Gasoil月差结构(美元/吨) 50 25 40 20 15 10 5 0 0 -10 r -20 -10 -30 -15 202502 202505 2025 3DSCO2 1500 205504 707585 MI-M6 - M1-M6 - 41-M2 MI-M9 M1-M2 - - M1-M3 - - M1-M9 M1-M3 321裂解价差(美元/桶) 532裂解价差 (美元/桶) 70.00 70.00 60.00 60.00 50.00 50.00 40.00 40.00 30.00 30.00 20.00 20.00 10.00 10.00 000 0.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 - 2025 -2022 -- 2023 -- 2024 -- 2024 -- 2024 -- -2021 - -2022 -- 2023 -- 2024 -- 202 -2021 - - 2025 亚洲石脑油裂解 (美元/桶) | 美国汽油裂解 (美元/桶) 20.00 70.00 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Each option variety's strategy report includes analysis of the underlying market, research on option factors, and option strategy recommendations [8]. - The overall strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts, such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil SC2507 is 468, with a price increase of 3 and a price change rate of 0.69% [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of various option varieties are provided. The volume PCR and open interest PCR are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For example, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.75 with a change of - 0.23, and the open interest PCR is 0.75 with a change of - 0.00 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of option underlying are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 570 and the support level is 400 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The report shows the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, change in weighted implied volatility, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of various option varieties. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 28.69%, and the weighted implied volatility is 31.72% with a change of - 1.34% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions for Each Option Variety 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: Fundamentally, OPEC+ plans to increase supply, but the actual increase is limited, and US shale oil production has recovered. The market has shown a pattern of short - term recovery followed by a decline. Option strategies include constructing a short neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The expected Saudi CP prices are rising. The market is in a weak and bearish state. Strategies involve constructing a short bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: Port inventory is decreasing, and the market has shown a pattern of recent increase followed by a decline. Strategies include a bull call spread strategy, a short neutral call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory is decreasing, and the market is in a short - term bullish state. Strategies include a bull call spread strategy, a short volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: PP production enterprise inventory is decreasing, and the market has shown a pattern of recent increase followed by a decline. Strategies include a bull call spread strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: Natural rubber social inventory has a slight increase. The market has shown a pattern of recent increase followed by a decline. Strategies include a bull call spread strategy and a short neutral call + put option combination strategy [11]. 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: PTA and polyester loads are rising. The market is in a bullish state with high - level fluctuations. Strategies include a bull call spread strategy and a short bullish call + put option combination strategy [12]. 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: Downstream demand is weak, and inventory pressure is high. The market is in a short - term volatile state. Strategies include a short bearish strangle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The start - up rate is decreasing, and inventory is rising. The market is in a weak bearish state. Strategies include a bear put spread strategy, a short neutral call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.7 Other Options - **Urea**: Enterprise inventory is decreasing, and the market has shown a pattern of recent increase followed by a shock. Strategies include a bull call spread strategy, a short neutral call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]. 3.6 Option Charts - For each option variety, there are price trend charts, volume and open interest charts, open interest PCR and trading volume PCR charts, implied volatility charts, historical volatility cone charts, and charts showing pressure and support levels, providing visual data for market analysis [16][37][57] etc.

