Core Insights - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum focused on risk management in the oilseed and oil market, highlighting the importance of canola oil and peanuts in China's agricultural landscape [1][2] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) has opened its canola oil, canola meal, and peanut futures and options to foreign traders, with significant participation from international grain merchants [1] - The oilseed and oil futures have become essential risk management tools for industry chain enterprises, contributing to food security in China [1][2] Group 1 - Canola oil is the second-largest plant oil in terms of production and consumption in China, while peanuts have the highest self-sufficiency rate among major oilseed crops [1] - In the first seven months of 2023, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported an average daily trading volume of 4.69 million contracts for oilseed and oil futures and options, a 21% increase year-on-year [1] - The average daily open interest reached 8.09 million contracts, reflecting a 33% year-on-year growth, with institutional clients accounting for nearly 70% of the positions [1] Group 2 - The oilseed and oil futures market has evolved beyond being a mere "safe haven" to becoming a stabilizing force for numerous enterprises in China [2] - Industry leaders suggest that in the face of increasing international policy and market uncertainties, enterprises should utilize hedging and financial tools to enhance operational resilience [2] - Risk management in the oilseed sector should closely monitor global production, import-export dynamics, tariff policy adjustments, and biodiesel industry policies [2]

Group 1 - The forum focused on how the futures market can assist the oilseed and oil industry in responding to trade changes, highlighting the importance of oilseed safety as a critical component of food security in China [1][2] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) emphasized its mission to support the real economy by providing a high-quality risk management system through product innovation and collaboration with the industry [1][2] - The global trade landscape is undergoing significant changes, which poses challenges to the stability and competitiveness of the oilseed and oil industry, necessitating enhanced market functions and service quality [2] Group 2 - COFCO Oils Holdings has effectively utilized futures and derivative tools to mitigate price volatility risks, ensuring stable operations within the oilseed and oil sector [3] - The oilseed and oil sector has developed a relatively complete derivative product system, which serves as a valuable risk management tool for the industry [3] - Industry representatives discussed the changing global oilseed trade landscape and the challenges and opportunities faced by import and processing enterprises during a roundtable discussion [3]

