Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean Oil**: China's soybean oil inventory continues to accumulate with sufficient supply and currently lacks bullish drivers. However, as the traditional consumption season in Q4 and the best - value oil, inventory is expected to stop increasing and decline, and the futures price center may move up slightly. It's advisable to hold long positions in the main contract, with support at 8150 - 8200 yuan/ton and resistance at 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Despite macro - risk disturbances and a weakening in the futures market, the spot basis remains firm. With anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports, supply will gradually tighten. Although high current inventory restricts the futures price, there is a strong de - stocking expectation. It's recommended to wait for stabilization and then go long lightly, with support at 9768 - 9785 and resistance at 10249 - 10266 [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The recent decline in crude oil and increased palm oil production in Malaysia have led to a price drop. But the inventory pressure in Southeast Asian production areas is not large, and with the B50 test in Indonesia, the supply - demand situation is expected to narrow in Q4. Aggressive strategies can consider holding long positions or buying out - of - the - money call options after stabilization, with support at 9230 - 9270 and resistance at 9650 - 9680 [2]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: The supply of soybean meal and bean No. 2 is abundant, and the consumption of soybean meal is entering the off - season. The futures price of soybean meal is likely to remain weak. It's recommended to hold short positions lightly or sell out - of - the - money call options for soybean meal, and consider going long on the 01 contract oil - meal ratio [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The upward driving force is insufficient, but the downside is limited. There is no obvious single - side trading opportunity. Consider going long on the 01 contract rapeseed oil - meal ratio, with support at 2354 - 2370 and resistance at 2474 - 2500 [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The external market is under pressure, and the domestic market is also bearish due to the new - season harvest and poor downstream profits. It's recommended to hold short positions cautiously, with the 11 - contract corn support at 2000 - 2050 and resistance at 2180 - 2200, and the 11 - contract corn starch support at 2340 - 2350 and resistance at 2500 - 2520 [4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The new - season soybeans in the Northeast are on the market, and the price is polarized. With low valuation and active downstream purchases, it's advisable to go long lightly, with support at 3900 - 3930 yuan/ton and resistance at 4030 - 4050 yuan/ton [5]. - **Peanuts**: Although the new - season peanut production is expected to increase, the adverse weather in Henan has affected yields. It's recommended to hold long positions temporarily, with support at 7550 - 7900 and resistance at 8020 - 8160 [5]. - **Pigs**: The futures and spot prices stopped falling and rebounded. The industry is reducing weights and increasing the supply. It's advisable for cautious investors to hold short - near and long - far spreads, and wait for capacity reduction to buy the 2607 contract at low prices [7]. - **Eggs**: The futures price continued to rebound from the bottom. The spot price is in the off - season. It's recommended to avoid shorting blindly. Aggressive investors can go long on the 2512 contract at low prices, with the reference range at 2950 - 3200 points [7]. Summary by Directory 1. First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations a. Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support | Resistance | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 11 | New domestic soybeans are in abundant supply, and downstream purchases are relatively active under low valuation | 3900 - 3930 | 4030 - 4050 | Oscillating strongly | Go long lightly | | | Soybean No. 2 11 | Sufficient current inventory of oil - pressing soybeans, continuous Sino - US trade friction, and no purchase of new - season US soybeans | 3500 - 3540 | 3675 - 3700 | Oscillating adjustment | Wait and see | | | Peanut 11 | Increasing market supply, poor yield performance in parts of Henan | 7500 - 7600 | 8020 - 8162 | Oscillating adjustment | Wait and see | | Oils | Soybean Oil 01 | Little change in fundamentals, affected by crude oil fluctuations. Sufficient supply currently, and the supply - demand outlook is positive in Q4 | 8150 - 8200 | 8400 - 8450 | Oscillating up | Go long lightly | | | Rapeseed Oil 01 | Fewer purchase orders, de - stocking expected | 9768 - 9785 | 10249 - 10266 | Oscillating adjustment | Go long after stabilization | | | Palm 01 | Malaysian palm oil production exceeds expectations, but inventory pressure in production areas is not large. Indonesia plans to promote B50, and the long - term outlook is bullish | 9230 - 9270 | 9650 - 9680 | Oscillating adjustment | Go long after stabilization | | Protein | Soybean Meal 01 | Sufficient inventory of oil - pressing soybeans and soybean meal, and the feed demand for soybean meal is expected to weaken in Q4. The bullish factor is the continuous Sino - US trade friction | 2800 - 2850 | 2960 - 2970 | Oscillating adjustment | Hold short positions | | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | Expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, and seasonal demand weakening | 2354 - 2370 | 2474 - 2500 | Oscillating adjustment | Wait and see | | Energy and By - products | Corn 11 | The market is under pressure seasonally, but the listing rhythm may have some disturbances | 2000 - 2050 | 2180 - 2200 | Bearish expectation | Hold short positions cautiously | | | Starch 11 | The cost of corn is under pressure, and the spot supply is slightly loose. The futures price of starch follows the downward trend | 2340 - 2350 | 2500 - 2520 | Bearish expectation | Hold short positions cautiously | | Livestock | Pigs 11 | Feed prices stopped falling and rebounded, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened | 12800 - 13000 | 13000 - 13800 | Oscillating to find the bottom | Switch to waiting and seeing | | | Eggs 12 | Capacity pressure + expectation of the consumption peak season | 2900 - 3100 | 3300 - 3350 | Oscillating to find the bottom | Wait and see | [10] b. Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery Arbitrage**: Most varieties are recommended to wait and see, except for pigs 1 - 3 and eggs 10 - 1, which are recommended to go long at low prices [12]. - **Inter - variety Arbitrage**: For oils, 01 soybean oil - palm oil is recommended for short - biased operation, 01 rapeseed oil - soybean oil for long - biased operation, and 01 rapeseed oil - palm oil to wait and see. For protein, 01 soybean meal - rapeseed meal is in low - level oscillation. For the oil - meal ratio, the 01 soybean oil - meal ratio and 01 rapeseed oil - meal ratio are recommended for long - biased operation. For energy and by - products, 11 starch - corn is recommended to wait and see [12]. c. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies | Sector | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Main Contract Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 | 3960 | 3960 | - 7 | 94 | | | Soybean No. 2 | 3960 | 3960 | 347 | 39 | | | Peanuts | 7400 | 7400 | - 342 | 80 | | Oils | Soybean Oil | 8620 | 8620 | 310 | 8 | | | Rapeseed Oil | 10180 | 30 | 221 | - 35 | | | Palm Oil | 9280 | 20 | - 50 | 54 | | Protein | Soybean Meal | 2920 | - 10 | 78 | 78 | | | Rapeseed Meal | 2430 | - 30 | 82 | 14 | | Energy and By - products | Corn | 2120 | - 20 | 58 | 3 | | | Starch | 2570 | 0 | 169 | - 17 | | Livestock | Pigs | 10.92 yuan/kg | 0.07 yuan/kg | - 450 | - 275 | | | Eggs | 2.42 yuan/jin | - 0.07 yuan/jin | 48 yuan/500kg | - 44 yuan/500kg | [13] 2. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table a. Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: Includes import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods [14]. - **Weekly Data**: Shows the inventory and operation rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [16]. b. Feed - **Daily Data**: Presents the import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil [16]. - **Weekly Data**: Displays the consumption, inventory, operation rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [17]. c. Livestock - **Daily Data**: Provides the daily price changes of live pigs and eggs [18][19]. - **Weekly Data**: Shows the key weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including prices, costs, profits, and production - related data [20][22]. 3. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock End (Pigs, Eggs)**: Includes charts of futures and spot prices of pigs and eggs, as well as related prices such as piglets and white - striped pigs [24]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: - **Palm Oil**: Covers production, inventory, import, and price - related charts in Malaysia [34]. - **Soybean Oil**: Includes charts of US soybean crushing, inventory, and domestic operation rates and inventory [41]. - **Peanuts**: Involves charts of market supply, processing, and price - related data [50]. - **Feed End**: - **Corn**: Includes price, inventory, import, and processing - profit - related charts [56]. - **Corn Starch**: Covers price, operation rate, and inventory - related charts [64]. - **Rapeseed**: Includes spot price, inventory, and basis - related charts [68]. - **Soybean Meal**: Involves US soybean growth, inventory, and price - spread - related charts [74]. 4. Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils Includes historical volatility charts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as option trading volume and open - interest charts of corn [90]. 5. Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils Shows the warehouse receipt quantity and open - interest charts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [93].