有色商品日报 隔夜 LME 镍涨 2.93%报 18065 美元/吨，沪镍涨 2.3%报 140310 元/吨。库存方面，LME 库存维持至 285750 吨，SHFE 仓单减少 12 吨至 52027 吨。升贴水来看，LME0-3 月升 贴水维持负数；进口镍升贴水维持贴 50 元/吨。消息面，ESDM 部矿产和煤炭总干事 Tri Winarno 透露，批准的镍矿生产配额在 2.6 亿吨到 2.7 亿吨之间，与上年 RKAB 的生产 目标——3.79 亿吨——相比，这一配额大幅缩水。基本面来看镍矿升水走强，镍铁价格 高位震荡，根据 SMM 数据显示印尼火法、湿法镍矿库存指数下降，分别主要受到监控 系统延迟和新项目投产所致，叠加印尼配额收紧的预期，后续或仍存在资源供给偏紧的 担忧，推动边界成本支撑继续抬升。不锈钢来看，二月春节因素影响，不锈钢周度库存 累库，但供给端多有检修；新能源方面，节日因素印象，硫酸镍现货采销相对冷清，三 元材料产量也同样预计环比走弱。阶段性需求环比转弱，但成本支撑依旧坚实，对价格 来说预计仍有较强支撑，叠加印尼消息面多有扰动，关注成本线附近轻仓试多机会，后 续显性库存如能明显去化，可能会 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美国非农数据超预期，市场无视，另外美联储官员强调联储独立性，盘面继续调整。 | | 黄金 | 企稳多配 | 中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金（中国央行连续 15 个月 | | ★ | | 购金），长期战略配置价值不变。关注调整幅度。 | | | | 白银多空拥挤交易博弈或没有结束。尽管长期理由仍然存在供需缺口连续 5 年，全 | | 白银 | 等待降波 | 球大财政均对白银长期有利，但是短期市场会继续调整，保持关注，短期参与难度 | | ★ | | 大，风险报酬比不合适。 | | | | 非农表强里弱，短期市场降息预期降温，美元走强，关注后续美国 CPI 和沃什讲话。 | | 铜 | | 隔夜铜冲高回落，建议多单止盈落袋，持币空仓过节。中长期，铜作为中美博弈的 | | ★ | 长线持有 | 重要战略资源和贵金属平替资产配置，对铜依旧看好。 | | 锌 | | 锌外强内弱，随着春节长假临近，需求疲软，锌锭库存累库，建议准备持币空仓过 | | ★ | 承压 | 节，规避风险。 | | 铅 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The US plans to promote the commercial reserve of critical mineral resources, and China is expected to strengthen copper reserves. The US economic data is relatively volatile, with strong manufacturing sentiment providing support. The copper price is expected to fluctuate, with the Shanghai copper main contract reference range of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton and the LME copper 3M reference range of 13,000 - 13,300 US dollars/ton [5]. - Aluminum: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, with weak demand in the off - season; LME aluminum inventories remain relatively low, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing strong support for the aluminum price. Before the holiday, the aluminum price is expected to be range - bound, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract reference range of 23,300 - 23,800 yuan/ton and the LME aluminum 3M reference range of 3,080 - 3,130 US dollars/ton [8]. - Lead: The visible lead ore inventory has declined slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains low. The scrap battery inventory continues to rise. Near the Spring Festival, the smelter's operating rate declines seasonally. Whether the lead price can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [10]. - Zinc: The visible zinc ore inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories have started to accumulate, and the downstream industry is performing weakly. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - sentiment. Strong US PMI may drive the zinc price to rise [12]. - Tin: Short - term precious metal prices show signs of stabilizing after a second decline, and tin prices may rebound. In the short term, due to the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventories, there is pressure on a significant increase. The tin price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - Nickel: Precious metal and risk asset prices have stabilized after a second decline, with a short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and the short - term nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations and is expected to have limited impact on the nickel price [16]. - Lithium Carbonate: Before the holiday, funds are in a wait - and - see mood. The future lithium demand is expected to be strong. If the resumption of production of large mines in Jiangxi fails, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate after the Spring Festival will still be tight. Currently, there is a lack of new drivers, and the lithium price is likely to fluctuate within a range [19]. - Alumina: There is a strike in the bauxite mine in Guinea, and the subsequent impact needs to be observed. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [22]. - Stainless Steel: From the supply side, the raw material supply has recovered, but the agents' shipment rhythm has slowed down under the steel mill's price - limit policy. From the demand side, affected by the pre - Spring Festival off - season, the market's purchasing willingness is not strong. The market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and it is recommended to maintain the strategy of buying low, with the main contract reference range of 13,500 - 13,900 yuan/ton [24]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has risen. Despite general demand, the short - term price is still supported under the background of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The US retail sales data was weaker than expected. Overnight, the US stock market rose and then fell, and the copper price fluctuated and adjusted. The LME copper 3M closed down 0.64% to 13,100 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101,730 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories increased by 4,800 tons to 189,100 tons. Domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.9 to 166,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a premium of 5 yuan/ton to the futures, and the spot in Guangdong was at a discount of 105 yuan/ton to the futures. The spot import of Shanghai copper had a loss of about 700 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US plans to promote the commercial reserve of critical mineral resources, and China is expected to strengthen copper reserves. The US economic data is relatively volatile, with strong manufacturing sentiment providing support. The copper price is expected to fluctuate, with