1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the price of edible oils will fluctuate. Palm oil can be traded with a high - selling and low - buying strategy, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend of the edible oil market due to a lack of independent driving factors. For the trading of spreads and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Price and Basis**: The closing price of soybean oil 2605 is 7986 with a decline of 8. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8506, 8546, and 8376 respectively, with corresponding basis of 560, 520, and 390. The closing price of palm oil 2605 is 8778 with an increase of 54. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 8748, 8768, and 8908 respectively, with corresponding basis of - 30, - 10, and 130. The closing price of rapeseed oil 2605 is 9017 with an increase of 37. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi are 9817 and 10017 respectively, with corresponding basis of 800 and 1000 [2] - **Monthly Spread**: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of soybean oil is 144 with an increase of 14, that of palm oil is 100 with a decline of 6, and that of rapeseed oil is 31 with an increase of 13 [2] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: For the 05 contract, the Y - P spread is - 792 with a decline of 62, the OI - Y spread is 1031, and the OI - P spread is 239 with a decline of 17. The oil - meal ratio is 2.89 with an increase of 0.03 [2] - **Import Profit**: The CNF price of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia for the 2 - month shipment is 1062.5, and the FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam for the 2 - month shipment is 1050, with a negative profit of - 1369 [2] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: As of the second week of 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 102.5 million tons, that of palm oil is 73.6 million tons, and that of rapeseed oil is 25.1 million tons [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: In December 2026, India's palm oil imports were 507,204 tons, lower than November's 632,341 tons; sunflower oil imports were 349,929 tons, higher than November's 142,953 tons; soybean oil imports were 505,112 tons, higher than November's 370,661 tons. Total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, higher than November's 1.18 million tons [4] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of January 9, 2026, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 73.6 million tons, a 0.30% increase from the previous week. The origin price was stable, and the import profit inversion narrowed. There were rumors of two near - month purchases. After - market news that Indonesia may not implement B50 this year led to a decline in the Malaysian market. The short - term market lacks a clear driving force, and the high - inventory situation will continue, with a slow de - stocking speed. The short - term price will fluctuate [4] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: The soybean oil price declined slightly. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 1.7658 million tons, with an operating rate of 48.58%. As of January 9, 2026, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.0251 million tons, a 5.17% decrease from the previous week. The inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the basis is stable. The weekly trading volume increased. There are rumors of customs clearance delays. With a decrease in soybean arrivals, the soybean oil inventory may decline slightly, but the overall supply is sufficient, and the price will fluctuate at a low level [6] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil price increased slightly. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume in coastal areas was 0, and the inventory of rapeseed was exhausted. As of January 9, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 251,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from the previous week, at a relatively neutral level. The European rapeseed oil FOB price was stable at around $1050, and the import profit inversion widened to around - 1300. The domestic available rapeseed oil supply is tight, and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. In the short term, rumors of state reserves release in the first quarter and the expectation of improved China - Canada relations restrict the upward space of near - month contracts, but the firm offer from COFCO and the time required for rapeseed purchases to arrive provide support for the price [7] 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: Short - term, edible oils will fluctuate. Palm oil can be traded with a high - selling and low - buying strategy, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend of the edible oil market [9] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10] - **Options**: Wait and see [11] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides eight figures, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and various monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different oils, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [14][15][22]

Report Overview - Report Date: January 13, 2026 [2] - Report Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - After the MPOB report, palm oil prices are expected to remain oscillating and strengthening this week, but the upside is limited by high inventory [8] - Driven by policy expectations, rapeseed oil prices are likely to continue the downward trend this week [8] - Domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to decline in Q1, soybean oil basis is strong, and the futures price is well - supported at 7,800 - 8,000 [8] - For arbitrage, go long on soybean oil and palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: In the East China market, the basis price of Grade 3 rapeseed oil, Grade 1 soybean oil, and Grade 3 soybean oil, as well as the quotes of rapeseed oil in Dongguan and palm oil in Dongguan, showed different trends from January to May [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: After the release of the MPOB report, palm oil is expected to be oscillating and strengthening; rapeseed oil is likely to decline; soybean oil futures are trending strongly, and an arbitrage strategy of long soybean oil and palm oil, short rapeseed oil is recommended [8] 2. Industry News - **Palm Oil Production**: From January 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 20.49% month - on - month, with the FFB yield down 20.49% and OER unchanged [9] - **Palm Oil Exports**: From January 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 29.2% (ITS data) or 17.7% (AmSpec data) compared to the same period in December. Exports to China decreased by 31,000 tons [10][17] 3. Data Overview - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, domestic soybean oil inventory was 1.209 million tons, down 77,000 tons from last week; the contract volume was 1.606 million tons, up 69,000 tons [17]

研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2026 年 01 月 12 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | 2026/1/12 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2605收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | 豆油 | 7994 | 0 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8514 | | | | 8564 | 8384 | 570 | | 0 | 520 0 | 390 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8724 | 42 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8694 | | | | 8684 | 8854 | -30 | | 0 | - ...

