Summary of Key Points from Conference Call on Agricultural Products and Oilseeds Market Industry Overview - The focus is on the agricultural products sector, particularly oilseeds, in the context of inflation relief and potential investment opportunities in 2026-2027 [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Opportunities**: The agricultural sector, especially in the planting chain (agricultural inputs, seeds, and planting), is expected to experience a dual boost in valuation and profitability in 2026-2027 due to its close relation to food security [2]. - **Livestock Chain**: Within the livestock sector, beef cattle are favored over pig farming, raw milk, and poultry, indicating a shift in investment focus [2]. - **Global Oilseed Production**: A decrease in global soybean and sunflower seed production is anticipated for 2026, while canola production is expected to increase. The U.S. is reducing soybean planting area, leading to tighter supplies of soybeans and sunflower seeds, while canola supply remains ample [1][5]. - **Oil Consumption Trends**: In 2026, industrial consumption of canola oil is expected to recover, while palm oil growth will slow down. Soymeal consumption is projected to increase the most, with palm oil maintaining a strong supply-demand balance [1][6]. Market Dynamics - **Oil Market Volatility**: The oilseed market has been volatile, influenced by U.S. crude oil prices and geopolitical factors. Palm oil is leading the market due to its high production and trade volume, particularly in biodiesel applications [3][5]. - **Palm Oil Production and Exports**: Malaysia's palm oil production in January was below expectations, but exports increased, leading to a stockpile of 3.05 million tons. The market did not react negatively due to prior pricing adjustments [4][8]. - **Geopolitical Impact**: The U.S.-Iran conflict has strengthened crude oil prices, positively affecting oilseed prices. The U.S. biodiesel policy has also contributed to the rebound in soybean oil prices [5][6]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Global Supply Adjustments**: The global supply of soybeans and sunflower seeds is tightening, while canola supply is more relaxed. The overall consumption of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil is expected to grow significantly in 2026 [5][6][7]. - **Price Trends**: As of late January, palm oil prices have risen significantly, with sunflower oil prices remaining strong at approximately $1,300 per ton. The price gap between Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil is around $44, indicating less supply pressure in Malaysia [9][10]. Regional Insights - **China's Import Dynamics**: China's soybean import demand is expected to meet current needs, but there is a projected shortfall in May. The first quarter saw lower import volumes, but the second quarter is expected to be historically high [11][12]. - **India's Oil Demand**: India's palm oil imports are recovering, with significant increases in January and February compared to December [10]. Additional Considerations - **Biodiesel Market**: The U.S. biodiesel processing margins have worsened, while the EU has seen improvements due to lower canola oil prices [15]. - **Domestic Demand Fluctuations**: In China, domestic oil demand has increased due to pre-holiday stocking, but consumption is expected to decline as the holiday approaches [16][22]. - **Market Correlations**: The relationship between oilseed products and crude oil prices is significant, influenced by production costs and macroeconomic factors [23]. Conclusion - The agricultural products and oilseeds market is poised for significant changes in the coming years, with investment opportunities emerging in specific sectors. The interplay of geopolitical factors, domestic demand, and global supply dynamics will be crucial in shaping market trends moving forward [24][25].

【品种观点】 阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所周四表示，阿根廷西部关键农业产区近期的降雨令土壤墒情得 到改善，但大豆和玉米作物未来几周仍需更多降水方能避免单产下降。该交易所估计，阿根廷 2025/26 年度大豆收割面积为 1760 万公顷，低于前一年度的 1840 万公顷，但预计玉米收割面积在 780 万公顷， 高于前一年度的 710 万公顷。 最新大豆及豆粕库存环比下降，考虑 2 月进口预估同比偏低，豆粕预计进入阶段性 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 去库。阿根廷大豆地区的干旱天气以及上周达沃斯中美会晤后，美政府对美豆出口 | | 豆粕 | | 中国展望乐观，叠加美生柴政策预期，支撑美豆基本面暂偏多。但巴西丰产收割上 | | | 短线遇阻回落 | 市，交易商普遍预计，近期集中采购美豆之后，未来几个月中国买家将主要转向巴 | | ★ | | 西市场寻求供应。这一结构性转变将持续对美豆出口前景及价格形成制约。美豆小 | | | | 幅收跌，叠加国内节前市场备货情绪表现一般，周五国内豆粕自反弹高位大幅回落。 | | | | 考虑阿根廷降雨依然不足，豆粕短 ...