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: May 21, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoint - On May 20, 2025, the main contracts of plastic and PP in the futures market closed down. The supply side has short - term pressure due to intensive upstream petrochemical maintenance, and the demand side has weak downstream indicators. Although there may be some improvement in demand, the polyolefin market is mainly digesting the previous gains [5][7]. Market Quotes Futures Market - L2509 of plastics opened low, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed down at 7222 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.33%), with a trading volume of 310,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2,179 to 511,907 lots. PP2509 closed at 7047 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan (-0.65%), and the open interest increased by 12,000 lots to 426,777 lots [5][7]. - Other contracts such as plastic 2601, 2605, PP2601, and PP2605 also showed different degrees of decline [7]. Spot Market - The domestic PP market continued to operate weakly, with a decline of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The PE market price continued to decline slightly, with different price changes in different regions and varieties [7]. Supply and Demand Analysis Supply Side - Upstream petrochemical maintenance is intensive, and the short - term supply pressure is obvious. The maintenance loss is at a high level compared with the same period. PE plans to add 700,000 tons of production capacity from May to June, and the supply pressure will be realized in the third quarter. PP has no production plan in May, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of Sinopec Zhenhai Refining and Chemical's plant in June [5]. Demand Side - The demand for agricultural films has changed from strong to weak, and the operating loads of packaging, film, injection molding, etc. have decreased month - on - month. The indicators of PP downstream fields are weaker than those of the same period last year. Some enterprises that suspended production due to high tariffs have resumed operation, and the phenomenon of rush - export within the 90 - day buffer period may drive the demand to improve [5]. Future Outlook - As the macro - sentiment fades, plastics and PP have risen and then fallen back. There is still pressure in the upper gap. Although the spot atmosphere has warmed up, the actual high - price transactions are limited. The improvement of orders from downstream product manufacturers remains to be seen, and polyolefins are mainly digesting the previous gains [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable and positive economic environment in China amidst a turbulent international situation, advocating for a moderately loose monetary policy to support effective financing needs of the real economy [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock indices experienced slight declines, with the beauty care sector leading gains and the defense sector lagging [2][8]. - The total trading volume in the market reached 1.21 trillion yuan, with notable increases in financing balances [2][8]. - Current valuation levels of major indices in China remain low, suggesting a favorable cost-performance ratio for medium to long-term capital allocation [2][8]. Group 2: Bond Market - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose to 1.665%, with a net injection of 177 billion yuan by the central bank [3][9]. - The LPR was lowered by 10 basis points, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [5][9]. - The overall economic environment is still in a transition phase, with real estate investment continuing to decline [3][9]. Group 3: Commodity Insights - Copper prices saw an increase, driven by stable domestic demand and growth in power investment [3][16]. - Gold imports in China surged by 73% in April, reaching a new high for the past 11 months, indicating strong demand in the precious metals market [6]. - The aluminum market is facing potential supply issues due to geopolitical factors, while nickel prices are expected to remain stable amid tight supply conditions [19][20]. Group 4: Agricultural Products - The soybean market is experiencing a recovery in supply due to increased imports, while domestic soybean meal supply is expected to rise significantly [26]. - Corn prices are on a downward trend, influenced by high inventory levels and weak downstream demand [27]. - Cotton prices are fluctuating due to macroeconomic factors and ongoing trade negotiations, with a focus on new order developments [28]. Group 5: Shipping Index - The European shipping index is experiencing fluctuations, with recent price adjustments reflecting a return to fundamental