Group 1: Hot News - The US Trade Representative's Office extended the tariff exemptions on China's technology transfer and intellectual property issues until November 10, 2026, which were originally set to expire on November 29, 2025 [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to address disorderly price competition among enterprises to maintain market price order [2] - From January to October 2025, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%, but in October, the profits decreased by 5.5% year - on - year [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation will strengthen anti - monopoly law enforcement in key areas and fair competition reviews [2] - Russian President Putin said the US peace plan could be the basis for a Ukraine agreement, and the US delegation will visit Moscow next week [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch include lithium carbonate, coke, coking coal, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [4] - Night - trading performance shows that different commodity futures sectors had varying degrees of price changes, with precious metals up 30.01%, non - metallic building materials up 3.02%, and so on [4] Group 3: Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, with different trends for each sector [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity market, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.29%, a monthly decrease of 2.01%, and a yearly increase of 15.62%. Other indices also had their respective performance [6] - In the fixed - income market, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures all had negative returns to varying degrees [6] - In the commodity market, the CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and the Wind commodity index had different price changes [6] - Other assets such as the US dollar index and CBOE volatility index also showed their own trends [6]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market closed mixed on November 26, with chemical products leading the gains, particularly methanol which rose by 1.82% [1] - All non-metallic building materials increased, with glass up by 1.27% [1] - Most energy products saw an increase, with LPG rising by 0.52% [1] Group 2 - The black series experienced the largest declines, with coke falling by 0.96% [1] - Most oilseeds and oils decreased, with rapeseed oil down by 0.46% [1] - Agricultural products showed mixed results, with corn dropping by 0.40% [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term adjustment of the stock - bond market is expected, but the medium - term trend remains optimistic, and the high - tech industry continues to grow. The interest rate of treasury bonds is consolidating, and the market trend rebounds slightly [3]. - The coal - coke market is adjusting at a high level due to concerns about supply resumption. The supply and demand of finished products are expected to remain stable, and the impact of December's macro - policies on winter storage should be noted [4]. - The market's expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut is less than 40%, and the long - term support for gold prices comes from the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [5]. - Log prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom due to weak spot prices, increased supply, and weak demand [6]. - Natural rubber prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term due to strong cost support and weak demand [7]. - Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to sufficient domestic supply and weak demand [8]. - Oil prices rise due to the increased probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut. PX, PTA, and MC show different supply - demand and price trends [9]. - Hog prices may remain volatile as sufficient supply is offset by increased consumption [10]. Summary by Related Categories Stock - Bond Market - The short - term adjustment of the stock - bond market is expected, with the medium - term trend remaining optimistic. The high - tech industry continues to grow. Treasury bond interest rates are consolidating, and the market rebounds slightly [3] Black Industry - Affected by import news and supply - guarantee meetings, the coal - coke market adjusts at a high level. The supply and demand of finished products are expected to be stable, and the impact of December's macro - policies on winter storage should be noted [4] Gold Market - The market's expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut is less than 40%. The long - term support for gold prices comes from the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [5] Log Market - Spot log prices are weak, supply is under pressure, demand is hard to sustain, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6] Rubber Market - Due to rainfall in the main production areas, cost support is strong. Demand is weak, and prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term [7] Soybean and Soybean Meal Market - US soybean export is weak, domestic supply is sufficient, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8] Oil and Chemical Market - Oil prices rise due to the increased probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut. PX, PTA, and MC show different supply - demand and price trends [9] Hog Market - Hog supply is sufficient, consumption may increase, and prices may remain volatile [10]

【国富棕榈油研究周报】马棕出口表现疲软，棕榈油价格下跌 20251124 国富研究 国富研究 2025年11月24日 07:20 上海 油脂油料周度行情 目录 | í | 行情回顾 | | --- | --- | | 1. | BMD 马棕 | | 2. | DCE 棕榈油 | | | 二、产区天气 | | | 1. 棕榈油产区天气 | | ( | 国际供需 | | 1. | 马棕11月预测 | | 2. | 其他重要资讯 | | 四、 | 国内供需 7 | | 1 | 中国 10 月棕榈油进口 . | | 2. | 进口利润 | | 3. | 棕榈油成交 | | 4. | 棕榈油库存 | | 五、 | 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 12 | | 1. | 基差、月差、品种差情况 | | 2. | 棕榈油仓单数量和期货持仓量 | | | 3. FOB 报价 | 2公众号 · 国富研究 油脂油料周度行情 一、 行情回顾 1. BMD 马棕 外盘方面,本周BMD 马棕主力切换至 02 合约。截至 11月21 日收盘, BMD 马棕 01 合约收于 4063 令吉/吨,较上周下跌 1.50%; BMD 马棕 02 ...

