证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 社会服务 2024 年价格端有所提升，分业态有所分化。2024 年 CPI 整体有所恢复，利好零 售同店端，但客流受线上化影响仍有分化。2024 年累计分零售业态增长：专业店 （yoy+4.2%）、专卖店（yoy-0.4%）、超市（yoy+2.7%）、百货（yoy-2.4%）、便利 店（+4.7%）。其中超市受益调改+供应链变革提升前端客流吸引力，百货受到空 置率等因素影响仍有下滑。 社会服务 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 17 日 分化加剧，寻求需求侧景气度或供给侧的成本费用改善 ——社服行业 2024 年年报&2025Q1 业绩综述 投资要点 2024 年旅游高增长，25Q1 景气延续。根据文旅部数据，2024 年全年旅游收入增 长 17%，旅游人次增长 15%，客单价超越 19 年。2025 年春节国内旅游收入增长 7%，旅游人次增长 6%。低线城市、县域和农村居民的需求升级推动了旅游市场 下沉增量。银发游崛起，2024 年，45 岁以上的中老年旅游者合计出游 11.94 亿人 次，占据国内旅游客源市场的 36.81%。 OTA 充分享受大盘增长，格局稳固。下游供给加 ...

为迎接这些远道而来的游客，上海市文旅局为他们准备了外语地图、上海文旅指南宣传册和上海特色美食冰箱贴纪念品， 并提供必要的资源对接。 记者 李宝花 昨天，首次到访上海的俄罗斯游客桑皮尔、达莉娅夫妇走进豫园，这里古典与现代交融的街区风貌瞬间令达莉娅惊叹不 已："像是走进卡通世界，美得太不真实了！" 与桑皮尔夫妇一起抵沪的，还有来自哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦等19个国家的1200余名会奖游客，他们均来自安利中亚大 区公司。这也是今年以来上海单批次接待规模最大的入境会奖团，直接带动了酒店、宴会餐饮、交通等相关消费链的拓展。 在中国不断优化免签及240小时过境免签等高水平对外开放政策推动下，上海口岸国际客流持续攀升。据上海市文旅局统计 数据，今年一季度上海入境游人数累计达174万余人次，较去年同期增加47万余人次，同比增幅37.08%。其中，过夜人数超155 万人次，同比增长53.02%。 步入第二季度，大型会奖团队、旅游团正纷至沓来，自由行游客也络绎不绝，将为上海打造"中国入境游第一站"进一步筑 牢根基，彰显了上海作为国际大都市的独特魅力和吸引力。 昨天，南京路步行街随处可见海外游客。记者 李茂君 摄 该大型会奖团接待 ...

Group 1: Hotel Industry Development - In April 2025, a total of 314 new hotels opened in China, including 89 mid-range hotels and 86 domestic mid-to-high-end hotels [1] - There were 113 new hotel projects signed in April, with 2 luxury hotels and 7 international high-end hotels among them [1] - A total of 54 hotels were auctioned in April, with 18 hotels having auction prices exceeding 100 million yuan [1] Group 2: New Resort Openings - The Rizhao Kaiyuan Senbo Resort Park officially opened on May 10, covering an area of 185 acres with a total investment of 2.016 billion yuan [2] - Additional projects, including the Wuhan Kaiyuan Senbo Resort Park and the Tonglu Kaiyuan Senbo Resort, are set to open in June and summer respectively [2] Group 3: New Entertainment Facilities - The largest indoor ski resort in Zhejiang, Hangzhou Hot Snow Miracle, has officially launched, covering a total area of approximately 84,000 square meters [3] - The facility will offer various functions including youth ski training and public ice and snow sports [3] Group 4: Real Estate Transactions - Lexin Technology plans to purchase an office building project from Shanghai Lujiazui Group for 437 million yuan, with a total area of 13,000 square meters [4] - New Huangpu intends to acquire the Silicon Valley SOHO-2 project in Beijing for 215 million yuan, which is currently vacant [7] Group 5: Corporate Governance Issues - Red Star Macalline's general manager, Che Jianxing, is under investigation and has been placed under detention, while other executives continue to perform their duties [5] - Qujiang Cultural Tourism's major shareholder has had 57.05 million shares frozen due to debt disputes [6] Group 6: Upcoming Hotel Auctions - The Dali Strength Hilton Hotel is set for public judicial auction on May 29, with an estimated auction value of approximately 1.093 billion yuan [8]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Jing'an Cultural and Tourism Consumption Season will start on May 19, with the distribution of cultural and tourism consumption vouchers through the "Alipay" platform [1] - This initiative is part of Jing'an District's efforts to build a "national-level cultural and tourism consumption pilot city" and has been held for three consecutive years [1] - The 2025 consumption season will focus on key merchants in accommodation, exhibitions, performances, film, publishing, and cultural derivatives, aiming to enhance revenue growth and improve the quality of cultural tourism consumption [1] Group 2 - Over 10,000 vouchers will be issued, categorized into "accommodation vouchers" and "cultural creation vouchers" [2] - Notable participating hotels include Alila Shanghai, the first urban resort Alila hotel in China, and Yan'an Hotel, a historic establishment recognized as one of Shanghai's top ten classic buildings [2] - The event will feature the UK original musical "SIX," which will debut in China at the Shanghai Meiqi Grand Theatre, offering a unique blend of history and contemporary rock elements [2]

