak. The over - supply pattern of manganese silicon remains unchanged, and its price is expected to remain weak until mid - October. There is no obvious contradiction in the supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon, and attention should be paid to changes in downstream terminal demand and relevant policies. Hedging funds are advised to seize hedging opportunities [9][11]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with the supply pressure from resuming production greater than the demand support. The price of polysilicon continues to be in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", with high volatility and possible upward exploration if favorable news is released [14][15]. - The price of glass is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and its long - term trend depends on policy support and demand improvement. The price of soda ash is expected to be volatile in the short term, and its price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited due to the contradiction between supply and demand [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3117 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.064%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 3683 tons in registered warrants and 41530 hands in the main contract positions. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3298 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.15%), with no change in registered warrants and an increase of 22073 hands in the main contract positions [2]. - **Spot Market**: The aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanghai, it was 3350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of rebar increased, demand improved slightly but remained weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand declined, and inventory continued to increase. The overall steel production is high, demand is insufficient, and steel prices are under great pressure [3]. Iron Ore - **Futures Market**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 777.00 yuan/ton, up 0.71% (+5.50), with an increase of 12928 hands in positions to 46.59 million hands. The weighted position was 77.35 million hands [5]. - **Spot Market**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 775 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 46.52 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.65% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Overseas shipments increased, with a slight decline in Australian shipments and a significant increase in Brazilian shipments. The daily average pig iron production decreased, the profitability of steel mills continued to decline, port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill inventory decreased. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased, but inventory accumulation did not slow down significantly [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Futures Market**: On September 3, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.21% at 5732 yuan/ton; the main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.14% at 5520 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading [8][9]. - **Market Sentiment and Fundamentals**: The "anti - involution" sentiment in the market declined, and the prices of ferroalloys continued to squeeze out the over - estimated value. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continued to accumulate, and the market was worried about the demand in the peak season. The over - supply pattern of manganese silicon remained unchanged, and its production continued to increase. There was no obvious contradiction in the supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) was 8490 yuan/ton, up 0.24% (+20), with a decrease of 6216 hands in weighted positions to 484943 hands [13]. - **Spot Market**: The price of 553 non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 8950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 421 was 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was 460 yuan/ton and 110 yuan/ton respectively [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand problems remained. The supply increased, and the demand from downstream industries was divided. The price was expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with a range of 8100 - 9000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Polysilicon** - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) was 52160 yuan/ton, up 0.55% (+285), with an increase of 2757 hands in weighted positions to 320859 hands [14]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of N - type granular silicon was 48.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re -投料 was 51.5 yuan/kg, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 660 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamentals**: It continued the pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation". The supply increased, the inventory of silicon wafers decreased, and the spot price increased. The price was expected to be highly volatile, with possible upward exploration if favorable news was released [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Shahe was 1130 yuan, unchanged; in Central China, it was 1070 yuan, unchanged. The overall market was stable, and the transaction was average [17]. - **Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.566 million heavy boxes, down 1.63% month - on - month and 11.31% year - on - year, with a decrease of 0.5 days in inventory days [17]. - **Fundamentals**: The production remained high, the inventory pressure decreased, and the downstream real estate demand did not improve significantly. The price was expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and its long - term trend depended on policy support and demand improvement [17]. - **Soda Ash** - **Spot Market**: The spot price was 1175 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day. The overall price of enterprises fluctuated little, with individual price cuts [18]. - **Inventory**: As of September 1, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8193 million tons, down 2.58% from last Thursday, with a decrease in both light and heavy soda ash inventories [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased, the inventory pressure decreased, and the downstream glass industry's operating rate changed. The price was expected to be volatile in the short term, and its price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space was limited due to the supply - demand contradiction [18].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Black Metal R & D Report - Ferrous Alloys Daily [2] - Date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [3] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF Main Contract: Closing price 5520, daily change -8, weekly change -114, trading volume 111,272, daily change -44,885, open interest 237,691, daily change 758 [4] - SM Main Contract: Closing price 5732, daily change -12, weekly change -100, trading volume 102,788, daily change -48,551, open interest 336,722, daily change 3008 [4] Spot - Silicon Iron: Prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin remained stable on the day, with weekly decreases ranging from 50 to 150 yuan [4] - Manganese Silicon: Prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were flat on the day, with weekly drops from 70 to 150 yuan [4] Basis/Spread - Silicon Iron: Inner Mongolia - Main Contract basis was -170, with a daily increase of 8 and a weekly increase of 44; SF - SM spread was -212, with a daily increase of 4 and a weekly decrease of 14 [4] - Manganese Silicon: Inner Mongolia - Main Contract basis was -52, with a daily increase of 12 and a weekly increase of 30 [4] Raw Materials - Manganese Ore (Tianjin): South African semi - carbonate was 34 yuan/ton degree, unchanged on the day and week; Australian block was 40 yuan/ton degree, daily unchanged and weekly down 0.5 [4] - Lanthanum Coke Small Material: Prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were stable on the day and week [4] Group 3: Market Judgement Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Bottom - side oscillation [7] - Arbitrage: Gradually stop profit on spot - futures positive arbitrage [7] - Options: Sell straddle option combinations on rallies [7] Key Analysis - Silicon Iron: On September 3, spot prices were stable. Supply growth slowed but remained high; demand may face risks from poor steel destocking in September. Short - term supply - demand is stable, with bottom - side oscillation expected [6] - Manganese Silicon: On September 3, manganese ore and manganese silicon spot prices were stable. Supply growth narrowed but production was high; demand may have marginal improvement in September but faces risks from poor steel destocking. Cost is relatively firm, and short - term bottom - side oscillation is expected [6] Group 4: Important Information - On September 3, Tianjin Port's South African semi - carbonate Mn36.6% was quoted at 34 yuan/ton degree, South32 Australian block Mn41% at 39.8 yuan/ton degree, and Gabon block Mn50% at 40 yuan/ton degree [8] - The preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association showed that the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China in August were 1.079 million, a year - on - year increase of 5% [9] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts such as the trend of ferrous alloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM main contracts, the basis of silicon iron and manganese silicon, and the cost and profit of silicon iron and manganese silicon [15][17][21]

价格 2025/9/3 仓单 现货 盘面 铁合金早报 | 品种 | 项目 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5200 | 0 | -150 | 5500 | 主力合约 | 5528 | -4 | -128 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5250 | 0 | -100 | 5600 | 01合约 | 5488 | -8 | -148 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5250 | 50 | -100 | 5580 | 05合约 | 5622 | 2 | -142 | | | 陕西#72 | 5200 | 0 | -150 | 5500 | 09合约 | 5352 | 16 | -118 | | | 陕西#75 | 5950 | 50 | 50 | | 主力月基差 | -28 | 4 | -22 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 | 5450 | ...