Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its aluminum price forecast, raising the target price for the first half of 2026 to $3,150 per ton, driven by low global inventories, uncertainties in Indonesia's new capacity power supply, and sustained demand in the renewable energy sector. However, the firm maintains a bearish long-term outlook for aluminum prices, predicting a decline to $2,500 per ton by Q4 2026 and an average of $2,400 per ton in 2027 [1][4][6]. Short-term Price Drivers - The recent price increase is supported by three main factors: 1. Global aluminum inventories are at low levels, with coverage days decreasing from approximately 50 days in 2023 to 46 days in 2025, which supports spot premiums and bullish market expectations [4]. 2. There are concerns regarding the power supply capabilities of Indonesia's new aluminum smelting capacity, which may not meet production expectations, reinforcing supply tightness [4]. 3. Rapid growth in the renewable energy sector, particularly in electric vehicles and grid construction, has significantly boosted end-user demand for aluminum, providing strong fundamental support for prices [4]. Long-term Bearish Logic - Goldman Sachs highlights a long-term bearish outlook due to accelerated supply release and slowing demand growth: 1. Indonesia is becoming a key player in global aluminum capacity expansion, with expected production increases of 725,000 tons in 2026 and 900,000 tons in 2027, reaching a total of 4.25 million tons by 2030 [6]. 2. Other regions, including Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, and Angola, are also expected to gradually release smelting capacity after 2027, while China is projected to increase its primary aluminum production to 46.2 million tons by 2029 [6]. Demand-side Pressures - The demand side faces structural pressures: 1. Aluminum demand in the photovoltaic sector is expected to decline year-on-year in 2026-2027, with the unit aluminum intensity of photovoltaic components projected to decrease from 7.3 tons/MW in 2025 to 5.1 tons/MW by 2030 [9]. 2. Although electric vehicles use more aluminum per unit, the global production and sales growth forecasts for electric vehicles have been downgraded, leading to lower-than-expected demand support for aluminum [9]. Global Supply Chain Transformation - The Chinese aluminum smelting industry is driving structural changes in the global supply landscape through systematic output of technology and models, significantly reducing construction costs and improving efficiency [10][13]. - This efficient capacity expansion model is rapidly being implemented in Southeast Asian countries like Indonesia and Vietnam, which may continue to exert downward pressure on the long-term equilibrium level of global aluminum prices, similar to the impact of China's domestic capacity expansion from 2007 to 2025 [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For caustic soda, it is in low - level oscillation in the short - term. In the long - term, it is necessary to focus on the demand increment brought by the new alumina production capacity. If it is successfully put into production, consider going long at low prices [23][24] - For alumina, it is in low - level oscillation in the short - term. For Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, they are in high - level oscillation in the short - term. In the long - term, in a quantitative easing environment, Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy will oscillate strongly, while alumina will oscillate widely at a low level without large - scale production cuts [26][27] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Industry Chain Related Products Futures and Spot Prices and Basis Trends - The report presents the trends of domestic alumina, aluminum, caustic soda, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot prices and their basis through charts [4] Caustic Soda Supply Side - As of January 23, the weekly operating rate of caustic soda enterprises was 87.7%, a 1% increase from the previous week, and the weekly output was 863,000 tons, a 10,000 - ton increase from the previous week. The weekly inventory was 509,600 tons, a 2,500 - ton decrease from the previous week, showing a narrow de - stocking but still at a high level [8] Aluminum Raw Material Supply Side - As of January 23, the bauxite port inventory was 24.5 million tons, an increase of 482,400 tons from the previous week. As of the end of December, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants was 24.66 million tons, a 2.07% increase from the previous month and a 12.55% increase from the same period last year, at a historical high [10][11] Alumina Supply Side - As of January 23, the weekly operating