"番茄协议"到期 美国商务部今年4月宣布，将于7月14日终止与墨西哥达成的"番茄协议"，此举将导致墨西哥出口到美国 的番茄被征收约17%的关税。 "番茄协议"到期 墨西哥总统辛鲍姆：墨西哥将于今天宣布有关番茄的计划。 "番茄协议"到期 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall trend of agricultural products shows that oilseeds and oils have weakened, while oils, agricultural by - products are in a volatile market. Soft commodity sugar continues to be weak, cotton rises moderately, and grains such as corn and starch are in a weak and narrow - range consolidation. The recommended strategy is to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures have different price trends, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2509) is 4,110, up 12 (0.29%), with a trading volume of 13.66 million lots and an open interest of 19.98 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: These indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.40, with a change of 0.03, and the open interest PCR is 0.49, with a change of 0.01 [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: Determined from the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,500, and the support level is 4,100 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: The weighted implied volatility of different agricultural products shows different trends. For example, the weighted implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 11.61%, with a change of 0.26% [6]. 3.3 Option Strategies for Different Products 3.3.1 Oilseeds and Oils - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: The USDA July report adjusted the supply - demand balance of US soybeans. The option strategies include constructing a bearish option bear - spread combination, selling a neutral call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean meal market has a weak recovery, and the option strategies include selling a bearish call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8][9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil market has changes in export and inventory. The option strategies include selling a bullish call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanut**: The peanut market has a weak downward trend. The option strategies include constructing a bearish option bear - spread combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.3.2 Agricultural By - products - **Pig**: The pig price has a recovery trend. The option strategies include selling a neutral call + put option combination and a covered call strategy for spot [11]. - **Egg**: The egg market is in a weak downward trend. The option strategies include constructing a bearish option bear - spread combination, selling a bearish call + put option combination [12]. - **Apple**: The apple market has a weak rebound. The option strategy is to sell a neutral call + put option combination [12]. - **Jujube**: The jujube market has a rebound and then a decline. The option strategies include selling a bearish wide - straddle option combination and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.3.3 Soft Commodities - **Sugar**: The sugar market has a super - bearish rebound. The option strategies include selling a neutral call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton market has a moderate upward trend. The option strategies include constructing a bullish option bull - spread combination, selling a neutral call + put option combination, and a covered call strategy for spot [14]. 3.3.4 Grains - **Corn and Starch**: The corn market is in a weak downward trend. The option strategies include constructing a bearish option bear - spread combination, selling a bearish call + put option combination [14].

期货盯盘神器专属文章 CBOT农产品晚间分析：夜盘美豆期货价格持续下挫，受到哪些因素影响？ 相关链接 ...

据巴西外交部 7 月 10 日公告，针对美国拟对巴西金属制品加征 50% 关税，巴西将等额反制美国大豆与玉米进口。 贸易（资料图） 巴西近年持续降低对美市场依赖。对美出口占比从 2018 年的 23% 降至 2024 年的 16%，对华大豆出口量三年增长 47%。金砖国家内部贸易额突破 1.8 万亿 美元，巴西与印度、南非的本币结算规模同比扩大 3 倍。中国外交部发言人在例行记者会上表示，反对任何形式的单边关税措施，贸易争端应通过多边机制 解决。中国与巴西的贸易额去年达 1875 亿美元，双方已实现人民币与雷亚尔直接兑换，结算效率提升 40%。 特朗普（资料图） 特朗普政府此次关税政策直指巴西前总统博索纳罗相关调查。美方声称巴西司法程序 "损害美国企业利益"，实则插手南美国家内政。博索纳罗任内与美国 在军事合作、资源开发领域绑定紧密，卢拉政府启动调查后，美方迅速以贸易手段施压。巴西总统卢拉在金砖国家峰会上的表态成为另一重诱因。他公开批 评 "某些国家用美元霸权收割全球"，呼吁新兴经济体加强本币结算合作。这番言论正值金砖国家扩容至 15 国，美国情报部门评估显示，该机制已对美元主 导的结算体系构成 "实质性挑战 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot prices are weakly adjusted, and futures are oscillating to build a bottom. The overall trading in the producing areas is light this week, with the transaction center moving down. New peanut planting area is expected to increase slightly, and the total output is expected to remain high. Spot prices are likely to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the long - term market depends on weather and demand. Futures prices are unlikely to decline significantly in the medium and short term and may enter a bottom - oscillating phase. Appropriate strategies include building a futures - options covered strategy and an insurance strategy for trend traders [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views - The overall trading in peanut producing areas is light, with the transaction center moving down. Some holders are more willing to sell, but downstream procurement is weak. New peanut planting area increases slightly, and the total output is expected to be high. Spot prices may oscillate weakly in the short term, and long - term market depends on weather and demand. Futures prices are unlikely to decline significantly in the medium and short term, suitable for building specific strategies [6]. 