Core Insights - The first Central Document of the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of modernizing agriculture and rural areas, focusing on the integration of various agricultural sectors and promoting rural revitalization [1] Group 1: Agricultural Modernization - The document highlights the need to cultivate and expand county-level industries that benefit the population, integrating technology, green practices, quality, and branding in agriculture [1] - It supports the development of green and efficient farming, deep processing of agricultural products, and the cultivation of premium agricultural brands [1] Group 2: Media Empowerment in Agriculture - The "Media+" model is introduced to link various sectors such as market, culture, and technology, aiming to enhance agricultural efficiency, rural vitality, and farmers' income by 2027 [1] - The model encourages innovative media strategies to empower the agricultural economy, combining mainstream media reforms with agricultural initiatives [2] Group 3: Case Studies and Successes - The "Media+" approach has successfully transformed local agricultural products into culturally significant brands, enhancing their market presence through innovative marketing strategies like live streaming and community engagement [2][3] - For instance, a live streaming event in Zhuhai led to the sale of over 300,000 fish within two days, generating sales exceeding 8 million yuan [3] Group 4: Government Initiatives - The establishment of the first "Media+" alliance in Guangdong marks a significant step in promoting agricultural branding and sales [4] - The Guangdong government report indicates that "Media+" has played a crucial role in upgrading agricultural brands and increasing sales over the past year [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The report presents a comprehensive overview of macro - economic data, commodity investment trends, and financial news, offering insights into various sectors such as metals, energy, agriculture, and the stock market. It also includes bond market and foreign exchange market analyses, along with research reports from different institutions [1][2][29] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data - GDP growth in Q4 2025 slowed to 4.5% year - on - year, compared with 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was 49.3%, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%. Social financing and new RMB loans decreased in December 2025. CPI and PPI showed positive and negative growth trends respectively [1] Commodity Investment - **Comprehensive**: The EU's investigation into Chinese wind power companies has drawn strong responses from China. The CME will continue contract business under certain conditions. There are differences in the basis of domestic commodities on February 4 [2] - **Metals**: Gold and silver prices fluctuated. Gold futures in New York exceeded $5030/ounce on February 5, and silver reached $90/ounce. The industry is focusing on key technology research and development. Exchanges have adjusted margin levels and price limits to control speculation [3][4] - **Coal, Coke, Iron Ore**: Indonesian coal miners have suspended spot coal exports due to production cuts [6] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Musk's team visited Chinese photovoltaic companies, boosting the A - share photovoltaic sector. Russia's oil revenue in January dropped significantly. Morgan Stanley adjusted its oil price forecast [8][9] - **Agricultural Products**: Most agricultural product prices rose as of late January. South Korea confirmed a new African swine fever case. The government announced key tasks for the "Three Rural Issues" this year [12] Financial News - **Open Market**: The central bank conducted 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on February 4, resulting in a net withdrawal of 3025 billion yuan [13] - **Important News**: High - level diplomatic communications took place between China and the US, and China and Russia. The central bank emphasized financial services for key areas. The government announced measures for agricultural development and responded to EU investigations [14][15][16] - **Bond Market**: Bond yields in the inter - bank and exchange markets showed mixed trends. The money market interest rates had different movements. Some bonds had significant price changes, and new bond issuance and trading information was provided [23][24][25] - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The on - shore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar decreased slightly, and the dollar index rose [28] - **Research Reports**: Institutions such as CITIC Securities and CICC issued research reports, predicting a high probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut in Q2 2026 and the expansion of global liquidity [29] Stock Market - A - shares rose on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.85%. The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.05%. The number of new margin trading accounts increased significantly in January [32][33]