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a majority decline in the night session on October 14, with energy products leading the drop, particularly low-sulfur fuel oil which fell by 1.90% [1] Group 1: Energy Products - Low-sulfur fuel oil decreased by 1.90% [1] Group 2: Non-Metallic Building Materials - All non-metallic building materials saw a decline, with glass dropping by 1.48% [1] Group 3: Chemical Products - Most chemical products declined, with PTA falling by 1.30% [1] Group 4: Oilseeds and Oils - Most oilseeds and oils also experienced a decline, with soybean oil decreasing by 0.65% [1] Group 5: Black Metals - The black metal sector mostly declined, with iron ore dropping by 0.51% [1] Group 6: Agricultural Products - Agricultural products showed gains, with corn increasing by 0.43% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - **Protein Meal**: The night - session of soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed higher. Tensions in Sino - US trade relations weakened the export prospects of US soybeans, depressing US soybean prices. Although the market strongly expects the US Department of Agriculture to lower the US soybean yield per unit in this month's USDA report, the report is postponed due to the US government shutdown, suppressing market trading. With US soybeans being harvested and listed, reduced export demand will continue to pressure US soybean prices, which are expected to be weak. In the domestic market, the previous valuation of Sino - US trade improvement will be revised upwards due to the renewed trade conflict. The expectation of tight supply in the later period and the expectation of tariff upgrades will boost the performance of Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: The night - session of oils and fats showed a strong performance. The MPOB released this month's supply - demand report. In September, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.841 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73%; exports were 1.428 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.7%, basically in line with market expectations. As of the end of September, Malaysia's palm oil inventory was 2.3609 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.2%. The MPOB report shows that inventory accumulation is higher than expected. Meanwhile, uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and increased macro - disturbances may put short - term pressure on the oils and fats market. However, in the medium to long term, the Southeast Asian production areas will enter the production - reduction season, and international biodiesel policies will continue to support the consumption demand for oils and fats [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8,268, 9,364, and 10,022 respectively, with changes of - 34, - 74, and - 39, and percentage changes of - 0.41%, - 0.78%, and - 3.15%. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the previous day's closing prices were 2,932, 2,400, and 8,844 respectively, with changes of 10, - 58, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.34%, - 2.36%, and 0.29% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 were - 320, - 538, and - 380 respectively, compared with previous values of - 296, - 574, and - 602. The current values of ratios - spreads like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, and M - RM09 were - 74, 3, and 458 respectively, compared with previous values of - 85, 0, and 396 [1]. 3.2 International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4,473 ringgit/ton, 1,008 cents/bushel, 51 cents/pound, and 275 dollars/ton respectively, with changes of - 26, 1, 1, and - 1, and percentage changes of - 0.58%, 0.12%, 1.12%, and - 0.40% [1]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil were 8,470 and 8,570 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.82% and - 0.81%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil were 9,320 and 9,260 respectively, with percentage changes of - 2.10% and - 2.11%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil were 10,270 and 10,270 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.96% and - 1.06% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil and other products were 202, etc. The current spot spreads such as the difference between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil was - 560, compared with a previous value of - 590 [1]. 3.4 Import and Crushing Profits - The current values of import and crushing profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. were - 465, 29, etc., compared with previous values of - 60, - 210, etc [1]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, and other products were 25,444, 1,500, etc., compared with previous values of 25,444, 1,570, etc [1]. 3.6 Industry Information - As of October 11, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 11.1%, compared with 8.2% last week, 9.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 16.9% [2]. - The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) of the United States will release its September report on Thursday. Analysts expect the soybean crushing volume in September to be around 185 million to 190 million bushels, compared with 189.81 million bushels in August and 178.2 million bushels in the same period last year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Long - term bullish, short - term correction and consolidation [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The report maintains the view that the medium - and long - term trend of oils and fats is upward, but there may be a short - term correction due to Sino - US trade frictions [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. Reasons include expected heavy rain in palm oil producing areas in India and Malaysia in the next two weeks, reduced oil mill crushing volume, and a trend of inventory reduction for three major oils [5] - **Demand**: Wait - and - see. The B50 policy in Indonesia is being actively promoted, the US