Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Views Macro and Financial Futures - Domestic supportive policies are gradually taking effect. In September, policies to promote service consumption will be the focus, which will support the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods to some extent, but the actual effect remains to be seen. Policies in the real - estate sector are advancing, but their impact on the overall market may be limited. The profitability of industrial enterprises has not been fundamentally improved. Overseas, the US economy and employment have shown resilience, and key economic data next week should be closely monitored [2]. - The core issue of the RMB exchange rate is the timing and pace of appreciation. In the short - term, the RMB is likely to appreciate, and the market may reach a "triple - price integration" pattern around 7.10. In the medium - term, the RMB needs a clear downward trend of the US dollar index and substantial positive changes in the domestic economy to achieve a trend - strengthening [4][5]. - As the 9.3 parade approaches, the stock index is expected to have increased volatility. The stock market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, while the bond market may expand its rebound space if the stock market experiences a high - level adjustment after September 3 [7][8]. Commodities Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and strong in the short - term. The focus should be on US economic data this week, and the strategy is to buy on dips [12][15]. - Copper is expected to oscillate before the Fed's next interest - rate decision on September 19, with a mid - term strategy of low - level procurement [16][17]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. Alumina is expected to be weakly volatile, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [20][21]. - Zinc is expected to be strongly oscillating at the bottom in the short - term [23][24]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices rose under the influence of the Indonesian riot and strike. The short - term trend remains to be seen, depending on the development of the situation in Indonesia [24][25]. - Tin is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term due to tight supply [26]. - The lithium carbonate market is in an adjustment phase. If downstream demand is released, prices may be supported; otherwise, it may remain weakly volatile [26][28]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner. The rise of polysilicon is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a possible storage platform in September [29]. - Lead is expected to oscillate within a narrow range, with limited upside and downside [30]. Black Metals - Steel products continue to accumulate inventory beyond the seasonal norm. If demand does not improve, the downward space of the steel futures market depends on the tolerance of steel mills for profit shrinkage. Short - sellers can consider reducing positions to take profits [32][33]. - Iron ore prices have released risks. After the short - term risk release, short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. - Coking coal may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillatory pattern in the short - term. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade. Unilateral speculation on short - selling coking coal is not recommended for now [37]. - Silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to oscillate at the bottom. It is advisable to go long on the spread between the two when the spread reaches - 400 [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is currently oscillating weakly. In September, the demand decline is a definite negative factor, and the market needs to wait for key events to clarify the direction. The overall outlook is bearish [42][43]. - Propylene's spot market is strong, and the futures market is oscillating. The northern market is tighter than the southern market [44][45]. - PX - TA's market is mainly characterized by structural contradictions. The overall pattern is "tight at the top and loose at the bottom," and the processing fee of PTA01 is recommended to be compressed when it is above 350 [46][49]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate between 4330 - 4550, and it is advisable to go long on dips [53]. - PP's supply is increasing, and the demand situation is unclear. Its future trend depends on whether downstream demand can maintain high - speed growth [54][55]. - PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly. It is expected to oscillate for now [56][57]. - PVC's price has returned to the industrial fundamentals. With high inventory and weak demand, it is advisable to short - allocate it [58][59]. - Pure benzene is expected to be weakly oscillating, and for benzene - styrene, short - selling on the short - term single - side is not recommended. Wait for the end of the decline and then consider low - buying [60][61]. - Fuel oil has a weak rebound driven by cost, but the downward pressure remains. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows cost fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait for long - allocation opportunities [63][64]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate and strengthen, mainly following cost fluctuations. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance [65][66]. - Urea is in a stalemate. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Financial Futures Market Information - China's September 3 parade will last about 70 minutes. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization's Tianjin Summit has achieved eight results. There are various tariff - related news, including Trump's remarks on India's tariffs and possible US housing policies. There are also speculations about Fed officials' appointments [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1332, down 2 basis points, and the night - session was at 7.1375. The central parity rate was 7.1072, down 42 basis points. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August showed expansion [3]. Stock Index - The stock index rose with reduced volume yesterday. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed up 0.60%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 483.37 billion yuan. The futures of stock index also rose with reduced volume. The 9.3 parade is approaching, and key economic data have been released [7]. Bond - Bond futures opened low and closed high on Monday. The yields of medium - and long - term bonds declined. The funding situation was loose, and DR001 dropped to 1.31%. Relevant policies and the end of the summer travel season have been reported [8]. Container Shipping - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) opened high and then oscillated. Spot prices of some shipping companies have changed. The Houthi armed forces' remarks have affected the market sentiment. The current market is in the off - season, and the SCFIS European line index has continued to decline [10][11]. Commodities Metals Gold and Silver - On Monday, the precious metals market continued to be strong. COMEX gold closed up 0.84% at 3545.8 dollars per ounce, and silver closed up 2.46% at 41.725 dollars per ounce. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and fund positions are stable. Key US economic data and events this week should be monitored [12][15]. Copper - The Shanghai copper index was slightly bullish on Monday. Chile's copper production in July increased slightly. The collapse of a copper mine in July and the reduction of production guidance in August have affected the market. The key factors affecting copper prices are complex, with both bullish and bearish factors in the short - to - medium - term [16][17]. Aluminum and Related Products - The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy have changed. The macro - environment is favorable for aluminum prices. The fundamentals of alumina are weak, and the supply of cast aluminum alloy may be affected by tax policies [19][22]. Zinc - The zinc price opened high and closed low. The supply is in an oversupply state, and the demand is stable. