Group 1: Report Overall Information - The report is the Black Building Materials Daily on August 15, 2025, covering various black building materials such as steel, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, industrial silicon, polysilicon, glass, and soda ash [1] Group 2: Steel Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3189 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-1.02%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 109,055 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2382 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.636544 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 16,049 lots [2] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3432 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.55%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 78,386 tons, with no month - on - month change. The position of the main contract was 1.291831 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 62,005 lots [2] Spot Market - The aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3320 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40 yuan/ton [2] - The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [2] Market Analysis - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished products showed a weak and volatile trend. This week, the export volume declined slightly, and the overall export remained weak [3] - In terms of fundamentals, the demand for rebar decreased significantly this week, production was basically the same as last week, and the inventory accumulation rate increased. For hot - rolled coils, demand rebounded significantly, production was basically the same as last week, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down. Currently, the inventories of both rebar and hot - rolled coils are on the rise marginally, steel mills' profit levels are good, and production remains high, but the demand side's ability to absorb is obviously insufficient [3] - With the Politburo meeting concluded and the "anti - involution" sentiment gradually cooling down, market sentiment has become more rational, and the futures price trend has started to weaken. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may not be able to maintain the current level, and the futures price may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3] Group 3: Iron Ore Futures Market - Yesterday, the main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 775.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.52% (-20.00), and the position changed by - 462 lots to 452,000 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 907,500 lots [5] Spot Market - The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 771 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.12 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.39% [5] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, the latest overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both decreased. On the shipment side, shipments from Australia continued to decline month - on - month due to mine maintenance, shipments from Brazil increased month - on - month, and shipments from non - mainstream countries decreased slightly month - on - month [6] - In terms of demand, the latest daily average pig iron output according to Steel Union data was 2.4066 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.34 million tons, mainly due to the increase in the utilization rate of the production capacity of previously restarted blast furnaces [6] - In terms of inventory, port inventories increased slightly, and steel mills' imported ore inventories increased significantly. Terminal data showed that the apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to weaken this week, and the decline in rebar consumption data was obvious [6] - From a fundamental perspective, the current supply side is in the traditional shipment off - season for overseas mines, and the pressure is not significant. The profitability rate of steel mills has started to decline after raw material prices reached a relatively high level. Due to the slight weakening of terminal demand, the short - term upward increase in pig iron may be limited [6] Group 4: Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Futures Market - On August 14, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) fluctuated weakly, closing down 0.40% at 6050 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, with a basis of 90 yuan/ton [8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) continued to weaken, closing down 0.86% at 5744 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5900 yuan/ton, with a basis of 156 yuan/ton [8] Market Analysis - From a daily - line perspective, the futures price of manganese silicon is still above the short - term rebound trend line since early June. It is recommended that investment positions remain on the sidelines, while hedging positions can still participate at the right time [9] - For ferrosilicon, the futures price is also above the short - term rebound trend line since early June. Similar to manganese silicon, investment positions are advised to wait and see, and hedging positions can participate as appropriate [9] - Since the Central Financial and Economic Commission's Sixth Meeting on July 1, the "anti - involution" trading has affected the market. As the sentiment of Supply - side 2.0 cools down, the market is squeezing out the over - valued part, driving prices down. Currently, sentiment still has a significant impact on the futures price [10] - In the short - term, it is not recommended that speculative funds participate excessively, and it is better to wait and see. However, hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [10] - Fundamentally, the over - supplied industrial pattern of manganese silicon has not changed due to "anti - involution." For ferrosilicon, there has been no obvious change, and it is expected that in the future, there will be a marginal weakening of demand for manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, or the entire black sector [11] Group 5: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Yesterday, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8675 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.87% (+75). The weighted contract position changed by - 14,051 lots to 535,123 lots [13] - In the spot market, the price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change, and the basis of the main contract was 525 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change, and the basis of the main contract was 275 yuan/ton [13] - The futures price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand have not fundamentally changed. In August, the operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to increase, and downstream demand can provide some support, but new inventory pressure may occur [14] Polysilicon - Yesterday, the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 50,430 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.68% (-860). The weighted contract position changed by - 4414 lots to 310,109 lots [15] - In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to SMM was 44.5 yuan/kg, with no month - on - month change; the average price of N - type dense material was 46 yuan/kg, with no month - on - month change; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 47 yuan/kg, with no month - on - month change, and the basis of the main contract was - 3430 yuan/ton [15] - In July, "anti - involution" and the expectation of a polysilicon industry capacity integration plan drove prices up rapidly. In August, polysilicon is expected to increase production, and downstream silicon wafer production has increased to some extent, but silicon materials are likely to accumulate inventory. The price of downstream distributed components has increased and then回调, and whether the price increase chain in the industry can be smoothly transmitted to the end - user remains to be seen [16] Group 6: Glass and Soda Ash Glass - On Thursday, the spot price in Shahe was 1164 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price in Central China was 1120 yuan, also unchanged from the previous day. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 1.579 million weight boxes (+2.55%), and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period [18] - After the Politburo meeting, market sentiment cooled down, and glass prices回调 significantly. Currently, the market sentiment has basically been digested. Glass production continues to increase, inventory pressure has increased, and downstream real - estate demand data has not improved significantly [18] - In the short term, glass is expected to fluctuate, and its valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long term, glass prices will fluctuate with macro sentiment. If there are substantial policies in the real - estate sector, futures prices may continue to rise; otherwise, supply - side contraction is needed for significant price increases [18] Soda Ash - The spot price was 1280 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 17,600 tons (0.94%) from Monday. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 760,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,700 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.1338 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1100 tons [19] - The downstream float glass operating rate increased slightly, and the photovoltaic glass operating rate decreased and then stabilized. Downstream buyers are waiting and seeing, and procurement enthusiasm has slowed down. Soda ash production facilities are operating stably, and inventory pressure has increased, but heavy - soda ash inventory has decreased slightly [19] - In the short term, soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, under the "anti - involution" logic, supply - side and market sentiment will have a greater impact on prices, and the price center is expected to gradually rise, but the room for price increases will be limited due to the slow improvement of downstream demand [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term macro environment for steel is positive, with supply contraction expectations, stable cost support, and the steel futures market may show a volatile and upward - biased pattern. The long - term trend depends on the actual demand during the peak season [3]. - Iron ore prices are bounded, with short - term stable fundamentals and long - term focus on hot - rolled coil inventory pressure. The current oscillation needs macro changes to break [20]. - For coal and coke, although there are import substitution effects, considering policy expectations and support for finished product prices, the medium - to - long - term trend is not pessimistic [29]. - The price of ferroalloys follows coal price fluctuations. In the short - term, there are still expectations of supply contraction, and in the long - term, demand support may weaken [45]. - The supply of soda ash exceeds demand, with high inventory and weak demand. Attention should be paid to cost fluctuations and price cuts by alkali plants [55]. - The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak sales. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [80]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Supply**: Coal mine over - production governance and the "276 - working - day" policy support costs. There are expectations of supply contraction due to restrictions during the Tangshan parade [3]. - **Demand**: Steel export orders have improved slightly, but the price inversion still exists. The market depends on the actual demand during the peak season [3]. - **Price Data**: On August 13, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased compared to the previous day. The basis and spreads also showed corresponding changes [4][8][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: Iron ore prices are in a following state, with limited fundamental contradictions. The anti - spread is strengthening, and the price range is bounded [20]. - **Price Data**: On August 13, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore futures contracts decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The basis and some spot prices changed [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: Daily hot - metal production is stable at around 2.4 million tons, and port inventories are maintained. There are small changes in shipping and other data [24]. Coal and Coke - **Supply**: There are supply - side disturbances such as coal mine over - production inspections in Shanxi, but the import substitution effect is significant [29]. - **Demand**: Due to the support of finished product prices, steel mill profits are resilient, and the medium - to - long - term demand for coal and coke is not pessimistic [29]. - **Price Data**: On August 13, 2025, the basis, spreads, and costs of coal and coke futures and spot prices changed compared to the previous day [33][34][35]. Ferroalloys - **Market Trend**: The price of ferroalloys follows coal price fluctuations. There are still expectations of supply contraction in the short - term, and long - term demand support may weaken [45]. - **Price Data**: On August 13, 2025, the basis, spreads, and spot prices of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese changed compared to the previous day [46][48]. Soda Ash - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is high, demand is weak, inventory is at a record high, and the market is in a state of supply exceeding demand [55]. - **Price Data**: On August 13, 2025, the prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased compared to the previous day, and the spreads also changed [56]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory, weak sales, and pressure on spot prices [80]. - **Price Data**: On August 13, 2025, the prices of glass futures contracts decreased compared to the previous day, and the spreads and basis changed [81]. - **Sales Data**: The sales rate in different regions shows certain fluctuations [82].