market conditions [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **LLDPE & PP**: The overall trading was weak on Monday, and market sentiment deteriorated. For plastics, maintenance increased and some production shifted before early June, with low imports. Demand improved in the short - term due to tariff cuts, and there was an expectation of inventory reduction. For PP, the maintenance peak was in late May, and subsequent supply pressure would increase. Demand had short - term benefits but mid - term concerns. The static fundamentals were okay. For single - side trading, it was advisable to go short on rallies, and the LP spread was expected to widen [4]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: For caustic soda, in the short - term, supply pressure was limited during the concentrated maintenance period. Demand was supported by the potential resumption of some alumina production and new production lines. The purchase price of mainstream Shandong factories increased, and the futures price might rise further, but there were risks. It was recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors could try positive spreads cautiously. For PVC, the short - term rebound was supported by macro - stimulation, export, and supply - demand factors, but there was an over - supply pressure in the long - term. It was expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with a resistance level of around 5100 for the 09 contract [26]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: For PX, short - term supply was tight, and demand was supported, but the upside was limited. PX09 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 6600 - 7000, and PX9 - 1 was in a short - term positive spread situation. For PTA, the supply - demand situation was expected to weaken. TA09 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 4600 - 5000, and TA9 - 1 was short - term positive spread and medium - term negative spread. For MEG, there was an expectation of inventory reduction, and short - term support was strong. It was advisable to sell put options on EG2509 - P - 4300 and go for positive spreads on EG9 - 1. For short - fiber, the absolute price was expected to adjust, and attention could be paid to the opportunity to widen the processing margin. For bottle - chips, the absolute price followed the raw materials, and attention could be paid to the opportunity to widen the processing margin at the lower end of the range [30]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices were oscillating, and the future logic would shift from macro to fundamental factors. If OPEC's actual production increase was as expected, the market would be under pressure; otherwise, the pressure would be relieved. There was still a short - term geopolitical premium. Oil prices were likely to fluctuate within a certain range. The recommended trading strategy was a band - trading approach, with the WTI range at [59, 69], Brent at [61, 71], and SC at [450, 510]. It was advisable to buy volatility in options trading [34]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory showed an inflection point, and the expected increase in imports would lead to inventory accumulation and a weaker basis. The 09 contract was expected to decline in the short - term, and it was advisable to add positions at 2350, targeting 2050 - 2100. It was also advisable to reduce short - positions on the 69 reverse spread [37]. - **Styrene**: Styrene rebounded strongly. Tariff cuts improved demand expectations, and the inventory was at a low level. However, there were risks, including high inventory in the 3S products and weak pure - benzene supply - demand. It was expected to fluctuate in the short - term and be bearish in the medium - term. Attention could be paid to the resistance level of 7800 - 7900 for the near - month contract, and the opportunity for the EB - BZ spread to widen [42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PE & PP Price and Spread - **PE Futures**: L2505 closed at 7330 on May 19, down 190 (- 2.53%) from May 16; L2509 closed at 7238, up 2 (0.03%) [1]. - **PP Futures**: PP2505 closed at 7137 on May 19, down 111 (- 1.53%) from May 16; PP2509 closed at 7078, down 15 (- 0.21%) [1]. - **Spreads**: L2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 192 (- 67.61%) to 92; PP2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 96 (- 61.94%) to 59 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: East China PP拉丝 spot price was 7160 on May 19, down 10 (- 0.14%); North China LLDPE film material spot price was 7300, unchanged [1]. 