Group 1 - The financial sector plays a crucial role in supporting various industries and the overall economy, as highlighted by the Central Financial Work Conference [1] - Xinjiang is recognized as China's largest cotton production base, benefiting from its favorable climate for cotton growth, which includes ample sunlight and significant temperature variations [2] - The cotton harvesting process in Xinjiang has become highly mechanized, with advanced machinery like the "Tian'e" cotton picker significantly improving efficiency and productivity for farmers [2] Group 2 - The cotton processing stage, known as ginning, is essential for converting seed cotton into lint cotton, which is then used for spinning [3] - Xinjiang Jianzi Cotton Industry Co., Ltd. has expanded its operations by integrating upstream and downstream processes, enhancing market reach and value addition, while also facing increased financial pressure for raw material procurement [3] - The company reports an annual revenue of approximately 2 billion yuan, supported by tailored financial products from Guangfa Bank [3] Group 3 - The transformation from raw cotton to yarn involves complex textile processes that combine modern technology with traditional craftsmanship [4] - Donghengxing Textile Technology Co., Ltd. has benefited from Guangfa Bank's financial support, which has enabled the company to innovate and improve its production capabilities [4] - The bank provided over 300 million yuan in loans to support the company's operational needs and technological advancements [4] Group 4 - Xinjiang's textile industry is positioned as a key player in China's Belt and Road Initiative and the Xinjiang Free Trade Zone, contributing to high-quality economic development [5] - Guangfa Bank aims to promote high-quality Xinjiang cotton on a global scale, supporting the region's economic and social development [5]

Group 1 - In July, cotton yarn prices increased due to a significant rise in cotton prices, which pushed the cost of cotton yarn higher. The average monthly price of cotton in China reached approximately 14,741 yuan/ton, a 3.41% increase from the previous month, but a year-on-year decrease [1] - The profit margins for cotton spinning enterprises have declined, with the theoretical monthly gross profit for pure cotton yarn dropping to -720.35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.15 yuan/ton from the previous month. The operating rate of cotton spinning enterprises was 61.20%, down 0.75 percentage points from the previous month [1] - Cotton spinning enterprises are experiencing a decrease in orders, with the average order days for Shandong cotton spinning enterprises at 4.93 days, a decline of 0.20 days from the previous month. The inventory days for pure cotton yarn increased by 11.11% to an average of 30 days [1] Group 2 - The cotton market is expected to return to fundamentals, with limited orders from downstream textile enterprises and poor profit margins potentially suppressing cotton demand. The anticipated increase in new season cotton production is also contributing to this outlook [2] - It is projected that cotton yarn prices may experience a slight decline in August, with an expected drop of 100 yuan/ton to a range of 21,100-21,700 yuan/ton. The situation will be closely monitored regarding order follow-ups and macro market changes [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Cotton futures prices reached a new high for the year. The trend strength of cotton is neutral with a value of 0 [1][4]. - Domestic cotton spot trading was average, with local basis - locked transactions and stable overall basis. The cotton yarn market was lackluster, and the cotton fabric market had few real orders and high inventory [2]. - ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly after two consecutive days of gains and were waiting for the export sales data on Thursday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2509 closed at 13,990 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 1.01%, and 14,165 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 1.25%. Trading volume was 386,635 lots, an increase of 89,128 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 883,428 lots, an increase of 37,744 lots [1]. - CY2509 closed at 20,180 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.65%, and 20,360 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.89%. Trading volume was 7,504 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 20,395 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - ICE cotton 12 closed at 68.56 cents/pound yesterday with a decrease of - 0.01% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts were 9,643, a decrease of 73 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 223, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - Cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 98, unchanged from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 98 from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Data**: - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,320 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.79%. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.81% [1]. - The price in Shandong was 15,226 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.25%. The price in Hebei was 15,313 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan/ton from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.32% [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,272 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.20%. The international cotton index M was 76.14 cents/pound, an increase of 0.58% from the previous day [1]. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 22,122 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.06% [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF9 - 1 spread was 95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: According to TTEB, cotton spot trading was average, with local basis - locked transactions and stable overall basis. Different regions and qualities of cotton had different basis quotes [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The pure - cotton yarn market had little change in trading, and the overall atmosphere was still dull. Yarn prices were stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream enterprises were gradually digesting the previous price increases. The off - season continued, and spinning mills continued to reduce production by lowering the operating rate to relieve inventory pressure. The all - cotton fabric market had few real orders, and manufacturers had high inventory and poor sales [2]. - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly after two consecutive days of gains and were waiting for the export sales data on Thursday [2]. 3.3 Trend Strength The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Core Insights - Wei Qiao Chuang Ye Group has evolved from a small cotton processing factory in Shandong to a multinational enterprise with 100,000 employees, consistently ranked among the Fortune Global 500 since 2012 [1] - The company focuses on traditional manufacturing sectors such as textiles and aluminum, while also expanding into emerging fields like new energy, new materials, and automotive lightweighting [1] - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve sales revenue of 558.3 billion yuan, contributing to employment for over 500,000 people [1] Group 1: Business Overview - Wei Qiao Chuang Ye Group is a leading player in the global cotton textile and electrolytic aluminum industries, having been recognized in the Fortune Global 500 for 13 consecutive years [1] - The company has established over 20 innovation platforms, developing more than 3,000 new products annually and holding over 2,800 patents, with 19 technologies reaching international leading standards [1] - The company operates 16 internationally advanced intelligent textile factories and is building a world-class research and manufacturing base for automotive lightweighting [1] Group 2: Development Strategies - The company emphasizes green and low-carbon development as a pathway for high-quality growth, particularly in the energy-intensive aluminum sector, by relocating some production to Yunnan to utilize hydropower and deploying solar energy in Shandong [2] - The company is actively pursuing digital transformation, leveraging AI technology to enhance production efficiency and reduce energy consumption in the aluminum sector [2] - Innovation is driven not only through product and process improvements but also through collaborations with educational institutions and research centers, fostering internal motivation for innovation and embracing AI and big data for management and operational enhancements [3]

Group 1 - The concept of "basis" is increasingly discussed and utilized in the cotton textile industry, reflecting the deep integration of cotton futures and the spot market, which is profoundly impacting the industry's development [1] - The cotton spinning industry in China is experiencing a decline in revenue and profit, influenced by regional capacity restructuring and increased competition, as well as complex international conditions and rising tariff barriers [2][3] - The correlation between cotton futures prices and the domestic spot price index CC Index3128B has remained high, with a correlation coefficient above 0.9, indicating a strong relationship between the two markets [3] Group 2 - Cotton enterprises are actively exploring new models of utilizing futures, with companies like Zhongmian Group adopting a resource control model to enhance their operational stability and risk management [4] - Large trading companies are integrating futures tools into their operations, using warehouse receipt pledge financing to support upstream cotton purchases and employing basis trading and options trading to lock in profits and mitigate risks [5] - Small and medium-sized enterprises are adopting flexible strategies to participate in the futures market, often relying on large trading firms for risk management and financing through warehouse receipt pledge financing [6] Group 3 - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has expanded its business model to provide new financing tools for cotton textile enterprises, addressing their significant financing needs [6][7] - In 2018, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange launched a comprehensive business platform that allows entities to trade warehouse receipts, catering to diverse procurement and financing needs [7] - The scale of warehouse receipt repurchase business reached 3.9 billion yuan in 2019, with a significant portion attributed to cotton warehouse receipts, indicating a growing reliance on warehouse receipt financing among enterprises [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - Cotton futures prices lacked effective drivers and retreated after a rally. The cotton market faced a complex situation with various factors influencing supply and demand, and the overall market sentiment was neutral [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,740 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.15% and a night - session closing price of 13,730 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%. CY2509 closed at 19,990 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.57% and a night - session closing price of 20,010 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.10%. ICE US cotton 12 closed at 68.04 cents/pound with a decline of 1.85%. The trading volume of CF2509 was 456,550 lots, an increase of 205,573 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 863,411 lots, a decrease of 12,095 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 11,405 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 21,776 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,273, a decrease of 29, and the effective forecast was 301, an increase of 6. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 2, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 3, a decrease of 1 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,060 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan or 0.33% compared to the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,760 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Shandong was 15,153 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan or 0.25%. The price in Hebei was 15,109 yuan/ton, an increase of 91 yuan or 0.61%. The 3128B index was 15,154 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan or 0.30%. The international cotton index M was 76.83 cents/pound, an increase of 1 cent or 0.73%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.20%, and the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 21,910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan or - 0.10% [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous day's spread. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 increased by 70 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Local cotton spot trading was slightly better than last week, with most transactions based on locked basis prices. The overall basis remained stable. There were more pre - sale quotes for new cotton in the 2025/26 season in Xinjiang [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price increase of pure - cotton yarn was less than that of cotton, and the cash - flow losses of spinning enterprises widened. Downstream demand was weak, and spinning enterprises were expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The all - cotton grey fabric market had light trading, and many fabric mills continued to cut production [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fell yesterday because the US cotton planting area in the 2025/26 season was 10.12 million acres, higher than the market average forecast of 9.8 million acres and the USDA's June supply - demand report forecast of 9.87 million acres. As of June 29, the US cotton sowing progress was 95%, compared with 97% in the same period last year and a 5 - year average of 98%. The good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 50%, up from 47% the previous week and the same as 50% in the same period last year [3][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5]

Core Viewpoint - The global cotton market has experienced significant fluctuations in the first half of the year due to trade tensions and supply-demand dynamics, with domestic cotton prices gradually recovering after hitting a near six-year low [1][2] Group 1: Cotton Price Trends - Cotton prices fell to 13,527 yuan/ton on April 9, down 992 yuan/ton from the high point earlier in the year, but began to recover following easing trade tensions from the China-U.S. Geneva economic talks in May [1][2] - The average price of China's 3128B grade cotton is expected to reach 14,417 yuan/ton in the second half of the year, an increase of 317 yuan/ton compared to the first half [3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Import Dynamics - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. has raised concerns about the stability of the global cotton textile industry, leading to a significant increase in import cotton costs and a shift towards Brazilian cotton, which accounted for 45% of imports in the first half of 2024 [2] - By 2025, the proportion of U.S. cotton imports is expected to drop to 20%, while Brazilian cotton's share may rise to 57% [2] Group 3: Industry Restructuring and Innovation - The cotton textile industry is focusing on "new quality productivity" to reshape competitive advantages through supply chain resilience [4] - Xinjiang is actively promoting the development of the cotton and textile industry chain, aiming to enhance the local conversion rate of cotton and build industry clusters [4] - Companies are leveraging technological innovation and digital transformation to enhance production resilience, with initiatives like smart factories and AI-driven optimization [4] Group 4: Future Outlook and Industry Strategy - Despite low revenue and profit levels in the cotton textile industry expected in the first half of 2025, structural adjustments such as capacity expansion and digital transformation are showing initial results [5] - The industry is encouraged to focus on high-quality development to address external uncertainties, emphasizing technological innovation and supply chain enhancement [5]