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is becoming more rational, and the futures market trend is weakening. If the demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may not maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3]. - The influence of sentiment on the futures market is still significant, and prices will remain volatile. It is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively in the short - term, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities [10]. - In the long - term, the prices of glass and soda ash are affected by the "anti - involution" logic, with their price centers expected to gradually rise, but their upside potential is limited due to weak demand [18][19]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price and Position**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,258 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.246%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 1,197 tons, and the position decreased by 7,237 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,484 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton (0.548%), with registered warehouse receipts increasing by 8,925 tons and the position increasing by 6,551 lots [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by production restriction news, the cost side price rose, driving up the finished product price. The export volume declined slightly this week. Rebar showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with social inventory accumulating for two consecutive weeks. Hot - rolled coils showed a pattern of decreasing supply and demand, with significant inventory accumulation. If demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 801.00 yuan/ton, up 1.52% (+12.00), with a position increase of 51,084 lots to 443,800 lots. The weighted position was 940,500 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 787 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 35.74 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.27% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both decreased. The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.39 tons. Port inventory fluctuated slightly, and steel mill inventory increased slightly. The terminal data weakened slightly. The supply pressure is not significant, and demand support still exists [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position**: On August 12, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.16% at 6,110 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 0.17% at 5,820 yuan/ton. It is recommended that investment positions remain on the sidelines, while hedging positions can participate opportunistically [8][9]. - **Market Outlook**: The over - supply pattern of manganese silicon has not changed. Both ferrosilicon and manganese silicon may face weakening marginal demand. Attention should be paid to downstream demand and relevant policies [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon closed at 8,840 yuan/ton, down 1.78% (-160). The spot price remained flat. The supply is expected to increase in August, and demand can provide some support. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon closed at 51,800 yuan/ton, down 2.24% (-1,185). The spot price remained flat. In August, polysilicon is expected to increase production, and the inventory is likely to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe and Central China decreased. The national inventory increased by 3.95% month - on - month. The market sentiment has cooled down. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and in the long - term, it depends on policies and demand [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased by 40 yuan. The total inventory increased by 0.60%. The downstream is on the sidelines. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and in the long - term, the price center is expected to rise, but the upside is limited [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and the futures prices are expected to gradually return to the real - trading logic. The current static fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and the Politburo meeting has no new statements on real estate. It is expected that the policy direction will continue the previous strict control of the incremental situation. Attention should be paid to the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support strength of the cost side to the prices of finished products [3]. - Short - term commodity prices may be adjusted. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate with the prices of downstream products and mainly oscillate. The market divergence remains, and risk control should be noted [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, it is recommended that investment positions be mainly on the sidelines, and hedging positions can participate opportunistically. In the long - term, the demand of the black sector will weaken marginally [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, although the short - term price is repeated, the high - point may have appeared. For polysilicon, the price is in high - level oscillation, and the short - term price may fluctuate widely. Caution is required when participating [15][16]. - For glass, it is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. In the long - term, if there are substantial policies in real estate, the futures price may continue to rise. For soda ash, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long - term. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [18][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3234 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.030%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 893 tons to 89256 tons, and the main contract position decreased by 56263 lots to 1.652569 million lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3451 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.17%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 55998 tons, and the main contract position decreased by 1559 lots to 1.460175 million lots [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The real - estate policy remains basically unchanged. The export volume has decreased significantly this week. The speculative demand for rebar has decreased, and there is inventory accumulation. The demand for hot - rolled coils has increased slightly, with a rapid increase in production and a small inventory accumulation. The inventory levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at a five - year low [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract (I2509) of iron ore closed at 794.50 yuan/ton, down 0.50% (- 4.00), with a position change of - 26208 lots to 358300 lots. The weighted position was 942500 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 776 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 30.13 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.65% [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining. The shipments from non - mainstream countries increased, and the arrival volume increased. The daily average pig iron output decreased. The port inventory decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased slightly. The profitability of steel mills is still at a high level, and the demand support remains [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 1.30% at 6096 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 94 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed up 3.36% at 5908 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 142 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: Manganese silicon is in an over - supplied industrial pattern, with marginal weakening of future demand and potential downward adjustment of costs. Ferrosilicon also faces the risk of weakening demand and a significant decline in pig iron output in the future [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8700 yuan/ton, up 2.47% (+ 210). The weighted contract position increased by 21227 lots to 522034 lots. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 51345 yuan/ton, up 2.02% (+ 1015). The weighted contract position increased by 5970 lots to 387318 lots [13][15]. - **Market Analysis**: For industrial silicon, the supply is in excess, and the effective demand is insufficient. The price may be repeated in the short - term. For polysilicon, the price is affected by the expected capacity integration plan and the enterprise's price - holding strategy, and it is in high - level oscillation. The inventory may accumulate slightly in August [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1181 yuan, down 9 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased by 239.7 million weight boxes to 5949.9 million weight boxes, a decrease of 3.87% month - on - month and 13.88% year - on - year. The spot price of soda ash was 1320 yuan, up 70 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 56000 tons to 1.8518 million tons, an increase of 3.12% [18][19]. - **Market Analysis**: Glass is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. In the long - term, it depends on real - estate policies. Soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and there are supply - demand contradictions in the long - term [18][19].

1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The black - series market has entered a high - level consolidation period due to the disappointment of policy increment expectations from important domestic meetings. The market trading focus has returned to the industrial fundamentals [12]. - **Steel Products**: The short - term market fluctuations are large, and it is recommended to wait and see. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [9]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, it will operate within a range. After the disappointment of policy expectations, the market will enter a policy vacuum period, and the price will fluctuate at a high level. The i2601 contract price is expected to be in the range of 745 yuan/ton - 780 yuan/ton, and the outer - market FE09 contract price is in the range of 98.5 - 103 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the short - term price fluctuations have intensified. It is recommended to wait and see. Attention should be paid to coal production data, the sustainability of high daily iron - water production of steel mills, and changes in imported coal clearance [13]. - **Ferroalloys**: After important meetings, the market sentiment has cooled down. The alloy price is expected to follow the black - metal market trend, and the short - term fluctuation range may increase. Attention should be paid to steel procurement and supply - side policy implementation [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The prices of most varieties in the black - series futures market declined last week. For example, the price of rebar RB2510 dropped from 3356 yuan/ton on July 25th to 3203 yuan/ton on August 1st, a decrease of 4.56%. The price of coking coal JM2601 dropped from 1318.5 yuan/ton to 1092.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.14% [7]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of most varieties also showed a downward trend. For example, the price of HRB400E Φ20 rebar in Shanghai dropped from 3430 yuan/ton to 3360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.04%. The price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke dropped from 1430 yuan/ton to 1380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.50% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black - Series Market Forecast - **Steel Products** - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment has a greater impact on the market. The blast - furnace utilization rate and daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, while the average capacity utilization rate and operating rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills increased. The fundamentals of steel products are neutral to bearish, and the market is mainly influenced by macro and market sentiment [9]. - **View**: Wait and see due to large short - term fluctuations [9]. - **Attention Points**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [9]. - **Iron Ore** - **Logic**: The policy expectations have failed to materialize. On the supply side, the support from external mines is gradually weakening, and the supply may increase in the medium term. On the demand side, the daily iron - water output has declined, but the