转自：贵州日报 寒冬时节，修文县一处猕猴桃种植基地里却涌动着一股暖流，几位"头雁"学员围在一起讨论着冬季管护 要点。"从'卖原料'到'卖品牌'，关键在品质的稳定性。"省农业农村厅特聘品牌专家姜蚓的话，道出了 众多农人的心声。作为上海交通大学2025年度贵州省乡村产业振兴带头人培育"头雁"项目学员，多年 来，姜蚓都在致力于将课堂所学的品牌逻辑转化为助推"黔货出山"的实践方案。 姜蚓的故事并非孤例。自2022年贵阳市乡村产业振兴带头人"头雁"培育工程启动以来，一批批像他这样 的产业带头人，从田间地头、合作社车间走进全国知名高校的课堂，又将新理念、新技术、新模式带回 青山绿水间。截至目前，贵阳贵安已累计选派396名"头雁"赴外培训，他们如同一颗颗火种，在广袤乡 村点燃了产业振兴的燎原之火，绘就了一幅"头雁领航、群雁齐飞"的生动图景。 精准孵化 "好苗子"变成"领航者" 群雁齐飞 化课堂所学为生动实践 理论的种子，在实践的沃土中生根发芽、开花结果。近年来，"头雁"们将所学化为所用，在各自领域谱 写着动人的振兴篇章。 在花溪区久安乡，"荼山黔女"合作社负责人在"头雁"课堂上学到的品牌营销知识，直接催生了"久安古 韵"茶 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In January 2026, the corn futures first rose and then declined, the live hog futures had small gains and large losses, and the egg futures were stronger in the near - term and weaker in the long - term. The spot prices of corn, live hogs, and eggs also showed different trends [7][8]. - For corn, the short - term spot may fluctuate weakly, the medium - term maintains a wide - range trading idea, and the long - term pricing logic is substitution + planting cost, focusing on policy guidance [16]. - For live hogs, the first quarter of 2026 may see the price first rise and then fall, the second quarter may see the supply form an inflection point, and the second half of the year is expected to strengthen but with limited upside [46][47][48]. - For eggs, the short - term price may weaken due to the end of pre - festival stocking, the medium - term may face a supply - demand imbalance after the Spring Festival, and the long - term price increase space may be limited by the continuous expansion of the breeding scale [72]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Review - **Spot Review**: In January, the corn spot price fluctuated slightly stronger; the live hog price first rose and then declined; the egg price continued to rise supported by consumption [7]. - **Futures Review**: In January, the corn futures led the spot price and rose in shock; the live hog futures first rose and then fell, and the egg futures were stronger in the near - term and weaker in the long - term [8]. - **Strategy Review**: The previous strategies for corn, live hogs, and eggs were verified by the market [9]. 3.2 Corn Variety - **Macro Logic**: Internationally, the macro - drive is gradually weakening; domestically, it is mainly reflected in industrial policies [13]. - **Industry Logic**: It has entered the passive inventory - building cycle, focusing on policies such as reserve purchases, directional rice/imported corn auctions, and grain import policies [13]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: The domestic corn supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 period has turned to basic balance. In February 2026, the spot market may become lighter. Supply is affected by international and domestic factors, and demand is mainly from the breeding and deep - processing industries [14][15]. - **Variety View**: Short - term, the spot may fluctuate weakly; medium - term, maintain a wide - range trading idea; long - term, focus on policy orientation [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term, the market is weak, and the 2603 and 2605 contracts have support levels; medium - and long - term, maintain an interval trading idea [17]. 3.3 Live Hog Variety - **Macro Logic**: Pay attention to the interaction between China's CPI trend and hog prices, and focus on industrial policy orientation [43]. - **Industry Logic**: The breeding market structure may change under the guidance of capacity - reduction policies. The reduction of the sow inventory of leading group enterprises has basically been achieved, and the large - scale decline of the sow inventory in the next few months is unlikely [43]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Supply is affected by factors such as sow inventory, new - born piglets, production efficiency, and slaughter weight; demand is weak after the Spring Festival [44]. - **Market View**: The first quarter of 2026 may see the price first rise and then fall; the second quarter may see the supply form an inflection point; the second half of the year is expected to strengthen but with limited upside [46][47][48]. 3.4 Egg Variety - **Macro Logic**: Domestically, pay attention to raw material prices and CPI changes, and in the second half of the year, pay attention to the impact of meat and vegetable prices [69]. - **Industry Logic**: The market share of leading enterprises in the egg - laying hen breeding industry is relatively low. The industry is expected to transform from traditional decentralized breeding to intensive breeding, and the scale rate is expected to increase [70]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Egg prices are mainly driven by the supply side, and consumption is seasonally driven. The current capacity reduction is less than expected, and it is difficult to start a cycle - type market driven by over - culling [71]. - **Variety View**: Short - term, the price may weaken due to the end of pre - festival stocking; medium - term, the supply - demand imbalance may intensify after the Spring Festival; long - term, the price increase space may be limited by the continuous expansion of the breeding scale [72]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term, maintain a short - selling idea for near - term contracts; medium - and long - term, the capacity may be difficult to clear effectively in the first quarter, and breeding enterprises are recommended to lock in profits through far - term contracts [73].

