Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In July 2025, zinc prices fluctuated upward. However, the domestic zinc industry data is weak, with zinc ore inventories increasing and downstream consumption weakening. Overseas, the market has lowered expectations for subsequent monetary easing, and LME zinc inventories have decreased, but the contango has shown a downward trend. Domestic black commodity sentiment has also declined. Overall, the previous factors supporting zinc prices have weakened, and the risk of a subsequent decline in zinc prices has increased [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: As of August 7, SHFE zinc weighted closed up 1.03% at 22,585 yuan/ton, with total positions decreasing by 59,000 to 209,700 lots. LME zinc 3S closed up 2.66% at $2,815.5/ton, with total positions decreasing by 15,500 to 192,900 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 22,510 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: Domestic social inventories continued to accumulate to 113,200 tons, and SHFE zinc futures inventories were 13,800 tons. The basis in Shanghai was -35 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was -30 yuan/ton [11]. - **Overseas Structure**: LME zinc inventories were 89,200 tons, and LME zinc cancelled warrants were 43,100 tons. The cash - 3S contract basis was -$9.79/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$16.46/ton [11]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME ratio was 1.122, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -1,638.03 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $79/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 263,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 625,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 56.77%, 48.24%, and 56.13% respectively [11]. - **Overall Outlook**: Zinc ore inventories continued to accumulate, and TC increased rapidly. SMM estimated that domestic refined zinc production in August 2025 would be 621,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,700 tons. Downstream operating rates declined significantly last week, and short - term zinc consumption weakened. The risk of a decline in zinc prices is expected to rise [11]. 2. Macro Analysis The report presents multiple macro - related charts, including the US fiscal revenue and expenditure, debt, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, and manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, but does not provide specific text analysis [14][16][19]. 3. Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In July 2025, zinc ore production was 346,800 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.68% and a month - on - month increase of 7.53%. From January to July, the cumulative zinc ore production was 2,080,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.27%. In June 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 330,000 dry tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 32.9%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 2,533,500 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 48.0% [25]. - **Total Zinc Ore Supply**: In June 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 471,000 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.8%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 2,873,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.5% [27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In July 2025, zinc ingot production was 603,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.1% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. From January to July, the cumulative zinc ingot production was 3,843,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.7%. In June 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 38,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% and a month - on - month increase of 50.9%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 196,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 17.0% [33]. - **Total Zinc Ingot Supply**: In June 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 623,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% and a month - on - month increase of 8.5%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 3,436,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.5% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Initial - Stage Operating Rates**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.77%, with raw material inventories of 13,000 tons and finished product inventories of 344,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloys was 48.24%, with raw material inventories of 9,000 tons and finished product inventories of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 56.13%, with raw material inventories of 2,000 tons and finished product inventories of 6,000 tons [40]. - **Apparent Demand**: In June 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 607,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.0%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 3,375,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.7% [42]. 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance**: In June 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 15,400 tons. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 61,000 tons [53]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance**: In May 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 39,800 tons. From January to May, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 47,300 tons [56]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: Domestic social inventories continued to accumulate to 113,200 tons. SHFE zinc futures inventories were 13,800 tons. The basis in Shanghai was -35 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was -30 yuan/ton [61]. - **Overseas Structure**: LME zinc inventories were 89,200 tons, and LME zinc cancelled warrants were 43,100 tons. The cash - 3S contract basis was -$9.79/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$16.46/ton [64]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME ratio was 1.122, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -1,638.03 yuan/ton [67]. - **Position Analysis**: The net long positions of the top 20 in SHFE zinc declined rapidly. The net long positions of investment funds in LME zinc increased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises also increased. From the perspective of positions, it is bearish [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [6] Core View - The accumulation of zinc ingot inventories is accelerating. The zinc price is under significant pressure due to the supply pressure and the current consumption off - season. [1][5] Summary by Directory Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$9.79 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,510 yuan per ton, with a premium of -35 yuan per ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,470 yuan per ton, with a premium of -75 yuan per ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,500 yuan per ton, with a premium of -45 yuan per ton [2]. - **Futures**: On August 7, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,480 yuan per ton and closed at 22,580 yuan per ton, up 250 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 131,099 lots, and the open interest was 96,819 lots. The highest price was 22,630 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,420 yuan per ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 113,200 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 84,950 tons, a decrease of 4,275 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Market Analysis - **Supply**: In July, China's zinc ingot production was 602,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The expected production in August is 620,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 25%. The supply pressure is continuously increasing [5]. - **Cost**: There is no interference in the overseas mining end, and the domestic ore TC has increased by 100 yuan per ton, leading to higher smelting profits and continuous smelting enthusiasm [5]. - **Consumption**: The downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, and overall consumption is not bad. However, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. The inventory accumulation speed is accelerating, and the accumulation trend is expected to continue in the second half of the year [5]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [6]

Report Summary on Investment Strategies 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Bullish [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Sideways pattern [1] - **Gold**: Bullish pattern; recommended to hold short - put option positions for the 10 - contract [1][4] - **Silver**: Bullish pattern; recommended to hold long positions and short - put option positions for the 10 - contract [4] - **Copper**: Cautiously bearish [4] - **Aluminum - related Metals**: Aluminum is cautiously bullish; Alumina and Aluminum Alloy are in a sideways pattern [4] - **Nickel**: Sideways; recommended to hold short - call option positions [4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Sideways [6] - **Silicon Energy**: Sideways pattern [6] - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Sideways pattern; for rebar, hold short - put option positions; for hot - rolled coil, recommend to go long on the January contract on dips; for iron ore, consider short - put option positions for the 09 - contract or go long on the 01 - contract after the environmental protection limit expectation is fulfilled [5] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Sideways [7] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish pattern; recommend to take profit on short positions for the 09 - contract [7] - **Float Glass**: Bearish pattern for the 9 - contract; recommend to take profit on short positions and go long on the 01 - contract [7] - **Crude Oil**: Bearish pattern [7] - **Methanol**: Sideways; recommend to sell an option straddle [9] - **Polyolefins**: Sideways, trending slightly bullish [9] - **Cotton**: Bearish pattern [9] - **Rubber**: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Views - **Equity Index Futures**: With policy support, bottom - up recovery of corporate earnings, and abundant liquidity, the upward trend of the equity index is clear, and the bullish sentiment is strengthened [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: The macro - economic outlook is volatile, and although the bond market is supported by loose liquidity, there is a lack of new positive factors, so it may continue to trade at a high level [1] - **Precious Metals**: The weakening US dollar and rising Fed rate - cut expectations boost the prices of gold and silver. The gold - silver ratio has room for repair, and silver shows a clear bullish pattern [4] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Supply disruptions support prices, but demand concerns limit the upside potential. Different metals have different supply - demand situations [4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply - side disturbances are easing, and demand expectations are turning positive, with the supply - demand structure showing signs of improvement [6] - **Silicon Energy**: Industrial silicon supply is shrinking, and polysilicon has strong cost and policy support, but the actual production volume in August needs attention [6] - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Coal production control supports steel prices. Different steel products and iron ore contracts have different supply - demand and price trends [5] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal is expected to tighten, and the supply - demand of coke is expected to increase, with both in a sideways pattern [7] - **Soda Ash and Float Glass**: Soda ash has a bearish fundamental outlook, while float glass may turn around in the long - term if supply contraction expectations are fulfilled [7] - **Crude Oil**: The increasing probability of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict reduces the risk premium, leading to a short - term weakening of oil prices [7] - **Methanol**: The contradiction between loose coastal supply and tight inland supply makes it difficult for methanol prices to rise or fall, and an option straddle strategy is recommended [9] - **Polyolefins**: Supply and demand will increase simultaneously in August, and the trend will turn sideways and slightly bullish [9] - **Cotton**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a weakening trend [9] - **Rubber**: The demand outlook is improving, and the raw material price is stabilizing, so the rubber price is expected to rebound [9] 3. Summary by Categories **Equity Index Futures** - Wednesday, the equity index rose steadily, with small and micro - cap stocks leading the gains. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased slightly to 1.76 trillion yuan. The mechanical, defense, and coal industries led the gains, while the pharmaceutical and construction sectors declined. The equity index futures strengthened with the spot market, and the basis of each contract narrowed slightly. The margin balance returned to the 2 - trillion - yuan mark, and leveraged funds accelerated their entry. With positive factors such as policy support and corporate earnings recovery, the upward trend of the equity index is clear, and long positions should be held [1] **Treasury Bonds** - The bond market continued to fluctuate at a high level. There is uncertainty about trade tariffs between some countries and the US, the Fed rate - cut expectation has risen, but inflation pressure still exists. The US dollar index continued to weaken. The central bank had a net withdrawal in the open market, but the liquidity remained loose. The bond market is difficult to reverse, but there is a lack of new positive factors, so it may continue to trade at a high level [1] **Precious Metals** - Trump's announcements on tariffs and sanctions, along with rising Fed rate - cut expectations, increased the short - term upward momentum of gold prices. The gold - silver ratio has room for repair, and silver shows a clear bullish pattern. It is recommended to hold short - put option positions for gold and silver 10 - contracts and long positions for silver [4] **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Supply disruptions due to the Chilean copper mine incident and a weakening US dollar support copper prices, but weak demand expectations limit the upside [4] - **Aluminum - related Metals**: Alumina has an expected oversupply, but low warehouse receipts and market sentiment provide short - term support. The support for Shanghai Aluminum is strengthening, and its medium - term bullish pattern remains unchanged. Aluminum alloy follows the cost - based pricing logic and is in a sideways pattern [4] - **Nickel**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. Although the nickel price has rebounded due to macro - factors, the high inventory pressure limits the upside, and short - call option positions should be held [4] **Lithium Carbonate** - Due to policy impacts on the lithium resource end, the weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory pressure eased. The demand expectation has turned positive, but supply - side disturbances still exist [6] **Silicon Energy** - Industrial silicon supply is contracting passively, and polysilicon has strong cost and policy support. However, the actual production volume in August needs attention [6] **Steel and Iron Ore** - **Rebar**: The supply is restricted by environmental protection and industry policies, and the cost is supported by coal production control. The market sentiment is optimistic, and short - put option positions should be held [5] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The fundamentals are resilient, with supply constraints and cost support. It is recommended to go long on the January contract on dips [5] - **Iron Ore**: The 9 - contract is dragged down by environmental protection limits and a weak basis, while the 01 - contract has positive expectations. However, the price upside is limited, and different strategies can be adopted for different contracts [5] **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Coking Coal**: The market expects supply to tighten, but the impact of expectations on prices is greater than the fundamentals, and the risk of over - rising prices should be guarded against [7] - **Coke**: Both supply and demand are expected to increase, and the spot market is actively traded, with the futures price stabilizing and trending slightly bullish [7] **Soda Ash and Float Glass** - **Soda Ash**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to take profit on short positions for the 09 - contract [7] - **Float Glass**: The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to increase. In the long - term, if supply contraction expectations are fulfilled, the price may turn around. It is recommended to take profit on short positions for the 9 - contract and go long on the 01 - contract [7] **Crude Oil** - The increasing probability of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict reduces the risk premium, and the short - term oil price may weaken [7] **Methanol** - The port inventory is increasing, and the production enterprise inventory is decreasing. The contradiction between loose coastal supply and tight inland supply makes it difficult for prices to rise or fall, and an option straddle strategy is recommended [9] **Polyolefins** - The supply is increasing due to the restart of maintenance devices, and the demand is also rising. The trend will turn sideways and slightly bullish [9] **Cotton** - The domestic cotton production is expected to increase, and the overseas demand is affected by trade frictions. The downstream is in the off - season, and the cotton price is weakening [9] **Rubber** - The demand outlook is improving, and the raw material price is stabilizing. The rubber price is expected to rebound as it is at a relatively low level [9]