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the trading strategy of selling the outer market and buying the inner market can be considered [23][24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The price of nickel rose, and stainless steel fell slightly. The spot prices of nickel - related products have changed. The market was affected by the Indonesian riot and strike, and the supply uncertainty has increased [24][25]. Tin - The Shanghai tin index slightly declined on Monday. Yunnan Tin's equipment maintenance and the decrease in refined tin production in August have affected the market. The short - term price may rise slightly due to tight supply [26]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fell on Monday. The prices of lithium - related products in the spot market have declined. The supply has no new news, and the demand has marginal improvement expectations, but the increase in warehouse receipts may suppress the short - term price [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon rose on Monday. The prices of related products in the spot market are stable. The rise of polysilicon is affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a storage platform [26][29]. Lead - The lead price oscillated narrowly. The supply side is weak, and the demand is in a "peak - season not prosperous" situation. The domestic inventory is oscillating, and the LME inventory is high [30]. Black Metals Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The production of Tangshan's blast furnaces has been affected by inspections, and most are expected to resume production on September 4. The steel market is in a state of over - seasonal inventory accumulation, and the demand has not shown significant seasonal strength [32][33]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore fell and then rebounded. The global iron ore shipment volume in late August increased. The market is worried about the insufficient demand in the peak season, and short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke declined. The prices of coking coal in some regions have decreased. The downstream's replenishment of raw materials has slowed down, and the supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade [36][37]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - The production and demand of silicon iron and silicon manganese have changed. The market was affected by the pre - parade steel mill restrictions and the decline of the "anti - involution" hype. The prices have fallen back, and the bottom support exists, but the upside is also under pressure [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The prices of US and Brent crude oil rose. There are news about the suspension of oil sales to an Indian refinery, the change in Shandong refineries' crude oil arrivals, and the expectation of OPEC+ to maintain production. The oil market is currently oscillating weakly, and the September demand decline is a negative factor [41][43]. Propylene - The futures prices of propylene rose slightly. The spot prices in different regions have changed. The supply and demand of propylene and its downstream products have changed. The spot market is tight, and the price is affected by multiple factors [44][45]. PTA - PX - The load of PX and PTA plants has changed. The supply of PX in September is expected to increase, and the PTA supply has decreased. The polyester demand has a marginal improvement, but the peak - season performance is not super - expected [46][48]. MEG - Bottle Chip - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports decreased. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol and related products have changed. The market is currently in a state of limited drive, and the price is expected to oscillate [50][53]. PP - The futures price of polypropylene decreased. The supply has increased, and the demand has shown a recovery trend. The inventory has decreased. The market is affected by new device production and the uncertainty of demand [54][55]. PE - The futures price of polyethylene decreased. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased. The current demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly [56][57]. PVC - The production of PVC in August and September is estimated. The demand is weak, and the export has changed. The inventory is accumulating, and the price has returned to the industrial fundamentals [58][59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures decreased. The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in ports has increased. The supply and demand of both have changed, and the prices are expected to be volatile [60][61]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil rebounded weakly. The supply and demand of fuel oil have changed. The export in August decreased, and the demand is mixed. The market is still under pressure [62][63]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price of low - sulfur fuel oil is mainly following cost fluctuations. The supply and demand and inventory of low - sulfur fuel oil have changed. The valuation is low, and it is advisable to wait for long - allocation opportunities [64]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt rose. The supply and demand and inventory of asphalt have changed. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance, and it mainly follows cost fluctuations [65][66]. Urea - The futures price of urea is in a stalemate. The spot price is stable, and the demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Fats and Oils Industry - Palm oil futures are expected to return to 4500 ringgit, and the domestic palm oil futures may gradually rise after the adjustment, with a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength. US soybean oil has a downward space in the short term, while domestic soybean oil may see a decrease in inventory and a rise in the spot basis in the future [1]. Corn Industry - The short - term corn futures are in a rebound and consolidation stage, and the medium - term situation remains weak. It is advisable to consider shorting on rallies [2]. Sugar Industry - The international raw sugar is expected to consolidate in the 15 - 17 cents/pound range. The domestic sugar price will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate narrowly around 5500 - 5700 [7]. Cotton Industry - The cotton price center has risen, but there is no obvious upward driving force. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the range of 13500 - 14500 yuan/ton [8]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is stabilizing with slight fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the support levels of the 11 and 01 contracts [9]. Meal Industry - The domestic meal prices have limited downward space. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize and then go long at low levels in the 3000 - 3050 range [11]. Egg Industry - Egg prices may rebound in early September, but the overall increase is limited, maintaining a bearish view [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils Industry - **Price Changes**: On August 29, Y2601 decreased by 0.52%, and the palm oil futures price also showed certain fluctuations. The price of soybean oil and palm oil in the spot market also changed to different degrees [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Malaysian palm oil production growth is lower than export growth, and the market expects limited inventory growth at the end of August. The US biodiesel policy for soybean oil is unclear, and the domestic demand for soybean oil is improving [1]. Corn Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of corn 2511 increased by 0.27%, and the price of corn starch 2511 increased by 0.32%. The spot prices and spreads also changed [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Northeast corn traders have insufficient inventory, but there is supplementary auction grain. Spring corn in North China is gradually on the market, and the new - season corn has a large expected increase in production. The demand side has relatively sufficient inventory and weak purchasing enthusiasm [2]. Sugar Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.04%, and the price of ICE raw sugar decreased by 0.97%. The spot prices and spreads also changed [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of raw sugar is expected to increase, but the Brazilian sugar production may be revised down. The 09 contract is affected by