文字早评 2025/04/29 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指-0.20%，创指-0.65%，科创 50-0.17%，北证 50-1.78%，上证 50+0.09%，沪深 300-0.14%， 中证 500-0.51%，中证 1000-1.05%，中证 2000-1.42%，万得微盘-1.11%。两市合计成交 10563 亿，较上 一日-573 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、发改委：我国将出台实施稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措；常态化、敞口式做好政策预研 储备，及时出台增量储备政策。 2、发改委：针对长期摇号家庭和无车家庭等重点群体，定向增发购车指标；建立实施育儿补贴制度。 3、央行邹澜：发挥好货币政策工具箱总量和结构双重功能，适时推出增量政策，将适时降准降息。 资金面：融资额-54.03 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率-0.30bp 至 1.6030%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率+0.40bp 至 3.1177%，十年期国债利率-0.90bp 至 1.6514%，信用利差+1.30bp 至 147bp；美国 10 年期利率-3.00bp 至 4.29%，中美利差+2.10bp ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a weak trend on April 28, with the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closing at 1376.15 points, down 5.55 points or 0.40% from the previous trading day [1] - The energy and chemical sector showed strength, particularly in the polyester chain, with short fibers, low-sulfur fuel oil, and PTA recording approximately 2% gains [1][3] - In contrast, the metal sector continued to adjust, with polysilicon leading the decline, dropping over 3%, while gold and silver fell more than 1% [1][4] Group 2: Polyester Chain Performance - The polyester industry chain maintained a strong performance, with short fiber futures leading the market with a 2.08% increase, while PTA and bottle chips also rose over 1% [3] - Global trade tensions have lessened their impact on market sentiment, and the recovery of international oil prices has supported the stabilization of energy and chemical products [3] - However, there are concerns regarding weak demand in both domestic and foreign trade, leading to increased inventory levels in short fiber factories [3] Group 3: Metal Sector Weakness - The metal sector, including energy metals, faced a collective downturn, with polysilicon dropping 3.05%, and lithium carbonate and industrial silicon also declining [4] - Despite a previous rebound due to production control rumors, the demand for photovoltaic installations has cooled, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances for silicon materials [4] - The overall sentiment in the metal market remains bearish, with expectations of continued pressure on polysilicon prices due to weak future demand and slow inventory depletion [4] Group 4: Oilseed and Oil Market Trends - The oilseed and oil market also saw a collective decline, with soybean meal, palm oil, and No. 2 yellow soybeans all dropping over 2% [5] - The market sentiment turned negative due to downstream resistance to high-priced soybean meal, alongside a retreat in U.S. soybean prices and expectations of increased domestic oilseed supply [5] - In the absence of substantial positive fundamentals, the oilseed market is likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend [5]

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent developments in the non-ferrous metals industry, including advancements in AI tools by ByteDance and Meituan, indicating a growing demand for AI-driven solutions in various sectors [1] - The market performance of the non-ferrous metals sector shows a positive trend, with the SW non-ferrous metals industry index increasing by 1.50% [2] - Key metal prices have shown varied movements, with copper, aluminum, and zinc prices rising, while some rare earth elements have decreased [3] Market Performance - As of April 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.56% to 3295.06 points, and the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.38% to 3786.99 points [2] - The SW non-ferrous metals industry index reached 4641 points, reflecting a 1.50% increase [2] - Among the five sub-industries in non-ferrous metals, industrial metals and energy metals saw increases of 2.35% and 2.93%, respectively, while precious metals decreased by 2.52% [2] Key Metal Prices - The prices for key metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are as follows: copper at 77,440 CNY/ton (+1.91%), aluminum at 20,030 CNY/ton (+1.68%), zinc at 22,750 CNY/ton (+3.34%), lead at 16,945 CNY/ton (+0.68%), nickel at 125,800 CNY/ton (+0.15%), and tin at 262,840 CNY/ton (+2.39%) [3] - On the London Metal Exchange, copper, aluminum, and zinc prices also increased, with copper at 9,360 USD/ton (+1.87%) and aluminum at 2,438 USD/ton (+3.04%) [3] - Gold and silver prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 787.20 CNY/gram (+0.22%) and 8,280 CNY/kilogram (+1.79%), respectively [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China may enhance market risk appetite, leading to potential rebounds in industrial metal stocks [4][5] - Specific recommendations include investing in gold-related A-shares such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold Mining, and Hunan Gold, as well as industrial metal leaders like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum [5]

