1. Overall Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an industry - wide investment rating. 2. Core Views Steel - The black futures market weakened recently. In the short - term, the steel inventory pressure is not significant, but the off - season demand has a low acceptance of high prices. The main contract is approaching the roll - over period, and the price of the October contract is expected to fluctuate at high levels. It was previously recommended to buy on dips, and existing long positions can be held. However, due to limited terminal demand, chasing long positions should be done with caution [1]. Iron Ore - The 2509 iron ore contract showed a fluctuating and slightly stronger trend last week. In the future, the average daily hot metal production in August will remain high but is expected to slightly decline to around 2.36 million tons per day. Steel prices may rise due to production restrictions, which will reduce iron ore demand but provide valuation support. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal 01 and short on iron ore 01 [4]. Coke - The coke futures rebounded from the bottom last week, and the price fluctuated sharply. The fifth round of price increase has been implemented, and there may be further increases. Supply is difficult to increase due to some enterprises' losses, while demand from blast furnaces provides support. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 coke contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [6]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures rebounded from the bottom last week, and the spot market is generally stable and slightly stronger. The supply is tight, and the demand for replenishment from downstream is continuous. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 coking coal contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products decreased slightly. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3370 yuan/ton to 3360 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of hot - rolled coil declined from 3460 yuan/ton to 3449 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of some steel - making processes increased, such as the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar rising by 6 yuan/ton to 3175 yuan/ton. The profits of most regions and varieties increased, like the East China hot - rolled coil profit rising by 5 yuan/ton to 248 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The average daily hot metal production decreased slightly by 0.2 tons to 240.5 tons, a decline of 0.1%. The production of five major steel products increased by 1.8 tons to 869.2 tons, a rise of 0.2%. The rebar production increased significantly by 10.1 tons to 221.2 tons, a growth of 4.8%, while the hot - rolled coil production decreased by 7.9 tons to 314.9 tons, a decline of 2.4% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 23.5 tons to 1375.4 tons, a rise of 1.7%. The rebar inventory rose by 10.4 tons to 556.7 tons, a growth of 1.9%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.7 tons to 356.6 tons, a rise of 2.5% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The average daily building materials trading volume decreased by 0.9 tons to 9.7 tons, a decline of 8.7%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 6.3 tons to 845.7 tons, a drop of 0.7%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 7.4 tons to 210.8 tons, a growth of 3.6%, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased by 13.8 tons to 306.2 tons, a decline of 4.3% [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The prices of most iron ore varieties decreased slightly. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder dropped from 819.5 yuan/ton to 816.2 yuan/ton, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port declined from 773.0 yuan/ton to 770.0 yuan/ton [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 267.3 tons to 2507.8 tons, a rise of 11.9%, while the global shipment volume decreased by 139.1 tons to 3061.8 tons, a decline of 4.3%. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 tons to 10594.8 tons, a growth of 8.0% [4]. Demand - The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4 tons to 240.3 tons, a decline of 0.2%. The 45 - port average daily desulfurization volume increased by 19.1 tons to 321.9 tons, a rise of 6.3%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 220.9 tons to 7190.5 tons, a decline of 3.0%, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 336.1 tons to 8318.4 tons, a decline of 3.9% [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 28.7 tons to 13712.27 tons, a decline of 0.2%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 tons to 9013.3 tons, a rise of 0.0%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 days to 20.0 days, a decline of 4.8% [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of most coke varieties were stable or slightly decreased. For example, the 09 contract price of coke decreased by 14 yuan/ton to 1668 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1734 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The average daily coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 tons to 65.1 tons, a rise of 0.4%, while the average daily production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 tons to 46.8 tons, a decline of 0.44% [6]. Demand - The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4 tons to 240.3 tons, a decline of 0.2% [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 8.3 tons to 907.2 tons, a decline of 0.9%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 3.9 tons to 69.7 tons, a decline of 5.34%, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 7.4 tons to 619.3 tons [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of most coking coal varieties were stable or slightly increased. For example, the price of Mongolian coking coal warehouse - receipt increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1139 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract price of coking coal decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 1070 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The raw coal production of sample coal mines decreased by 9.7 tons to 859.0 tons, a decline of 1.1%, and the clean coal production decreased by 5.1 tons to 439.0 tons, a decline of 1.1% [6]. Demand - The demand for coking coal is supported by the stable coking plant operation and the high - level but slightly declining hot metal production [6]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 6.8 tons to 112.0 tons, a decline of 5.7%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.8 tons to 987.9 tons, a decline of 0.5%, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.9 tons to 808.7 tons, a rise of 0.6% [6].

