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弱美元、LME低库存和需求走弱交织,有色延续震荡
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 02:19
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究(有⾊每⽇报告) 2025-06-11 弱美元、LME低库存和需求走弱交织,有色 延续震荡 有⾊观点:弱美元、LME低库存和需求⾛弱交织,有⾊延续震荡 交易逻辑:5月中国财新制造业PMI和美国Markit制造业PMI走势偏 弱,同时,美元指数延续弱势;5月28日,美国联邦法院阻止了特朗 普4月2日宣布的关税政策,白宫上诉,整体来看,宏观面略偏正面, 但美国关税预期反复。供需面来看,基本金属供需有所趋松,锌锭表 现的较为明显,本周国内库存整体维持小幅累积。中短期来看,弱美 元、LME低库存和需求走弱交织,有色延续震荡,主要关注结构性机 会,谨慎关注关注铜铝锡短多机会,中长期来看,基本金属需求前景 仍存在不确定性,可关注部分供需偏过剩或者预期过剩品种的逢高沽 空机会。 杨飞 铜观点:美元指数偏弱,铜价⾼位运⾏。 氧化铝观点:现货成交活跃度下降,氧化铝盘⾯震荡。 铝观点:特朗普加码钢铝关税落地,铝价⾼位震荡。 铝合⾦观点:供需⽆突出⽭盾,铝合⾦窄幅波动。 锌观点:现货升⽔维持⾼位,短期锌价下⽅空间有限。 铅观点:成本⽀撑暂稳,铅价震荡运⾏。 镍观点:供需整 ...
瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20250605
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 09:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the nickel market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand. Technically, there is a rebound with reduced volume and positions, testing the MA10 resistance upwards, and it is expected to be in a volatile adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel was 121,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,020 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread was -210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [2]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel was 15,330 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 145 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel was 85,713 lots, an increase of 2,167 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai Nickel was -2,491 lots, a decrease of 3,037 lots; LME nickel inventory was 200,724 tons, a decrease of 900 tons [2]. - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange was 27,075 tons, an increase of 120 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME nickel totaled 29,046 tons, an increase of 684 tons [2]. - The warrant quantity of Shanghai Nickel was 22,251 tons, a decrease of 48 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price was 123,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 325 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous was 123,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 100 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price was 100 US dollars/ton [2]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 28,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract was 1,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 695 yuan [2]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium was -188.53 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12.05 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore was 291.41 million tons, an increase of 137.89 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore was 725.88 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons [2]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore was 78.86 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 32.99 US dollars; the含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni was 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of nickel iron was 2.17 million metal tons, a decrease of 0.11 million metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 18,746.54 tons, an increase of 10,187.11 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron was 81.69 million tons, a decrease of 19.64 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was -7.75 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 182.43 million tons, a decrease of 2.1 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - US President Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates. The US ADP employment in May increased by 37,000 people, lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 62,000. The recruitment speed in May reached the lowest level since March 2023 [2]. - The Fed's "Beige Book" showed that the US economic activity declined slightly, with enterprises and consumers facing increased policy uncertainty and rising price pressure, and the overall economic outlook was pessimistic [2]. - The China Passenger Car Association reported that the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in May were 1.24 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The cumulative wholesale from January to May was estimated to be 5.22 million, a year - on - year increase of 41% [2]. 3.7 Key Points of Concern Philippine government plans to implement a nickel ore export ban from June 2025, and the actual progress should be monitored [2].
广发期货《有色》日报-20250605
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 05:14
知识图强, 求实奉献, 客户至上, 合作共赢 | 产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月5日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解键 | 123425 | 122850 | 575 | 0.47% | 76/11/2 | | 1#金川镇 | 124575 | 124050 | ર્સ્ટ | 0.42% | 元/肥 | | 1#金川镇升贴水 | 2500 | 2550 | -50 | -1.96% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇 | 122425 | 121800 | 625 | 0.51% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇升贴水 | 350 | 300 | 50 | - | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | -201 | -203 | 2 | -1.21% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | -4760 | -3669 | ...