beet warehouse receipts, and the demand side is relatively stable during the double festivals [7]. Cotton Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of cotton 2509 increased by 0.73%, and the price of cotton 2601 increased by 1.21%. The spot prices and spreads also changed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of new cotton is yet to be verified, the inventory is relatively tight before the new cotton is on the market, the demand has improved marginally since August, but the downstream improvement is not obvious [8]. Pig Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of live pigs 2511 decreased by 0.26%, and the price of live pigs 2601 decreased by 0.50%. The spot prices and spreads also changed [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of pigs is stabilizing, the slaughter volume has increased, and the market demand is expected to improve with the approach of the school season and cooler weather, but there may be a wave of concentrated slaughter before the double festivals [9]. Meal Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of soybean meal M2601 increased by 0.53%, and the price of rapeseed meal RM2601 increased by 1.21%. The spot prices, spreads, and crushing margins also changed [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The expected high yield of US soybeans suppresses the market, the Sino - US negotiation has no substantial progress, and the domestic supply concern has eased [11]. Egg Industry - **Price Changes**: On September 1, 2025, the price of egg 09 contract increased by 0.28%, and the price of egg 10 contract increased by 0.31%. The spot prices, spreads, and related indicators also changed [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in September may decrease, and the demand will weaken after the Mid - Autumn Festival [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Market Overview**: The A - share market showed a strong oscillation on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.46% to 3875.53 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.29%. The trading volume in the market was 2.78 trillion yuan. The non - ferrous industry strengthened across the board, and gold stocks soared. The CPO giants led the AI hardware segment to strengthen again, while the satellite Internet concept weakened and the large - finance sector declined generally [1]. - **Key Products Analysis** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver showed a strong upward trend. Factors such as Trump's attempt to interfere with the Fed, the proposed inclusion of silver in the key minerals list, and the increased expectation of a September interest rate cut were positive for precious metals. However, factors like the rebound of US inflation data and the easing of geopolitical risks restricted the upward space of gold. In the long - term, the continuous increase of gold reserves by the People's Bank of China provided support for gold [2]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index rose in the previous trading session, with the communication sector leading the gain and the non - bank financial sector leading the decline. The trading volume was 2.78 trillion yuan. In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September increases the attractiveness of RMB assets. The market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but sector rotation is accelerating [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment and has high volatility. The supply is increasing, and the demand for lithium in cathode materials is also rising. The inventory situation is complex, with upstream de - stocking and downstream restocking. There is a risk of correction after the previous rapid increase, but if the inventory starts to decline, the lithium price may rise [4]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Daily Main News Concerns - **International News**: Fed理事提名人米兰很可能在9月美联储会议前就职，几位美联储主席人选也有望担任理事 [6]. - **Domestic News**: President Xi Jinping stated at the "Shanghai Cooperation Organization +" meeting that China is willing to jointly build an AI application cooperation center with all parties to share the dividends of AI development [7]. - **Industry News**: In the first half of this year, the total net profit attributable to the parent company of A - share listed companies was 2.99 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.45%. Nearly 77% of the stocks achieved profitability, and the proportion of stocks with a year - on - year positive growth in net profit attributable to the parent company was nearly 46%. Wanchen Group had a 504 - fold increase in performance in the first half of the year [8]. b. Overseas Market Daily Returns | Variety | Unit | 8/31 | 9/1 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FTSE China A50 Futures | Points | 14,965.58 | 14,904.15 | - 61.43 | - 0.41% | | London Gold Spot | US dollars/ounce | 3,447.57 | 3,478.96 | 31.39 | 0.91% | | London Silver | US dollars/ounce | 39.67 | 40.65 | 0.98 | 2.47% | [9] c. Morning Comments on Major Products - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index rose in the previous trading session, with the communication sector leading the gain and the non - bank financial sector leading the decline. The trading volume was 2.78 trillion yuan. The market is in a favorable situation, but sector rotation needs attention [3][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond falling to 1.77%. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 1057 billion yuan. The Fed's possible interest rate cut and the domestic economic situation affect the bond market, and the stock - bond seesaw effect continues [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 1.1% at night. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine affect oil exports, and OPEC and its allies will discuss production policies. The market is concerned about OPEC's production increase [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.68% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory in coastal areas increased. The short - term trend is mainly bullish [14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber had a narrow - range oscillation on Monday. The price is mainly supported by the supply side, but the demand side is weak. The short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded after hitting the bottom. The spot market is mainly affected by supply and demand, and the inventory is slowly being digested. It remains to be seen whether the futures can drive the spot price to stop falling [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures mainly declined, and soda ash futures continued to be weak. Both are in a process of inventory digestion, and the market focuses on supply - side contraction and future consumption [17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strongly bullish. Multiple factors affect the price, and the market focuses on this week's non - farm payrolls data [2][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the downstream demand has both positive and negative factors. The price may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee has increased, and the supply - demand situation may turn to surplus. The price may fluctuate weakly within a range [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. The supply is increasing, and the demand is also rising. There is a risk of correction, but if the inventory decreases, the price may rise [4][21]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by steel mills' production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the inventory is being depleted. The market expects an increase in shipments in the second half of the year. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [23]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, and the inventory is accumulating. The export situation is complex, and the market has a weak supply - demand balance. The short - term trend is a correction [24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are in a high - level oscillation. The high - level iron - water production boosts the demand, but factors such as inventory changes and price cut expectations put pressure on the prices [25]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meals**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meals oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean production outlook is optimistic, but the decrease in planting area and strong bio - fuel demand provide support. The domestic market is expected to oscillate narrowly [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of oils and fats oscillated at night. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly in August, and the export increased. The market is expected to continue to oscillate [27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is entering a stock - building stage, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [28]. - **Cotton**: The price of US cotton decreased. The domestic cotton supply is relatively tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish [29]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rebounded, rising 1.53%. The market is mainly gambling on the off - season freight rate space. The price may be weakly volatile in September and may be supported at the end of September and early October [30].