Core Viewpoint - Huayuan Real Estate has shifted its focus from real estate development to becoming a "landlord" by transitioning into hotel and long-term rental apartment businesses, but faces skepticism regarding its ability to sustain its market capitalization of 2 billion [2][3][12]. Group 1: Business Transition - Huayuan Real Estate plans to change its name to Beijing Huayuan New航控股股份有限公司 and focus on property management, hotel management, and long-term rental apartments [3][12]. - The company aims to create a business model centered around hotels, property management, and long-term rentals to diversify its operations and revitalize existing assets [2][3][12]. - The hotel business currently includes three product lines: city business hotels, city boutique hotels, and leisure resorts, with the Changsha Junyue Hotel being its most notable asset [3][6][8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the latest financial report, real estate development accounted for 93.07% of total revenue, generating 4.308 billion, while hotel and property services contributed only 6% combined [12][13]. - The hotel business generated 218 million in revenue, a 15% decrease year-on-year, while property services saw an 80.61% increase to 44.7368 million [12]. - The gross profit margin for the hotel business was 34.58%, which is significantly higher than the 14.27% margin from real estate development [12]. Group 3: Industry Context - The real estate industry is undergoing a transformation as companies seek new revenue streams amid a peak in property development [14][15]. - Several real estate firms, including Huayuan, have announced exits from traditional development to pursue lighter asset models, but the transition is challenging [16][18]. - Successful examples in the industry include companies like China Resources and Longfor, which have diversified their operations and achieved significant contributions from non-development businesses [18][20].

"这是非常好的消息。"与中国有商业往来的人士对阿根廷《号角报》表示，中国已经与其他国家有一些 类似的免签政策，但此前还没有给拉丁美洲大国类似待遇。秘鲁《面具周刊》称，此次免签政策有望进 一步促进秘中两国之间的贸易、学术和旅游交流。报道提到，中国目前是秘鲁主要贸易伙伴之一，在秘 鲁矿业、交通运输、基础设施等领域有大量投资。 近年来，中拉之间合作动向频繁。哥伦比亚《波哥大城市报》称，从秘鲁钱凯港的启动，到哥伦比亚首 都波哥大最大的公共交通项目，中拉双方的共同雄心已转化为务实进展。作为该地区第二大贸易伙伴， 中国与拉美国家的合作范围已不仅限于原材料和制成品，还包括绿色能源、数字创新等。面向拉美裔读 者的美国"Al Día"新闻网提到，哥伦比亚日前正式加入中国共建"一带一路"倡议，成为最新拥抱这一包 含基础设施和投资项目倡议的拉美国家。 美国"旅行与旅游世界"网站评论称，最新免签政策是中国与拉美地区日益密切的关系中的一个重要里程 碑。"中国不仅鼓励更多拉美国家游客到访，也为双方在贸易、科技等领域的深化合作打开了大门，预 计双方都将受益。"报道称，繁琐的签证程序被取消后，大量拉丁美洲游客进入中国，能够惠及中国的 航空公 ...