Group 1: 惠泉啤酒 - Company achieved a net profit of 39.57 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.52% [1] - Revenue for the same period was 351 million yuan, showing a growth of 1.03% year-on-year [1] - Company specializes in the production and sale of beer, established in February 1997 [1] Group 2: 格尔软件 - Company plans to raise no more than 283 million yuan through a simplified procedure for issuing A-shares [1] - The funds will be used for quantum password technology industrialization, trusted data space platform development, and to supplement working capital [1] - Established in March 1998, the company focuses on digital trust and data security products [1] Group 3: 银轮股份 - Certain directors and executives plan to reduce their holdings by up to 964,000 shares, accounting for 0.1158% of the total share capital [1] - The reduction is due to personal funding needs [1] - Company specializes in heat exchange products and automotive air conditioning, established in March 1999 [2] Group 4: 共创草坪 - Controlling shareholder's related parties plan to reduce their holdings by up to 0.8% of the company's shares [3] - The reduction will occur through centralized bidding and block trading [3] - Company focuses on the research, production, and sale of artificial turf, established in January 2004 [3] Group 5: ST纳川 - Senior management plans to reduce their holdings by up to 27,200 shares, representing 0.0026% of the total share capital [4] - The reduction is due to personal funding needs [4] - Company specializes in the research, manufacturing, and sales of water supply and drainage pipes, established in June 2003 [4] Group 6: 东芯股份 - Company clarified that its investment in Shanghai Lisan's chip products is not intended for large model computing clusters [6] - The products are mainly for personal computers, professional design, cloud gaming, and other applications [6] - Established in November 2014, the company focuses on independent research, design, and sales of small-capacity storage chips [6] Group 7: 南卫股份 - Company and its controlling shareholder received an administrative penalty notice from Jiangsu Securities Regulatory Bureau for insider trading [6] - The financial director and the controlling shareholder face fines and confiscation of illegal gains [6] - Established in July 1990, the company specializes in medical adhesive products and protective supplies [7] Group 8: 兰花科创 - Company plans to acquire 62% of Shandong Jiaxiang Yilong Port Co., Ltd. for 149 million yuan [8] - This acquisition aims to enhance the company's presence in inland shipping and logistics [8] - Established in December 1998, the company focuses on the production and sale of coal, fertilizers, and building materials [9] Group 9: 伟隆股份 - Controlling shareholder's related party plans to reduce holdings by up to 1.89 million shares, accounting for 0.7664% of the total share capital [10] - The reduction will occur through centralized bidding or block trading [10] - Established in June 1995, the company specializes in the production and sales of valves and related components [10] Group 10: 埃夫特 - Company's subsidiary received a government subsidy of 50 million yuan for a project related to intelligent robots [11] - The subsidy is pending receipt [11] - Established in August 2007, the company focuses on the research, production, and sales of industrial robots [11] Group 11: 华测导航 - Company reported a net profit of 32.6 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 29.94% [13] - Revenue for the same period was 1.833 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 23.54% year-on-year [13] - Established in September 2003, the company specializes in high-precision navigation and positioning technologies [13] Group 12: 德生科技 - Company directors plan to reduce their holdings by up to 0.025% of the total share capital [14] - The reduction is due to personal funding needs [14] - Established in August 1999, the company focuses on the production and sales of social security cards and related services [15] Group 13: 百邦科技 - Company director plans to reduce holdings by up to 0.19% of the total share capital [16] - The reduction is due to personal funding needs [16] - Established in November 2007, the company specializes in mobile phone after-sales services [17] Group 14: 中集车辆 - Shareholders plan to reduce holdings by up to 0.69% of the total share capital [18] - The reduction will occur through centralized bidding and block trading [18] - Established in August 1996, the company focuses on the production and sales of semi-trailers and specialized vehicles [18] Group 15: 新时达 - Company’s application for a private placement was accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [19] - The application is subject to further review and approval by the regulatory authorities [19] - Established in March 1995, the company specializes in intelligent manufacturing and industrial robotics [19] Group 16: 隆扬电子 - Company plans to reduce up to 592,400 repurchased shares, accounting for 0.21% of the total share capital [20] - The reduction will occur through centralized bidding [20] - Established in March 2000, the company focuses on the research, production, and sales of electromagnetic shielding materials [20] Group 17: 华熙生物 - Controlling shareholder plans to increase holdings by 200 to 300 million yuan [21] - The increase will occur within six months at a price not exceeding 70 yuan per share [21] - Established in January 2000, the company specializes in the research, production, and sales of hyaluronic acid and related medical materials [21] Group 18: 天域生物 - Company reported sales revenue of 21.03 million yuan from pig sales in July, a year-on-year decrease of 37.23% [22] - Cumulative sales from January to July reached 333 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.35% [22] - Established in June 2000, the company focuses on ecological agriculture and livestock farming [22] Group 19: 城地香江 - Subsidiary signed a significant data center hosting contract with an internet company, with an estimated first phase contract value of up to 1.811 billion yuan [23] - The second phase is expected to be valued at up to 2.716 billion yuan, with details yet to be specified [23] - Established in April 1997, the company specializes in IDC investment and operations [23]

