Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall situation of the industrial silicon market is complex, with a bearish fundamental outlook but some bullish factors in the market. The supply of industrial silicon is increasing, demand is weak, and cost support is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9505 - 9805 [6]. - The polysilicon market also shows a bearish fundamental outlook, with continuous increase in supply and continuous decline in demand. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48215 - 49995 [11]. - The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, while the bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon [14][15]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 77,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.67% [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 74,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.89%. The demand remained weak. Polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy ingot inventories were at high levels. The production of silicon wafers and battery cells was in a loss state, while the production of components was profitable. The comprehensive operating rate of organic silicon was 71.38%, unchanged from the previous period and higher than the historical average. The operating rate of recycled aluminum was 53.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37%, at a low level [6]. - Cost: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - containing 553 was 2,789 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season was weakening [6]. - Basis: On July 22, the spot price of non - oxygen - containing silicon in East China was 9,450 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 205 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 547,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72%; the inventory of sample enterprises was 173,050 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60%; the inventory of major ports was 120,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22% [6]. - Market: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and short positions increased [6]. - Expectation: The production schedule on the supply side is decreasing and remains at a low level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. Industrial silicon 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9505 - 9805 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 23,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.87%. The production schedule for July is predicted to be 106,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.74% compared with the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 11.1 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.47%. The inventory was 160,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.63%. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for July is 52.2 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 11.28% compared with the previous month. In June, the battery cell output was 56.19 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 6.73%. Last week, the inventory of battery cell external sales factories was 9.94 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 37.71%. Currently, production is in a loss state. The production schedule for July is 54.52 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97%. In June, the component output was 46.3 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 10.61%. It is expected that the component output in July will be 45.45 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.83%. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 51.73%. The European monthly inventory is 30.5 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 20.77%. Currently, component production is profitable [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 35,370 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 10,630 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 22, the price of N - type polysilicon was 44,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 3105 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [12]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 249,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.78%, at a high level in the same period of history [12]. - Market: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [12]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, and long positions increased [12]. - Expectation: The production schedule on the supply side continues to increase, and the demand on the demand side continues to decline. Overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support remains stable. Polysilicon 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48215 - 49995 [11]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial silicon: Provides detailed data on prices, basis, inventory, production, and cost - profit of industrial silicon, including futures contract prices, spot prices, basis, social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, port inventory, production in different regions, and cost - profit of different specifications [18]. - Polysilicon: Provides detailed data on prices, basis, inventory, production, and cost - profit of polysilicon, including futures contract prices, silicon wafer prices, battery cell prices, component prices, basis, inventory, production, and cost - profit [20]. Other Aspects - The report also provides a large amount of historical data and trend charts on the price, inventory, production, and cost of industrial silicon and its downstream products (organic silicon, aluminum alloy, polysilicon, etc.), as well as supply - demand balance tables, to help understand the market situation and development trends [22][25][30][35][39][42][45][47][50][53][56][63][66][69][72][75][78][81][83].

Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Overseas, the US dollar index continues to decline, and global risk appetite has generally increased. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stock indices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; government bonds are at a high level and volatile; commodities show different trends in different sectors [2]. Summary by Category Macro - finance - **General situation**: Overseas, the US dollar index and US bond yields are falling, and global risk appetite is rising. Domestically, economic growth is higher than expected in H1 but slows in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Assets**: Stock indices are volatile and slightly stronger, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Government bonds are at a high level and volatile, and cautious observation is advised. For commodities, black metals are expected to rebound from low levels, non - ferrous metals are expected to rebound, energy and chemicals are volatile, and precious metals are at a high level and volatile, with cautious long positions recommended for relevant sectors [2]. Stock Indices - **Market performance**: Driven by sectors such as hydropower, engineering machinery, and civil explosives and cement, the domestic stock market continues to rise [3]. - **Fundamentals and policy**: Economic growth in H1 is higher than expected, but consumption and investment slow down in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term macro - upward drivers are strengthened. Follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic policy implementation. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - **Market trend**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market continued to rise. Uncertainty before the August 1st tariff deadline and other factors support the strength of precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed down. The volatility of precious metals is expected to increase, and they are short - term strong. Gold's medium - and long - term upward support pattern remains unchanged, and its strategic allocation value is prominent [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Policy expectations are strengthened, and steel prices continue to rebound. The real demand is weak in the short term, and the demand for plates is stronger than that for building materials. Speculative demand has increased. The output of five major steel products has decreased, and cost support is strong. Short - term, it is recommended to view it with a volatile and slightly stronger mindset [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore rebounds. Under the policy expectation, the black metal sector rises, driving the iron ore price up. The steel demand is in the off - season, but steel mill profits are high. The iron ore supply and demand situation is complex, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron rebound slightly. The demand for ferroalloys has decreased. The cost of silicon manganese production in southern factories is high, and the production profit is low. The cost of silicon iron has increased slightly, and the production rhythm is stable. Short - term, the prices may follow the coal price rebound [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the soda ash main contract rises significantly. The supply is in an over - supply pattern, the demand is weak, and the profit has decreased. The "anti - involution" policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is suppressed by the supply - demand pattern. Short - term, the price is supported [8]. - **Glass**: The glass main contract price hits the daily limit. Supply pressure increases in the off - season, and there are expectations of production cuts. The terminal real estate demand is weak, and the profit has increased. The price is supported by the "anti - involution" policy [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The upcoming Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilizing plan boosts sentiment. The future copper price depends on the tariff implementation time, and there is uncertainty. Short - term, the plan is positive for copper prices [10]. - **Aluminum**: Fundamentally, it is weak in the near term. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document boosts market sentiment, but the actual impact is limited, and the increase is expected to be limited [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost has increased. The industry is in a loss state, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is better than expected, and the mine supply tends to be loose. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - term upside is restricted [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract rises significantly. The production has increased, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. Although the fundamentals have not improved, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the industrial silicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The "anti - involution" sentiment drives the re - pricing of the industry chain. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of the polysilicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The industry is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the market should pay attention to the margin adjustment [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: As the US trade negotiation deadline approaches, the oil price has fallen for three consecutive days. The market is waiting for the EU - US trade negotiation results [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has corrected. The demand in the peak season is average, and the inventory shows signs of accumulation. It is expected to follow the crude oil price and be in a weak and volatile state [15]. - **PX**: PX follows the upstream raw materials and is in a range - bound state. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [15]. - **PTA**: The spot is weak, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The price is driven by the "anti - involution" resonance but has limited upside. There is a risk of production cuts due to low processing fees [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is supported at a certain level. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber is slightly lower, following the polyester sector. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high. It is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern [16]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang has risen and then fallen slightly. The supply has increased, and the demand has decreased. The price is short - term strong under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, but the upside is limited [17][18]. - **PP**: The PP price is slightly adjusted. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - and long - term, and the upside is limited [18]. - **PL**: The propylene futures are newly listed, and the price is affected by market sentiment. Fundamentally, the supply pressure is large, and the price increase driver is limited [18]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE is adjusted. The import arbitrage window is open, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price may rebound in the short - term but has limited upside and is expected to decline in the medium - and long - term [19]. - **Urea**: The urea price has risen with the market sentiment. Fundamentally, the demand is weakening, and the supply is loose. The price is expected to rise in the short - term but be under pressure in the medium - and long - term [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans is under pressure due to weather conditions. After a short - term heatwave, there are expected to be showers, which may limit crop stress [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean meal is expected to have a pattern of inventory accumulation and weak basis. The rapeseed meal consumption is far below expectations, and the inventory is slow to decline. The short - term market is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern [21][22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil has high inventory pressure, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season. The rapeseed oil has high port inventory and slow circulation. The palm oil is the dominant factor in the market. The soybean - palm oil price difference may widen [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The inventory of palm oil has increased, and the futures price has risen. The short - term market is bullish, but the resistance to price increases has increased. The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the export improvement is less than expected [22].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily morning observation of non - ferrous and precious metals on July 22, 2025, covering multiple metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, etc. [1][2] Group 2: Precious Metals Market Review - London gold reached a five - week high, closing up 1.4% at $3396.67 per ounce; London silver hit a one - week high, closing up 1.97% at $38.897 per ounce. Affected by the overseas market, Shanghai gold futures rose 0.76% to 785.76 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose 1.85% to 9420 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index fell 0.64% to 97.853, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.3802%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar strengthened, rising 0.07% to 7.1707. [2] Important Information - EU diplomats are exploring broader counter - measures against US tariffs but prefer negotiation; the US Treasury Secretary is more concerned about high - quality deals; Indonesia's 19% US tariff may take effect by August 1. A US Republican congressman accused Powell of perjury, and the Fed added a video tour of its headquarters renovation on its website. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 97.4% and in September is 41.4%. [2] Logic Analysis - With the approaching of reciprocal tariffs, market concerns resurfaced. Trump's pressure on Powell also increased market unease and loosened the expectation of the Fed maintaining high rates. [2] Trading Strategy - For the precious metals market, consider holding long positions for the unilateral strategy, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options. [4] Group 3: Copper Market Review - The night - session of SHFE copper 2508 contract closed at 79770 yuan per ton, up 0.64%, and the SHFE copper index added 689 lots to 514,000 lots. LME copper closed at $9867 per ton, up 0.74%. LME inventory increased by 100 tons to 122,000 tons, and COMEX inventory rose by 1023 tons to 248,000 tons. [6] Important Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a growth - stabilizing plan for ten key industries. In June 2025, China's refined copper imports were 337,000 tons, up 15.15% month - on - month and 9.23% year - on - year; scrap copper imports were 183,244.238 tons, down 1.06% month - on - month but up 8.49% year - on - year. [6] Logic Analysis - The expected supply - side reform boosts market sentiment, but the current consumption is in the off - season, and the upside of copper prices is limited. [8][9] Trading Strategy - For copper, the short - term price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions for the unilateral strategy, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options. [12] Group 4: Alumina Market Review - The night - session of alumina 2509 contract rose 118 yuan to 3430 yuan per ton, up 3.56%. Spot prices in different regions also increased. The price of thermal coal at Jinzheng Northern Port also went up. [11] Important Information - The government will promote the construction of a unified national market and eliminate backward production capacity. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a growth - stabilizing plan for key industries. An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for 10,000 tons of alumina, and the winning bid price was 3430 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan from last week. The alumina warehouse receipts on the SHFE were 6922 tons, unchanged from the previous day. A large - scale alumina enterprise in Shandong resumed production after maintenance, and a company in Guizhou will have a 10 - day maintenance. As of Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 112.92 million tons, with 93.85 million tons in operation, up 300,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 83.1%. [11][14][15] Logic Analysis - The expected policy of eliminating backward production capacity and low warehouse receipts drive up the futures price. The supply - demand of alumina remains in a tight balance, and attention should be paid to the import market after the futures price rises. [16] Trading Strategy - For alumina, the short - term price is expected to be strong but volatile. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high for the unilateral strategy, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options. [17] Group 5: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session of SHFE aluminum 2508 contract rose 100 yuan per ton to 20880 yuan per ton. On July 21, the spot prices in East, South, and Central China all increased. [19] Important Information - The national aluminum ingot inventory increased by 9000 tons from last Thursday. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 2804 tons to 63744 tons on July 21. From January to June, the completed floor area of housing decreased by 14.8%, and in June, it decreased by 2.15% year - on - year. New US tariffs may take effect in early August, and the EU is considering counter - measures. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a growth - stabilizing plan for key industries. In June, the export of aluminum products decreased, and the import of aluminum ingots decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. On July 20, a 50,000 - ton capacity of an electrolytic aluminum project in Baise entered the restart stage. [20][21][22] Logic Analysis - The new US tariffs in early August bring uncertainty, and domestic policy expectations are also a factor. The negative feedback in the fundamentals continues, but the demand in the off - season may not be too weak, and the market's optimistic sentiment about the domestic policy of eliminating backward production capacity supports the aluminum price. [22] Trading Strategy - For electrolytic aluminum, the short - term price is expected to be strong and volatile, and it is recommended to go long on dips for the unilateral strategy, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options. [23] Group 6: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session of cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 120 yuan to 20220 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions all increased. [25] Important Information - In June 2025, the weighted average full cost of the Chinese cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry was 19551 yuan per ton, up 14 yuan from May. The industry had a theoretical loss of 41 yuan per ton. As of July 17, the weekly output of cast aluminum alloy increased by 2300 tons to 142,500 tons, and the weekly output of ADC12 increased by 4000 tons to 79,400 tons. [26] Logic Analysis - The supply of alloy ingot enterprises is restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and the demand is supported by motorcycle parts orders but weak in automobile parts orders. The futures price is mainly affected by the cost and aluminum price, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunity between the spot and futures. [26] Trading Strategy - For cast aluminum alloy, the price is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is recommended to consider spot - futures arbitrage when the price difference is above 300 - 400 yuan for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options. [27] Group 7: Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc market rose 0.73% to $2844.5 per ton, and the SHFE zinc 2509 contract rose 0.39% to 22875 yuan per ton. The SHFE zinc index position decreased by 1896 lots to 236,500 lots. The spot market was weak, with low trading volume. [29] Important Information - As of July 21, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 92,700 tons, down 40 tons from July 14 and 80 tons from July 17. In June 2025, the import of zinc concentrates was 330,000 tons, down 32.87% month - on - month but up 22.42% year - on - year; the import of refined zinc was 36,100 tons, up 34.98% month - on - month and 3.24% year - on - year; the export of refined zinc was 1900 tons, with a net import of 34,100 tons. The export of galvanized sheets and die - cast zinc alloys increased, while the export of zinc oxide increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. [30][32][33] Logic Analysis - The zinc price may rebound in the short - term due to macro and capital factors, but in the long - term, the supply of zinc ore is sufficient, the supply of refined zinc is expected to increase, and the consumption is in the off - season, so the domestic social inventory may continue to accumulate. [33] Trading Strategy - For zinc, the short - term price may be strong, and it is recommended to go long in the short - term. After the macro sentiment fades, consider shorting at high prices according to the inventory accumulation. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options. [34] Group 8: Lead Market Review - The LME lead market rose 0.17% to $2015 per ton, and the SHFE lead 2509 contract rose 0.18% to 16995 yuan per ton. The SHFE lead index position decreased by 351 lots to 98,500 lots. The spot price of SMM1 lead increased by 100 yuan per ton, and the transaction improved. [37] Important Information - As of July 21, the SMM five - region lead ingot inventory was 71,300 tons, up 7900 tons from July 14 and 2300 tons from July 17. A large - scale secondary lead smelter in North China will resume production in early August, affecting the July output by about 2000 tons. In June 2025, the import of lead - acid batteries was 486,100 units, up 14.73% month - on - month and 8.51% year - on - year; the export was 18.7446 million units, down 6.69% month - on - month and 20.53% year - on - year. [38] Logic Analysis - In the short - term, the supply of lead ingots may improve, and the demand from downstream battery enterprises may increase in the traditional peak season. The lead price is supported by the cost and consumption expectations, and may be strong under the improving macro environment. [38] Trading Strategy - For lead, it is recommended to hold long positions for the unilateral strategy, sell put options for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options. [39] Group 9: Nickel Market Review - The LME nickel price rose 265 to $15510 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 300 to 207,976 tons. The SHFE nickel main contract NI2509 rose 1830 to 123,700 yuan per ton, and the index position increased by 6896 lots. The premiums of Jinchuan, Russian nickel, and electrowon nickel changed differently. [41] Important Information - Nornickel lowered its 2025 nickel production forecast to 196,000 - 204,000 tons. Lifezone Metals released a feasibility study report on its Kabanga nickel project, which is expected to produce 902,000 tons of nickel per year. In June 2025, China's unforged nickel imports were 17,200 tons, down 2.67% month - on - month but up 130.76% year - on - year; the refined nickel exports were 10,100 tons, down 27.41% month - on - month and 2.01% year - on - year. The net import of unforged nickel in June was 7072 tons. [42][43] Logic Analysis - The market is optimistic about the stimulus policy in the second half of the year. Nornickel's production cut helps relieve the oversupply. The fundamentals of nickel are not prominent, and the price may rebound in the short - term but the increase may be limited. [46] Trading Strategy - For nickel, the price may rise in the short - term following the macro environment. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and sell deep - out - of - the - money put options for options. [47] Group 10: Stainless Steel Market Review - The main SS2509 contract rose 35 to 12905 yuan per ton, and the index position increased by 5967 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range. [49] Important Information - In June 2025, Indonesia's exports of 300 - series stainless steel products to Taiwan region of China decreased sharply. The environmental assessment of an 80,000 - ton stainless steel cold - rolling project in Guangxi was approved. A project of Guangdong Guangqing Metal Technology Co., Ltd. to improve the quality of stainless steel and build a continuous casting machine will start construction in September 2025 and is expected to be put into operation in March 2026, with an annual output of 400,000 tons of 400 - series stainless steel billets. [49] Logic Analysis - The market is optimistic about the stimulus policy, and the stainless steel price is expected to be strong in the short - term. However, the actual demand is not optimistic, and the market is trading on the macro logic. [50] Trading Strategy - For stainless steel, the price is expected to rise in a volatile manner for the unilateral strategy, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage. [52] Group 11: Industrial Silicon Market Review - The main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 9260 yuan per ton, up 4.99%. Spot prices also increased significantly. [54] Important Information - A fire broke out at Shandong Zibo Dongyue Organic Silicon Material Co., Ltd., which has a methyl chlorosilane monomer production capacity of 600,000 tons per year. [54] Logic Analysis - Leading enterprises are reducing production, and the复产 capacity in the southwest is small - scale. There is a supply - demand gap in industrial silicon before the leading enterprises resume production. The inventory is mainly in the trading sector, and the futures price increase forms a positive feedback with the spot price. In the long - term, the market reversal depends on the leading enterprises'复产 rhythm. [54] Trading Strategy - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to take a long - biased approach for the unilateral strategy, buy protective put options for options, and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts and positive arbitrage for the 11th and 10th contracts for arbitrage. [55] Group 12: Polysilicon Market Review - No specific market review information is provided. Important Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a growth - stabilizing plan for key industries. The US solar manufacturing and trade alliance has filed an anti - dumping/anti - subsidy investigation against India, Indonesia, and Laos. [59] Logic Analysis - The polysilicon market is full of rumors, and the price increase can be transmitted to the downstream. The futures price is expected to fluctuate between 40,000 and 47,000 yuan per ton. The increase in industrial silicon price drives up the cost of polysilicon, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term until the number of warehouse receipts increases. [59][60] Trading Strategy - For polysilicon, it is recommended to pay attention to the number of warehouse receipts for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for options, and conduct reverse arbitrage for the far - month contracts for arbitrage. [60] Group 13: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2509 contract of lithium carbonate rose 1760 to 71,280 yuan per ton, and the index position increased by 17,000 lots. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 210 to 9969 tons. The spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate also increased. [62] Important Information

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall demand side of polysilicon still faces significant pressure. The polysilicon futures market saw a daily limit today, mainly due to the rising coal and energy prices, which led to an increase in costs. Meanwhile, the photovoltaic industry has been a major focus in the anti - involution conference, resulting in a significant increase in polysilicon prices. However, with high profits and inventory levels, if enterprises resume production and the downstream cannot absorb the high - priced products, a negative feedback loop may form. It is advised to wait and see or consider buying put options instead of chasing the high prices [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 49,105 yuan/ton, with a change of 3,445 yuan. The price difference between August and September was 225 yuan, a decrease of 175 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 192,179 lots, an increase of 20,122 lots. The price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon was 39,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,050 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of polysilicon was 46,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,810 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feeding type polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 9,655 yuan/ton, an increase of 395 yuan. The spot price was 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly production was 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons. The monthly export volume was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons. The monthly import volume was 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons. The total social inventory was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of polysilicon was 95,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. The monthly import volume was 1,113 tons, an increase of 320 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 6.01 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.98 US dollars. The monthly average import price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of solar cells was 6.7386 million kilowatts, a decrease of 318,300 kilowatts. The average daily price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 88,975,860 units, a decrease of 14,424,120 units. The monthly import volume was 11,095,900 units, a decrease of 1,002,590 units. The monthly average import price was 0.31 US dollars/unit, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 26.63, an increase of 4.34 [2]. Industry News - The deputy director of the National Data Bureau stated that the bureau will promote the market - oriented reform of data elements and the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative. In the polysilicon industry, the overall production of polysilicon enterprises increased this week, with some enterprises increasing production and some undergoing maintenance. The self - disciplined production reduction measures did not cause significant fluctuations in production capacity. The demand side was affected by the anti - involution conference, with a significant decline in production capacity but a gradual recovery in price. The production schedule of downstream photovoltaic modules has been adjusted down, and the demand has weakened marginally [2]. - The National Energy Administration issued a notice on verifying coal production to ensure stable coal supply [2]. 观点总结 - The overall demand for polysilicon still faces significant pressure. The futures market of polysilicon rose to the daily limit today, mainly due to the increase in coal and energy prices, which led to an increase in costs. The photovoltaic industry remains a major focus in the anti - involution conference, resulting in a significant increase in polysilicon prices. However, with high profits and inventory levels, if enterprises resume production and the downstream cannot absorb the high - priced products, a negative feedback loop may form. The spot price did not rise today. It is recommended to wait and see or consider buying put options instead of chasing the high prices [2].

