东证衍生品研究院宏观策略首席分析师徐颖表示，金价上涨的核心驱动因素——美国政府债务问题，以 及去美元化交易的中长期逻辑依然存在，这决定了黄金将继续保持上涨格局。同时，美联储独立性问题 从长期来看仍有进一步发酵的可能，一旦与其他因素形成共振，将推动金价继续上扬。 今天上午，有色金属板块大涨，贵金属板块涨势最强，四川黄金、山东黄金涨停。 工业金属板块中，云南铜业、江西铜业等个股涨停。能源金属板块中，赣锋锂业、天齐锂业等个股大 涨。稀土永磁板块中，包钢股份、北方稀土等个股大涨。 国庆假期期间，现货黄金价格持续上行，屡创历史新高。10月8日，现货黄金价格首次突破4000美元/盎 司关口，引发市场热议。 国家外汇管理局10月7日发布的数据显示，9月末我国黄金储备为7406万盎司，环比增加4万盎司，为我 国央行连续第11个月增持黄金。 ...

今日上午，上证指数突破3900点。上一次A股"见到"3900点，是在2015年8月18日，距今已有3700余天。 盘面上，"科技+有色金属"成为最强双主线。有色金属板块中，贵金属板块领涨，工业金属、小金属、稀土永磁等板块上涨。两大龙头股紫金矿业、洛阳 钼业联手大涨，盘中股价均创历史新高。 科技股全面发酵，存储芯片、消费电子等板块涨幅居前。通富微电"一字"涨停，晶圆代工双雄中芯国际涨超7%、华虹公司"20CM"涨停，兆易创新、澜起 科技、中微公司、拓荆科技等龙头股也大涨，这些龙头股盘中股价均创历史新高。 此外，可控核聚变、固态电池、量子科技等板块也大涨。 上午收盘，上证指数上涨1.24%，报3931.07点，深证成指上涨1.75%，创业板指上涨1.77%。市场半日成交超1.72万亿元。 科技股全面走强 今天上午，科技股全面走强，半导体产业链大涨，存储芯片、先进封装等板块涨幅居前。消费电子概念上涨，AI PC、AI手机等板块涨幅居前。算力产业 链表现活跃，PCB、光模块等板块上涨。 | 德邦科技 ■ 688035 | 63.18 | 14.56% | 89.9 Z | | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3900 points for the first time since August 18, 2015, marking over 3700 days since it last reached this level [1] - The market saw a significant increase in trading volume, with over 1.72 trillion yuan traded in the first half of the day [1] Technology Sector - The technology sector experienced a strong rally, particularly in the semiconductor industry, with storage chips and advanced packaging leading the gains [3] - Notable stocks included Tongfu Microelectronics, which hit the daily limit, and major players like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor, which saw increases of over 7% and reached their historical highs [1][3] - Catalysts for the technology sector included price increases in storage chips driven by major companies like Samsung and Micron, with DRAM prices expected to rise by 15% to 30% and NAND flash prices by 5% to 10% [6] - OpenAI's strategic partnership with AMD to deploy 6 GW of AMD GPU power for AI infrastructure also contributed to the positive sentiment in the tech sector [6] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector saw significant gains, with gold prices reaching new highs, including a record of over $4000 per ounce [11] - Major stocks in this sector, such as Sichuan Gold and Shandong Gold, hit their daily limits, reflecting strong investor interest [8] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to ongoing concerns over U.S. government debt and a long-term trend towards de-dollarization, which is expected to support continued price increases [11] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector also performed well, with the precious metals segment leading the charge [1] - Key stocks like Yunnan Copper and Jiangxi Copper reached their daily limits, while lithium companies such as Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium saw substantial gains [8] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector also experienced significant increases, with companies like Baotou Steel and Northern Rare Earth achieving notable stock performance [8]

期金首破 4000，国庆假期收官，周期如何看？ 20251008 摘要 国庆假期邮政快递揽收量同比增长 4.5%，增速放缓，主要受反内卷涨 价政策影响，低价件减少导致整体件量增速下降。 国庆期间 BDI 指数同比下降 8.8%，航运市场表现平淡，但四季度航空 票价预计同比正增长，推荐关注华夏航空及港股航空公司。 极兔速递与 TikTok 深度绑定，东南亚业务件量高增，给予"三年一 倍"强推评级；嘉友国际受益于焦煤价格回升，预计三季度业绩环比、 同比均增长。 快递行业反内卷政策推动价格回升，申通、圆通等公司业绩有望大幅改 善，预计该趋势将在 10 月份延续并体现在三季报中。 化工产品价格指数与前两周环比持平，原油期货受俄罗斯炼油厂遇袭及 OPEC 增产低于预期影响，维持在 60-66 美元/桶。 伯克希尔哈撒韦收购西方石油公司化工部门 OxyChem，表明细分龙头 企业在周期底部具备较高投资价值，当前是投资化工行业的良好时机。 近期黄金价格突破 4,000 美元，主要受美元走弱影响，预计未来两三年 仍表现出色，明年金价或达 5,000 美元/盎司，推荐关注紫金黄金国际。 Q&A 今年国庆假期期间的客运流量和票价 ...