2026年2月1日起，我国农产品将全面启用新版"身份证"——农产品质量安全承诺达标合格证。由农业农 村部发布的《农产品质量安全承诺达标合格证管理办法》，让每一份上市的蔬果、畜禽、水产都有了自 己的质量安全证明中华人民共和国农业农村部令 2025年第 4 号。 这是一张什么证？ 二维码轻轻一扫，田间到餐桌的全程信息、生产者承诺与监管信息将一览无遗。 农产品质量安全承诺达标合格证是农产品生产企业、农民专业合作社、农户和收购单位，根据质量安全 控制、检测结果等开具的证明。 生产者需承诺，自己销售的农产品未使用禁用农药、兽药及其他化合物，且常规农药、兽药残留不超 标。蔬菜、水果、茶鲜叶、畜禽、禽蛋、养殖水产品等主要农产品都被纳入管理范围。 新规明确要求，农产品生产企业和合作社必须按生产批次开具合格证，并保存至少六个月记录。农户虽 不强制，但鼓励开具合格证；对于收购者而言，收产品必须先收合格证，否则不得收购。收购后还需妥 善保存这些证明至少六个月。 值得注意的是，收购商即使是从不同生产者那里收购的农产品，在混装或分装后销售时，也必须重新开 具新的合格证，承诺混装后的产品质量安全。 承诺达标合格证包含产品名称、数量、产地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the dedication and meticulous work of Sun Tao, a senior agronomist at the Chongqing Customs Technical Center, in safeguarding China's agricultural industry from harmful foreign pests through rigorous inspection and innovative detection methods [5][6][10]. Group 1: Daily Operations and Responsibilities - Sun Tao's daily routine involves detailed inspections of samples for harmful organisms, utilizing molecular biology techniques for identification [4][9]. - The laboratory serves as a critical defense line against foreign pests that could threaten domestic agriculture, protecting millions of acres of farmland and the livelihoods of countless families [5][6]. Group 2: Personal Background and Motivation - Sun Tao grew up in a farming family in Shandong, where early experiences with crop diseases motivated him to pursue a career in agricultural science [6][7]. - His educational background includes a master's degree in plant pathology, which he applied in his role at the customs laboratory [7][8]. Group 3: Innovations in Detection Techniques - In 2012, Sun Tao introduced DNA barcoding technology to the laboratory, significantly reducing the time required for pathogen and pest identification from weeks to just a few days [10]. - He later led the development of high-throughput detection methods, further enhancing the efficiency of pest identification and ensuring the safety of agricultural products [10]. Group 4: Community Engagement and Support - Sun Tao actively participates in rural revitalization efforts, helping local farmers in Chongqing improve their agricultural practices and meet export standards [12][13]. - His initiatives have led to successful exports of local products, such as the first batch of yellow essence noodles to Singapore, benefiting the local economy [12][13]. Group 5: International Collaboration and Standards - Sun Tao has served as a technical expert for the General Administration of Customs, conducting risk assessments for agricultural imports from various countries, thereby promoting Chinese agricultural standards abroad [14][15]. - His work has established monitoring systems in foreign agricultural regions, enhancing bilateral trade relations and ensuring compliance with Chinese import standards [14][15]. Group 6: Achievements and Recognition - Over 15 years, Sun Tao has led numerous national and provincial research projects, contributed to the formulation of industry standards, and published over 20 papers [16]. - He has received multiple accolades, including the "National May Day Labor Medal" and recognition as a "Model of Customs Border Guards," reflecting his commitment to agricultural safety and innovation [16].

