1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the overall inventory accumulation rate narrowing compared to the previous period. Overseas shipments to the port remain at a high level, rubber prices are fluctuating downward, tire companies are stocking up moderately at low prices according to their rigid needs, and the overall procurement sentiment has slightly improved. The warehouse outbound volume has increased slightly month - on - month, but it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. In terms of demand, as the production of the previously overhauled enterprises gradually returns to the normal level, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased month - on - month, but the shipment pace of each tire enterprise is slow, and short - term production control behavior still exists, so the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,900 - 15,500 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,200 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15,065 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0; the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 5; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12,080 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 35; the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 15 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 20. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 20. The holding volume of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 123,959 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,189; the holding volume of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 29,787 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,914. The net holding of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 29,217, with a month - on - month decrease of 20; the net holding of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 6,229, with a month - on - month increase of 460. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 46,030 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 500; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 57,154 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 201 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole - latex in the Shanghai market is 14,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,815 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,810 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5. The price of Thai RMB - denominated mixed rubber is 14,380 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30; the price of Malaysian RMB - denominated mixed rubber is 14,330 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,600 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 365 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 685 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,806 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 74; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 741 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 54 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 59 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month change of 0; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) is 55.75 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.4; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 55 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.5; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lumps) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.85. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 125 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 23.2; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 43.2 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 70.2. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 61,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.5% (weekly), with a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 70.92% (weekly), with a month - on - month increase of 1.73 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.51 days (weekly), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 44.95 days (weekly), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.28 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 6.63 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 13.48% (daily), with a month - on - month increase of 0.28 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 16.55% (daily), with a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.34% (daily), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.66 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.33% (daily), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.66 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year, and a significant year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 488,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, with an increase rate of 1.49%. The bonded area inventory was 73,900 tons, an increase rate of 2.08%; the general trade inventory was 414,800 tons, an increase rate of 1.38%. As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a month - on - month increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points [2]

Market Overview - The rubber sector increased by 1.43% on December 8, with Kexin New Source leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3924.08, up 0.54%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13329.99, up 1.39% [1] Top Performers in Rubber Sector - Kexin New Source (300731) closed at 47.92, up 7.54% with a trading volume of 159,100 shares and a transaction value of 753 million [1] - Litong Technology (920225) closed at 33.78, up 3.68% with a trading volume of 39,800 shares and a transaction value of 132 million [1] - Kolong New Materials (920098) closed at 28.10, up 3.38% with a trading volume of 19,900 shares and a transaction value of 56.5 million [1] - Tongcheng New Materials (603650) closed at 44.09, up 3.16% with a trading volume of 253,500 shares and a transaction value of 1.109 billion [1] Underperformers in Rubber Sector - KQ Co., Ltd. (920665) closed at 14.13, down 2.55% with a trading volume of 77,200 shares and a transaction value of 111 million [2] - Sanlisi (002224) closed at 4.63, down 0.86% with a trading volume of 169,800 shares and a transaction value of 78.91 million [2] - Sanwei Co., Ltd. (603033) closed at 10.79, down 0.55% with a trading volume of 50,500 shares and a transaction value of 54.68 million [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The rubber sector saw a net inflow of 2.1947 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 16.3481 million [2] - The main stocks with significant capital inflow included Tongcheng New Materials (603650) with a net inflow of 50.0557 million [3] - Haida Co., Ltd. (300320) had a net inflow of 18.1101 million, while Litong Technology (920225) saw a net inflow of 10.9565 million [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 泰国天气逐步正常，橡胶震荡走弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-08 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 天然橡胶:泰国天气逐步正常，橡胶震荡走弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）国内产区：本周云南产区原料价格基本持稳，产区陆续进入全面停割期。海南产区降水天气增加，对割胶作业扰动增强，但随着气温下降整体原料产 出呈现季节性减量趋势，当地加工厂高价采购原料积极性走低，原料收购价格有所下调。（2）泰国产区：周内泰东北维持旺产期产出，杯胶价格继续回落； | | 供给 | 中性 | 泰南洪水逐渐消退，恢复割胶 及工厂生产，虽有抢原料，但供应增量预期施压原料，胶水价格走跌。（3）越南产区：越南产区天气逐步转好，中北部的极 | | | | 端天气影响减弱，因进口胶减少，工厂采购成本上移 ...