Core Viewpoint - A resource revolution is underway as the world strives for carbon neutrality, with energy metals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel becoming essential for the clean energy era, replacing traditional fossil fuels [2]. Group 1: Energy Metals Market Trends - The energy metals sector index has shown a consistent upward trend since April, with a significant breakout on September 30, indicating potential for further gains [4]. - Energy metals, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earths, are crucial raw materials for new energy devices like lithium batteries and fuel cells, making them attractive in the capital market [4]. Group 2: Lithium Demand and Supply - The explosive demand for lithium is driven by the rise of the new energy industry, with the automotive sector expected to contribute significantly to this growth. By 2025, global electric vehicle sales are projected to reach 19.2 million, with China accounting for over 15 million [6]. - The energy storage sector is emerging as a new growth driver, with global demand for storage batteries expected to grow over 40%, contributing 13% to total lithium demand [7]. - By 2025, domestic demand for lithium carbonate is anticipated to increase by 52% year-on-year, supported by diverse applications in power batteries, energy storage, and consumer electronics [7][9]. Group 3: Cobalt Market Dynamics - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has extended its cobalt export ban to stabilize prices, with future policies likely to shift towards a quota system, potentially tightening supply and increasing prices [10][11]. - Global cobalt supply is projected to rise from 20.7 thousand tons in 2022 to 32.9 thousand tons by 2026, while demand will increase from 18.7 thousand tons to 28.0 thousand tons, indicating a potential shift towards a balanced market due to policy interventions [12]. Group 4: Nickel Market Outlook - Nickel prices are supported by strong demand from the stainless steel and battery sectors, with the latter expected to grow rapidly. The stainless steel industry accounts for 70% of nickel demand [13][16]. - Indonesia's nickel mining policies will significantly impact future supply dynamics, with the country being a major producer [13][16]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The energy metals sector is positioned to benefit from the global energy transition and carbon neutrality efforts, with strong demand growth for lithium, cobalt, and nickel amid supply constraints [17]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with resource advantages in lithium, cobalt, and nickel production, as well as those leading in battery material technology and benefiting from the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle and storage sectors [17].

Core Viewpoint - A resource revolution is underway as the world strives for carbon neutrality, with energy metals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel becoming essential for the clean energy transition [1] Group 1: Energy Metals Market Trends - The energy metals sector index has shown a consistent upward trend since April, with a significant breakout on September 30, where the index rose by 4.03%, indicating potential for further gains [3] - Energy metals, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earths, are critical raw materials for new energy devices such as lithium batteries and fuel cells [3] Group 2: Lithium Demand and Supply - Lithium demand is expected to surge due to the rise of the new energy industry, with global sales of electric vehicles projected to reach 19.2 million by 2025, contributing over 15 million from China [4][6] - The demand structure for lithium is characterized by a dominant role of power batteries, with a projected 52% year-on-year growth in domestic lithium carbonate demand by 2025 [4] Group 3: Cobalt Market Dynamics - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has extended its cobalt export ban to stabilize prices, with a shift towards an annual export quota management system expected to tighten supply [7] - Global cobalt supply is projected to increase from 20.7 thousand tons in 2022 to 32.9 thousand tons by 2026, while demand is expected to rise from 18.7 thousand tons to 28.0 thousand tons in the same period [8] Group 4: Nickel Supply and Demand - Nickel prices are supported by rising costs across the supply chain, with the stainless steel sector accounting for 70% of nickel demand, while the battery sector is growing rapidly [9][11] - The global stainless steel production is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.85% from 2017 to 2024, indicating a stable demand for nickel [9] Group 5: Investment Outlook - The current global interest rate cut cycle enhances the investment value of the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly energy metals, which are poised to benefit from the energy transition and carbon neutrality efforts [12] - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with resource advantages in lithium, cobalt, and nickel production, as well as those leading in battery material technology [12]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices closed higher, continuing the pre-holiday rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index supported at the 3800-point level and moving upward, remaining above 3800 points throughout the month, just a step away from 3900 points [3] - The market showed a moderate increase in trading volume, with a total transaction amount exceeding 2 trillion yuan, indicating a significant increase compared to the same period last year, and the trading activity is at a historical high [5] Sector Performance - Among the sectors, storage chips, energy metals, semiconductors, lithium batteries, and military industries performed strongly, while the liquor and automotive service sectors weakened, with banks, insurance, public utilities, and tourism hotels experiencing the largest declines [4] Investor Sentiment - Institutional investors are optimistic, focusing on sectors with industrial trends and policy catalysts, particularly in technology growth areas, while retail investors are actively participating and chasing market hotspots, showing high interest in strong sectors like storage chips and non-ferrous metals [7] - Retail investor sentiment is reported at 75.85%, indicating a generally optimistic outlook [8] Fund Flow - There was a net outflow of 79 billion yuan from institutional funds, while retail investors showed a net inflow, reflecting differing investment strategies between the two groups [6]

Group 1 - Double-Helix Pharmaceutical announced that its associate, Changfeng Pharmaceutical, is expected to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 8, 2025, with a global offering of 41.198 million shares priced at HKD 14.75 each. Double-Helix holds approximately 3.68% of Changfeng's shares, with a lock-up period of 12 months post-listing [1] - Changfeng Pharmaceutical is involved in the pharmaceutical industry, specifically in the research and development of gene-engineered drugs [2] Group 2 - Lio Corporation has submitted an application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for issuing H-shares and listing on the main board [3] - Lio Corporation operates in the mechanical manufacturing and digital marketing sectors [3] Group 3 - Changjiang Securities received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission to issue corporate bonds totaling no more than CNY 20 billion, valid for 24 months [4] - Changjiang Securities provides services such as securities and futures brokerage, financial product distribution, investment advisory, asset custody, and margin financing [4] Group 4 - Jingye Intelligent plans to acquire 51% of Hefei Shengwen Information Technology for CNY 108 million, focusing on engineering information technology and intelligent products [5][6] - Jingye Intelligent specializes in the research, development, production, and sales of special robots and intelligent equipment systems [6] Group 5 - Aimeike's subsidiary received approval for the registration of Minoxidil topical solution, a non-prescription drug for treating hair loss [7][8] - Aimeike is engaged in the research, development, production, and sales of biomedical materials and biopharmaceuticals [8] Group 6 - Dalian Heavy Industry expects a net profit of CNY 474 million to CNY 508 million for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.91% to 28.52% [9] - Dalian Heavy Industry specializes in the design, manufacturing, assembly, and installation of major technical equipment [9] Group 7 - Huayou Cobalt signed supply agreements with LGES for a total of approximately 76,000 tons of ternary precursor products from 2026 to 2030 [10][11] - Huayou Cobalt focuses on the research, manufacturing, and sales of new energy lithium battery materials and cobalt new materials [11] Group 8 - Zhenjiang Co. plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 5.529 million shares, not exceeding 3% of the total share capital, due to personal funding needs [12] - Zhenjiang Co. is involved in the design, processing, and sales of wind power equipment and components [12] Group 9 - Watson Bio's subsidiary received a drug registration certificate for a 13-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine for children [14][15] - Watson Bio specializes in the research, development, production, and sales of human vaccines and biopharmaceuticals [15] Group 10 - Yikang Pharmaceutical's major shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 42 million shares, not exceeding 2.04% of the total share capital, due to personal funding needs [16] - Yikang Pharmaceutical is engaged in the production and sales of excipients, raw materials, finished drugs, and new energy materials [16] Group 11 - Sichuan Gold's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 7.56 million shares, accounting for 1.80% of the total share capital [19] - Sichuan Gold focuses on the construction, mining, and sales of gold mines [19] Group 12 - Kangchen Pharmaceutical received approval for a clinical trial of an innovative drug for treating advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma [20][21] - Kangchen Pharmaceutical specializes in the manufacturing of chemical drug formulations [21] Group 13 - UCloud plans to repurchase shares worth between CNY 8 million and CNY 10 million for employee stock ownership plans [22] - UCloud provides cloud computing services centered on IT infrastructure [22] Group 14 - Woton Technology announced an adjustment to its share repurchase plan, raising the price cap to CNY 60 per share [24] - Woton Technology specializes in the research, manufacturing, and sales of separation membrane products [24] Group 15 - Five Continents Medical announced plans for shareholders to reduce holdings by up to 126,530 shares, accounting for 1.8606% of the total share capital [26] - Five Continents Medical focuses on the research, manufacturing, and sales of disposable sterile infusion medical devices [26] Group 16 - CIMC Group plans to repurchase A-shares with a total amount not exceeding CNY 5 billion [27] - CIMC Group specializes in logistics and energy equipment solutions [27] Group 17 - Zhifei Biological's subsidiary received a drug registration certificate for a trivalent influenza vaccine suitable for individuals aged 3 and above [29][30] - Zhifei Biological is involved in the research, development, production, and sales of vaccines and biological products [30]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a significant rebound in investor sentiment as of September 30, with a high level of participation and optimism among both institutional and retail investors, despite some caution due to the upcoming holiday [1][5]. Market Performance - All three major A-share indices closed in the green, with the Shanghai Composite Index supported at the 3800-point level, indicating a continued upward trend [3]. - The market saw 2,655 stocks rise, reflecting a balanced gain-loss ratio, and the average daily trading volume in August and September reached 2 trillion yuan, marking a historical high in trading activity [3]. Investor Sentiment - Institutional investors are adopting a "optimistic layout, holding stocks through the holiday" strategy, reallocating funds towards sectors with reasonable valuations, while retail investors are actively chasing market hotspots like storage chips and energy metals [5]. - A survey indicated that 52.86% of investors are fully invested, with 24.49% increasing their positions, while 53.54% chose to hold their positions [7][9]. Trading Behavior - Retail investors displayed a strong inclination towards active trading, with 69.77% predicting a market decline in the next trading day, while 30.23% anticipated a rise [11].

Core Viewpoint - The main observation is that the A-share market is experiencing controlled fluctuations, with significant influence from major financial sectors like banks, securities, and insurance, which are being used to manage market movements and prevent excessive volatility [3][4][5]. Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively rose today, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.52% to 3882.78 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.35% to 13526.51 points, and the ChiNext Index remaining flat at 3238.16 points. The total trading volume reached 21.814 trillion, an increase of 200 billion from the previous trading day [2][9]. Market Control and Dynamics - The main players have demonstrated a high level of control over the Shanghai Composite Index, maintaining a narrow trading range of approximately 20 points throughout the day. This control is primarily executed through the banking, securities, and insurance sectors [3][4]. - The recent surge in the market was attributed to a rise in H-shares, which inadvertently boosted A-shares, indicating a cross-market influence where the performance of Hong Kong stocks impacted mainland stocks [3][6]. Sector Performance - The energy metals sector, along with semiconductor stocks, showed notable activity, although there was significant differentiation within the semiconductor sector. For instance, stocks like "Ji Lian Hai" performed poorly, while "Han Wu Ji" initially opened strong but closed with nearly all gains reversed, highlighting the risks associated with high-flying stocks [6][7]. - The financial sector, particularly banks, has seen significant outflows, with bank stocks reaching new lows in the current market cycle, raising questions about the underlying reasons for this divergence from the overall bullish sentiment [8]. Capital Flow - Today's capital flow favored sectors such as aerospace (1.74 billion), small metals (1.53 billion), and medical services (1 billion), while the largest outflows were from the securities sector (7.89 billion) and communication equipment (6.18 billion) [8]. - The overall market is characterized by a balance between bullish and bearish sentiments, with a median stock performance of zero across approximately 5000 stocks, indicating a lack of strong directional movement [7][8]. Monthly Review - For the month of September, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.64% (approximately 24 points), while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index showed more pronounced gains, suggesting a more dynamic performance in the Shenzhen market compared to the Shanghai market [9].