行 业 及 产 业 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 高端酒批价回落 关注需求承接 食品饮料 2025 年 12 月 06 日 相关研究 《茅台股东会传递务实信号 月度金股推荐 泸州老窖 ——食品饮料行业周报 20251124-20251128》 2025/11/30 《市场大幅调整 板块相对跑赢 ——食品 饮料行业周报 20251117-20251121》 2025/11/22 《黎明前夕，曙光将至——2026 年食品 ⚫ 风险提示：食品安全问题，经济下行影响白酒及大众品需求。 证 券 研 究 报 看好 ——食品饮料行业周报 20251201-20251205 本期投资提示： 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(res ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [4][32]. Core Viewpoints - The frozen food industry is expected to see demand recovery, with product innovation playing a crucial role in overcoming challenges [6][29]. - The revenue from the downstream catering sector is anticipated to maintain a recovery trend in 2026, while profit margins are expected to gradually improve due to cost control and product innovation [6][29]. - The market size of China's frozen food sector is projected to reach 213.1 billion by 2025, up from 168.8 billion at the end of 2022 [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The frozen food industry faced a slowdown in growth during the first three quarters of 2025 due to fluctuations in catering demand and other adverse factors, but signs of recovery were noted in Q4 [6][29]. - The total market value of the industry is approximately 45,795.07 billion [1]. Market Trends - The national catering revenue from January to October 2025 reached 46,188 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [7]. - The chain rate in the catering industry is expected to rise to 25% in 2025, indicating significant room for growth compared to the U.S. and Japan [8]. Product Performance - In the first half of 2025, the frozen food category in supermarkets grew by 5%, contrasting with a decline of 9.5% in the same period last year [9]. - There is a structural shift in the market, with traditional staple categories under pressure while snack categories like pizza and frozen dim sum show strong growth potential [9]. Channel Development - The frozen food companies are actively responding to the demand from large chain supermarkets, leading to an increase in sales through these channels [15]. - New retail channels are also showing significant growth, contributing to the overall performance of the industry [15]. Cost and Profitability - The prices of most food raw materials have decreased, alleviating some cost pressures for frozen food companies, although packaging costs remain high [21]. - The combined revenue growth of key companies in the frozen food sector was 3.0% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable acceleration in Q3 [29]. Company-Specific Insights - Anjiu Foods is expected to benefit from the gradual recovery in catering and the continuous expansion of new customers, leading to a potential increase in profitability [31]. - Qianwei Yangchu is focusing on product innovation and expanding its market presence through both B2B and B2C channels, indicating strong long-term growth potential [31]. - Lihai Foods is actively developing new products and strengthening partnerships with key clients, positioning itself well for future growth in the baking sector [31].

Core Viewpoint - Anjiu Food has appointed two co-chairmen, becoming the first A-share listed company with three chairmen, reflecting a unique governance structure aimed at balancing power and preparing for future leadership transitions [2][4]. Group 1: Company Governance - The recent shareholder meeting approved the appointment of Zhang Qingmiao and the original actual controller Zhang Gaolu as co-chairmen alongside the existing chairman Liu Mingming [4]. - The appointment of three chairmen is seen as a strategy to balance relationships among stakeholders following the transfer of control [4][6]. - The current largest shareholder, Guoli Minsheng, holds 22% of the shares, while Liu Mingming, the third-largest shareholder, has only 3.69% [6][9]. Group 2: Historical Context and Market Position - Anjiu Food was founded in 2001 by Liu Mingming and Guoli Minsheng, capitalizing on the underdeveloped frozen food market in China [11][13]. - The company initially focused on fish products, avoiding competition in the saturated noodle market, and later shifted its strategy to emphasize hot pot ingredients, which proved successful [13][15]. - Anjiu's market position improved significantly from 2008 to 2015, becoming a key supplier for major hot pot chains, while competitors like Sanquan and Haixin struggled [15]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In 2024, Anjiu reported record revenue of 15.1 billion yuan, but profit growth slowed dramatically from 34% in 2023 to just 0.46% [17]. - Historical data shows that Anjiu has maintained double-digit profit growth in most years since its IPO, with the only decline occurring in 2015 [17][16].