biofuel Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) is undetermined and may depend on trade frictions, and the domestic peak season is lackluster with lower trading volume compared to the same period [5] - **Inventory**: Slightly bullish. Although the total domestic oils and fats inventory increased last week mainly due to reduced holiday pick - up, it is expected to decline overall later considering soybean oil mills' reduced crushing to support prices and rapeseed oil mills' lack of raw materials [5] - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. There is uncertainty about RVO. Sino - US trade frictions have tightened the outlook for distant - month soybeans, Indonesia's B50 is in road tests and expected to be implemented in the second half of next year [5] - **Investment View**: Long - term bullish, short - term correction and consolidation [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: Long oils and short meals in distant months, and long the January contract and short the May contract for palm oil; Options: Buy out - of - the - money call options [5] 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of major oils and fats contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as various price spreads such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, OI1 - 5 spreads, and spot price spreads between domestic soybean oil, palm oil, etc [7][9][14] 3.3 Oils and Fats Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Southeast Asia Weather**: It shows future precipitation and temperature anomaly forecasts in Southeast Asia [19][21] - **Indonesia Monthly Supply - Demand**: Data on Indonesia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are presented [30][34] - **Malaysia Monthly Supply - Demand**: Data on Malaysia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are provided [35][41] - **India Monthly Import and International Bean - Palm Spread**: Information on India's imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the price spread between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil is given [42][46] - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand**: Data on China's palm oil import cumulative value, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and import profit are shown [48][50] - **US Soybean Situation**: It includes future precipitation and temperature forecasts in US soybean - producing areas, soybean's excellent - good rate, leaf - falling rate, harvesting progress, and US and Brazilian export data [60][70][72] - **Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: Data on China's soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly soybean oil production of domestic crushing plants, daily trading volume, and weekly inventory are presented [88] - **Canadian and European Rapeseed Situation**: Future precipitation and temperature forecasts in Canadian and European rapeseed - producing areas, soil moisture in Canada, and relevant export and arrival data are shown [89][98][101] - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation**: Information on rapeseed FOB price, Canadian weekly rapeseed export volume, domestic rapeseed expected arrival volume, and relevant production, inventory, and trading volume data of rapeseed oil are provided [102][103][112]

Report Information - Report Title: Oilseeds and Oils Industry Daily Report - Date: October 13, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures opened lower with a gap, briefly dropping to 4,450 ringgit due to the decline in US soybean oil prices before showing signs of a rebound. The SPPOMA's slowing production growth and strong export data from shipping agencies may support the market. After consolidation, there is a chance for the futures to strengthen further and potentially break through previous highs [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures are in a downward adjustment phase, breaking below the 40 - day moving average and facing downward pressure. They are expected to fill the previous gap. After stabilization, influenced by the rebound of Malaysian palm oil, there is a possibility of a resurgence. If they can rise above the 40 - day moving average, they may follow the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil [3]. Soybean Oil - The decline of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil on October 10 due to the deterioration of Sino - US trade relations led to a slight drop in Dalian soybean oil. However, the bearish sentiment has eased, and the stabilization of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil has limited the decline of Dalian soybean oil. Domestically, with sufficient soybean supply and high inventory, and weakening demand after restocking, the fundamentals are bearish. The January contract is currently oscillating around the daily mid - track at 8,300 yuan, with a potential for further decline [4]. Soybean Meal - Dalian's January contract price of soybean meal rebounded weakly, affected by the uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations. However, the ample supply in the spot market restricts its upward momentum. The market is focused on the progress of the communication between Chinese and US leaders at the end of the month, with the price oscillating narrowly between 2,920 - 2,960 yuan/ton. As of the end of the 41st week of 2025, the domestic soybean meal inventory decreased by 100,000 tons to 1.003 million tons compared to the previous week, a 9.11% decline. With high inventory in oil mills and continuous capacity reduction in the breeding sector, the spot price lacks upward momentum and is trading between 2,900 - 3,150 yuan/ton [17]. Price and Spread Information Oil Price and Spread - Palm Oil: Palm oil futures prices showed declines across different contracts. The BMD palm oil main contract dropped 1.69% to 4,467 ringgit/ton. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou decreased by 220 yuan to 9,220 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou 24 - degree basis increased by 122 yuan to 2 yuan/ton [8]. - Soybean Oil: The prices of soybean oil futures contracts also had mixed changes. The CBOT soybean oil main contract fell 1.96% to 49.97 cents/pound. The price of Shandong first - grade soybean oil decreased by 60 yuan to 8,450 yuan/ton, and the basis remained unchanged at 208 yuan/ton [14]. - Oil Spreads: Various oil spreads such as P 1 - 5, P 5 - 9, Y - P 01, etc., showed different changes. For example, P 1 - 5 decreased by 38 yuan/ton to 172 yuan/ton, and Y - P 01 increased by 102 yuan/ton to - 1,136 yuan/ton [5]. Oilseed Price and Spread - Oilseed Futures Prices: The prices of oilseed futures contracts like soybean meal and rapeseed meal had different movements. For instance, soybean meal 01 rose 10 points to 2,932, with a 0.34% increase, while soybean meal 05 fell 8 points to 2,746, a 0.29% decline [18]. - Oilseed Spreads: Spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, such as M01 - 05, RM01 - 05, also changed. M01 - 05 remained unchanged at 168, while RM01 - 05 decreased by 38 to 63 [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: The downside space is limited, with support at the [8700] price level. The p2601 contract is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the medium - long term, considering the tight supply situation in Southeast Asia and biodiesel policy support. However, short - term fluctuations are significant due to trade and biodiesel news [3]. - Soybean oil: The downside space is limited, with support at the [7700] price level. The y2601 contract is expected to follow other oils in a relatively strong oscillation. The supply is expected to turn tight at the end of the fourth quarter in China, affected by factors such as the decline in soybean arrivals and uncertain Sino - US trade relations [3]. - Rapeseed oil: The downside space is limited, with support at the [9600] price level. The Ol601 contract is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly. The 2024/25 global rapeseed inventory pressure is limited, and the 2025/26 production is expected to recover, which may suppress the price. Attention should be paid to the production realization in major producing countries [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Since the holiday, BMD crude palm oil has been oscillating strongly, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. However, on Friday, the MPOB report showed higher - than - expected inventory, and the overall oil price declined. The tariff war and the sharp drop in international crude oil are expected to lead to a short - term weakening of palm oil [13][14]. - **Supply and Demand in Malaysia**: In September 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 0.73% month - on - month, imports increased by 33.95% month - on - month, exports increased by 7.69% month - on - month, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.2% month - on - month. From October 1 - 10, the export volume increased compared with the same period in September [15]. - **Supply and Demand in Indonesia**: As of July, Indonesia's inventory remained at a historical low. The production in July was 5.6 million tons, the export volume was 3.007 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory was 2.57 million tons. The export continued to grow faster than the production, and the inventory remained at a historical low. The reference price of crude palm oil in October was set at $983.61 per ton, and the export tax remained at $124 per ton. The implementation of the B0 policy in the first half of the year was relatively good, and the government is accelerating the implementation of the B50 policy [15]. - **Indian Market**: India's palm oil imports decreased significantly in January - April, and the inventory reached a low level. From May to August, imports continued to grow, and it is expected to remain at a high level in September to support the exports of Indonesia and Malaysia. The cost - performance of international soybean oil is slightly lower than that of palm oil, but the subsequent imports are still expected to remain at a relatively high level [32]. 3.2 Soybean and Soybean Oil - **US Market**: Recently, CBOT soybean futures first rose and then fell. The supply pressure of US soybeans is emerging as they enter the harvest season, but the reduction in planting area and the increase in consumption have tightened the supply. The US EPA's biofuel policy is unclear, which has increased market uncertainty. The future weather in the main soybean - producing states in the US may affect the harvest [50][51][53]. - **South American Market**: According to the USDA's September forecast for the 2025/26 season, Brazil's soybean production will increase to 175 million tons, and Argentina's will be 48.5 million tons. Brazil's export peak has passed, and it is expected that the premium of Brazilian soybeans will remain strong. Argentina has restored the export tax on soybeans, and it is expected that the premium in South America will also remain strong [76]. - **Domestic Market**: In the short term, the supply of domestic soybeans and soybean oil is relatively loose, but it is expected to turn tight at the end of the fourth quarter. The 40th week (September 27 - October 3) of soybean oil production was 833,600 tons, and the 41st week is expected to be 257,800 tons. The trading volume has decreased significantly [109][112]. 