Core Viewpoint - Haixin Food's stock price has increased by 6.69% on November 5, reaching 5.26 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 80.63 million CNY and a turnover rate of 3.47%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 2.923 billion CNY. The stock has risen for four consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 4.23% during this period [1]. Company Overview - Haixin Food Co., Ltd. is located in Fuzhou, Fujian Province, and was established on April 22, 2005. The company was listed on October 11, 2012. Its main business involves the research, production, and sales of frozen food, primarily frozen fish paste products and frozen meat products [1]. - The revenue composition of Haixin Food is as follows: frozen fish and meat products account for 60.76%, frozen dishes 25.32%, ambient snacks 11.47%, frozen rice and flour products 1.36%, and others 1.10% [1]. Shareholder Information - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Haixin Food, a fund under Jinyuan Shun'an Fund has increased its holdings. The Jinyuan Shun'an Yuanqi Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund (004685) added 202,800 shares in the third quarter, bringing its total holdings to 3.1028 million shares, which represents 0.68% of the circulating shares. The estimated floating profit today is approximately 1.0239 million CNY, with a floating profit of 620,600 CNY during the four-day increase [2]. - The Jinyuan Shun'an Yuanqi Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund (004685) was established on November 14, 2017, with a current scale of 1.432 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are 40.31%, ranking 1602 out of 8150 in its category; the one-year return is 45.6%, ranking 1018 out of 8043; and since inception, the return is 555.28% [2]. - The fund manager, Miao Weibin, has a tenure of 8 years and 327 days, with a total fund asset scale of 1.432 billion CNY. The best fund return during his tenure is 549.2%, while the worst is -28.79% [2].

Macro Strategy - The core view is that actual interest rates remain the key anchor for gold prices, with fluctuations in actual rates dominating the market dynamics for gold [1][22] - In October, gold prices experienced a "rise first, then fall" pattern, influenced by U.S. government shutdown concerns and subsequent economic data recovery [1][22] - The outlook for November suggests that gold prices will be driven by geopolitical situations, trade negotiations, and macro policies, with a potential for continued high-level fluctuations [1][22] Fixed Income Strategy - The report discusses a trading strategy of "long old bonds and short new bonds" based on the behavior of active bond spreads during the cutting process [2][23] - The active bond spread is expected to remain profitable, with the maximum spread observed at 9.8 basis points since the switch in 2023 [2][23] - The next active bond switch is anticipated around early January 2026, providing an opportunity to leverage the characteristics of active bond spreads for trading [2][23] Retail Industry - Baima Tea, a leader in the high-end tea market, has recently listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on high-quality tea products and targeting younger consumers [4][26] - The company's revenue growth has been accompanied by a decline in profit margins, with a slight decrease in gross and net profit margins reported [4][26] - The online sales channel is increasingly significant, with its contribution to total revenue rising from 19% in 2020 to 35% in the first half of 2025 [4][26] Food and Beverage Industry - The report highlights a divergence in growth within the snack sector, with leading companies showing more sustainable growth due to channel changes and consumer shifts [5][27] - Companies like Salted Fish and Wei Long are recommended for their strong channel layouts and significant contributions from key products [5][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous growth and valuation switching certainty in investment recommendations, particularly for companies like Ba Bi Food and Guo Quan [5][27]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Views - The food and beverage industry is experiencing differentiated growth, with certain segments showing strong potential for recovery [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous growth and valuation switching for investment decisions [1] Summary by Sections 1. Snack Foods - The snack food sector showed a leading growth rate in Q3 2025, with three companies (Wancheng Group, Youyou Food, and Ximai Food) achieving over 15% year-on-year revenue growth [11][13] - Most companies improved their profitability in Q3 2025, with Wancheng Group benefiting from scale effects and the recovery of minority shareholder rights [28] - Investment recommendations include Wancheng Group, Youyou Food, Ximai Food, and others, focusing on companies with strong brand power and product innovation capabilities [32] 2. Frozen Foods - The frozen food sector is witnessing a recovery in net profit margins, with major players like Lihai Food and Baoli Food maintaining strong year-on-year growth [33] - Companies are shifting from price competition to product innovation and customized demand to align with current consumer trends [55] - Recommended investments include leading companies like Anji Food and Lihai Food, with a focus on their stable market positions and growth potential [55] 3. Chain Dining Industry - The chain dining sector is showing signs of recovery, with companies like Baba Food and Guoquan demonstrating improved performance [62] - The report highlights the positive trend in single-store revenue for Baba Food and Guoquan, indicating a recovery in the dining chain segment [62] - Profitability improvements are noted for Baba Food and Huashanghuan, driven by cost reductions and enhanced capacity utilization [68]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is experiencing downward pressure, with notable declines in popular stocks such as Dongpeng Beverage, Wuliangye, Haitian Flavoring, and