证券研究报告 2025 年 8 月 22 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场全天高位震荡，三大指数涨跌不一 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3771.10 | 0.13% | 4.89 | | | 深证成指 | 11919.76 | -0.06% | -6.98 | | | 沪深 300 | 4288.07 | 0.39% | 16.67 | | | 创业板 | 2595.47 | -0.47% | -12.19 | | | 科创 50 | 1149.15 | 0.09% | 1.00 | | | 北证 50 | 1589.40 | -1.60% | -25.77 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万一级涨幅前五 | | 申万一级跌幅靠前/ | | 热点板块 n | 涨幅前五 | 热点板块跌幅前五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 涨幅靠后 | | ...

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a narrow fluctuation after a high opening, with overall trading volume slightly decreasing. The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.13% and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 0.06% [2][12] - Key sectors leading the market included agricultural products (+1.42%), oil and gas petrochemicals (+1.41%), and public utilities (+0.81%), while the electricity and new energy equipment sector saw a decline of 0.99% [12][12] - The market's driving factors included a recovery in the pig farming industry's prosperity, which boosted the agricultural products sector, and rising international oil prices that strengthened the oil and gas petrochemical sector [12][12] Market Performance - As of August 21, 2025, the major indices showed varied performance: Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.13%, Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.06%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.47%. The Shanghai 50 Index rose by 0.53%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.39% [12][12] - The market's total transaction volume was approximately 2.46 trillion yuan [12][12] Sector Analysis - On August 21, 2025, the leading sectors in the A-share market included agricultural products (+1.42%), oil and gas petrochemicals (+1.41%), and public utilities (+0.81%). In contrast, the electricity and new energy equipment sector led the declines with a drop of 0.99% [12][12] - Concept-wise, the network security sector rose by 2.08%, and oil and gas extraction increased by 1.61%, while sectors like liquid cooling servers (-3.70%) and copper-clad laminates (-2.83%) faced declines [12][12] Future Outlook - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, suggesting that monetary and fiscal support policies may still be forthcoming. Historical experiences indicate that domestic policy initiatives can help the stock market withstand external risks and volatility [12][12] - Investment directions include focusing on non-bank sectors in a "slow bull" market, benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend in metals, transportation, chemicals, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and pig farming [12][12]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the impact of tariffs on Asian exports and the overall economic growth in the region, particularly focusing on the effects of U.S.-China trade relations and the performance of various markets including India, Japan, and China [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Asian Export Performance**: Asian exports have shown limited improvement after a brief rebound, with exports to the U.S. stagnating and non-tech sector exports fluctuating within a narrow range, indicating significant impacts from global economic slowdown [1][2][3]. 2. **Tariff Impact**: Tariffs have had a notable negative effect on both Asian and U.S. economic growth, with U.S. GDP growth expected to slow from 2% in Q2 to 1% in Q4 of 2025, while global growth is projected to decline from 3.9% to 3.5% [2][9]. 3. **Capital Expenditure Stagnation**: U.S. capital expenditures have stagnated, with capital goods imports showing zero growth, which poses challenges for Asian economies, particularly in tech and non-tech sectors [5][9]. 4. **India-U.S. Trade Tensions**: Trade tensions between India and the U.S. may lead to a reduction in Indian exports to the U.S., but the overall impact is deemed manageable, with Indian corporate revenue expected to improve by Q3 2025 due to government policy actions [6][7][25]. 5. **Market Dynamics**: Recent market volatility suggests a significant directional change, with high valuations and risks of downturns in both U.S. and Chinese markets. Financial stocks have outperformed hardware companies, while AI-driven software firms have shown better performance [8][9]. 6. **China's Market Performance**: The onshore Chinese market has outperformed offshore markets, driven by rising long-term bond yields and positive liquidity indicators, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching its highest level since 2015 [12][13][14]. 7. **Japan's Market Outlook**: Japan's stock market has rebounded strongly but may be overbought, with potential short-term correction risks. Long-term factors supporting the market include U.S. tax reforms and political changes in Japan [18][19]. 8. **Sector Performance in Japan**: Attractive sectors in Japan include construction software, information communication, real estate, and utilities, while the automotive sector faces uncertainties due to trade policies [19][20]. Additional Important Insights 1. **CPI and Deflationary Pressures**: Deflationary pressures from China are spreading across the region, contributing to downward pressure on CPI, which has remained below central bank targets [21][22]. 2. **Investment Strategy in A-shares**: Increasing positions in A-shares can effectively reduce portfolio risk due to their low correlation with global markets, especially during periods of significant volatility [16]. 3. **Monitoring Indicators for China**: Investors should focus on financing balance ratios, government bond yields, and upcoming policy events to assess the sustainability of the Chinese market [15]. 4. **Political Landscape in Japan**: The political situation in Japan remains uncertain, with potential leadership changes that could impact economic policies and market dynamics [27][28]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and market dynamics in Asia.

