我问你个问题，如果你现在手上突然多了三十万现金，你会去买房，还是直接拿去吃喝玩乐？ 你别急着回答，我最近琢磨这事琢磨得挺多的。 有人会说房价低了可以抄底，有人说不动产抗通胀，还是资产保值的方式之一。但你仔细看看当下的现实，真的还有那么多人想把手上的钱 砸进楼市吗？再往远一点想，你有没有发现，现在的吃喝玩乐生意，突然变得特别香。 我查了一下数据，2024年全国社会消费品零售总额同比增长了7.2％，其中餐饮收入增长17.4％，文旅类消费更是爆发式上涨。据文化和旅游 部的数据，仅2024年五一假期，全国国内旅游出游合计2.95亿人次，同比增长28.2％。这些人都不是冲动型消费，他们过去几年都被房贷压得 不轻。 是的，这里面的关键是过去几年。 房地产确实曾是中国经济的发动机，但现在发动机快熄火了，甚至连油门都踩不下去了。 你要真去翻，早在2021年，住建部就提出房住不炒，但市场反应一直滞后。2023年开始，一线城市核心区域房价开始松动，杭州滨江、深圳 南山不少小区挂牌价每平米跌了上万。根据克而瑞发布的《2023年中国房地产企业销售TOP100排行榜》，百强房企全年销售同比下降 15.7%。更别提那些地方债压顶、开发商 ...

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 24 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年07月23日 华源晨会精粹 20250723 机械/建材建筑 雅江水电站开工，关注水电建设板块——建筑装饰行业周报：基建投 资延续平稳增长，电热气水保持高增长。2025 年上半年，全国基础设施投资整体延 续稳中有进态势。雅鲁藏布江超级水电工程开工，清洁能源与水工建设同步提速。7 月 19 日，总投资达 1.2 万亿元的雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程在西藏林芝正式开工。作 为"十四五"重点项目，工程核心为墨脱水电站，规划装机容量 7000 至 8100 万千 瓦，建成后年发电量有望达 3000 亿千瓦时，相当于三座三峡或五座白鹤滩，成为"西 电东送"新支点。本次工程启动标志我国在高原复杂地质条件下推进清洁能源开发 进入实质阶段，也将拉动大坝、隧洞、电站厂房等水工建筑施工全面提速。中央城 市工作会议召开，城镇化步入提质增效阶段。在增量建设趋缓、更新提速的背景下， 建筑行业有望在城市更新、绿色建造与基础设施升级等方向迎来系统性发展机遇。 风险提示：经济恢复不及预期，基建/地产投资增速不及 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a significant recovery in Hubei's real estate market, with new residential sales and second-hand housing transactions showing positive growth in the first half of 2025 [1][2][3] - In the first half of 2025, Hubei province's new residential sales area reached 25.147 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, while second-hand housing transactions totaled 12.214 million square meters, up 12.5% [1][2] - A total of 14 cities in Hubei reported positive growth in new housing sales, with 7 cities exceeding the provincial average growth rate [2] Group 2 - Hubei's government has implemented various policies to stimulate the housing market, including financial incentives for homebuyers and the construction of affordable housing [4][5] - The province has accumulated 328,000 units of affordable rental housing during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with over 230,000 units already in use [2] - In the first half of 2025, Hubei's new housing construction area was 13.161 million square meters, reflecting a 5.6% increase, marking four consecutive months of growth [2] Group 3 - Wuhan's real estate market showed robust performance, with a 14.8% year-on-year increase in new housing sales area, reaching 6.154 million square meters [4] - The average decommissioning cycle for new housing in Wuhan has decreased to 12 months, indicating a healthy turnover in the market [4] - IChang city reported a 12.69% year-on-year increase in new housing sales area in the first half of 2025, with significant financial support provided through housing subsidies [5]

供给侧"反内卷"与需求侧基建发力"双管齐下"，推动市场风险偏好回升。交易层面，大类资产的市场定 价程度及节奏呈现"商品>股市>债市"的特征。 不过，外部环境不确定性仍大。关税、地缘等扰动升温，但市场相对脱敏。7月7日，特朗普签署行政 令，将对非中美经济体的"对等关税"暂缓期延长至8月1日，并陆续向数十个国家和地区发送函件，宣布 新的关税税率将于8月1日生效。目前，达成或部分达成协议的有英国、日本、印尼、越南。后续看，关 税谈判进展不确定性仍大，且不排除反复的可能性。而从交易角度看，极端情况大概率已在4月出现， 市场反应钝化，"TACO"交易持续。关税对基本面的影响存在时滞，且取决于后续应对政策。 总体来看，重磅会议临近，市场对大规模增量政策的预期不高，关注"反内卷"、扩内需（消费及投 资）、城市更新政策的延续和强化。政策预期反转的概率较低，股市将维持震荡偏强走势，同时需关注 中报期业绩披露情况、中美谈判进展。期指交易上，建议顺势而为，适当持有多单。 （作者单位：广州期货） A股市场本轮上涨行情的核心驱动是政策预期升温带来市场风险偏好回升。7月以来政策密集发布，中 央政策框架明晰，主要聚焦以下方面： 一是"反内 ...

