证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 电商"投流税"重锤落地，海南将于年底全岛封关运作 [Table_Title2] 海外周报 [Table_Summary] 核心结论: ► 史上最严税规来袭，电商"投流税"重锤落地。 一场针对电商税务漏洞的监管风暴正在席卷全国，从佛山 1.23 亿销售零申报被查，到青岛即墨区商户 5679 万收入仅 申报 32 万被定性偷税，税务稽查的利剑已精准刺向电商经营 的核心地带。 近期，国家市场监管总局与税务总局连续出台多项重磅政 策，标志着电商行业迎来最强监管时代。其中，《〈中华人 民共和国广告法〉适用问题执法指南（一）》的发布，将企 业投流费用明确定性为广告费和业务宣传费，彻底改变了电 商营销成本的税务处理规则。 根据规定，自 2025 年 10 月 1 日起，企业发生的投流费用税 前扣除额度不得超过年度营业收入的 15%，超出的部分将按 规定计征企业所得税。这意味着，那些依赖巨额流量投入驱 动的电商商业模式将面临前所未有的税务成本重构。 与此同时，《互联网平台企业涉税信息报送规定》的全面实 施，要求 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current controversy surrounding Shi Yongxin, the abbot of Shaolin Temple, has led to severe allegations of misconduct, including criminal activities and moral violations, resulting in his戒牒 being revoked by the Chinese Buddhist Association [1][2]. Group 1: Allegations and Investigations - Shi Yongxin is under investigation for serious allegations including embezzlement of project funds and maintaining improper relationships with multiple women, which has led to a joint investigation by various departments [1][6]. - The accusations against Shi Yongxin closely mirror those from a 2015 report, indicating a pattern of alleged misconduct [2]. Group 2: Historical Context of Crises - Shi Yongxin has faced multiple crises during his tenure, with the most notable being the 2009 controversy regarding the potential commercialization and listing of Shaolin Temple, which he vehemently opposed [3][5]. - His first major crisis involved being expelled from the temple early in his career, a significant punishment within the monastic community [5]. Group 3: Commercialization of Buddhism - Shi Yongxin is recognized as a pioneer in the commercialization and globalization of Buddhism, having established the first Buddhist company in China and expanded Shaolin's brand internationally [7][9]. - Under his leadership, Shaolin Temple has seen significant financial success, with annual visitor numbers reaching approximately 4 million and ticket revenues exceeding 300 million yuan [9]. - Shi Yongxin's business ventures include a wide range of industries, from cultural dissemination to real estate, creating a complex commercial empire that raises questions about the intersection of faith and commerce [10].

Group 1 - The successful application for World Heritage status of Beijing's central axis has significantly enhanced its international communication function, attracting global tourists and promoting cultural exchange [1] - The central axis, spanning 7.8 kilometers, has seen a notable increase in visitor numbers, with Zhongshan Park receiving over 3.18 million visitors since the heritage status was granted, including 417,600 during holidays [1] - The area around the central axis has developed a diversified tourism industry, with various cultural tourism projects launched, including themed exploration routes that feature local cuisine, accommodations, and cultural creations [1] Group 2 - The Beijing Chaoyang Food Sightseeing Bus, a collaboration between Beichen Group and Chaoyang Cultural Tourism Group, has launched a dedicated route covering the northern section of the central axis, offering a unique dining and sightseeing experience [2] - The bus route spans 12 kilometers and includes major landmarks such as the Bird's Nest and the Drum Tower, with a travel time of approximately 2 hours [2] - Over 90% of inbound tourists to Beijing choose to visit attractions along the central axis, highlighting its significance as a must-see destination for international visitors [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the advancement rate of consecutive limit-up stocks is only 22.22%, with a notable performance from a specific stock, Upway New Materials, which has increased over 9 times in 14 trading days [1] - A total of 55 stocks hit the limit-up today, with 5 consecutive limit-up stocks, including 2 stocks with three or more consecutive limit-ups [1] - The market saw over 2,700 stocks rising, indicating a general upward trend despite the limited advancement rate of consecutive limit-up stocks [1] Group 2 - Upway New Materials achieved 11 consecutive limit-ups in 14 trading days, resulting in a cumulative increase of over 9 times [1] - The Super Hydropower concept showed slight recovery, with Tibet Tourism advancing to 6 consecutive limit-ups [1] - The domestic commodity futures market experienced significant adjustments, with major contracts like coking coal, glass, and lithium carbonate hitting the limit-down [1] Group 3 - PCB concept stocks received a capital inflow, with Shenghong Technology rising over 17%, reaching a market capitalization of over 150 billion, a new historical high [1] - Other notable stocks include Tongguan Copper Foil with 2 limit-ups in 3 days, and several stocks in the engineering machinery and water conservancy sectors also showing strong performance [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the social services sector [3][5][37]. Core Viewpoints - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start operations on December 18, 2025, with a significant increase in the number of zero-tariff goods from 1,900 items (21%) to 6,600 items (74%), which is expected to enhance the attractiveness of Hainan for businesses and tourists [14][15]. - The investment in the Yajiang Hydropower project, totaling 1.2 trillion CNY, is anticipated to stimulate regional economic activity and support various industries such as education, tourism, and logistics [16][17]. - The report suggests that the social services sector will benefit from favorable national policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, leading