近年来科技主线引领市场行情，基金经理对人工智能（AI）、机器人等赛道的布局，已从基于中观产 业的广泛布局，转变为极致聚焦于细分技术和应用。近期，2025年基金四季报披露拉开帷幕，一批此前 表现较好的主题基金率先发布季报，其中有不少是在社交媒体上备受关注的"工具基"，如聚焦人形机器 人、算力、AI应用等细分赛道品种的产品，其调仓换股路线，体现了科技浪潮的澎湃叙事。科技主线 表现强劲的同时，有色金属板块也持续走强，有基金经理表示，该板块在2026年仍有明确投资机会。 （中国证券报） ...

联博基金市场策略负责人李长风表示，对2026年全球经济仍保持乐观态度。在美国采取相对宽松的刺激 性政策，同时中国也在同步推进货币宽松的背景下，2026年有望出现一个相对友好的资本市场环境。 展望2026年资本市场走势，李长风认为，需要留意下述三个趋势能否延续。第一，由于美国就业数据出 现恶化迹象，美联储可能采取预防性降息；中国也有可能继续降息降准，因此预计2026年仍是流动性偏 宽松的年份，有助于资本市场表现。第二，在政策方面，2026年美国预计会继续推出友善资本市场的政 策；中国也在经历结构转型阶段，预计会有支持资本市场的政策持续推出。第三，AI方面，AI的投资 逻辑在2026年与前几年可能会有一些不同，需要更关注AI应用能否真正迎来发酵。"前期大量投资集中 在芯片，但在应用端盈利尚未体现，所以我们今年会比较关注这些应用层面的成长性是否开始兑现。" □本报记者 魏昭宇 上周，联博基金、财通基金、瑞银证券等多家资产管理机构在上海举办了投资策略会。多位投研人士围 绕人工智能、周期等热门板块进行展望。 谈及2026年大势，业内人士表示，A股市场有望步入整体环境更优、结构性特征深化的发展阶段，核心 驱动力源于全球流 ...

Group 1 - A-shares are showing steady growth in 2026, with foreign institutions actively conducting research to seize investment opportunities, particularly in technology sectors like AI, semiconductors, and electronic devices [1] - As of January 15, 2026, foreign institutions have conducted a total of 70 research sessions on A-share listed companies, with Anji Technology receiving the most attention from 27 foreign institutions [1] - UBS Wealth Management indicates that despite strong performance in the Chinese stock market since 2025, valuations remain low compared to global peers, suggesting significant upside potential [1] Group 2 - Morgan Asset Management forecasts a potential slowdown in global economic growth in 2026, with a supportive low-interest-rate environment expected to bolster economic development [2] - The liquidity environment in China is anticipated to remain loose, with a clear supportive policy stance from the government, which is expected to benefit the stock market [2] - Key investment directions identified include AI-driven sectors, lithium battery industry, non-ferrous metals, machinery benefiting from overseas demand, and semiconductor fields focusing on domestic GPU and equipment [2] Group 3 - Fidelity Fund emphasizes the importance of the "super track" of artificial intelligence and three strong sectors: aerospace, low-altitude economy, and innovative consumer [3]

作为长期资金代表，险资动向是市场关注重点。 开年仅10个工作日，保险机构调研上市公司马不停蹄。券商中国记者根据Wind信息统计，截至1月18日，81家 险资机构（包括保险公司和保险资管公司）合计调研A股上市公司超300次，涉及80家上市公司。 从机构来看，华泰资产以22次调研总次数居首，泰康资产、大家资产、太平养老、国寿资产、新华资产、阳光 资产的调研次数均在10次以上。 与去年同期相比，险资机构今年以来调研次数减少明显。据统计，2025年全年，保险公司及保险资管公司调研 上市公司合计超1.8万次，2025年下半年合计调研上市公司近万次。 从去年全年来看，泰康资产调研1087次，大家资产调研728次，华泰资产调研723次，是最为积极的三家。人保 资产，新华资产、平安养老、太平资产、国寿资产、长江养老、华夏久盈资产调研均超过500次。 从个股来看，海天瑞声、利欧股份、盛达资源、新开普、翔宇医疗、熵基科技等个股均获超5家险资机构调 研；云南铜业、超捷股份、壹网壹创、狄耐克、中科信息、京北方、浙矿股份、中集集团、云南锗业、小商品 城等分别获超3家险资机构调研。 AI，大事！马斯克，索赔9300亿元！ 险资机构对创业 ...