1月9日，大连商品交易所豆油期货迎来上市二十周年。 业内人士认为，这些举措回应了境内外产业主体对豆油期货对外开放的呼声，为全球大豆产业链提供了丰富高效的定价和风险管理工具。同时，也有利于及 时全面向全球传递我国作为豆油主产区、主销区的市场信息，提升豆油品种"中国价格"和"中国品质"的国际影响力。 上市以来，豆油期货持续稳健运行—— 看市场容量，日均成交量由2006年的4.31万手增至2025年的44.50万手，日均持仓量由2.42万手增至84.44万手，流动性持续提升，风险承载力显著增强； 看交割布局，超30家豆油期货交割库分布于天津、河北、山东、江苏、浙江、广东、广西等7个省区市，覆盖范围广，交割能力充足，为产业企业参与期货 市场提供了坚实保障…… 随着功能发挥水平、市场认可度和产业参与度持续提升，豆油期货正有效服务相关产业企业应对价格风险、实现高质量发展。 大商所官网截图 当前，油脂行业企业"拥抱"豆油期货已是普遍现象。国内90%以上大中型大豆压榨企业运用豆油期货进行套期保值，国内大型大豆压榨企业90%以上的豆油 销售采用"大商所期货价格+升贴水"的定价模式，豆油期货价格已经成为境内豆油现货贸易的重要定价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Dalian Commodity Exchange's soybean oil futures have successfully operated for twenty years, enhancing market recognition and participation, effectively serving related industries in managing price risks and achieving high-quality development [1]. Market Capacity - Since its launch, the average daily trading volume of soybean oil futures has increased from 43,100 contracts in 2006 to 445,000 contracts in 2025, while the average daily open interest has risen from 24,200 contracts to 844,400 contracts, indicating improved liquidity and risk-bearing capacity [1]. Delivery Layout - As of the end of 2025, there are 33 delivery warehouses for soybean oil futures, including 8 warehouses and 25 factory warehouses, distributed across seven provinces and regions, ensuring sufficient delivery capacity for industry participants [1]. Contract Rule Optimization - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has implemented various measures to optimize contract rules, adapting to industry trends and changes in the spot market, ensuring that soybean oil futures closely align with the spot market and support industry development [2]. Industry Participation - Over 90% of medium and large soybean crushing enterprises in China utilize soybean oil futures for hedging, with over 90% of sales using the pricing model of "Dalian Commodity Exchange futures price + basis," establishing soybean oil futures as a key pricing benchmark in domestic spot trade [3]. External Opening - Soybean oil futures have achieved full-path external opening, enhancing service capabilities for the global oilseed industry. In 2022, soybean oil futures were included in the list of tradable products for Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFIIs), and a related contract was launched on the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange in 2024 [4]. Production and Consumption - China has become the world's largest producer and consumer of soybean oil, with an estimated production of 18.71 million tons and consumption of 18.61 million tons in 2025, each accounting for approximately 30% of global totals [5]. Future Development - The Dalian Commodity Exchange plans to further optimize soybean oil futures, ensuring stable operation and close alignment with the spot market, while enhancing market cultivation and increasing industry client participation to contribute to the high-quality development of China's oilseed industry [5].

