Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a decline, with major indices falling over 1%, and the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4082.07, down 1.26% [2][4] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14100.19, down 1.28%, while the CSI 300 Index ended at 4660.41, down 1.25% [2][4] - The ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index also saw declines of 1.57% and 0.72%, respectively [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Comprehensive (+2.06%) and Defense Industry (+0.65%), while the worst-performing sectors were Non-ferrous Metals (-3.36%) and Building Materials (-3.10%) [3] - Concept sectors that performed well included Digital Watermarking (+1.09%) and Ride-hailing (+0.80%), whereas F5G Concept (-2.56%) and Special Steel Concept (-2.47%) lagged [3] Future Outlook - The report indicates that despite the recent market downturn, the long-term outlook for the A-share market remains positive due to reasonable valuations and supportive policy signals [4][5] - The macroeconomic recovery is expected to strengthen, with potential for the market to stabilize and rebound as favorable factors materialize [5] - Investors are advised to maintain rational judgment and adopt a balanced strategy, focusing on core assets with solid fundamentals and high profit certainty [5]

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 2 月 24 日 星期二 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 节前最后一个交易日两市主要指数调整。两市成交额 1.98 万亿元，变化不大。沪 | | | | 深 | 300 指数收 4660 点，跌 59 点，跌幅-1.25%；上证 50 指数收 3034 点，跌 45 点， | | | | | 跌幅-1.47%；中证 500 指数收 8299 点，跌 123 点，跌幅-1.47%；中证 1000 指数收 | | | | | 8204 点，跌 110 点，跌幅-1.32%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是航空航天 ETF、 | | | | | 中韩半导体 ETF、军工龙头 ETF、科创半导体 ETF、影视 ETF，跌幅居前的是油气 ETF | | | | | 博时、石油 ...

来源：新浪证券-红岸工作室 2月13日，中信证券跌0.90%，成交额30.33亿元。两融数据显示，当日中信证券获融资买入额3.05亿 元，融资偿还5.06亿元，融资净买入-2.02亿元。截至2月13日，中信证券融资融券余额合计188.05亿 元。 融资方面，中信证券当日融资买入3.05亿元。当前融资余额187.85亿元，占流通市值的5.59%，融资余 额超过近一年70%分位水平，处于较高位。 融券方面，中信证券2月13日融券偿还1.48万股，融券卖出5.18万股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额 143.07万元；融券余量71.02万股，融券余额1961.57万元，低于近一年30%分位水平，处于低位。 资料显示，中信证券股份有限公司位于广东省深圳市福田区中心3路8号中信证券大厦,北京市朝阳区亮 马桥路48号中信证券大厦,香港中环添美道1号中信大厦26层，成立日期1995年10月25日，上市日期2003 年1月6日，公司主营业务涉及证券经纪、证券承销与保荐、证券资产管理、证券自营等业务等。主营业 务收入构成为：证券投资业务43.88%，经纪业务28.21%，资产管理业务18.21%，证券承销业务6.22%， 其他业务 ...

因此，华福证券认为，中长期而言，全球关税政策和地缘政治的不确定性背景下，避险和滞涨交易仍是黄金交易的核 心，长期配置价值不改。 【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间2月24日凌晨，国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨3.29%报5247.90美元/ 盎司，COMEX白银期货涨6.87%报88.00美元/盎司。 东吴证券也认为，中长期来看，"去美元化"叙事仍难以证伪，黄金依然处于上行区间；同时，美国关税收入预期落空 引发了市场对美国财政赤字的担忧，四季度GDP增速显著低于市场预期，滞胀预期升温下，贵金属为代表的抗通胀品 种受益。 华福证券近日发布研报指出，美国一系列宏观经济数据发布，就业数据韧性及美联储官员一系列偏鹰派言论削弱市场 降息预期，市场主流对首次降息预期从此前6月延后至7月；但美国非农数据的亮眼表现难掩其经济结构脆弱性本质， 市场更倾向于其为美联储为后续政策保留空间的预期管理手段，且由于近年来相关数据的大幅下修的失真表现，市场 对实际就业市场情况存在分歧。 ...