Report Overview - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures' main price fluctuated. The Si2509 contract closed at 9,260 yuan/ton, up 4.99%. The trading volume was 1,260,930 lots, and the open interest was 383,296 lots, with a net increase of 3,956 lots. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The 553-grade in Inner Mongolia was priced at 8,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan at 8,600 yuan/ton. The 421-grade in Inner Mongolia was 9,400 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang 9,250 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan 9,350 yuan/ton [4]. - The commodity sector resonated to fill the gap in April, and industrial silicon continued to make up for the increase. The fundamental factors are not the main driving logic at present. The resumption of production in the southwest offset the reduction in Xinjiang, and the production change was not significant compared with the first half of the year. There was no unexpected change in the demand side. Previously, it was suggested that 8,800 - 9,200 yuan/ton was a resistance range to be challenged based on the average cost and the previous warehouse receipt cancellation price. Since last Friday, the policy side continued to boost the strong market expectation, and the increase in the industrial silicon guidance price also indicated that the policy aimed at "profit repair" in the short term. Referring to the current average cost of industrial silicon at 9,228 yuan/ton, it will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The main price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The Si2509 contract closed at 9,260 yuan/ton, up 4.99%, with a trading volume of 1,260,930 lots and an open interest of 383,296 lots, a net increase of 3,956 lots [4]. - Spot Price: The spot price of industrial silicon was mainly stable. The 553-grade in Inner Mongolia was 8,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan 8,600 yuan/ton. The 421-grade in Inner Mongolia was 9,400 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang 9,250 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan 9,350 yuan/ton [4]. - Future Outlook: The commodity sector filled the April gap, and industrial silicon continued to rise. The fundamentals were not the main driver. Southwest's复产 offset Xinjiang's production cuts, and demand had no significant changes. With policy support and a cost reference of 9,228 yuan/ton, it will fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]. 2. Market News - On July 21, the futures warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,141 lots, a net decrease of 252 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - In the third week of July, the transaction price range of polysilicon n-type re-feeding material was 40,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 41,700 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 12.4%. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 40,000 - 45,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 41,000 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 15.2% [5]. - On July 18, the State Council Information Office held a press conference. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's Chief Engineer Xie Shaofeng stated that work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials were about to be introduced, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the chemical industry [11] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing "involution" in the chemical industry, with multiple government meetings in 2024 highlighting the need to combat "malicious competition" and promote product quality [6][16] - The focus is on identifying potential investment opportunities within the chemical sector that can benefit from the government's "anti-involution" policies [17] Summary by Sections Why Focus on Chemical Industry Investment Opportunities? - The report outlines the government's commitment to addressing "involution" through various meetings and policy announcements, including the emphasis on supply-side structural reforms and the need for industry self-discipline [6][16] - The report suggests that the chemical industry can find opportunities under the current "anti-involution" policies, particularly through the identification of sectors with stable supply-demand dynamics [17] Which Sub-industries May Benefit from Anti-involution? - The report identifies several sub-industries likely to benefit from the anti-involution policies, including: 1. Comprehensive Chain: Chromium salts, caustic soda, industrial silicon, organic silicon 2. Agricultural Chain: Glyphosate, urea, methanol, sucralose/aspartame, MSG, lysine 3. Real Estate Chain: PVC, soda ash, titanium dioxide, MDI/TDI 4. Electronics Chain: Photoinitiators, refrigerants R134a/R32 5. Textile Chain: Dyes, viscose staple fiber, spandex, viscose filament, polyester filament 6. Automotive Chain: Polyester industrial yarn [7][8][20] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sub-industries that meet specific criteria such as slowing capacity growth, high operating rates, high concentration, minimal cost differences among leading companies, and products at the bottom of the price cycle [8][9] - Key sub-industries to watch include organic silicon, polyester filament, photoinitiators, glyphosate, industrial silicon, and MSG/amino acids, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [9][29]

Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is still showing a slowdown trend. After the news of Yajiang today, it has a significant impact on the three major downstream demands of industrial silicon. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to long - term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9,260 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 565 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 383,296 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 3,956 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 70,457 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 2,674 lots; the warehouse receipt of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 50,393 lots; the price difference between industrial silicon in August - September is 5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passed 553 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton; the basis of the Si main contract is 240 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 415 yuan/ton; the spot price of DMC is 10,860 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, all with no change [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, with no change; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,179.3 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 71.38%, a week - on - week increase of 1.97 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.645 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 117,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. Industry News - A major monomer factory in Shandong had a sudden fire yesterday, and the damage to the device is unknown. It is expected that the quotation in the organic silicon market will rise today. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council approved the establishment of China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. Zimbabwe's state - owned mining enterprise Kuvimba Mining House plans to break ground on a concentrator with an annual processing capacity of 600,000 tons of lithium concentrate at its Sandawana mine in the third quarter of this year, with a total investment of 270 million US dollars, and it is expected to be put into operation in early 2027 [2]. Supply - side Analysis - The current fertilizer subsidy policy in the Ili region of the Northwest remains stable. Large - scale production enterprises have not reported any news of production cuts or shutdowns. The production cost in the Southwest region has decreased. The resumption of production in Baoshan is relatively active, but the resumption scale in Nujiang and Dehong has not met expectations. Sichuan manufacturers mainly focus on ensuring supply and relying on self - owned power plants to maintain production, and the overall operating rate has not increased significantly [2]. Demand - side Analysis - In the organic silicon field, the spot price has risen, production profits have declined, costs have increased, the operating rate has increased, and it supports industrial silicon. In the polysilicon field, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, the industry is operating at a reduced load, downstream photovoltaic demand has declined significantly, and the demand for industrial silicon has decreased. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory has increased, prices have declined, and it is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report offers daily outlooks and trend intensities for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products, based on their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to move up in a volatile manner, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. - **Silver**: Forecasted to break through and move up, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Positive sentiment supports the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: Likely to trade in a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Supply - demand contradictions are emerging, and the price is strengthening, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][18]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend intensity of -1 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to be slightly bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 0; Alumina sees capital inflows, with a trend intensity of 1; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: Macro sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits the upside, with a trend intensity of 0; Stainless - steel prices will oscillate due to the game between reality and macro factors, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Pay attention to lithium - mining industry policies, and it is expected to run strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply - demand de - stocking makes the market resilient, with a trend intensity of 0; Polysilicon has upward momentum due to sentiment, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it will be bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][42]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and prices will have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [2][46]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: The market trading atmosphere is strong, and prices will have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [2][51]. - **Coke**: After the first round of price hikes, it will be slightly bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 0; Coking coal will be slightly bullish, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][55]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, and the price will stabilize in a volatile manner, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][60]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental rally may be premature, and beware of sentiment reversal [2][5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Pay attention to the previous high - technical resistance level and guard against a pull - back after a rally [2][5]. - **Corn**: Continues to rebound [2][5]. - **Sugar**: Trades in a range [2][5]. - **Cotton**: Notice market sentiment changes [2][5]. - **Eggs**: The peak season arrives first, and the sentiment for culling decreases [2][5]. - **Hogs**: Wait for the end - of - month verification [2][5]. - **Peanuts**: Slightly bullish in a volatile way [2][5]. Others - **Log**: Trades with wide - range fluctuations [2][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: Macro sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits the elastic space [2][4] - Stainless Steel: There is a game between reality and macro factors, and steel prices fluctuate [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Pay attention to lithium mining industry policies, and it is expected to run strongly [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Supply and demand are in the process of destocking, and the futures market