Group 1 - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum was held, focusing on the agricultural products market, particularly edible oils [1] - Wang Zhaohui, Deputy General Manager of COFCO Oils, discussed the risks and responses in the domestic canola and peanut oil markets due to changes in supply and demand [1] Group 2 - For the canola oil market, it is projected that in the 2025/2026 season, China will have an additional supply of 19.6 million tons of rapeseed, with domestic production at 17.1 million tons and imports at 2.5 million tons [1] - Domestic canola oil supply is expected to be sufficient before the fourth quarter of this year, influenced by production and import levels [1] Group 3 - In the peanut oil market, the National Grain and Oil Center indicates that peanut production will increase by 400,000 tons in the 2024/2025 season, with consumption and crushing demand rising by 100,000 tons and 300,000 tons respectively [1] - Due to reduced imports, the ending stocks for the 2024/2025 season are expected to drop to low levels [1] - Current peanut crops are in a critical growth stage, and future weather conditions during growth and harvest, as well as yield and import levels, need to be monitored [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Oil and Oilseed Industry Daily Report - Date: August 20, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Core Views Palm Oil - **International Market**: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a high - level volatile consolidation. Due to concerns about production growth and a slowdown in export growth in the second half of the month, there is pressure for the futures to fall below 4,500 ringgit and further weaken, with an expected test of the 4,350 - 4,400 ringgit range for support. After a short - term stabilization, there is a chance to rebound to 4,500 ringgit. In the long term, affected by seasonal production growth and the expected significant inventory increase from August to September, the futures price may decline to 4,000 ringgit [3]. - **Domestic Market**: The Dalian palm oil futures are also in a high - level volatile consolidation. After breaking below the 9,500 yuan support, there is pressure for further weakening, with an expected test of the 9,200 yuan platform for support, and strong support at around 9,000 yuan. After the current adjustment, there is a possibility of the futures strengthening again. The long - term upward trend remains good, and it is currently considered a Wave 4 adjustment [3]. Soybean Oil - International crude oil decline due to expected easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and concerns about potential changes in the US biodiesel policy have dragged down the vegetable oil market. The expected high yield of US soybeans has also affected domestic oils. In the domestic market, the current downstream demand is not strong, but due to expected increased domestic demand and potential price increases of palm oil during the Indian Diwali festival, the Dalian soybean oil futures may rise after the adjustment, with support for the January contract at around 8,300 yuan [4]. Soybean Meal - The slowdown in the decline of South American soybean premiums and institutional oil - meal arbitrage adjustments support soybean meal. Institutions such as Qiankun and Morgan have increased their long positions by over 10,000 lots, making the short - term trend of the main contract of Dalian soybean meal firm, oscillating around 3,150 yuan. The spot prices of oil mills are mostly stable, with some slightly decreasing. Feed mills' physical inventories can generally last until the end of September, and the slow purchase progress for December - January shipments leads to a consistent bullish expectation for the long - term soybean meal price. The short - term spot price is expected to range from 3,000 to 3,200 yuan/ton [17]. Price Information Oil Price Spread | Spread Type | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 308 | 8 | | P 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | - 256 | - 6 | | P 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 52 | - 2 | | Y 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 320 | - 62 | | Y 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | - 348 | 66 | | Y 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | 28 | - 4 | | OI 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 151 | 5 | | OI 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | - 199 | - 27 | | OI 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | 48 | 22 | | Y - P 01 | yuan/ton | - 1114 | - 46 | | Y - P 05 | yuan/ton | - 1126 | 24 | | Y - P 09 | yuan/ton | - 1034 | - 48 | | Y/M 01 | - | 2.6972 | - 0.07% | | Y/M 05 | - | 2.8854 | 0.99% | | Y/M 09 | - | 2.7478 | - 0.35% | | OI/RM 01 | - | 3.7826 | - 0.3% | | OI/RM 05 | - | 3.8719 | 0.16% | | OI/RM 09 | - | 3.696 | 0.84% | [5] Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices | Contract | Unit | Price | Today's Change (Rate) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 9554 | - 0.89% | | Palm Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 9248 | - 0.9% | | Palm Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 9486 | - 1.06% | | BMD Palm Oil Main | ringgit/ton | 4496 | - 0.55% | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | 9440 | - 220 | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Basis | yuan/ton | 20 | 94 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 546.91 | - 1.168 | | International Soybean - Palm Oil | US dollars/ton | - 49.6 | 5 | [8] Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices | Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8414 | - 0.03% | | Soybean Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 8124 | 0.56% | | Soybean Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 8442 | 0.1% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main | cents/pound | 51.84 | - 2.72% | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Spot | yuan/ton | 8430 | - 200 | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Basis | yuan/ton | 104 | - 10 | | BOHO (Weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 55.602 | - 10.9904 | | Domestic First - grade Soybean Oil - 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | - 900 | - 150 | [13] Oilseed Futures Prices | Contract | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3160 | - 1 | - 0.03% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2860 | 16 | 0.56% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3116 | 3 | 0.1% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2627 | 23 | 0.88% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2517 | 12 | 0.48% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2667 | - 11 | - 0.41% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1033.25 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1865 | 0 | 0% | [18] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spread | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 300 | - 17 | RM01 - 05 | 110 | 11 | | M05 - 09 | - 256 | 13 | RM05 - 09 | - 150 | 23 | | M09 - 01 | - 44 | 4 | RM09 - 01 | 40 | - 34 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3020 | - 30 | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 140 | - 29 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2550 | - 7 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | - 54 | - 21 | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 470 | - 30 | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 533 | - 24 | [19][21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the global supply of vegetable oils is increasing, with domestic supply in China being stable, and prices are within a historically reasonable range [1] - The global production of nine major vegetable oils is expected to reach 235 million tons in the 2025/2026 season, an increase of 6.37 million tons year-on-year, with soybean oil, palm oil, and sunflower seed oil contributing significantly to this growth [1] - Key factors to watch in the future vegetable oil market include tariff policies, soybean arrival conditions in the fourth quarter, palm oil production increases, and biodiesel industry policies [1] Group 2 - Global vegetable oil consumption is projected to reach 224 million tons in the 2024/2025 season, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, with industrial consumption growing faster than edible consumption [2] - By the 2025/2026 season, global vegetable oil consumption is expected to further increase to 230 million tons, with industrial consumption accounting for 28% of total consumption, up from 22.2% in the 2010/2011 season [2] - The growth in biodiesel production is significantly driving the increase in global industrial consumption of vegetable oils, with nearly 20% of vegetable oils being used for biodiesel [2]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum highlighted the significant role of the edible vegetable oil market in China, noting that while imports have decreased, they still dominate the market. The overall price of vegetable oils in China has increased due to global supply-demand balance, but remains within a historically reasonable range. Future market trends will be influenced by tariff policies, soybean import conditions in Q4, palm oil production increases, and biodiesel industry policies [1][2]. Supply Analysis - The global production of nine major vegetable oils is on the rise, with an expected output of 235 million tons for the 2025/2026 season, an increase of 6.37 million tons year-on-year. This includes a production increase of 2.65 million tons for soybean oil, 1.79 million tons for palm oil, and 1.65 million tons for sunflower seed oil [1]. Demand Analysis - For the 2024/2025 season, global vegetable oil consumption is projected to reach 224 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3%. This includes a 2.3% increase in edible consumption and a 2.7% increase in industrial consumption. By the 2025/2026 season, total consumption is expected to rise to 230 million tons. Notably, industrial consumption is anticipated to account for 28% of total consumption, up from 22.2% in the 2010/2011 season, indicating a significant shift in consumption structure [2].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of futures hedging for oilseed and oil enterprises to stabilize operations and mitigate risks in the context of increasing price volatility in the commodity market [1][2] - Jinlongyu (金龙鱼) is highlighted as a leader in the industry, showcasing outstanding performance in its futures hedging business and setting a benchmark for information disclosure in the sector [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - Jinlongyu reported a revenue of 1156.82 billion yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.67% [2] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 17.56 billion yuan, a significant increase of 60% compared to the previous year [2] - The non-recurring net profit was 13.89 billion yuan, showing a remarkable growth of 764% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Hedging Strategy and Industry Trends - The hedging strategy has evolved from merely risk defense to becoming a strategic foundation for stable operations, integrating futures tools with spot operations [2][4] - The overall participation rate in hedging within the grain and oil processing industry is high, with both large and small enterprises engaging in hedging activities [3] - The industry is moving towards a phase characterized by comprehensive coverage, refined operations, and strategic enhancement in hedging practices [3] Group 3: Information Disclosure Practices - Jinlongyu has set a standard for transparent information disclosure regarding its hedging activities, allowing investors to understand the effectiveness of risk management [6][8] - The company’s half-year report provided detailed information on hedging tools, their purposes, and the financial impacts, enhancing investor trust [6][7] - The shift towards transparent disclosure is seen as crucial for improving investor confidence and understanding of financial risks and performance [8][9] Group 4: Industry Implications - Jinlongyu's practices serve as a model for other companies in the oilseed and oil sector, highlighting the importance of effective risk management and value creation through hedging [9][10] - The article suggests that companies should recognize the significance of hedging in both risk management and value creation, while also prioritizing accurate and timely information disclosure [9][10] - The future of the industry will likely see continued price volatility, making hedging an essential tool for enterprises to achieve sustainable development [10]

