【导读】美团龙珠创始合伙人朱拥华预判，现制饮品行业未来5年将新增6家上市公司 "我们投资古茗6年，现在账面盈利约50亿元，我们内部判断，这个项目最终有可能赚到100亿元。要相信那些从头到尾经历 了一个时代的公司，它们在后期的爆发力是惊人的。"在12月2日举办的咖门·2026万有饮力年度大会上，美团龙珠创始合伙 人朱拥华的一席话，再度点燃外界对新茶饮行业的想象。 （中国基金报记者郑俊婷摄） 美团龙珠是中国知名的产业投资基金，早期专注于大消费领域，投资案例包括蜜雪冰城、古茗、喜茶、Manner等。朱拥华 预判，未来5至10年，中国咖啡与茶饮市场将达到万亿元规模，且未来5年将新增6家上市公司，其中包括喜茶和茶颜悦色。 记者在现场了解到，本次大会吸引了茶饮行业和咖啡行业的数十家公司参会，既包括星巴克中国、蜜雪冰城等头部标杆， 也有泰柯茶园、麦记牛奶公司等新锐黑马。 在圆桌论坛环节，来自山东、河北、广西、福建等地的区域品牌代表共同探讨了如何将"在地化"转化为品牌的核心竞争 力。 以莫沫南路为例，这家来自山东临沂的本土品牌，只有200多家门店，却是当地消费者心中的宝藏品牌。 "快速增长结束，行业新周期开启。"饮品行业资深 ...

Core Insights - The founder partner of Meituan Longzhu, Zhu Yonghua, predicts that the ready-to-drink beverage industry will see six new listed companies in the next five years, including Heytea and Chayan Yuese [1] - The Chinese coffee and tea market is expected to reach a trillion yuan scale in the next 5 to 10 years [1] Group 1: Market Trends - In Q3, the tea beverage market saw a revenue increase of 16.5% year-on-year, with transaction volume up by 39.2%, but the average transaction value decreased by 16.3% [2] - The coffee market experienced a revenue growth of 27.3% year-on-year, with transaction volume increasing by 42.6%, while the average transaction value fell by 10.7% [2] - The total number of tea beverage stores decreased by 4% to 408,000, while coffee store numbers increased by 12.8% to 193,000 by the end of Q3 [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - An "M-shaped" ecosystem is forming in the beverage industry, with leading brands expanding significantly while new brands emerge rapidly [2] - Traditional mid-sized brands are facing challenges, with many having 1,000 to 3,000 stores at risk of decline [2] - The tea beverage industry is entering a phase of value competition, focusing on differentiation and brand premium, while the coffee industry will focus on scale competition [2] Group 3: Regional Brands - Despite the rise of large chain brands, many local brands maintain market space through unique regional flavors and emotional connections [4] - Local brands like Momo Nanlu leverage local fruit and culture to create differentiated products, gaining consumer trust and recognition [5] - The vast and diverse Chinese market provides a "thousand faces" opportunity for new tea brands, emphasizing the importance of local insights for differentiation [5] Group 4: Future Projections - Zhu Yonghua anticipates that the coffee market could reach a scale of 600 billion yuan, with potential price normalization expected in the next quarter or by next year [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an OUTPERFORM rating for Chagee Holdings, with a current price of US$15.90 and a target price of US$19.10, indicating a potential upside of approximately 20% [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing short-term pressure in the domestic market, with a revenue decline of 9% year-on-year in Q3, while overseas growth is gaining momentum, particularly with a 75% increase in overseas GMV [3][4][15]. - The company plans to implement a high-quality development strategy in 2026, focusing on expanding operating hours and enhancing profitability despite anticipated pressures from the direct sales business [5][6][15]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 12.4 billion, with a growth rate of 167% year-on-year, followed by RMB 13.3 billion in 2025, representing a 7% increase [11][15]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 2.22 billion, down 12% from the previous year, with a net profit margin of 16.7% [11][15]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 53.7% in 2025, up from 49.6% in 2024, driven by an increase in the proportion of revenue from company-owned stores [5][11]. Market and Operational Insights - The company opened 246 new stores in Q3, with a total of 7,076 stores, reflecting a 24% year-on-year increase in store count [4][5]. - The average monthly GMV per store in Greater China decreased by 28% year-on-year to RMB 379,000, while overseas stores reported an average monthly GMV of RMB 426,000, down 6% year-on-year [4][13]. - The company has entered new markets, including Vietnam and the Philippines, expanding its international footprint [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK) [1][2]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing business optimization driven by product innovation, with visible results from recent reforms [1][4]. - The current share price is HK$6.72, with a target price set at HK$9.30, indicating a potential upside [2]. - The company has a market capitalization of HK$9.93 billion (approximately US$1.28 billion) and has seen a significant decline in stock price over the past year [2][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are Rmb 55.9 billion, 60.0 billion, and 65.5 billion respectively, with net profit estimates of Rmb 8.4 billion, 9.5 billion, and 10.8 billion [5]. - The company reported a revenue of Rmb 4.918 billion in 2024, with a 14% year-on-year decline, but is expected to recover with a 14% growth in 2025 [5][21]. - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 31.2% in 2024 to 33.1% by 2027 [5]. Business Model and Market Position - Sichuan Baicha Baidao is recognized as the third-largest ready-to-drink tea brand in China, holding an 8% market share based on GMV in 2023 [3][7]. - The company has expanded its store count to 8,465 globally, with 8,444 stores in China and 21 overseas [3][7]. - The brand has shifted its focus from supply-driven to demand-driven product development, significantly increasing the number of new product launches [4][13]. Strategic Adjustments - The company has implemented a dual-team approach in R&D to enhance product innovation, resulting in 55 new products launched in the first half of 2025 [4][27]. - Marketing strategies have transitioned from passive to proactive, with increased advertising expenditures leading to higher brand visibility [4][30]. - Operational adjustments include optimizing the franchise system and enhancing supply chain capabilities, which have contributed to improved store performance [4][51]. Market Trends - The ready-to-drink beverage industry in China is entering an adjustment phase after years of rapid growth, with major brands focusing on internal improvements and exploring new product categories [14][19]. - The mid-priced beverage segment is particularly competitive, with a significant market share and a growing number of brands emerging [19]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from regulatory changes that promote industry standardization and compliance, potentially increasing its market share [5]. - Plans to introduce new product categories, such as coffee, are underway to further enhance sales performance [50].

