（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，1月7日，早盘有色·镍概念震荡拉升，中伟股份涨超15%，格林美逼近涨停，伟明环保、 华友钴业、寒锐钴业、盛屯矿业冲高。 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/01/07 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/29 -435 6790 111703 65878 -1855.70 -146.77 53.0 52.0 31.35 154575 44075 2025/12/30 -380 6108 111703 71738 -1171.20 -225.51 51.0 49.0 39.87 149475 39175 2025/12/31 -335 5700 111703 81775 -1808.32 -74.26 51.0 49.0 30.39 147425 36825 2026/01/05 -115 7082 111703 90282 -1655.63 -138.56 43.0 46.0 41.98 142550 32650 2026/01/06 -200 7942 111703 93271 -1275.62 53.90 39.0 44.0 2.98 14607 ...

2026年01月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：避险情绪回升 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：新高待破 | 3 | | 铜：算力需求提振，价格强势 | 5 | | 锌：偏强运行 | 7 | | 铅：LME库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 10 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 12 | | 氧化铝：大幅反弹 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：现实压力背负与周期转变叙事博弈，宽幅震荡 | 14 | | 不锈钢：现实基本面拖累，盘面博弈印尼政策为主 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：铁锂加工费提涨，市场情绪偏强 | 16 | | 工业硅：消息面扰动，盘面表现偏强 | 18 | | 多晶硅：关注今日市场消息影响 | 18 | | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：市场情绪扰动，盘面宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：市场情绪扰动，盘面宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：市场情绪推涨，盘面震荡抬升 | 23 | | 锰硅：市场情绪推涨，盘面震荡抬升 | 23 | | 焦炭：矛盾积累，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：矛盾积累，宽幅震 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The marginal easing direction of liquidity in the US financial market remains unchanged, domestic policies offer mild stimulus, and geopolitical disturbances enhance the importance of strategic resources, so the sentiment is still relatively favorable. The tight supply of copper mines and US tariff expectations strongly support copper prices, but as prices rise, downstream demand is squeezed out, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. Overall, the upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down [2]. - Amid overseas geopolitical factors, precious metals and copper prices are expected to remain high, which will still drive up aluminum prices. Although high aluminum prices suppress downstream开工, the relatively low overseas aluminum inventory and supply - side disturbances support aluminum prices, which are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [5]. - The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the operating rate of primary lead remains relatively high, the scrap lead inventory continues to decline, the smelting profit of recycled lead is still at a relatively high level in the past six months, and the operating rate of recycled smelting has slightly rebounded. The operating rate of downstream battery enterprises has declined marginally, and the domestic social inventory of lead ingots has stopped falling and stabilized. Currently, domestic lead prices are approaching the upper edge of the oscillation range, with a high concentration of long - position funds. In the short term, the sentiment in the non - ferrous sector is high, and lead prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8]. - The visible inventory of zinc ore has declined, the TC of zinc concentrate has declined again but at a slower pace, and the smelting profit of zinc has stopped falling and stabilized. The total domestic inventory of zinc ingots has decreased. After a large number of registered warrants appeared on the LME, the Shanghai - London ratio has continued to rise. After the winter stockpiling ends, the domestic supply of zinc ore may become more abundant. In the double - easing cycle, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector is mostly bullish. Zinc prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium term and run strongly in the short term following the non - ferrous sector [10]. - Although the current demand in the tin market is weak and there is an expectation of improved supply, with low downstream inventory, the bargaining power is limited. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate following market risk preferences. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - Currently, the surplus pressure of nickel is still large, but due to Indonesia's claim to reduce RKAB quotas and the proposed tax on cobalt elements, the market's bearish sentiment has weakened. The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [14]. - On Tuesday, the market environment was bullish, and non - ferrous and precious metal - related varieties rose significantly. There were occasional disturbances in the supply news of lithium carbonate. Although the substantial impact was limited, the bullish sentiment was high, and the upward trend continued. It is recommended to wait and see or make light - position attempts. Pay attention to the market atmosphere, futures positions, and seat changes [18]. - After the rainy season, the shipments from Guinea are gradually recovering, and with the resumption of production in the AXIS mine, the ore price is expected to oscillate downward. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the cost - performance of chasing long positions is not high. If there is no actual production reduction, one can wait for an opportunity to short near - month contracts at high prices [21]. - At the end of December, driven by the news of Indonesia's RKAB plan for 2026 to set a nickel ore quota of about 250 million tons, nickel prices drove stainless steel prices to continue to strengthen. In the short term, the improvement in policy expectations promotes the rise of raw material prices and accelerates inventory reduction, providing fundamental support for the current market. If the supply quota of nickel ore is clearly tightened in the future, prices may rise further. It is recommended to consider going long at low prices and closely monitor the actual implementation of policies [24]. - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and with continuous supply - side disturbances, there is strong price support, while demand is relatively average. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly [27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Quotes**: Offshore RMB appreciated, the domestic equity market rose, and copper prices continued to rise. On January 6, LME copper 3M closed up 1.28% to $13,254/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 104,600 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 3,525 tons to 146,075 tons, mainly from Asia. The proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M maintained a premium. The daily warrants of SHFE increased by 0.3 tons to 93,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai shifted to a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the trading was poor due to the rising price. The spot in Guangdong had a premium of 15 yuan/ton to the futures, the inventory increased month - on - month, and downstream consumption weakened. The loss of SHFE copper spot imports narrowed to about 800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened to 6,100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The marginal easing direction of liquidity in the US financial market remains unchanged, domestic policies offer mild stimulus, and geopolitical disturbances enhance the importance of strategic resources, so the sentiment is still relatively favorable. The tight supply of copper mines and US tariff expectations strongly support copper prices, but as prices rise, downstream demand is squeezed out, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. Overall, the upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract on January 7 is 102,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is $13,000 - 13,500/ton [2]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: Aluminum prices continued to be strong. On January 6, LME aluminum closed up 1.41% to $3,133/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,695 yuan/ton. The position of the SHFE aluminum weighted contract increased by 34,000 to 746,000 lots, and the futures warrants increased by 0.1 tons to 84,000 tons. The domestic inventory of aluminum ingots in three regions increased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased slightly. The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to decline, and the market was in a wait - and - see mood. The spot of electrolytic aluminum in East China had a discount of 220 yuan/ton to the futures, and downstream procurement was cautious. LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.3 tons to 504,000 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M maintained a discount [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Amid overseas geopolitical factors, precious metals and copper prices are expected to remain high, which will still drive up aluminum prices. Although high aluminum prices suppress downstream开工, the relatively low overseas aluminum inventory and supply - side disturbances support aluminum prices, which are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract on January 7 is 24,100 - 25,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is $3,090 - 3,170/ton [5]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the SHFE lead index closed up 0.74% to 17,532 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 101,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME lead 3S rose by $13 to $2,033/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 178,700 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,350 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,225 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 125 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 13,500 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 30 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 236,900 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 74,400 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was - $45.52/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $106.8/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio of the disk was 1.238, and the profit and loss of lead ingot imports was 471.61 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory increased by 1,500 tons to 18,900 tons [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the operating rate of primary lead remains relatively high, the scrap lead inventory continues to decline, the smelting profit of recycled lead is still at a relatively high level in the past six months, and the operating rate of recycled smelting has slightly