国泰君安期货所长早读-20250522
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 01:32
所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-05-22 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-05-22 所长 早读 外资机构纷纷看多中国股市 观点分享: 据证券日报报道,5 月 21 日,第 28 届瑞银亚洲投资论坛媒体分享会召开,瑞银全球金 融市场部中国主管房东明表示,当前,国际市场对中国资产关注度持续升温。一方面,流动 性向好趋势明显,这对提升投资者信心至关重要,量化基金及其他中长线海外投资者均积极 寻求深度参与中国资本市场。同时,中国监管部门也积极回应全球投资者关切点,提供切实 指导与帮助。另一方面,新质生产力领域吸引力愈发凸显,在人工智能、高端制造等产业链 推动下,中国股市叙事逻辑转变,叠加政策推动,全球投资者对中国资产中长短期关注度都 在不断提升;高盛最新报告显示,将 MSCI 中国指数和沪深 300 指数的 12 个月目标分别上 调至 84 点和 4600 点(分别有 11%和 17%的潜在上涨空间),维持对中国股票的超配评级; 摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强表示,中国拥有充足的应对冲击的回旋空间。原因有四 方面:一是国内政策刺激拥有加码空间;二是整体社会民生仍具有承 ...
国泰君安期货所长早读-20250519
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 02:21
所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-05-19 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 美通胀预期创新高,消费者信心创新低 观点分享: 周五公布的密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值 50.8,为史上第二低,不及预期的 53.4,4 月前值为 52.2。本次消费者信心的数值低于媒体调查的几乎所有经济学家的预测。从分项指 数看,现况指数初值 57.6,预期 59.6,前值 59.8;预期指数初值 46.5,接近 45 年来的最低 点,预期 48.2,前值 47.3。市场更为关注的通胀预期数据同样令人不安:5 月密歇根大学 1 年通胀预期初值 7.3%,为 1981 年以来的最高水平,预期 6.5%,前值 6.5%;5 年通胀预期 初值 4.6%,为 1991 年以来的最高,预期 4.4%,前值 4.4%。该数据大体在 2.9%-3.1%的窄 幅波动区间。2022 年 6 月美国通胀处于本轮峰值之际,该通胀预期初值一度达到 3.3%,创 下 2008 年以来的最高。最近几次调查的长期通胀预期已显著高于疫情后的峰值水平。尽管 近期硬数据报告显示美国通胀压力有限,但此次调查类的通胀预期数据仍值得高度关注 ...
国信期货有色(镍)周报:底部区间,震荡偏强-20250518
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-18 02:58
Report Title - "Bottom Range, Oscillating with an Upward Bias - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated May 18, 2025 [2][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, the two sides reached a series of important consensuses on tariff adjustments, and China's exports in April showed strong resilience. The Shanghai nickel market showed an oscillating trend this week. The spot trading of refined nickel was stable, the changes in premiums and discounts were small, the mine - end market changed little, the quotes of mines were firm, the price of nickel sulfate was weak, and the salt plants were in a loss state. After the holiday, stainless steel inventory increased, and the demand was mainly for rigid procurement. The demand has resilience, but whether it will improve in the medium and long term remains to be verified by further data. It is expected that the operating range of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is approximately 115,000 to 134,000 yuan/ton, and that of the main contract of stainless steel is approximately 12,700 to 13,500 yuan/ton [36] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part shows the historical price trend chart of the main contract of nickel futures from December 31, 2020, to April 30, 2025, with the price range from 0 to 300,000 yuan/ton [8] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - Displays the monthly import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines, with the data range from 0 to 6 million tons [13] 2.2 Mid - stream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - Presents the price trend chart of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) from 0 to 300,000 yuan/ton [16] 2.3 Mid - stream - Nickel Sulfate Price - Shows the average price trend chart of nickel sulfate in China, with the price range from 0 to 70,000 yuan/ton [18] 2.4 Mid - stream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - Displays the monthly import volume of ferronickel in China from 0 to 1 million tons and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from 0 to 1,800 yuan/nickel [20] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless Steel - **Price**: Displays the closing price trend chart of stainless steel futures (continuous), with the price range from 0 to 25,000 yuan/ton [22] - **Position**: Shows the position volume trend chart of stainless steel futures, with the position volume range from 0 to 400,000 lots [24] - **Inventory**: Displays the inventory trend chart of Wuxi stainless steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless steel, with the inventory range from 0 to 800,000 tons [26] 2.6 Downstream - Production of Power and Energy Storage Batteries - Shows the monthly production value trend chart of power and energy storage batteries (ternary materials) and the total monthly production value trend chart of power and energy storage batteries in China, with the production value range from 0 to 140,000 MWh [29] 2.7 Downstream - Production of New Energy Vehicles - Displays the monthly production value trend chart of new energy vehicles in China, with the production value range from 0 to 140,000 vehicles [31] 3. Outlook for the Future - After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, tariff adjustments were made. China's exports in April showed strong resilience. The Shanghai nickel market oscillated this week. The spot trading of refined nickel was stable, the mine - end market changed little, the price of nickel sulfate was weak, and stainless steel inventory increased after the holiday. It is expected that the operating range of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is approximately 115,000 to 134,000 yuan/ton, and that of the main contract of stainless steel is approximately 12,700 to 13,500 yuan/ton [36]
广发期货《有色》日报-20250514
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 11:10