2. Market Review 2.1 This week - Peanut weighted index oscillates weakly and reaches the lower edge of the range, finding temporary support. The oilseed sector breaks through the upper edge of the range and then oscillates narrowly. In the short - term market, peanuts are stronger than oils [10]. 2.2 2510 Contract - The 10 - main contract rose to the upper edge of the range after falling below the lower edge last week. If the price continues to rise, the market may develop into an uptrend [14]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Oil Mill Inventory and Operating Rate - Peanut oil weekly inventory is 39,290 tons, a decrease of 120 tons from the previous month, and the oil mill operating rate is 4.21%, a decrease of about 0.53% from last week [17]. 3.2 Peanut Commodity Price (Baisha) - The transaction prices of Baisha peanuts in Henan and Northeast China are chaotic. Some low - quality sources have low quotes, while high - quality cold - stored sources are relatively resistant to price drops. The overall trading is light [20]. 3.3 Peanut Oil Price Trend - The average price of first - grade ordinary peanut oil in the main producing areas this week is 15,000 yuan/ton, basically the same as last week [22]. 3.4 Peanut Meal Price Trend - Peanut meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal prices maintain an oscillating pattern [26]. 3.5 Imported Peanut Quantity and Price - There are few imported peanuts. Sudanese refined peanuts are scarce, and no new peanuts have arrived at the port. Import prices are stable, and the procurement of Senegalese sources is limited [28]. 3.6 Market Price Index Compared with Last Month - In the wholesale market, peanut prices are mainly negotiated, and the overall transaction price is relatively stable [32]. 4. Spread Tracking 4.1 Basis Spread - Not elaborated in detail in the text, only a chart of peanut - Baisha basis is provided [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In H1 2025, the commodity market showed a narrow - range oscillation, with the CSI Commodity Futures Index rising slightly by 0.20%. Positive returns mainly came from gold, silver, and copper, while negative returns were mainly from rebar, rubber, and soda ash [2]. - The CSI Commodity Index's year - on - year sequence has bottomed out and rebounded, potentially indicating that the PPI sequence is in the process of bottoming out and rebounding. Microscopically, the sector index trends reflect certain operational pressures in the steel and chemical industries [2]. - Investors should gradually reduce their reliance on fixed - income assets and practice the methodology of stock - bond - commodity asset allocation, increasing the proportion of commodities in the portfolio [2]. - The CSI Commodity Index has shown a relatively independent and excellent performance compared to overseas indices, but the recent increase in correlation needs attention. Adding an appropriate amount of commodities to the traditional stock - commodity portfolio can significantly improve the return - risk ratio of the portfolio [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - In H1 2025, the commodity market presented a narrow - range oscillation. The CSI Commodity Index rose slightly by 0.20% annually, with an amplitude of only 10.27%. It was difficult to form a long - term trend, showing an inverted V - shaped oscillation after a strong start [9]. - Driven by frequent macro - events, the commodity market was repeatedly disturbed by policies and geopolitics. With the global economy still bottoming out, the demand side was weak, especially for industrial products. Three macro black - swan events occurred in H1 [12][14]. - There were two obvious characteristics in the commodity market: the significant differentiation between agricultural and industrial products, and the further differentiation within commodities due to different types of event shocks [15]. 3.2 Index Return Attribution 3.2.1 Roll Yield Contribution - The roll yield in H1 2025 was positive overall, at 1.07%, an improvement compared to 2024, possibly suggesting that the global economic growth is bottoming out. Most months had positive roll yields, except for March which had a large negative value [20]. 3.2.2 Sector Return Contribution - In H1 2025, the trends of industrial and agricultural products diverged. The agricultural product market had a small price increase and relatively low volatility, while the industrial product market had a large price decline and relatively large amplitude fluctuations. Agricultural products outperformed industrial products in most months [23]. 