Report Title - Nickel & Stainless Steel Monthly Strategy Report, March 2026 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the tightening of nickel ore quotas and the reality and expectation of a shortage in nickel ore supply, the premium of nickel ore has gradually strengthened to $35 - $40 per wet ton, and the price of nickel iron has also strengthened, leading to an upward shift in the support for the pyrometallurgical process of nickel prices. After the holiday, it enters the traditional peak season, and the demand has improved month - on - month. Stainless steel experiences seasonal inventory accumulation after the holiday, and the crude steel production schedule in March has increased month - on - month, with relatively firm cost support. In the new energy sector, according to third - party data, the production schedule of ternary materials in March has also increased. Fundamentally, cost is the core support. Currently, the inventory pressure of primary nickel is still high based on weekly data. Opportunities for light - position trial long positions near the cost line can still be continuously monitored, along with the inventory situation of primary nickel. If the subsequent visible inventory can be significantly depleted, it may have a further positive feedback on prices. Additionally, overseas macro risks need to be vigilant [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price - In February, nickel prices fluctuated widely. The monthly decline of SHFE nickel was 0.7%, and the decline of LME nickel was 2.2% [6]. 3.2 Inventory - During the week, LME inventory increased by 270 tons to 287,976 tons; SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 27 tons to 53,131 tons, social inventory increased by 2,036 tons to 76,538 tons, and bonded - area inventory remained at 2,200 tons [6][16]. 3.3 Supply 3.3.1 Nickel Ore - The premium of Indonesian nickel ore increased by $4.5 per ton to $37 per wet ton. The premium of 1.5% nickel ore from the Philippines increased by $1 per ton to $8.0 per wet ton [4][6][22]. 3.3.2 Refined Nickel - In February, the estimated production of electrolytic nickel decreased by 5% month - on - month to 35,800 tons [6]. 3.3.3 Nickel Iron - The mainstream market quotes are concentrated at 1,080 - 1,100 yuan per nickel (including tax at the hatch), and some scattered orders are quoted as high as 1,130 - 1,150 yuan per nickel [4][6][25]. 3.3.4 Intermediate Products - The discount decreased slightly month - on - month, the spot price weakened, and trading activity declined [4][6]. 3.4 Demand 3.4.1 New Energy - The weekly production of ternary materials decreased by 664 tons to 15,617 tons, and the inventory decreased by 533 tons to 17,234 tons. The weekly production increased by 11.6% to 26 GWh, among which the production of lithium - iron batteries increased by 11.1% to 20 GWh, and the production of ternary batteries increased by 13.2% to 6 GWh. The Passenger Car Association predicts that after the holiday, the price - cut promotion ability of new - energy vehicle manufacturers will decline. The weak price elasticity will make consumers more cautious, and it may suppress the normal release of car - buying demand in the short term. However, anti - involution in prices is a long - term benefit, which helps to improve the wait - and - see sentiment in car - buying and guide the healthy development of industrial consumption [4][6][46]. 3.4.2 Stainless Steel - This month, the overall price of stainless steel decreased slightly, and the price strengthened again in the past week. The total social inventory of stainless steel in 89 warehouses of the national mainstream market was 1.173 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.57%. Among them, the inventory of the 300 series increased by 80,000 tons to 729,000 tons. According to Mysteel, the crude steel production schedule in March is 3.6335 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 32.69% and a year - on - year increase of 3.46%. Among them, the 200 series is 1.0771 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.18% and a year - on - year increase of 11.63%; the 300 series is 1.8948 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 43.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.37%; the 400 series is 661,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.02% and a year - on - year increase of 2.51%. Raw materials are stronger than finished products, and the spot profit has weakened slightly [4][6][57]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - Not provided in detail in the content 3.6 Options - Charts related to historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and the put - call ratio of open interest and trading volume of SHFE nickel options are presented [90][91][95]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the non-ferrous metals sector in the A-share market since 2025, highlighting its strong performance and questioning whether it is still a good time to invest, given the changes in the underlying logic of price increases [4]. Group 