3.2 PE & PP Upstream and Downstream开工率 and库存 - **PE开工率**: PE device开工率 was 79.5% on May 16, down 4.55 (- 5.41%) from the previous value; PE downstream weighted开工率 was 39.3%, up 0.57 (1.47%) [2]. - **PE库存**: PE enterprise inventory was 52.8 million tons on May 16, down 4.76 (- 8.27%) from the previous value; PE social inventory was 61.1 million tons, down 0.71 (- 1.15%) [2]. - **PP开工率**: PP device开工率 was 76.6% on May 16, down 3.19 (- 4.0%) from the previous value; PP downstream weighted开工率 was 49.8%, up 0.33 (0.7%) [3]. - **PP库存**: PP enterprise inventory was 60.4 million tons on May 16, down 7.20 (- 10.64%) from the previous value; PP trader inventory was 15.9 million tons, up 1.61 (11.28%) [3]. 3.3 PVC & Caustic Soda Price and Spread - **Caustic Soda**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price was 2625 on May 19, up 31.3 (1.2%); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price was 2800, up 40.0 (1.4%) [25]. - **PVC**: East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price was 4840 on May 19, unchanged; East China ethylene - based PVC market price was 5050, unchanged [25]. - **Futures**: SH2505 was 2563 on May 19, up 36.0 (1.4%); SH2509 was 2586, up 51.0 (2.0%); V2505 was 4834, up 14.0 (0.3%); V2509 was 4959, up 12.0 (0.2%) [25]. 3.4 PVC & Caustic Soda Supply, Demand and库存 - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry开工率 was 85.8% on May 16, down 1.7 (- 1.9%); PVC total开工率 was 74.0%, down 3.8 (- 4.9%) [25]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry开工率 was 77.0% on May 16, down 2.7 (- 3.3%); viscose staple fiber industry开工率 was 80.7%, down 0.3 (- 0.4%); printing and dyeing industry开机率 was 63.2%, up 2.6 (4.2%) [25][26]. - **库存**: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 19.4 million tons on May 15, up 0.1 (0.3%); PVC upstream factory inventory was 40.6 million tons, down 2.0 (- 4.7%); PVC total social inventory was 39.7 million tons, down 1.3 (- 3.1%) [26]. 3.5 Polyester Industry Chain Price and Spread - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) was 65.54 on May 16, up 0.13 (0.2%); WTI crude oil (June) was 62.69, up 0.3% [30]. - **Downstream Polyester Products**: POY150/48 price was 7025 on May 16, down 25 (- 0.4%); FDY150/96 price was 7310, unchanged [30]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX was 841 on May 19, up 2 (0.2%); PX spot price (RMB) was 6971, down 66 (- 0.9%) [30]. 3.6 Polyester Industry Chain开工率 and库存 - **开工率**: Asian PX开工率 was 67.5% on May 16, down 3.3 (- 4.7%); China PX开工率 was 74.1%, down 4.5 (- 5.7%); PTA开工率 was 73.0%, up 3.9% [30]. - **库存**: MEG port inventory was 75.1 million tons on May 19, down 0.8 (- 1.1%); MEG to - port expectation was 10.9 million tons, up 5.4 [30]. 3.7 Crude Oil Price and Spread - **Crude Oil**: Brent was 65.54 on May 20, up 0.13 (0.20%) from May 19; WTI was 62.75, up 0.06 (0.10%) [34]. - **Spreads**: Brent M1 - M3 was 1.30 on May 20, up 0.18 (16.07%); WTI M1 - M3 was 1.20, unchanged; SC M1 - M3 was 3.00, down 1.20 (- 28.57%) [34]. 3.8 Crude Oil Product Price and Spread - **Prices**: NYM RBOB was 214.07 on May 20, up 0.19 (0.09%) from May 19; NYM ULSD was 213.04, up 0.27 (0.13%); ICE Gasoil was 617.25, down 1.75 (- 0.28%) [34]. - **Spreads**: RBOB M1 - M3 was 7.87 on May 20, down 0.14 (- 1.75%); ULSD M1 - M3 was 5.00, unchanged; Gasoil M1 - M3 was 9.00, up 1.00 (12.50%) [34]. 3.9 Methanol Price and Spread - **Futures**: MA2505 closed at 2300 on May 19, down 53 (- 2.25%) from May 16; MA2509 closed at 2272, down 12 (- 0.53%) [37]. - **Spreads**: MA2505 - 2509 spread was 28 on May 19, down 41 (- 59.42%) from May 16 [37]. - **Spot Prices**: Inner Mongolia northern line spot price was 2073 on May 19, down 58 (- 2.70%); Henan Luoyang spot price was 2210, down 20 (- 0.90%); Port Taicang spot price was 2340, down 33 (- 1.37%) [37]. 3.10 Methanol库存 and开工率 - **库存**: Methanol enterprise inventory was 33.777% on May 16, up 3.4 (11.14%) from the previous value; Methanol port inventory was 48.4 million tons, down 7.8 (- 13.88%) [37]. - **开工率**: Upstream domestic enterprise开工率 was 75.5% on May 16, down 0.2 (- 0.20%); Downstream external - procurement MTO device开工率 was 75.68%, up 8.5 (12.67%) [37]. 3.11 Styrene Price and Spread - **Upstream**: Brent crude oil (June) was 65.5 on May 19, up 0.1 (0.2%); CFR Japan naphtha was 569.0, up 4.0 (0.7%) [39]. - **Spot & Futures**: Styrene East China spot price was 8025 on May 19, up 75.0 (0.9%); EB2506 was 7779.0, up 118.0 (1.5%); EB2507 was 7613.0, up 109.0 (1.5%) [40]. - **Import & Profit**: Styrene CFR China was 946.0 on May 19, up 14.0 (1.5%); Styrene import profit was 96.6, up 106.5 (1079.4%) [41]. 3.12 Styrene产业链开工率 and库存 - **开工率**: Domestic pure - benzene comprehensive开工率 was 70.7% on May 16, down 2.6 (- 3.5%); Styrene开工率 was 71.3%, down 0.9 (- 1.3%) [42]. - **库存**: Pure - benzene port inventory was 12.3 on May 15, up 0.3 (2.5%); Styrene port inventory was 9.3, down 0.5 (- 4.9%) [42].