瑞达期货研究院 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 「2026.01.30」 玉米类市场周报 续涨动能略显不足 玉米期价高位回落 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 Ø 玉米： Ø 行情回顾：本周玉米期货震荡收跌。主力2603合约收盘价为2271元/吨，较上周-29元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：美玉米供需格局较为宽松，继续牵制国际玉米市场价格，国际市场潜在的进口压力仍 存。国内方面，东北产区基层余粮持续消耗，干粮价格高企导致发货情况不理想，剩余粮源相对 集中于种植户及贸易环节，随着春节前下游备货的启动，种植户售粮心态有所松动，出粮速度较 前期偏快，贸易商对优质粮源存囤积意愿偏强，下游产品进入消费旺季，深加工企业为保障生产 连续性，加大玉米收购力度，玉米现货价格总体受到支撑。盘面来看，受现货偏强支撑，近期盘 面维持偏强震荡。不过，上方压力仍然较大，短期有望高位震荡。 「 周度要点小结 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound of the rapeseed meal contract may have ended, and the market will continue to fluctuate between 2700 yuan/ton and 2800 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the upward trend of the oil market remains, but in the medium - to - short - term, there may be a phased adjustment after continuous rises [6][129] Summary by Directory Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis 1. Price Trends - This week, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell, with the price center slightly elevated. The domestic rapeseed meal market followed the trend of US soybeans, with futures prices rising and then falling. The spot price of domestic rapeseed meal was relatively strong this week, but the bullish sentiment at the end - user level was insufficient [6] 2. Export and Inspection Data - The weekly soybean export inspection volume in the US decreased by 2% but increased by 79% year - on - year. As of January 22, 2026, the total export inspection volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 20.668363 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.5%. The export to China (Mainland) increased significantly [12] 3. South American Market - Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 181 million tons, a 5.54% increase from the previous season. As of January 22, the soybean harvest progress was 4.9%. In Argentina, high - temperature and drought weather may lead to a decline in the 2025/26 production [30][31] 4. Domestic Market - This week, domestic spot and futures soybean crushing margins continued to recover. As of the end of this week, the total inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports was about 8.4976 million tons. The average soybean crushing rate of domestic oil mills was 58.60%, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 90.68 million tons [38][44] Part 2: Oil Market Analysis 1. Price Trends - This week, US soybean oil first rose and then fell, while Malaysian palm oil first rose and then fell. Domestic oils followed the trends of related international oils. The overall trend of oils this week was rapeseed oil > soybean oil > palm oil, and the soybean - palm oil spread declined significantly [59][101] 2. International Oil Information - From January 1 - 20, 2026, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 14.43% month - on - month. From January 1 - 25, exports increased. In December 2025, Indonesian palm oil exports increased by 52.1%. The first batch of Australian rapeseed has completed customs clearance in China [63][64] 3. Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the 4th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0449 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78%. Among them, soybean oil inventory decreased, palm oil inventory increased, and rapeseed oil inventory decreased [84] Part 3: Market Outlook 1. Technical Analysis - For rapeseed meal, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are bearish; for rapeseed oil, short - term and medium - term indicators are bullish, and long - term indicators are entangled; for soybean oil and palm oil, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators show different trends [128] 2. Fundamental Analysis - For protein meals, the drought in Argentina and rainfall in Brazil may lead to weather - related speculation, but the pressure of a large Brazilian soybean harvest and weak US soybean exports are evident. For oils, geopolitical factors and the US biodiesel policy will affect the market, and the Malaysian palm oil de - stocking cycle has begun [129]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report International - The US soybean market's supply - demand pattern has shifted to a loose state under the influence of the unexpectedly bearish USDA January supply - demand report. Although the strong domestic crushing demand provides some support for prices, it cannot offset the weak external demand. The expected high - yield in South America continues to suppress market sentiment, with the increased production forecast in Brazil setting the tone for global supply abundance. The continuous drought in the Argentine production area adds weather premium and is the main uncertain factor. Overall, the US soybean market faces double pressure from inventory accumulation in the US and intensified competition from South America, limiting the price rebound space [4][96]. Domestic - The domestic soybean market shows characteristics of loose external and stable internal conditions. The spot price of imported soybeans is stable, while the price of domestic soybeans rises supported by supply and demand. The overall market supply is abundant. The previous commitment to concentrated procurement of US soybeans has been mostly fulfilled, and future procurement will focus on South American new crops with more price advantages. The operating rate of domestic oil mills peaks driven by pre - Spring Festival stocking, but the crushing