工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 点评 25 日多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2508 收于 30625 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.59%，持 仓增仓 7821 手至 80107 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格跌至 35500 元/ 吨，最低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 34500 元/吨，现货对主力升水扩至 3875 元/吨。工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2509 收于 7555 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.55%，持仓增仓 13217 手至 30.7 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8636 元/ 吨，较上一交易日持稳。最低交割品#553 价格降至 7600 元/吨，现货升 水收至 60 元/吨。西南复产增速进入瓶颈期，下游稍有排产放量，需求短 期回暖，硅厂重拾封盘不报策略，工业硅止跌但反弹难及前高。多晶硅西 南复产增量明确，终端自下而上压价，仍以偏空思路对待。月内双硅边际 或有短暂分歧，持续关注双硅比价关系，PS-SI 价差收敛机会。 工业硅日报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 | | 分 项 | | 2025/6/24 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - For lead, downstream has not entered the peak season, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation, but scrap batteries remain tight, losses of secondary lead smelters are expanding, and the start - up is uncertain. Some enterprises have suspended shipments, so the lead price has strong support below, and it will maintain range consolidation in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the improvement of the demand side and macro uncertainties [1]. - For zinc, after the zinc price drops, downstream buyers place orders at low prices, and spot trading has improved. The Shanghai zinc price has stopped falling and rebounded. However, considering the supply - side suppression and inventory accumulation expectations, the rebound space of the zinc price may be limited, and it will maintain range consolidation in the short term. The strategy is still to short on rallies [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Spread**: SMM1 lead ingot average price is 16,925.00 yuan/ton, up 1.04%; Shanghai lead futures main contract closing price is 17,165.00 yuan/ton, up 1.24%; Shanghai lead basis is - 240.00 yuan/ton, down 35.00 yuan; various spreads and premiums have different changes [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Futures active contract trading volume is 36,222.00 lots, up 5.29%; open interest is 15,153.00 lots, down 22.53%; trading volume to open interest ratio is 2.39, up 35.91% [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 275,250.00 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warrant inventory is 44,667.00 tons, up 0.97% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, scrap lead - acid battery prices are rising, recyclers' supplies are limited, and secondary lead smelters are forced to raise prices. Some smelters reduce or stop production due to raw material shortages or cost inversions, and the start - up is at a relatively low level. Some enterprises hold back goods due to losses, and the secondary lead finished product inventory continues to increase. On the demand side, it is gradually shifting from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream purchases are expected to improve [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price is 22,130.00 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; Shanghai zinc futures main contract closing price is 22,045.00 yuan/ton, up 0.57%; Shanghai zinc basis is 85.00 yuan/ton, down 75.00 yuan; various spreads and premiums have different changes [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Futures active contract trading volume is 158,531.00 lots, down 14.77%; open interest is 129,865.00 lots, up 6.91%; trading volume to open interest ratio is 1.22, down 20.28% [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 122,875.00 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warrant inventory is 7,169.00 tons, down 4.04% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc ore processing fees continue to rise. The raw material shortage's restriction on smelter production has weakened, and the cost - side support has weakened. On the demand side, the south is gradually entering the rainy season, and terminal construction is restricted, so downstream purchases of zinc ingots are for rigid demand [1]. Other Information - Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Non - ferrous Metals Co., Ltd.'s "Nanhua" brand lead ingots are approved to be registered on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with a registered production capacity of 11.6 tons and subject to the standard price [1]. - As of the end of May, the total number of 5G base stations reached 4.486 million, a net increase of 235,000 from the end of last year, accounting for 35.3% of the total number of mobile base stations, 0.4 percentage points higher than in the previous four months [1]. - On June 24, [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a discount of 20.17 US dollars/ton, with an open interest of 212,837 lots, an increase of 2,923 lots; [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 24.13 US dollars/ton, with an open interest of 153,024 lots, a decrease of 1,007 lots [1].