Group 1: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Information - The price of the BR main contract (12) on 12/5 was 10410, with a daily change of -45 and an interval change of 100 compared to 11/5 [3][12]. - The holding volume on 12/5 was 30197, with a daily change of -1872 and an interval change of -18607 [3][12]. - The trading volume on 12/5 was 65443, with a daily change of -26058 and an interval change of -58373 [3][12]. - The warrant quantity on 12/5 was 13320, with a daily change of -100 and an interval change of -2520 [3][12]. - The virtual - real ratio on 12/5 was 11.34, with a daily change of -1 and an interval change of -4 [3][12]. Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety - The cis - butadiene spread on 12/5 was 40, with a daily change of 45 and an interval change of -50 [3][12]. - The butadiene spread on 12/5 was 540, with a daily change of 45 and an interval change of -50 [3][12]. - The 12 - 01 spread on 12/5 was -35, with a daily change of 40 and an interval change of 60 [3][12]. - The 01 - 02 spread on 12/5 was -25, with a daily change of -30 and an interval change of -25 [3][12]. - The RU - BR spread on 12/5 was 4655, with a daily change of 70 and an interval change of -285 [3][12]. - The NR - BR spread on 12/5 was 1635, with a daily change of 120 and an interval change of -225 [3][12]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price on 12/5 was 10450, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of 50 [3][12]. - The Transfar market price on 12/5 was 10400, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of 150 [3][12]. - The Qilu ex - factory price on 12/5 was 10600, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of 200 [3][12]. - The CFR Northeast Asia price on 12/5 was 1300, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of -25 [3][12]. - The CFR Southeast Asia price on 12/5 was 1575, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of -25 [3][12]. Profit - The spot processing profit on 12/5 was 906, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of 101 [3][12]. - The import profit on 12/5 was -442, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of 250 [3][12]. - The export profit on 12/5 was 1401, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of -220 [3][12]. Group 2: BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - The Shandong market price on 12/5 was 7200 (the original text had an unclear value on 11/5), with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of -50 [3][12]. - The Jiangsu market price on 12/5 was 7050 (the original text had an unclear interval change value), with a daily change of 0 [3][12]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price on 12/5 was 7100, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of 0 [3][12]. - The CFR China price on 12/5 was 850, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of 30 [3][12]. Profit - The ethylene cracking profit on 12/3 was -65, and data for 12/4 and 12/5 were unavailable [3][12]. - The carbon - four extraction profit on 12/4 was 202, and data for 12/5 were unavailable [3][12]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on 12/5 was -1764, with a daily change of 0 and an interval change of 25 [3][12].

Core Viewpoint - Yanshan Petrochemical has received the Ecovadis Bronze Medal certification, becoming the first enterprise in the state-owned system within the rubber sector to achieve this honor [1] Group 1: Certification Details - The Ecovadis assessment system scores companies on a 100-point scale, focusing on four main themes: environment, economy, society, and governance [1] - The certification framework consists of three levels, seven indicators, and 21 topics, with the score reflecting the company's level of sustainable development [1] Group 2: Improvement and Collaboration - Since the initiation of this certification in 2023, Yanshan Petrochemical's score has been increasing year by year [1] - The 2025 certification process took seven months, led by the production department, involving 15 departments, the synthetic rubber plant, and the material handling center [1] - Multiple training sessions were conducted to address issues and improve technical modifications, with expert one-on-one guidance contributing to the achievement of the certification goal [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber futures market is expected to experience weak and volatile trading in the short term. The market sentiment is boosted by the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, but there is an expectation of looser supply, weakening cost support, good but weakening terminal consumption, and continuous seasonal inventory accumulation in the domestic market [8][9][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of natural rubber futures changed from RU2601 to RU2605, with prices ranging from 14,910 to 15,475 yuan/ton, showing a weak and volatile trend with a significant overall decline. As of the close on December 5, 2025, the main contract closed at 15,065 yuan/ton, down 380 points or 2.46% for the week [6][15]. Spot Price - As of December 5, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,650 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 18,050 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [20]. - The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,060 US dollars/ton as of December 5, 2025, down 60 US dollars/ton from the previous week [24]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis slightly expanded compared to the previous week. As of December 5, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 415 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous week [26]. - The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both significantly declined compared to the previous week as of December 5, 2025 [29]. Important Market Information - US economic data: In November, the "small non - farm" employment in the US reached the