demand still has some resilience. The inventory is expected to be stable or increase slightly in the short term [12]. - **View**: It will operate within a range in the short term, and the price will fluctuate at a high level [12]. - **Attention Points**: Military parade production - restriction policies, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the supply recovery speed [11]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Logic**: The market speculation sentiment has cooled down. The coal - coke futures prices have oscillated and declined. The production of some Shanxi coal mines has decreased, and the demand for coking coal still has some resilience. The inventory is affected by factors such as production and demand [13]. - **View**: Wait and see due to intensified short - term price fluctuations [13]. - **Attention Points**: Coal production data, the sustainability of high daily iron - water production of steel mills, and changes in imported coal clearance [13]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Logic**: The market sentiment has cooled down. On the supply side, the production of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron has increased. On the demand side, the demand for silicon - manganese has increased slightly, while the demand for silicon - iron has decreased. The inventory situation of the two is different. The cost side has certain support [14]. - **View**: The price will follow the black - metal market trend, and the short - term fluctuation range may increase [14]. - **Attention Points**: Tariff policy changes, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits and production, and domestic production - restriction policies [14]. 3.3 Product Data - **Steel Products** - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 211.06 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 0.9 tons), the apparent demand was 203.41 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 13.17 tons), and the total inventory increased by 7.65 tons [16]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the output was 322.79 tons (a week - on - week increase of 5.3 tons), the apparent demand was 320 tons (a week - on - week increase of 4.76 tons), and the total inventory increased by 2.79 tons [33]. - **Iron Ore** - **Port Inventory**: The total inventory of imported ore at 45 ports was 13657.90 tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 132.48 tons [47]. - **Steel Mill Inventory and Consumption**: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 9012.09 tons, a week - on - week increase of 126.87 tons, and the daily consumption was 299.46 tons/ day, a week - on - week decrease of 1.64 tons [55]. - **Global Shipment**: The global total shipment was 3200.9 tons last week, a week - on - week increase of 91.8 tons [69]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke was 915.4 tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.83 tons; the total inventory of coking coal was 2493.29 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 37.96 tons [98][106]. - **Profit and Utilization Rate**: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 45 yuan last week, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.2% [115]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Spot Price**: The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 35 yuan/dry ton - degree last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 yuan; the price of silicon - manganese was 5720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan; the price of silicon - iron was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [131]. - **Production and Demand**: The output of silicon - manganese was 190820 tons last week, a week - on - week increase of 4340 tons; the demand for silicon - manganese was 123715 tons, a week - on - week increase of 45 tons [137][144]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of silicon - manganese was 164000 tons on August 1st, a week - on - week decrease of 41000 tons; the inventory of silicon - iron was 65590 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3460 tons [148].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is positive, and the prices of finished products are showing a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The upcoming release of the stable - growth work plans for ten key industries and the construction of the Medog Hydropower Station are expected to boost the demand for building materials, and the market is expected to strengthen due to the low inventory level [3]. - In the short term, with the support of fundamentals and positive market sentiment, iron ore prices may remain strong, but risk control is needed after increased volatility [6]. - For manganese - silicon and silicon - iron, in the context of high volatility and no obvious trend, it is recommended to wait and see. The fundamental logic still points downward, but the current positive market sentiment may affect prices [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term upward trend continues, but it still faces the problems of over - supply and insufficient demand. It is recommended that speculators be rational and industrial players consider hedging [14][15]. - For glass, in the short term, it is boosted by macro - policies and inventory reduction. Long - term price trends depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments. It is recommended to avoid short positions [17]. - For soda ash, it is temporarily strong due to market sentiment, but there are still supply - demand contradictions in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to avoid short positions in the short term and wait for opportunities to go short after the sentiment cools down [18]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,224 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan/ton (2.446%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 897 tons, and the main - contract positions increased by 20,122 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,394 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton (2.537%), with a decrease of 293 tons in registered warehouse receipts and an increase of 4,222 lots in main - contract positions [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply - demand of rebar both decreased, and inventory slightly accumulated. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased, demand slightly increased, and inventory decreased. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are at a five - year low. The market is affected by policies and terminal demand, and attention should be paid to policy signals and demand recovery [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (I2509) closed at 809.00 yuan/ton, up 3.06% (+24.00), with a decrease of 29,220 lots in positions to 663,400 lots. The weighted positions were 1,120,900 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 25.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.06% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Overseas iron - ore shipments increased overall, with a decline in Australia and an increase in Brazil and non - mainstream countries. The near - end arrivals decreased. The daily average pig - iron output increased, and port inventories slightly increased while steel - mill inventories decreased [6]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Prices and Trends**: The manganese - silicon main contract (SM509) closed up 1.90% at 5,914 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract (SF509) closed up 2.90% at 5,668 yuan/ton. The manganese - silicon is still in a rebound trend, and the silicon - iron shows a wide - range shock [9][10]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is recommended to wait and see due to high volatility and no obvious trend. The fundamental logic still points downward, with over - supply, weakening demand, and potential cost reduction [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices and Trends**: The main contract (SI2509) closed up 6.50% at 9,260 yuan/ton. The short - term upward trend continues, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 9,700 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: It still faces over - supply and insufficient demand. It is recommended that speculators be rational and industrial players consider hedging [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China increased. The total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises decreased. It is boosted by policies and inventory reduction in the short term. Long - term trends depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments. It is recommended to avoid short positions [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The demand is still weak, and the supply is relatively loose in the medium term. It is temporarily strong due to market sentiment, and it is recommended to avoid short positions in the short term and wait for opportunities to go short after the sentiment cools down [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is driven by the expectation of supply contraction and demand expansion. The steel price is expected to remain strong before the Politburo meeting in July, but there is a risk of a pullback due to a decline in sentiment [3]. - The iron ore market remains strong, with both fundamentals and expectations improving. The short - term outlook for industrial products is positive, but there are concerns about increased shipments [17]. - The coking coal and coke market is supported by speculative and rigid demand in the short term, but the high price of furnace materials may pose a threat to steel mill profits in the long term [31]. - The ferroalloy market is expected to have an optimistic price trend in the short term, but the fundamental driving force is not strong, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations [48]. - The soda ash market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the market is in a long - term oversupply expectation. Attention should be paid to unexpected or policy - related disturbances [62]. - The glass market remains strong, and the supply is in a state of co - existence of ignition and cold repair. The market is in a weak balance, and attention should be paid to the feedback of industrial behavior on the spot side [85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Market Situation**: Influenced by policies and project news, steel prices rose. The current supply - demand of steel has no significant contradiction, and the "off - season is not off" effect is generated. Before the Politburo meeting in July, the steel price is expected to remain strong, but there is a risk of a pullback [3]. - **Price Data**: Provided the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts on different dates, as well as spot prices, basis, and spread data [3][6][10]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The iron ore market remains strong, with iron water production increasing unexpectedly. The inventory accumulation is not smooth, and the spot is in a tight balance. However, there are concerns about increased shipments [17]. - **Price and Fundamental Data**: Provided price data of iron ore contracts, basis, and spot prices, as well as fundamental data such as iron water production, port throughput, and inventory [18][25]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: The coking coal and coke market is supported by speculative and rigid demand in the short term, and the second round of price increases by coking plants is likely to be implemented. In the long term, the high price of furnace materials may pose a threat to steel mill profits [31]. - **Price Data**: Provided coking coal and coke contract prices, basis, and spot prices, as well as profit and ratio data [31][33]. Ferroalloy - **Market Situation**: Driven by the anti - involution sentiment and the strengthening of coal prices, the ferroalloy price is expected to be optimistic in the short term. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations [48]. - **Price Data**: Provided price data of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, including basis, spread, and spot prices [49][50]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity expectations are fermenting, but the actual impact needs further policy guidance. The supply is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the demand is weak. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation [62]. - **Price Data**: Provided soda ash contract prices, basis, and spot prices, as well as price difference data [63][64]. Glass - **Market Situation**: Driven by the anti - involution expectation, the glass market remains strong. The supply is in a state of co - existence of ignition and cold repair, and the market is in a weak balance. Attention should be paid to the feedback of industrial behavior on the spot side [85]. - **Price and Sales Data**: Provided glass contract prices, basis, and daily sales data in different regions [87][88].