黑色建材日报 2025-08-08 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3231 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 3 元/吨（-0.09%）。当日注册仓单 93491 吨, 环 比增加 4235 吨。主力合约持仓量为 162.8167 万手，环比减少 24402 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3320 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3360 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3440 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 11 元/吨（-0.31%）。 当日注册仓单 70915 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 142.8587 万手，环比减少 31588 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3470 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability, with a recommendation to wait and see [1] - Coke: ★☆★, implying a certain bullish trend [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★, suggesting a certain bullish trend [1] Core Views - The overall steel market has complex supply - demand relationships. With the "anti - involution" influencing the trading floor, the market sentiment is cautious after sharp fluctuations [2] - Iron ore is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term due to factors such as supply recovery, stable demand, and macro uncertainties [2] - Coke is expected to rise in the short term, with its price being significantly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations [3] - Coking coal is likely to see continued destocking in the short term, with high volatility and limited downside space, and caution is advised when chasing up [5] - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon prices are affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the pressure near previous highs [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread steel: This week, apparent demand and production increased, and inventory continued to accumulate. The overall market sentiment is cautious after sharp fluctuations, and the trading floor is mainly influenced by the "anti - involution" [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Demand dropped significantly, production declined, and inventory continued to accumulate. The overall demand in the downstream industries is weak, and the trading floor is affected by the overall commodity market trend [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments are expected to increase seasonally in August, domestic arrivals have increased month - on - month, and port inventories have stabilized with no obvious pressure to accumulate in the short term [2] - Demand: Terminal demand is weak due to weather, but steel mills have insufficient motivation to cut production actively, and the demand for iron ore replenishment still exists. Future policy - driven production cuts need to be monitored [2] - Macro: There are still uncertainties in overseas trade, and the bullish sentiment from domestic "anti - involution" has cooled down. The short - term trend is expected to be high - level consolidation [2] Coke - Supply: The sixth round of price increase is pending, production has slightly decreased, and overall inventory has continued to decline slightly [3] - Demand: Downstream molten iron production remains high during the off - season, and traders have good purchasing intentions [3] - Market: The price is significantly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and it is expected to rise in the short term with high volatility [3] Coking Coal - Supply: Production has slightly increased, the spot auction market has improved, and overall inventory has decreased month - on - month, with production - end inventory dropping significantly [5] - Demand: Downstream molten iron production remains high during the off - season [5] - Market: The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, with high volatility and limited downside space in the short term. Caution is needed when chasing up [5] Silicon Manganese - Supply: Weekly production has been increasing, but the rate is lower than expected. Manganese ore prices have slightly increased this week, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year [6] - Demand: Molten iron production remains above 240, and the demand is relatively high. In July, supply exceeded demand, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decline [6] - Market: The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the pressure near previous highs [6] Ferrosilicon - Supply: Supply has slightly increased, and the market trading volume is average, with on - balance - sheet inventory slightly increasing [7] - Demand: Molten iron production has slightly decreased but remains above 240. Export demand is around 30,000 tons, and the secondary demand has slightly declined. Overall demand is acceptable [7] - Market: The price follows the trend of silicon manganese and is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations. Attention should be paid to the pressure near previous highs [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