Group 1 - The global cotton market is entering a new production cycle, with major cotton-producing countries like China, Brazil, and Australia expected to increase their output [1] - China's cotton planting area is projected to reach 44.823 million acres by 2025, with Xinjiang's area growing by 3.3% year-on-year, benefiting from favorable weather conditions [1] - Domestic cotton market shows a nuanced situation, with import tariffs closing the import window, leading some companies to use domestic cotton, resulting in a reduction of cotton inventory and a tightening of high-grade cotton supply [1] Group 2 - Concerns about future cotton prices persist, with the market characterized by "large supply, stable consumption, strong support, and weak driving forces," leading to expectations of price fluctuations [2] - The new cotton basis and purchase prices are expected to be lower than in 2024, with long-term high basis levels likely unsustainable due to a global supply exceeding demand [2] Group 3 - The cotton textile industry is facing renewed pressure due to declining cotton prices and insufficient terminal demand, leading to a drop in average profit margins and effective demand [4] - Revenue and profit in the industry have fallen to their lowest levels in over a decade, with revenues for 2023-2024 projected to shrink to below one trillion yuan and total profits at only 21.7 billion yuan [4] - The operating profit margin has decreased from 3.09% in 2022 to 1.82% in the first four months of 2025, with the loss ratio expanding to 28.1%, marking a historical high [4]

Core Viewpoint - The global cotton market is expected to experience a significant increase in production, with major producing regions such as China, Brazil, and Australia anticipating higher yields. However, the cotton price may face downward pressure as new crops are harvested in October [1][2]. Group 1: Cotton Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic cotton basis remains strong, reflecting structural supply-demand contradictions, particularly a shortage of high-grade cotton. The increase in domestic cotton usage is driven by tariff hikes that have forced some enterprises to switch to local cotton [3][4]. - The current cotton inventory is continuously depleting, leading to a marginal improvement in the cotton market fundamentals. However, the demand remains weak, particularly during the textile off-season from June to September, which could put pressure on the cotton basis [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Challenges and Profitability - The cotton textile industry is facing significant challenges, including persistently low average profit margins and insufficient effective demand. This has led to an accelerated industry reshuffle, with the scale of cotton textile revenue expected to shrink to below one trillion yuan, marking a significant decline from previous years [5][6]. - The profit margin for large-scale cotton textile enterprises has decreased from 3.09% in 2022 to 1.82% in the first four months of 2025, indicating a continuous downward trend and the highest loss ratio in the industry [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Development Initiatives - Despite the current challenges, the cotton textile industry has a solid foundation and potential for long-term growth. The industry is encouraged to optimize its structure, enhance technological innovation, and focus on green development to maintain confidence and improve its image [7]. - The industry is expected to further align with macro policies, develop new productive forces, and deepen industrial transformation to promote high-quality development while preventing unhealthy competition [7].

Core Viewpoint - The global cotton market is expected to experience a significant increase in production, with major producing regions such as China, Brazil, and Australia anticipating higher yields [1]. Domestic Market - Currently, the domestic cotton basis remains strong, with high-grade cotton in short supply. The increase in tariffs has forced some companies to switch to domestic cotton, leading to a continuous reduction in cotton inventory and a marginal improvement in the fundamentals. Experts believe that with the new crop coming in October, the cotton basis is likely to return, putting pressure on cotton prices [2][4]. - The cotton textile industry is facing severe challenges due to the dual pressures of raw material supply shocks and insufficient end demand. The first half of the year has seen significant pressure on the industry, leading to increased polarization among companies [3][8]. Global Cotton Production - The global cotton production is set to increase significantly, with new crop prices and basis expected to be lower than last year. The USDA balance sheet indicates a slight oversupply compared to demand, with external prices lower than U.S. planting costs but higher than Brazilian costs. Macro uncertainties such as tariffs and dollar credit will be major disruptive factors [6][8]. Industry Challenges - The cotton spinning industry is currently facing a prolonged low average profit margin, insufficient end demand, and complex international conditions, leading to an accelerated industry reshuffle. The revenue of large-scale cotton spinning enterprises is expected to shrink to below one trillion yuan, with their share of the textile industry dropping below 20%, a significant decline from the peak period in 2016 [8][9]. - The operating profit margin of large-scale cotton spinning enterprises has been continuously declining, with projections showing a drop from 3.09% in 2022 to 1.82% in early 2025, marking a new low [9][10]. - The loss ratio among large-scale cotton spinning enterprises has further expanded, reaching 28.1% in early 2025, up from 22.5% in 2024, indicating a record high for industry losses [10]. Future Outlook - Despite the various external risks and challenges, the cotton spinning industry still possesses a solid foundation, numerous advantages, and significant potential for growth. The long-term positive trend of the industry is expected to remain unchanged. The industry aims to leverage macro policies, develop new productive forces, deepen industrial transformation, and promote high-quality development while enhancing self-discipline to prevent vicious competition [10].