8月18日，国内期市油脂油料板块多数飘红。其中，棕榈油期货主力合约开盘报9520.00元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，棕榈油主力最高触及9672.00元，下方探低9520.00元，涨幅达1.96%附 近。 据船运调查机构SGS公布数据显示，预计马来西亚8月1-15日棕榈油出口量为537183吨，较上月同期出 口的399366吨增加34.5%。 船运调查机构AmSpec数据显示，马来西亚8月1-15日棕榈油出口量环比增长21%。 上周五中午有消息显示，印尼动用军队已经查封了300多万公顷的非法油棕种植园，约占印尼官方种植 总面积的20%。 后市来看，棕榈油期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 宝城期货分析称，马来西亚棕榈油局7月供需数据影响中性偏多，印尼马来纷纷上调出口关税，支撑价 格韧性。目前印尼生物柴油政策虽然实施时间存在不确定性，但需求增长仍未棕榈油价格提供长期支 撑。国内棕榈油期价缺乏自身驱动，整体跟随国际棕榈油期价走势，短期仍是易涨难跌走势。 正信期货表示，产地供需及政策均有支撑，棕榈油破位上行，前期低位多单继续持有。 ...

Core Insights - The domestic oilseed market shows mixed performance, with palm oil futures rising over 2% while peanut futures decline slightly [1] - As of August 18, the main contracts for various oilseeds have shown the following price changes: canola meal up 1.13% to 2592.00 CNY/ton, canola oil up 0.85% to 9862.00 CNY/ton, and palm oil up 2.02% to 9596.00 CNY/ton [1] Price Trends - On August 18, the opening and closing prices for key oilseed futures were as follows: - Soybean oil: opened at 8558.00 CNY, previous close at 8534.00 CNY - Palm oil: opened at 9520.00 CNY, previous close at 9460.00 CNY - Canola oil: opened at 9783.00 CNY, previous close at 9757.00 CNY - Canola meal: opened at 2557.00 CNY, previous close at 2546.00 CNY [2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of August 15, warehouse receipts for various oilseed futures showed the following changes: - Soybean oil: 14840 contracts, down 2130 from the previous day - Palm oil: 1420 contracts, unchanged - Canola oil: 3487 contracts, unchanged - Soybean meal: 10925 contracts, unchanged - Canola meal: 9821 contracts, unchanged [3] Basis and Spot Prices - The basis and spot prices for key oilseed products as of August 15 are as follows: - Canola oil: spot price 9876.67 CNY, futures price 9779 CNY, basis 97 CNY - Canola meal: spot price 2648.33 CNY, futures price 2563 CNY, basis 85 CNY - Palm oil: spot price 9428 CNY, futures price 9406 CNY, basis 22 CNY - Soybean meal: spot price 3092 CNY, futures price 3137 CNY, basis -45 CNY [4]

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