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Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Anti-Involution Policy Disturbs Prices, Fundamentals Determine Direction - Henan Region Lead-Zinc Research Report" [1] - Report Date: August 6, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Ji Xianfei, Wang Zongyuan (Contact Person) [2] Group 2: Core Views - The "anti-involution" policy indirectly boosts zinc prices by stimulating the sentiment of the black commodities market. However, most companies are not optimistic about the sustainability of subsequent prices and demand and await specific follow-up measures [3][6] - The zinc industry chain is in a stage where profits are shifting from the mining end to the smelting end. Supply pressure is increasing, and the surplus logic may become more apparent [3][9] - By-products such as sulfuric acid and small metals have stable returns, significantly improving the profits of zinc smelters [3][12] - The replacement consumption of lead batteries is still weak, but the upcoming peak consumption season may support demand. Lead smelters rely on by-products to maintain production, and future demand is more promising in Southeast Asian countries [3][14] Group 3: Impact of "Anti-Involution" Policy on Zinc - The "anti-involution" policy aims to clear out backward and ineffective production capacity, but it has no substantial impact on the zinc industry's fundamentals. In the short term, it indirectly boosts zinc prices by supporting steel prices and stimulating the restocking willingness of galvanizing enterprises [6] - Most companies are not optimistic about the sustainability of subsequent prices and demand and have no extensive production plans [3][6] Group 4: Zinc Industry Chain Analysis - The zinc industry chain is in a stage where profits are shifting from the mining end to the smelting end. Since the third quarter of last year, TC processing fees have rebounded from a low level, and the restart of high-cost mines has led to an increase in zinc concentrate supply [3][9] - Refineries and port zinc concentrate inventories are relatively abundant, and refinery profits are at a medium level in history. After the concentrated maintenance of domestic refineries in the first half of the year, the resumption of production and new project launches have increased supply pressure [3][9] - The surplus logic may become more apparent and be reflected in the accumulation of social inventories [3][9] Group 5: Zinc Smelter Profit Analysis - Zinc smelter profits are mainly calculated through processing costs, the 20/80 split, and by-product comprehensive returns. Different smelters have significant cost differences due to different raw material supply methods [11] - By-products such as sulfuric acid and small metals have stable returns, significantly improving the profits of zinc smelters. Sulfuric acid prices have been high, and small metal prices have been strong [3][12] - Many smelters are considering building new recycling production lines to increase the recycling and utilization of small metals [12] Group 6: Lead Industry Analysis - The replacement consumption of lead batteries is still weak, which restricts the supply of waste batteries. However, with the approaching peak consumption season of lead batteries, demand may increase [14] - Currently, demand remains good, and the proportion of long-term orders is stable. Lead smelters rely on by-products such as gold and silver to maintain production, and future demand is more promising in Southeast Asian countries [14] Group 7: Research Enterprise Details Enterprise A - Production: A lead comprehensive smelting enterprise with a relatively high operating rate. It relies on by-product profits to maintain production due to cost inversion [18] - Raw Materials: Purchases oxidized lead ore containing gold and silver from Inner Mongolia, etc. Non-lead concentrate raw materials include antimony-containing crude lead, lead-containing slag, copper soot, lead mud, etc. Raw material inventory can support one month of production [18] - Product Sales: Finished product inventory is generally low, but there is some inventory this year, all sold through long-term contracts to large battery enterprises [18] Enterprise B - Production: A lead-zinc comprehensive smelting enterprise with stable operation of the primary smelter. Sulfuric acid production is about 900 tons per day, and the domestic downstream fertilizer demand and export orders are good [19] - Raw Materials: Mainly uses domestic lead concentrate (about 50%), imports (about 30%), and the rest is recycled. Raw material inventory is about 20 days [19] - Product Sales: There is basically no finished product inventory, and products are mainly sold through long-term contracts. 10,000 tons of crude lead are directly sold to large smelters in Henan, and electrolytic lead is sold to downstream battery enterprises such as Tianneng [19] Enterprise C - Production: A lead-zinc comprehensive smelting enterprise operating at full capacity. It relies on by-product comprehensive returns to increase profits, with sulfuric acid production of about 1,500 tons per day and small metal production of about 100 - 150 tons per month [19] - Raw Materials: Mainly uses domestic and imported raw materials. Lead ore supply is tight, while zinc ore supply is relatively abundant [19][20] - Product Sales: Zinc ingot inventory is 4,000 - 5,000 tons, mainly sold through long-term contracts. Lead ingots have no inventory and are mainly sold to traders. Zinc alloy customers are mainly in the automotive and hardware industries in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [19][21] Enterprise D - Production: A lead-zinc comprehensive smelting enterprise with normal production scheduling. Annual mid-year