3.3 Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - **Global Market**: In the 2024/25 season, the global rapeseed supply tightened marginally, and the carry - over inventory decreased significantly. In the 2025/26 season, the USDA expects a recovery in production, and the supply - demand contradiction is expected to be limited. The Chinese government has imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the Canadian government is trying to negotiate [85]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, but the subsequent rapeseed purchases are expected to decline, and the supply in the far - month is expected to tighten. As of October 3, the coastal rapeseed oil production was 8,200 tons, and the delivery volume was 0 tons. With the decrease in rapeseed crushing, the rapeseed oil production may decline significantly [110][112]. 3.4 Domestic Oils - **Market Performance**: After the holiday, the oils first rose and then fell, and the center of gravity remained basically unchanged. The short - term oils are expected to be weak, and the meal may perform better than the oils. In the medium - long term, palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to be oscillating strongly, and soybean oil will follow other oils [108][109][110]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of palm oil in China is relatively loose, the supply of soybean oil is expected to turn tight at the end of the fourth quarter, and the supply of rapeseed oil is expected to tighten in the far - month. The trading volume of palm oil has increased slightly, the trading volume of soybean oil has decreased significantly, and the production of rapeseed oil may decline significantly [109][110][112].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile and weakening [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Adjusting [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 50: Volatile [4] - CSI 300: Volatile [4] - CSI 500: Downward [4] - CSI 1000: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Upward [4] - Gold: Strongly volatile [4] - Silver: Strongly volatile [4] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Offset paper: Volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Widely volatile [6] - Palm oil: Widely volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Widely volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and bullish [7] - Rubber: Volatile [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Volatile [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Views - The black sector is affected by tariff expectations, and the price trends of different varieties vary. The financial market is influenced by trade policies, and the bond and precious metal markets show specific trends. The light industrial and agricultural product markets are affected by supply and demand, policies, and weather. The polyester market has complex supply and demand situations and price trends [2][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Affected by Trump's tariff pressure and supply-side news, the short-term unilateral drive is not strong, and the price trend is relatively stronger than that of finished products. The key lies in steel demand after the holiday [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Tariff expectations suppress the black sector. Domestic coking coal production is expected to be lower than last year, and the demand for coke is strong. The first round of coke price increases has been implemented, and the second round has basically failed [2] - **Rebar and hot-rolled coils**: The static valuation of rebar is low, and the supply pressure is slightly high. Focus on the demand recovery in October. The high supply and continuous inventory accumulation of finished products bring pressure, and the price needs to cooperate with rapid de-stocking to stabilize [2] - **Glass**: The short-term supply and demand pattern has not improved significantly, and the inventory has increased. The real estate completion decline drags down the demand. Pay attention to the demand repair in the peak season and production capacity policies [2] - **Soda ash**: The short-term supply and demand are basically balanced. Pay attention to the marginal repair in the peak season [2] Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The stock index closed down in the previous trading day. Soft drinks and forestry sectors had capital inflows, while semiconductors and computer hardware sectors had outflows. The market risk aversion sentiment has increased, and it is recommended to reduce risk preference [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and the market trend is upward. Hold long positions in Treasury bonds [4] - **Gold and silver**: Gold is in a strongly volatile