3.2.3 Variety Return Contribution - At the sector level, black and energy - chemical sectors mostly made negative return contributions, while precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products mostly made positive return contributions. At the variety level, gold, silver, and copper had large positive return contributions, while rebar, rubber, and soda ash had large negative return contributions [24]. 3.3 Macro - Micro Representativeness 3.3.1 Macro Level: The CSI Commodity Index Leads PPI by About 2 Months - The CSI Commodity Index's year - on - year sequence is highly correlated with the PPI year - on - year and can lead by about 2 months. Recently, the commodity index's year - on - year sequence has bottomed out and rebounded, perhaps indicating that the PPI sequence is bottoming out and rebounding [25]. 3.3.2 Micro Level: The Sector Index Moves in Sync with the Industry's Total Profits - The year - on - year sequence of the sub - sector index is highly correlated with the year - on - year sequence of the corresponding industry's total profits. The energy - chemical futures index is in the process of bottoming out, and the steel futures index is still finding its bottom [29]. 3.4 Comparison of Major Asset Classes - In the long - term, the commodity market has similar returns but lower risks compared to the equity market. In H1 2025, the commodity market's risk indicators were still better than those of the equity market [38][39]. - The current risk - free interest rate is quite low, and the investment cost - performance of bonds has declined significantly. Investors should gradually practice the methodology of major asset allocation and increase the proportion of commodities in the portfolio [40]. - Since 2024, the correlation between the commodity market and the equity market has been increasing. In H1 2025, the correlation remained relatively high, but it decreased rapidly at the end of June [43]. 3.5 Comparison with Overseas Indices - In the long - term, the CSI Commodity Index has obvious advantages in both returns and risks compared to overseas mainstream commodity indices. In H1 2025, it still had better performance in risk control [47][48]. - The correlation between the CSI Commodity Index and overseas mainstream commodity indices increased rapidly in early April and remained high in Q2, mainly due to the impact of the tariff shock [50]. 3.6 Application Cases - Adding an appropriate amount of commodities to the traditional stock - commodity portfolio can significantly improve the return - risk ratio of the portfolio. Replacing half of the stocks in the traditional 40 - 60 stock - bond portfolio with commodities can significantly reduce the portfolio's volatility and drawdown while keeping the returns similar [54][60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - As of the week ending July 10, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,430 tons, a decrease of 90 tons from the previous week, a month-on-month decrease of 0.86% and a year-on-year increase of 72.28%. With the arrival of hot weather and the listing of seasonal fresh fruits, the demand for red dates is in the seasonal off - peak, and inventory digestion is slow. The new - season crops are in the critical fruit - setting period, and the market focuses on the weather in the producing areas. Currently, the growth of jujube trees is relatively good, and the expectation of production reduction has weakened. The price of the main red date futures contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Continuously monitor the situation of the second - crop flowers and fruits [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main red date futures contract was 10,390 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract was 134,679 lots, a decrease of 5,134 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 16,805 lots, an increase of 262 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 9,007, and the total number of effective warehouse receipt forecasts was 1,594 [2] Spot Market - The wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 6 yuan/jin, the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Henan was 4.35 yuan/jin. The prices of special - grade red dates in Hebei, Henan, and Guangdong were 9.73 yuan/kg, 9.8 yuan/kg, and 11 yuan/kg respectively. The price of first - grade red dates in Guangdong was 9.8 yuan/kg [2] Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates was 6.069 million tons, an increase of 3.187 million tons, and the planting area was 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national red date inventory was 10,430 tons, a decrease of 90 tons. The monthly export volume was 2,229,227 kg, a decrease of 132,571 kg, and the cumulative export volume was 15,350,567 kg [2] Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of red dates in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi was 8 yuan/kg. The cumulative sales volume of red dates of好想你 was 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year production growth rate was 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points [2] Industry News - In the growth period of jujube trees in the main grey - jujube producing areas in Xinjiang, jujube farmers are actively engaged in field management such as watering and fertilizing. Most jujube farmers keep new branches during the bud - pruning process. The jujube trees are entering the physiological fruit - dropping stage, and there is no concentrated fruit - dropping phenomenon. The temperature has dropped compared with the forecast, and the increased rainfall is suitable for fruit - setting. The fruit - setting of the first - crop flowers in some jujube orchards was average in the early stage [2]