新华财经纽约7月23日电（记者刘亚南）受投资者对贸易谈判前景乐观预期和权重科技股上涨推动，纽 约股市三大股指23日高开，早盘窄幅盘整，午后涨幅扩大，收盘时纽约股市三大股指均明显上涨，标普 500指数和纳指收盘时均创下历史新高。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨507.85点，收于45010.29点，涨幅为1.14%；标 准普尔500种股票指数上涨49.29点，收于6358.91点，涨幅为0.78%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨127.33点， 收于21020.02点，涨幅为0.61%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块九涨二跌。医疗板块和工业板块分别以2.03%和1.75%的涨幅领涨， 公用事业板块和必需消费品板块分别下跌0.79%和0.07%。 摩根大通量化策略师Khuram Chaudhry带领的团队在23日表示，全球股市处于历史高点，但过去一个 月，全球上市公司盈利下调了14.3%，过去三个月的下调幅度为18.7%。 摩根大通分析师表示，今年下半年可能出现市场波动。 全美房地产经纪人协会当日上午发布的数据显示，美国6月份成屋销售年率为393万套，低于市场预期的 400万套和5月份向上修订后的4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Urban Work Conference emphasizes the need for a shift in urban development strategies, focusing on quality improvement and efficiency in existing urban areas rather than large-scale expansion, reflecting a transition in China's urbanization process from rapid growth to stable development [1][2]. Group 1: Urban Development Principles - The conference introduced "Five Transformations" as key principles for urban development, which include a human-centered approach, efficient and intensive development, emphasis on distinctive growth, increased governance investment, and coordinated methods [2]. - The rapid growth of the real estate sector is seen as a necessary outcome of the previous expansion phase, and the focus is now shifting towards updating existing urban structures rather than relying on real estate for financing [2][3]. Group 2: Real Estate Development Model - The meeting highlighted the need to accelerate the construction of a new real estate development model, which includes steady progress in the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing [2][3]. - The rental and purchase housing supply model has shown significant results in first and second-tier cities, with rental housing accounting for 10% to 15% of the market share and continuing to grow [2]. Group 3: Urban Village and Dilapidated Housing Renovation - The focus on urban village renovation is aimed at improving quality rather than large-scale demolition, with an emphasis on safety, public facilities, and social governance [4][5]. - The criteria for urban village renovation include the presence of safety hazards, mature renovation plans, and balanced funding, indicating a move away from the old model of large-scale demolition [4][6]. Group 4: Integration of New Citizens - The renovation efforts aim to integrate the 260 million migrants into urban life, providing them with affordable housing and access to public services, thereby enhancing urban vitality and consumption [5][6]. - The focus on improving living conditions in urban villages is expected to stabilize the housing market by addressing the needs of new citizens and enhancing their living environment [7]. Group 5: Urban Renewal as Growth Driver - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's guidelines for urban renewal projects provide a clear technical roadmap from planning to execution, indicating a structured approach to urban development [7]. - Financial and fiscal support for urban renewal is anticipated to stimulate new growth dynamics in cities, reinforcing the role of real estate as a pillar industry and a significant consumer market [7].

业内专家受访时表示，2024年以来A股呈现激烈波动、趋势收敛的特征，显示资金博弈激烈，市场情绪 主导短期定价。从中期的维度看，A股定价的有效性逐步显现。展望后市，市场乐观趋势预计仍将延 续。 多个指数创阶段新高 A股市场主要指数近期连续上行，并不断创出阶段新高。上证指数7月23日一度突破3600点整数关口， 盘中创出近9个多月新高；深证成指不仅创出年内新高，还创出近8个多月新高；创业板指数则创出近7 个多月新高。 A股市场强势格局持续演绎。7月23日尾盘虽出现一定波动，但当天盘中多个主要市场指数仍然创出阶 段新高。市场热度回暖，不仅主要市场指数频创阶段新高，市场成交额"水涨船高"，两融交易也趋向活 跃。不过值得注意的是，在市场整体上行的同时，结构性分化也比较明显。 此外，中证系列指数中，中证2000指数7月22日盘中创出该指数自2023年8月11日发布以来的新高；中证 1000指数7月23日盘中创出最近两年新高；中证500指数7月23日盘中不仅创出年内新高，还创出最近8个 多月新高。 在指数上涨的同时，市场成交额也"水涨船高"，呈现走高之势。数据显示，沪深京三市合计成交额日前 不断攀升，7月22日已突破1.9 ...