the Shanghai copper main contract reference range of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton and the LME copper 3M reference range of 13,000 - 13,300 US dollars/ton [5]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: As the long holiday approaches, market volatility has decreased. The increasing uncertainty of the Mozambique aluminum plant's production cut has led to an adjustment in the aluminum price. The LME aluminum closed down 0.8% to 3,105 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,545 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 0.4 to 663,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 167,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories in three regions increased, and aluminum rod inventories rose. The LME aluminum ingot inventories decreased by 0.2 to 487,000 tons [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, with weak demand in the off - season; LME aluminum inventories remain relatively low, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing strong support for the aluminum price. Before the holiday, the aluminum price is expected to be range - bound, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract reference range of 23,300 - 23,800 yuan/ton and the LME aluminum 3M reference range of 3,080 - 3,130 US dollars/ton [8]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.52% to 16,688 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 126,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME lead 3S rose 11.5 to 1,970 US dollars/ton, with a total position of 176,300 lots. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,525 yuan/ton, and the recycled refined lead average price was 16,500 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 45,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 232,800 tons [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible lead ore inventory has declined slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains low. The scrap battery inventory continues to rise. Near the Spring Festival, the smelter's operating rate declines seasonally. Whether the lead price can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [10]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.30% to 24,494 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 193,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME zinc 3S rose 5 to 3,366.5 US dollars/ton, with a total position of 229,400 lots. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,460 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 34,200 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,900 tons [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible zinc ore inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories have started to accumulate, and the downstream industry is performing weakly. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - sentiment. Strong US PMI may drive the zinc price to rise [12]. Tin - **Market Information**: On February 10, the tin price fluctuated narrowly. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 382,000 yuan/ton, down 0.57% from the previous day. On the supply side, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained high and stable last week, while the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. On the demand side, although the price decline has released some rigid procurement demand and spot transactions have slightly improved, the overall price is still at a high level, and the downstream's pre - holiday restocking willingness is not obvious [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term precious metal prices show signs of stabilizing after a second decline, and tin prices may rebound. In the short term, due to the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventories, there is pressure on a significant increase. The tin price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract reference range is 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin reference range is 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 10, the nickel price fell slightly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 133,350 yuan/ton, down 0.87% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price fluctuated upward [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Precious metal and risk asset prices have stabilized after a second decline, with a short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and the short - term nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations and is expected to have limited impact on the nickel price. The Shanghai nickel price reference range is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract reference range is 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 136,408 yuan in the evening session, up 0.06% from the previous trading day. The LC2605 contract closed at 137,340 yuan, up 0.25% from the previous closing price [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Before the holiday, funds are in a wait - and - see mood. The future lithium demand is expected to be strong. If the resumption of production of large mines in Jiangxi fails, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate after the Spring Festival will still be tight. Currently, there is a lack of new drivers, and the lithium price is likely to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 129,000 - 147,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On February 10, 2026, as of 15:00, the alumina index fell 1.11% to 2,837 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 468,200 lots, a decrease of 14,600 lots from the previous trading day. The Shandong spot price remained at 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 280 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained at 304 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was reported at - 69 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts on Tuesday were reported at 251,000 tons, an increase of 84,000 tons from the previous trading day [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a strike in the bauxite mine in Guinea, and the subsequent impact needs to be observed. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The future price trend depends on whether the Guinea mine disturbance can be materialized and whether the high domestic supply pressure can be effectively alleviated. The domestic main contract AO2605 reference range is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,740 yuan/ton, up 0.04% (+5) on the day, with a unilateral position of 211,200 lots, a decrease of 6,582 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the prices of cold - rolled coils in Foshan and Wuxi remained unchanged. The raw material prices also remained stable. The futures inventory was 47,800 tons, an increase of 4,221 from the previous day. As of February 6, social inventories increased to 914,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07%, and the 300 - series inventory was 632,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.49% [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: From the supply side, the raw material supply has recovered, but the agents' shipment rhythm has slowed down under the steel mill's price - limit policy. From the demand side, affected by the pre - Spring Festival off - season, the market's purchasing willingness is not strong. The market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and it is recommended to maintain the strategy of buying low, with the main contract reference range of 13,500 - 13,900 yuan/ton [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the cast aluminum alloy price fluctuated. The main AD2604 contract closed down 0.2% to 22,120 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position increased to 25,000 lots, and the trading volume was 8,700 lots. The warehouse receipts decreased by 0.12 to 67,300 tons. The domestic three - region aluminum alloy inventory decreased by 0.01 to 40,900 tons [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has risen. Despite general demand, the short - term price is still supported under the background of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [27].

数据显示，东方基金旗下1只基金重仓株冶集团。东方兴瑞趋势领航混合A（015381）四季度减持23.07 万股，持有股数43.23万股，占基金净值比例为6.96%，位居第四大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约 43.66万元。 2月11日，株冶集团涨5.06%，截至发稿，报20.96元/股，成交1.72亿元，换手率1.12%，总市值224.87亿 元。 资料显示，株洲冶炼集团股份有限公司位于湖南省株洲市天元区衡山东路12号，成立日期1993年12月20 日，上市日期2004年8月30日，公司主营业务涉及锌及锌合金、工业硫酸的生产和销售。主营业务收入 构成为：锌及锌合金38.48%，其他28.17%，金锭13.94%，银锭10.71%，铅及铅合金7.85%，铟锭 0.51%，硫酸0.20%，有色金属贸易0.14%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 东方兴瑞趋势领航混合A（015381）成立日期2022年8月16日，最新规模3483.45万。今年以来收益 15.02%，同类排名462/8884；近一年收益90.67%，同类排名184/8127；成立以来收益68.52%。 东方兴瑞趋势领航混合A（015381）基金经理为许文波、 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/02/11 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2026/02/04 -275 7997 233004 159772 -1050.86 216.31 36.0 43.0 -81.84 178650 22925 2026/02/05 -225 5843 233004 160679 93.86 158.80 37.0 44.0 -77.58 180575 19950 2026/02/06 -135 5358 248911 160172 -1123.62 412.12 37.0 44.0 -70.95 183275 19300 2026/02/09 -120 5852 248911 157128 -606.22 131.50 38.0 44.0 -77.37 184300 19475 2026/02/10 -125 5778 248911 165939 -1117.87 -150.93 38.0 44.0 -76.10 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Shunbo Aluminum Alloy Co., Ltd. received a corrective measure order from the Chongqing Securities Regulatory Bureau, requiring the company to submit a written rectification report within 30 days due to issues related to financial reporting accuracy [1][2]. Group 1: Issues Identified - In 2024, the company recognized some revenue inappropriately across periods, leading to inaccurate financial reporting [2]. - The assessment of the net realizable value for inventory was unreasonable, resulting in insufficient provision for inventory impairment [2]. - The company did not adequately consider the credit risk of certain receivables, leading to insufficient provision for bad debts [2]. Group 2: Rectification Measures - The company has developed and improved financial accounting systems to enhance the quality of financial information, including guidelines for revenue recognition and inventory management [3]. - Training sessions have been organized for directors and senior management to improve compliance awareness and understanding of relevant accounting standards [5][6]. - The company plans to correct accounting errors related to the identified issues and will hold board meetings to address these corrections by April 2026 [7]. Group 3: Accountability and Summary - The chairman, president, and financial director are responsible for the rectification measures, and accountability procedures have been initiated for those responsible for the inaccuracies [8][9]. - The company views the issues raised in the corrective measure order as an opportunity to enhance its financial management and internal controls, aiming for improved transparency and governance [9].

