2025年06月15日 国泰君安期货研究周报 观点与策略 | 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 | 2 | | 工业硅：上游继续复产，空配思路为主 | 11 | | 多晶硅：关注下周仓单注册信息，反弹后空配 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：矿价企稳，产量回升，偏弱震荡，建议反套 | 20 | | 全国碳市场：CEA大幅反弹，CCER活跃度攀升 | 29 | | 棕榈油：美国生柴政策利好，带动油脂上行 | 33 | | 豆油：压榨恢复较好，国内油脂弱于国际 | 33 | | 豆粕：生柴政策利多美豆，偏强震荡 | 38 | | 豆一：豆类市场氛围偏多，偏强震荡 | 38 | | 玉米：高位震荡 | 44 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 50 | | 棉花：商业库存下降快支撑棉价 | 57 | | 生猪：降重路径改变，等待现货印证 | 64 | | 花生：震荡行情 | 70 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 二 〇 二 五 年 度 1）中国精炼社会库存减少 92 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 06 月 15 日 工业硅：上游继续复产，空配思路为主 多晶硅：关注下周仓单注册信息，反弹后空配 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：工业硅盘面小幅反弹，现货价格维持；多晶硅盘面震荡下行，现货报价亦下移 工业硅运行情况：本周工业硅盘面受仓单持续性去化影响，短期小幅反弹，周五收于 7345 元/吨。现 货市场价格偏维持，SMM 统计新疆通氧 Si5530 报价 7600 元/吨（环比不变），内蒙 99 硅报价 7800 元/吨 (环比不变)。 多晶硅运行情况：本周多晶硅盘面震荡下行，市场交易 SNEC 会场的现货悲观情绪，盘面周五收于 33695 元/吨。多晶硅现货市场来看，上游报价亦有下降，预计后续实际成交价将下降。 供需基本面：工业硅本周行业库存小幅去库；多晶硅上游库存继续累库 工业硅供给端，周度行业库存小幅去库。据百川统计，本周云南、四川、新疆、内蒙地区硅厂继续复产， 提供周产边际增量。新疆地区硅厂电价下调后，亦具备开工的可行性，后续工厂仍有继续复产至接近满开的 预期。西南地区进入丰水期仍具备 ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 现货不具反弹动力，SNEC 展会弥漫悲观情绪 | 走势听教: | | --- | 四川丰水期已至，部分硅厂陆续复工。云南 7 月进入丰水期， 由于电价没有明确给予优惠，因此大部分硅厂都表示不开工， 去年还有一定工业硅库存积压。本周 SMM 库存小幅去化。期 现手中的货源出货情况较好，部分贸易商分批次少量开始备 货，交割库的显性库存开始向隐性库存转移。前期部分硅厂惜 售导致工厂库存累积，本周部分硅厂扛不住高库存压力，趁盘 面反弹之际开始正常释放货源。需求端仍无明显起色，以当前 供给收缩程度，并不支持工业硅现货价格出现明显反弹，后续 仍待供给端的进一步变化。 有 ★多晶硅 色 金 属 近期现货成交量较少，一线大厂价格较为稳定，部分企业的混 包料或搭配售卖产品价格下滑较为严重。市场传言有较多硅料 企业计划提升开工率，但经了解后多为产线切换或产能置换， 因此 6 月硅料排产预期维持 9.6 万吨。从目前排产看，6 月多 晶硅仍有望去库 1 万吨左右。下游价格仍未止跌，硅片端压价 态度明显。龙头企业能否实现联合减产挺价将对基本面走向产 生较大影响。若联合减产成功，则针对部分缺库存硅片厂，硅 料 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Hoshine Silicon Industry has received approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange for its public bond issuance aimed at professional investors, which is expected to effectively supplement working capital and support the development of various business segments [2][3] - The total amount of the bond issuance is not expected to exceed 4 billion yuan, with a maximum term of 5 years, and the specific structure and scale will be determined based on the company's funding needs and market conditions [3] - As of December 31, 2024, Hoshine's consolidated asset-liability ratio is 63.83%, with a total debt of 57.944 billion yuan, indicating significant debt pressure [3][4] Group 2 - The company anticipates that the bond issuance will improve its debt structure, with a projected increase in the current ratio from 0.36 to 0.46, thereby reducing short-term debt pressure and financial risk [3][4] - Hoshine Silicon Industry is one of the largest companies in China's silicon-based new materials industry, focusing on the research, production, and sales of industrial silicon, organic silicon, and polysilicon [5][6] - The company has established extensive business relationships with leading enterprises in downstream industries, with production capacities of 1.22 million tons/year for industrial silicon, 1.73 million tons/year for organic silicon monomers, and 50,000 tons/year for polysilicon [6] Group 3 - The company believes that the future growth of the organic silicon industry will be driven by emerging fields, particularly due to the demand from new energy markets and the expansion of new application scenarios [6] - The bond issuance is also aimed at optimizing the company's asset-liability structure while supporting its ongoing investments in talent acquisition and market development [4][5] - The company has a strong credit rating of AA+ with a stable outlook, indicating a strong ability to repay debts and low default risk [4]