to a potential recovery in valuations [3][37]. Summary by Sections Industry Insights - The consumer services sector outperformed the market with a 4.41% increase, surpassing the benchmark by 1.61 percentage points during the reporting period [23][26]. - Key stocks in the consumer services sector included Tibet Tourism, Lansheng Co., and Oriental Selection, which saw significant gains [26][27]. Company Dynamics - Dou Shen Education launched an AI-based writing and reading system, while JD.com introduced a "Dish Partner" program to innovate traditional restaurant franchising [29][30]. - Sally's net profit reached a record high for the quarter, driven by a low-price strategy that increased customer traffic [31]. - The official direct sales platform for civil aviation was launched by Hanglv Zongheng, integrating resources from 37 airlines [31]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Atour, China Oriental Education, and Meituan, among others, for potential investment opportunities [3][37]. - Mid-term selections include China Duty Free Group, Meituan, and Huazhu Group, indicating a diverse range of investment options across the sector [3][37]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates for several companies, with a focus on maintaining an "Outperform the Market" rating for firms like Mixue Group and Atour [4][37].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strategic allocation of ETFs in various sectors, recommending a focus on liquor, real estate, and white goods for the upcoming week [2] - The model portfolio for the week of July 28, 2025, includes continued holdings in real estate ETFs and the addition of oil and gas ETFs, indicating a shift in market focus [2][5] - The report highlights a cumulative return of approximately 1.40% for the strategy from July 21 to July 25, 2025, with an excess return of -0.32% compared to the CSI 300 ETF [2][5] ETF Strategy Summary - The report outlines specific ETFs and their respective values, with the liquor ETF valued at 32.58 billion, real estate ETF at 6.83 billion, and tourism ETF at 30.84 billion, among others [2] - The report provides a detailed performance tracking of various ETFs, indicating that the average return for the ETFs was 1.40% during the specified period [5] - The report includes a table of ETFs with their current holdings and performance metrics, showing that the real estate ETF has a holding signal of 100% and the liquor ETF has a holding signal of 55.71% [2][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the social services sector [3][5][36]. Core Viewpoints - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start operations on December 18, 2025, with a significant increase in the number of zero-tariff goods from 1,900 items (21%) to 6,600 items (74%), which is expected to enhance the attractiveness of Hainan for businesses and tourists [1][14]. - The investment of 1.2 trillion CNY in the Yajiang hydropower project is anticipated to stimulate regional economic cycles and boost related industries such as education, business travel, catering, and tourism [1][16][17]. - The report suggests that the social services sector is likely to benefit from favorable national policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, leading to a potential valuation recovery [3][36]. Summary by Sections Industry Insights - The consumer services sector outperformed the market, rising by 4.41% during the reporting period, exceeding the market benchmark by 1.61 percentage points [22][25]. - The report highlights various industry dynamics, including the launch of AI educational products by Dou Shen Education and JD's new "Dish Partner" initiative, which aims to disrupt traditional restaurant franchising [28][29]. Company Performance Predictions - Key companies such as Mijia Group, Atour, and Ctrip are rated as "Outperform the Market," with projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E and 2026E showing positive growth [4][36]. - The report includes a detailed table of investment ratings and financial metrics for various companies in the sector, indicating strong growth potential [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Atour, China Oriental Education, and Meituan, among others, as they are expected to perform well in the current economic environment [3][36]. - Mid-term selections include China Duty Free Group, Meituan, and Huazhu Group, reflecting a diversified investment strategy across the social services sector [3][36].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.17% today, with a trading volume of 841.35 million shares and a transaction value of 1,138.73 billion yuan, an increase of 1.39% compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included Non-Bank Financials (up 1.11%), Defense and Military (up 1.04%), and Pharmaceutical and Biological (up 0.88%) [1]. - The sectors with the largest declines were Coal (down 2.46%), Steel (down 1.84%), and Beauty and Personal Care (down 1.59%) [2]. Detailed Industry Data - Non-Bank Financials: - Change: +1.11% - Transaction Value: 647.20 billion yuan (up 11.70%) - Leading Stock: Zhongyin Securities (up 6.61%) [1] - Defense and Military: - Change: +1.04% - Transaction Value: 496.34 billion yuan (up 57.68%) - Leading Stock: Xinguang Optoelectronics (up 13.27%) [1] - Pharmaceutical and Biological: - Change: +0.88% - Transaction Value: 986.89 billion yuan (down 13.87%) - Leading Stock: Erkang Pharmaceutical (up 14.89%) [1] - Coal: - Change: -2.46% - Transaction Value: 95.76 billion yuan (down 14.49%) - Leading Stock: Shanxi Coking Coal (down 6.18%) [2] - Steel: - Change: -1.84% - Transaction Value: 129.93 billion yuan (down 18.37%) - Leading Stock: Liugang Co. (down 8.58%) [2] - Beauty and Personal Care: - Change: -1.59% - Transaction Value: 52.80 billion yuan (down 7.19%) - Leading Stock: Baiya Co. (down 7.94%) [2]

