转自：新华财经 •上海市经济和信息化委员会等部门印发《上海高级别自动驾驶引领区"模速智行"行动计划》。其中提到，按照"模型驱动引领、应用示范带动、产业协同发 展、政策举措支撑"的总体思路，推动自动驾驶技术创新向产业竞争力加速转化。到2027年，高级别自动驾驶应用场景实现规模化落地，公共服务平台有力 支撑行业创新，关键技术和产业规模达到国际领先水平，形成具有国际竞争力和影响力的智能网联汽车产业集群，基本建成全球领先的高级别自动驾驶引领 区。（新华财经） •从80%上调至100% 沪深北交易所调整融资保证金比例 促进市场长期健康发展 •三部门部署规范新能源汽车产业竞争秩序相关工作 坚决抵制无序"价格战" 加强成本调查和价格监测 •财政部、税务总局、住房城乡建设部：延续实施支持居民换购住房有关个人所得税政策 •财政部、国家税务总局、住房城乡建设部1月14日对外发布公告称，自2026年1月1日至2027年12月31日，对出售自有住房并在现住房出售后1年内在市场重 新购买住房的纳税人，对其出售现住房已缴纳的个人所得税予以退税优惠。根据公告，享受优惠政策的纳税人须同时满足以下条件：纳税人出售和重新购买 的住房应在同一城市 ...

大家早上壕！ 先看海外要闻： 三大美股指进入2026年来首次两连跌，其中纳指跌1%、创近一个月最大跌幅；收盘标普500跌 0.53%，道指跌0.09%，纳指跌1.00%。 科技股拖垮大盘，"科技七巨头"齐收跌，微软、亚马逊、Meta跌超2%；芯片指数止步三连涨，博通 跌超4%；尽管四季度业绩优于预期，美国银行和花旗仍分别收跌近4%和超3%，四季度利润逊色的富 国银行跌超4%。 原油盘中跳水：特朗普言论似乎传递美伊局势缓和信号，盘中曾涨约2%的原油一度跌超3%。 消息称SK海力士停产消费级存储器，资源转向B2B与AI服务器市场。 PCB关键原材料玻纤布供应紧张，苹果等巨头寻求替代供应商。 美国拟于2月实施载人绕月飞行任务。 马斯克宣布：特斯拉将在2月14日后停售FSD买断版，仅以月度订阅方式提供。 OpenAI豪掷百亿美元，联手Cerebras三年部署750兆瓦算力。 OpenAI与Anthropic被爆采取初步行动，SpaceX已洽谈多家银行。霍尼韦尔：旗下量子计算公司 Quantinuum计划在美提交IPO申请。 OpenAI首席执行官奥尔特曼与前苹果设计总监Jony Ive将推出一款对标苹果AirPods ...