maintenance has been completed [22] - Raw Materials: Mainly uses imported zinc concentrate through long-term contracts [22] - Product Sales: Zinc ingot + alloy inventory is about 5,000 tons, and lead ingots have no inventory. Customers are mainly in Shandong, Tianjin, Hebei, etc. Pricing is under pressure due to strong downstream customers [22] Enterprise E - Production: A zinc comprehensive smelting enterprise producing 1 and 0 zinc, mainly 0 zinc. By-product comprehensive returns are good, with sulfuric acid production of about 1,000 tons per day and low production costs [23] - Raw Materials: Mainly uses imported zinc concentrate, considering grade and quality [23] - Product Sales: Inventory is at a low level [24]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★★☆ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market is still assessing the impact of the Codelco underground mine accident on the annual production target, with a risk of increased supply loss rate in the second half of the year. LME copper may decline to $9,500, and short positions should be held [2]. - Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with support around 20,200 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum, and there are opportunities in the price difference between the spot and AL. Alumina is under pressure and fluctuating, with limited downside [3]. - The fundamental situation of zinc is supply increase and demand weakness, but there is a high probability of a phased rebound. Wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [4]. - Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and short positions should be actively entered [7]. - Shanghai tin is expected to be in a volatile market. High - level short positions should be closed and wait and see [8]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan [9]. - Industrial silicon futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [10]. - Polysilicon futures prices are likely to fluctuate within a range, with strong pressure around 55,000 yuan/ton and obvious support around 48,000 yuan/ton [11]. Summary by Metals Copper - Wednesday, Shanghai copper oscillated and closed up below the MA60 moving average. The current copper price is 78,350 yuan, with a premium of 100 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 55 yuan in Guangdong. The refined - scrap price difference has converged to 660 yuan. Pay attention to US trade data for June in the evening. The supply loss rate may increase in the second half of the year. LME copper may decline to $9,500, and short positions should be held [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly, with a spot discount of 40 yuan in East China. Aluminum ingots have been accumulating inventory for two consecutive weeks, and the apparent consumption in the off - season has decreased significantly year - on - year. However, the output of aluminum rods has increased month - on - month, and the inventory peak may appear in August. Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with support around 20,200 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot price has been raised by 100 yuan to 19,700 yuan. Alumina is under pressure and fluctuating, with limited downside [3] Zinc - The rebound trend of zinc is difficult to falsify. The short - selling of Shanghai zinc should reduce positions on dips. The fundamental situation is supply increase and demand weakness, but there is a high probability of a phased rebound. Wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The speculation on the "anti - involution" theme has cooled down, and nickel is returning to the fundamentals. The inventory of nickel and stainless steel is still at a high level. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and short positions should be actively entered [7] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated with position reduction during the session. It is expected to be in a volatile market. High - level short positions should be closed and wait and see [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures prices are in a weak oscillation, and the market trading has shrunk. The total inventory has slightly decreased to 142,000 tons. The futures prices are expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures closed up strongly. The spot price is stable. In August, both supply and demand are increasing. The futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures prices continued to rise. The average price of SMM polysilicon re - feeding material is 47,000 yuan/ton. The prices are likely to fluctuate within a range, with strong pressure around 55,000 yuan/ton and obvious support around 48,000 yuan/ton [11]

本周锌价震荡下行。供应端，8月国产TC较7月上涨100元/吨，进口TC继续上升。8月冶炼端增量进一步兑现。需求 端，内需季节性走弱，除上海外现货大部分转贴水;海外，欧洲需求一般，但部分炼厂因为加工费问题生产有一定阳 力，现货升贴水小幅提高。国内，社库震荡上升。海外LME库存5月后震荡去化，持仓集中度高位下降。策略方面，短 期，建议观望关注商品情绪持续性，注意仓位管理，可适当逢高空配;内外方面，内外正套可继续持有;月差方面，可留 意月间正套机会。 镍 ： 日期 1.5菲律宾镍矿 高镍铁 沪镍现货 金川升贴水 俄镍升贴水 2025/07/30 58.0 - 120950 2100 300 2025/07/31 58.0 - 119050 2200 300 2025/08/01 58.0 - 118650 2250 350 2025/08/04 58.0 - 119150 2350 350 2025/08/05 57.0 - 120000 2250 350 变化 -1.0 - 850 -100 0 日期 现货进口收益 期货进口收益 保税库premium LME C-3M LME库存 LME注销仓单 2025/07/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, supply and demand are both increasing, with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to consolidate within a range [1] - For the zinc market, in the macro - environment, the "anti - involution" sentiment in China is fluctuating, US non - farm payroll data is below expectations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strengthening. Fundamentally, both zinc ore and zinc ingot supplies are increasing, demand is in the off - season, and inventories are accumulating. However, the continuous decline in overseas LME zinc inventories provides some support. Short - term zinc prices are unlikely to drop significantly and are expected to consolidate within a range [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market