profit is severely squeezed. High upstream costs and high downstream inventories jointly restrict the industry's profit space. As the Spring Festival stocking demand nears the end, the boosting effect on soybean meal consumption weakens, and inventory reduction is slow. The domestic soybean market is supported by festival stocking in the short term, but will face multiple challenges in the medium term, such as the concentrated arrival of low - priced South American soybeans, high domestic inventories, and weak downstream breeding demand. After the stocking market, the logic of loose supply will dominate the market again [4][96]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review 1.1 Soybean Spot Prices Fluctuate Differently - At the end of January 2026, the spot price of imported second - grade soybeans in Zhangjiagang was 3,920 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 30 yuan compared to the end of December 2025. The spot price of domestic third - grade soybeans in the Nenjiang area of the Heilongjiang soybean production area was 4,060 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 170 yuan [10]. 1.2 Bean Futures Prices: Raw Materials Stronger than Finished Products - Since January 2026, the price center of bean No. 1 futures has generally risen, from 4,240 yuan/ton to around 4,370 yuan/ton, with spot and futures prices rising in tandem. The price of bean No. 2 futures fluctuated strongly. After three consecutive weeks of consolidation, it broke upwards. Since the spot price remained strong during the same period, the basis of bean No. 2 remained at a relatively high level. The price of soybean meal futures was mainly in consolidation, following the pace of US soybean futures but overall weaker than US soybeans, mainly due to the relatively loose domestic supply [12]. 2. The USDA Report is Unexpectedly Bearish, and South American Weather Topics Continue to Simmer 2.1 US Soybean Data is Unexpectedly Bearish; Strong Domestic Demand Cannot Offset Weak Exports - The USDA's January supply - demand report on January 12, 2026, significantly revised the US soybean data, with core adjustments including increased production, decreased exports, and increased inventory. The US soybean production in the 2025/26 season was unexpectedly raised to 4.262 billion bushels, an increase of 9 million bushels from the December report. The increase was mainly due to the increase in the harvested area from 80.3 million acres to 80.4 million acres. The domestic crushing demand was strong, with the estimated domestic crushing volume raised from 2.555 billion bushels to 2.570 billion bushels. However, the export demand shrank significantly, with the export volume estimate cut by 60 million bushels from 1.635 billion bushels to 1.575 billion bushels. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season soared from 290 million bushels to 350 million bushels, reaching a six - year high. The farm - level annual average price estimate for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was lowered from $10.50 per bushel to $10.20 per bushel [16][17]. 2.2 South American Production Area Weather Topics Simmer; High - Yield Expectations Face Adjustment - In January 2026, the weather in South American soybean production areas showed significant regional differentiation. In Brazil, although a record - high yield is expected, weather disturbances bring uncertainties to harvesting and later growth. In Argentina, continuous drought has caused substantial damage to crop growth, and the production forecast faces downward pressure. In Brazil, the southeast has heavy rain and the south has extreme heat. Heavy rain in the southeast and central - west core production areas has delayed the mechanical harvesting of early soybeans and squeezed the sowing window for second - crop corn. The high - temperature and dry weather in the south has threatened the growth of soybeans and corn. In Argentina, since December 2025, the core agricultural areas have suffered from continuous drought, leading to a sharp deterioration in soil moisture, affecting soybean growth, and causing a decline in the proportion of good - quality crops and suitable soil moisture [22][23][25]. 2.3 US Soybean Crushing Volume Remains High; Strong Domestic Demand is Still an Important Support - The NOPA's January monthly crushing data showed that the US soybean crushing volume in December reached the second - highest level in history, slightly higher than market expectations. The crushing volume in December was 224.994 million bushels, a 4.1% increase from November and an 8.9% increase from December 2024. The USDA's January supply - demand report predicted that the US soybean crushing volume in the 2025/26 season would be 2.570 billion bushels, higher than the December forecast and a 5.11% increase from the previous year. The high crushing volume is driven by multiple factors, including rigid domestic demand for soybean meal, biodiesel policies supporting soybean oil consumption, and indirect export market pull [26][28]. 2.4 The Peak US Soybean Export Period Ends; the Competition between North and South American Soybeans Begins - The US soybean export pattern is undergoing a profound structural adjustment. The total US soybean export volume is under pressure, with a significant reduction in the export volume estimate from 1.635 billion bushels to 1.575 billion bushels. This is due to the continuous and rapid expansion of South American production capacity and the strong domestic crushing demand in the US, which reduces the supply for export and weakens its international price competitiveness. China's purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans has provided short - term support for US soybean exports, but after fulfilling the commitment, China will turn to South American new crops. The price competitiveness of US soybeans compared to South American soybeans will be a decisive factor in future exports [32][33]. 