美联储发布褐皮书。 当地时间1月14日（周三），美股三大指数录得连续第二个交易日下滑。交易员正在消化最新一批银行企业财报。 截至收盘，道指跌42.36点，跌幅为0.09%，报49149.63点；纳指跌238.12点，跌幅为1.00%，报23471.75点；标普500指数跌37.14点，跌幅为0.53%，报 6926.60点。 美联储发布经济状况"褐皮书" 据央视新闻，当地时间1月14日，美联储发布全国经济形势调查报告（也称"褐皮书"）。 褐皮书显示，在12个联邦储备区中，有8个地区的整体经济活动以轻微至温和的速度增长，3个地区报告没有变化，1个地区报告温和下降。这比过去三个 报告周期有所改善，此前大多数地区报告经济活动变化不大。褐皮书显示，对未来活动的展望略显乐观，多数地区预计未来数月将实现小幅至适度增长。 "假设到了今年下半年，情况会怎样？如果有了新的美联储主席，也许美联储应该加息，或者肯定不应该降息，因为经济已经趋于平稳，而通胀又回升 了。"格拉夫说，"交易员会对此感到担忧。" 科技股拖累大盘 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块六涨五跌。能源板块和必需消费品板块分别以2.26%和1.18%的涨幅领涨，非必 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：三思期权） 本文改编自在三思门知识星球周日发布的《每周小结》系列。在星球里，这个栏目已经坚持更新了两年 多，超过100期的内容，记录了一线交易员对宏观市场的实战观察和思考。这里的版本会更轻松、更通 俗，方便更多朋友理解。如果你想要更硬核、更专业的内容，欢迎到知识星球里看完整版。 开篇引子： 如果只看指数，这段时间的市场其实挺"省心"。 数据没崩，波动不大，情绪也不算极端，看起来像是一个可以顺着趋势慢慢熬的环境。但越是这种时 候，越容易忽略一些正在发生、但还没被市场认真定价的变化。这一期，我想做的不是给市场贴一 个"看多"或"看空"的标签，而是把最近几条看似零散的线索放在一起，看看市场现在到底在交易什么， 又忽略了什么。 基本面：数据不差，但结构已经很清楚了 从宏观基本面来看，除了日本之外，最近全球其他主要经济体的变化其实并不大。美国这周的数据不 少，但拼在一起看，结论并不复杂。 制造业依然在荣枯线下方挣扎，而服务业则明显偏强。这种组合我们已经看了很久，本质上就是美国经 济没有二次加速，但也远谈不上衰退。非农数据表面偏弱，但失业率继续下行，反映出的依旧是那个熟 悉的状态：企业不扩张，也不 ...

博通、亚马逊跌超4%。 *三大股指连续下挫，纳指跌1%； *中长期美债收益率下跌，10年期美债跌超3个基点； 【热门股表现】 大型银行股延续低迷，富国银行跌4.6%，花旗、美银跌超3%。富国银行公布的第四季度财报显示，受 投行业务疲软拖累，该行营收未达市场预期。花旗集团四季度净利润同比下滑，营收则实现同比增长。 此前，摩根大通高管曾警告称，拟议的信用卡利率上限或将挤压消费者利益，并对整个金融行业的盈利 能力造成损害。 明星科技股全军覆没，谷歌跌不到0.1%，苹果跌0.4%，英伟达跌1.4%，特斯拉跌1.8%，微软和亚马逊 跌2.4%，Meta跌2.5%，博通跌4.2%，主要受网络安全软件应用受限利空影响，甲骨文跌4.3%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.2%，阿里巴巴涨1.7%，百度涨0.7%，京东跌0.2%，网易跌2.7%，拼多多跌 3.9%，受反垄断调查影响，携程重挫17.1%。 【市场概述】 经济数据方面，美国商务部周三公布的数据显示，美国11月零售销售额环比增长0.6%，为去年7月以来 新高，市场预期为0.4%。剔除汽车销售额后，核心零售销售额增长0.5%。13个类别中有10个类别实现 了增长，包括体育用 ...