Core Insights - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) for January 2026 reached 125.3 points, marking a month-on-month increase of 6.3% and a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, the highest since July 2022 [1][3] - The increase in the index is attributed to optimistic business expectations and ongoing production expansion, supported by government policies [1] - However, challenges arise from international geopolitical changes, loose monetary policy expectations, and volatile commodity futures prices, necessitating careful risk assessment and macroeconomic policy adjustments [1] Price Index Summary - The CBPI increased to 125.3 points from 117.9 points in December 2025, with significant contributions from various sectors [3] - The energy price index decreased to 94.6 points, down 3.2% month-on-month and down 11.6% year-on-year [3] - The chemical price index rose to 99.3 points, up 3.8% month-on-month but down 9.8% year-on-year [3] - The black metal price index increased to 79.2 points, up 2.2% month-on-month and down 1.6% year-on-year [3] - The non-ferrous metal price index surged to 159.6 points, up 9.9% month-on-month and up 26.6% year-on-year [3] - The agricultural product price index slightly increased to 98.3 points, up 0.2% month-on-month and up 5.7% year-on-year [3] - The mineral price index fell to 71.3 points, down 0.3% month-on-month and down 10.3% year-on-year [3] Commodity Price Movements - Among 50 monitored commodities, 33 (66%) saw price increases while 17 (34%) experienced declines [4] - The top three commodities with the highest month-on-month price increases were lithium carbonate (up 48.4%), refined tin (up 20.2%), and refined nickel (up 19.5%) [4] - The commodities with the largest month-on-month price declines were corrugated paper (down 13.1%), caustic soda (down 7%), and coke (down 6.9%) [4] Comparative Analysis - The CBPI trends align with the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, which saw a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [5] - The CBPI has shown a consistent upward trend alongside international commodity indices such as CRB and S&P GSCI [5] - Geopolitical tensions in North America and the Middle East, along with a weakening US dollar, have contributed to rising international oil prices and record highs in copper prices [5] - January saw historical highs in gold and silver prices, although significant declines occurred later in the month due to margin adjustments and Federal Reserve announcements [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the Chinese commodity price index has shown a continuous upward trend for nine months, reaching a three-and-a-half-year high in January 2026, with a month-on-month increase of 6.3% [1] - In January 2026, the Chinese commodity price index stood at 125.3 points, with 33 out of 50 monitored commodities experiencing price increases [1] - Key commodities with significant price increases include lithium carbonate, refined tin, and refined nickel, which rose by 48.4%, 20.2%, and 19.5% respectively compared to the previous month [1] Group 2 - From an industry perspective, the price indices for non-ferrous metals and chemical products have risen significantly, increasing by 9.9% and 3.8% respectively, influenced by expectations of loose international monetary policy, geopolitical factors, and futures market dynamics [3] - The agricultural product market has shown a slight recovery in price index, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, indicating a balance in supply and demand [3] Group 3 - Experts suggest that the rise in the commodity price index in January reflects a general stabilization and positive trend in the market, but also warns of increased volatility in international financial markets and the need for enhanced risk assessment and macro policy adjustments to maintain stability in supply chains [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the documents. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Fundamental factors such as decreasing production, increasing exports, and expected inventory decline to around 2.9 million tons will support the crude palm oil futures to effectively stand above 4,200 ringgit. The Dalian palm oil futures market will maintain a volatile rebound trend, mainly fluctuating around 9,200 yuan in the short term. After effective consolidation and standing above 9,100 yuan, there is a chance for the futures to follow and gradually launch an upward market [1]. - Soybean oil: The new guidance on the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit may increase the industrial use of US soybean oil, but this positive factor has been digested by the market. With the continuous listing of Brazilian soybeans, CBOT soybeans may decline. In the domestic market, Brazilian soybeans are being harvested and listed, and the market's price - holding mentality is weak. The spot soybean oil will continue to fluctuate with the market, and the basis quote will remain stable [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by the external market and the inflow of long - position funds, the rapeseed oil futures price once reached 9,300 yuan. However, as the Spring Festival stocking ends, the terminal demand weakens, and the willingness of funds to chase the rise is insufficient. The spot market transactions are mainly for rigid demand, and the far - month basis quote has significantly declined [1]. Apples - In the production areas, the stocking atmosphere of late - maturing Fuji apples in Gansu and Liaoning is good, and the de - stocking progress of the national apple inventory has