Overall Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Global trade tensions are escalating, leading to increased short - term volatility in global markets. The market has a mixed attitude towards the trade situation, with optimism about trade dialogues but also concerns about tariff hikes. In China, the May PMI data shows economic expansion, yet US trade restrictions pose a short - term dampening effect on domestic risk appetite [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks. For example, stocks are expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a cautious approach to long - positions; bonds are at a high level and should be observed carefully; various commodity sectors also have their own short - term trends and trading suggestions [2]. Summary by Categories Macro - Overseas: US "steel tariffs" and EU's potential counter - measures, along with intensified Russia - Ukraine conflict, have increased geopolitical risks and global risk aversion. However, the market remains optimistic about US trade dialogues, and the US dollar index is generally weak. - Domestic: China's May PMI data indicates economic expansion, but US restrictions in semiconductor and other fields, as well as tariff hikes, pose short - term pressure on domestic risk appetite. Asset suggestions include short - term cautious long - positions for stocks, high - level observation for bonds, and different trading stances for various commodity sectors [2]. Stocks - Affected by sectors such as controllable nuclear fusion, domestic stocks have declined slightly. The May PMI data is positive, but US trade restrictions and tariff hikes suppress domestic risk appetite. The market is focused on US trade policies and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long - positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Last week, precious metals showed a volatile pattern, with COMEX gold down 1.33% to $3313.1 per ounce and silver down 1.68%. Fed's cautious stance, Trump's tariff policies, and geopolitical risks have affected the market. In the short - term, precious metals are expected to be strong, and in the long - term, the upward logic remains solid. Attention should be paid to long - term layout opportunities after corrections [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Before the holiday, the spot market was stable, but the futures price declined. During the holiday, trade conflicts increased risk aversion. In the short - term, the steel market is expected to be weak as supply remains high while demand is affected by trade tensions [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Before the holiday, prices were weak. Although iron - water production has declined, the market is divided on its future path. Supply may increase in the second quarter, and the price is expected to be bearish in the short - term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Before the holiday, prices were flat. Demand is fair, but silicon manganese is in an industry - wide loss, and silicon iron has weak downstream procurement. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [7]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ production increase is in line with expectations, and geopolitical risks in Ukraine and Iran, along with Canadian wildfires, have pushed up oil prices [8]. - **Asphalt**: As oil prices rise, asphalt prices are expected to follow. Demand is currently average, and inventory depletion has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil [8]. - **PX**: The price is high, and it is expected to be strong in the short - term, but there is a risk of a slight decline later due to potential demand reduction [9]. - **PTA**: Downstream production has decreased, and supply is expected to increase, leading to a weakening structure in the future [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply has contracted, but downstream production cuts limit inventory depletion. The price will slightly increase [9]. - **Short - fiber**: It remains in a weak and volatile pattern, with concerns about downstream production and order release [9]. - **Methanol**: Import and port inventory are increasing, and prices are expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term [10]. - **PP**: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is in a seasonal low. The price is likely to move downward [10]. - **LLDPE**: The supply - demand situation is expected to worsen, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market expects a 50% tariff on copper, driving up prices. The copper ore supply is tight, but demand may decline in the short - term, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [11]. - **Aluminum**: The 50% tariff on aluminum has led to a slight increase in prices. Supply is high, and demand is expected to decline, but there is still an export rush effect. It is recommended to observe [12]. - **Tin**: High tariffs, potential supply increases from Myanmar, and seasonal demand decline pose pressure on prices, but it has stabilized after a significant drop [13]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean market is supported by a weak US dollar but faces challenges such as good planting conditions in the US, high Brazilian inventory, and slow sales due to trade tensions. It may maintain a weak range - bound trend [13]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Oil mills' inventory is expected to recover, and the lack of upward momentum in US soybeans affects soybean meal. Rapeseed meal has supply uncertainties. The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal may shrink [14]. - **Oils and Fats**: During the holiday, oils and fats were under pressure. The energy market is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term, and domestic oils may continue to decline after the holiday, with the soybean - palm oil spread likely to remain inverted [14]. - **Hogs**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the supply - demand situation is weak, and pig prices may continue to decline, but there may be a short - term correction in near - month contracts [15]. - **Corn**: New wheat listing may replace some corn demand, but in the long - run, corn is likely to rise, and it will maintain a range - bound trend [15].