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 26 日星期四 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the US President's announcement of talks with Iran eases risk aversion, and the market expects the Fed to resume its rate - cut cycle, weakening the short - term US dollar index and increasing global risk appetite. Domestically, policies to support consumption and a relaxation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boost domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index rebounds in the short - term, treasury bonds are volatile at a high level, and different commodity sectors show different short - term trends [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as finance, military, and artificial intelligence, the domestic stock market rises. With policy stimulus and a reduction in geopolitical risks, the short - term trading strategy is to cautiously go long [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: They are volatile at a high level in the short - term, and the recommended strategy is to cautiously wait and see [3]. Precious Metals - After Iran and Israel declared a cease - fire, the safe - haven demand for precious metals weakened. Hawkish remarks from Powell and the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates, along with a deterioration in US consumer confidence, have put short - term pressure on precious metals [5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel decline slightly. Demand continues to weaken, but supply is unlikely to decrease significantly due to expanding profits. The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [6][7]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore decline slightly. With rising iron - water production and inventory replenishment by steel mills, and high supply expectations, the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices are flat. Demand is okay in the short - term, but supply may increase. With potential supply disruptions in manganese mines, the market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and prices may decline if oil prices fall [8]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: It oscillates strongly. Supply is abundant, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short - term [9]. - **Glass**: It also oscillates strongly. Supply is for just - in - time production, demand is weak, and profits are low. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Due to difficulties in US - EU trade negotiations and potential tariffs, along with high production and potential demand weakening, the short - term trend is uncertain, and future negotiations and tariff policies need to be monitored [10]. - **Aluminum**: With eased geopolitical tensions, the price rises. However, inventory accumulation may signal a turning point, and demand may weaken in the future [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, weak demand is offset by tight scrap aluminum supply, so the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term with limited upside [11]. - **Tin**: The price rises due to slow mine复产 in Myanmar and tight domestic supply. Despite being in the off - season with weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term but with limited upside [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price rebounds and oscillates. Supply increases while demand weakens, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short - term and go short in the medium - term [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It moves sideways. With weak supply and demand and a rebound in coal prices, the recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short - term and go short in the medium - term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: It remains weak. With limited room for a decline in supply and downward pressure on demand, the supply - demand contradiction may intensify if the photovoltaic industry cuts production [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's pressure on Iran and a decline in EIA inventory keep the oil price oscillating in the short - term [15]. - **Asphalt**: It follows the oil price and oscillates. With improved shipping but increasing inventory, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [15]. - **PX**: It has strong cost support but faces a risk of decline. It will follow the oil price and oscillate weakly in the short - term [15]. - **PTA**: The basis remains strong, demand is weakening, and there is downward pressure in the short - term [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: With stable overseas production and low basis, the short - term de - stocking drive is low, and it will run weakly and stably [16]. - **Short - fiber**: It will follow the decline in the oil price and oscillate weakly in the medium - term, with high inventory and weak demand [16]. - **Methanol**: The price may decline in the short - term but is expected to oscillate strongly due to potential supply shortages [16]. - **PP**: With increasing production and weakening downstream demand, the price is expected to decline [17]. - **LLDPE**: With stable production and demand and falling oil prices, the price is expected to weaken and fluctuate strongly in the short - term [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price falls due to the impact of soybean oil and crude oil, and favorable weather in the US Midwest may further pressure the price [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply - demand situation is gradually easing, and the price may decline in the short - term. Attention should be paid to weather, policies, and import supply [18]. - **Oils and Fats**: The previous rally may reverse due to falling crude oil prices and changes in palm oil supply and demand [18]. - **Corn**: With changes in inventory and market supply, the price may consolidate at a high level in the short - term [18]. - **Hogs**: The market has a low expectation for price increases in July, and the price may decline in the short - term, with continued selling pressure on the LH09 contract [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. For example, the stock index is strong due to the improved macro - situation, while the bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw and capital interest rates. Precious metals are influenced by geopolitical events and Fed's attitude towards interest rates. Different commodities in the futures market also have their own supply - demand and price trends [2][6][10]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, A - shares opened higher and rose throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.68%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.30%. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose with the index, but the basis was deeply discounted [2][3]. - **News**: Domestically, important meetings were held, and a grand celebration for the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War was announced. Overseas, Trump criticized the Fed's interest - rate policy, and Iran and Israel declared a cease - fire [3][4]. - **Funding**: On June 24, A - share trading volume increased significantly. The central bank conducted 4065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 2092 billion yuan [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Given the current basis rate of the main contracts, with relatively stable support below the index and the need for a driving force for upward breakthrough, it is recommended to try a covered combination strategy on the CSI 1000 variety [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose [6]. - **Funding**: The central bank's reverse repurchase operation volume increased, and MLF was incrementally renewed. The market sentiment was relatively stable, and the end - of - quarter capital fluctuations were expected to be controllable [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Although the bond market is under short - term pressure, the overall pattern may remain strong. It is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions on dips, pay attention to economic data and capital trends, and consider positive arbitrage and curve - steepening strategies [8][9]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Due to the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, the risk - aversion sentiment subsided, and Fed Chairman Powell was cautious about interest - rate cuts. Precious metals tumbled during the session but recovered some losses at the end of the session [10][13]. - **Future Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend, but in the short term, it lacks a clear driving force and faces risks. Silver is supported by factors such as the recovery of the photovoltaic and semiconductor industries, but the upward drive is weakened. It is recommended to continue selling out - of - the - money call options on gold and try the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money options on silver [13][14]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Price**: As of June 24, shipping companies' prices varied. The SCFIS and SCFI indices showed different trends [15]. - **Fundamentals**: Global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the PMI data of major economies reflected the demand situation [15]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The futures price is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to closely observe the shipping company's quotes in late July [16]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: On June 24, the average price of electrolytic copper increased slightly, but the premium decreased, and the overall trading was average [17]. - **Macro**: The COMEX - LME premium is controversial, and the Fed's economic outlook is moving towards "stagflation", which restricts the upward and downward space of copper prices [18][21]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of copper concentrate is tight, the production of refined copper increases, and the "rush - to - export" demand continues, but it may overdraw future demand. The inventory situation is complex, with COMEX inventory accumulating and domestic inventory slightly decreasing [19][20]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 77000 - 80000 [21]. Alumina - **Spot**: On June 24, the spot price of alumina in various regions decreased [21][22]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production increased in May, and the inventory situation is complex. The market is in a state of oversupply in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [22][23]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On June 24, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [23]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of electrolytic aluminum is stable, the downstream start - up rate is under pressure, and the inventory decline rate slows down. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level [24][25]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On June 24, the spot price of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [25]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand of the recycled aluminum alloy market are both weak, but the demand side is more prominent. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [26][27]. Zinc - **Spot**: On June 24, the average price of zinc ingots increased, but the market trading was dull [27]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, the demand is weakening, and the low inventory provides support. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 21000 - 21500 [28][30]. Tin - **Spot**: On June 24, the price of tin increased, but the trading was cold. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in a seasonal off - peak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies [30][31][33]. Nickel - **Spot**: On June 24, the price of electrolytic nickel decreased [33]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of refined nickel is at a high level, the demand is stable but with limited growth, and the inventory situation is complex. The price is expected to be weak and fluctuate in a range [34][35]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: On June 24, the price of stainless steel decreased [36]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory situation is complex. The price is expected to be weak and run in a range [37][39]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: On June 24, the price of lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading did not improve significantly [40]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is relatively high, the demand is stable but difficult to boost in the off - peak season, and the inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to be weak and run in a range, and it is recommended to short on rallies [41][43]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price is stable, and the basis has weakened. The price is expected to weaken again in the off - peak season, and it is recommended to try short positions or sell out - of - the - money call options [44][45][46]. Iron Ore - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of mainstream iron ore powder has changed slightly, and the futures price has fluctuated. The demand for iron water is high, but there is a risk of weakening in the off - peak season. The supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be in the range of 670 - 720 [47][48]. Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price is weakly stable, and the futures price fluctuates. The supply is affected by environmental protection and other factors, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to short - term buy on dips and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [49][52]. Coke - **Spot and Futures**: The fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills has been implemented, and the price is close to the bottom. The supply is tightening marginally, the demand has rigid support, and the inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [53][56]. Ferrosilicon - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price fluctuates. The supply increases slightly, the demand has some changes, and the cost is expected to decline. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to short on rallies [57][58]. Manganese Silicon - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates. The supply increases slightly, the demand has some changes, and the cost is difficult to stabilize. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to short on rallies [60][62].