Kweichow Moutai, leading to a 1.04% drop in the food and beverage ETF for the half-day session [1] - In Q3 2025, the beverage industry showed strong performance with revenue and net profit growth of 16.3% and 30.8% year-on-year, respectively, benefiting from lower raw material prices that offset the impact of price wars in the ready-to-drink category [1] - The frozen food sector is in a mild recovery phase, achieving a net profit growth of 13.5% through refined cost control amid a less competitive environment, indicating a steady improvement in profitability [1] Group 2 - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that the liquor sector faced pressure on both volume and price due to tightening regulations on public consumption and business banquets, but has shown signs of improvement since Q3, with Kweichow Moutai stabilizing sales and benefiting from rigid demand in the wedding and family banquet segments [1] - Major liquor companies are stabilizing prices and markets while innovating products and channels to meet new demands, suggesting that the peak pressure on liquor sales has passed, with expectations for demand recovery in the future [1] - The long-term growth drivers for the food and beverage sector are clear, with consumption upgrades, product innovation, and channel transformation forming the core growth dynamics of the industry [2]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the emergence of Henan as a significant player in China's food supply chain, transforming it into a vital hub for food production and distribution, often referred to as the "kitchen of the nation" [1][17] - Henan's food supply chain is characterized by a comprehensive and efficient network that supports local brands and facilitates their growth on a national scale [1][8] Group 1: Key Players in Henan's Food Industry - Notable food brands from Henan, such as Sanquan, Si Nian, Shuanghui, and Baixiang, have successfully penetrated national markets, showcasing the effectiveness of the local supply chain [2][3] - Sanquan Foods, established in 1992, has become a leader in China's frozen food industry, leveraging Henan's agricultural resources and transportation networks for rapid expansion [2][3] - Si Nian Foods has developed a sustainable agricultural supply chain model, establishing order-based agricultural bases that enhance the quality and standardization of local produce [5][7] Group 2: Supply Chain Advantages - Henan's food industry benefits from a complete supply chain ecosystem, with over 7,800 small and medium-sized enterprises supporting the frozen food sector [3][10] - The region's population of 100 million provides a vast market and diverse consumer demands, contributing to the competitive edge of local brands like Sanquan [3][10] - The success of the acid-spicy noodle industry in Tongxu County exemplifies Henan's ability to create a full-cycle industrial ecosystem, integrating production, logistics, and retail [8][10] Group 3: Retail and Distribution Innovations - The local supermarket chain, Pang Dong Lai, exemplifies the integration of local agricultural production with retail, achieving significant cost reductions and quality control through direct sourcing [13][14] - Pang Dong Lai's collaboration with local suppliers has led to the development of customized products, enhancing its market position and supporting local businesses [14][16] - The establishment of logistics bases, such as the JD Logistics Supply Chain Base in Xuchang, further strengthens the efficiency of Henan's food supply chain [14][16] Group 4: Government Support and Infrastructure - The Henan provincial government prioritizes the development of the food industry, aiming to build a trillion-level modern food cluster by 2025 [16] - Continuous improvements in transportation infrastructure, including a comprehensive high-speed rail and highway network, facilitate efficient logistics and distribution [16][17] - The Zhengzhou Airport Economy Comprehensive Experimental Zone enhances the region's capability to export products nationally and internationally, supporting the growth of Henan's food supply chain [16][17]

Summary of Frozen Food Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The frozen food industry is gradually recovering after nearly two years of downturn, with leading companies significantly increasing their market share [1][12] - The industry is currently at a historical low valuation, approximately between 16 to 18 times earnings, with specific companies like Anjuke having even lower valuations and a dividend yield close to 5% [12] Key Companies and Developments Babi Food - Babi Food has shown improvement since July 2025, with new store performance exceeding expectations [1][4] - The company plans to open 20 new stores in the Shanghai and Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai regions by the end of 2025, aiming to accelerate store expansion by 2026 [1][4] - New store formats have significantly increased daily sales, with some locations achieving daily revenues of 19,000 to 20,000 yuan [4] Sanquan Food - Sanquan Food has faced significant revenue and profit pressures, particularly in its direct-to-consumer channels [5] - The company has adapted to the trend of customization in supermarkets, introducing a new management team and achieving over 50 million yuan in customized revenue in Q3 2025, with expectations for doubling in Q4 [5][6] - The B-end channel has maintained over 20% growth, while the small B channel is expected to recover in Q4 [5] Mountain Spring Food - Mountain Spring Food has innovated in its low-end product lines and introduced health-focused products in the tangyuan category, targeting younger consumers [7] - The company established a meat product division at the end of 2025, aiming to become the second-largest hot pot meat brand in the C-end market, with a goal of achieving billion-level single product sales [8] - The company has reduced online advertising costs, improving e-commerce profitability and expecting revenue to turn positive from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 [9][10] Anjuke Food - Anjuke Food's main business revenue has improved quarter-on-quarter, although its frozen prepared food segment saw a slight year-on-year decline of 0.5% [11] - Despite this, the company has gained market share compared to competitors, with stable performance in new and secondary products and a gross margin maintained at around 50% [11] - Expectations for Q4 include continued single-digit revenue growth, with potential profit pressure due to high cost and last year's base [11] Market Dynamics - The demand for frozen food has shown signs of recovery, particularly in the C-end market, following a decline in June due to external events [2] - The competitive landscape has stabilized, with less aggressive price wars compared to the previous year, allowing for improved promotional strategies [2][3] - The overall outlook for the frozen food industry is positive, with potential catalysts from policy changes or recovery in dining demand, which could lead to valuation recovery and improved revenue and profit [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the consumer staples sector in China is "Outperform" for multiple companies including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1]. Core Insights - In October 2025, five out of eight key consumer goods sectors maintained positive growth, while three sectors experienced negative growth. The sectors with single-digit growth included frozen foods, soft drinks, beer, condiments, and catering services. The declining sectors were mid-to-high-end and premium baijiu, mass-market and lower-tier baijiu, and dairy products. Despite the extended holiday period due to the overlap of National Day and Mid-Autumn festivals, consumer spending remained sluggish, with goods consumption growing by 3.9% and services consumption by 7.6% during the holiday [3][29]. Summary by Sector 1. Mid-to-High-End Baijiu - In October, the revenue for mid-to-high-end baijiu was 27.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 11.7%. Cumulative revenue from January to October was 325.2 billion yuan, down 5.6% year-on-year. The consumption structure is shifting downwards, with products priced between 100-300 yuan accounting for 60% of sales [4][12]. 2. Mass-Market and Lower-Tier Baijiu - The revenue for mass-market and lower-tier baijiu in October was 16.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.0%. Cumulative revenue from January to October was 162.1 billion yuan, down 9.1% year-on-year. The production of baijiu in September was 306,000 kiloliters, a year-on-year decline of 15.0% [5][14]. 3. Beer - The beer sector reported revenue of 10.3 billion yuan in October, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%. Cumulative revenue from January to October was 152.9 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year. The sector is experiencing a mild recovery, although regional performance varies significantly [6][16]. 4. Condiments - The revenue for the condiment sector in October was 37.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%. Cumulative revenue from January to October was 371.1 billion yuan, up 1.3% year-on-year. Demand from the catering sector is gradually recovering, but profitability remains under pressure [7][18]. 5. Dairy Products - The dairy sector's revenue in October was 36.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.2%. Cumulative revenue from January to October was 387.5 billion yuan, down 2.0% year-on-year. Demand remains under pressure, and inventory levels are high post-holiday [8][20]. 6. Frozen Foods - The frozen food sector reported revenue of 7.77 billion yuan in October, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. Cumulative revenue from January to October was 88.2 billion yuan, up 2.0% year-on-year. Demand is supported by catering recovery and stable growth in customized products [9][22]. 7. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector's revenue in October was 46.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. Cumulative revenue from January to October was 619.5 billion yuan, up 4.3% year-on-year. The competitive landscape has softened post-peak season [10][24]. 8. Catering - The catering sector reported revenue of 16.2 billion yuan in October, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. Cumulative revenue from January to October was 148.1 billion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year. The sector is showing signs of stabilization, benefiting from holiday demand [11][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Qianwei Yangchu [2][5] Core Views - Qianwei Yangchu's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1.378 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.00%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 54 million yuan, a decrease of 34.06% year-on-year [3] - The company is actively embracing new retail sales trends, leveraging its direct sales advantages in product development and customized production to enhance sales scale through partnerships with major retailers like Hema, Walmart, and Yonghui [4] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 21.18%, down 1.26 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to intensified competition in the small B-end market [5] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the total revenue was 492 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.27%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 18 million yuan, down 19.08% year-on-year [3] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 773.7 million, 900 million, and 1.007 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.80, 0.93, and 1.04 yuan [5] - The projected PE ratios for 2025-2027 are 51, 43, and 39 times, respectively [5] Company Overview - Qianwei Yangchu focuses on the research, production, and sales of frozen flour and rice products for the catering industry, with key products including fried dough sticks, sesame balls, egg tart skins, sweet potato balls, and cartoon buns [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [7][55]. Core