largest decline in two and a half years, the initial jobless claims unexpectedly decreased, the ISM manufacturing PMI declined, the ISM services PMI rose, and there were significant changes in employment and lay - off data [30][31]. - Global economic forecasts: The OECD expects global economic growth rates of 3.2% and 2.9% in the next two years, while the UNCTAD expects the global economic growth to slow down to 2.6% in 2025 [31][32]. - Chinese economic data: In November, China's manufacturing PMI rose slightly, non - manufacturing PMI declined, and the comprehensive PMI output index declined. There were also changes in the real estate market, consumer goods, and the automotive market [33][34][35]. Supply - side Situation - As of October 31, 2025, the total output of major natural rubber - producing countries was 1.071 million tons, a 3.45% increase from the previous month. The output of Thailand and China decreased slightly, while that of Malaysia, India, and Vietnam increased slightly [42]. - As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 782,000 tons, a 12.5% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative output was 7.387 million tons, a 10.9% year - on - year increase [45][48]. - As of October 31, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,300 tons, a 12.26% month - on - month decrease [51]. Demand - side Situation - As of December 4, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 70.92%, up 1.73% from the previous week, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 63.5%, up 0.17% from the previous week [54]. - As of October 31, 2025, China's automobile monthly output was 3.3587 million vehicles, a 12.09% year - on - year and 2.53% month - on - month increase; monthly sales were 3.3221 million vehicles, an 8.82% year - on - year and 2.97% month - on - month increase [58][61]. - As of October 31, 2025, China's heavy - truck monthly sales were 106,199 vehicles, a 60.02% year - on - year and 0.58% month - on - month increase [66]. - As of October 31, 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 97.951 million pieces, a 2.5% year - on - year decrease; the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 51.73 million pieces, an 8.11% month - on - month decrease [69][74]. Inventory - side Situation - As of December 5, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the SHFE was 45,530 tons, an increase of 4,130 tons from the previous week. - As of November 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.102 million tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous month. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 2.5%, and that of light - colored rubber increased by 1.3%. - As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 481,600 tons, a 2.71% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 0.69%, and the general trade inventory increased by 3.07% [81]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The global natural rubber production areas are still in the peak supply season. With the weakening of weather disturbances in Vietnam and Thailand, the supply of raw materials is expected to increase. The domestic production areas will enter the non - production season, and the supply elasticity will weaken, with relatively firm raw material rubber prices and cost support for rubber. In October 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 1.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to October increased by 17.2% year - on - year [83]. - Demand: The operating rates of tire enterprises increased slightly, but the overall downstream demand increment was limited, and enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases, which could not strongly support the upstream rubber prices. In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and heavy - truck sales in November increased significantly year - on - year. The export volume of rubber tires in the first 10 months increased slightly year - on - year. As the weather turns cold, the demand for all - steel tires in the replacement market is expected to weaken [84][85]. - Inventory: The SHFE inventory increased slightly last week, and the social inventory and Qingdao's total inventory of natural rubber continued to rise, with an increasing inventory accumulation rate [84][85]. Viewpoints and Operation Strategies - This week's view: The main contract of natural rubber futures is expected to experience weak and volatile trading in the short term. - Operation strategies: For single - side trading, consider shorting at high prices; for arbitrage, pay attention to the 01 - 05 reverse spread opportunity; for options, temporarily wait and see [10][88][89].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when oil prices fall [2]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market is in short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals have some pressure. It is expected to consolidate at a low level, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [4]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term, and supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and there is support at the bottom. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [6]. - For rubber, a neutral - bullish view is taken. It is recommended to buy on dips with a short - term trading approach and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the supply is strong while the demand is weak in China. The fundamentals are poor, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended before substantial production cuts in the industry [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, it may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips [28]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand is likely to maintain a high level in the short term. It is recommended to look for long - buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak in the medium term. It is recommended to short on rallies [31]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.53%, to 453.70 yuan/barrel; related refined oil futures also had varying degrees of increase [6]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when oil prices fall [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 25, while those in Lunan and Inner Mongolia remained stable. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 36 yuan to 2077 yuan/ton, with a basis of +10 and a 1 - 5 spread of +2, reporting - 4 [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the fundamentals have some pressure and are expected to consolidate at a low level [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong increased by 10, while those in Henan and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 1673 yuan, with a basis of +27 and a 1 - 5 spread of - 6, reporting - 63 [6]. - **Strategy**: Consider buying on dips as the supply - demand situation has improved and there is support at the bottom [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber was oscillating weakly. The warehouse receipts of the exchange's RU inventory were low. The start - up rate of tire factories was sluggish [8][9]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral - bullish strategy, buy on dips with a short - term trading approach, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PVC decreased by 74 yuan to 4426 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4410 (- 50) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 (+24) yuan/ton and a 1 - 5 spread of - 291 (- 9) yuan/ton. The overall start - up rate was 79.9%, a decrease of 0.3% month - on - month [14]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies before substantial production cuts in the industry due to strong supply and weak demand [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene increased, and the basis decreased. The spot and futures prices of styrene decreased, and the basis increased. The upstream start - up rate decreased, and the port inventory of styrene increased significantly [18]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene when the inventory reversal point appears [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price of polyethylene decreased by 109 yuan/ton to 6674 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 6740 yuan/ton. The basis was 64 yuan/ton, strengthening by 29 yuan. The upstream start - up rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [21]. - **Strategy**: Short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies as the long - term contradiction has shifted [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price of polypropylene decreased by 65 yuan/ton to 6287 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 6360 yuan/ton. The basis was 70 yuan/ton, strengthening by 15 yuan. The upstream start - up rate increased, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the change in the supply - surplus pattern in the cost side in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PX decreased by 84 yuan to 6786 yuan. The CFR price decreased by 7 dollars to 838 dollars. The load in China and Asia decreased slightly. The inventory increased month - on - month in October [27]. - **Strategy**: Look for long - buying opportunities on dips as it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PTA decreased by 46 yuan to 4678 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 20 yuan to 4670 yuan. The basis was - 32 yuan (0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 74 yuan (- 4). The load remained flat, and the downstream load increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy**: Look for long - buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of ethylene glycol decreased by 103 yuan to 3723 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 63 yuan to 3759 yuan. The basis was - 15 yuan (- 8), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 109 yuan (- 15). The supply load decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the medium term as the supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber market shows a pattern of decreasing supply in China and increasing supply overseas, with price fluctuations and inventory accumulation. The synthetic rubber market, especially the butadiene rubber segment, has sufficient supply and a decreasing inventory trend. The downstream consumption of the rubber sector shows a phenomenon where the farther from rubber, the stronger the data growth, while the closer data has not yet stabilized [3][35]. - The report provides trading strategies for rubber futures, including holding short - positions in RU01, NR01, and BR02 contracts, holding the spread position of RU2601 - NR2601, and adopting a wait - and - see approach for options [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Spot Prices**: The average price of natural rubber in the RMB market has a narrow adjustment. The average price of Shanghai full - latex is 14,845 yuan/ton, and the average price of STR20 mixed rubber in the Shandong market is 14,543 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 in North China is 10,000 yuan/ton, and the average price is 10,030 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: For natural rubber, domestic supply decreases while overseas supply increases. The Yunnan production area has stopped tapping, and Hainan's output is affected by rainfall. Overseas, the weather in northeastern Thailand is normal, while the southern part and the Vietnamese production area are affected by rainfall. The average operating load of domestic high - cis butadiene rubber plants is 71.05%, with the Zhenhua New Materials plant increasing its load and the Maoming Petrochemical plant under maintenance [3]. - **Demand**: The price of natural rubber fluctuates within a range and moves downward. Downstream buyers make rigid - demand purchases at low prices, but the overall purchasing enthusiasm of