state. Its pricing mechanism is changing, and it is affected by factors such as the US debt problem, interest rates, geopolitical risks, and physical demand. Silver also shows a similar trend [4] Light Industry and Agriculture - **Logs**: The port daily shipment volume has increased, the supply pressure is not large, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to be range-bound [6] - **Pulp**: The spot market price has mixed trends, and the cost support has increased. However, the demand improvement is uncertain, and it is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - **Offset paper**: The spot market price is stable, the production is relatively stable, and the demand is expected to improve. It is expected to be volatile [6] - **Oils and fats**: The global trade situation is deteriorating, and the supply of oils and fats is abundant. It is expected to continue the wide-range volatile pattern [6] - **Meal products**: The global trade relationship has deteriorated, and the supply pressure of meal products is increasing. It is expected to be volatile and bearish [6] - **Live pigs**: The average transaction weight is declining, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [7] - **Rubber**: The supply pressure in Yunnan has decreased, and the production in Hainan is lower than expected. The demand and inventory situation are complex, and it is expected to be volatile [7] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The supply and demand are increasing, and the price follows the oil price [8] - **PTA**: The supply and demand have marginally improved, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The price follows the cost [8] - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased, the supply pressure has increased, and the short-term cost fluctuates greatly [8] - **PR**: The post-holiday replenishment is weak, and the market may be volatile and weak [8] - **PF**: The cost support is still weak, but the downstream start-up is stable. It is expected to be volatile and sorted [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report Palm Oil - International Market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a high - level correction. MPOB inventory at 236 million tons exceeded the market estimate of 215 million tons, but the export growth in the first 10 days supported the market. Short - term focus is on whether it can stop falling and stabilize between 4,500 - 4,550 ringgit. If it can stand above 4,500 ringgit, there's a chance to strengthen; otherwise, it may fall to 4,350 ringgit [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures are also in a correction. Affected by Malaysian palm oil, there's pressure to break below the 40 - day moving average and fill the gap, with a possible drop to 9,000 yuan. The overall trend depends on Malaysian palm oil. As domestic temperatures drop after the National Day holiday, palm oil consumption will weaken, keeping the market in a near - strong and far - weak pattern [3]. Soybean Oil - After the National Day holiday, traders replenished stocks. As replenishment ends, demand will weaken. In the fourth quarter, soybean imports are estimated at 28 - 29 million tons, and factories will maintain high operating rates, dragging down the futures market. Before the Sino - US summit, CBOT soybeans are range - bound, having limited impact on domestic oils. The January contract of Dalian soybean oil faces pressure at 8,400 yuan, is expected to fluctuate around 8,300 yuan, and may fall back to 8,000 yuan due to sufficient supply [4]. Bean Meal - The theoretical spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal has improved, but without a clear Sino - US trade negotiation result, Dalian bean meal lacks a continuous driving force and is expected to trade between 2,900 - 2,950 yuan/ton in the short term. Spot prices of oil mills decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Supply - side: After the holiday, oil mills resumed production, and inventories in East and South China are accumulating. Demand - side: Post - holiday prices of poultry and pigs fell, and feed enterprises are digesting high - cost inventories. The short - term market shows weak supply and demand, with spot prices expected to range from 2,900 - 3,100 yuan/ton [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oil and Fat Monthly and Inter - Variety Spreads - Provided data on spreads such as P 1 - 5, P 5 - 9, Y - P 01, etc., including prices and daily changes [5]. Palm Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices - Showed the latest prices and price changes of palm oil contracts (01, 05, 09), BMD palm oil, and spot prices in Guangzhou, as well as palm oil basis and other data [8]. Domestic First - Grade Soybean - 24 - Degree Palm Oil Spread - No specific data summary provided, only mentioned the topic and source [11]. Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices - Presented the latest prices and price changes of soybean oil contracts (01, 05, 09), CBOT soybean oil, and spot prices in Shandong, as well as soybean oil basis and other data [14]. POGO Spread and Related Data - Provided information on POGO spread and the weekly average spread between US biodiesel and diesel, along with their sources [16]. Oilseed Futures Prices - Gave the closing prices, daily changes, and price change rates of bean meal (01, 05, 09), rapeseed meal (01, 05, 09), CBOT soybeans, and the offshore RMB [19]. Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - Included data on spreads such as M01 - 05, M05 - 09, RM01 - 05, etc., as well as spot prices and basis of bean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions, and the spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal [20][22]. International Soybean Crushing Profit - Showed the crushing profit of international soybeans and imported rapeseed from overseas, along with their sources [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: International market - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures continue to rise with short - term pressure near previous highs, waiting for Wednesday's MPOB report. Inventory estimates for end - September range from 2.05 to 2.34 million tons. Depending on the report and export data, it will choose a new direction. Domestic market - Dalian palm oil futures had a gap - up opening after the holiday, with a chance to continue rising. It should be watched whether it can break through previous highs. If not, there is a risk of a pull - back and filling the gap. The view of near - term strength and long - term weakness is maintained [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: After the long holiday, traders need to replenish stocks, which boosts the Dalian soybean oil market. However, domestic soybean oil supply is abundant, and imports from October to December are large. Factory inventories are unlikely to decrease rapidly, and some factories are exporting due to potential over - stock. The upside of Dalian soybean oil is limited. The January contract is near the daily middle - rail at 8,310 yuan. If it fails to break through, it may fall; if it breaks through, the upper target is the daily upper - rail at 8,520 yuan, but continuous rise is unlikely [4]. - **Bean Meal**: The Dalian bean meal 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 2,930 - 2,960 yuan, affected by Sino - US trade negotiation expectations and ample supply. Spot prices are in the 2,900 - 3,100 yuan/ton range. After the holiday, oil mills resume production, but feed enterprises' high inventory and slow inventory reduction of oil mills limit the spot price rebound [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Oil Price and Spread - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil 01 is at 9,570 yuan/ton with a 3.71% increase; 05 is at 9,360 yuan/ton with a 3.59% increase; 09 is at 8,916 yuan/ton with a 3.29% increase. BMD palm oil is at 4,571 ringgit/ton with a 0.57% increase. The POGO spread is at 513.167 dollars/ton with a decrease of 1.168 dollars/ton [7][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Soybean oil 01 is at 8,332 yuan/ton with a 0.38% increase; 05 is at 8,074 yuan/ton with a 0.62% increase; 09 is at 8,006 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase. CBOT soybean oil is at 51.34 cents/pound with a 1.74% increase. The domestic first - grade soybean - 24 - degree palm oil spread is - 820 yuan/ton with a decrease of 140 yuan/ton [14]. - **Inter - month and Inter - variety Spreads**: For palm oil, P 1 - 5 is 192 yuan/ton with an 18 - yuan increase; P 5 - 9 is 404 yuan/ton with a 32 - yuan increase; P 9 - 1 is - 596 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan decrease. For soybean oil, Y 1 - 5 is 244 yuan/ton with no change; Y 5 - 9 is 68 yuan/ton with no change; Y 9 - 1 is - 312 yuan/ton with no change. Y - P spreads and Y/M, OI/RM spreads are also provided [5]. 3.2. Oilseed Futures Price - **Bean Meal**: Bean meal 01 closes at 2,939 with an 11 - point increase and a 0.38% rise; 05 closes at 2,755 with a 17 - point increase and a 0.62% rise; 09 closes at 2,863 with a 16 - point increase and a 0.56% rise [19]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal 01 closes at 2,435 with a 14 - point increase and a 0.58% rise; 05 closes at 2,334 with a 17 - point increase and a 0.73% rise; 09 closes at 2,415 with a 12 - point increase and a 0.5% rise [19]. - **CBOT Yellow Soybean**: Closes at 1,029.75 with no change [19]. - **Offshore RMB**: Closes at 7.1527 with a 0.0096 increase and a 0.13% rise [19]. 3.3. Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - **Bean Meal Spreads**: M01 - 05 is 184 with a 6 - point decrease; M05 - 09 is - 108 with a 1 - point increase; M09 - 01 is - 76 with a 5 - point increase [20][22]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spreads**: RM01 - 05 is 101 with a 3 - point decrease; RM05 - 09 is - 81 with a 5 - point increase; RM09 - 01 is - 20 with a 2 - point decrease [20][22]. - **Spot Spreads**: The spot spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal is 410 with a 10 - point increase; the futures spread is 504 with a 3 - point decrease [22].

根据路透对十位交易商、种植商和分析师的调查中值估计，马来西亚9月棕榈油库存可能较8月减少 2.5%，至215万公吨。 后市来看，棕榈油期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 10月9日，国内期市油脂油料板块涨跌不一。其中，棕榈油期货主力合约开盘报9452.00元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，棕榈油主力涨近4%，触及三周新高。 印尼能源部长表示，该国正在推进其计划，将在2026年强制推行B50生物柴油，以减少汽油进口。印尼 目前是全球最大的棕榈油生产国，当前强制实施B40生物柴油计划。 马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）发布的数据，马来西亚9月1-30日棕榈油产量预估减少2.35%，其中马来 半岛减少6.17%，沙巴增加2.35%，沙捞越增加6.62%，东马来西亚增加3.44%，预估9月马来西亚棕榈油 总产量为181万吨。 正信期货表示，豆系产地相对平淡，马棕累库节奏放缓、印尼棕榈油需求强劲，节日期间马棕涨约4% 并逼近前高，预计节后国内油脂将跟盘上涨。棕榈油前期剩余多单及节前低点新建多单继续持有。 宁证期货分析称，供应方面，主产国进入减产期，印尼非法种植园整改，利多棕榈油价格；需求方面国 内餐饮 ...