Market Review - Global equity markets experienced a general adjustment, with Hong Kong, France, Germany, and the US stock markets showing significant declines. A-shares, after five consecutive weeks of gains, faced a correction, with major indices generally declining. In terms of sectors, A-share CPO and innovative pharmaceuticals led the gains, while cyclical products like coal and non-ferrous metals saw a pullback. The domestic commodity market cooled down due to risk warnings from the three major futures exchanges and position limits on certain products, leading to sharp declines in previously strong commodities like coking coal, glass, and polysilicon. On the international front, Trump's announcement on July 30 regarding copper tariffs did not impose restrictions on copper raw materials, resulting in a significant drop in COMEX copper prices. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index plummeted after the release of non-farm payroll data on Friday, with market expectations for a rate cut in September significantly increasing [1][2][3]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the current market correction is temporary, and the slow bull market trend remains unchanged. Following the July Politburo meeting and the new round of China-US economic and trade talks, the market's speculation on incremental policies has cooled down, and after five weeks of consecutive gains, the index requires a phase of adjustment. Looking ahead, the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut has reignited, and domestic macro and micro liquidity remains relatively ample, which is conducive to the continuation of the slow bull trend in A-shares. Since the "623" market, A-shares have shown clear characteristics of "rotating upward and low-level replenishment," with better sustainability of the profit-making effect. Additionally, the sources of incremental capital in the market are diverse, with increased participation from public and private equity institutions, and the positive feedback effect of "residents allocating funds into the market and the slow rise of the stock market" is expected to strengthen [2][3]. Sector Allocation - The report recommends focusing on the following areas for sector allocation: 1) New technologies and growth directions such as AI computing power, robotics, and solid-state batteries; 2) Reallocation opportunities in dividend sectors after corrections, such as certain undervalued state-owned enterprises. Thematic areas of interest include self-controllable technologies, military industry, low-altitude economy, and marine technology [2][3].

Group 1 - The global market is experiencing significant turbulence, with a sharp decline in European and American stock markets, reminiscent of the global market crash in April. However, the current situation is more complex than before [1][3] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July was shocking, with only 70,000 jobs added and previous months' data revised down by 250,000, leading to a 90% error margin. This unexpected data has increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September to 75% [1][3] - Northbound capital saw a net purchase of 68 billion yuan in July, marking a new high for the year, while the margin financing balance exceeded 1.94 trillion yuan, indicating that new capital is quietly positioning itself [1][3] Group 2 - The market at the 3600-point level has become a battleground for bulls and bears, with significant trading volume masking the reality of capital rotation among existing funds. The rapid sector rotation is evident, with broker stocks surging one day and funds quickly shifting to semiconductors [3][5] - Current policies differ from those in 2015, focusing on precise measures rather than broad liquidity injections. The central government's crackdown on low-price competition has included new energy sectors in supply-side reforms [3][5] - Policy benefits are reflected in the stock market, with steel and coal stocks seeing over 20% gains in two months, as leading companies previously affected by competition are now experiencing profit and valuation recovery [3][5] Group 3 - Investment opportunities are identified along three main lines: 1. Technology growth stocks, with significant order increases in AI and semiconductor sectors [5] 2. Cyclical stocks benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, such as rising aluminum prices and improved performance from companies like Zijin Mining and China Shenhua [5] 3. Consumer sector expectations, with a shift towards high-growth segments like functional beverages and pet food, while traditional high-end liquor sales remain flat [5] Group 4 - Risks are present, particularly during the earnings season, with some companies facing severe declines due to performance issues. For instance, a solid-state battery concept stock plummeted 40% in a week due to low production yield [7] - Foreign capital has been more aggressive than expected, with significant investments in companies like CATL and upgrades in ratings from major financial institutions [7] - The market is undergoing a transformation, with new regulations limiting large-scale sell-offs and a decrease in IPO approval rates, indicating a gradual resolution of liquidity risks [7][8] Group 5 - The most dangerous speculation involves high-leverage investments in thematic stocks, with some companies trading at unsustainable price-to-earnings ratios. A focus on "three low assets" (low valuation, low attention, low chip pressure) is recommended for safer investments [8] - The market's direction will depend