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The copper market presents a combination of "strong current situation + weak expectation". The short - term price is likely to fluctuate. The main contract price is expected to range between 77,500 - 79,500 yuan/ton. The macro - level factors and the uncertainty of demand in the peak season are the main influencing factors [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the market is influenced by both positive and negative factors, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For electrolytic aluminum, the inventory reduction and the easing of tariff sentiment support the price, but the expected weakening of demand and the decline in cost put pressure on the price. The short - term price is likely to fluctuate [3]. Zinc - The short - term zinc price may be supported by the easing of tariff signals. In the future, the price may decline if terminal consumption is insufficient due to tariff policies, or maintain a high - level oscillation if the growth rate of the mining end is lower than expected and downstream consumption exceeds expectations. In the medium - to - long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended, with the main contract price reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - The macro - sentiment improvement may drive the tin price to rebound, but considering the supply - side restoration and the pessimistic demand expectation, short - selling can be attempted in the range of 265,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply - side raw material restoration rhythm [7]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price is expected to fluctuate. The macro - sentiment has improved, and the cost provides some support, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. The main contract price is expected to range between 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [8]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to fluctuate. The raw - material end provides some support, but the short - term supply - demand contradiction has intensified, and the inventory pressure has slightly eased. The main contract price is expected to range between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term lithium carbonate price is expected to show a weak oscillation. The supply pressure is obvious, the demand is relatively flat, and the inventory is still high. The main contract price is expected to range between 62,000 - 66,000 yuan/ton [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: Most copper prices decreased slightly, with SMM 1 electrolytic copper at 78,155 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 11.54% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads between some contracts changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32%, and the import volume in March increased by 15.24%. The domestic and overseas inventories showed different trends [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: Aluminum prices generally increased, with SMM A00 aluminum at 20,010 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. The import loss and the spreads between some contracts changed [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the alumina and electrolytic aluminum production changed. The开工 rates of some aluminum products also changed, and the inventories at home and abroad decreased [3]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: Zinc prices decreased slightly, with SMM 0 zinc ingot at 22,650 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The import loss increased, and the spreads between some contracts decreased [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the refined zinc production increased by 0.31%, and the import volume in March increased by 9.47%. The开工 rates of downstream industries increased [4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: Tin prices decreased slightly, with SMM 1 tin at 262,100 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The spreads between some contracts changed significantly [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In March, the tin ore import decreased, while the refined tin production and import increased. The inventories of some varieties decreased [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: Nickel prices decreased, with SMM 1 electrolytic nickel at 124,950 yuan/ton, down 1.79%. The import loss decreased, and the spreads between some contracts changed [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the Chinese refined nickel production increased by 6.08%, and the import volume decreased by 68.84%. The inventories at home and abroad changed [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: Stainless - steel prices were slightly adjusted, with the 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) at 13,200 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The spreads between some contracts changed [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the 300 - series stainless - steel production in China increased by 11.37%, and the export volume increased by 70.98%. The inventories changed [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: Lithium carbonate prices were mostly stable, with SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate at 64,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spreads between some contracts changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the lithium carbonate production decreased, while the demand increased. The inventory increased, and the开工 rate increased [14].