Group 1 - The beverage industry is witnessing new IPO rumors, particularly for the new tea brand Cha Yan Yue Se and the coffee chain MANNER, both planning to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1][2] - MANNER, backed by ByteDance, is considering an IPO as early as 2026, aiming to raise several hundred million dollars with a potential valuation of up to $3 billion [1] - MANNER has expanded from Shanghai to 12 cities, with approximately 2,234 direct-operated stores expected by November 2025 [1] Group 2 - Cha Yan Yue Se, previously planning to list on NASDAQ, is now considering a shift to the Hong Kong market, engaging with investment banks for its IPO discussions [2] - Despite multiple rumors regarding its IPO, Cha Yan Yue Se has stated that there are currently no plans for an IPO [2] - The company has over 1,200 self-operated stores in regions like Hunan, Hubei, Chongqing, and Jiangsu, and is launching a new coffee sub-brand "Cha Yan Coffee" to cater to all-day consumer needs [3]

国研网报告显示，现制咖啡赛道预计到2025年市场规模将接近1300亿元。市场仍在增长，但对于具体品 牌来说境遇各有不同。伴随着头部茶饮品牌加码咖啡线、低价连锁加速开店、外卖平台补贴大战此起彼 伏，作为国内连锁咖啡品牌第一的瑞幸，同样面临行业竞争压力。 今年的咖啡市场正在经历剧烈洗牌。 《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称"每经记者"）注意到，年初古茗等茶饮品牌低价布局下沉咖啡市场， 暑期库迪咖啡借外卖补贴获得喘息机会，10月底星巴克中国出售60%股权并推出"县城计划"加码下沉市 场，这些市场行为均加剧了咖啡市场的竞争态势。 图片来源：每经记者 张建 摄 11月17日晚间，瑞幸发布2025年第三季度财报，其报告期内营收同比增长50.2%至152.9亿元。值得一提 的是，虽然瑞幸的规模仍在快速增长，但这一财季却出现了"增收不增利"的情况。 首先，瑞幸仍以高速扩店、扩大规模为核心策略。从财报来看，第三季度，瑞幸的门店达到29214家， 月均交易用户破1.12亿，这种网络密度带来的覆盖与履约优势是其最重要的护城河，也是推动营收增长 的核心动力。 更值得关注的是，瑞幸联营门店所贡献的营收，在瑞幸的收入结构中愈发关键。 截至2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue growth in Q3, driven by an expanding store network and increased consumer demand in the coffee market, with a total net revenue of RMB 15.287 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50.2% [1][12]. Financial Performance - Total net revenue for Q3 reached RMB 15.287 billion, up 50.2% year-on-year [12]. - GAAP operating profit was RMB 1.777 billion, reflecting a 12.9% increase [12]. - Same-store sales grew by 14.4%, a significant improvement from a decline of 13.1% in the same period last year [1]. - The company achieved a monthly average of over 100 million transacting customers, with a total of 420 million customers by the end of Q3 [12]. Store Expansion - The company opened 3,008 new stores in Q3, bringing the total number of stores to 29,214 [3][12]. - In China, 2,979 new stores were added, with a total of 29,096 stores, including over 10,287 franchise stores [3][6]. - The international market saw a net addition of 29 stores, totaling 118, with significant growth in Singapore and the U.S. [6][8]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its store network to enhance delivery capabilities and meet growing consumer demand, particularly in high-tier cities and lower-tier markets [3][6]. - The CEO emphasized the importance of maintaining a strong digital operation and understanding customer preferences to drive long-term growth [17]. Competitive Landscape - The coffee industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, driven by increased consumer demand and significant subsidies from delivery platforms [9][11]. - The CEO noted that while the rise in delivery orders has impacted profit margins, it is a temporary phase in the industry's development [9][11]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates challenges in same-store growth due to