1: Changes in Upward Logic - The current rally in non-ferrous metals is driven by improvements in supply and demand structures rather than mere speculative sentiment. The ongoing global electrification process is boosting demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum, while supply remains constrained due to insufficient capital expenditure and stricter environmental regulations [6]. - Initially, the price increases were primarily driven by "profit recovery," but the market is now beginning to reflect future profit expectations, leading to a shift towards "trend-driven" investment. This transition is expected to increase volatility in the market [7][8]. Group 2: Current Valuation Position - Non-ferrous metals are currently not considered cheap, with the industry PE (TTM) at approximately 60% of the historical range, while the PB ratio is nearing 100%, indicating a historically high valuation. This suggests that the market's pricing of assets is becoming aggressive, and caution is advised regarding the "low PE" appearance [10]. - The performance of various indices shows that the non-ferrous metals sector has seen a significant increase of 137.46% since 2025, with a near 100% PB ratio, indicating a high valuation level compared to historical data [11]. Group 3: ETF Fund Flows - Over the past year, the scale of non-ferrous metal-themed ETFs has expanded significantly, with notable net inflows and high trading activity, indicating continued participation from trend-driven funds. However, the rapid expansion of ETF sizes may lead to increased concentration of holdings, which could amplify volatility during market corrections [15]. - The article lists the top ten ETFs by net inflow, with significant contributions from funds focused on non-ferrous metals, indicating strong interest in this sector [16]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - For trend traders, as long as the driving factors and supply-demand dynamics remain unchanged, there may still be opportunities for continued gains, although the current high volatility requires careful position management [17]. - Mid-term investors should be cautious due to high valuations and crowded positions, suggesting a phased approach to investment rather than a lump-sum entry [18]. - Long-term strategic investors may still find value in the non-ferrous metals sector due to ongoing global resource constraints and energy transition trends, recommending dollar-cost averaging or contrarian strategies to smooth out volatility [19]. Group 5: Recommended Funds - The article suggests several public funds for consideration, including: 1. Southern CSI Non-Ferrous Metals ETF Link A (004432), tracking the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index [20]. 2. Huaxia CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Theme ETF Link A (016707), focusing on larger, liquid stocks in the non-ferrous metals and mining sectors [20]. 3. Qianhai Kaiyuan Hong Kong-Shenzhen Core Resource Flexible Allocation Mixed A (003304), which emphasizes gold and small metal-related stocks [21].

【华宝期货】有色金属周报 华宝期货 2026.3.2 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 目录 01 有色周度行情回顾 02 本周有色行情预判 03 品种数据（铝、锌、锡、碳酸锂） 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | | 現货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2026.2.27 | 2026. 2. 13 | 周变动 | 周张跌幅 | | | 2026.2.27 2026.2.13 | 周变动 | | | 铜 | CU2604 | 103920 | 100380 | 3540 | 3. 53% | 中国:平均价:铜:上海物贸 | 102140 | 100365 | 1775 | 1.77% | | 铝 | AL2604 ...

期货研究报告 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：闾振兴 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03104274 投资咨询证号：Z0018163 电话：0571-87633890 邮箱：lvzhenxing@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 3 月 2 日 铜铝周报 有色继续维持震荡 核心观点 铜：震荡中等待新驱动 节后外盘铜价震荡偏强运行，沪铜整体表现平稳，整体持仓小幅增 加。铜市自 2 月初的冲高回落后，维持横盘震荡，说明在去除情绪溢价 之后，铜市依然有较坚实的基本面支撑。 对于铜市而言，中周期的逻辑依然要关注 AI 和新能源等边际增量 带来的驱动，其次是产业供需表现。节后国内流动性恢复叠加下游补库 需求或能给予铜价支撑。可持续关注国内库存情况以及产业下游补库情 况。 铝：春节铝价先抑后扬，节后产业支撑 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on precious metals and strategic minor metals due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The escalation of the US-Iran conflict is expected to drive up gold prices as a safe-haven asset, with significant geopolitical uncertainty influencing market sentiment [1][15]. - Zimbabwe's suspension of lithium ore exports is likely to lead to an increase in lithium prices, as the country holds approximately 126 million tons of lithium resources [2][16]. - Renewed armed conflicts in northern Myanmar have raised concerns about the supply chain for tin, although immediate disruptions are not yet evident [3][17]. - The US Supreme Court ruled that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful, but former President Trump announced plans to implement higher tariffs under a different legal framework [4][18]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant increase of 9.77%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.79 percentage points during the reporting period [8]. Key Focus Areas & Metal Prices - **Industrial