Core Insights - Indonesia's palm oil and its derivatives export volume reached 20.85 million tons in the first 11 months of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.32% [1] - The export value for the same period was $21.63 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 19% [1] Export Performance - In November 2025, Indonesia's palm oil export volume dropped to 1.36 million tons, a significant year-on-year decline of 28.86% [1] - The decrease in exports was influenced by rising domestic biodiesel demand and weakening international market prices [1] Price Trends - The price of Malaysian crude palm oil, a key reference for the global palm oil market, was approximately $970.36 per ton in November 2025, representing a month-on-month decrease of about 6.52% and a year-on-year decline of approximately 16.96% [1] Trade Balance - Indonesia achieved a trade surplus of $38.54 billion, maintaining a trade surplus for 67 consecutive months [1] - The export performance of animal and vegetable oils was particularly strong, contributing significantly to the trade surplus [1] Future Plans - The Indonesian government plans to officially implement the B50 biodiesel blending program in the second half of 2026 [1]

研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2026 年 01 月 06 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | 2026/1/6 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2605收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 7912 | 56 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8432 | | | | 8482 | 8322 | 570 | 10 | 520 | 0 | 410 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8500 | 12 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8480 | | | | 8490 | 8630 | -20 | 10 | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the stock index may continue a relatively strong trend, but attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitical events on market risk appetite. In the long - term, the stock index is expected to rise in 2026 based on 2025 [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have various trends, including price increases, oscillations, and potential reversals, with corresponding investment strategies recommended [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Short - term, the stock index may continue to be strong, and in the long - term (2026), it is expected to rise on the basis of 2025 due to factors like continuous policy efforts, inflation recovery, capital market reform, and the support of Central Huijin [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks, and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price has further increased due to weak industry fundamentals but positive macro sentiment and continuous premium. However, short - term adjustment risks should be guarded against, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of supply - tightness expectations are likely to keep the price strong [1]. - Alumina: The supply side has a large release space, and the weak industry fundamentals put pressure on the price. However, the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, recent negative factors have been mostly realized, and market sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Nickel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about supply due to Indonesian events, slow inventory accumulation, and unconfirmed Indonesian policies are likely to keep the short - term price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices and control risks [1]. - Stainless Steel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about raw - material supply, a rebound in nickel - iron prices, a slight reduction in social inventory, and an increase in January production plans are likely to keep the short - term futures price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell and hedge [1]. - Tin: The industry association's initiative has put pressure on the price, but considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, the supply may still be affected. After a short - term decline, the downward space is limited, and low - long opportunities near the support level are recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks and international - order uncertainties have boosted the demand for hedging, making the price strong in the short - term. However, the high VIX of silver indicates potential risks. Platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long - platinum short - palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: There is a combination of weak reality (weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation) and strong expectation (potential supply disturbances from energy - consumption control and anti - involution). The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, while the far - month contract has upward potential [1]. - Steel (including Rebar): The valuation of the price is not high, and it is not recommended to short. Positions in cash - and - carry arbitrage can take rolling profits [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are acceptable, and the valuation is low, so the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply and demand, low valuation, and limited downward space, and may oscillate under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the corresponding position and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the implementation of the price cut. There is a high possibility of wide - range oscillations [1]. - Coke: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the price [1]. - Fuel Oil: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand is falsified, the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The cost is strongly supported, the spot - futures price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1]. - Rubber: For natural rubber, the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate, and the price oscillates. For BR rubber, the futures position has declined, the price increase has slowed down, the processing profit is gradually repaired, it maintains high - level operation in terms of production and inventory, and the spot trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp increase, and the domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the recovery of exports to India since the end of November [1]. - MEG: Two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production due to efficiency reasons. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the downstream polyester operating rate is over 90%, with better - than - expected demand [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while buyers keep pressing prices due to weak downstream demand and profit compression. The market is in a weak - balance state, and the short - term upward momentum depends on overseas market drive [1]. - Steam: The upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the cost is strongly supported by high - level propylene monomers and rising crude - oil prices, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1]. - PVC: The global production in 2026 is expected to be low, but currently, new capacity is being released, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [1]. - Chlorine: The inventory pressure in Shandong is large, the supply pressure is high due to high - level operation and few overhauls, the non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakened by the rising price of liquid chlorine [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost - end support. Geopolitical conflicts in the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East have increased the short - term risk premium. The EIA weekly C3 inventory is in an accumulation trend, with a temporary slowdown in overseas demand. The domestic PDH maintains high - level operation but is deeply in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending - oil demand is acceptable [1]. New Energy and Silicon Industry - Polysilicon: There is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest. The December production plan has decreased. A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large enterprises are willing to support the price but not to deliver. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply - side production resumption has increased, and the price has risen rapidly in the short - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be negative, but it may reverse under themes such as seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1]. - Soybean Oil: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term, and waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: News of blocked trader purchases and Australian seed imports has led to a large rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent loosening of the fundamental situation. A decline in sentiment is expected, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [1]. - Cotton: The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to factors such as the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a large supply of domestic new - crop sugar, with a strong consensus on short - selling. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: The grass - roots grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to have limited decline and then maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [1]. - Soybeans: Attention should be paid to the adjustment in the January USDA report and the impact of Brazilian harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, while the M03 - M05 spread is expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short - term, but caution should be exercised due to potential changes in customs policies, soybean auctions, and directional policies [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug - of - war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottom - rebounding, and the downward space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors in the spot - futures market. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Livestock - Hogs: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently, with demand support. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with the unchanged policy support for the capital market, the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [2][3]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement of market expectations for the economy may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [4][6]. - For precious metals, there may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [7][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and market sentiment, with different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to slow down in their upward trend; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong; zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term; lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have bottomed out in the short term; tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment; and the prices of some non - ferrous metal products such as stainless steel and casting aluminum alloy also have their own trends [10][11][13] [16][17][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations; glass prices may have some upward potential; and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [32][33][35]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be observed; the valuation of heavy - oil products in crude oil is expected to increase; methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies; and the trends of pure benzene, styrene, and other products are also affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [49][50][55]. - For agricultural products, the short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse; egg prices have limited upside and downside space; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate; the current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic; sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest; and cotton prices are recommended to go long on dips after a correction [78][79][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The CSRC will strengthen the coordination of administrative, criminal, and civil actions to combat financial fraud. Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks, expecting a 15% - 20% annual increase in 2026 and 2027. The basis ratios of stock - index futures are provided [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with policy support, the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts have different changes. The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced policies for Yangtze River protection projects. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver have increased. Weak US manufacturing PMI data and geopolitical issues have strengthened the expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy, leading to a short - term increase in precious - metal prices [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of LME copper has reached 13,000 US dollars for the first time. The price of domestic copper has continued to be strong, with changes in inventory and basis [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down, with support from supply - side factors and pressure from demand - side factors [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic and international aluminum have accelerated their upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by factors such as supply - side disturbances and the high prices of precious metals and copper [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The prices of zinc futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand relationships [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The prices of lead futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and market sentiment [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has oscillated, with changes in spot premiums and cost factors [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared, and it is recommended to observe in the short term [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has increased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium has increased, with changes in futures prices and inventory [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium are expected to improve, but there are concerns about demand if prices remain high. It is recommended to observe or take a light - position attempt [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe. If there is no actual production - reduction action, short positions can be considered on rallies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to consider going long on dips and pay attention to the implementation of policies [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has accelerated its upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by cost and supply - side factors [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has decreased, and the price of soda ash has decreased. There are changes in inventory and basis [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass prices may have some upward potential, and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are affected by factors such as market sentiment, cost, and supply - side disturbances [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has decreased, and the price of polysilicon has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [43][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment [44][47]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has oscillated and increased, with different views from bulls and bears [49][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has decreased, and the prices of refined - oil products have also changed, with changes in inventory [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to increase [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol have changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips [57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea have changed, with a certain basis [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have changed, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and basis [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is considered that the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair, and it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has decreased, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies before significant production cuts in the industry [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol needs to be improved through increased production cuts, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of para - xylene has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [74][75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - surplus pattern of PP may change in the first quarter of next year, and the price may bottom out [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs in different regions have changed, with different supply and demand situations in the north and south [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have changed, with stable supply and different digestion speeds in the terminal market [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices have limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to short on rallies [81][82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have changed, with changes in spot prices and inventory [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as import costs and inventory [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of oils and fats futures have decreased, with changes in spot prices and inventory [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic. The prices are not far from the bottom range [87][88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures has increased, with changes in spot prices and production data in different regions [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and the short - term downside space of domestic sugar prices is limited [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures has changed, with changes in spot prices, supply, demand, and inventory [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on cotton after a correction, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policy expectations [93].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Galaxy Futures Oil Daily Report - Report Date: January 5, 2026 - Report Type: Agricultural Product Research Report [1][2] Group 2: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - **Soybean Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 7,856 with a decrease of 6. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8,376, 8,416, and 8,266 respectively. Basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 560 (unchanged), 520 (unchanged), and 410 (up 10) [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 8,488 with a decrease of 96. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8,458, 8,478, and 8,608 respectively. Basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were -30 (unchanged), -10 (unchanged), and 120 (unchanged) [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 9,044 with a decrease of 43. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi were 9,794 and 9,994 respectively. Basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi were 750 (down 50) and 950 (unchanged) [2]. Monthly Spreads - **Soybean Oil 5 - 9**: The closing price was 126 with a decrease of 4. - **Palm Oil 5 - 9**: The closing price was 112 with a decrease of 10. - **Rapeseed Oil 5 - 9**: The closing price was 35 with a decrease of 24 [2]. Cross - Variety Spreads - **Y - P (05 contract)**: The spread was -632 with an increase of 90. - **OI - Y (05 contract)**: The spread was 1,188 with a decrease of 37. - **OI - P (05 contract)**: The spread was 556 with an increase of 53. - **Oil - Meal Ratio**: The ratio was 2.85 with a decrease of 0.01 [2]. Import Profits - **24 - degree Palm Oil (Malaysia & Indonesia)**: The CNF price was 1,045 for a 2 - month ship - ment, with a negative profit of 233. - **Rapeseed Oil (Rotterdam)**: The FOB price was 1,030 for a 1 - month ship - ment, with a negative profit of 1,193 [2]. Weekly Commercial Inventories (in 10,000 tons, Week 52, 2025) - **Soybean Oil**: This week's inventory was 108.9, last week was 112.4, and last year was 93.3. - **Palm Oil**: This week's inventory was 73.4, last week was 70.0, and last year was 50.2. - **Rapeseed Oil**: This week's inventory was 29.1, last week was 30.8, and last year was 48.4 [2] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December is expected to reach a nearly seven - year high. The median estimate of 10 traders, planters, and analysts indicates a 4.7% month - on - month increase to 2.97 million tons. Production is expected to be 1.76 million tons, down 9% from the previous month, and exports are expected to grow 2.8% to 1.25 million tons [4] Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: Futures prices closed down more than 1%. As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory in key regions was 72.67 million tons, a 1.01% decrease from last week. It is at a slightly above - average level in the historical range. Import profit inversion has narrowed, and there are reports of three near - month purchases. The basis is stable. It lacks a clear driver, and a "sell on rallies" strategy is recommended [4][5] - **Soybean Oil**: Futures prices closed slightly down. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 175,330 tons, with an operating rate of 48.23%. As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory in key regions was 1.081 million tons, a 0.73% decrease from last week. It is at a high level in the historical range, but the inventory has reached an inflection point. The basis is stable with a slight decline. The market is quiet, and some mills have stopped due to lack of soybeans. Supply is sufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [5] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Futures prices closed slightly down. Last week, the crushing volume in coastal regions was 0 tons, and the operating rate was 0%. As of January 2, 2026, the coastal inventory was 273,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons. It is at a high level in the historical range but is continuously decreasing. The FOB price in Europe is stable at around $1,050, and the import profit inversion has widened to around - 1,200. The basis is stable with a slight decline, and the market is quiet. Policy has a significant impact, and the price is still strongly supported [6] Group 4: Trading Strategies Unilateral - Short - term, oils are expected to fluctuate with increased volatility. Palm oil should be sold on rallies, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend of the oil market due to lack of drivers [8] Arbitrage - Hold a wait - and - see attitude [9] Options - Hold a wait - and - see attitude [10] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes 8 figures showing various indicators such as spot basis, monthly spreads, cross - variety spreads of different oils from 2017 - 2026 [13][14][19][23]