General Information - Report Date: September 2, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fats [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Futures Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2509 | 9310 | 9300 | 9378 | 9182 | 9330 | 20 | 0.21% | 255 | 2140 | -146 | | P2601 | 9348 | 9300 | 9392 | 9240 | 9384 | 36 | 0.39% | 669906 | 462237 | -16489 | | Y2509 | 8414 | 8414 | 8516 | 8350 | 8390 | -24 | -0.29% | 1039 | 3867 | -1702 | | Y2601 | 8358 | 8360 | 8360 | 8296 | 8348 | -10 | -0.12% | 285870 | 641642 | -8247 | | 609GO | 9968 | 9968 | 10030 | 9925 | 9930 | -38 | -0.38% | 644 | 2288 | -386 | | OI601 | 9782 | 9779 | 9848 | 9710 | 9801 | 19 | 0.19% | 285036 | 263549 | -52 | [7] Basis Quotes - Guangxi rapeseed oil traders' basis quotes: September: OI2601 + 40 (Guangxi), October: OI2601 + 80 (Guangxi) - East China refined tertiary rapeseed oil: August - September: OI2601 + 120, October - November: OI2601 + 170 - East China refined primary rapeseed oil: August - September: OI2601 + 130 - East China soybean oil basis price: First-grade soybean oil: September: Y2601 + 220; October - January: Y2601 + 280 - Dongguan 24-degree palm oil: Various factories' quotes range from 01 - 60 to 01 + 20 [7] Oil and Fats Analysis - Soybean oil: Short-term high inventory and abundant supply, but market concerns about long-term soybean supply and strong cost support limit its downside - Rapeseed oil: Domestic supply of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to decrease significantly due to tariff policies. Supply is sufficient by the end of the year, and the long-term situation depends on policies. Strong cost support makes the price likely to rise - Palm oil: The biggest variable in the oil and fats sector. Production in the producing regions may still increase in the third quarter, and export data is rising. The current futures price is unlikely to fall deeply, but the upside is also limited - Operation Suggestion: Roll long on single oil and fats contracts, and conduct a long rapeseed oil - short soybean oil arbitrage [8] 2. Industry News Indonesia - Despite increased production, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of June decreased by 13% month-on-month to 2.53 million tons due to rising exports - In June, Indonesia exported 3.61 million tons of palm oil, a month-on-month increase of 35.4% - June's crude palm oil production increased by 15.8% month-on-month to 4.82 million tons - In the first half of the year, palm oil production, including palm kernel oil, reached 27.89 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [9] Malaysia - From August 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 1.21% month-on-month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreasing by 3.26% month-on-month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.4% month-on-month [10] 3. Data Overview Palm Oil Export - From August 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 933,437 tons, a 36.4% increase compared to the same period in July - Exports to China were 81,000 tons, higher than 58,000 tons in the same period last month [18] Domestic Palm Oil Inventory - As of the end of the 35th week of 2025, the total domestic palm oil inventory was 558,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons from the previous week - The contract volume was 33,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous week [18]

Group 1: Macro Asset Tracking - The bond market shows narrow fluctuations with a slight increase, but the risk of further declines remains high after short-term stabilization [17] - The stock market is experiencing a "shrinking circle" phenomenon, with large-cap indices outperforming small-cap indices, indicating a decrease in market risk appetite [19] - The A-share market's long-term upward trend remains intact, supported by recent policy shifts towards increased fiscal spending targeting residents [19][6] Group 2: A-Share Market Insights - The A-share market saw a trading volume of 2.83 trillion, down nearly 170 billion from the previous trading day, with around 3,200 stocks declining [19] - The market is characterized by increased volatility, suggesting that buying on dips is a better strategy than chasing highs [19] - Recent policies indicate a shift from investment-driven growth to consumer-driven growth, which is expected to support economic recovery [19] Group 3: U.S. Market Overview - The U.S. stock market indices rose, with the Nasdaq up 0.53%, Dow Jones up 0.16%, and S&P 500 up 0.32%, driven by improved GDP and employment data [25] - The U.S. second-quarter GDP growth was revised up to 3.3%, with business investment growth significantly revised from 1.9% to 5.7% [25][40] - The dovish tone from the Federal Reserve Chairman at the Jackson Hole meeting opens the door for potential rate cuts, which may boost market risk appetite [25] Group 4: Currency Market Analysis - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1299, down 86 basis points from the previous close, indicating a potential rebound in the dollar [29] - The outlook for the dollar is expected to be weak in the short term, but the cost-effectiveness of shorting the dollar is considered low [30] Group 5: Commodity Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 0.16%, with construction materials and non-ferrous metals leading the gains, while oilseeds and ferroalloys lagged [34] - The current pricing of domestic commodities remains at historical lows, suggesting that shorting commodities lacks cost-effectiveness [34] Group 6: Important Policies and News - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to July, state-owned enterprises' total profits were 24,786.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [37] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to avoid disorderly competition in the development of "Artificial Intelligence+" [39]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various asset classes including macro - finance, stocks, precious metals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It points out that short - term macro upward drivers are marginally strengthening, with focus on domestic incremental stimulus policies, loose expectations, Sino - US trade negotiation progress, and implementation of domestic incremental policies. Different asset classes are expected to have different short - term trends, mainly presenting震荡 (oscillation) or震荡偏强 (oscillation with a slightly upward trend) patterns [2][3]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: The second - quarter GDP had a year - on - year growth rate of 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.1%. After the New York Fed President Williams hinted at a possible rate cut, market expectations for a Fed rate cut next month increased, the US dollar index was weak, and global risk appetite increased. - Domestic: China's economic data in July slowed down and was below expectations. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. With the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce for 90 days and increased US easing expectations, short - term external risks decreased, and domestic risk appetite increased. - Asset Performance: Stocks are expected to be short - term oscillatory and slightly stronger, with short - term cautious long positions; treasury bonds are expected to be high - level oscillatory in the short term, with cautious observation; commodities: black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals are short - term oscillatory, with cautious observation; precious metals are high - level and slightly stronger oscillatory in the short term, with cautious long positions [2]. Stocks - The domestic stock market fell significantly due to the drag of sectors such as clothing and home textiles, biomedicine, and liquor. - The short - term macro upward driver is marginally strengthening, with focus on Sino - US trade negotiation progress and implementation of domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose on Thursday. The Fed's independence concerns and the weakening US dollar supported the upward movement of precious metals. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased, and the second - quarter GDP was stronger than expected. The market is focused on the PCE data to be released on Friday. Gold has strong short - term support, but be wary of the Fed's changing attitude [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - Steel futures and spot prices rebounded slightly on Thursday, and trading volume increased slightly. The expectation of steel production cuts in the next two years has increased. - The fundamentals remain weak, with an increase in the inventory of five major steel products and a decline in the apparent consumption of some products. Supply is mixed, with an increase in rebar production and a slight decrease in hot - rolled coil production. There is a possibility of further production restrictions in the north in early September, and the steel market may continue to rebound [5]. Iron Ore - Iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded significantly on Thursday. Steel mills' profits are high, but due to production restrictions in the north in the next week, steel mills' procurement is cautious. - Global iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased this week. Port inventories decreased slightly on Monday. Iron ore prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices were flat, and silicon manganese prices rebounded slightly on Thursday. The demand for ferroalloys is okay as the production of five major steel products continues to increase. - The production of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia is stable, with some minor production fluctuations. There are new production capacity plans in the future, and the daily output may be affected by 500 - 800 tons. The prices of ferroalloys are expected to be range - bound in the short term [6][7]. Soda Ash - The soda ash main contract oscillated on Thursday. Supply increased due to the return of previous maintenance, and there is supply pressure with new capacity coming online. - Demand remained stable week - on - week, but overall demand support is weak. Profits decreased week - on - week. Soda ash is expected to be range - bound in the short term [7]. Glass - The glass main contract oscillated on Thursday. Supply remained stable, and demand is difficult to improve significantly. - Profits decreased as glass prices fell. With the support of real - estate news, glass is expected to be range - bound in the short term [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Due to concerns about US tariffs and the expected tightening of the Japanese central bank's monetary policy, and the weakening of domestic demand, the strong copper price is difficult to sustain [9]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices fell slightly on Thursday, and inventories continued to increase. The medium - term upward space for aluminum prices is limited, and it is expected to be oscillatory in the short term [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the cost of recycled aluminum plants is rising, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly stronger in the short term, but the upward space is limited [9]. Tin - The supply - side开工率 (operating rate) increased, and the mine supply is expected to be loose. The demand side is weak, but the price decline has stimulated downstream replenishment. Tin prices are expected to be oscillatory in the short term, with support from smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations, but restricted by high tariffs,复产 expectations (restoration of production expectations), and weak demand [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate main contract fell on Thursday. After the previous sentiment subsided, it is expected to be widely oscillatory, with short - term short positions and long - term long positions [11]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract fell on Thursday. With the oscillation of black metals and polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon main contract fell on Thursday. The production in August is approaching 130,000 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts is increasing. It is facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality. It is recommended to short on rebounds [12]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The possibility of more Russian oil supply entering the market in the short term has decreased, and oil prices rose slightly on Thursday. However, the market has limited risk premium digestion, and short - term oil prices are expected to be weakly oscillatory [14]. Asphalt - Due to limited oil price changes, the asphalt main price remained almost unchanged. The spot market has slightly improved, but inventory removal is limited. Asphalt is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [14]. PX - After the price increase due to Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance, PX supply is tight, and it is expected to be oscillatory in the short term, waiting for changes in PTA devices [14]. PTA - The PTA price declined, but there is some support from domestic and South Korean petrochemical capacity adjustments and the temporary shutdown of the Huizhou device. It is expected to be oscillatory in the short term, with attention to the downstream recovery space [15]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol prices continued to decline, and port inventories decreased slightly. It is expected to be narrowly oscillatory in the short term, with support from downstream start - up recovery, but supply pressure is still large [16]. Short - Fiber - Short - fiber prices fell slightly due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, and it is recommended to short on highs in the medium term [16]. Methanol - The restart of inland devices and concentrated arrivals have pressured prices, but there is some support from the reflux window and the planned restart of MTO devices. Methanol is expected to be oscillatory [16]. PP - The supply - side pressure is increasing, and demand is showing signs of recovery. The 09 contract is expected to be weakly oscillatory, and attention should be paid to the peak - season inventory situation of the 01 contract [16]. LLDPE - The supply - side pressure remains, and demand is showing a turning point. The 09 contract is expected to be weakly oscillatory, and attention should be paid to demand and inventory situation of the 01 contract [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The CBOT soybean price was supported by the continuous improvement of US new - season soybean exports. The export sales of the current market year decreased, while the next - year exports increased significantly. Pakistan is expected to sign a purchase agreement [19]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic oil mills' soybeans and soybean meal has eased, but the near - month/spot risk has not subsided. Rapeseed meal has an upward fluctuation basis due to low inventory and few long - term purchases [19]. Oils - Rapeseed oil port inventories are decreasing, and the supply of soybean oil is expected to strengthen. Palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle, and the market is expected to be oscillatory [20]. Corn - The national corn price is running weakly, but the futures price has entered a relatively low - valuation range, and the possibility of breaking through last year's range is small [20]. Hogs - Group farms continued to reduce weight in August, and the pig price did not rebound as expected at the end of August. The theoretical slaughter volume will increase in September, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic. Some local areas have started purchasing and storage [20][21].

Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term macro upward drive is marginally strengthening, with the market focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3]. - Different asset classes are expected to show short - term range - bound trends, and specific investment strategies vary according to different sectors. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: The attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook has raised concerns about central bank independence, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. - Domestic: China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. Policy stimulus has been strengthened, and the short - term external risk uncertainty has decreased while domestic easing expectations have increased, resulting in an overall increase in domestic risk appetite. - Asset Recommendations: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level, and cautious observation is advised; commodities in different sectors are generally expected to oscillate in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended [2]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as rare earth concepts, biomedicine, and small metals, the domestic stock market declined slightly. - With the strengthening of policy stimulus, the reduction of short - term external risk uncertainty, and the increase in domestic easing expectations, the short - term macro upward drive is marginally strengthening. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported in the short term due to increased concerns about independence, rising risk of stagflation, and strengthened rate - cut expectations. However, attention should be paid to the Fed's attitude changes, and the market focus is on the upcoming US PCE data [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures markets of steel continued to be weak. Demand was weak, inventory increased, and supply was expected to decline in the future. With strong cost support, a range - bound approach is recommended in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined. With strong northern production - restriction expectations, cautious procurement by steel mills, and increasing supply pressure, a range - bound approach is expected in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices were flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. Supply in some regions was increasing, but there were potential production - cut plans. A range - bound approach is recommended in the short term [7][8]. - **Soda Ash**: There is a situation of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor suppressing prices. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [9]. - **Glass**: Supply is stable, demand is difficult to increase significantly, and it is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term under the boost of real - estate news [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The impact of Trump's attempt to remove Cook on the copper market is expected to be small in the short term, and domestic demand is expected to weaken marginally [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: The price declined slightly. The fundamentals changed little, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term with limited upward space [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, production costs are rising, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term with limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: Supply is expected to be relatively loose in the long term, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: After the previous sentiment subsided, it is expected to oscillate in a wide range, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to oscillate in a range, considering the high - level oscillation of black metals and polysilicon [13]. - **Polysilicon**: It is facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about the Fed's independence and the potential impact of US tariffs on India's oil imports have affected oil prices. There is still some support for oil prices in the near term [16]. - **Asphalt**: Supported by anti - involution in the petrochemical industry and rising crude oil prices, but with limited inventory reduction, it is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the near term [16]. - **PX**: It is in a tight situation in the short term and is expected to oscillate while waiting for changes in PTA device operations [16]. - **PTA**: Driven by capacity adjustments and increased downstream demand, it is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillating pattern in the short term [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory has decreased slightly. Supported by downstream demand recovery, but facing supply pressure, short - term buying on dips should pay attention to crude oil cost fluctuations [18][19]. - **Short - fiber**: Driven by sector resonance, its price increased slightly. It is expected to follow the polyester sector and may be shorted on rallies in the medium term [19]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are showing marginal improvement, but the oversupply situation remains. It is expected to oscillate in price [19]. - **PP**: Supply pressure is increasing, but there is policy support. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should focus on peak - season inventory - building [19]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure remains, and demand shows signs of turning. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should focus on demand and inventory - building [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The selling pressure of US Treasuries has increased, and the weakening of the US dollar has provided some support to commodities. The expected Sino - US trade negotiations have boosted the export sales expectations of US soybeans [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic soybean and soybean meal in oil mills has eased. Rapeseed meal still has the basis for upward fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the development of Sino - Canadian trade relations [21]. - **Oils**: Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the supply is expected to shrink; soybean oil is expected to have a low - valuation price - increase market; palm oil is expected to enter an oscillating phase [21]. - **Corn**: The national corn price is running weakly. The futures price has entered a relatively low - valuation range, and there is a low possibility of breaking through the previous range [21]. - **Pigs**: The weight of pigs has declined, and the second - fattening market is cautious. The market's pessimistic sentiment about the fourth - quarter outlook has increased [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including macro - strategies, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. It evaluates market trends, influencing factors, and offers corresponding investment suggestions based on different market segments. Summary by Catalog 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - **News**: Trump's potential removal of Fed governors may affect the Fed's independence, and the US housing price growth in June 2023 was the slowest since 2023 [11][12]. - **Review**: Trump's actions pose a challenge to the Fed's independence, putting downward pressure on the US dollar index [13]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The US dollar index faces downward pressure [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - **News**: The US consumer confidence index in August fell slightly to 97.4, and the Fed responded to Trump's attempt to fire a governor [15][16]. - **Review**: If Trump successfully fires the governor and nominates a dovish official, market expectations of interest - rate cuts will rise, and US stocks may perform well [18]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Interest - rate cut trading continues to support market risk appetite, and US stocks are expected to fluctuate strongly [19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - **News**: The State Council promotes high - quality development of service trade, and China will implement the "Artificial Intelligence +" action [20][21]. - **Review**: The A - share market sentiment has cooled slightly, but there is still upward momentum from the perspective of sentiment and capital [21]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Hold long positions in stock index futures [22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - **News**: The 17th meeting of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee will be held from September 8th to 12th, and the central bank conducted a 405.8 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation [23][24]. - **Review**: The bond market is mainly in a volatile state, and it is difficult to have a sustainable upward trend without special circumstances [26]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Be cautious with unilateral long positions; consider using long bond positions to hedge potential stock price corrections [26]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - **News**: Malaysia's palm oil production decreased in August, the US may exempt tariffs on Indonesian palm oil, and Malaysia seeks tax exemption for palm oil raw materials [27][28]. - **Review**: The oil market is in a weak and volatile state, and the impact of production changes is not significant [29]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The oil market is in a volatile state, and it is recommended to buy on dips [30]. 2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - **News**: The price of metallurgical coke in Lvliang is strong, and some coking enterprises have proposed an 8th - round price increase [31]. - **Review**: The coking coal futures may adjust in the short term, but there is strong support below [32]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The futures price has short - term adjustment pressure, but strong support after adjustment [33]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - **News**: Pakistan initially bought 30,000 tons of sugar, India urged the sugar industry to reach a consensus on export quotas, and Brazil's sugar exports in August increased slightly [34][35][36]. - **Review**: Zhengzhou sugar futures fell due to factors such as approaching delivery and weak market sentiment [36]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 1 - month contract after a correction, with a target price of around 5,500 yuan/ton [37]. 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - **News**: The daily output of key steel enterprises in mid - August increased, and the national construction machinery start - up rate in July was 44.43% [38][39]. - **Review**: Steel prices continued to fluctuate downward, and the market sentiment was slightly weak [39]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices [40]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - **News**: Aonong Bio's net profit in the first half of 2025 was 361 million yuan [41]. - **Review**: Near - month pig futures have limited rebound space, and there is a safety margin for the reverse spread structure [41]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Hold a short - term volatile view on the single - side, and pay attention to reverse spread opportunities [41]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - **News**: The growth of red dates in Xinjiang is normal, and the futures price of the main contract is slightly up [42]. - **Review**: The supply and demand of red dates are weak, and there is uncertainty in production [43]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and focus on weather and research results [43]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - **News**: Corn starch continues to be weak in both production and sales areas [44]. - **Review**: The spot price of starch is weak, and the CS11 - C11 spread is under pressure [44]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to the opportunity of widening the spread [44]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - **News**: The growth of new - season corn in Henan is basically normal, with some local drought [45]. - **Review**: Corn futures fluctuate around 2,150 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to new - crop production [46]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Hold short positions and 11 - 3 reverse spreads, and pay attention to 11 - 1 reverse spreads if the spread strengthens [46]. 2.9 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - **News**: The price of steam coal in Beigang was stable on August 26 [47]. - **Review**: The seasonal pressure on coal prices is increasing, and prices are expected to be weak [48]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Coal prices are expected to remain seasonally weak [48]. 2.10 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - **News**: The scale of the air - conditioning market from January to July reached 172 billion yuan [49]. - **Review**: Iron ore prices are in a weak and volatile state, and the impact of short - term factors on iron ore is limited [49]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Iron ore prices are expected to continue weak and volatile with limited decline [49]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - **News**: Tibet Summit's metal production increased significantly in the first half of the year, and the US may add lead to the key minerals list [50][51]. - **Review**: Lead prices fluctuated upward, but there are concerns about supply and demand [51]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [53]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - **News**: Tibet Summit's metal production increased significantly in the first half of the year [54]. - **Review**: Zinc prices may fluctuate due to the influence of macro and fundamental factors [55]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading, and pay attention to mid - line positive spread opportunities [55]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - **News**: Tongwei sold 161,300 tons of polysilicon in the first half of the year, and there were new developments in photovoltaic project component procurement [56][57]. - **Review**: The price of polysilicon is expected to rise, but there are concerns about over - supply [58]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a bullish view on dips for single - side trading, and pay attention to the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity at around - 2,000 yuan/ton [59]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - **News**: The US may add industrial silicon to the key minerals list [60]. - **Review**: The fundamentals of industrial silicon are weakening, but the price may be affected by other factors [61]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to the production resumption of large factories and trade within the range of 8,200 - 9,500 yuan/ton [61][62]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - **News**: Galan plans to start production of a lithium project in Argentina in the first half of 2026 [63]. - **Review**: The short - term inventory reduction may support the price, but there is supply uncertainty [64]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips and positive spreads [64]. 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - **News**: Indonesia's sovereign wealth fund signed a framework agreement with GEM to develop a green nickel processing center [65]. - **Review**: Nickel prices may be affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand [66]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to short - term trading opportunities and mid - line short - selling opportunities [67]. 