Metals**: Short-term fluctuations are expected, with copper prices at $13,296 per ton, up 2.56% week-on-week [19][22]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices rose to $5,296.40 per ounce, reflecting a 3.24% increase week-on-week, driven by geopolitical tensions [34][35]. - **Energy Metals**: Lithium carbonate prices increased to 173,700 yuan per ton, up 17% week-on-week due to Zimbabwe's export suspension [38][39]. - **Strategic Metals**: Prices for strategic minor metals like praseodymium oxide and tungsten have shown significant increases, indicating a potential for valuation reconstruction in the sector [41][42]. Core View Updates and Key Stock Tracking - **Industrial Metals**: Recommendations include companies with integrated operations like China Hongqiao and Zijin Mining, focusing on copper and aluminum sectors [48][49]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold remains a critical asset for long-term investment, with recommendations for stocks like Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Shandong Gold Mining [49]. - **Strategic and Minor Metals**: The report highlights opportunities in cobalt, antimony, and tungsten, with specific stock recommendations for Huayou Cobalt and Xiamen Tungsten [49].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the US-Iran conflict, are expected to sustain a bullish trend in commodity prices, especially gold, which is projected to maintain an upward trajectory due to currency depreciation and geopolitical fragmentation narratives [2][12] - Copper and aluminum are experiencing seasonal inventory accumulation post-Chinese New Year, but prices are expected to remain stable due to potential increases in export activities following a recent court ruling in the US [3][13] - The lithium sector is seeing positive production trends with ongoing inventory depletion, and supply disruptions are anticipated, particularly from Zimbabwe, which has banned lithium exports [4][14] Summary by Sections Gold Market - The gold price is expected to remain strong in the short term due to ongoing military confrontations and geopolitical instability, with a long-term upward trend anticipated [2][12] - Related stocks include Zijin Mining International, Shandong Gold, and others [2] Copper and Aluminum Market - Seasonal demand is improving, but inventory levels are still rising; however, this is not significantly impacting prices [3][13] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East poses risks to supply, particularly from Iran, which is a key player in the copper market [3][13] - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and others [3] Lithium Market - The current spot price for lithium carbonate is 172,000 RMB/ton, with expectations of continued inventory depletion and increased demand [4][14] - Supply disruptions are likely to exacerbate the tight supply situation, particularly due to export bans from Zimbabwe [4][14] - Recommended stocks include Guocheng Mining [4] Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals index has outperformed the market, with a 9.74% increase, ranking second among 30 sub-industries [16] - Notable individual stock performances include Feilihua and Yunnan Zhenye, which saw significant price increases [16][20]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides daily data briefings for non - ferrous metals and precious metals on March 2, 2026 [1] Group 2: Gold (AU) - On March 2, 2026, the closing price of SHFE gold main contract was 1197.22 yuan/gram, the near - month contract was 1191.02 yuan/gram; COMEX gold main contract was 1212.00 dollars/ounce, the near - month contract was 5280.00 dollars/ounce; London gold spot price was 5198.20 dollars/ounce, and SGE gold spot price was 1138.44 yuan/gram [1] - The domestic basis (gold T + D - main contract) was 2.29 yuan/gram, and the overseas basis (LBMA gold spot - COMEX AU01) was - 74.10 dollars/ounce [1] Group 3: Silver (AG) - On March 2, 2026, the closing price of SHFE silver main contract was 24431 yuan/kilogram, the near - month contract was 24690 yuan/kilogram; COMEX silver main contract was 94.39 dollars/ounce, the near - month contract was 5.50 dollars/ounce; London silver spot price was - 3.40 dollars/ounce, and SGE silver spot price was - 997 yuan/kilogram [1] - The domestic basis (AG(T + D) - main contract) was - 735 yuan/gram, and the overseas basis (LBMA silver spot - COMEX AG01) was - 4.60 dollars/ounce [1] Group 4: Copper (CU, BC) - On March 2, 2026, the closing price of SHFE copper (CU) main contract was 103850 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 103500 yuan/ton; international copper (BC) main contract was 2160 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 91900 yuan/ton; LME copper 3M closing price (15:00) was 13389.00 dollars/ton, and COMEX copper main contract was 0.04 dollars/pound [1] - The SHFE copper monthly spread (CU00 - CU01) was - 350 yuan/ton, the international copper monthly spread (BC00 - BC01) was - 600 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 0 - 3 premium/discount was 