rebounded. The operating rate of downstream battery enterprises has declined marginally, and the domestic social inventory of lead ingots has stopped falling and stabilized. Currently, domestic lead prices are approaching the upper edge of the oscillation range, with a high concentration of long - position funds. In the short term, the sentiment in the non - ferrous sector is high, and lead prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 2.01% to 24,328 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 230,200 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME zinc 3S rose by $66 to $3,238.5/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 231,300 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,340 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 110 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was 30 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 100 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 40,800 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was 110 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 20 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 105,900 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 7,900 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was - $36.3/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $58/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio of the disk was 1.081, and the profit and loss of zinc ingot imports was - 2,244.78 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 5,300 tons to 114,000 tons [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of zinc ore has declined, the TC of zinc concentrate has declined again but at a slower pace, and the smelting profit of zinc has stopped falling and stabilized. The total domestic inventory of zinc ingots has decreased. After a large number of registered warrants appeared on the LME, the Shanghai - London ratio has continued to rise. After the winter stockpiling ends, the domestic supply of zinc ore may become more abundant. In the double - easing cycle, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector is mostly bullish. Zinc prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium term and run strongly in the short term following the non - ferrous sector [10]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: On January 6, 2026, the closing price of the SHFE tin main contract was 348,820 yuan/ton, up 4.32% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating conditions of tin ingot smelters in Jiangxi and Yunnan were generally stable at a high level. Specifically, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained at 87.09%, basically the same as last week. However, the tin ore processing fee in Yunnan was still at a low level, and the shortage of raw materials for smelting enterprises still existed, with insufficient further upward momentum. In Jiangxi, due to a significant reduction in scrap, the supply of crude tin was insufficient, and the output of refined tin continued to be at a low level. In terms of demand, the downstream consumer electronics demand entered the traditional off - season at the end of the year, but supported by orders from emerging fields such as new - energy vehicles and AI servers, the operating rate of tin solder enterprises remained stable. According to Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network data, the output of tin solder of sample enterprises in November increased by 0.95% month - on - month, and the operating rate increased slightly by 0.69% compared with October. In the spot market, downstream solder and electronic enterprises mostly adopted a low - inventory strategy, and the purchasing willingness was weak. In terms of inventory, tin inventory increased for three consecutive weeks. As of December 31, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 9,309 tons, a decrease of 1,058 tons from the previous Friday [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the current demand in the tin market is weak and there is an expectation of improved supply, with low downstream inventory, the bargaining power is limited. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate following market risk preferences. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is $39,000 - 43,000/ton [12]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: On January 6, nickel prices rose significantly. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 139,800 yuan/ton, up 4.25% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium of each brand was relatively strong. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 600 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 8,750 yuan/ton, up 1,350 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The arrival price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore was $51.37/wet ton, the same as the previous day; the arrival price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore was $23/wet ton, the same as the previous day; and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore from the Philippines was $52.7/ton, the same as last week. In terms of nickel iron, prices continued to rise. The ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was 935 yuan/nickel point, with an average increase of 5.5 yuan/nickel from the previous day [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently, the surplus pressure of nickel is still large, but due to Indonesia's claim to reduce RKAB quotas and the proposed tax on cobalt elements, the market's bearish sentiment has weakened. The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for SHFE nickel prices is 110,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for the LME nickel 3M contract is $13,000 - 18,000/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Quotes**: The evening quotation of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 133,021 yuan, up 7.45% from the previous working day. Among them, the quotation of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 132,200 - 134,800 yuan, with an average increase of 9,150 yuan (+7.36%) from the previous working day; the quotation of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 130,000 - 131,000 yuan, with an average increase of 7.94% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 137,940 yuan, up 6.12% from the previous closing price. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,750 yuan [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: On Tuesday, the market environment was bullish, and non - ferrous and precious metal - related varieties rose significantly. There were occasional disturbances in the supply news of lithium carbonate. Although the substantial impact was limited, the bullish sentiment was high, and the upward trend continued. In the first quarter, the maintenance of lithium - battery materials extended to the electrolyte end, and the price increase of lithium iron phosphate was gradually being realized. The in - the - money

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/01/06 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/26 -525 6208 111703 58647 - 2945.00 55.0 54.0 - - - 2025/12/29 -435 6790 111703 65878 -1855.70 -146.77 53.0 52.0 31.35 154575 44075 2025/12/30 -380 6108 111703 71738 -1171.20 -225.51 51.0 49.0 39.87 149475 39175 2025/12/31 -335 5700 111703 81775 -1808.32 -74.26 51.0 49.0 30.39 147425 36825 2026/01/05 -115 7082 111703 90282 -1538.75 -94.85 43.0 46.0 41.98 142550 32650 变化 220 138 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market opened positively on January 5, 2026, with major indices rising, and the Guozhen Free Cash Flow Index increasing by approximately 0.4% [1] - Notable stocks such as Fenghuo Communication reached the daily limit, with others like Yaxiang Integration, Salt Lake Co., and China Aluminum also seeing gains [1] - The largest free cash flow ETF (159201) experienced a net inflow of over 450 million yuan in the last 10 trading days, bringing its total size to 8.596 billion yuan, indicating significant capital inflow [1] Group 2 - CICC's strategy team defined 2026 A-shares as "riding the momentum," highlighting the strengthening logic of international monetary order reconstruction and the critical application phase of the AI revolution [1] - The performance of China's innovative industries is expected to continue supporting asset performance, with the importance of fundamentals in A-shares increasing after a period of valuation repair [1] - The free cash flow ETF (159201) and its linked funds are designed to closely track the Guozhen Free Cash Flow Index, selecting stocks with positive and high free cash flow, indicating high quality and strong risk resistance suitable for long-term investment [1]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 6 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价联袂走高，LME 铜收盘价再创历史新高。宏观方面，美国 12 月 ISM 制 | | | 造业指数从 48.2 小幅下降至 47.9，已连续 10 个月低于 50。新订单已连续第四个月收 | | | 缩，出口订单仍然疲弱；就业人数连续第 11 个月下降，不过降幅有所放缓。库存方面， | | 铜 | LME 库存下降 2775 吨至 142550 吨；Comex 库存增加 3204 吨至 456657 吨；SHFE 铜 | | | 仓单增加 8507 吨至 90282 吨，BC 铜维持 1053 吨。需求方面，因铜价持续高位，终端 | | | 订单有所放缓，市场维系刚性采购需求。资金仍是短线铜价的主要推手，但也会带来不 | | | 确定性风险，操作上维系铜"趋势多头思维"，建议在元旦至春节这段期间多观察，利 | | | 用宏观或情绪扰动导致的回调机会分批逢低布局。 | | | 隔夜氧化铝震荡偏弱，隔夜 AO2605 收于 2773 元/吨，跌幅 0.72%，持仓减仓 ...

每经AI快讯，"A股绿色报告"项目监控到的数据显示，中国铝业（601600）控股子公司兰州铝业有限公 司兰州铝业扁锭生产线深井铸造安全隐患综合治理项目环评审批获原则同意。该项目总投资额达3945万 元。该审批信息于2025年12月11日被相关监管机构披露。 "A股绿色报告"项目由每日经济新闻联合环保领域知名NGO公众环境研究中心（IPE）共同推出，旨在 让上市公司环境信息更加阳光透明。本项目基于31个省（区、市）、337个地级市政府发布的权威环境 监管数据，筛选监控上市公司及其旗下公司（包括分公司、参股公司和控股公司）的环境表现，加以专 业数据分析及深入解读，每日智能写作及时发布上市公司AI绿报，每周推出A股绿色周报，定期动态更 新上市公司环境风险榜。 (记者 刘志远 魏官红) 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前核实。据此操作，风险自担。 上期（总第227期）A股绿色周报显示，共有4家上市公司在近期暴露了环境风险。 ...

所长 早读 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂 | ★★★★ | 碳酸锂：需求向好预期强化，价格重心上移。需求侧支撑主要来自两方面：一是政策持续发 力强化了市场对中长期需求的信心。国内新能源汽车以旧换新政策延续，对报废更新、置换 更新分别给予车价 12%（最高 2 万元）及 8%（最高 1.5 万元）的补贴，预计补贴总量将高 于 2025 年水平，年末补贴提前结束的风险有所降低。与此同时，储能容量补偿政策覆盖范 围持续扩大，湖北省自 2 月 1 日起对独立储能执行 10 小时等效 165 元/千瓦的容量补偿标 准，全国性储能补贴政策亦有望在春节前出台，储能需求存在超预期的可能性。二是 1 月传 统淡季需求表现可能好于预期，正极厂商的实际减产力度仍有待观察。供给端方面，国务院 印发《固体废物综合治理行动计划》，提出原则上不再批准建设无自建矿山、无配套尾矿利 用处置设施的选矿项目，引发市场对锂资源供给收紧的担忧。整体而言，当前碳酸锂市场处 国泰君安期货 2026-01-06 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-06 所长 早读 今 日 发 ...

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月05日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 有色板块集体反弹，锡盘面深度调整后反弹空间较大。建议偏多思 铜： 假节后首日金银价格受避险情绪提振齐涨，铜价跟涨，沪铜重回10 万关口上方。近期铜价持续走强，一方面受美元流动性改善驱动， 另一方面铜的全球库存结构性矛盾以及自身估值修复对行情起到了 推波助澜的作用。宏观层面，美国三季度GDP和通胀均高于预期， 美元指数重回下降通道。基本面方 ...