镍不锈钢早报:纯镍产量同比高增,过剩压力依旧存在-20250514
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 02:44
期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期: 2025 年 5 月 14 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_S 宏观&行业消息: ummary]【安泰科:2025 年 4 月中国镍产品产量通报】据统计,2025 年 4 月中国镍板产量 33120 吨,环比下降 2.1%,同比增加 6.9%。1-4 月中 国镍板产量 13 万吨,同比增加 13.02%。本月华中某镍企产量因原料供应 迟滞产量小幅下降,西北大型镍企产量环比提升。随着印尼某 MHP 项目复 产,原料供应有望逐渐增加,预计 5 月中国产量同环比增长。2025 年 4 月 中国硫酸镍产量 2.96 万吨(不含硫酸镍生产镍板用量约 1.2 万吨),环比 下降 12.9%,同比下降 17.8%。其中原生物料产量约 2.8 万吨,环比下降 11.4%,同比下降 13.2%。1-4 月中国硫酸镍产量 12.7 万吨,同比下降 1.63%。 (安泰科) 供应:从盘面表现来看,基本已经可以认为菲律宾禁矿传言被证伪,盘面 快速回吐全部涨幅,收盘价基本与前一日起涨点持平。回到基本面,菲律 宾走出雨季,发运量上升季的节性因素不易发生变化,矿端 ...
《有色》日报-20250514
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 01:06
| | 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年5月13日 | | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | | SMM 1#锡 | 262800 | 259600 | 3200 | 1.23% | | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 900 | 900 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | | 长江 1#锡 | 263300 | 260100 | 3200 | 1.23% | | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -43.01 | -158.07 | 115.06 | 72.79% | 美元/吨 | | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | | 进口盈亏 | -2373.05 | -9430.59 | 7057. ...
《有色》日报-20250512
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 06:12
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is bearish with weak fundamentals and high inventory. The price is expected to remain weak, with the main contract ranging from 62,000 to 66,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. - **Tin**: The supply side is expected to recover, while the demand outlook is pessimistic. The price may rebound due to macro - sentiment but is likely to be bearish in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the supply recovery rhythm [4]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment is temporarily stable, and the cost provides support, but the medium - term supply is abundant. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract ranging from 122,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is expanding, and the inventory pressure is slightly relieved. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 12,600 to 13,000 yuan/ton [6][7]. - **Zinc**: The supply side may become looser, and the demand is weak. The price may be supported in the short - term, but in the long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended. The main contract reference range is 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina price is expected to fluctuate, and the aluminum price is expected to be weak, with the support level at 18,000 - 18,500 yuan/ton [12]. - **Copper**: The copper market shows a "strong reality + weak expectation" pattern. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract focusing on the 77,500 - 78,500 yuan/ton pressure level [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 65,250 yuan/ton, while battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.23%. The basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) increased by 10,800% [1]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.99% to 259,600 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.06% to 124,825 yuan/ton [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) remained unchanged at 13,050 yuan/ton [6]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.35% to 22,770 yuan/ton [9]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.05% to 19,610 yuan/ton [12]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.29% to 78,205 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamentals - **Lithium Carbonate**: In April, lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65%, while demand increased by 3.02%. Inventory increased by 6.81% [1]. - **Tin**: In March, tin ore imports decreased by 4.83%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 8.75% [4]. - **Nickel**: In April, China's refined nickel products increased by 6.08%, and imports decreased by 68.84% [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 2.65%, and exports increased by 70.98% [6]. - **Zinc**: In April, refined zinc production increased by 0.31%, and the social inventory increased by 8.18% [9]. - **Aluminum**: In April, alumina production decreased by 6.17%, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91% [12]. - **Copper**: In April, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32%, and the domestic social inventory decreased by 7.33% [13].