3. Domestic Soybean Supply is Abundant; Spring Festival Stocking Demand is Nearing the End 3.1 China Fulfills the US Soybean Purchase Commitment; Future Procurement Turns to South America - In January 2026, domestic imported soybean procurement has evolved into refined cost management and supply - chain balance under multiple constraints. Brazil has a dominant position in China's soybean imports. China has basically completed the concentrated procurement of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season, with the actual procurement approaching or exceeding 10 million tons, over 80% of the 12 - million - ton target. The focus is now shifting to South American new crops. The procurement decision is driven by profit accounting and inventory adjustment. The state reserve has been conducting soybean auctions since January, which has supplemented the immediate supply and strengthened the expectation of loose future supply, suppressing the purchasing enthusiasm of oil mills [46][47]. 3.2 Oil Mill Operating Rate Peaks before the Festival; Crushing Profit Space is Severely Squeezed - The domestic soybean crushing industry is in a game between strong reality and weak expectations. The crushing profit is severely squeezed. High import costs and limited downstream soybean meal price increases due to high inventory have led to poor profit conditions for oil mills. The operating rate of oil mills increased significantly in mid - to late January to meet the pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, but it is expected to decline after the stocking demand is released. The soybean meal market has a high inventory level with slow reduction and limited demand boost. In the future, the domestic soybean crushing industry may face a decline in the operating rate, and the crushing profit will continue to be squeezed [60][61]. 4. Excess Supply and Weak Demand Coexist; Pig Prices Continue to Bottom Out 4.1 Pig Prices Rebound and then Come under Pressure Again; the Industry Remains at the Bottom of the Cycle - In January 2026, the domestic pig market was in a complex game between the traditional consumption peak season and high supply, showing the characteristics of a weak peak season and industry pressure. Pig prices did not show a unilateral upward trend but rebounded slightly and then came under pressure again. The industry was still at the bottom of the cycle, with self - breeding and self - raising of pigs still incurring an average loss of about 33 yuan per head as of early January. Major listed pig enterprises increased their slaughter volume but saw a decline in sales revenue due to lower average prices [75]. 4.2 Pig Production Capacity is Reduced Slowly; Market Supply Pressure Remains Heavy - The official inventory data shows that the number of sows capable of reproduction is slowly decreasing, but the absolute quantity is still high. As of the end of 2025, the national inventory of sows capable of reproduction was 39.61 million, a 2.9% year - on - year decrease, still slightly higher than the balanced level. In 2025, the national pig slaughter volume reached 720 million, and the pork output was 59.38 million tons. In late January 2026, the short - term market supply pressure increased significantly due to the increased slaughter volume and the concentrated release of fattened pigs by secondary fatteners [76][77]. 4.3 Traditional Pre - Festival Demand is Delayed Overall; Demand Explosiveness is Weakened - Slaughter enterprises are eager to lower the purchase price of pigs to reduce losses, which suppresses market demand. Traders and slaughter enterprises have low willingness to build frozen - product inventories, and the frozen - product inventory level remains low. The Spring Festival in 2026 was about 20 days later than usual, delaying the traditional pre - festival demand peak. Family curing and enema in the south, killing pigs for the New Year in the north, and inventory - building demand from supermarkets and wholesale markets were all weak or delayed, weakening the demand explosiveness [84][86]. 5. Conclusion - The international and domestic soybean market situations are consistent with the core views of the report, with the US soybean market facing pressure and the domestic soybean market showing short - term support and medium - term challenges [96].

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：高位波动加剧，关注前高压力 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：高位震荡调整 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕调整震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面跟随商品市场情绪波动 | 4 | | 玉米：回调幅度有限 | 6 | | 白糖：关注低基差期现机会 | 7 | | 棉花：维持偏强震荡20260130 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：节后淡季预期未变 | 10 | | 生猪：需求表现不及预期，供应矛盾释放 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 2026年01月30日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 30 日 棕榈油：高位波动加剧，关注前高压力 豆油：高位震荡调整 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,362 | 涨跌幅 0.99% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,348 | 涨跌幅 -0.15% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...