中信证券：告别喧嚣，回归业绩 融资保证金的调整并不影响市场震荡上行的大方向，但会影响结构。主题板块博弈加剧，纯靠叙事和资金接力 驱动的单边趋势行情结束。步入年报预告期，业绩线索的权重重新开始上升。ETF的巨额赎回属于逆周期调节 的一部分，也给配置型资金提供了从容"上车"的窗口。配置上，好的组合应该是体验好、阻力小且抗焦虑的， 这是围绕"资源+传统制造定价权重估"为基础（化工、有色、电力设备和新能源）构建组合的优势。在此基础 上，可逢低增配非银（证券、保险），同时通过部分服务消费品种（如免税、航空等）或高景气品种（半导体 设备等）增强收益。 国泰海通：主题轮动加快，聚焦国产半导体与电力 上周证监会提出严肃查处过度炒作乃至操纵市场等违法违规行为，坚决防止市场大起大落。近期涨幅较大且引 发投资者热议的商业航天/GEO等主题炒作回归理性。国内千问/豆包等模型产品迭代加速拉动国产算力需求， 台积电资本开支指引超预期，国家电网加码"十五五"投资等成为新催化，交易监管有助于引导市场行稳致远， 主题轮动节奏加快，看好具备强需求支撑且产业催化密集的低位科技方向，如国产算力、新型电网、机器人、 内需消费。 华泰证券：短期震荡概率 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the A-share market is currently experiencing a phase of regulatory adjustments aimed at controlling excessive market enthusiasm while ensuring sustainable growth [8][9][10] - It emphasizes the importance of the AI technology revolution and the trend of de-globalization, which are expected to persist for the next 5-10 years, creating investment opportunities in related sectors [9][10][22] - The report suggests that the Chinese economy is in a transition phase, benefiting from a unified market policy and a low-interest-rate environment, which may lead to increased foreign capital inflows into RMB assets [10][12] Market Overview - The A-share market saw a significant trading volume of 3.99 trillion yuan on January 14, marking a historical high, but subsequently retreated to around 3 trillion yuan, indicating a cooling of market exuberance [8][9] - The report notes that the recent increase in the financing margin ratio from 80% to 100% by the regulatory authority reflects a counter-cyclical adjustment strategy [8][9] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in commodities such as copper, rare earths, and gold, which are expected to gain value amid geopolitical tensions and the ongoing trend of de-globalization [10][18][20] - It also points out that the rapid development of AI is likely to drive demand for computing power and related infrastructure, benefiting sectors like new energy vehicles and resource materials [22][24] Economic Trends - The report anticipates that the global economy will continue to experience a loose monetary policy environment, with fiscal expansions expected in major economies, which may further enhance liquidity and support resource sectors [20][22] - Historical data indicates that periods of RMB appreciation are often accompanied by significant foreign capital inflows into Chinese assets, suggesting a favorable outlook for the A-share market [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The current market sentiment is driven by liquidity and risk appetite, leading to a concentration of hot sectors and thematic investments, which has resulted in structural overheating in some areas [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The recent "opening red" market rally is characterized by significant liquidity and heightened risk preferences, with a clear focus on thematic investments [1][2] - The adjustment of financing margin ratios aims to prevent systemic risks and guide the market back to rationality, while broad-based ETFs have experienced significant net outflows, indicating a market entering a phase of consolidation [1][2] - Historical comparisons suggest that the current spring market rally is still in its early stages, with potential for new highs following a short-term correction [1][2] Group 2: Sector Focus - Analysts emphasize that the upcoming earnings reporting period will shift focus back to performance indicators, particularly in sectors expected to show high growth or improved conditions, such as electronics, machinery, and pharmaceuticals [1][2] - The adjustment in financing margins is not expected to impact the overall upward trend of the market but will affect sector dynamics, with increased competition among thematic sectors [2][3] - The focus on sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend and price increases includes chemicals and non-ferrous metals, with a particular emphasis on high-growth areas in the upcoming earnings forecasts [2][3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend, with a focus on performance fundamentals as the primary driver of investment decisions, while cautioning against irrational speculative activities [2][3] - The anticipated earnings reports in late January are expected to catalyze significant market movements, particularly in sectors with strong performance indicators [2][3] - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with expectations of continued upward momentum despite short-term fluctuations, driven by fundamental improvements and policy support [2][3]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing high volatility with a potential for a stable transition into the second phase of the spring market, supported by favorable factors that have not changed [1][6] - The upcoming earnings announcements are expected to increase the importance of performance indicators, with high-quality companies showing solid fundamentals likely to yield excess returns [1][6] Investment Strategies - The investment focus remains on "anti-involution + technology," with sectors such as AI applications, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment gaining attention for their investment value [1][10] - Citic Securities suggests constructing investment portfolios based on "resource + traditional manufacturing pricing re-evaluation," including sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and new energy [5] - Dongwu Securities emphasizes that the market is likely to stabilize, with a focus on companies with strong fundamentals and exceeding performance expectations [6] Regulatory Developments - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration have adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to no less than 30%, allowing local authorities to set lower limits based on local conditions [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is seeking public opinion on the draft regulations for derivative trading, aiming to manage risks and support the real economy while limiting excessive speculation [3] Sector Insights - Open-source Securities highlights three main investment lines: recovery within the technology sector, benefiting from "anti-involution" policies in non-ferrous metals and chemicals, and maintaining gold and high-dividend assets as long-term holdings [7] - Fortune Fund identifies four key investment themes for 2026: embracing technology trends, enhancing the influence of Chinese manufacturing overseas, capturing cyclical rebound opportunities, and benefiting from the appreciation of the RMB in the non-bank financial sector [8] - Huatai Bairui Fund anticipates increased attention on resource and energy sectors due to improving domestic and foreign policy environments, which may lead to enhanced corporate profitability [9]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing high volatility with a potential for a stable transition into the second phase of the spring market, supported by favorable factors that have not changed [1][6] - The upcoming earnings announcements are expected to increase the importance of performance indicators, with high-quality companies showing solid fundamentals likely to yield excess returns [1][6] Investment Strategies - The investment focus remains on "anti-involution + technology," with sectors such as AI applications, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment gaining attention for their investment value [1][10] - Citic Securities suggests constructing investment portfolios based on "resource + traditional manufacturing pricing re-evaluation," including sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and new energy [5] - Dongwu Securities emphasizes that the market will focus on performance indicators, with high-quality companies expected to outperform in the latter half of the spring market [6] Regulatory Developments - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration have adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to no less than 30%, allowing local authorities to set lower limits based on local conditions [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is seeking public opinion on the draft regulations for derivative trading, aiming to manage risks and support the development of derivatives for risk management [3] Sector Focus - Open-source Securities highlights three main investment lines: recovery within the technology sector, sectors benefiting from PPI improvements and "anti-involution" policies, and gold and high-dividend assets as long-term holdings [7] - Fortune Fund identifies four main lines for investment: technology sector trends, the impact of Chinese manufacturing going global, cyclical recovery opportunities, and non-bank financial sectors benefiting from RMB appreciation [8] - Huatai-PB Fund anticipates increased attention on resource and energy sectors due to positive domestic and international policy environments, with expectations for improved corporate profitability [9]