fluctuating market conditions and high international coffee bean prices [17]. - The focus will remain on long-term strategic development, product innovation, and enhancing customer service to capture market opportunities [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the active international expansion of Chinese companies, particularly from Henan province, showcasing their efforts in embracing globalization and enhancing their global presence through various strategies and innovations [7][11][18]. Group 1: Company Expansion Stories - Thinking of international markets, companies like SiNian Foods have successfully entered overseas markets, with their products now available in 149 Sam's Club locations across 15 states in the U.S. by 2025 [8][9]. - The beverage brand Mixue has opened over 53,000 stores globally, with more than 4,700 located overseas, significantly impacting the global beverage market [9]. - Weihu Group has expanded its international footprint, exporting products to over 170 countries and regions, with a focus on internationalization, digitalization, and green development [9][10]. Group 2: Economic Trends and Data - In the first ten months of the year, Henan province exported machinery and electrical products worth 317.23 billion yuan, a 28.6% increase, accounting for 65% of the province's total exports [11]. - The export of "new three types" products reached 23.35 billion yuan, with electric vehicle exports alone growing by 254.4% [11]. - The number of companies in Henan with import and export achievements increased by 3,600 from 2020, with a target of adding over 1,000 more in the current year [17]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - Companies are increasingly focusing on supply chain management to support their overseas operations, as seen with Mixue establishing localized warehousing and distribution networks in four countries [12]. - The shift from merely exporting products to exporting entire ecosystems, such as the complete set of equipment for tunnel construction, marks a significant evolution in export strategies [12]. - The emphasis on strategic planning, brand empowerment, and compliance reflects the growing strength and scale of Henan enterprises in the global market [18].

Group 1: JD's New Initiatives - JD has launched a new ready-to-drink beverage brand called "Qixian Coffee," which uses fresh milk and aims to expand rapidly in Beijing, opening 3 to 5 new stores weekly, with plans to cover major urban areas by the end of the year [1] - JD's independent delivery app will enhance its market share in the instant delivery sector, while the introduction of JD Review and JD True List aims to increase user engagement and platform transparency, reflecting JD's long-term strategy in the local lifestyle market [2] Group 2: Pet Food Market Adjustments - The founder of Hema, Hou Yi, announced the closure of several physical stores for the pet food brand "Paitexiansheng," citing a significant gap between operational results and initial entrepreneurial goals, with plans to focus on online business instead [3] - The competitive landscape in the pet food market poses challenges for physical store operations, and this strategic shift will allow for resource optimization and improved operational efficiency [3]

编辑丨钉钉 11月17日，京东集团创始人刘强东宣布京东正式推出旗下现制饮品品牌"七鲜咖啡"，称"只用鲜奶"， 并面向全国招募合作商。 目前，七鲜咖啡已在北京落地，正以每周新开3至5家门店的速度拓展，预计在今年年底覆盖北京主要 城区。 记者｜ 陆涵之 ...