on two catalysts: the financial opening details to be released at the Lujiazui Forum on August 18 and the potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which could trigger a global risk-on mode [8] - The market sentiment is shifting, as evidenced by record high holdings in call options for the 50ETF and a significant short-covering ratio among hedge funds [8]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, waiting for the strength of peak - season demand. Considering the limited spot inventory, it is advisable to operate on the low side during price corrections. Pay attention to 3230 yuan for rebar and 3380 yuan for hot - rolled coils [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 40 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 60 yuan/ton respectively; hot - rolled coil spot prices in these regions all dropped by 60 yuan/ton. Futures prices also decreased significantly, with the rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts falling by 107 yuan, 108 yuan, and 110 yuan respectively, and the hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts falling by 103 yuan, 110 yuan, and 109 yuan respectively [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 80 yuan to 3080 yuan, while the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China increased by 48 yuan, and the profit of rebar in South China increased by 38 yuan [1] - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a rise of 1.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.2 to 867.0, a decline of 0.1%. Rebar output increased by 2.9 to 212.0, a rise of 1.4%, with converter output increasing by 5.4 to 188.0 (a 2.9% increase) and electric - furnace output decreasing by 2.5 to 23.9 (a 9.3% decrease). Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 3.6 to 317.5, a decline of 1.1% [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.2 to 1336.5, a decline of 0.1%. Rebar inventory decreased by 4.6 to 538.6, a decline of 0.9%, while hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.3 to 345.2, a rise of 0.7% [1] - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.6 to 10.1, a decline of 13.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.0 to 868.1, a decline of 0.2%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 10.4 to 216.6, a rise of 5.0%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.6 to 315.2, a decline of 2.6% [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - In the future, pig iron output in July will remain high, with an average expected to stay around 2.4 million tons per day. Improving steel mill profits will support raw materials, but there is a seesaw effect between coking coal, coke, and iron ore. Unilateral trading is advised to be cautiously long, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties changed. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines increased by 4.4 to 793.4, a rise of 0.6%, while the warehouse receipt cost of PB fines decreased by 2.2 to 818.4, a decline of 0.3%. The 09 - contract basis of various iron ore varieties generally increased, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 5.5 to - 43.5, a rise of 11.2%, while the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4.5 to 23.0, a decline of 16.4% [3] - **Supply**: The 45 - port weekly arrival volume decreased by 130.7 to 2240.5, a decline of 5.5%. The global weekly shipping volume increased by 91.8 to 3200.9, a rise of 3.0%. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8, a rise of 8.0% [3] - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.2 to 242.2, a decline of 0.1%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports decreased by 7.6 to 315.2, a decline of 2.4%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5, a decline of 3.0%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4, a decline of 3.9% [3] - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 104.2 to 13686.23, a decline of 0.8%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 63.1 to 8885.2, a rise of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 1.0 to 21.0, a rise of 5.0% [3] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - **Coke**: Speculative trading is advised to be cautiously long, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on coke and short on iron ore, while avoiding exchange intervention risks. - **Coking Coal**: Speculative trading is advised to be cautiously long, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore, also avoiding exchange intervention risks [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1296 yuan/ton, while the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1420 yuan/ton. The coke 09 and 01 contracts increased by 44 yuan and 50 yuan respectively. The coking profit calculated by the Steel Union decreased by 11 yuan/week [4] - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1260 yuan/ton, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1155 yuan/ton. The coking coal 09 contract decreased by 4 yuan, and the 01 contract increased by 18 yuan. The sample coal mine profit increased by 27 yuan/week, a rise of 8.3% [4] - **Supply**: The weekly average daily output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.4 to 64.6, a rise of 0.6%, and the weekly average daily output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 47.2, a rise of 0.1%. The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased, with raw coal output decreasing by 4.3 to 862.3, a decline of 0.5%, and clean coal output decreasing by 1.5 to 441.0, a decline of 0.3% [4] - **Demand**: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.2 