Market Review - The A-share market experienced a significant increase followed by a period of volatility, driven by a rapid rise in risk appetite among investors, particularly in small-cap and growth sectors. On January 14, the total trading volume across all A-shares reached a historic high of 3.99 trillion yuan, with margin financing balances hitting new records. However, regulatory adjustments to margin requirements led to a cooling off in trading activity, and the previously strong momentum in technology indices began to slow down. Commodities such as precious metals and crude oil saw price increases, while copper prices fluctuated at high levels and domestic coking coal prices declined. The US dollar index rose, and the offshore yuan appreciated against the dollar [1][2]. Market Outlook - Regulatory measures aimed at "counter-cyclical adjustment" are expected to support a "slow bull" market for A-shares. Following a surge in trading activity and margin financing, regulators signaled a need to mitigate risks by increasing the minimum margin requirement from 80% to 100%. This is part of a broader strategy to maintain market stability and prevent excessive volatility. Despite these measures, the overall valuation of A-shares remains reasonable, supported by macroeconomic policies, long-term capital inflows, and a moderate recovery in corporate earnings. As the end of January approaches, the focus will shift to earnings forecasts, particularly in technology sectors and areas experiencing price increases [2][3]. Key Focus Areas - The spring market rally has seen a rapid increase in trading activity, but regulatory signals have shifted the Shanghai Composite Index from a one-sided rise to high-level fluctuations. Since the rally began on December 17, various sources of capital have entered the market, including institutional funds and foreign investments, leading to a peak trading volume of nearly 4 trillion yuan. The margin financing balance surpassed 2.7 trillion yuan, indicating potential overheating risks. Regulatory interventions have prompted a transition to a more stable trading environment, while the overall trading volume remains high, reflecting sustained investor confidence [1][2]. Risk Premium and Valuation - As of January 16, the equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index stood at 5.2%, close to the median level over the past decade. Compared to previous peaks in January 2018 and February 2021, the current ERP suggests that A-share valuations are relatively reasonable, although some sectors may be experiencing overheating. The sectors with the highest margin buying activity include electronics, power equipment, computers, military, and communications. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of reduced financing in high-volatility sectors [3][4]. Earnings Forecasts - The trend of a slow bull market for A-shares is expected to continue, with a focus on earnings forecasts as companies prepare to disclose their annual results. Macroeconomic policies are expected to support risk appetite, with the central bank implementing targeted monetary policies. The anticipated recovery in corporate earnings, particularly as the Producer Price Index (PPI) declines, will be crucial for market support. Key sectors to watch include technology, chemicals, and healthcare, especially those with high growth or turnaround potential in their earnings forecasts [4].