Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance showed significant improvement, with total profit increasing by 39% year-on-year [4] - The company achieved a revenue of 541.56 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.69% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 was 10.46 billion yuan, up 10.97% year-on-year, primarily due to a low tax base from the previous year [4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q3, the company reported a revenue of 182.72 billion yuan, which is an 8.73% increase year-on-year [2] - The net profit for the first three quarters was 28.77 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.83% year-on-year [2] - The company's operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 46.71 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.41% [4] Business Volume and Market Share - The company handled 77.21 billion express parcels in Q3, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.05%, which is higher than the industry growth rate of 13.3% [3] - The market share for the company in Q3 was 15.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 44.75 billion yuan, 52.85 billion yuan, and 61.84 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.54%, 18.09%, and 17.00% [5] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for these years are 13.1x, 11.1x, and 9.5x, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the notification is to enhance urban commercial quality through the "Urban Commercial Quality Improvement Action Plan," focusing on high-quality development of pedestrian streets and commercial circles [1][2] - The plan aims to create national demonstration pedestrian streets and commercial circles that serve as carriers for consumption upgrades, urban image, and international openness [1] - It emphasizes the integration of online and offline development, encouraging collaboration between retail and e-commerce companies to enhance delivery efficiency and service quality [1][2] Group 2 - The notification outlines the establishment of a comprehensive emergency supply system to ensure the stability of urban commercial operations, including the enhancement of supply chain resilience [2] - It highlights the importance of leveraging emerging technologies such as AI, IoT, and cloud computing to optimize urban commercial space utilization and improve operational efficiency [2] - The plan includes the development of smart commercial models that incorporate intelligent guidance, precise marketing, and immersive shopping experiences [2]

人民财讯10月29日电，商务部等5部门办公厅印发《城市商业提质行动方案》，其中提出，促进线上线 下（300959）融合发展。指导商贸流通企业与电商企业合作，通过即时零售模式实现线下商业载体与线 上平台联动，发展平台下单+门店配送、门店下单+即时配送等模式。鼓励电商企业与快递企业合作， 整合零散需求订单，发展共同配送、集中配送，推广即时配送、无人配送，提高精准响应能力，利用城 市空间布局前置仓、智能快件箱、快递综合服务站等设施，提高末端配送效率和服务质量。 ...

新华财经上海10月29日电 国泰海通证券研报表示，2025年9月全国快递企业件量168.8亿件，同比增长 12.7%；2025年1-9月件为1450.8亿件，同比增长17.2%。单价上看，2025年9月快递行业收入同比增长 7.2%，单票收入同比下降4.9%；1-9月快递行业收入同比增长8.9%，单票收入同比下降7.1%。9月快递 行业单票收入降幅同比环比均收窄，反映出价格竞争在行业"反内卷"引导下有所缓和。"反内卷"将有效 缓和行业竞争压力，预计下半年电商快递盈利将开启修复，未来盈利弹性将取决于提价持续性，建议重 点关注邮管局监管力度。 编辑：林郑宏 ...

国家邮政局对中通快递股份有限公司实施行政约谈 10月28日，国家邮政局约谈中通快递股份有限公司，指出中通快递经营行为不规范，随意调整运营规则，存在服务质量不高、快递员合法权益保障措施落 实不到位等问题，要求该公司严格落实中通快递服务网络管理主体责任，改进快递服务质量，强化合规经营体系建设，保障快递员合法权益，自觉维护公 平竞争市场秩序。中通快递股份有限公司表示，认真落实监管要求，切实整改问题。 | | | | 心 无障碍 简体 繁體 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中华人民共和国国家邮政局 | | 请输入关键字 | 捜索Ｑ | | State Post Bureau of the People's Republic of China | | 热词: 主题教育 快递业务量 邮政编码 快递包装 投诉 | | | 政务公开 个首页 机构概况 | 新闻动态 | 政务服务 | 互动交流 | 网站截图 来源：国家邮政局网站 关注" 新华网财经 "视频号 更多财经资讯等你来看 · · · · · · · · · 推 荐 往 期 身份证换证高峰来了！最全攻略→ 总票房，突破50亿！ 扫描二维码,关 ...

2025 年 10 月 29 日 赵旭东 H70556@capital.com.tw 目标价(元) 21 公司基本信息 | 产业别 | | 交通运输 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A 股价(2025/10/28) | | 17.12 | | | 上证指数(2025/10/28) | | 3988.22 | | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 20.57/11.64 | | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 3422.54 | | | A 股数(百万) | | 3422.54 | | | A 市值(亿元) | | 585.94 | | | 主要股东 | | 上海圆通蛟龙 | | | | | 投资发展(集 | | | | | 团)有限公司 | | | | | (30.70%) | | | 每股净值(元) | | 9.76 | | | 股价/账面净值 | | 1.75 | | | | 一个月 三个月 | 一年 | | | 股价涨跌(%) | -11.4 16.2 | | 2.8 | | 近期评等 | | | | | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | --- | --- | ...