accelerated. In the sales areas, the arrival volume of apples in Guangdong wholesale markets has increased significantly, but there is pressure on the daily digestion of the arrival volume. The market sentiment has warmed up, and the futures price has increased with positions. Attention should be paid to the inventory de - stocking situation [4][8]. Red Dates - The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern in the 25/26 production season of red dates still exists. Traders are cautious in stocking, and downstream buyers purchase on demand. With the approaching suspension of logistics, the arrival volume in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market has decreased recently. The futures are still in the low - valuation range, and the registration volume of new - season red date futures warehouse receipts and effective forecasts is relatively small. The social inventory utilization rate is high, and the short - term de - stocking pressure is difficult to relieve. It is expected that the red date price will maintain a volatile bottom - building trend [10]. Pigs - The spot price continues to weaken, and the market's willingness to sell has also increased. The average daily slaughter volume in February will remain high. The slaughter profit is limited, and it is the traditional stocking peak before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the pre - festival stocking intensity. The current fundamental positive factors are limited, and the game will increase. The spot price may have support later. The positive sentiment in the futures market yesterday was mainly due to the policy of strengthening the comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity in the No. 1 Central Document, but the current loose pattern still exists. It is expected that the market will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [11]. Meal - The US soybeans maintain a range - oscillating pattern with limited phased drivers. The shipping from Brazil has accelerated, and the weather speculation in Argentina has decreased. The 3 - 5 spread has narrowed. The pre - festival stocking sentiment in the market is expected to gradually weaken, and the futures lack further drivers. Attention should be paid to the left - hand side changes [13]. Corn - In the Northeast, the grain sales have increased compared with the previous period, but the enterprises' replenishment is approaching the end, and the procurement demand is average, with prices running steadily and weakly. In North China, the number of arriving vehicles continues to increase slightly but is unevenly distributed in different regions, with prices rising and falling. On the demand side, the inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased significantly but is still at a relatively low level, with a slight willingness to replenish inventory; feed enterprises have basically completed pre - festival stocking and mainly purchase on demand. In the short term, corn stocking is approaching the end, and the trading will gradually weaken, which will put pressure on prices. However, the relatively fast grain sales, the farmers' price - holding attitude, and the low inventory of the middle and lower reaches support the prices, and the overall price will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the subsequent grain sales rhythm and policy release intensity [15]. Sugar - The ICE raw sugar futures have declined, and the market is concerned about supply - related news. Traders are closely watching the news from the annual Dubai Sugar Conference. It is expected that due to the decline in production, the global sugar supply may be more balanced in the 2026/27 season. Internationally, Brazil is approaching the end of the crushing season, which is in line with the previous estimates of institutions, and has less impact on the market. India's sugarcane crushing progress in the 2025/26 season has accelerated significantly, with the cumulative sugar production increasing by more than 20% year - on - year as of mid - January. Thailand's cumulative sugar production has decreased by about 12% year - on - year due to the white leaf disease and the delayed start of crushing, and the sugar production may have a slight downward adjustment space. It is expected that the raw sugar will maintain a low - level oscillation between 14 - 15 cents. Domestically, the Spring Festival stocking is approaching the end, and the market news is dull. The current price is at the bottom - grinding stage. Although there is no positive driver in the market, the negative factors have been gradually realized. In the absence of new negative factors, the price decline is blocked. It is expected that the futures will more follow the overall macro - sentiment fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around the previous high of 5,300 [19][20]. Cotton - The ICE cotton futures have slightly declined. The registration of warehouse receipts for delivery has put pressure on the near - month contracts, and traders are waiting for the weekly export sales report from the US Department of Agriculture. The US cotton listing inspection is approaching the end, and the inspection progress has slightly accelerated but is still slower than the same period last year. The weekly deliverable ratio has continued to decline slightly. The USDA export sales have