is relatively resilient [2][12] - Polysilicon: Market sentiment is fermenting, and the futures market has an upward driving force [2][13] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 120,500 yuan, the stainless - steel main contract was 12,725 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 94,302 lots, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 162,130 lots. Other data such as import nickel prices, spreads, and production costs also showed corresponding changes [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; Some nickel smelters and cold - rolling mills in Indonesia had production adjustments; The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban; Environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period; The approved production target in 2025 was higher than that in 2024; Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia were suspended due to losses [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 69,960 yuan, with a trading volume of 1,206,323 lots and a position of 377,305 lots. Other data such as spot prices, spreads, and raw material prices also changed [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased; There were intensive policy deployments in the new - energy vehicle industry; A Zimbabwean state - owned mining enterprise planned to build a lithium - concentrate beneficiation plant [10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a relatively strong outlook [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Si2509 was 8,695 yuan/ton, and that of PS2509 was 43,850 yuan/ton. There were also data on trading volume, position, spreads, spot prices, profits, and inventories [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: Two component tenders were postponed or terminated [13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is 1 (relatively strong) [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: Macro - sentiment boosts expectations, but the real - world situation limits the upside potential. Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate due to the game between macro - expectations and real - world supply - demand [4][5]. - Industrial silicon: The industry is in a de - stocking phase, and the resumption of production at upstream factories is a key factor to watch. For polysilicon, it is a policy - driven market, and it may be safer to go long on dips [30][34][35]. - Lithium carbonate: Driven by the "Anti - Involution 1.0 + Lithium Mine 2.0" policies, the price is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to the approval of mining licenses in August [63][66]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals** - **Nickel**: Macro and news improve market sentiment, but the real - world fundamentals limit the price elasticity. The support from the nickel ore end is weakening, and the supply expectations from the smelting end restrict the upside [4]. - **Stainless steel**: Macro - expectations boost the futures market, but real - world supply - demand is still a drag. The market is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Inventory Changes** - China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,674 tons to 38,979 tons, and LME nickel inventory increased by 1,398 tons to 207,576 tons. Nickel - iron inventory pressure is high but slightly eased, and stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 1.69% week - on - week [6][7]. - China's port nickel - ore inventory increased by 518,700 wet tons to 9,483,600 wet tons [9]. - **Market News** - Multiple events such as potential export restrictions, project startups, factory resumptions, and production suspensions in the nickel and stainless - steel industries were reported [10][11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends** - Industrial silicon futures and spot prices rose, with the futures closing at 8,695 yuan/ton on Friday. Polysilicon futures soared, closing at 43,850 yuan/ton on Friday, and the spot price also increased [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals** - **Industrial silicon**: Supply - side production increased, with Southwest China having a hedging action. The overall industry inventory continued to decline, with a social inventory reduction of 4,000 tons and a factory inventory reduction of 1,000 tons. Demand from polysilicon and organic silicon provided short - term support [31]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply increased marginally as some factories resumed production. The upstream inventory decreased, but the terminal demand was weak, and the price increase transmission was not smooth [32][33]. - **Market Outlook** - Industrial silicon is expected to be resilient before the end of the market sentiment, and the resumption of production at upstream factories is crucial. Polysilicon is in a policy - driven market, and going long on dips may be a safer strategy [34][35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends** - The lithium carbonate futures contracts accelerated their upward movement. The 2509 contract closed at 69,960 yuan/ton, up 5,680 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price rose by 2,900 yuan/ton to 66,650 yuan/ton [63]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals** - **Supply**: Policy issues in Jiangxi and Qinghai regions affected the market. Lithium carbonate production continued to increase, reaching 19,115 tons this week, a 1.61% increase [64]. - **Demand**: The inventory accumulation of downstream cathode materials slowed down. The new - energy storage project installation scale decreased significantly in June [65]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of lithium carbonate continued to increase, mainly concentrated in the trading sector, while the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,364 tons to 10,239 tons [65]. - **Market Outlook** - Driven by policies, the lithium price is expected to remain strong. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously, with the futures main - contract price expected to range from 55,000 to 75,000 yuan/ton. A positive spread strategy is recommended for the inter - period trading, and selling hedging is advised [66][67][68].