Group 1: Summer Economic Trends - The end of the college entrance examination marks the beginning of a diverse and expansive summer consumption market, driven by students and their families [1] - The summer economy is characterized by various consumption patterns, including self-improvement, beauty investments, and skill acquisition [1] Group 2: Graduation Celebrations - The tradition of graduation banquets has evolved into a significant consumption phenomenon, supported by a growing number of high school graduates [2][4] - The banquet market shows a clear segmentation, with high-end customized options in first-tier cities and more affordable traditional options in lower-tier cities [2][4] - The rise of graduation banquets reflects the societal recognition of educational success and the desire for social status among families [2][5] Group 3: Travel Trends - The graduation travel market has seen a surge, with related searches increasing threefold and bookings up 137% year-on-year [6] - Young travelers are favoring longer and themed trips, with a preference for cultural cities and group travel [6][8] - The introduction of visa-free policies has further stimulated outbound travel, with a significant increase in hotel bookings for popular destinations [8] Group 4: Indoor Skiing - The popularity of indoor skiing has risen, particularly in southern regions, as it offers a unique experience regardless of the season [9][11] - Businesses are responding with tailored packages for students, creating a comprehensive service chain that enhances family participation [11] Group 5: Arts Education - The summer period has become a peak time for arts training, driven by a growing emphasis on quality education [12][15] - Families are increasingly viewing arts education as a necessary investment, leading to a diverse range of offerings in the market [12][15] Group 6: Medical Aesthetics - The medical aesthetics market is projected to grow significantly, with a notable increase in student consumers during the summer months [16][18] - Parental support plays a crucial role in driving this consumption trend, reflecting a shift in attitudes towards cosmetic procedures [18] Group 7: Driving Licenses - The demand for driving licenses peaks during the summer, with a significant portion of annual registrations occurring in July and August [19][21] - Driving schools are adapting by offering discounts and flexible training options to attract students [21] Group 8: Vision Correction Surgery - The summer is a popular time for vision correction surgeries, driven by the need for clear vision for certain academic programs [22][24] - The market is characterized by a strong demand for quality procedures, with various options available at different price points [24] Group 9: Live Events - The summer concert and festival market is experiencing substantial growth, with ticket sales and related consumption on the rise [25][30] - The events not only drive direct ticket sales but also boost local economies through increased travel and hospitality spending [27][30] Group 10: Overall Economic Impact - The rise of the summer economy is attributed to fixed holiday periods and the increasing influence of younger consumers [31] - As Generation Z becomes the main consumer force, the summer economy is expected to evolve towards more personalized and quality-driven experiences [31]

Core Insights - The global tourism industry is severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, with a projected decline in tourist numbers by 20%-30% in 2020 compared to 2019, and international tourism revenue expected to decrease by $300 billion to $450 billion [2][3] - The World Tourism Organization reports that the tourism sector is one of the hardest-hit industries, with an estimated loss of 75 million jobs globally and a projected loss of $2.1 trillion in tourism value for 2020 [3][4] Impact on Specific Regions - In Thailand, the capital Bangkok has closed all large malls and entertainment facilities, with an expected loss of 5 million foreign tourists this year [3][6] - Southeast Asia is facing significant declines, with Cambodia seeing a 60% drop in foreign visitors in February, and Bali's hotel occupancy rate falling below 5% [3][4] - European countries are also experiencing severe losses, with Italy predicting a reduction of 32 million tourists and a loss exceeding €7 billion from March to May [4][7] Government Response and Support Measures - Various governments are implementing relief measures, such as Thailand's three economic stimulus packages aimed at supporting tourism-related businesses [6][7] - Indonesia has introduced financial aid for local airlines and travel agencies, while Cambodia is providing tax incentives for hotels [6][7] - In Europe, Italy has allocated €3.6 billion for tourism support, and Spain has approved €400 million in loan guarantees for affected businesses [7][8] Future Trends and Strategies - The establishment of a global tourism crisis management committee aims to assess the situation and propose recovery measures [8][9] - Experts suggest that the pandemic may lead to a shift towards short-distance travel and domestic tourism, as consumers may be hesitant about long-haul trips [8][9] - There is a call for the tourism industry to innovate and modernize its business models, with a focus on employee training and skill enhancement for long-term development [8][9]