| | 1、据船运调查机构ITS数据显示，马来西亚11月1日至20日棕榈油出口量为831005吨，环比上月同 | | --- | --- | | | 期下降20.5%。2、据美国农业部(USDA)网站11月20日消息，民间出口商报告向中国出口销售 | | 行业 | 462000吨大豆和132000吨小麦，2025/2026市场年度付运。 | | 信息 | | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕偏强运行，usda供需报告下调25/26年度美豆单产预估至53蒲式耳/蒲,由此美 | | | 豆产量下降至42.53亿蒲，最终美豆期末库存预估为2.9亿蒲，9月报告预估为3亿蒲，产量和库存 | | | 均下降从数据上看为利多。但由于此前市场对于报告调整力度预期偏高，而实际报告数据利多不 | | | 足。但近期公布的数据来看，美豆压榨需求强劲，根据NOPA数据显示10月压榨大豆2.27亿蒲式 | | | 耳，较9月增长15.1%，较去年同期增长13.9%；但由于近期美豆期价上涨较多因此出现一定回调。 | | | 国内豆粕仍维持宽松格局，库存处于高位，预计连粕短期跟随美豆调整为主。 | | 评论 | 油脂：夜盘豆棕油偏弱运行，菜油震 ...

Group 1: Report Core Views Palm Oil - International market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures declined under fundamental bearish pressure. SPPOMA data showed a production increase of over 10% from the 1st to the 20th. With concerns about weak exports, palm oil prices dropped significantly, breaking below the 4,100 ringgit support. There is short - term downward pressure towards 4,000 ringgit, with a chance of a brief rebound. If the production growth issue persists, prices may fall to the 3,950 - 3,960 range [3]. - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures were weak. Affected by the decline in Malaysian palm oil, prices broke below 8,600 yuan and hit a new low. They are expected to test the 8,500 - yuan support. There is a risk of falling to 8,200 yuan if Malaysian palm oil briefly breaks below 4,000 ringgit, which is also supported by the 250 - week moving average [3]. Soybean Oil - Domestic soybean oil futures declined due to international market trends, including a possible delay in the US reducing biofuel import subsidies, weak Malaysian export data, and optimistic prospects for Russia - Ukraine peace talks. Domestic demand is poor, and supply is sufficient, pressuring the futures market. The January contract of Dalian soybean oil fell to 8,170 yuan, close to the 8,150 - yuan semi - annual moving average. There is a chance of testing this support level [4]. Bean Meal - Dalian bean meal futures showed narrow - range fluctuations. Hedging pressure and weak US soybean prices limited upward movement, while cost support restricted downward space. The short - term range is expected to be between 2,980 - 3,030 yuan. Spot prices are expected to range from 2,950 - 3,200 yuan/ton [14]. Group 2: Price Data Oil Price Data - Palm oil: Palm oil 01 was at 8,550 yuan/ton (-1.11%), palm oil 05 at 8,668 yuan/ton (-1.19%), palm oil 09 at 8,532 yuan/ton (-1.14%), BMD palm oil at 4,149 ringgit/ton (-0.14%), Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil at 8,600 yuan/ton (-70), and its basis at 24 yuan/ton (+96) [6]. - Soybean oil: Soybean oil 01 was at 8,190 yuan/ton (-0.17%), soybean oil 05 at 7,982 yuan/ton (-0.28%), soybean oil 09 at 7,926 yuan/ton (-0.38%), CBOT soybean oil at 51.07 cents/pound (-0.74%), Shandong first - grade soybean oil at 8,330 yuan/ton (-100), and its basis at 206 yuan/ton (-268) [10]. Oilseed Price Data - Bean meal: Bean meal 01 was at 3,012 (-0.17%), bean meal 05 at 2,803 (-0.28%), bean meal 09 at 2,915 (-0.38%), and CBOT soybeans at 1,123 (0%) [15]. - Rapeseed meal: Rapeseed meal 01 was at 2,431 (+0.79%), rapeseed meal 05 at 2,367 (-0.42%), and rapeseed meal 09 at 2,435 (-0.37%) [15]. Spread Data - Oil spreads: P 1 - 5 was -126 yuan/ton (-36), P 5 - 9 was 142 yuan/ton (-8), P 9 - 1 was -16 yuan/ton (+44), Y - P 01 was -422 yuan/ton (+74), etc. [5]. - Oilseed spreads: M01 - 05 was 209 (+3), RM01 - 05 was 64 (+29), M05 - 09 was -112 (+3), etc. [16][19]

我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 油油油MPOB 油油油油油 油油油油 2 0 2 5 / 1 1 / 1 1 作者：聂波 从业资格证号：F03117695 交易咨询证号：Z0019358 研究联系方:niebo@zjtfqh.com 观点小结 周末美国环境保护署允许两份小型炼油厂100%豁免申请，但是有12份只获得50%的豁免申请，同时也拒绝了两份豁免申请， 美豆油主力跌破50美分/磅，但是并未持续较长时间，毕竟此前有消息称关于小型炼油厂豁免申请的批复被延迟到明年初， 虽然也没有豁免义务再分配的消息，但是市场更想等待2026年以以后的合规义务分配量，从EIA公布的8月数据，豆油在美 国生柴的投料比例回升至39%，但是废弃油脂以及动物脂肪的投料比例下跌明显，美豆油需求仍然旺盛，只是略低于去年同 期。 油脂 定性 解析 核心观 中性 10月马来西亚棕榈油产量环比增加11.02%至204万吨，高于市场预估的194-195万吨，分地区来看，马来半岛环比增加6.55%， 沙捞越州和沙巴州分别增15%和19%，进入10月产区旱季明显，多数地区降雨偏低，且10月假期少，当 ...