Core Viewpoint - Anjuke Foods (603345) has reported that its shrimp product line has become the strongest growth driver among all new products, achieving high double-digit growth and exceeding expectations, with a continued outlook for rapid growth [1] Product Innovation - The company launched a 100-gram innovative packaging for shrimp products, including large shrimp slices and black tiger shrimp slices, expanding consumption scenarios compared to the previous 150-gram triangular packaging [1] Market Expansion - Shrimp products have become a key entry point for the company to expand its distribution channels, with recent collaborations, such as the partnership with Pandonglai, featuring five shrimp-related products [1] - The company has also entered the Sam's Club channel with the black tiger shrimp slices [1] R&D Focus - The company plans to continue strengthening its research and development efforts around shrimp as a key raw material [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the stock price of Haixin Food is attributed to its entry into the high-end Sam's Club supermarket chain, which has significantly boosted its market visibility and investor interest [4][33]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Haixin Food experienced six consecutive trading days of price increases, achieving six limit-ups from November 26 to December 3, 2025 [2][28]. - The stock's rapid rise has drawn attention from institutional investors, leading to a research meeting with China International Capital Corporation (CICC) on December 2, 2025 [34]. Group 2: Business Developments - Haixin Food successfully entered the Sam's Club supply chain, which is known for its stringent quality requirements, enhancing the brand's reputation and pricing power [6][34]. - The company reported a revenue of 970 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 15.05%, and a net loss of 28.18 million yuan, down 17.94% year-on-year [12][38]. Group 3: Market Context - Sam's Club, a subsidiary of Walmart, has been expanding rapidly in China, with expectations to exceed 1.3 billion yuan in sales for 2025, significantly contributing to the overall performance of its suppliers [4][31]. - The membership base of Sam's Club in China has reached nearly 9 million, with a high retention rate of over 90%, indicating strong consumer loyalty and purchasing power [5][31]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The frozen food sector in China is highly competitive, with several players including Anjuke Food, Sanquan Food, and others, but Anjuke Food leads the market with a 6.6% share and revenue of 15.127 billion yuan in 2024 [40][41]. - Haixin Food's stock performance has been volatile, with a significant decline in value over the past few years, including a 30% drop in 2024 [20][47].

12月4日，安井食品发布投资者调研记录表。当中披露，关于"除烘焙业务外，公司在品类扩张上还有哪 些其他规划？"提问，安井食品表示，公司初步筹划开拓清真食品这一广阔市场。为此，公司已收购并 计划启用"安斋"品牌，该品牌名称兼具清真属性和与"安井"的关联性。全球清真食品市场规模巨大，公 司相关产品此前在小范围试销中已获得良好市场反馈，验证了产品潜力。基于公司以往的团队经营能 力、渠道能力及新品研发能力，公司有信心能在该品类上取的较好的增长。 此外，围绕"公司后续推出的锁鲜装6.0产品与原有锁鲜装系列有哪些差异化？在锁鲜装产品上的后续规 划是什么？"问题，安井食品还称，公司锁鲜装6.0计划于今年12月推出，与原有系列相比，本次升级主 要体现在产品形态与应用场景的拓展。四款新产品中三款采用棒状或条状设计，不仅可用于传统火锅场 景，也能方便地改刀用于炒菜等多元烹饪方式，更好地满足了当下小型家庭与精致化饮食的需求，标志 着该系列从单一的火锅配料向更日常、更多元的消费场景延伸。展望后续规划，公司将继续推动锁鲜装 系列向健康化方向发展。未来的迭代版本将重点聚焦低GI、低热量等趋势。在推出节奏上，公司采取 审慎策略。今年底推出 ...

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 安井食品集团股份有限公司于2025年9月30日、2025年11月28日分别召开第五届董事会第二十二次会议 及2025年第一次临时股东会，审议通过了《关于变更公司非公开发行股票部分募投项目的议案》。同意 变更募投项目"四川安井技术升级改造项目"、"辽宁安井技术升级改造项目"、"泰州安井技术升级改造 项目"尚未投入使用的募集资金合计18,100.00万元及"河南三期年产14 万吨速冻食品扩建项目"尚未投入 使用的部分募集资金18,041.00万元，合计变更36,141.00万元用于"鼎益丰食品（太仓）有限公司新建烘 焙面包项目"。 现根据上述募投项目规划，对鼎益丰食品（太仓）有限公司（以下简称"鼎益丰"）注册资本增资至 41,000万元。同时，为强化主体责任，细化内部管理，变更鼎益丰法定代表人、执行董事、总经理为江 恒先生。鼎益丰已于近日完成工商变更登记手续，并取得住所地市场监督管理局换发的《营业执照》， 相关信息如下： 1. 名称：鼎益丰食品（太仓）有限公司 2. 统一社会信用代码 ...

Group 1: Snack Food Industry - Qiaqia Food achieved steady revenue growth in October, but nut category volume contracted in November due to the timing of the Spring Festival, while the sunflower seed category continued to grow. The main focus for future product development will be on nuts, including single nuts and flavored nuts, with increased promotion and distribution efforts. New products in the pipeline include konjac, peanut fruit, potato chips, and nut milk, indicating a stronger push for category expansion compared to the past [4] - Ximai Food's sales performance in Q4 2025 is strong, continuing the trend from the previous three quarters. The company aims to maintain steady revenue growth in its oatmeal business for 2026, with new health products expected to contribute additional revenue. The online sales of new health products launched in late November are performing well, and the company plans to continue channel expansion [4] - Wancheng Group is focusing on improving store quality while controlling the speed of new store openings. The performance of same-store sales has improved compared to H1 2025, and the company plans to accelerate store openings in 2026. The company is also experimenting with new product categories in different city tiers, including short shelf-life products and daily necessities [4] Group 2: Food Supply Chain - Anjijia Food reports continued improvement in operations, with reduced price competition in the frozen food industry. The company has seen improved downstream restaurant demand and has maintained low promotional efforts, resulting in lower inventory levels among distributors. The focus has shifted from channel-driven to new product-driven strategies, with notable sales growth in new products like shrimp slices [5][6] - The company is also expanding into frozen baking and halal food sectors, indicating a diversification of its product offerings. The channel strategy has evolved from fully embracing customization to a more controlled approach, enhancing operational efficiency [6]