其 他 研 究 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源：聚源 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 农林牧渔 | 1.497 | | 石油石化 | 1.386 | | 美容护理 | 0.978 | | 公用事业 | 0.887 | | 传媒 | 0.775 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 机械设备 | -1.082 | | 电力设备 | -0.979 | | 综合 | -0.729 | | 国防军工 | -0.685 | | 电子 | -0.675 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 开源晨会 0822 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 行业公司 【银行】测算：高息定存到期规模、节奏与成本改善空间——行业点评报告 -20250821 【化工】氨纶：落后产能出清进行时，龙头企业有望受益—— ...

按申万行业统计，金房能源所属的公用事业行业共有10家公司公布了2025半年度分配方案，派现金额最 多的是国电电力，派现金额为17.84亿元，其次是龙源电力、桂冠电力，派现金额分别为8.36亿元、3.94 亿元。（数据宝） 8月21日金房能源发布2025半年度分配预案，拟10派2元（含税），预计派现金额合计为3136.25万元。 派现额占净利润比例为26.17%，这是公司上市以来，累计第6次派现。 公司上市以来历次分配方案一览 | 日期 | 分配方案 | 派现金额合计（亿元） | 股息率（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025.06.30 | 10派2元（含税） | 0.31 | 1.40 | | 2024.12.31 | 10转增2派1元（含税） | 0.13 | 0.68 | | 2024.06.30 | 10派1元（含税） | 0.13 | 0.63 | | 2023.12.31 | 10转增2派0.5元（含税） | 0.05 | 0.21 | | 2022.12.31 | 10转增2派5.5元（含税） | 0.50 | 2.03 | | 2021.12.31 | 10 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 8月21日晚间，南京公用发布公告称，2025年上半年公司实现营业收入2，866，764， 488.20元，同比增长16.07%。 ...