Group 1 - Zijin Mining's net profit will be impacted due to the suspension of mining at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine caused by multiple seismic events, leading to a reduction in copper production guidance for 2025 from 520,000-580,000 tons to 370,000-420,000 tons, with an expected decrease in net profit contribution of 1.72 billion RMB, accounting for 5.37% of the company's total net profit for 2024 [2] - Shanghai Chaoqi Semiconductor's IPO has been accepted, focusing on the research, production, and sales of 300mm and 200mm semiconductor wafers, with a planned fundraising of 4.965 billion RMB [4] - Shenzhen Hengyunchang's IPO has been accepted, specializing in semiconductor equipment core components, with projected revenues increasing from 158.16 million RMB in 2022 to 540.79 million RMB in 2024 [5] Group 2 - Daoshengtianhe's IPO has been approved, with a planned fundraising of 694 million RMB [6] - Guangxi Baifei Dairy's IPO has been accepted, with revenues projected to grow from 781 million RMB in 2022 to 1.423 billion RMB in 2024, and a net profit growth rate of 61.14% [7] - Jiangsu Jinzhi Education has withdrawn its IPO application after being accepted in July 2023, with an expected fundraising of 577 million RMB [8] Group 3 - Tianyue Advanced has received approval for its overseas listing of H-shares, planning to issue up to 87.21 million shares [9] - Guotai Haitong has received approval to issue up to 15 billion RMB in technology innovation bonds to support investment in the technology sector [11] - Aolaide plans to raise no more than 300 million RMB through a private placement for OLED display core material production and working capital [12] Group 4 - Longyang Technology has been publicly criticized by the Shanghai Stock Exchange for discrepancies in its profit forecasts and actual results [14] - ST Xianfeng has been publicly reprimanded by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for false records in its quarterly and semi-annual reports [16] - ST Nanchuan has signed a restructuring investment agreement with several investors, although the agreement carries risks of termination [16] Group 5 - Haimeitechnology's controlling shareholder and actual controller are set to change to Fan Zhonghua, with a share transfer of 25.525 million shares at 7.9 RMB per share [18] - Dongshan Precision plans to invest up to 5.935 billion RMB in Solstice Optoelectronics to expand its optical communication business [19] - Kweichow Moutai has adjusted its 2024 profit distribution plan, increasing the cash dividend per share to 27.673 RMB, totaling 34.671 billion RMB [20] Group 6 - Huitian Thermal Power plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Shenyang with an investment of 734 million RMB [21] - ST Ningke's chairman has resigned for personal reasons, with the general manager taking over the chairman's responsibilities [22] - Zhejiang Meida plans to invest 110 million RMB to acquire approximately 4.87% equity in Magic Vision Intelligent Technology [23]

近期工业硅基本面变化较小，盘面有一定幅度的反弹，市场情绪稍有好转，但下游采购仍偏谨慎， 按需采购为主。工业硅主力合约收盘价在6月3日达到工业硅期货上市以来最低点7070元/吨，随后触底 反弹，盘面价格整体呈上涨趋势，现货价格止跌，市场活跃度稍有提升。其主要原因有二：一是中美贸 易关系有缓和预期，宏观情绪升温，大宗商品普涨，带动工业硅盘面上涨；二是工业硅盘面前期下跌幅 度较大，且已低于成本线，盘面价格向上修复。 具体来看，供应端，北方大厂稳步推进复产计划，叠加进入丰水期，西南地区部分硅厂复产，虽开 工不及往年同期，整体产量仍在增加，同时国内新增产能陆续投放产出，供应增加。需求端，有机硅单 体厂开工负荷提升，有一定的库存压力，下游以少量补货为主，整体成交重心下移；多晶硅企业暂无大 规模复产计划，对工业硅需求变动较小；铝合金企业整体生产稳定，按需采购工业硅，总体需求小幅增 加。 从成本来看，进入丰水期，西南地区电价下调，成本下移，成本支撑进一步减弱；从库存来看，工 业硅库存仍处高位（超过90万吨），对工业硅价格压力较大。 总体来看，虽然南方成本下移，下方成本支撑进一步减弱，但目前价格已低于成本，继续下跌空间 不大。 ...