to 242.2, a decline of 0.1%. The demand for coke is mainly reflected in the relatively high pig iron output, and the demand for coking coal is also supported by the slightly increased coking plant operation rate [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 7.4 to 918.2, a decline of 0.8%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 7.4 to 80.1, a decline of 8.5%, while the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 1.0 to 640.0, a rise of 0.2%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 25.5 to 132.6, a decline of 16.1%, and the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 56.3 to 985.4, a rise of 6.1% [4] - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.6 to - 5.5, a rise of 10.2% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities on July 31, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity's trend is affected by factors such as macro - economic policies, geopolitical events, and supply - demand relationships [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: FOMC's decline releases hawkish expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][5][10] - **Silver**: Experiences a high - level decline, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][5][10] Base Metals - **Copper**: The implementation of US copper import tariffs puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12][14] - **Zinc**: Shows a narrow - range oscillation, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][15][17] - **Lead**: An increase in inventory puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18][19] - **Tin**: Ranges within an interval, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][21][25] - **Aluminum**: Experiences a slight oscillation; Alumina's price weakens; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Aluminum's trend strength is 0, alumina's is - 1, and casting aluminum alloy's is 0 [2][27][29] - **Nickel**: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, and fundamentals limit the elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][34] - **Stainless Steel**: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][34] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Has a wide - range oscillation, and the mine - end disturbance has not materialized, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][35][37] - **Industrial Silicon**: Sentiment weakens, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38][40] - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38][40] Energy - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, shows a relatively strong oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][41] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The sentiment is realized, with a wide - range oscillation. Both have a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55] - **Power Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, and the price stabilizes with an oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][57][60] - **Fuel Oil**: The upward trend continues, and it remains strong in the short - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's futures price shows a relatively strong oscillation, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rise [2][4][52] Chemicals - **PTA**: Supported by cost, with a positive spread in monthly contracts [2] - **MEG**: The unilateral trend remains weak, with a reverse spread in monthly contracts [2] - **Rubber**: Oscillates [2][32] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Weak in the short - term, but the downside space narrows [2][34] - **Asphalt**: Follows the strong upward trend of crude oil with small - step increases [2][36] - **LLDPE**: The trend still faces pressure [2][38] - **PP**: The spot price oscillates with light trading volume [2][39] - **Caustic Soda**: Attention should be paid to delivery pressure [2][40] - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates weakly [2][41] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet remains stable [2][43] - **Methanol**: Oscillates under pressure [2][44] - **Urea**: The pressure gradually increases [2][46] - **Styrene**: Profits are compressed [2][48] - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [4][49] - **PVC**: Weakly oscillates in the short - term [4][50] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Supported in the short - term by the positive sentiment of crude oil and macro - economy [4][59] - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillates at a high level, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade progress [4][59] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans close lower, limiting the rebound of domestic soybean meal [4][61] - **Soybean**: Oscillates weakly [4][61] - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [4][63] - **Sugar**: Oscillates within an interval [4][65] - **Cotton**: The sentiment cools down, and Zhengzhou cotton futures decline [4][66] - **Eggs**: The spot price weakens [4][68] - **Hogs**: Attention should be paid to whether the early - month spot expectations can be realized [4][69] - **Peanuts**: The old crop has support at the bottom [4][70] Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Hold 10 short positions [4][53] - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip**: Oscillate in the short - term [4][56] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillates at a low level with limited upward momentum [4][57] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillates relatively strongly [4][58] - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly [2][61]