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the steel market, with optimistic domestic and overseas macro - environments and coking coal price concessions as a supporting factor, the steel futures market is rising. The downstream's enthusiasm for covering short positions and spot - futures trading has increased, and steel mills' orders are good. The market is expected to remain strong in the short term [3]. - For iron ore, its short - term fundamentals are strengthening. Although there may be a slight weakening in the long - term, the contradictions are not significant. With high inventory, potential for increased shipments, and stable steel mill demand, it is still considered strong in the short term [20]. - Regarding coal and coke, the short - term market may continue to be strong due to the current good profitability of downstream steel mills. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand gap of coking coal will narrow, and the high iron - making rate may not be sustainable [29]. - In the ferroalloy market, driven by anti - cut - throat competition sentiment, it has been rising slowly. But considering the weakening cost and downstream demand in the off - season, it is expected to be weak in the long - term, with possible fluctuations [46]. - For soda ash, due to the expected disturbances and fundamental limitations, it is rising in a volatile manner. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to unexpected or policy - related factors [58]. - In the glass market, the price has moved up. The supply side has a co - existence of ignition and cold - repair, and the market needs to observe the improvement of market sentiment and the real downstream demand [89]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3191, 3207, and 3147 yuan/ton respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3320, 3327, and 3310 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3319 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3340 yuan/ton [6][8]. - **Spread**: The 01 - 05 spread of rebar was - 16 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil was - 7 yuan/ton on July 18, 2025 [4]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 753, 730, and 785 yuan/ton respectively [21]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 773 yuan/ton [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The daily average pig iron output on July 18, 2025, was 242.44 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 13785.21 tons [24]. Coal and Coke - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 49.5 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 - 01 spread was - 45 yuan/ton [30]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1300 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1030 yuan/ton [31]. - **Profit and Spread**: The on - site coking profit on July 18, 2025, was 73 yuan/ton, and the main ore - coke ratio was 0.517 [30]. Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron**: On July 18, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 72 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 60 yuan/ton [49]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On July 18, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 176 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 28 yuan/ton [50]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1306, 1216, and 1265 yuan/ton respectively [60]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [61]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1240, 1081, and 1165 yuan/ton respectively [90]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the 05 - contract basis in Shahe was - 74 yuan/ton [90]. - **Production and Sales**: From July 8 - 13, 2025, the production - sales ratio in Shahe ranged from 91% to 120%, and in Hubei from 92% to 163% [92].

Report Date - The report is dated July 14, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - **Steel Market**: Last week, the steel market was driven by supply - side "anti - involution" and production restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi. With the expectation of a central urban work conference, the market speculated on policy dividends. The overall sentiment was optimistic, pushing up prices. In the short - term, the market may continue to rise due to strong macro - optimism and speculative inventory locking, but export orders and production in the home appliance and auto industries are declining [3] - **Iron Ore Market**: The recent sharp rise in iron ore prices is driven by rumors, low valuation, improved fundamentals, and policy catalysts. Currently, prices are mainly driven by expectations, and the short - term fundamentals are favorable, but there is high short - term uncertainty [18] - **Coal and Coke Market**: Recently, the macro - environment has been warm, leading to a strong rebound in the coal and coke market. In the short - term, the market may continue to be strong, but in the long - term, the supply - demand gap for coking coal will narrow, and the high iron - making volume may not be sustainable [32] - **Ferroalloy Market**: Driven by "anti - involution" sentiment, ferroalloys have been rising slowly, but the long - term trend is weak due to steel mills' price - pressing and cost reduction. The market may oscillate between sentiment - driven factors and real - world constraints [52] - **Soda Ash Market**: Affected by expectations and fundamental limitations, soda ash prices are rising. The supply is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the demand is weak, with an overall supply - surplus situation. Attention should be paid to unexpected or policy - related disturbances [63] - **Glass Market**: Driven by "anti - involution" expectations, the glass market is strong. The supply side has a combination of ignition and cold repair, and the inventory situation varies by region. Attention should be paid to cold - repair expectations and speculative demand [86] Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3170 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3288 yuan/ton. The spot price of rebar in China was 3292 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3300 yuan/ton [4][7] - **Market Analysis**: The market was driven by supply - side policies and demand - side policy expectations. The inventory was low, and the speculative demand was rising, but export orders were decreasing [3] Iron Ore - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the 01 contract was 736.5 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 766.5 yuan/ton. The price of Rizhao PB powder was 750 yuan/ton [19] - **Fundamentals**: The daily average pig iron output was 239.81 tons, the 45 - port inventory was 13765.89 tons, and the global shipping volume was 2987.1 tons [26] - **Market Analysis**: The price increase was driven by multiple factors, and the short - term fundamentals were favorable, but there was high uncertainty [18] Coal and Coke - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 43.5 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 - 01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton. The spot price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1200 yuan/ton, and the Rizhao quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1270 yuan/ton [33][34] - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, the market may be strong due to good downstream profits, but in the long - term, the supply - demand gap will narrow, and the high iron - making volume may not be sustainable [32] Ferroalloy - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 90 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 204 yuan/ton. The spot price of silicon - iron in Ningxia was 5300 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5600 yuan/ton [53][54] - **Market Analysis**: Driven by "anti - involution" sentiment, the market rose slowly, but the long - term trend was weak due to price - pressing and cost reduction. The market may oscillate [52] Soda Ash - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1311 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 1241 yuan/ton. The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [64][65] - **Market Analysis**: Affected by expectations and fundamentals, the price was rising. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak, with an overall supply - surplus situation [63] Glass - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1232 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 1086 yuan/ton. The 09 contract basis in Shahe was 79.4 yuan/ton [88] - **Market Analysis**: Driven by "anti - involution" expectations, the market was strong. The supply side had ignition and cold repair, and the inventory situation varied by region [86]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market rebounded yesterday, with the prices of finished steel products showing a volatile and upward trend. The "anti - involution and capacity reduction" proposal and the expected production restrictions in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region have pushed up the prices of steel products. However, the actual implementation of these policies needs further verification. The static fundamentals of steel have no obvious contradictions, and future attention should be paid to policy trends, terminal demand recovery, and cost support [3]. - The price of iron ore is in a wide - range volatile state in the short term. The supply of iron ore has decreased, and the demand has also declined due to factors such as seasonal maintenance of blast furnaces and production cuts by some steel mills. The impact of macro - expectations on the market has increased, and attention should be paid to the interference of production restrictions in Tangshan and the reduction of pellet production expectations by Vale [6]. - For manganese silicon and silicon iron, the prices are expected to maintain a volatile or slightly rebound state in the short term. The market is optimistic about the "capacity reduction" policy, but there are still uncertainties. Enterprises with hedging profit margins are recommended to conduct appropriate hedging operations [9][10]. - The price of industrial silicon is still in a downward trend. The market is optimistic about the "capacity reduction" policy, but the comparison with the 2015 supply - side reform is questionable. Short - term speculative short positions are recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - For glass, the policy expectation has a strong impact on the price, and short positions are recommended to avoid and wait. For soda ash, the supply is still abundant, and the inventory pressure is large. It is expected to rebound following glass, but the sustainability of the rebound is limited [15][17]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3076 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.358%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai remained flat. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3208 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.532%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in Lecong increased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai remained flat [2]. - **Fundamentals**: This week, the apparent supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory depletion speed slowed down. The output of hot - rolled coils slightly increased, the demand declined, and the inventory slightly accumulated, but it was still at a five - year low [3]. Iron Ore - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 733.00 yuan/ton, up 1.45% (+10.50). The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 725 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 35.46 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.61% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The latest iron ore shipments decreased, and the near - end arrivals also declined. The daily average pig iron output decreased, and the terminal demand was neutral. The port inventory changed little, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 3, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.24% at 5712 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was at a premium to the futures. The main contract of silicon iron (SF509) closed down 0.85% at 5390 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was also at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The prices are expected to be volatile or slightly rebound in the short term. The market is optimistic about the "capacity reduction" policy, but there are uncertainties [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 3, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed down 2.44% at 8010 yuan/ton. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China increased, and both were at a premium to the futures [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The price is still in a downward trend. The market's optimism about the "capacity reduction" policy needs further verification [12][13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe increased by 21 yuan, and that in Central China remained flat. The national inventory decreased slightly. The policy expectation pushed up the futures price, and short positions are recommended to avoid and wait [15]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price decreased by 20 yuan. The domestic inventory increased by 2.30%. The demand continued to decline, and the supply was still abundant. It is expected to rebound following glass, but the rebound sustainability is limited [15][17].