factories is average due to the bearish expectation. The operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises is 62.99%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points from last week [3]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao is 475,000 tons, an increase of 12,600 tons or 2.72% from the previous period. The general trade inventory is 400,500 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons or 3.14%. The butadiene rubber inventory continues to decline, with a decrease of 8.02% [3]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral Trading**: Hold short - positions in the RU01 contract with a stop - loss at the recent high of 15,270 points; hold short - positions in the NR01 contract with a stop - loss at the recent high of 12,105 points; hold short - positions in the BR02 contract with a stop - loss at the recent high of 10,600 points [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the spread position of RU2601 - NR2601 (1 lot to 1 lot) at + 3085 points, and set a stop - loss at the recent low of + 3065 points [4]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]. 3.3 Thailand Rubber Situation - **Price and Relationship with RU**: Since December, the price of Thai latex has dropped to 55.5 baht/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 25.5%, with the decline narrowing and two consecutive months of marginal strengthening, which is bullish for the RU unilateral position. The "divergence" time point with RU is around March 2023. In November, the price of Thai cup lump dropped to 48.2 baht/kg, and the latex - cup lump spread is + 7.28 baht/kg, a year - on - year weakening of 2.69 baht/kg, still in a 13 - month marginal weakening trend. The "divergence" time point with RU is around March 2022 [7][12]. - **Rainfall**: Since November, Thailand has experienced severe floods due to heavy rainfall. Last week, the weighted rainfall for natural rubber production reached 39.01 mm/day, a record high since March 2011. However, this week, the rainfall has rapidly dropped to 1.05 mm/day, and the impact of abnormal weather is rapidly fading, with the market starting to trade on the expectation of increased production after heavy rain [17]. 3.4 Climate Data - In November, the Southern Oscillation Index rose to 12.5 points for two consecutive months, a year - on - year increase of 6.0 points; from September to November, the El Niño index cooled to - 0.6°C for six consecutive months, a year - on - year cooling of 0.3°C. The climate data has fallen back, which is bearish [21]. 3.5 African Rubber as a Substitute for NR - African rubber will be a substitute for the NR contract. The Shanghai Futures Exchange will announce the premium or discount (most likely a discount). If the discount is large, it will not attract sellers for delivery, having a small impact on the existing contract. If the discount is small or at par, it will attract a large amount of delivery due to delivery profit, thus having a greater impact on the current pricing of the NR contract [26]. 3.6 Rubber Downstream Consumption - **Stock Index**: As of December 2025, the CSI 1000 Index has fallen to 729 points for two consecutive months, a year - on - year increase of 41.6% [35]. - **Automobile Industry**: In November 2025, the European automobile industry index rebounded slightly to - 29.7 points, a year - on - year increase of 39.9 points, and has been increasing year - on - year for five consecutive months [35]. - **Rubber and Plastics Industry Electricity Consumption**: In September 2025, the electricity consumption of the domestic rubber and plastics industry increased for four consecutive months, reaching 17.71 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.9%, the highest since January 2024 [35]. - **Tire Production**: In October 2025, the cumulative production of domestic and foreign tires increased by 1.0% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [35]. 3.7 Synthetic Rubber Supply and Profit - **Butadiene Profit**: According to Longzhong Information data, during this period, the profit of the C4 extraction process is 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109 yuan/ton from the previous period; the profit of the oxidative dehydrogenation process is - 1709 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous period. The price of raw material naphtha has risen, increasing the cost pressure on butadiene, and the price of Sinopec's butadiene has remained stable, reducing the extraction process profit. The oxidative dehydrogenation and coal - to - oil processes have increased their process profits due to the firm supply price [44]. - **Butadiene Rubber Production Profit**: According to Longzhong Information data, during this period, the theoretical production cost of butadiene rubber has slightly increased, the ex - factory price and market price have slightly increased, and the theoretical production profit generally remains at a high level [44]. 3.8 Synthetic Rubber Inventory - As of December 3, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory is 32,300 tons, a decrease of 100 tons or 0.34% from the previous period. It is expected that the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises next week will be 32,000 tons, a slight decrease from this period. After the hype atmosphere of raw materials and natural rubber cools down, the premium space in the butadiene market is expected to narrow, and the inventory level is expected to gradually shift from the factory end to the middle and lower reaches [52]. 3.9 Synthetic Rubber Apparent Consumption - In October, the apparent consumption of butadiene decreased for two consecutive months to 490,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, with the growth rate narrowing. Since September 2024, there has been a trend of incremental growth. In October, the apparent consumption of butadiene rubber increased for two consecutive months to 142,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.9%, and three consecutive months of marginal growth. Since October 2024, there has been a trend of incremental growth [69]. 