Core Insights - The April CPI data released by the U.S. Labor Department shows a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%, indicating a decline compared to February [1] - Year-on-year CPI growth is at 2.3%, the lowest level since February 2021, and core CPI growth is at 2.8%, matching expectations and previous values [1] - The overall inflation data is considered mild, but market expectations suggest inflation may rise due to U.S. trade policies [1] Inflation Components - Core goods prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, with new car prices unchanged and used car prices down by 0.5% [2] - Furniture and bedding prices rose from 0.6% to 1.5%, while appliance, toy, and sports equipment prices saw increases, reflecting the impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation [2] - Service inflation continues to decline, with housing inflation up by 0.3%, indicating persistent but stable housing inflation [2] Service Inflation Trends - Core service inflation excluding housing is at 3.01%, the lowest since December 2021, with healthcare and transportation services showing slight increases [3] - The labor market cooling and slowing wage growth are expected to contribute to a gradual decline in service inflation [3] - The stability of supply chains has reduced the risk of disruptions, allowing businesses to adjust and mitigate price increases [3] Consumer Behavior and Price Trends - Companies are reducing travel expenses, and consumers are cutting back on leisure spending, leading to a decrease in prices for flights and hotels [4] - OPEC+ has announced an increase in oil production, contributing to a continued decline in oil prices, which may offset inflationary pressures from tariffs [4] - The combined effects of reduced travel spending, falling oil prices, and slowing wage growth could counterbalance the inflation impact from tariffs [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by small foreign trade businesses in China due to rising tariffs and declining orders, leading many to consider transitioning to the tourism industry as a potential alternative for survival and growth [5][20][31]. Group 1: Challenges in Foreign Trade - Small foreign trade businesses, like those operated by individuals such as Xiaomei, are experiencing a significant decline in orders and are heavily impacted by high export tariffs [7][21]. - The recent pause in new tariffs between China and the U.S. has not brought much excitement, as uncertainty remains regarding future tariff policies [5][8]. - Many foreign trade operators are feeling the pressure of a volatile market, with Xiaomei expressing concerns about the unpredictability of tariffs and the overall business environment [8][22]. Group 2: Shift to Tourism Industry - There is a noticeable trend of foreign trade professionals, including Xiaomei and Xiaoshuai, considering a shift to the tourism industry due to the perceived lower barriers to entry and the current struggles in foreign trade [10][28]. - The tourism sector appears to be thriving, with significant increases in domestic travel and spending during holidays, suggesting a potential opportunity for those transitioning from foreign trade [26][27]. - The tourism industry is seen as a "light asset" business compared to manufacturing, attracting many foreign trade operators looking for new avenues [28][31]. Group 3: Economic Context and Future Outlook - The article highlights the long-term geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S., suggesting that the trade environment will remain unstable, prompting foreign trade professionals to seek alternative business models [32][34]. - Despite the allure of the tourism industry, the article warns that it is not without its challenges, including intense competition and the need for substantial market understanding [36][40]. - The overall sentiment is that merely switching industries without addressing underlying business acumen and market realities may lead to further difficulties, as the economic landscape continues to evolve [43][44].

Core Insights - The Chinese hotel industry is undergoing a significant efficiency revolution driven by AI technology, transforming service models and competitive logic [1][8] - AI is expected to replace a portion of hotel labor, potentially saving up to 30% in labor costs while shifting roles from repetitive tasks to high-value services [1][6] AI Implementation in Hotels - AI technologies such as smart front desk robots and AI digital managers are being integrated into hotel operations, enhancing efficiency and customer service [3][4] - Companies like Huazhu and Shoulv Rujia are leveraging AI for self-service check-ins and backend management, improving operational decision-making [3][4] Cost Reduction and Efficiency Gains - AI applications are reported to reduce labor costs by 30% and improve operational efficiency by 50% in processes like order inquiries and room assignments [6][4] - The use of AI digital managers has allowed hotel groups to automate 60% of repetitive tasks, freeing up human resources for more strategic roles [4][6] Market Trends and Challenges - The hotel industry is facing declining average daily rates (ADR) and occupancy rates (OCC), prompting a focus on cost reduction through AI [7][6] - Despite the benefits, challenges remain in AI adoption, including technology maturity and employee skill gaps [8][9] Future Outlook - The trend towards increased digital training and skill enhancement in the hotel workforce is expected to continue, with a shift towards a more technology-driven operational model [10][9] - The integration of AI is anticipated to evolve the hotel industry from a labor-intensive model to a human-machine collaborative approach [8][10]

01 先上数据： 万豪国际集团全球RevPAR同比增长4.1%，大中华区RevPAR（每间可供租出客房产生的平均实际营业收入）同比下降2%； 这两天，我刷了一圈外资酒店集团的2025年第一季度财报，发现数据清晰地呈现出一个尴尬趋势： 中国市场正成为国际酒店集团们的滑铁卢。 希尔顿集团全球RevPAR同比增长2.5%，中国区RevPAR同比下降3.1%; 洲际酒店集团全球RevPAR同比增长 3.3%，唯独大中华区下降了3.5%。 这三组数字不需要任何渲染，已经足够直观，曾经被誉为最具潜力酒店市场的中国，如今在外资酒店全球版图里却像一块越来越沉的石头，拖累了他们的 业绩表现。 数据掉了，高管们的解释也很苍白敷衍。 比如，万豪CEO卡普埃诺在财报会上提到："中国市场表现不佳，主要受宏观经济疲软以及去年同期基数较高的影响，但尽管如此，整体业绩还是好于我 们此前的预期。" 这话翻译一下：中国经济不好加去年太赚，所以今年这样也不算太差，听上去好像说得通，但仔细一琢磨又好像在骂人：我们万豪预见你们中国市场会下 降，少降当赢啦。 然后，轮到希尔顿CFO Jacobs登场时，老哥也在财报会上把业绩下降归结为"去年基数高"和" ...