significantly declined, but the shipping has entered the peak period. In the industry, the cotton price is still under pressure but also has support. The market buying power is strong, and the cotton consumption is not weak, so the support below the cotton price is still strong. On the demand side, the pre - festival inventory replenishment of textile enterprises has basically ended, the operating rate has slightly declined, and the rigid - demand procurement is cautious, with only a small amount of sporadic replenishment. The stocking rhythm of traders has slowed down, and the trading atmosphere has cooled down. However, the high commercial inventory has not loosened the spot. In the short term, the cotton price may oscillate in a wide range, and attention should be paid to the support strength around 14,500 [21]. Eggs - In February, the number of newly - laid hens is expected to continue to decrease due to the low - level replenishment in the previous period. The number of old - hen slaughters will also slightly decrease. The inventory of laying hens in production will continue to decline. However, due to the suspension of trading during the Spring Festival, a large amount of inventory may accumulate in the market, and the market will face great pressure to sell goods after the festival. On the demand side, the Spring Festival stocking has basically ended, and the demand has rapidly weakened, especially in the southern market. The oversupply and the enhanced market risk - control awareness have led to an increase in the inventory in the production and circulation links. It is expected that the main contract will maintain a weak - oscillating trend in the range [22][23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8,510 yuan, up 0.59% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2605 is 8,086 yuan, down 0.67%. The basis is - 4, down 1.07%. The 05 - 09 spread is 56, up from 10 [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,100 yuan, down 0.44%. The futures price of P2605 is 9,094 yuan, down 0.48%. The basis is 2, down 66.67%. The 05 - 09 spread is - 2, down 3.70% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil is 10,044 yuan, up 0.20%. The futures price of OI605 is 9,243 yuan, up 0.30%. The basis is 801, down 0.99%. The 05 - 09 spread is - 15, down 18.75% [1]. Apples - The futures price of the main contract Apple 2605 is 9,594 yuan, up 1.15%. The price of Apple 2610 is 8,310 yuan, up 0.65%. The basis is - 1394, down 8.48%. The 5 - 10 spread is 1284, up 4.48%. The arrival volume in several wholesale markets has increased, and the national cold - storage inventory is 6.5405 million tons, down 4.21% [4]. Red Dates - The futures price of the main contract Red Dates 2605 is 8,905 yuan, down 0.17%. The price of Red Dates 2607 is 8,940 yuan, down 0.22%. The price of Red Dates 2609 is 9,095 yuan, down 0.22%. The 5 - 7 spread is - 35, up 12.50%. The 5 - 9 spread is - 190, up 2.56%. The warehouse receipts and effective forecasts total 3,829, down 0.18% [10]. Pigs - The futures price of the main contract Pig 2605 is 11,735 yuan, up 1.16%. The price of Pig 2603 is 11,150 yuan, down 0.09%. The 3 - 5 spread is - 585, down 32.95%. The main - contract position is 145,975 hands, up 58.25%. The warehouse receipts are 647, up 547.00%. The spot prices in different regions have different degrees of decline [11]. Meal - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 3,100 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2605 is 2,723 yuan, down 0.15%. The basis is 377, up 1.07%. The warehouse receipts are 36,228, up 8.4% [13]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2,520 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of RM2605 is 2,247 yuan, down 0.09%. The basis is 273, up 0.74%. The warehouse receipts are 0 [13]. Corn - **Corn**: The futures price of Corn 2603 is 2,263 yuan, down 0.18%. The basis is 62, up 6.90%. The 3 - 7 spread is - 20, down 33.33%. The import profit is 223 yuan, down 1.84%. The position is 1,825,020 hands, down 2.85%. The warehouse receipts are 53,570, down 2.39% [15]. - **Corn starch**: The futures price of Corn Starch 2603 is 2,510 yuan, up 0.04%. The basis is 242, up 0.83%. The 3 - 7 spread is - 71, down 4.41%. The starch - corn 03 spread is 247, up 2.07%. The position is 299,151 hands, up 0.37%. The warehouse receipts are 11,161, unchanged [15]. Sugar - The futures price of Sugar 2605 is 5,210 yuan, up 0.83%. The price of Sugar 2609 is 5,214 yuan, up 0.71%. The ICE raw sugar price is 14.63 cents per pound, up 2.59%. The 5 - 9 spread is - 4, up 60.00%. The main - contract position is 451,761 hands, up 0.06%. The warehouse receipts are 14,216, unchanged. The effective forecasts are 503, up 2.86% [19]. Cotton - The futures price of Cotton 2605 is 14,680 yuan, up 0.20%. The price of Cotton 2609 is 14,805 yuan, up 0.17%. The ICE cotton price is 62.30 cents per pound, down 0.80%. The 5 - 9 spread is - 125, up 3.85%. The main - contract position is 716,331 hands, down 0.22%. The warehouse receipts are 10,438, up 0.37%. The effective forecasts are 1,369, down 0.22% [21]. Eggs - The futures price of Egg 03 is 2,945 yuan per 500 kg, down 0.27%. The price of Egg 04 is 3,183 yuan per 500 kg, down 0.47%. The egg - producing area price is 3.57 yuan per catty, down 2.49%. The basis is - 83, down 11.71%. The 3 - 4 spread is - 238, up 2.86% [22].