Core Viewpoint - The increasing volatility of global commodity prices has led more companies to recognize the importance of price risk management, engaging in futures and derivatives trading to support high-quality development [1][5]. Group 1: Company Announcements - **Northern Copper Industry**: The company plans to engage in copper, gold, and silver futures contracts through the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with a margin investment not exceeding RMB 700 million. The hedging strategy aims to align with operational activities to mitigate price volatility risks [2][7]. - **Qingdao Senqilin Tire**: The company intends to utilize futures market hedging to control market risks associated with raw material price fluctuations, with a maximum margin and premium limit of RMB 200 million for 2026. The hedging activities will include natural rubber futures contracts traded in China and Singapore [3][8]. - **Minglida**: The company aims to stabilize production costs and enhance predictability of profitability by engaging in futures hedging for aluminum and copper. The maximum margin and premium limit for this activity is set at RMB 250 million, with a maximum contract value of RMB 2.5 billion on any trading day [4][9].

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to invest in a 110kV power transmission and transformation project to upgrade outdated electrical facilities at its Shifang non-ferrous metal subsidiary, addressing safety and efficiency issues while reducing electricity costs [1] Group 1: Project Details - The existing power supply facilities at the Shifang non-ferrous metal subsidiary have been in use for over 20 years and are experiencing technical obsolescence and aging issues [1] - The total investment for the new 110kV project is approximately 71.43 million yuan [1] - The project aims to ensure safe power supply for production, optimize energy structure, and provide reliable power support for future technological upgrades and capacity enhancements [1]

Group 1 - The core business and R&D focus of the company is currently on fields such as new energy vehicles, energy storage, and electronic circuits [1]

电解铝生产成本下降，企业利润扩大明显 2026年1月电解铝市价超预期上涨，触及历史新高，而氧化铝现货价格小幅下跌，处于偏低位水平，电 解铝厂生产成本较上月下降，而铝厂盈利空间扩大明显。 截至1月30日，我国电解铝企业算数平均生产成本15747.31元/吨附近，较上月降149.18元/吨，环比降幅 0.94%，同比降幅19.26%；行业平均盈利8295.19元/吨，较上月增加2266.98元/吨，环比增幅37.61%，同 比增幅1354.91%。加权平均生产成本14804.09元/吨，较上月减少177.55元/吨，降幅1.19%。本期电解铝 产能成本在16000元/吨以下的产能规模为3572.2万吨，占比81.21%；16000-17000元/吨产能规模为815.5 万吨，占比18.54%；17000-18000元/吨产能规模为11.2万吨，占比0.25%；暂无18000-19000元/吨产能规 模、产能成本大于19000元/吨产能规模。 智通财经APP获悉，环球富盛发布研报称，预测中国宏桥(01378)2025-2027年归母净利润分别为 186.75、252.99、271.76亿元。结合可比公司估值考虑到公 ...