Group 1: A-Share Strategy - The core viewpoint suggests a "mixed strong fluctuation" in the A-share market, recommending a cautious approach with a focus on observing rather than acting in the short term, while maintaining a "systematic slow bull" mindset for medium-term holdings [2][3] - During the holiday period, the A50 index rose by 1.39%, while the US Nasdaq and S&P 500 increased by 1.51% and 1.07% respectively, indicating mixed market factors [2] - The report anticipates that short-term opportunities may arise in AI applications and robotics sectors, which have overseas correlations and cultural relevance to the Spring Festival [2][3] Group 2: Macro Research - The macroeconomic analysis indicates a shift in the US stock market towards defensive strategies, with dividend and value stocks outperforming, while technology stocks face increased pressure [4] - Factors driving this shift include heightened geopolitical tensions, a decline in global risk appetite, and the Federal Reserve's tightening policies, which may lead to sustained high interest rates [4]

| 美股重要指数区间涨跌幅（%） | 2月16日-2月20日 | | --- | --- | | 费城半导体指数 | 1.51 | | 纳斯达克指数 | 1.51 | | 标普500 | 1.07 | | 罗素2000指数 | 0.65 | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 0.25 | | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数 | -0.55 | 【环球网财经综合报道】Wind数据显示，近十年春节假期后A股首个交易日，上证指数、创业板指上涨 概率均达六成，与此同时，多家券商机构针对节后A股行情做出预判。 开源证券复盘春节后市场规律发现，节后5个、10个、20个交易日内，市场上涨概率逐步提升，大盘日 渐回暖；风格上，呈现"中小盘优于大盘，成长占优"的特征，市场以追求超额为目的。 东吴证券提出，历史上A股"春节效应"特征显著，节后资金有望"重振旗鼓"带动量价共振修复，A股有 望迎来积极开局；产业趋势层面，机器人、国产大模型在内的科技主线在假期期间持续发酵。 中信建投也认为，春节期间全球股市整体强势，无重大风险事件，当前市场情绪仍然高涨，节后A股有 望开启新一轮上行。行业配置上继续坚持"科技 资源品"双主线；其中科技主线以AI、人形机器人 ...

居民存款同比少增、非银存款同比多增现象在1月持续。 今年1月，人民币存款同比大幅多增。居民存款同比少增、非银存款同比多增现象在1月持续。 数据显示，1月人民币存款同比多增3.8万亿，存款开门红增长势头较好；其中，在去年同期低基数及年 初权益市场牛市行情影响下，非银存款新增1.5万亿，同比多增2.6万亿，而居民存款新增2.1万亿，同比 少增3.4万亿。 自2025年以来，居民存款增速逐步回落、非银存款持续多增的现象备受市场关注。这一存款结构的调 整，既反映出居民财富从传统存款向资管产品迁移的趋势，也让各方对银行体系流动性状况的关注日益 增加。 非银存款多增持续 数据显示，1月人民币存款增加8.09万亿元。其中，居民存款增加2.13万亿元，非金融企业存款增加2.61 万亿元，财政性存款增加1.55万亿元，非银行业金融机构存款增加1.45万亿元。 与往年相比，1月人民币存款新增规模大幅高于2025年同期的4.32万亿，且处于近年最高位置。居民存 款较2025年同期少增3.39万亿，非银金融存款则较2025年同期多增2.56万亿。 1月非银存款多增现象是多重因素共同作用的结果。去年同期低基数以及年初股市活跃吸引居民存 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations and declines due to the Chinese New Year holiday, with a recommendation to focus on sectors such as precious metals, energy, consumer, and technology for potential investment opportunities [1][5]. Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market had only two trading days during the week (February 16 to February 20), with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.58%, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 2.78%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreasing by 0.81% [2]. - Among the primary industries, eight sectors rose while three fell, with energy, materials, and industrial sectors showing the highest gains of 3.65%, 2.27%, and 1.03% respectively. Conversely, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and communication services sectors faced declines of 1.86%, 1.50%, and 0.13% respectively [2]. Market Liquidity - Due to the holiday, the Hong Kong market had a half-day trading session on February 16, with a trading volume of HKD 85.056 billion. On February 20, the trading volume was HKD 165.461 billion, lower than the previous week's average of HKD 240.643 billion [3]. - Short selling amounted to HKD 23.727 billion, representing 14.43% of the total, significantly higher than the previous week's average of 12.56% [3]. - Over the past week, there was a net inflow of USD 321 million from active foreign funds and USD 697 million from passive foreign funds into Hong Kong stocks, both lower than the previous week's inflows [3]. Valuation and Risk Appetite - As of February 20, the Hang Seng Index had a PE ratio of 12.09 and a PB ratio of 1.23, which are at the 79% and 55% percentile levels since 2010 [4]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 4 basis points to 4.08%, with the risk premium for the Hang Seng Index at 4.19%, positioned at the 5% percentile since 2010 [4]. - The AH share premium index for the Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Connect decreased by 1.02 points to 116.40, at the 9% percentile level since 2014 [4]. Investment Outlook - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 was revised down to an annualized rate of 1.4%, below the expected 2.5% and the revised 4.4% from Q3 [5]. - President Trump announced an increase in the import tariff on global goods from 10% to 15% [5]. - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as precious metals and energy due to rising geopolitical risks and adjustments in U.S. tariff policies, as well as the consumer sector, which is expected to benefit from increased consumption policies [5]. The technology sector remains a long-term investment focus, with potential rebounds anticipated due to advancements in AI [5].