56.96 dollars/ton [1] - SMM1 electrolytic copper price was - 190 yuan/ton, with different regional and variety spot premiums/discounts and bonded area spot premiums [1] - SHFE copper warehouse receipt inventory was 295881 tons, international copper warehouse receipt inventory was - 203 tons, LME copper warehouse receipt inventory was 253700 tons, and COMEX copper warehouse receipt inventory was 42193 short tons [1] - The copper spot import profit and loss was 640.82 yuan/ton, and the copper 3M import profit and loss was 79.13 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined copper price difference was - 314.97 yuan/ton [1] Group 5: Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - On March 2, 2026, the closing price of SHFE aluminum (AL) main contract was 24465 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 24370 yuan/ton; alumina (AO) main contract was 29 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 2730 yuan/ton; LME aluminum 3M closing price (15:00) was 63.50 dollars/ton, and COMEX aluminum main contract was - 3058.75 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE aluminum monthly spread (AL00 - AL01) was - 35 yuan/ton, the alumina - aluminum monthly spread (A000 - A001) was - 34 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium/discount was - 12 dollars/ton [1] - There were different regional spot premiums/discounts for electrolytic aluminum and alumina, and the bauxite spot price and alumina Australia FOB price were also provided [1] - SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 92393 tons, alumina warehouse receipt inventory was 310658 tons, LME aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 465550 tons, and COMEX aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 42193 tons [1] - The electrolytic aluminum spot import profit and loss was - 2158.68 yuan/ton, the electrolytic aluminum 3M import profit and loss was - 2158.68 yuan/ton, the alumina plant profit was 13.70 yuan/ton, the electrolytic aluminum plant smelting profit was 7415.24 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined aluminum price difference was 101.00 yuan/ton [1] Group 6: Zinc (ZN) - On March 2, 2026, the closing price of SHFE zinc (ZN) main contract was 24850 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 24780 yuan/ton; LME zinc 3M closing price (15:00) was 3356 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE zinc monthly spread (ZN00 - ZN01) was 110 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 0 - 3 premium/discount was 25.92 dollars/ton [1] - There were different regional spot premiums/discounts, and the refined zinc import prices and warehouse receipt prices were provided [1] - SHFE zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 25045 tons, LME zinc warehouse receipt inventory was - 13975 tons [1] - The refined zinc spot import profit and loss was - 133.58 yuan/ton, the refined zinc 3M import profit and loss was - 2364.99 yuan/ton, and the refined zinc plant smelting profit was - 2124 yuan/ton [1] Group 7: Lead (PB) - On March 2, 2026, the closing price of SHFE lead (PB) main contract was 16895 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 16895 yuan/ton; LME lead 3M closing price (15:00) was 1978.00 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE lead monthly spread (PB00 - PB01) was 10 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 0 - 3 premium/discount was 2.42 dollars/ton [1] - The refined lead Shanghai premium/discount was 0 yuan/ton [1] - SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory was 26963 tons, LME lead warehouse receipt inventory was 286100 tons, the scrap - refined lead price difference was 0 yuan/ton, the refined lead spot import profit and loss was 0.00 yuan/ton, the refined lead 3M import profit and loss was 198.99 yuan/ton, and the recycled lead plant comprehensive profit was - 77.00 yuan/ton [1] Group 8: Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - On March 2, 2026, the closing price of SHFE nickel (NI) main contract was 140890 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 139930 yuan/ton; stainless steel (SS) main contract was 14385 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 14160 yuan/ton; LME nickel 3M closing price (15:00) was 17880 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE nickel monthly spread (NI00 - NI01) was - 120 yuan/ton, the stainless steel monthly spread (SS00 - SS01) was - 225 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 0 - 3 premium/discount was 35 dollars/ton [1] - There were different regional spot premiums/discounts for nickel, and the nickel - related price differences and ratios were provided [1] - SHFE nickel warehouse receipt inventory was 53721 tons, stainless steel warehouse receipt inventory was 52125 tons, LME nickel warehouse receipt inventory was 287976 tons [1] - The refined nickel spot import profit and loss was - 34.69 yuan/ton, the refined nickel 3M import profit and loss was 68.27 yuan/ton, and the stainless steel 304/2B (Wuxi) price was 300.00 yuan/ton [1] Group 9: Tin (SN) - On March 2, 2026, the closing price of SHFE tin (SN) main contract was 444010 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 442530 yuan/ton; LME tin 3M closing price (15:00) was - 1280 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE tin monthly spread (SN00 - SN01) was - 1480 yuan/ton, and the LME tin 0 - 3 premium/discount was - 303 dollars/ton [1] - There was a regional spot premium/discount for tin, SHFE tin warehouse receipt inventory was 113 tons, LME tin warehouse receipt inventory was - 25 tons [1] - The refined tin spot import profit and loss was - 1508.28 yuan/ton, and the tin ore processing fee was 16000 yuan/ton [1]