Focus Events - Some large and medium-sized brokerages have exhausted their margin financing funds, despite many brokerages raising the upper limit of margin financing last year. The current market sentiment is high, and the willingness to finance is unprecedented, leading to a situation where not only one brokerage's margin financing quota is no longer sufficient, but brokerages may also intentionally slow down liquidity release for risk control considerations [1] Company Focus - Qifu Life Service Holdings Limited announced the completion of the sale of 280,000 ounces of unallocated silver bars, receiving approximately RMB 161.7 million. This follows a previous announcement on January 9, where the company sold 400,000 ounces for about RMB 226.2 million. In total, Qifu has sold 21.15 tons of silver, generating proceeds of RMB 388 million [3] - CITIC Securities expects to achieve an operating income of RMB 74.83 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28.75%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 30.05 billion, up 38.46% [19] - Aerospace Hongtu has disclosed a pre-loss announcement, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders to be negative for the 2025 fiscal year [21] - Hu Silicon Industry has released a 2025 annual performance forecast, expecting a net loss of RMB 1.28 billion to RMB 1.53 billion, widening from a loss of RMB 971 million in the previous year [23] - Dayou Energy announced an expected net loss of RMB 1.7 billion for 2025, which represents an increase in loss of approximately RMB 609 million compared to the previous year [24] - CITIC Bank reported total assets of RMB 10.131658 trillion by the end of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.28%. The bank achieved a net profit of RMB 70.62 billion, up 2.98% from the previous year [26] - Wuzhong Development disclosed a major asset restructuring plan, proposing to exchange its main assets and liabilities with its controlling shareholder, Wuzhong Co., for 100% equity of Wuzhong Mining and 100% equity of Luzhong Mining [28] - Huibo Technology announced that its controlling shareholder plans to transfer 341 million shares, representing 25.6% of the total share capital, to Tianjin Baili Machinery Equipment Group Co., Ltd. The transfer price is approximately RMB 1.175 billion [29] Industry Dynamics - The U.S. announced a 25% import tariff on certain semiconductors and related products starting January 15 [14] - The China Automobile Industry Association predicts that total automobile sales in 2026 will reach 34.75 million units, with new energy vehicle sales expected to be 19 million units [14] - A meeting was held by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments to discuss the regulation of competition in the new energy vehicle industry, emphasizing the need to resist disorderly price wars [14] - Huawei regained the top position in China's smartphone market share, with the latest IDC report indicating that Huawei led the market in 2025 [17]

Market Data - As of January 14, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.31% to 4126.09 points, while the STAR 50 Index rose by 2.13% to 1500.91 points [1] - The New York stock market saw declines on January 14, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 42.36 points (0.09%) to 49149.63 points, the S&P 500 down 37.14 points (0.53%) to 6926.60 points, and the Nasdaq down 238.12 points (1.00%) to 23471.75 points [1] - International oil prices increased on January 14, with light crude oil futures for February rising by $0.87 to $62.02 per barrel (1.42% increase) and Brent crude for March rising by $1.05 to $66.52 per barrel (1.6% increase) [1] Economic News - China's total foreign trade value for December 2025 reached $601.42 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with exports at $357.78 billion (6.6% increase) and imports at $243.64 billion (5.7% increase) [2] - For the entire year of 2025, China's foreign trade value was $6.35 trillion, a 3.2% increase year-on-year, with exports at $3.77 trillion (5.5% increase) and imports at $2.58 trillion (no change) [2] - The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced a tax refund policy for individuals selling their homes and purchasing new ones within a year, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [3] - The People's Bank of China announced a reverse repurchase operation of 900 billion yuan to maintain liquidity in the banking system, scheduled for January 15 [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to regulate competition in the new energy vehicle industry, emphasizing innovation and quality while resisting price wars [4] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced an increase in the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100%, aimed at reducing leverage and protecting investor rights [5] - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 34 million units, with new energy vehicles accounting for over 50% of domestic sales [7] Industry Developments - The National Medical Products Administration announced the results of a centralized procurement for high-value medical consumables, with 202 companies winning bids for 440 products [8] - A joint action plan for high-level autonomous driving in Shanghai aims for large-scale implementation by 2027, focusing on innovation and international competitiveness in the smart connected vehicle industry [8] - Ctrip Group is under investigation for alleged monopolistic practices by the State Administration for Market Regulation, with the company cooperating with the investigation [8] - The Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau is investigating Sunflower Health Technology Co., Ltd. for misleading statements in its restructuring plan [8]