中信证券首席经济学家明明、创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春、粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒、川财 证券首席经济学家陈雳、东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲等五位资深专家普遍认为，面对国内外复杂的经济 金融环境，进一步巩固市场稳中向好的势头，需要市场多维发力、综合施策，既要以"稳"化解内外风 险，又要以"改"激发市场活力，持续引"长钱"入市降低市场非理性波动，同时提升市场回报能力增强投 资者信心，通过系统施策，夯实市场长期健康发展根基，更好助力经济高质量发展。（证券日报） ...

Group 1: Market Influences - The key events impacting the market during the holiday include the Trump tariff situation, the "Robot + AI Technology Spring Festival Gala," the strong appreciation of the RMB to the 6.89 range, and escalating changes in the Middle East situation [1] - The "2026 Spring Festival box office surpassing 5 billion" is highlighted as an industry bright spot that will positively catalyze related A-share sectors [1] Group 2: Trump Tariff Situation - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that tariffs imposed by Trump under the IEEPA were unconstitutional, leading to a new 10% temporary import tariff effective February 24, with certain exemptions [3] - Analysts predict that the average tariff rate on China may temporarily decrease by 5 percentage points, while specific estimates suggest a potential 34% reduction in tariffs faced by mainland China [4] Group 3: Human-shaped Robot Industry - The 2026 Spring Festival Gala showcased several domestic humanoid robots, significantly boosting interest in the humanoid robot sector, with related stocks in Hong Kong experiencing a surge [5] - Reports indicate that the Spring Festival Gala has catalyzed significant attention and investment in the humanoid robot industry, with expectations for accelerated production and improved technology [5] Group 4: RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB showed strong appreciation during the holiday, entering the 6.89 range against the USD, primarily due to a weakening dollar rather than a strengthening RMB [7] - Analysts forecast that the RMB could reach an extreme value of 6.8 against the USD, with long-term appreciation expected as a result of ongoing dollar weakness [7] Group 5: Middle East Situation - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased demand for safe-haven assets, with U.S. military forces gathering in the region, impacting oil prices positively [8] - The uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation is expected to benefit sectors such as gold and oil, which may see short-term market opportunities [9] Group 6: A-share Market Outlook - Multiple brokerages express a cautious optimism regarding the A-share market post-holiday, with expectations of a "systematic slow bull" opportunity [10] - Analysts suggest that the strong performance of the Spring Festival box office indicates a recovery in the film industry, recommending attention to quality film production companies and leading cinema chains [12]