Group 1: International Technology Development - The global AI industry is rapidly developing, with US tech giants expected to increase AI infrastructure investment to over $650 billion in 2026, a growth of over 60% from 2025[14] - AI product exports from China are projected to grow significantly, with an expected year-on-year increase of 4.8% to 5.6% in 2026, supported by US tech giants' increased capital expenditure[42] - The competition between China and the US in technology and critical minerals is expected to intensify, as the US aims to maintain its economic and technological lead over China[5] Group 2: China's Technology Policy Landscape - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological self-reliance and security, aiming to significantly enhance the level of technological independence and develop key industries[6] - Fiscal policies will leverage various funding sources, including a total of 1.5 trillion yuan in technology-focused funds to support key industries[74] - Monetary policies will focus on precision support for technology, green finance, and small and medium enterprises, with a significant increase in the quota for technology innovation loans to 1.2 trillion yuan[76] Group 3: Economic Transition and New Growth Drivers - New productive forces are expected to take over the "pillar industry" status from real estate, with their share of nominal GDP rising to 11.4% in 2023, while real estate's share is declining[83] - The influence coefficient of new productive forces has increased significantly, indicating a stronger economic pull compared to real estate[83] - The capital market is transitioning ahead of the economic fundamentals, with new growth drivers accounting for approximately 47% of the total market value of A-shares by the end of 2025[9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the performance of the "brokerage golden stocks" and their ability to track the performance of mixed equity fund indices effectively, showcasing the analytical capabilities of brokerage firms [2][10]. - In February 2026, the top-performing stocks in the brokerage golden stock pool included Juguang Technology, Dongfang Tantalum, and Tianfu Communication, with significant monthly increases [1][3]. - The top three brokerages in terms of monthly returns were Caitong Securities, Dongwu Securities, and Guotou Securities, with returns of 14.54%, 10.54%, and 9.85% respectively, outperforming the mixed equity fund index and the CSI 300 index [6][8]. Group 2 - As of March 2, 2026, a total of 39 brokerages released their golden stocks, resulting in 273 unique A-shares after deduplication [21]. - The current allocation of golden stocks is heavily weighted in the electronics (12.50%), basic chemicals (8.85%), and non-ferrous metals (8.33%) sectors, with notable increases in the oil and petrochemical (+2.62%) and light manufacturing (+1.22%) sectors [27][21]. - The brokerage golden stock pool is characterized by a preference for mid-cap, high-valuation, and strong momentum styles [21][27]. Group 3 - The performance of the brokerage golden stock performance enhancement portfolio yielded an absolute return of 2.32% for the month and 14.06% year-to-date, with an excess return of 1.28% compared to the mixed equity fund index [35][31]. - The historical performance of the brokerage golden stock performance enhancement portfolio from 2018 to 2025 shows an annualized return of 21.71%, consistently ranking in the top 30% of active equity funds [33][35]. - The article highlights the importance of analyst recommendations, noting that stocks with multiple recommendations tend to gain higher market attention [22][24].

2026年03月02日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘政治冲突爆发 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡格局 | 3 | | 铜：地缘政治风险发酵，价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：关注宏观地缘影响 | 10 | | 铝：关注海外断供情况 | 11 | | 氧化铝：关注交易情绪 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：小幅跟随黄金走强 | 13 | | 钯：震荡为主 | 13 | | 镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性 | 15 | | 不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：供需去库，关注市场情绪 | 17 | | 工业硅：关注市场情绪扰动 | 19 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交情况 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 21 | | 硅铁：电费成本预期扰动，价格偏强震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：海外远期矿价抬升，价格偏强震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：仓单扰动叠加能源属性发 ...