金十期货4月28日讯，伦敦金属交易所（LME）有色金属库存及变化如下： 1. 铜库存202800吨，减少650吨。 2. 铝库存419575吨，减少2000吨。 3. 镍库存201426吨，减少1044吨。 4. 锌库存179325吨，减少725吨。 5. 铅库存271025吨，减少3050吨。 6. 锡库存2845吨，增加35吨。 LME有色金属库存日报 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the **commodities market**, highlighting the current trends and historical comparisons to the 1970s and 1930s [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Globalization and Economic Trends**: - Increasing trade frictions are exacerbating the trend of de-globalization, resembling the 1930s and 1970s, with the current situation more akin to the 1970s stagflation environment [1][2]. - The current asset price structure reflects a stagflation bull market, with significant increases in gold and copper prices, while the dollar and U.S. stock markets are declining [1][4]. 2. **Supply Shocks**: - Supply shocks are a natural outcome of the de-globalization trend, with resource-rich countries implementing export bans on commodities like nickel, bismuth, cobalt, and tin [1][5]. - Historical parallels are drawn to the 1978 weather extremes and Middle Eastern geopolitical uncertainties that caused supply shocks [5]. 3. **Demand Dynamics**: - Despite economic downturns, the apparent consumption of industrial metals like copper and aluminum has not significantly decreased, indicating structural demand stability [8]. - Strategic reserve policies, similar to the 1979 U.S. mineral reserve amendments, are driving commodity demand upward [8][9]. 4. **Geopolitical Influences**: - The current geopolitical landscape, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has led to increased inventory levels across industries, with countries like China, the U.S., and Europe boosting resource strategic reserves [9]. 5. **Dollar Supply and Inflation**: - The oversupply of dollars, driven by fiscal expansion, has historically led to rising resource prices, a trend that is currently being observed due to extensive fiscal stimulus measures [10][11]. - The current U.S. national debt exceeds 120% of GDP, significantly impacting interest expenses and indicating a more severe dollar crisis compared to the 1980s [14]. 6. **Comparison with Historical Context**: - The current situation is contrasted with the 1970s, where the latter part of that decade saw a commodity bull market followed by a prolonged downturn, while the present may mark the beginning of a long-term commodity bull market [13][16]. 7. **Investment Recommendations**: - It is advised to invest in dollar-denominated short-duration assets like gold and copper, as their pricing is expected to rise due to the weakening dollar [17]. - Long-duration assets priced in RMB are also recommended, anticipating an increase in the value of future cash flows due to China's rising power and currency appreciation [17]. Other Important Insights - The long-term impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could lead to a 1-2% increase in U.S. CPI, affecting inflation dynamics beyond his term [16]. - The transition of certain metals from industrial to financial assets due to the depreciation of the dollar index has increased their market demand [12].

LME有色金属库存日报 金十期货4月23日讯，伦敦金属交易所（LME）有色金属库存及变化如下： 1. 铜库存205250吨，减少7450吨。 2. 铝库存425600吨，减少6100吨。 3. 镍库存204252吨，减少2178吨。 4. 锌库存185025吨，减少7200吨。 5. 铅库存277075吨，减少4200吨。 6. 锡库存2830吨，减少50吨。 ...

智通财经4月22日电，据伦敦金属交易所(LME)，锡库存增加30吨，镍库存增加1902吨，铅库存减少350 吨，铝库存减少2450吨，铜库存减少700吨，锌库存减少3125吨。 ...

2025 年 4 月 21 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 黄金、螺纹钢、铁矿石、原油、 PTA、豆粕、菜籽粕期货将偏强震荡 多晶硅、烧碱期货将震 荡偏弱 工业硅、铜、镍期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 TaoJinfeng013026@gtjas.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2506 阻力位 3729 和 3748 点，支撑位 3690 和 3673 点；IH2506 阻力位 2650 和 2658 点，支撑位 2620 和 2612 点；IC2506 阻力位 5470 和 5498 点，支撑位 536 ...

报告日期： 2025 年 4 月 17 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：商品涨跌互现，金价再创新高 国家统计局公布数据，一季度国内生产总值同比增长 5.4% ，环比增长 1.2% 。 3 月规模以上工业增加 值同比实际增长 7.7% ，装备制造业和高技术制造业较快增长，新能源汽车继续保持高速增长态势。由 于汽车购买量大幅增加，美国 3 月零售销售环比增长 1.4% ，增幅创两年多来最大，表明消费者正赶在 惩罚性汽车关税之前购买汽车。但随着特朗普推进关税，一些通胀预期指标飙升，削弱了美国人对自己 财务状况的看法，低收入消费者已面临困境，而较富裕的消费者则受到股市抛售打击，这给支出前景蒙 上了阴影。现货黄金史上首次站上 3300 美元 / 盎司，日内暴涨 70 美元，涨幅超 2% 。受金价大幅波动 影响，部分投资者选择囤货待涨。 重点品种： 橡胶、原油、 贵金属 橡胶 ：周三橡胶走势回落，国内产区气候较好，产区逐步开割，泰国减产季即将结束。青岛地区总库 存持续增加，库存周期转变较为明显，美关税政策影响短期反复，预计仍将延续，关税政策本质上对原 料端不利，中长期终端消费的变化路径仍存在不确定性，消费端分析逻辑可能 ...

4月16日，沪指震荡收涨，涨幅为0.26%，科创50指数涨0.81%，A股全天成交额1.14万亿元，较上一交 易日小幅放量，收盘上涨个股超1000只，其中，收盘股价涨停的有54只，跌停的有16只。 行业方面，贵金属板块收盘上涨3.51%，赤峰黄金、山金国际、西部黄金等涨超5%。旅游及酒店、港口 航运、机场航运、银行等均涨超1%。 银行股集体创历史新高 不含近一年上市的次新股，今日共有18股收盘价创历史新高，从行业属性来看，银行、食品饮料、有色 金属行业创新高的个股较为集中，分别有4只、3只、2只个股出现在名单中。 从股价表现看，收盘价创历史新高股中，今日股价平均上涨3.71%，涨幅居前的有盖世食品、赤峰黄 金、民士达等。 | | | 4月16日收盘价创历史新高股涨幅排名 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 简称 | 收盘价 (元) | 日涨幅 (%) | 行业 | | 836826 | 盖世食品 | 16.80 | 12.00 | 食品饮料 | | 600988 | 赤峰黄金 | 29.95 | 8.08 | 有色金属 | | 833394 | 民士达 | ...