2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - **News**: The US may add copper to the key minerals list, and there are developments in copper mining projects [68][69][70]. - **Review**: Copper prices are in a high - level volatile state, and the short - term upward trend is not obvious [71]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a short - term long - on - dips strategy for single - side trading and a wait - and - see strategy for spreads [71]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - **News**: API crude oil and refined product inventories decreased [72]. - **Review**: Oil prices are in a range - bound state, waiting for new drivers [72]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Maintain range - bound trading and wait for new drivers [73]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - **News**: The closing price of CEA on August 26 was 69.69 yuan/ton [73]. - **Review**: The carbon market price is in a narrow - range volatile state [73]. - **Investment Suggestion**: CEA prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [74]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - **News**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong was stable on August 26 [75]. - **Review**: The price of caustic soda is expected to remain high, but the upward space is limited [77]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Be cautious when chasing high prices [77]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - **News**: The price of imported wood pulp showed mixed trends [78]. - **Review**: The fundamentals of pulp are weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate [78]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The pulp market is expected to fluctuate [79]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - **News**: The price of PVC powder decreased slightly [80]. - **Review**: The fundamentals of PVC are weak, but the price is expected to fluctuate [80]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The PVC market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [80]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - **News**: The export price of bottle chips was partially raised [81]. - **Review**: The inventory of bottle chips is decreasing, but attention should be paid to new capacity [83]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to the impact of new capacity on processing fees [83]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - **News**: A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China will be under maintenance [84]. - **Review**: The short - term supply - demand pattern of PTA has improved, and the price is expected to be strong [84]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a short - term long - on - dips strategy [85]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - **News**: A 500,000 - ton/year styrene plant in Shandong is under maintenance [86]. - **Review**: The situation of styrene in September has improved marginally, but there may be pressure in the fourth quarter [87]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to policy variables at home and abroad [87]. 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - **News**: The production of a 5 - million - ton/year soda ash plant in Inner Mongolia is reduced [88]. - **Review**: The price of soda ash is weak, and the market sentiment is not strong [88]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [88]. 2.27 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - **News**: The price of float glass in Shahe was stable on August 26 [89]. - **Review**: The glass market is in a volatile state, and the demand improvement is limited [89]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Be cautious with single - side trading and focus on spread trading [90]. 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - **News**: Premier Alliance adjusted its shipping routes [91]. - **Review**: The spot freight rate is weak, and the supply - demand situation is not optimistic [92]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The 10 - month contract will test the support level of 1,300 yuan/FEU [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the upward momentum of the oil market is insufficient, and prices may correct, but the correction range is expected to be limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding, while those without positions can wait for the correction to go long at low prices. YP01 may rebound in the short - term, and holders of YP narrowing positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. P15 can be considered to be expanded after the correction. Options are recommended to be on the sidelines [5][6][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of soybean oil 2601 is 8456 with a decline of 32. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8656, 8796, and 8586 respectively, and the basis and their changes vary. The closing price of palm oil 2601 is 9500 with a decline of 82, and the spot prices and basis in different regions also have corresponding values and changes. The closing price of rapeseed oil 2601 is 9821 with a decline of 70, and the spot prices and basis in different regions are presented as well [3] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread is 300 with a decline of 8; for palm oil, it is 262 with a decline of 30; for rapeseed oil, it is 167 with a decline of 7 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 01 - contract Y - P spread is - 1044 with an increase of 50, the OI - Y spread is 1365 with a decline of 38, the OI - P spread is 321 with an increase of 12, and the oil - meal ratio is 2.74 with an increase of 0.02 [3] - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil's Malaysian & Indonesian盘面利润 is - 178, and the FOB price of Rotterdam's rapeseed oil is 1075 with a盘面利润 of - 751 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 34th week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory is 109.4 tons (compared with 118.6 tons last week and 114.3 tons last year), the palm oil inventory is 58.2 tons (compared with 61.7 tons last week and 59.4 tons last year), and the rapeseed oil inventory is 64.6 tons (compared with 66.0 tons last week and 42.2 tons last year) [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 1.21% month - on - month [5] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of August 22, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 58.21 tons, a decrease of 3.52 tons (5.70%) from last week, at a slightly above - average level in the same period of history. The origin's quotation decreased, the import profit inversion narrowed, and there were rumors of 2 far - month vessel purchases. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable with a slight increase [5] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 227 tons, and the operating rate was 63.81%, a decrease from the previous week. As of August 22, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory is 118.6 tons, an increase of 4.33 tons (3.79%) from last week, slightly lower than the same period in history but higher than the three - year average for the same period. The basis was stable [6] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 4.48 tons, and the operating rate was 11.94%, a decrease from the previous week. As of August 15, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 66 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons from last week, still at a high level in the same period of history, but the inventory is continuously decreasing. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil increased to around 1030 US dollars, and the import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil widened to around - 600. There were rumors of near - month rapeseed wash sales. The spot market was sluggish, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight decrease [6][9] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short - term, expect the oil prices to correct due to insufficient upward momentum, but the correction range is limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding, while those without positions can wait for the correction to go long at low prices [11] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: YP01 may rebound in the short - term, and holders of YP narrowing positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding; P15 can be considered to be expanded after the correction [11] - **Options Strategy**: On the sidelines [12] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - There are 8 figures including the spot basis of East - China first - grade soybean oil, South - China 24 - degree palm oil, East - China third - grade rapeseed oil, and various monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads from 2016 - 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [15][18]