研究中心农产品团队 2026/02/05 【行情分析】： 棉花：期初库存同比较低，抵消了大部分产量的增量，主要关注后续消费情况。由于国内纺织产量还在扩张，且下游利润尚可，叠加国内促消 费政策频出，利好内需，同时对外出口表现尚可，预计棉花需求将持续好转，且新作季新疆种植面积降有所下降，总体上棉花适合长期做多。 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2026/01/29 | 2190 | 2290 | 2300 | 2430 | 9 | 10 | 310 | 2750 | 2820 | 160 | -98 | | 2026/01/30 | 2190 | 2290 | 2300 | 2440 | 19 | 20 | 323 | 2750 | 2820 | 174 | -98 | | 2026/ ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Before the USDA's February agricultural product supply - demand report, analysts made various predictions about soybean production and inventory in 2025 - 26, including those of the US, Brazil, and Argentina, as well as global soybean inventory [1]. - In the week ending January 29, US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales are expected to increase within certain ranges [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to end ten consecutive months of increase in January due to decreased production and increased exports [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Soybean Production and Inventory Forecast - The average forecast for the US 2025 - 26 soybean year - end inventory is 347 million bushels, with a forecast range of 265 - 375 million bushels, compared to the 350 million bushels predicted in the January report [1]. - The average forecast for Brazil's 2025 - 26 soybean production is 179.39 million tons, with a forecast range of 178 - 181.6 million tons, compared to 178 million tons in the January report [1]. - The average forecast for Argentina's 2025 - 26 soybean production is 48.38 million tons, with a forecast range of 47 - 50.5 million tons, compared to 48.5 million tons in the January report [1]. - The average forecast for the global 2025 - 26 soybean year - end inventory is 125.3 million tons, with a forecast range of 121.8 - 127 million tons, compared to 124.41 million tons in the January report [1]. US Soybean, Soybean Meal, and Soybean Oil Export Sales Forecast - As of the week ending January 29, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 40 - 165 million tons, with the current market year expected to increase by 40 - 160 million tons and the next market year by 0 - 5 million tons [1]. - US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 25 - 50 million tons, all in the current market year [1]. - US soybean oil export sales are expected to increase by 0 - 2.5 million tons, all in the current market year [1]. Malaysia Palm Oil Situation - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to drop to 2.91 million tons in January, a 4.64% decrease from December [1]. - Palm oil production is expected to drop 12% to 1.61 million tons, the third consecutive month of decline but still possibly the highest January production since 2019 [1]. - Palm oil product exports are expected to increase 7.48% to 1.42 million tons, the second consecutive month of growth [1]. Price and Basis Information - The report provides historical data on import crushing profits of Brazilian soybeans, import profits of various oils, spot prices of oils and meals, basis of protein meals, basis of oils, and various price spreads in the oil and oilseed market [1].