Price and Spread - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,600 yuan/ton, down 0.60% [1] - Shanghai lead futures main contract closing price was 16,775 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [1] - Shanghai lead basis was - 175 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan [1] - LME 0 - 3 lead premium was - 41.92 dollars/ton, up 5.94 dollars [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Futures active contract trading volume was 40,133 lots, down 13.13% [1] - Futures active contract open interest was 72,083 lots, up 1.06% [1] - Trading volume to open interest ratio was 0.56, down 14.04% [1] Inventory - LME lead inventory was 272,975 tons, unchanged [1] - Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 58,656 tons, down 0.59% [1] News - On August 3, 2025, the Anhui Ecological Environment WeChat public account announced a campaign to collect clues on prominent problems in rural black - odorous water bodies and rural domestic sewage treatment facilities. This has affected Anhui's secondary lead smelting enterprises, with some refineries suspending production [1] Fundamental Analysis - Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is relatively stable. Secondary lead scrap battery prices are likely to rise, and some refineries have reduced or suspended production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversions. Demand is expected to enter the peak season, but enterprises are pausing purchases for inventory checks this week [1] Zinc Market Price and Spread - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,230 yuan/ton, up 0.59% [1] - Shanghai zinc futures main contract closing price was 22,380 yuan/ton, up 0.56% [1] - Shanghai zinc basis was - 150 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [1] - LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was - 13.16 dollars/ton, down 2.29 dollars [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Futures active contract trading volume was 85,449 lots, down 26.17% [1] - Futures active contract open interest was 98,472 lots, down 4.14% [1] - Trading volume to open interest ratio was 0.87, down 22.98% [1] Inventory - LME zinc inventory was 92,275 tons, unchanged [1] - Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 14,807 tons, down 0.67% [1] News - On August 5, Nyrstar received 135 million Australian dollars in transitional funding from the Australian federal, South Australian, and Tasmanian governments to support its smelters and key - metal development plans [1] Fundamental Analysis - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm are improving, with obvious production increases. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved, but end - demand is in the off - season and enterprise operations have declined [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: The price trend is volatile, and it has not yet broken out of the volatile range. It is recommended to wait and see [10][11][12]. - Stock Index Futures: It is recommended to allocate each stock index evenly. The market remains in a state of high - risk preference, where it is easy to rise and difficult to fall [13][15][16]. - US Dollar Index: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [17][20][21]. - US Stock Index Futures: Whether the economic downward pressure intensifies still needs more data verification. Attention should be paid to the callback risk at the current level [22][23][24]. - Treasury Bond Futures: August is a favorable period for the bond market. It is recommended to look for short - term opportunities to narrow the spread between T09 - 12 contracts when the bond market sentiment warms up [25][26][27]. - Agricultural Products (Beans Meal): The internal strength and external weakness will continue. The operating center of beans meal will rise [28][30][31]. - Agricultural Products (Edible Oils): For palm oil, do not short. Consider gradually laying out long positions in the 01 contract when the price pulls back to 8800 yuan/ton. For soybean oil, it is recommended to choose the 01 contract for long positions [32][33][34]. - Agricultural Products (Cotton): The short - term downward space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited. There may be a rebound before a large number of new cotton hits the market [35][37][38]. - Agricultural Products (Corn Starch): The upward movement of the price difference between rice and flour is expected to be weak [39][40]. - Black Metals (Steam Coal): It is expected that the coal price will rise to around 670 yuan (the long - term agreement price) and fluctuate. Pay attention to the price performance after the decline in rigid demand [41][42]. - Black Metals (Iron Ore): The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is difficult to fall sharply in the short term. Pay attention to the actual implementation of production restrictions in mid - August [42][43]. - Agricultural Products (Corn): In the medium to long term, corn is expected to maintain a volatile downward trend. It is recommended to continue holding short positions in new crops [44]. - Black Metals (Rebar/HRC): The short - term market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to operate with a light position [45][46][47]. - Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke): In the short term, it will fluctuate. The 09 contract will focus on the delivery situation, and the market may return to fundamentals [48][49]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Copper): It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis. Pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [50][52][53]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon): In the short term, the price may operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options [55][56][57]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon): Consider gradually stopping losses on short positions. Wait for an opportunity to go long after the macro - sentiment is released [58][59]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel): In the short term, pay attention to band trading opportunities. In the medium term, look for opportunities to short at high prices [60][61][62]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate): Wait and see before the risk event is resolved. Stop profiting from the 9 - 11 reverse arbitrage [63][64]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Lead): Look for opportunities to buy at low prices and manage positions well. Wait and see on the arbitrage side [65][66]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc): On a single - side basis, it is recommended to wait and see. Hold low - level speculative long positions with good position management. Pay attention to medium - term positive arbitrage opportunities [70][71]. - Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions): It will fluctuate in the short term [72][73]. - Energy Chemicals (Urea): Pay attention to the relevant meeting in Beijing tomorrow. The price has strong support in the short term [74][75][76]. - Energy Chemicals (Styrene): Pay attention to the opportunity to stop profiting from the position of narrowing the styrene - pure benzene price difference [77][78]. - Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda): The subsequent market will fluctuate [79][80]. - Energy Chemicals (Pulp): The market is expected to decline following the commodity market [81][82]. - Energy Chemicals (PVC): The market will fluctuate in the short term [83][84]. - Energy Chemicals (PX): It will adjust in the short - term [85][86]. - Energy Chemicals (PTA): It will adjust in the short - term [87][88][89]. Core Viewpoints - The US economic data is weak, with the ISM non - manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations. There are signs of stagflation, and the inflation pressure will increase after the implementation of tariffs. The market risk preference has weakened [11][17][20]. - China's seven - department policy on financial support for new - type industrialization and the free pre - school education policy have boosted the stock market, and the market has strong expectations for policies [13][14][15]. - The bond market's reaction to the rise of the stock market needs to be closely monitored. In early August, the fundamentals and capital situation are favorable for the bond market [25]. - For commodities, different varieties have different supply - demand situations. For example, the supply of some agricultural products is affected by weather and planting conditions, and the supply of some non - ferrous metals is affected by production capacity and inventory [35][50][52]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump criticized Powell for late interest - rate cuts and announced tariff increases, which raised market risk aversion. The US July ISM non - manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, showing stagflation risks. The gold price fluctuated and was waiting for a breakthrough [10][11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Seven departments issued a guiding opinion on financial support for new - type industrialization, and the State Council announced free pre - school education. The stock market was strong, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high this year. The market priced in policy expectations boldly and remained in a high - risk - preference state [13][14][15]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US July ISM non - manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the economic downward pressure increased. The market risk preference weakened, and the US dollar index fluctuated [17][20]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Treasury plans to issue a record - high amount of four - week Treasury bonds. The weakening of the service PMI has increased market concerns, and the US stock market is expected to continue to pull back [22][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of funds. The bond market's reaction to the rise of the stock market was dull. If it becomes insensitive to the stock market rise, the bond market can be more optimistic in the short term [25]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Beans Meal) - The far - month basis trading volume of beans meal increased. The cost of imported soybeans supported the futures price, and the market was worried about the future supply of imported soybeans [28][30]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Edible Oils) - The supply of palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia may decrease by 20% in the next five years, which has increased market concerns. The export of soybean oil from China has increased, and the price has risen [32][33]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume in the 2025/26 year will change little. The growth progress of US cotton is slightly slow, and the excellent rate is stable. The short - term downward space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited [35][37][38]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch is stable at a high level. The downstream demand is weak, and the loss of enterprises in North China is expected to expand [39][40]. 2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market is rising steadily. The price is expected to rise to around 670 yuan and fluctuate, and the daily consumption will reach an inflection point in mid - to late August [41][42]. 2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The Onslow project's iron ore shipment volume has increased significantly. The iron ore price will fluctuate, and the port inventory is expected to decline in the next 1 - 2 weeks [42][43]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions has dropped significantly, and the market sentiment has turned pessimistic. In the long - term, corn is expected to decline [44]. 