3.10 Natural Rubber Supply - In October, the total production of natural rubber in the ANRPC increased to 1.144 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%, with the growth rate narrowing; the total export volume increased to 826,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9%, and the growth rate has been narrowing for four consecutive months [78]. 3.11 Natural Rubber Inventory - This week, the futures warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber has increased. As of Thursday this week, the total futures warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber is 45,700 tons, an increase of 4300 tons from the previous period. The total futures warehouse receipt inventory of 20 - rubber is 56,500 tons, an increase of 5200 tons from the previous period. As of the week of November 28, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao is 475,000 tons, an increase of 12,600 tons or 2.72% from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in the bonded area is 74,500 tons, an increase of 400 tons or 0.54%, and the general trade inventory is 400,500 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons or 3.14% [83][84]. 3.12 Mixed Rubber Basis - In October, domestic mixed rubber imports were 261,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%, and a marginal decrease for three consecutive months, which is bullish for the mixed rubber basis. In October, global automobile sales increased to 8.64 million vehicles for two consecutive months, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, and a marginal increase for nine consecutive months, which is bullish for the mixed rubber basis. In October, the domestic manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%; the US manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2% for two consecutive months, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. The growth rate of the Sino - US manufacturing PMI has declined marginally for two consecutive months, which is bullish for the mixed rubber basis. In October, domestic commercial vehicle production decreased to 364,000 vehicles, and passenger vehicle production increased to 2.995 million vehicles for three consecutive months. In October, South Korean commercial vehicle production decreased to 18,000 vehicles for two consecutive months, and passenger vehicle production decreased to 285,000 vehicles. The Sino - Korean automobile production has increased marginally for two consecutive months, which is bearish for the mixed rubber basis [93]. 3.13 Tire Consumption - As of December 4, the average inventory turnover days of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 44.95 days, a decrease of 0.28 days from the previous period and an increase of 5.38 days year - on - year; the average inventory turnover days of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 39.51 days, a decrease of 0.44 days from the previous period and a decrease of 1.79 days year - on - year [94]. - In the semi - steel tire market, the market trading is weak during the month - end period. The all - season tire market is weakly stable, and at the end of the month, distributors have replenishment needs according to the task volume, with general channel sales. The snow tire market has sufficient supply, and the demand needs further improvement. In the all - steel tire market, the market trading is dull, affected by the seasonal off - season, the market demand has further weakened. With relatively sufficient market supply, the focus is on digesting existing inventory, and the purchase enthusiasm is average. The market transaction price is stable with a downward trend, and some merchants have promotional activities according to their own inventory [100].

Core Viewpoint - The Cameroonian government aims to increase palm oil production by 20,500 tons by 2026, supported by new financing agreements totaling 51.7 billion CFA francs (approximately 9.2 million USD) with Standard Chartered Bank for the construction of a rubber and palm oil processing plant [1] Group 1: Production Goals and Financing - The target of increasing palm oil production is set against the backdrop of new financing [1] - The funds will be utilized to build a palm oil processing plant and a rubber processing plant under the Cameroon Development Corporation (CDC) [1] Group 2: Current Production and Demand - Domestic crude palm oil production reached 77,630 tons, nearly three times that of the previous quarter, influenced by the agricultural peak season [1] - Despite the increase in production, the industry still fails to meet domestic demand, with a year-on-year production decline of 10.6% [1] - The government projects a 2% decrease in total production for the year 2025 [1] Group 3: Structural Supply Gap - In 2024, Cameroon is expected to produce 446,984 tons of crude palm oil, significantly below local market demand [1] - There is a structural supply gap exceeding 500,000 tons per year, leading to a high dependency on imports [1] - From 2017 to 2023, Cameroon imported 40,900 tons of palm oil, with import expenditures amounting to 280.4 billion CFA francs (approximately 49.7 million USD) [1]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价震荡反弹，其中 WTI 1 月合约收盘上涨 0.72 美元至 59.67 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.22%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.59 美元至 63.26 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 0.94%。SC2601 以 456.5 元/桶收盘，上涨 5.2 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 1.15%。由于严重风暴和近期的无人机袭击扰乱了装载 | | | | 作业，俄罗斯黑海港口 Novorossiysk 港和里海管道联盟 CPC 终端 | | | | 11 月的石油出口量较原计划减少约 100 万吨。行业人士称， | | | | Novorossiysk 港 11 月乌拉尔原油、西伯利亚轻质原油和 KEBCO | | | | 原油的装船计划量约为 320 万吨，但实际出口仅达到约 250 万吨。 | | | 原油 | 市场调查结果显示，尽管 OPEC 同意提高 11 月份的原油产量， | 震荡 | | | 但由 ...