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: February 5, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 2. Market Review - **Soybean meal futures contracts**: - For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3047, the opening price was 3050, the highest price was 3053, the lowest price was 2973, the closing price was 3002, with a decline of 45 and a decrease rate of 1.48%. The trading volume was 181,273, the open interest was 287,070, and the open interest change was -71,019 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2756, the opening price was 2756, the highest price was 2759, the lowest price was 2721, the closing price was 2727, with a decline of 29 and a decrease rate of 1.05%. The trading volume was 1,085,590, the open interest was 2,153,812, and the open interest change was 64,761 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2607 contract, the previous settlement price was 2704, the opening price was 2703, the highest price was 2709, the lowest price was 2686, the closing price was 2691, with a decline of 13 and a decrease rate of 0.48%. The trading volume was 44,976, the open interest was 484,107, and the open interest change was 10,962 [6]. 3. Core Views - **External market (US soybeans)**: The US soybean futures contracts were weak, with the main contract close to 1055 cents. There was a rebound in the previous period due to the digestion of negative factors. Although the January USDA report raised the ending stocks of the new US soybean season, the price was already significantly below the US soybean planting cost, so the downside was relatively limited. The weekly US soybean export data was good for two consecutive weeks, and there were relatively positive expectations for biodiesel policies, leading to a small - scale rebound. However, fundamentally, due to the basically determined high - yield pattern of Brazilian soybeans, the subsequent supply pressure would always put downward pressure on the market. If US soybean exports weakened or the weather in Argentina improved, the external market might continue to fall below 1050 cents [7]. - **Domestic soybean meal**: The 05 and subsequent contracts were priced based on the external market cost. Since there was a lack of potential positive factors in the CBOT, the overall trend was range - bound, and the rebound was slightly bearish. The risk was that if the subsequent auction of imported soybeans fell short of expectations, it might drive the spot price to rise unexpectedly, which could have a small positive impact on the 05 contract [7]. 4. Industry News - The US Treasury Department issued the 45Z proposed rules on Tuesday to regulate how biofuel producers can obtain a $1 - per - gallon tax credit for low - carbon fuels (including aviation fuels), providing more certainty for producers of ethanol, biodiesel, and other products seeking tax credits. However, analysts pointed out that there were still some unresolved issues in the regulations [10]. - The USDA's monthly soybean crushing data showed that the US soybean crushing volume in December reached the second - highest level in history. The December crushing volume was 229.9 million bushels (equivalent to 6.896 million short tons), a 4.2% increase from November's 220.5 million bushels and a 5.6% increase from December 2024's 217.7 million bushels. The December crushing volume was the second - highest monthly crushing volume, second only to the 236.3 million bushels in October 2025 [10]. - Crop experts estimated the 2025/26 Argentine soybean production at 48 million tons, lower than the previous week's forecast of 49 million tons and the USDA's current estimate of 48.5 million tons. The southern planting area in Argentina has recently become drier, with insufficient rainfall for most of the next few weeks, which requires close attention. The expected 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production remained unchanged at a record 179 million tons, with a tendency to maintain or increase the forecast in the future [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US labor market shows a weakening trend, with the January ADP employment falling short of expectations, leading to a weakening of market risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar. The short - term outlook for the US economy is mixed, with the employment market cooling while the service sector shows mild expansion and inflation pressure remaining [2][18]. - Gold prices fluctuate and close higher. The inflow of bottom - fishing funds lacks sustainability. Geopolitical risks persist, and the progress of the US - Iran negotiation falls short of expectations, increasing the long - short game in the gold market [3][14]. - The bond market has many potential negative factors, and the probability of weakening after a sideways movement is high. It is recommended to moderately focus on shorting T [4][27]. - In the sugar market, the production and sales pressure of sugar mills in Guangxi is large, and the sales pressure is expected to further increase in the later stage of the crushing season. The domestic sugar market is facing seasonal supply pressure, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [5][42]. - After a significant macro - level cooling, zinc prices may enter an oscillatory adjustment stage [6]. - The US propane inventory has decreased significantly, and the de - stocking amplitude is expected to narrow next week [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Key points: The cancellation of the US - Iran negotiation on Friday, the inflow of bottom - fishing funds in the gold market with limited sustainability, the repeated short - term geopolitical situation, and the increase in the long - short game. It is recommended to wait for the volatility to decline before making allocations [3][14][15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Key points: The Fed decides to keep the capital requirements of large - scale banks unchanged in 2026. The January ADP employment in the US is lower than expected, the labor market weakens, the market risk appetite weakens, and the US dollar rebounds in the short term [16][18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Key points: The performance guidance of AMD is lower than expected, the Q4 revenue of Google's cloud business grows by 48%, but the large - scale capital expenditure in the future causes stock price fluctuations. During the earnings season, the US stock market is expected to maintain high - level oscillations [20][22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Key points: The Shanghai Composite Index recovers and returns to 4100 points. Affected by news, coal stocks drive the pro - cyclical blue - chip sector to recover. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures and evenly allocate the three major stock indexes [24][25]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Key points: The central bank conducts a 75 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan on the day. The bond market is likely to weaken after a sideways movement, and it is recommended to moderately focus on shorting T [26][27]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - Key points: Some Indonesian coal mines suspend offering due to production quota issues. The Indonesian side has a clear demand for production cut and price protection, and the bottom of coal prices is more solid, but the upward elasticity needs to be observed [28]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Key points: The iron ore project of Atlas Iron is approved by the government. The iron ore price maintains a weak oscillation. The downstream restocking is completed, and the supply is at a high level. The price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [30]. 2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Key points: Brazil imposes anti - dumping duties on Chinese and Indian color - coated sheets. The steel price continues to oscillate. The steel price is less affected by the rise in coal prices, and it is recommended to treat the steel price with an oscillatory mindset [31][33][34]. 2.4 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - Key points: The coking coal price in the Linfen market is weakly stable. The supply may shrink during the Spring Festival. The downstream demand is weak, and the market sentiment is affected by the Indonesian event, showing a strong oscillation [36][37]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Key points: India's sugar production increases, and the sugar production in Guangxi decreases. The production and sales rate is at a low level, and the sugar mill's sales pressure is expected to increase. The domestic sugar market is under seasonal supply pressure, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate at a low level [38][40][42]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Key points: Malaysia's palm oil inventory may decline in January. The US Treasury Department issues the 45Z proposed rule. It is recommended to focus on relevant data and conferences and consider going long on dips [43][45][46]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Key points: Sigma Lithium resumes mining operations, and Fulin Jinggong and CATL increase capital in Jiangxi Shenghua. The production and demand of lithium carbonate decline in February, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to go long on dips after the position and volatility stabilize [47][49][51]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Key points: The LME lead shows a discount. The lead market has a situation of weak supply and demand. The lead price is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to medium - term long positions [52]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Key points: The LME zinc shows a discount, and Boliden's zinc concentrate production in Q4 2025 decreases by 15% quarter - on - quarter. Zinc prices may enter an oscillatory adjustment stage, and it is recommended to wait and see [53][54][55]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Key points: Chile releases a key mineral strategy, and the EU proposes a key mineral partnership with the US. The macro - sentiment supports copper prices, but the short - term spot structure is loose. It is recommended to wait and see [56][57][58]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Key points: The LME tin shows a discount. The supply of tin is expected to ease, but the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery and consumption improvement [59][60][61]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Key points: The US propane inventory decreases significantly, but the supply is still abundant. It is recommended to wait and see due to various disturbances [62]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - Key points: The capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt refineries decreases. The asphalt market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term price fluctuates greatly [62][63][65]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (LLDPE) - Key points: The inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises increases. The LLDPE price may oscillate strongly driven by cost, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival [66]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - Key points: The inventory of Chinese methanol ports decreases. Due to the increasing geopolitical risks, the previous short - selling strategy is no longer valid, and it is recommended to close short positions and wait and see [67]. 2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Key points: Ports in the Mediterranean and Chittagong go on strike. The Middle - East geopolitical situation supports the high - level oscillation of the market. The downward space of the spot price is limited [68][69][70].

Group 1 - The "2026 Beijing Supply - Dandong Strawberry Festival" showcased nearly 200 local specialty products from Dandong, including fresh fruits like strawberries and blueberries, as well as processed foods and traditional cultural products [1] - The festival featured interactive food experience zones, such as strawberry candied fruit and creative strawberry dumplings, enhancing engagement with the public [1] - Dandong enterprises reported high demand, with one company selling over 1 million yuan worth of products online during the event [1] Group 2 - The festival introduced an "online China" section for the Beijing-Dandong online New Year goods festival, facilitating a full circulation model of online ordering and offline pickup [2] - Several Dandong companies established preliminary cooperation intentions with Beijing supermarkets and community procurement platforms during the event [2] - A long-term supply agreement was initiated between Dandong suppliers and Beijing's "People's Vegetable Basket" program, aiming for sustainable collaboration beyond short-term sales [2]