Cost Side - LPG prices have become the most significant marginal variable for PP costs, especially after the commissioning of numerous PDH-based PP plants post-2022, reducing the impact of coal-based processes on PP [2] - From July to September 2023, LPG prices surged from 3,800 RMB/ton to 5,660 RMB/ton, an increase of nearly 50%, leading to a corresponding rise in PP prices from 6,900 RMB/ton to 8,100 RMB/ton, approximately a 17% increase [2] - The LL-PP price spread decreased significantly from 855 RMB/ton in July to 392 RMB/ton, a drop of 54% [2] - LPG valuation is currently much higher than that of crude oil and naphtha, suggesting that even with OPEC+ production increases leading to lower crude prices, LPG is expected to decline more sharply, further driving down PP prices and widening the LL-PP spread [2] Supply Side - The production mismatch between PP and LL is expected to accelerate the widening of the LL-PP spread, with a total PP production plan of 3.7 million tons, including nearly 2.2 million tons in June, while LL has only 1.4 million tons planned for the entire year [10] - The production mismatch in June 2023 mirrors that of 2022, with a significant 200,000 tons capacity mismatch, leading to expectations of a widening LL-PP spread starting from late May to early June [10] Export Side - In 2024, PP export volumes are expected to double year-on-year, reaching an average of 180,000 tons per month, marking a significant development for PP exports [11] - However, due to fluctuations caused by the U.S. "tariff sanctions" policy, PP export volumes have decreased compared to last year, which may support a bullish outlook for the LL-PP spread [11]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价先跌后反弹，其中 WTI 6 月合约收盘上涨 0.2 美元至 | | | | 62.69 美元/桶，涨幅 0.32%。布伦特 7 月合约收盘上涨 0.13 美元 | | | | 至 65.54 美元/桶，涨幅 0.2%。SC2507 以 465.4 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 4 元/桶，涨幅 0.87%。特朗普周一与俄罗斯总统普京通话后表示， | | | | 俄乌将"立即"开始就结束冲突进行谈判。克里姆林宫表示，两 | | | | 人并没有讨论俄方与乌克兰停火的潜在时间表。伊朗计划在 | | | | Kharg Island 出口码头增加了 200 万桶的原油储存能力，自 5 月 17 | | | 原油 | 日起生效。美伊核谈判的不确定性加剧市场波动。G7 于 2022 年 | 震荡 | | | 12 月达成价上限机制，禁止油轮运输交易价格高于每桶 60 美元 | | | | 的俄罗斯原油，并禁止相关实体为俄石油运输提供保 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The LL - PP spread has completed bottom - building, and the upward breakthrough of the platform is a reversal signal. This is supported by three aspects: high LPG valuation on the cost side, the largest annual production mismatch between LL and PP in June on the supply side, and the decline in PP export volume year - on - year [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cost Side - After the large - scale commissioning of PDH - made PP plants since 2022, the impact of coal - based processes on PP has gradually weakened, and LPG price fluctuations have become the most important marginal variable on the PP cost side, while the PE cost side is still dominated by crude - oil - based processes [3]. - In 2023, the low water level of the Panama Canal affected the LPG volume shipped from the US East to China. From July to September 2023, the LPG price rose from 3,800 yuan/ton to 5,660 yuan/ton (nearly 50% increase), the PP price rose from 6,900 yuan/ton to 8,100 yuan/ton (about 17% increase), and the LL - PP spread dropped from 855 yuan/ton in July to 392 yuan/ton (a decline of - 54%) [3]. - Currently, LPG valuation is much higher than that of crude oil and naphtha. Even if the OPEC+ meeting in June decides to increase production and cause the crude oil price to decline, LPG, as a high - valuation variety, should fall more, driving a greater decline in PP and ultimately widening the LL - PP spread [3]. Supply Side - According to the latest industry commissioning data, the total planned commissioning capacity of the PP09 contract is up to 3.7 million tons, with nearly 2.2 million tons in June. In contrast, LL has only 1.4 million tons of planned commissioning capacity for the whole year, and only 200,000 tons in June [12]. - Comparing the commissioning mismatch in the first half of 2023 (from May to July 2023, PP planned to commission 2.3 million tons and LL 0 tons, and the LL - PP09 contract rose from 245 yuan/ton to 800 yuan/ton), the commissioning mismatch in June this year is very similar. It is expected that the expectation of the widening LL - PP spread will start to be traded at the end of May and the beginning of June, and from July to September, the commissioning and the seasonal peak season will magnify the LL - PP spread to a high point [12]. PP Export End - In 2024, the PP export volume doubled year - on - year, with the monthly average export volume nearly doubling to 180,000 tons/month. However, this year, affected by the "tariff sanctions" policy in the US, the PP export volume has declined year - on - year, and the marginal bullish factor has failed, which supports going long on the widening LL - PP spread [14].