油脂油料产业日报 2025/11/19 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Oil and Oilseed Industry Daily Report - Date: November 18, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures rose, supported by rising Chicago soybean oil and Dalian edible oil markets, as well as a weakening ringgit. However, the market has not escaped the range-bound adjustment above 4,100 ringgit. The increase in palm oil production (4.09%) and decrease in exports (15%-50%) in the first half of the month have dragged down the market. If CBOT soybean oil continues to rise, BMD palm oil may break through 4,200 ringgit and continue to climb; otherwise, it will maintain a narrow range above 4,100 ringgit [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures opened higher and fluctuated within a narrow range, remaining within the previous trading range. Domestic palm oil lacks price competitiveness (palm oil prices are higher than soybean oil), and port inventories increased by nearly 25,000 tons over the weekend, creating a bearish fundamental outlook. In the short term, the DCE palm oil January contract will continue to fluctuate around 8,700 yuan. If BMD palm oil surpasses 4,200 ringgit and continues to rise, Dalian palm oil will follow suit, with the January contract potentially reaching the daily middle track at around 8,920 yuan. Otherwise, it will maintain a narrow range [3]. Soybean Oil - Domestic soybean oil futures rose slightly, boosted by the previous day's increase in CBOT soybeans and soybean oil due to China's purchase of at least 14 cargoes of US soybeans. However, the increase was limited due to sufficient factory supply and lukewarm downstream demand. The domestic soybean oil fundamentals currently have little impact on the market, and the market remains influenced by international related varieties. In the short term, the market is watching whether China will continue to purchase US soybeans. If CBOT soybeans continue to rise, the January contract of Dalian soybean oil may break through the daily upper track resistance at 8,350 yuan and reach around 8,500 yuan. Otherwise, the January contract will face pressure at the daily upper track, and after a period of consolidation, it may enter a profit-taking phase [4]. Soybean Meal - In the short term, in the absence of weather-related news, the main contract of Dalian soybean meal is expected to fluctuate along the half-year line. On the spot market, the fixed prices of oil mills increased by 10-30 yuan/ton, but traders were cautious about following the price increase due to high inventories and rolling replenishment by end-users. Additionally, news of state reserve sales of imported soybeans and the expectation of US soybean purchases ensuring supply in the first quarter of next year have led the market to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. The spot price of soybean meal is expected to trade in the range of 3,000-3,250 yuan/ton [15]. Summary by Category Oil Price and Spread - Palm Oil: The January contract was priced at 8,708 yuan/ton, up 0.32%; the May contract at 8,822 yuan/ton, up 0.3%; the September contract at 8,692 yuan/ton, up 0.53%. The BMD palm oil main contract was at 4,184 ringgit/ton, up 0.79%. The price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou was 8,650 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [7]. - Soybean Oil: The January contract was priced at 8,320 yuan/ton, down 0.07%; the May contract at 8,092 yuan/ton, up 0.64%; the September contract at 7,998 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract was at 51.14 cents/pound, up 1.97%. The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Shandong was 8,480 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [11]. - Price Spread: The P 1-5 spread was -116 yuan/ton; the P 5-9 spread was 150 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the P 9-1 spread was -34 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. The Y-P 01 spread was -398 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Y-P 05 spread was -752 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the Y-P 09 spread was -684 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [5]. Oilseed Futures Price and Spread - Futures Price: The January contract of soybean meal was priced at 3,041 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the May contract at 2,832 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the September contract at 2,947 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan. The January contract of rapeseed meal was priced at 2,431 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the May contract at 2,397 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the September contract at 2,456 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The CBOT yellow soybean was at 1,157.5 cents/bushel, unchanged [16]. - Spread: The M01-05 spread was 229 yuan/ton; the M05-09 spread was -116 yuan/ton; the M09-01 spread was -113 yuan/ton. The RM01-05 spread was 56 yuan/ton; the RM05-09 spread was -65 yuan/ton; the RM09-01 spread was 9 yuan/ton [17][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market of the feed, breeding, and oil industries shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. Some products are in a state of supply - demand balance adjustment, while others are affected by factors such as international market conditions, policies, and seasonal changes [3][4][5]. - For individual products, some are recommended for temporary observation, some for specific trading strategies like selling put options or low - buying on dips, and some for arbitrage operations [3][4][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Judgment - **Oilseeds**: - The price of domestic new soybeans has cooled the