在我们2021年4月15日发布的专题报告 《股指分红点位测算方法全解析》 中，针对股指分红点位测算的各个部分进行了精细化处理，并对股指分红点位测算准确度 进行了介绍。从本周开始，我们将对股指期货的升贴水水平进行定期跟踪，在扣除分红影响后，对股指期货每日基差、主力合约升贴水走势、不同合约的基差期限 结构及当前基差在历史分位点水平等方面进行跟踪，以供投资者参考。 一 股指期货升贴水情况跟踪 表1展示了基于2026年1月14日收盘后的数据测算得到的指数分红点位，其中： 上证50指数中，有1家公司处于预案阶段，0家公司处于决案阶段，0家公司进入实施阶段，0家公司已分红，3家公司不分红； 沪深300指数中，有1家公司处于预案阶段，0家公司处于决案阶段，0家公司进入实施阶段，0家公司已分红，26家公司不分红； 中证500指数中，有1家公司处于预案阶段，0家公司处于决案阶段，0家公司进入实施阶段，0家公司已分红，63家公司不分红； 中证1000指数中，有1家公司处于预案阶段，0家公司处于决案阶段，0家公司进入实施阶段，0家公司已分红，187家公司不分红。 | | | | | | 上证50 | | | | | | | --- ...

从外部看，地缘政治的阴云不仅没有散去，反而在增加新的变数。从伊朗局势到围绕格陵兰的争议言 论，这些不确定性持续扰动市场神经。更值得关注的是，对美联储独立性的深层担忧，已经从黄金市场 蔓延到了整个风险资产。当投资者开始严肃讨论"如果更换美联储主席，政策是否会转向"这类问题时， 其影响远比一两个经济数据深远得多。 那么，这种内外交困的局面，是否意味着美股的趋势已经逆转？作为中长线投资者，我们又该如何应 对？帮主的观点是，这轮下跌更像是市场在历史高位的一次"压力测试"和"预期重置"。它测试的是，在 流动性边际变化、地缘风险上升的背景下，当前的企业盈利和估值是否还能站得住脚。 我的策略建议是： 各位朋友，美股市场刚刚录得了连续第二个交易日的下跌。如果你觉得这仅仅是技术性调整，那可能低 估了盘面下暗流的复杂性。大家好，我是帮主郑重。当道指、纳指、标普500三大指数齐齐收绿，尤其 是纳斯达克指数跌幅达到1%时，我们需要看清楚，究竟是哪几股力量在同时拉扯市场。 这次下跌，可以说是遭遇了"内忧外患"的双重夹击。从内部看，最新开启的银行财报季，给市场情绪浇 了一盆冷水。富国银行因为收入不及预期，股价大跌4.6%；而即便像美国银 ...

Core Insights - The rising gold prices have sparked a surge in demand for bank safe deposit boxes, leading to a situation where they are in high demand but low supply [1][4][12] - Many banks in Beijing report that all safe deposit boxes are currently rented out, with waiting lists exceeding 100 customers at some locations [2][10] - The demand for safe deposit boxes is driven by increased interest in gold investments, as geopolitical risks continue to elevate the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [4][12] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for safe deposit boxes has significantly increased, with banks reporting a notable rise in inquiries since last year [4][12] - Banks are struggling to keep up with the demand, as the supply of safe deposit boxes has not increased in tandem, leading to a shortage [6][15] - Some banks have ceased offering safe deposit box services altogether due to high maintenance costs and low profitability [15][16] Pricing and Features - Different banks offer various sizes and pricing structures for safe deposit boxes, with significant variations in rental fees [3][11] - For example, at China Merchants Bank, the smallest box has a monthly rental fee of 50 yuan, while larger boxes can cost up to 42,000 yuan annually [11] - Postal Savings Bank offers a fully automated safe deposit box with advanced security features, including 24-hour monitoring and multiple verification methods for access [5][13] Market Trends - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and expectations of continued low interest rates are expected to sustain the demand for gold and, consequently, safe deposit boxes [4][12] - Investors are increasingly looking for secure storage options for their gold investments, as concerns about home security grow [4][12] - Some banks are innovating their services, such as offering promotional deals for customers purchasing gold products, to attract more clients [16]