2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - The passenger car sales forecast has been raised, and the steel price has rebounded. The short - term market is volatile [45][46][47]. 2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Luliang is oscillating. The supply of coal and coke is gradually recovering, and the market will oscillate in the short term [48][49]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Mitsubishi may cut its copper smelting business, and Codelco's mine has an accident. The market is worried about the US recession, and the copper price may be under pressure [50][51][53]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The photovoltaic power generation utilization rate in June was 95.4%. The spot price of polysilicon has increased slightly, and the price is expected to operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton [54][55][57]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Yunnan and Inner Mongolia Tongwei passed the industrial silicon measurement audit. The supply of industrial silicon may increase in August, but the demand from polysilicon will also rise, and the inventory may decrease [58]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory increased. The raw material price is weakening, but the nickel price is difficult to fall deeply in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities at high prices [60][61][62]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - POSCO plans to acquire lithium assets. The demand for lithium carbonate is growing, but the supply is uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see before the risk event is resolved [63][64]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount. Anhui's environmental protection measures affected the production of recycled lead. The short - term bottom of the lead price was established, but the downward trend has not been reversed [65][66]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory decreased. Glencore and Western Mining's zinc production increased. The supply of zinc is high, and the demand is weak. The zinc price will oscillate, and there is a risk of a short - term upward movement from the external market [67][68][70]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price was 72.38 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. The trading volume did not increase significantly. The CEA price is expected to fluctuate around 73 yuan/ton [72]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The government issued agricultural disaster - prevention measures. The urea price rose slightly, and the market was affected by the India tender and export policy expectations [74][75][76]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The price of caprolactam was stable. The styrene market fluctuated slightly, and the inventory was expected to increase in August. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to stop profiting from the styrene - pure benzene spread [77][78]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong decreased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The subsequent market will fluctuate [79][80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp decreased. The market was affected by weak fundamentals and the end of the "anti - involution" sentiment [81][82]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price rose. The market was affected by the rise of coking coal prices and will fluctuate in the short term [83][84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price was slightly stronger. The demand was in the off - season, and the supply was expected to increase. The price will adjust in the short term [85][86]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price weakened, and the trading improved slightly. The market was affected by the downstream off - season and followed the crude oil price. It will adjust in the short term [87][88][89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - In July, the supply growth rate of zinc ingots in China accelerated, and the supply pressure will remain high in August. The downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased after the decline of the spot market, but the high growth of supply outweighs consumption, leading to a trend of inventory accumulation. Zinc prices are under significant pressure due to the consumption off - season and supply pressure [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$10.96 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 130 yuan/ton to 22,170 yuan/ton, with a premium of -5 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 160 yuan/ton to 22,140 yuan/ton, with a premium of -35 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 120 yuan/ton to 22,150 yuan/ton, with a premium of -25 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On August 4, 2025, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,225 yuan/ton and closed at 22,255 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 115,733 lots, and the open interest was 102,725 lots. The highest price was 22,270 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,125 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of August 4, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 107,300 tons, a change of 4,100 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 97,000 tons, a change of -3,825 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - In July, China's zinc ingot production was 602,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23%. In August, the expected production is 620,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 25%. The downstream procurement enthusiasm increased after the decline of the spot market, and the spot discount was repaired. The cost of domestic ore TC increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit increased. The downstream operating rate showed relative resilience, but the high growth of supply led to inventory accumulation, and zinc prices are under pressure [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]