首席点评： 宏观利好，内需接力 中美达成重要共识。中美经贸高层会谈 5月10日至11日在瑞士日内瓦举行。中美经贸中方牵头人、国务 院副总理当地时间11日晚在出席中方代表团举行的新闻发布会时表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈坦诚、深 入、具有建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。国际方面：俄乌传出谈判迹象，特朗普表示今日 与双方领导展开沟通。巴以冲突仍在持续，暂无停火意向。印巴冲突导致克什米尔地区战火不断，核威 胁升级，大国博弈加剧。特朗普继续批评鲍威尔降息节奏太迟，但短期来看美联储尚未释放降息讯号。 在宏观面向好的预期下，商品将持续迎接不断的扰动冲击。坚定看好需求韧性下，各品种回到基本面轨 道，等待明确新的方向。 重点品种： 航运、原油、聚烯烃 集运欧线： 上周五 EC回调，08合约在传统旺季预期下回调相对有限。盘后公布的SCFI欧线为1154美 元/TEU，环比小幅下降7美元/TEU，基本对应于05.19-05.25期间的欧线订舱价，反映5月下旬运价的多 数沿用。在经过前期宏观情绪缓和及美线抢运潮带来的欧线旺季预期升温后，短期市场有所降温，逐渐 回归理性，预计将回归欧线本身的基本面及估值表现。以目前6月初大柜报价 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Options Strategy Morning Report [1] - Report Date: May 16, 2025 - Research Analysts: Lu Pinxian, Huang Kehan Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The energy and chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies mainly involve constructing option portfolios with a focus on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview of Underlying Futures - Various energy and chemical option underlying futures contracts are presented, including details such as the latest price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2507) is 462, with a decrease of 10 and a decline rate of 2.14% [3]. 2. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil is 1.22, and the open interest PCR is 0.77 [4]. 3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of option underlyings are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 560, and the support level is 400 [5]. 4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of options is presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 31.63%, and the weighted implied volatility is 34.36% [6]. 5. Strategy and Recommendations for Different Option Varieties Energy - Related Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamental situation involves OPEC + increasing supply and the US maintaining production cuts. The market shows a pattern of short - term recovery followed by a decline. Implied volatility is at a relatively high level, and the open interest PCR indicates the release of short - selling power. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **LPG**: The fundamental situation is that the cost of imported gas from the Middle East supports domestic prices. The market is in a weak, bearish state. Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. Alcohol - Related Options - **Methanol**: The fundamental situation is that port and enterprise inventories have increased, and downstream demand has weakened. The market shows a recent upward trend. Implied volatility is declining and fluctuating around the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates support. Strategies include constructing a bullish call spread for direction, a bullish call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The fundamental situation is that port inventories are expected to decrease. The market shows a short - term bullish trend. Implied volatility is at a relatively high level, and the open interest PCR indicates a strong, oscillating market. Strategies include constructing a bullish call spread for direction, a short - volatility strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. Polyolefin - Related Options - **Polypropylene**: The fundamental situation is that the inventories of production enterprises and traders have increased. The market shows a recent upward trend. Implied volatility fluctuates above the historical average, and the open interest PCR is above 1. Strategies include constructing a bullish call spread for direction, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. Rubber - Related Options - **Rubber**: The fundamental situation is that the import volume has increased, and the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has decreased. The market shows a short - term bullish trend. Implied volatility fluctuates around the average, and the open interest PCR is below 0.6. Strategies include constructing a bullish call spread for direction, a bullish call + put option combination for volatility [11]. Polyester - Related Options - **PTA**: The fundamental situation is that polyester load has increased, and PTA inventory is decreasing. The market shows a bullish trend. Implied volatility is at a relatively high level, and the open interest PCR indicates a strengthening market. Strategies include constructing a bullish call spread for direction, and a bullish call + put option combination for volatility [12]. Other Options - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamental situation is that factory inventories and the start - up rate have changed. The market is in a weak, oscillating state. Implied volatility is decreasing and below the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include constructing a bearish wide - straddle option combination for volatility, and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The fundamental situation is that domestic production has decreased. The market shows a recent bearish trend. Implied volatility is rising but below the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak, oscillating market. Strategies include constructing a bearish call spread for direction, a neutral call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Urea**: The fundamental situation is that production capacity utilization has rebounded, and inventories have changed. The market shows a recent bullish trend. Implied volatility has decreased and is below the average, and the open interest PCR indicates strong bullish power. Strategies include constructing a bullish call spread for direction, a bullish call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14].