国务院《住房租赁条例》落地，许多人还在逐字逐句研究房东租客责任时，一场更深刻的变革信号已被高层会议悄然定调： 城镇化从快速增长转向稳定发展，城市发展从增量扩张转向存量提质增效。 短短两句话，终结房地产狂飙突进的时代幻想。 还攥着"2016年涨价去库存"老黄历、幻想下一轮暴涨会拍断大腿的人，该醒醒了。 房价普涨的时代，已被官方盖棺定论地画上句号。 存量市场的游戏规则已彻底改变：资产不再躺着升值，能勉强维持原价已是幸运。 地段、房龄、装修品质、甚至"情绪价值"都成为保值的必备筹码。看看日本就知道了，当房子不再好卖，极致的空间利用和人性化设计才会成为核心竞争 力。 而新条例中最值得警惕的关键词，是"存量增效"。 指向的是全国各地大量空置的商业办公楼、老旧厂房等"待盘活资产"。 当经济下行，这些资产成为烫手山芋。 条例第五条和第七条，就是为城投公司、地方平台甚至银行量身定制的出路：鼓励改造非住宅类建筑入市，同时设置严格的居住标准。 意味着什么？ 国家队即将大规模下场租房市场！ 标准化改造、统一运营管理、资金实力碾压…… 这些平台一旦入场，对散户型个人房东将是降维打击。 还抱着"卖不掉大不了出租"念头的多房持有者，就像 ...

司法实务中，以工程不动产协议折价方式行使和实现工程款优先受偿权，较司法拍卖更为简便易行，费 用低廉，有利于发挥发包人责任财产的最大效用，缓解发包人因财力不足造成工程款拖欠的实际困难。 此外，优先保护施工方权益意味着更好保护农民工群体的合法权益。 买房人向开发商支付了房款，但还没办下不动产权证，如果开发商因债务纠纷导致房屋被查封执行，买 房人该如何维护自身权益？ 最高人民法院23日发布《关于审理执行异议之诉案件适用法律问题的解释》（以下简称《解释》），对 于商品房消费者权益保护进行了细化，更大力度保护买房人的合法权益。《解释》自2025年7月24日起 施行。 以房抵债行使建设工程价款优先受偿权的，可以排除强制执行 【案情】建某公司完成建设施工并验收后，银某公司以承建工程中的13套房屋作价抵偿欠付的工程款。 此后，双方就上述房屋签订了商品房买卖合同，银某公司开具了销售不动产统一发票。然而，紫某公司 与银某公司等发生借款合同纠纷，紫某公司在诉讼中申请诉讼财产保全。受案法院裁定，查封包括案涉 13套房屋在内的房产、股权等财产。 【说法】工程价款优先受偿权是法律为保护建设工程承包人利益而赋予的特别权利。民法典规定，发包 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. real estate market is experiencing a significant disconnect, with home sales plummeting due to high borrowing costs and economic uncertainty, while home prices are reaching record highs [1][3] - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported a 2.7% year-over-year decline in existing home sales in June, totaling an annualized rate of 3.9 million units, the lowest since September of the previous year [1] - Despite the drop in sales, the median home price increased by 2% year-over-year to a record $435,300, indicating persistent high prices amid weak demand [1][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - A fundamental reason for high home prices is the prolonged supply shortage, as residential construction has not kept pace with population growth [3] - Although the inventory of homes for sale has increased recently, the sales slowdown has resulted in a supply level of 4.7 months, the highest since July 2016, failing to alleviate the supply-demand imbalance [3] - Many homeowners who locked in low mortgage rates during the pandemic are reluctant to sell, further constraining the supply of existing homes [3] Impact of High Interest Rates - Persistently high mortgage rates are a key factor suppressing sales activity, with many potential buyers unable to afford the current prices [5] - A brief decline in rates earlier in the year did not sustain, as rates rose again following economic announcements [5] - If mortgage rates were to drop to 6%, an estimated 160,000 renters could transition to first-time homebuyers, highlighting the sensitivity of demand to interest rate changes [5] Market Outlook - Economists generally foresee a bleak outlook for a recovery in the U.S. real estate market within the year, with expectations of continued stagnation [6] - Additional macroeconomic factors, such as high mortgage rates, affordability issues, a weak labor market, and uncertainty about future financial conditions, are contributing to the demand slowdown [7] - Potential policy changes, including proposals to eliminate capital gains tax on home sales, add further uncertainty to the market [7]