运行为主。同时，小麦饲用替代优势明显，饲料企业逐渐加大小麦采购替代玉米，玉米饲用需求有所下降 。盘面来看，近来玉米期价高位震荡回落，总体表现偏弱。 | 观点总结（ | 受玉米淀粉企业生产持续亏损影响下，行业开机率继续处于近年同期低位，供应压力明显减弱。不过，民用及造纸市场需求欠佳， | | --- | --- | | 淀粉） | 下游需求也进入传统淡季，下游提货略有放缓，供需表现仍然宽松。截至7月9日，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量133.7万吨，较 | | 重点关注 | 周四、周五mysteel玉米周度消耗以及淀粉企业开机、库存情况 | | | 上周增加2.40万吨，周增幅1.83%，月增幅2.14%；年同比增幅26.97%。盘面来看，受玉米回落影响，近日淀粉也总体偏弱震荡。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][72]. Core Viewpoints - In June, the total number of pigs slaughtered by 16 listed companies reached 16.6133 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 1.62% and a year-on-year increase of 46.64% [10][11]. - The average weight of pigs slaughtered in June was 128.60 kg, down by 0.90 kg month-on-month [17]. - The average selling price of pigs in June was 14.30 CNY/kg, a decrease of 2.28% month-on-month [17]. - The market for piglets saw a decline in sales, with a price of 439.29 CNY/head, down 4.21% month-on-month [11][31]. - The poultry sector is experiencing a rebound in white chicken prices, with a current price of 6.24 CNY/kg, although it is still down 0.51 CNY/kg week-on-week [37]. - The soybean meal market is under pressure, with a current price of 2924 CNY/ton, down 4 CNY/ton week-on-week [54]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - June saw an increase in the number of pigs slaughtered, with significant growth from companies like Zhenghong Technology (+215.48%) and Jin Xin Nong (+38.35%) [10][11]. - The average weight of pigs slaughtered decreased, with listed companies averaging 122.72 kg, down 1.97 kg month-on-month [17]. - The average selling price of pigs decreased, with major companies like Muyuan and Wens selling at 14.08 CNY/kg and 14.39 CNY/kg respectively, both showing a decline [17]. Poultry Sector - White chicken prices are rebounding, with a notable increase in chick prices, as seen with Yisheng's chick price rising to 2.0 CNY/bird [37][41]. - The egg-laying hen market is facing challenges due to increased difficulties in importing chicks, maintaining high prices for quality chicks [41]. Agricultural Products - The soybean meal market is experiencing fluctuations, with current prices reflecting a slight decrease in the spot market but a stable futures market [54]. - The USDA's report indicates a projected decrease in U.S. soybean planting area, which may affect future supply dynamics [54].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term consolidation.内外基本面偏空，短期供应充足，看多追多操作需谨慎 [1][2][3] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term oscillation.虽有高关税和低进口支撑，但豆粕替代作用增强，缺乏明显驱动，短期区间行情对待 [1][4][5][7] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish bias.多空因素交织，6月马棕榈油库存意外累库，继续追多看多操作需谨慎 [1][8][9] - **Cotton**: Rebound under pressure.USDA报告多空交织，国内新棉生长好但需求弱，棉价万四位置承压 [1][10][11][12][13] - **Red Dates**: Sell on rallies.新季枣树生长良好，库存高需求弱，关注中下旬逢高沽空机会 [1][14][15] - **Live Pigs**: Weak oscillation.养殖端出栏节奏和二育入场影响短期行情，中长期产能过剩，猪价反弹空间有限 [1][16][17][18] Summaries by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: 期货主力日收盘2976元/吨，涨0.74%；全国现货均价2914.86元/吨，涨0.90% [2] - **Supply**: 7月美豆种植天气基本顺利，南美丰产定局；国内港口及油厂大豆、豆粕进入累库阶段，饲料企业库存高于去年同期，补库积极性减缓 [1] - **Inventory**: 截至7月4日，全国港口大豆库存788万吨，环比减20.80万吨；125家油厂大豆库存636.4万吨，环比减29.47万吨，豆粕库存82.24万吨，环比增13.08万吨 [3] Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: 期货主力日收盘2633元/吨，涨0.84%；全国现货均价2613.16元/吨，涨0.73% [4] - **Supply**: 欧盟及加籽种植天气降雨偏低，加籽种植面积同比下降；国内7 - 9月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，叠加100%加菜粕进口关税 [1] - **Inventory**: 截至7月4日，沿海地区主要油厂菜籽库存16.2万吨，环比减2.6万吨；菜粕库存0.46万吨，环比减0.64万吨 [7] Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: 期货主力日收盘8682元/吨，涨0.51%；全国均价8840元/吨，涨0.28% [8] - **Supply**: 东南亚棕榈油累库周期开启，美国威胁对印尼征32%进口关税，印尼出口或下滑，马来西亚关税较低 [9] - **Inventory**: 截至7月4日，全国重点地区棕榈油商业库存53.51万吨，环比减0.23万吨 [9] Cotton - **Market Situation**: 期货主力CF2509收13885元/吨，涨0.14%；国内现货15282元/吨，涨0.53% [10][11] - **Supply**: 美棉播种基本完成，优良率提升，出口增加，但USDA调增新季产量及期末库存；国内新棉生长良好，实播面积增加，5月进口棉减少 [1][11][12][13] - **Demand**: 下游订单走弱，企业开机率低于去年同期，终端市场成交放缓 [1][13] Red Dates - **Market Situation**: 主力合约CJ2601收10600元/吨，增仓上行0.95% [15] - **Supply**: 新季枣树生长良好，产区预估产量正常或略减，库存高于同期 [15] - **Demand**: 需求淡季，下游采购积极性一般，后市干果需求难显著走强 [15] Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: 期货主力Ih2509收14345元/吨，跌0.21%；全国外三元现货14910元/吨 [16] - **Supply**: 短期出栏量减少，规模场挺价；中长期产能过剩，预计下半年出栏量仍有增长空间 [17][18] - **Demand**: 消费淡季，需求稳中趋弱 [17]