purchasing sentiment of the middle and lower reaches, but farmers' reluctance to sell remains. The price of soybean No.1 is expected to run strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - After the bullish factors in the November supply - demand report were realized, the price of soybean No.2 followed the decline of US soybeans and is expected to be in a volatile adjustment, also recommended for waiting and seeing [10]. - **Oils**: - Soybean oil has sufficient supply and increasing consumption, with fewer soybean purchases in the fourth quarter. It is expected to build a bottom in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [10]. - Rapeseed oil has a continuous marginal inventory reduction trend, and the market sentiment is boosted. It is expected to be volatile and strong, and it is recommended to buy on dips [10]. - Palm oil has stabilized after a previous sharp decline, but the upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to be in a bottom - building and volatile state, and it is recommended to try long positions with a light position or sell out - of - the - money put options [10]. - **Protein**: - The cost - side support of soybean meal is obvious, and it is expected to run strongly. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Rapeseed meal has short - term supply shortages, but the expectation of supply is alleviated, and it is in a seasonal off - season for demand. It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Energy and By - products**: - Corn has a slight rebound expectation, but the pressure of concentrated supply limits the rebound height. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Corn starch follows the slight rebound of corn prices and is also recommended for waiting and seeing [10]. - **Breeding**: - The price of live pigs is expected to find a bottom in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to switch to waiting and seeing [10]. - The price of eggs is expected to find a bottom in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to buy on dips [10]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - For most cross - period and cross - variety arbitrage operations, it is recommended to wait and see, except for some operations such as going long on the corn 5 - 1 spread at low prices and positive arbitrage on the live pig 1 - 3 spread at low prices [11][12]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various products in different sectors, which can be used as a reference for spot - futures operations [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It shows the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping months, including CNF prices, arrival - at - port duty - paid prices, etc. [15][16]. - **Weekly Data**: It presents the inventory and operating rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts, showing the supply - side situation of the oils and oilseeds market [17]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and different months [17]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises, reflecting the supply - demand relationship in the feed market [18]. 3.2.3 Breeding - **Daily Data**: It shows the daily price data of live pigs and eggs, including prices in different regions and price changes compared with the previous day, week, month, and year [19][20][21]. - **Weekly Data**: It presents the weekly price, cost, profit, slaughter data, and inventory data of live pigs and eggs, reflecting the overall situation of the breeding market [20][21]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Breeding End (Live Pigs, Eggs)**: It includes the closing prices of live pig and egg futures contracts, spot prices, and related price data charts, which can be used to analyze the price trends and market conditions of the breeding end [23][25][26]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: - **Palm Oil**: It shows charts related to Malaysian palm oil production, exports, inventory, import profits, and domestic palm oil inventory and trading volume, etc., to help analyze the supply - demand relationship and price trends of palm oil [33][34][37]. - **Soybean Oil**: It includes charts of US soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean oil factory operating rate, inventory, and trading volume, etc., to analyze the soybean oil market [40][42][43]. - **Peanuts**: It presents charts of peanut arrival and shipment volume, pressing profit, operating rate, and inventory, etc., to understand the peanut market [45][47]. - **Feed End**: - **Corn**: It shows charts of corn futures prices, spot prices, basis, inventory, import volume, and processing profit, etc., to analyze the corn market [49][54][55]. - **Corn Starch**: It includes charts of corn starch futures prices, spot prices, basis, operating rate, inventory, and processing profit, etc., to analyze the corn starch market [57][59][66]. - **Rapeseed Products**: It presents charts of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, basis, inventory, pressing volume, and pressing profit, etc., to analyze the rapeseed products market [59][63][64]. - **Soybean Meal**: It shows charts of US soybean growth indicators, inventory, basis, and price spreads, etc., to analyze the soybean meal market [66][71][78]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oils - It provides charts of historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options, to help analyze the option market [81][82]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oils - It shows the warehouse receipt quantity and open interest charts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs, which can be used to analyze the market supply and demand and price trends from the perspective of warehouse receipts [84][85][86].