Group 1 - The National Postal Service of China held a meeting with Zhongtong Express Co., Ltd., highlighting issues with the company's operational practices and service quality [1] - Zhongtong Express was criticized for arbitrary adjustments to operational rules, leading to inadequate service quality and insufficient protection of delivery personnel's legal rights [1] - The company is required to strictly implement its service network management responsibilities, improve service quality, enhance compliance systems, and ensure fair competition in the market [1] Group 2 - Zhongtong Express has committed to seriously addressing regulatory requirements and rectifying identified issues [1]

2025年监测对象包括9家快递服务品牌，具体为：邮政速递、顺丰速运、中通快递、圆通速递、韵达速 递、申通快递、京东快递、德邦快递和极兔速递。 调查范围覆盖50个城市，包括各直辖市、省会城市和19个快递业务量较大的城市。 满意度调查采用在线调查方式，由2025年使用快递服务的用户对下单、揽收、投递、信息查询和服务问 题处理5个方面进行满意度评价，共获得有效样本8255个。时限测试采用系统数据抽样方式，业务范围 为国内异地快件，共获得有效样本212万个。 转自：北京日报客户端 为加强快递服务质量监测，客观反映企业服务水平，促进快递业提升发展质效，国家邮政局组织第三方 机构对2025年第三季度快递服务满意度、全国重点地区时限妥投率进行了调查和测试。现将有关情况通 告如下： 一、基本情况 在品牌公众满意度方面，得分较高的品牌为顺丰速运、京东快递。 在区域公众满意度得分方面，河南、天津、江苏、北京、青海、河北得分高于86分，满意度较高。 调查显示，2025年第三季度，在下单服务方面，对统一客服热线下单、快递员电话下单的用户满意度得 分分别为90.7分、87.7分，同比分别上升4.3分、2.1分。在揽收服务方面，对揽收员 ...

中新网10月29日电 据国家邮政局微信公众号消息，为加强快递服务质量监测，客观反映企业服务水 平，促进快递业提升发展质效，国家邮政局组织第三方机构对2025年第三季度快递服务满意度、全国重 点地区时限妥投率进行了调查和测试。调查显示，2025年第三季度用户快递服务公众满意度得分为85.0 分，同比上升1.3分。 2025年监测对象包括9家快递服务品牌，具体为：邮政速递、顺丰速运、中通快递、圆通速递、韵达速 递、申通快递、京东快递、德邦快递和极兔速递。 调查范围覆盖50个城市，包括各直辖市、省会城市和19个快递业务量较大的城市。 满意度调查采用在线调查方式，由2025年使用快递服务的用户对下单、揽收、投递、信息查询和服务问 题处理5个方面进行满意度评价，共获得有效样本8255个。时限测试采用系统数据抽样方式，业务范围 为国内异地快件，共获得有效样本212万个。 分品牌来看，72小时妥投率较高的品牌为邮政速递、顺丰速运。【编辑:张燕玲】 在品牌公众满意度方面，得分较高的品牌为顺丰速运、京东快递。 在区域公众满意度得分方面，河南、天津、江苏、北京、青海、河北得分高于86分，满意度较高。 调查显示，2025年第三季度 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% [3][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 38.57 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 15.17%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 756 million RMB, up 15.81% year-over-year [4][6]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 13.55 billion RMB, a 13.62% increase year-over-year, and a net profit of 302 million RMB, which is a 40.32% increase year-over-year [4][6]. - The company has successfully exited a prolonged price-cutting cycle, with the average revenue per package increasing to 2.05 RMB, a year-over-year rise of 2.15% [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates primarily in the transportation sector, with a market capitalization of 22.375 billion RMB and a current share price of 15.25 RMB [1]. Financial Performance - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.68%, with a slight decrease of 0.14 percentage points year-over-year. However, Q3 gross margin improved to 6.18%, an increase of 0.74 percentage points year-over-year [6]. - The net profit margin for the first three quarters was 1.97%, up 0.06 percentage points year-over-year, while Q3 net profit margin was 2.38%, an increase of 0.69 percentage points year-over-year [6]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in single-package revenue, driven by industry price stabilization and the company's strategic acquisition of Daniao Logistics, which enhances its service offerings [6]. - Profit forecasts have been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 1.4 billion RMB, 2 billion RMB, and 2.2 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 33%, 42%, and 14% [6][8].