8月21日福能股份发布2025半年度分配预案，拟10派0.73元（含税），预计派现金额合计为2.03亿元。派 现额占净利润比例为15.18%，这是公司上市以来，累计第18次派现。 公司上市以来历次分配方案一览 | 日期 | 分配方案 | 派现金额合计（亿元） | 股息率（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025.06.30 | 10派0.73元（含税） | 2.03 | 0.78 | | 2024.12.31 | 10派3.1元（含税） | 8.62 | 3.12 | | 2023.12.31 | 10派3.1元（含税） | 8.00 | 2.93 | | 2022.12.31 | 10送3派4元（含税） | 7.82 | 3.25 | | 2021.12.31 | 10派2.1元（含税） | 4.10 | 1.55 | | 2020.12.31 | 10派2.7元（含税） | 5.05 | 3.28 | | 2019.12.31 | 10派2.5元（含税） | 3.88 | 2.79 | | 2018.12.31 | 10派2.1元（含税） | 3.26 | 2.63 | ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed results on August 21, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3771.1 points, up 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.06% to 11919.76 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.47% to 2595.47 points. The North Star 50 Index dropped by 1.6% [1] - Total trading volume in the A-share market reached 24608.75 billion yuan, an increase of 119.54 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Capital Flow - The main funds in the A-share market experienced a net outflow of 516.92 billion yuan, with an opening net outflow of 176.82 billion yuan and a closing net outflow of 85.71 billion yuan [2][4] - The CSI 300 index saw a net outflow of 92.57 billion yuan, while the ChiNext index had a net outflow of 226.22 billion yuan and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board experienced a net outflow of 4.78 billion yuan [4] Sector Performance - Among the 8 sectors that saw capital inflows, the public utilities sector led with a net inflow of 32.68 billion yuan, followed by the banking sector with 31.96 billion yuan [6][7] - The top five sectors with net inflows included: - Public Utilities: 0.97% increase, 32.68 billion yuan - Banking: 0.77% increase, 31.96 billion yuan - Oil and Petrochemicals: 1.34% increase, 17.58 billion yuan - Transportation: 0.30% increase, 15.45 billion yuan - Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery: 0.57% increase, 10.53 billion yuan [7] - The sectors with the largest net outflows included: - Electronics: -1.19% decrease, -253.66 billion yuan - Machinery: -1.11% decrease, -204.72 billion yuan - Power Equipment: -1.01% decrease, -196.92 billion yuan - Automotive: -1.03% decrease, -119.07 billion yuan - Computers: 0.45% increase, -102.31 billion yuan [7] Stock Highlights - ZTE Corporation saw the highest net inflow of main funds at 19.78 billion yuan [8] - Institutions showed interest in several stocks, with notable net purchases in stocks like Zhongdian Xilong and net sales in stocks like Hengbao Co., Ltd. [10][11] Institutional Focus - Recent institutional ratings and target prices for selected stocks include: - Yingweike: Buy rating, target price 81.88 yuan, current price 64.60 yuan, upside potential 26.75% - Longyuan Power: Buy rating, target price 18.72 yuan, current price 16.67 yuan, upside potential 12.30% - Yanjinpuzi: Increase rating, target price 98.75 yuan, current price 72.33 yuan, upside potential 36.53% [12]

盘后数据出炉。 今日（8月21日），A股市场整体涨跌互现。截至收盘，上证指数报3771.1点，上涨0.13%；深证成指报11919.76点，下跌0.06%；创业板指报2595.47点，下跌 0.47%；北证50指数下跌1.6%。A股市场合计成交24608.75亿元，较上一交易日增加119.54亿元。 1.A股市场主力资金净流出516.92亿元 今日A股市场主力资金开盘净流出176.82亿元，尾盘净流出85.71亿元，A股市场全天主力资金净流出516.92亿元。 | | | 沪深两市近五日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 人治党雄市 露龙人娱地 | | 尾盘净流入 超大单净买入 | | 2025-8-21 | -516.92 | -176. 82 | -85. 71 | -209.08 | | 2025-8-20 | -335.70 | -204. 31 | 22. 31 | -124. 70 | | 2025-8-19 | -450. 86 | -177. 48 | -37.84 | -187.77 | | 2025-8-1 ...

Market Performance - On August 21, A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.06% and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.47% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 24,241 billion RMB, showing a slight increase compared to the previous trading day [2] Index Performance - The China A50 Index rose by 0.77% with a year-to-date increase of 5.91% [2] - The CSI 300 Index increased by 0.39% year-to-date, showing an 8.98% rise [2] - The ChiNext Index has a year-to-date decline of 21.19% [2] Sector Performance - The Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery sector led with a rise of 1.50%, followed by the Oil and Petrochemical sector at 1.39% and Beauty and Personal Care at 0.98% [7] - The Machinery Equipment sector saw a decline of 1.08%, while the Electrical Equipment sector fell by 0.98% [7] Public Utilities - The implementation of the "Price Law Amendment Draft" aims to break the "loss-subsidy" cycle, with market-oriented pricing for gas and electricity entering the implementation phase [8] - The performance and valuation of public utility companies are expected to improve as subsidy and pricing policies are set to be concentrated in 2025 [8] Chemical Sector - Significant capital inflow was observed in the chemical sector, with the largest chemical ETF (159870) seeing a net subscription of 1.23 billion units, bringing its total size to 6.5 billion RMB [9] - Two potential paths for the chemical sector's anti-involution were identified: proactive industry self-discipline and passive policy-driven improvements [10] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on high-quality green electricity operators and premium offshore wind projects as the new energy sector fully enters the market [8] - The chemical sector's leading companies are expected to have strong bottom configuration value due to their sensitivity to policy changes [10]