Core Viewpoint - Anjiu Food has announced a capital increase for its wholly-owned subsidiary Dingyifeng Food (Taicang) Co., Ltd. to 410 million yuan, following a decision to change the use of previously raised funds for various projects to a new baking project [1] Group 1: Company Announcement - Anjiu Food's subsidiary Dingyifeng has completed the industrial and commercial change registration [1] - The registered capital of Dingyifeng has been increased to 410 million yuan, with Jiang Heng as the new legal representative [1] Group 2: Fund Allocation Changes - The decision to change the use of funds was made during board meetings held on September 30 and November 28, 2025 [1] - Approximately 36.1 million yuan of unused funds from various projects will be redirected to the new baking project at Dingyifeng [1] - The funds include 18.1 million yuan from the Sichuan, Liaoning, and Taizhou technology upgrade projects, and 18 million yuan from the Henan expansion project [1]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Quantitative Market Trend Judgment Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to address the systematic rotation of market styles by identifying the dominant asset characteristics that represent the future mainstream market style. It evaluates assets based on the priority of "g > ROE > D" to determine whether there are good assets and whether they are overvalued[5][8][12] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define five style stages based on the industry lifecycle: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value[8] 2. Use the "g > ROE > D" priority to compare assets, focusing on growth (g), profitability (ROE), and dividend yield (D)[5][8] 3. Incorporate factors such as expected growth (gf), actual growth (g), profitability (ROE), and valuation metrics (PB, DP, BP) to classify and evaluate assets[9][12] 4. Apply the framework to select industries and allocate them equally within each strategy[19] - **Model Evaluation**: The framework has demonstrated strong explanatory power for A-share market style rotation since 2009, achieving an annualized return of 27.06%[19] --- Model Backtesting Results Quantitative Market Trend Judgment Framework - **Annualized Return**: 27.06% since 2009[19] - **Excess Returns by Year**: - 2017: 27% - 2020: 44% - 2022: 62% - 2024: 52% - 2025 (YTD): 8%[22] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Expected Growth (gf) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the expected growth rate of industries based on analysts' forecasts, regardless of the lifecycle stage[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the expected growth rate (gf) for each industry 2. Rank industries based on the highest expected growth rates 3. Select top-performing industries for allocation[9][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns since 2019, with notable performance in 2014-2015 and 2025[38] 2. Factor Name: Actual Growth (g) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on industries with the highest earnings momentum (△g), particularly during transition and growth phases[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use △g to represent earnings momentum 2. Rank industries based on △g and select the top-performing ones 3. Incorporate additional factors such as SUE, SUR, and JOR for refinement[40] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has consistently delivered significant excess returns, especially in growth-dominant environments[40] 3. Factor Name: Profitability (ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Targets industries with high ROE and low valuation under the PB-ROE framework, focusing on mature stages[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate PB-ROE residuals for each industry 2. Rank industries based on residuals and select the top-performing ones[43] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor performed strongly from 2016 to 2020 but has weakened since 2021[43] 4. Factor Name: Quality Dividend (DP + ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines dividend yield (DP) and ROE to identify industries with the highest scores, focusing on mature stages[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate DP and ROE for each industry 2. Combine the two metrics into a composite score 3. Rank industries and select the top-performing ones[46] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2016, 2017, and 2023[46] 5. Factor Name: Value Dividend (DP + BP) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines dividend yield (DP) and book-to-price ratio (BP) to identify undervalued industries, focusing on mature stages[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate DP and BP for each industry 2. Combine the two metrics into a composite score 3. Rank industries and select the top-performing ones[49] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has delivered significant excess returns in 2009, 2017, and 2021-2023[49] 6. Factor Name: Bankruptcy Value (PB + SIZE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Targets industries with the lowest PB and SIZE scores, focusing on stagnation and recession stages[9] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate PB and SIZE for each industry 2. Combine the two metrics into a composite score 3. Rank industries and select the lowest-scoring ones[52] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2015-2016 and 2021-2023[52] --- Factor Backtesting Results Expected Growth (gf) - **Recent Performance**: - Lithium: +51.15% (3 months) - Frozen Food: +14.08% (3 months)[38] Actual Growth (g) - **Recent Performance**: - Lithium Chemicals: +51.88% (3 months) - Other Home Appliances: +14.93% (3 months)[41] Profitability (ROE) - **Recent Performance**: - Network Equipment: +12.18% (3 months) - Buses: +10.46% (3 months)[43] Quality Dividend (DP + ROE) - **Recent Performance**: - Timber Processing: +145.24% (3 months) - Lithium Equipment: +21.95% (3 months)[46] Value Dividend (DP + BP) - **Recent Performance**: - Network Equipment: +12.18% (3 months) - Security: -2.24% (3 months)[49] Bankruptcy Value (PB + SIZE) - **Recent Performance**: - Gas: +15.88% (3 months) - Building Renovation: +16.42% (3 months)[52]