Views - The liquor sector is experiencing a significant performance decline, with most companies entering a rapid clearing phase, except for Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, which still show slight growth. The impact of alcohol prohibition policies has led to a decrease in high-end and sub-high-end consumption, resulting in downward price adjustments and increased promotional activities, compressing profit margins across the industry. Despite these challenges, leading companies demonstrate strong risk resistance, with a consensus on inventory reduction and a focus on long-term value stocks such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [5][53][55]. Summary by Sections Industry News - Jiangsu Wine Association aims for revenue exceeding 100 billion yuan by 2030. Sales of liquor on e-commerce platforms have increased by over 50% since the start of the Double 11 shopping festival. Hebei province reported a more than 10% decline in liquor production from January to September [4][16]. Company News - Guizhou Moutai opened its first cultural experience center in Anhui. Wuliangye reported revenue of 60.945 billion yuan for the first nine months. Luzhou Laojiao launched a new zodiac wine for the Year of the Horse and achieved revenue of 23.127 billion yuan [4][17]. Liquor Sector Insights - The liquor industry is undergoing a significant adjustment, with a focus on inventory reduction and maintaining profitability. The report suggests monitoring high-dividend leaders and flexible stocks that have undergone prior adjustments [5][53]. Consumer Goods and New Consumption - The seasoning sector is under pressure due to restaurant demand but benefits from improved raw material costs. The frozen food sector is facing challenges due to weak demand in restaurants and baking, while the snack food sector is experiencing slower store opening speeds. The beverage sector remains strong, with new consumption opportunities emerging [6][54][55]. Key Company and Profit Forecasts - The report provides a detailed forecast for various companies, indicating a buy rating for several key players, including Luzhou Laojiao, Wuliangye, and Guizhou Moutai, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the coming years [9][56].

Summary of Industry and Company Insights from Conference Call Records Industry: Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) Key Points: - The overall performance of the baijiu industry in Q3 was under pressure, with most companies experiencing a decline in net profit, particularly those with significant revenue drops. [1][7] - Moutai maintained a stable performance with a 7% revenue increase, despite a drop in batch prices from 1,760 RMB to around 1,670 RMB, reflecting a more than 20% year-on-year decline. [1][10] - Wuliangye saw a significant revenue decline of 52% and a profit drop of 65%, indicating substantial pressure on its performance. [1][4] - Luzhou Laojiao performed better than expected, with effective strategies in place, although external environmental factors need to be monitored. [1][6] - The second-tier brand Fenjiu showed stable performance, with the Qinghua series growing by 9-10%, while Qinghua 30 experienced a decline of 20-30%. [1][5] - The overall baijiu sector is expected to continue adjustments in Q4 in preparation for the Spring Festival, which is a critical sales period. [1][8] Industry: Dairy Products Key Points: - The dairy sector faced weak terminal demand in Q3, with Yili's liquid milk revenue declining by 8.8%, while New Dairy achieved double-digit growth. [1][12] - The outlook for Q4 remains challenging, with expectations of continued pressure on liquid milk demand due to weak consumer confidence. [1][13] - New Dairy and Miaokelando are expected to maintain good growth through product innovation and market expansion. [1][13][14] Industry: Soft Drinks Key Points: - The soft drink industry showed stable performance in Q3, driven by strong travel demand and the introduction of new products. [1][15] - Dongpeng Beverage reported a 30.4% revenue increase, benefiting from new product launches, while competitors like Master Kong and Uni-President experienced revenue declines. [1][15][16] - Long-term growth prospects for Dongpeng and Nongfu Spring are viewed positively, while Master Kong and Uni-President are considered defensive dividend investment options. [1][18] Industry: Frozen Foods Key Points: - The frozen food sector is showing signs of stabilization, with demand not expected to worsen significantly. [1][20] - Leading companies are reducing expenditure, leading to some profit recovery, although growth rates remain modest. [1][20] - The industry is at a bottom turning point, with expectations for improvement in restaurant demand. [1][20] Industry: Snacks Key Points: - The snack sector saw slight revenue growth but at a slower pace, with rapid growth in bulk snack channels. [1][21] - New retail channels like Sam's Club are contributing significantly to revenue growth, despite some short-term impacts from public sentiment. [1][21] - The performance of key brands like Yanjin and Youyou has improved, indicating better operational efficiency and profitability. [1][25] Industry: Meat Products Key Points: - The meat product sector is considered a defensive dividend segment, with companies like Shuanghui Development and WH Group showing stable performance. [1][22] - Shuanghui's meat product sales remained steady, with a target of 30% growth in new channels for the upcoming year. [1][23] - WH Group's U.S. market performance was stable, with expectations for relatively stable pork prices in 2026. [1][24] Overall Market Performance Key Points: - The food and beverage sector has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a 5.5% decline as of October 31, 2025. [1][9] - The baijiu sector's valuation has decreased, with a forecasted P/E ratio of 18.9 times, lower than historical averages. [1][9] - Fund holdings in the baijiu sector have decreased, indicating potential for future capital inflow if demand improves. [1][9]