rate of alumina enterprises was 85.18%, a 0.65 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week, and the weekly output was 1.839 million tons, a 14,000 - ton decrease from the previous week. The total inventory was 5.487 million tons, an increase of 94,000 tons from the previous week [14] Electrolytic Aluminum Supply Side - As of the end of December, China's primary aluminum production was 3,767,000 tons, and the import volume was 189,200 tons. The operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry was 98.3%, remaining at a high level. As of the end of November, the inventory was 595,000 tons [17] Main Inventory Trends of Three Major Aluminum Exchanges - As of January 23, the LME aluminum inventory was 509,300 tons, an increase of 21,275 tons from last Friday. The SHFE aluminum inventory was 197,100 tons, an increase of 11,200 tons from last Friday. The COMEX aluminum inventory was 5,449 tons, a decrease of 989 tons from the previous week. Overall, the electrolytic aluminum inventory of the three major global exchanges continued to accumulate this week [21][22] Strategy Recommendations Caustic Soda - This week, the caustic soda futures price continued to decline. As of Friday afternoon, the closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 1,945 yuan/ton, a 3.04% decrease from last Friday. The spot price changed little. As of January 23, the converted price of 32% liquid caustic soda was 2,330 yuan/ton, a 0.21% decrease from last Friday. In the short - term, it is in low - level oscillation. In the long - term, pay attention to the demand increment brought by the new alumina production capacity [23][24] Alumina, Shanghai Aluminum, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - This week, the futures prices of alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and cast aluminum alloy basically maintained an oscillating trend. As of Friday afternoon, the closing price of the main alumina contract was 2,724 yuan/ton, a 0.98% decrease from last Friday; the closing price of the main Shanghai aluminum contract was 24,290 yuan/ton, a 1.53% increase from last Friday; the closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract was 22,995 yuan/ton, a 1.14% increase from last Friday. In the short - term, alumina is in low - level oscillation, and Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are in high - level oscillation. In the long - term, Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy will oscillate strongly in a quantitative easing environment, while alumina will oscillate widely at a low level without large - scale production cuts [26][27]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：金十期货 1． 近期供应动态：据SMM，1月22日报道，力拓集团将于2026年10月起将澳大利亚Yarwun氧化铝厂产 量削减40%（约减少120万吨/年），以延长运营寿命及进行现代化改造方案探索。 2． 产量数据：国家统计局数据显示，2025年12月中国电解铝产量387.4万吨，同比增长3.0%；Mysteel 调研数据显示，当月中国原铝日均产量12.35万吨，环比增加0.06万吨；国际铝业协会（IAI）数据显 示，当月全球原铝产量为629.6万吨。 3． 市场结构：据外媒报道，受冶炼厂关闭及欧盟碳关税影响，欧盟原铝产量降至95万吨，结构性缺口 高达93%。 4． 德意志银行观点：预计铝价有望在第二季度达到3100美元/吨的年内高点，全年均价约为2925美元/ 吨。 5． 银河期货观点：本周关注美联储决议。供应端某30万吨产能预计3月下旬复产，带动全球短缺收 窄。铝价受金融属性影响较大，需维持高利润刺激供应。 6． 南华期货观点：内蒙和新疆新增产能释放，叠加春节前消费边际走弱，本周累库逻辑未变。短期避 险情绪提振价格震荡偏强，长期供需缺 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market is rising, particularly in aluminum, which saw a significant price increase, reaching a historical high of 25,500 yuan/ton on January 28 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On January 28, funds flowed into Shanghai aluminum futures, leading to a price surge of over 5% [1] - The stock market also reflected this trend, with major resource companies, including China Aluminum, hitting a 10% limit-up, marking a historical high [1] Group 2: Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs raised its aluminum price forecast for the first half of the year from $2,575 per ton to $3,150 per ton, citing low global inventories, concerns over power supply for new smelters in Indonesia, and strong global demand [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - Gu Fengda, chief analyst at Guosen Futures, noted that the non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing high volatility, with aluminum prices rising sharply, indicating a strategic bet in the financial market [1] - The concept of "substituting aluminum for copper" is expected to drive long-term demand growth for aluminum, despite the copper-aluminum ratio currently being at a historically high level of around 4.2 [1] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The financial market's bullish positioning on aluminum has significantly increased, suggesting a need for caution regarding actual downstream demand when assessing aluminum price fluctuations [1] - It is recommended to maintain a bullish offensive while controlling positions to mitigate risks associated with market volatility before the sensitive period of the Spring Festival [1]