文字早评 2025/06/25 星期三 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+1.15%，创指+2.30%，科创 50+1.79%，北证 50+3.65%，上证 50+1.16%，沪深 300+1.20%， 中证 500+1.62%，中证 1000+1.92%，中证 2000+2.22%，万得微盘+2.72%。两市合计成交 14146 亿，较上 一日+2920 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、伊朗和以色列已同意在 24 小时之内分阶段 "全面停火"，停火于周二开始，这场"持续 12 天的战 争"将正式结束。 2、央行：将研究制定新阶段金融科技发展规划，出台深化运用金融科技推动金融数字化智能化转型的 政策文件。 3、商务部将组织开展 2025 年千县万镇新能源汽车消费季活动，活动时间为 2025 年 7 月至 12 月。通知 指出，各地要认真落实汽车以旧换新政策，在新能源汽车消费季活动场地内普遍设置汽车以旧换新专区， 更好满足县乡地区群众多样化购车需求。 资金面：融资额+42.24 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+0.30bp 至 1.370%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-0.40bp 至 2.8716 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance in the non-ferrous metals market, influenced by supply and demand factors [1] - Copper prices in Shanghai rose to 78,415 yuan, with a narrowing premium in both Shanghai and Guangdong [1] - The aluminum market showed a decline, with an increase in inventory by 15,000 tons, indicating early signs of seasonal demand weakness [1] Group 2 - The market is experiencing significant divergence, with concerns over supply disruptions easing following a ceasefire in Israel and Palestine [1] - The aluminum and casting aluminum alloy price gap remains large, while the price difference between AL_2511 and AD2511 is only around 400 yuan, suggesting potential trading opportunities [1] - Zinc supply continues to recover, but demand remains weak, leading to a bearish outlook for the zinc market despite recent price rebounds [1]

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 24 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 股指期货：A 股低开高走， ...

铜、铝短期调整或开启 20250622 摘要 电解铝库存下降反映铝水比提升趋势，未来库存或维持低位，需综合考 虑电解铝及铝棒库存数据，上周数据显示铝棒库存及毛利率显著上涨， 行业进入垒库周期，景气下行周期确立。 氧化铝供需偏过剩，价格预计在 2,800-2,900 元区间运行，受限于成本 线。电解铝供给受限，需求或边际走弱，整体利润水平预计维持在 3,000 元上下。 短期铅价受宏观情绪修复和低库存影响出现逼仓，现货价格高于期货。 但宏观和交易层面已达高点，开始回归基本面，全产业链库存开始累库， 加工费下降，短期调整已来临。 美国关税影响有限，电解铝和铜的关键整数位（19,500 元和 75,000 元）成为心理支撑位。季节性波动下，全成本曲线支撑适用，电解铝和 铜分别在 19,000 元以上和 72,000-73,000 元形成较强支撑。 铜市场供需双弱，厂库和社库开始累库，加工费走弱，需求边际走弱。 供给侧受废铜供应紧张和矿端问题扰动，如卡莫阿和卡莫拉矿区矿震导 致减产，短期调整幅度有限。 Q&A 请介绍一下近期铝市场的动态和趋势。 近期铝市场出现了一轮强劲的底部行情，主要受电解铝库存数据影响。电解铝 库 ...

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 氧化铝供应小幅增加， 关注中东局势对商品影响 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 6 22 | 月 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★氧化铝供应小幅增加，关注中东局势对商品影响 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格短期暂稳，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 700 元/吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 668 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿 的到厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。山西地区前期入驻的检查组工 作尚未结束, 矿山开工较前期无明显变化。河南地区矿山同样面 临政府常规化检查。在供给量有所减少的背景下，晋豫两地铝土 矿价格维持坚挺。南方主产区进入传统雨季，后续矿山将面临季 节性考验。进口方面，几内亚高品位铝土矿（45/3）成交价稳定 在 75 美元/干吨。目前矿商对 7 月后资源报价均于 CIF 77 美元/ 吨之上。下游铝企采购需求已呈现阶段性饱和态势。用户采购意 向多集中于 CIF 65-70 美元/吨。几内亚雨 ...