有机硅 "十五五 " 发展展望 主办单位:中国有色金属工业协会 特邀协办:四川永祥股份有限公司 嘉宾简介： 砖 业 新 线时时发现能发 博 期待与您四川相见! 白洪强，工学博士，现任北京国化新材料技术研究院常务副院长，硅产业绿色发展联盟SAGSI秘书长，石化联合会环氧树脂及应用专业 委员会、中小企业委员会副秘书长。中国化工学会工程会员，英国皇家化学会RSC会员、特许化学家（CChem），高级工程师。 自2005年以来起一直从事有机硅及化工新材料产业政策和市场研究工作，主持及参与了一百多项硅及新材料相关咨询规划课题、项 目，发表论文数十篇，获专利授权13项，主持、参与工艺设计及企业技改提升项目十余项，行业技术标准三十余项。 嘉宾简介： 魏奎先，教授、博士生导师，主要从事硅冶金与硅材料方面的研究。入选国家高层次人才计划青年人才项目、云南省"兴滇人才支持计 划"教学名师、云南省中青年学术与技术带头人、云南省"万人计划"青年拔尖人才。现任中国有色金属学会青年工作委员会副秘书长、中国 有色金属学会半导体材料学术委员会副主任委员、中国非金属矿行业团体标准化工作委员会委员、《铁合金》编委等，曾任昆明理工大学 学术委员会委员 ...

主办单位:中国有色金属工业协会 特邀协办:四川永祥股份有限公司 有机硅 "十五五 " 发展展望 砖 业 新 线时时发现能发 博 期待与您四川相见! 嘉宾简介： 白洪强，工学博士，现任北京国化新材料技术研究院常务副院长，硅产业绿色发展联盟SAGSI秘书长，石化联合会环氧树脂及应用专业 委员会、中小企业委员会副秘书长。中国化工学会工程会员，英国皇家化学会RSC会员、特许化学家（CChem），高级工程师。 自2005年以来起一直从事有机硅及化工新材料产业政策和市场研究工作，主持及参与了一百多项硅及新材料相关咨询规划课题、项 目，发表论文数十篇，获专利授权13项，主持、参与工艺设计及企业技改提升项目十余项，行业技术标准三十余项。 嘉宾简介： 魏奎先，教授、博士生导师，主要从事硅冶金与硅材料方面的研究。入选国家高层次人才计划青年人才项目、云南省"兴滇人才支持计 划"教学名师、云南省中青年学术与技术带头人、云南省"万人计划"青年拔尖人才。现任中国有色金属学会青年工作委员会副秘书长、中国 有色金属学会半导体材料学术委员会副主任委员、中国非金属矿行业团体标准化工作委员会委员、《铁合金》编委等，曾任昆明理工大学 学术委员会委员 ...

交产业期规则目报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月13日 色素吉明 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 品种 | 6月12日 | 6月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 云南国富全乱胶(SCRWF):下海 | 13850 | 13750 | 100 | 0.73% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | ટ્ટર | -140 | 405 | 289.29% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13600 | 13850 | -250 | -1.81% | | | 非标价差 | 15 | -40 | રેર | 137.50% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 46.55 | 46.65 | -0.10 | -0.21% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 56.75 | 56.50 | 0.25 | 0.44% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 12200 | 12200 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 天然橡胶:胶水:西双版纳州 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The report by Shenwan Hongyuan highlights the significant cost advantages of the industrial silicon industry in Xinjiang, driven by abundant coal resources and low electricity costs, suggesting a focus on leading companies like Hoshine Silicon Industry [1][2] Group 1: Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang's coal-electric-silicon integrated industry layout enhances the cost advantages for industrial silicon production, with companies like Hoshine Silicon Industry leading the market [2] - Hoshine Silicon Industry is one of the largest and most complete companies in the silicon-based new materials sector, producing industrial silicon, organic silicon, and polysilicon, thus creating synergistic effects [2] - The company has a designed production capacity of 1.22 million tons per year for industrial silicon, with a projected production volume of 1.8714 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 38.11% [2] Group 2: Cost Advantages - The company maintains a cost advantage in industrial silicon production due to its self-sufficient power plants and integrated energy layout, which helps reduce production costs [3][5] - The average daily output of some electric arc furnaces has exceeded 70 tons, with the electricity consumption per ton of industrial silicon smelting dropping below 10,000 kWh [5] Group 3: Organic Silicon - The company has an annual production capacity of 1.73 million tons for organic silicon, leading the market with significant growth in its three main products: silicone rubber, silicone oil, and siloxane, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 16.31%, 56.66%, and 5.35% in 2024 [6] - Despite a slight decline in organic silicon product prices, the company benefits from its cost advantages in self-produced industrial silicon, ensuring that the net realizable value of its main organic silicon products remains above production costs [8] Group 4: Carbon Silicon - The company has successfully developed 12-inch conductive silicon carbide (SiC) crystals and is advancing processing technologies, positioning itself to capitalize on the growing demand in the power semiconductor industry [9] - The company plans to issue bonds to support its operations and maintain a strong financial structure, ensuring sufficient liquidity for future growth in industrial silicon, organic silicon, and silicon carbide businesses [10]