Group 1 - Aluminum stocks rose in the afternoon, with China Aluminum (02600) increasing by 12.20% to HKD 15.14 [1][3] - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) saw an increase of 8.11%, reaching HKD 72.65 [1][3] - China Hongqiao (01378) rose by 6.56%, trading at HKD 39.94 [1][3] - Innovation Industry (02788) experienced a 3.36% increase, priced at HKD 28.30 [1][3]

Group 1 - The aluminum sector in Hong Kong has seen a significant rise, with notable increases in stock prices for several companies [1] - China Aluminum (02600.HK) experienced a surge of 13.32%, reaching HKD 15.14 [1] - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610.HK) rose by 7.74%, trading at HKD 72.4 [1] - China Hongqiao (01378.HK) increased by 6.99%, with a price of HKD 40.1 [1] - Innovation Industry (02788.HK) saw a gain of 2.78%, priced at HKD 28.14 [1]

Group 1 - Aluminum stocks have risen significantly, with China Aluminum (601600) up 13.32% to HKD 15.14, Nanshan Aluminum (600219) International up 7.74% to HKD 72.4, China Hongqiao (01378) up 6.99% to HKD 40.1, and Innovation Industry (02788) up 2.78% to HKD 28.14 [1] - The recent decline of the US dollar to a four-month low, influenced by Trump's comments and expectations of intervention in the currency market by Japan and the US, has led to aluminum prices reaching a nearly four-year high [1] - According to a recent report by Industrial Securities, aluminum is entering a tight supply cycle, supported by low inventory levels, which is expected to elevate the price center of aluminum [1] Group 2 - Chinese electrolytic aluminum companies are becoming globally competitive and are converting industry dividends into shareholder returns [1] - The report anticipates that a 10% increase in aluminum prices could lead to approximately a 30% increase in EPS, indicating a positive correlation between quality and cycle [1] - The report recommends China Hongqiao and China Aluminum, while also suggesting to pay attention to Innovation Industry and Nanshan Aluminum International [1]

Group 1 - Aluminum stocks have risen significantly, with China Aluminum (02600) up 13.32% to HKD 15.14, Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) up 7.74% to HKD 72.4, China Hongqiao (01378) up 6.99% to HKD 40.1, and Innovation Industry (02788) up 2.78% to HKD 28.14 [1] - The decline of the US dollar to a four-month low, influenced by Trump's comments and expectations of intervention in the foreign exchange market by Japan and the US, has led to aluminum prices reaching a nearly four-year high [1] - According to a recent report by Industrial Securities, aluminum is entering a tight supply cycle, supported by low inventory levels, which is expected to elevate the price center of aluminum [1] Group 2 - Chinese electrolytic aluminum companies are becoming globally competitive and are converting industry dividends into shareholder returns [1] - The expectation of rising aluminum prices is strong, with a 10% increase in aluminum prices projected to enhance EPS by approximately 30% [1] - The quality and cycle resonance in the industry suggests a positive revaluation of the electrolytic aluminum sector, with recommendations for China Hongqiao and China Aluminum, and attention on Innovation Industry and Nanshan Aluminum International [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rally in Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong, particularly those categorized as "Chinese concept stocks" [1] Group 2 - China Aluminum's H-shares surged over 11% [1] - Sinopec Oilfield Services' H-shares increased by more than 13% [1] - China Railway's shares rose by over 8% [1] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation and PetroChina both saw their shares rise by more than 5% [1] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation and China Shenhua Energy experienced an increase of over 3% in their stock prices [1]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-28 铝现货贴水扩大 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价23870元/吨，较上一交易日变化-160元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-170元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价23760元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-30元/吨至-280元/ 吨；佛山A00铝价录23870元/吨，较上一交易日变化-200元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-45元/吨至-165 元/吨。 电解铝：铝价呈现高位上涨乏力走势，现货贴水持续扩大，社会库存持续累库。绝对价格的上涨出现向下传导不 畅，下游进入消费淡季，开工率及产量环比继续回落，下游或提前进入春节假期。今年春节较晚，当前累库节点 较早，前期累库速度较快，微观数据对价格形成压力。长期宏观仍然成为主导价格长期上涨的逻辑，国内依旧适 度宽松的货币政策，海外仍存消费韧性，海外现货升水仍在走强。短期呈现抑制消费的情况，铝价存在回调修复 需求。 氧化铝：氧化铝企业出现了较多检修情况，一方面从时间周期看到了检修周期，另一方面则因为现货销售压力较 铝期货方面：2026-01-27日沪铝主力合约开于24400元/吨，收于 ...