化工板块一季报总结及 5 月投资策略 20250505 摘要 • 振华股份一季度归母净利润同比增长 37%，预计二季度业绩将大幅增长， 主要受益于金属铬需求旺盛及价格上涨，产能扩张后年化利润或达 15-16 亿元。建议关注其独立逻辑带来的高弹性。 • 制冷剂行业近期市场表现超预期，龙头企业如巨化、三美等净利润大幅增 长，毛利率显著提升。制冷剂被定义为刚需产品，龙头企业掌握定价权， 且需求稳定，未来仍有巨大潜力。 • 农化板块整体表现强劲，受益于成本端支撑和出口需求带动，相关企业业 绩同比增长。建议关注出口政策对磷铵的影响，以及扬农化工等龙头企业 通过提升开工负荷实现业绩增长。 • 涤纶长丝行业一季度业绩良好，但面临油价下跌和关税政策不确定性带来 的压力。随着原油价格触底及关税政策缓和，市场弹性可能增加，建议关 注油价走势。 • 大炼化板块公司如荣盛、恒力一季度利润环比改善明显，受益于原油裂解 价差回升。低原油价格对下游需求有正反馈，有助于降低成本，提高利润。 关注恒力和荣盛在炼化一体化领域的表现。 Q&A 如何评价 2025 年化工板块的整体表现及其未来趋势？ 2025 年化工板块整体处于筑底阶段，受宏观经济 ...

公司制冷剂产品均价持续增长，24FY&1Q25 业绩同比大幅增长。国家对第二、三代氟制冷剂均实行生 产配额管理，行业的供需格局、竞争格局优化，公司制冷剂产品均价持续增长，盈利能力大幅提升。据 公司公告，24FY 公司氟制冷剂平均售价和外销量分别为2.61 万元/吨和12.54 万吨，同比分别为+ 28.17%和+1.7%。1Q25 公司制冷剂平均售价和外销量分别为3.74 万元/吨和2.71 万吨，同比分别为+57% 和-16.1%。 制冷剂景气向上趋势不改，2025 年价格延续增长趋势。配额制背景下，制冷剂供给受限，行业生态、 竞争秩序得到明显改善。同时，国家"家电以旧换新"政策驱动国内需求增长、全球南方国家城镇化和消 费升级步伐加快驱动国际市场需求持续增长，制冷剂供需状况持续改善，景气向上趋势不改，2025 年 制冷剂延续涨价趋势。据百川盈孚数据，截至2025 年4 月28 日，公司主营制冷剂产品 R22/R32/R125/R134a 国内市场均价较2025 年1 月2日分别提升9.1%/12.8%/7.1%/10.6%至 3.60/4.85/4.50/4.70 万元/吨，价差较2025 年1 月2 日分 ...

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3288 | -0.2 | -1.8 | -0.09 | | | | | 8 | | | 深证综指 | 1898 | -0.9 | -6.3 | -0.68 | | 风格指数 | 昨日表现 | 1 个月表现 | 6 个月表 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （％） | （％） | 现（％） | | 大盘指数 | -0.06 | -3.09 | -3.93 | | 中盘指数 | -0.6 | -6.26 | -8.52 | | 小盘指数 | -0.85 | -6.2 | -2.74 | | 行业涨幅 | 昨日涨 | 1 个月涨 | 6 个月涨 | | 普钢Ⅱ | 1.64 | -3.29 | 2.87 | | 游戏Ⅱ | 1.3 | -4.5 | 2.38 | | 城商行Ⅱ | 1.24 | 3.41 | 10.11 | | 白色家电 | 1.07 | -3.32 | -4.88 | | 农商 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - **Company**: 巨化股份 (Juhua Co., Ltd.) - **Industry**: Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Industry Key Points and Arguments Market Demand and Performance - The number of visitors at the 2025 Refrigeration Exhibition has increased, indicating strong domestic and foreign demand, which is expected to drive company performance growth this year [2][4] - The Chinese air conditioning industry benefits from domestic economic recovery, global warming, and the Belt and Road Initiative, with significant export potential, especially in markets with low air conditioning penetration like India [2][7] Product Development and Opportunities - The fourth-generation refrigerants are maturing, with new projects in Gansu signaling a large release of domestic capacity that meets environmental standards and market demand, presenting growth opportunities for related companies [2][10] - The exit of 3M from the fluorinated materials market creates opportunities for the fluorinated refrigerant market, with Juhua establishing a joint venture for commercial promotion and focusing on semiconductor fluids and high-end fluorinated oils [2][28] Regulatory Environment - The national quota management mechanism requires a 10% reduction in application volume by 2029, necessitating strict control of production quotas while considering domestic and international market demands and environmental requirements [2][15] Market Trends and Insights - Genuine market research should focus on current market demands and trends, such as transparent initial installation market data, increasing production volumes, and the impact of weather on consumer markets, which may indicate strong annual performance for companies like Juhua [2][16] - The air conditioning industry faces challenges from a declining real estate market but also has significant export potential due to the Belt and Road Initiative and increasing demand from global warming [2][8] Future Projections - The industry is expected to see a significant increase in fourth-generation refrigerant production capacity, with a projected capacity of 35,000 tons by 2029 [2][11] - Companies must consider long-term planning and adapt to technological changes while maintaining current operations and focusing on innovation and patent development to secure competitive advantages [2][20] Price Dynamics - The price fluctuations in the refrigerant market are primarily influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with significant price increases expected in 2025 due to high demand and supply shortages [2][21][22] Strategic Planning - Juhua has a clear strategic plan for R&D and innovation, focusing on fluorinated materials and new refrigerants, while also addressing potential patent restrictions and ensuring a competitive edge through technological advancements [2][29][30] Industry Competitiveness - The Chinese chemical industry has made significant progress from a "copying" model to one of independent innovation, with the potential to surpass international leaders in certain areas through technology introduction and self-research [2][31] Economic Outlook - The overall economic environment in 2025 is expected to be stable, with positive export conditions and a focus on safety and industry realities, supporting future growth [2][32]

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Industry - The tariff environment has limited short-term disruptions to the pharmaceutical industry, with a focus on the global competitiveness of domestic innovative drugs [2][17][19] - Domestic innovative drug companies have captured significant market shares, such as BTK inhibitors holding 75% and PD-1/PD-L1 monoclonal antibodies over 70% in the domestic market [2][17] - Several Chinese innovative drugs are entering a harvest phase, with Zebutine expected to achieve sales of $2.6 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 105% [2][17] - A recommended list of leading biotech and pharmaceutical companies includes BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and Hengrui Medicine among others [2][17] Group 2: Chemical Industry - Juhua Co., Ltd. - Juhua Co., Ltd. is expected to see significant growth in Q1 2025, with projected net profit ranging from 760 to 840 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 145% to 171% [5][6][36] - The company benefits from a strong position in the refrigerant market, with a production quota of 34% for third-generation refrigerants [6][36] - The refrigerant segment has shown a substantial increase in both volume and price, with revenues reaching 2.618 billion yuan, up 64.63% year-on-year [6][36] Group 3: Aluminum Industry - China Aluminum Corporation - China Aluminum Corporation is projected to achieve a net profit of 3.4 to 3.6 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 53% to 63% [8][10] - The company is enhancing its resource strategy and has a significant aluminum ore reserve of approximately 2.7 billion tons [8][10] - Expansion projects are underway, with a new 500,000-ton electrolytic aluminum capacity expected to come online in December 2024 [10]