Report Investment Ratings - Glass: Neutral, Expected to Oscillate [2] - Soda Ash: Bearish, Expected to Oscillate with a Downward Bias [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Neutral, Expected to Oscillate [5] - Ferrosilicon: Neutral, Expected to Oscillate [5] Core Views - Glass and soda ash markets face an oversupply situation, resulting in low - level oscillations. The glass market is pressured by high inventory and weak downstream expectations, while soda ash is affected by new production capacity and cautious downstream procurement [1]. - The ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are pessimistic. Their prices are suppressed by high inventory, but demand shows some resilience due to high - level hot metal production. Cost factors also play a role in price trends [3][4]. Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Futures prices continued to decline, and spot trading was weak. The oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and high inventory strongly suppresses prices. Glass enterprises are reluctant to shut down production, and long - term losses are needed to clear excess capacity. Attention should be paid to production line changes and raw material prices [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Futures prices trended downward. Due to maintenance, daily production decreased slightly. Downstream procurement was cautious, and the market faced strong destocking pressure. The price will be under pressure until the oversupply situation is alleviated. Follow - up attention should be paid to production line maintenance and new production projects [1]. Ferrosilicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon - **Ferrosilicon Manganese**: Futures prices oscillated at a low level. The spot market was weak, and factory low - price sales willingness was low. Production was at a low level but rebounded slightly week - on - week. Demand showed resilience due to high - level hot metal production. High inventory of manufacturers and registered warrants suppressed prices, while raw material supply contraction supported costs. Attention should be paid to hot metal data and manganese ore supply [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Futures prices oscillated weakly at a low level. The spot market was weak, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. Production reached a record low due to enterprise losses. High - level hot metal maintained demand resilience, but destocking was difficult. Short - term prices were affected by costs. Attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies [4]. Strategy - **Glass**: Oscillate [2] - **Soda Ash**: Oscillate with a downward bias [2] - **Ferrosilicon Manganese**: Oscillate [5] - **Ferrosilicon**: Oscillate [5] - **Inter - period Spread**: No strategy [2] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: No strategy [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Yesterday, steel prices were still weak with significant declines. The rebar price fell below the valley - electricity cost, but blast - furnace profits remained positive. Terminal orders decreased, affecting cold - rolled steel inventories. After the tariff reduction in May, demand recovered, and the April rush for re - export trade also supported demand. Short - term steel inventory pressure is expected to be low, supporting high production levels. However, steel prices are affected by the decline of carbon elements and the seasonal decline of hot - metal production. Negative - feedback trading may be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the iron ore 09 contract fell weakly. This week, global iron ore shipments decreased slightly, and arrivals were at a relatively low level. On the demand side, hot - metal production declined from its peak, and direct and indirect export orders for finished products were below expectations. The market is trading the negative - feedback expectation in advance. Although the terminal demand for finished products may weaken in the off - season, it still has some resilience. The decline of hot - metal production is limited. Overseas mines are starting to boost shipments, and the supply pressure will increase. Short - term iron ore prices are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the support around 670 - 680 [4]. Coke Industry - Yesterday, coke futures continued to fluctuate and adjust. The spot price of coke has been lowered twice, and there are still 1 - 2 rounds of expected price cuts. On the supply side, due to the decline of downstream hot - metal production, coke enterprises' shipments slowed down, but production increased slightly, and coking profits improved. On the demand side, hot - metal production remained above 240,000 tons per day in May but declined slightly last week, and blast - furnace开工率 has shown signs of peaking. In terms of inventory, coking plants' inventories are accumulating, port inventories are slightly decreasing, and steel mills' inventories are decreasing. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract after a rebound and stop the profit of the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, coking coal futures continued to fluctuate and adjust. The spot price of coking coal has been falling, and the futures market has a deep - discount structure with high hedging pressure. The supply is abundant, with high domestic coal production and weak imported coal prices. The demand side shows that coking production is increasing slightly, but downstream hot - metal production may have peaked. Coal mines' inventories are accumulating, and downstream inventories are at a low level. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract after a rebound and stop the profit of the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [6]. Ferrosilicon Industry - Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures main contract fell. An Inner Mongolia large - scale factory partially shut down furnaces, reducing daily production. Supply pressure has been relieved after previous production cuts, but inventories are still at a medium - high level. Some producers are suffering losses and reducing production. On the demand side, hot - metal production declined this week, and the demand for ferrosilicon is limited. The cost of semi - coke is weakly stable. In the future, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has been alleviated, but short - term demand lacks support, and costs may decline, so the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. Ferromanganese Industry - Yesterday, the ferromanganese futures main contract fluctuated weakly. In Inner Mongolia, some factories are resuming production, and the supply pressure is concentrated in the northern region. On the demand side, hot - metal production is declining, and the market is trading the negative - feedback expectation. The overall finished products are in the process of de - stocking, but the cold - rolled pressure is still large. Manganese ore prices are under pressure due to high future arrivals. In the future, the short - term supply pressure of ferromanganese is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices all declined. For example, rebar spot in East China decreased from 3150 to 3130 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil spot in East China decreased from 3230 to 3200 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar decreased by 36 yuan/ton. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East, North, and South China all decreased [1]. Production - The daily average hot - metal production decreased by 1.2 to 243.6 tons, a decrease of 0.5%. The production of five major steel products increased by 4.1 to 872.4 tons, an increase of 0.5%. Rebar production increased by 4.9 to 231.5 tons, an increase of 2.2%, while hot - rolled coil production decreased by 6.3 to 305.7 tons, a decrease of 2.0% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 32.1 to 1398.5 tons, a decrease of 2.2%. Rebar inventory decreased by 15.7 to 604.2 tons, a decrease of 2.5%, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 7.4 to 340.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.7 to 10.2 tons, an increase of 6.8%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 9.2 to 904.6 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils also decreased [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, and the 09 - contract basis of various iron ore powders also decreased significantly. For example, the 09 - contract basis of PB powder decreased from 131.7 to 77.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41.5% [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased, and the prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe also decreased [4]. Supply - The global weekly iron ore shipments increased by 318.8 to 3347.8 tons, an increase of 10.5%, but the weekly arrivals decreased by 83.3 to 2271.3 tons, a decrease of 3.5% [4]. Demand - The 45 - port average daily ore - removal volume increased by 3.2 to 327.1 tons, an increase of 1.0%. The national monthly crude - steel production decreased by 682.2 to 8601 tons, a decrease of 7.3% [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port iron ore inventory decreased by 129.0 to 13858.79 tons, a decrease of 0.9%. The 247 - steel - mill imported - ore inventory decreased by 35.7 to 8925.5 tons, a decrease of 0.4% [4]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices decreased. The coke 09 contract decreased from 1375 to 1364 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.8%, and the coke 01 contract decreased from 1391 to 1388 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2%. The coking profit decreased by 22 to - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 146.7% [6]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal decreased. The coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) decreased from 1030 to 1000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.9% [6]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 67.3 tons, an increase of 0.2%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [6]. Demand - The 247 - steel - mill hot - metal production decreased by 1.2 to 243.6 tons, a decrease of 0.5% [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 1.7 to 984.9 tons, an increase of 0.2%. The coking - plant inventory increased by 9.0 to 103.3 tons, an increase of 9.5%, the steel - mill inventory decreased by 3.2 to 660.6 tons, a decrease of 0.5%, and the port inventory decreased by 4.1 to 221.0 tons, a decrease of 1.8% [6]. Coke Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.6 to - 1.4 tons, an increase of 40.0% [6]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal futures prices decreased. The coking coal 09 contract decreased from 800 to 799.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.12%, and the coking coal 01 contract decreased from 813 to 815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21%. The sample coal - mine profit decreased by 17 to 382 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.3% [6]. Overseas Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs coking - coal arrival price remained unchanged, while the Jingtang Port Australian main - coking - coal ex - warehouse price increased by 160 to 1390 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.0% [6]. Supply - The weekly raw - coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 2.8 to 895.8 tons, an increase of 0.3%, and the weekly clean - coal production increased by 1.9 to 459.2 tons, an increase of 0.4% [6]. Demand - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 67.3 tons, an increase of 0.2%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [6]. Inventory - The Fenwei coal - mine clean - coal inventory increased by 19.4 to 230.3 tons, an increase of 9.2%. The all - sample coking - plant coking - coal inventory decreased by 19.2 to 865.7 tons, a decrease of 2.2%, and the port inventory decreased by 5.1 to 301.0 tons, a decrease of 1.7% [6]. Ferrosilicon Industry Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferrosilicon futures main - contract price decreased from 5506 to 5452 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.0%. The spot prices of ferrosilicon in various regions also decreased [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Ningxia remained unchanged, but the production profits decreased. The production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased by 30 to - 156 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.8% [7]. Supply - The weekly ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.5 to 8.9 tons, a decrease of 4.9%, and the production - enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.8 to 30.4%, a decrease of 2.6% [7]. Demand - The weekly ferrosilicon demand increased by 0.0 to 2.1 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The 247 - steel - mill average daily hot - metal production decreased by 1.2 to 243.6 tons, a decrease of 0.5% [7]. Inventory - The 60 - sample - enterprise ferrosilicon inventory increased by 0.1 to 7.5 tons, an increase of 1.9%, and the downstream average available days decreased by 0.2 to 15.2 days, a decrease of 1.6% [7]. Ferromanganese Industry Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferromanganese futures main - contract price decreased from 5668 to 5616 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.9%. The spot prices of ferromanganese in various regions also decreased [7]. Cost and Profit - The prices of manganese ores in Tianjin Port decreased. The production costs of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi decreased, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased by 32.8 to - 203.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.2% [7]. Manganese Ore Supply - The weekly manganese - ore shipments decreased by 16.5 to 68.6 tons, a decrease of 19.4%, but the weekly arrivals increased by 3.3 to 54.3 tons, an increase of 6.5% [7]. Manganese Ore Inventory - The weekly manganese - ore port inventory increased by 23.2 to 418.0 tons, an increase of 5.9% [7]. Supply - The weekly ferromanganese production increased by 0.2 to 16.5 tons, an increase of 1.5%, and the operating rate increased by 0.6 to 34.2%, an increase of 1.74% [7]. Demand - The ferromanganese demand increased by 0.1 to 12.7 tons, an increase of 0.8%. The ferromanganese procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group increased by 0.0 to 1.2 tons, an increase of 1.8% [7]. Inventory - The 63 - sample - enterprise ferromanganese inventory decreased by 0.6 to 20.1 tons, a decrease of 2.9%, and the average available days decreased by 1.2 to 15 days, a decrease of 7.0% [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the EU plans to accelerate tariff negotiations with the US after the US threatens to impose tariffs on the EU, reducing global risk aversion. The US dollar index rebounds in the short - term, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, although domestic demand in April slowed down and was lower than expected, industrial production and exports far exceeded expectations, and the economic growth remained stable. The central bank's interest - rate cut and the reduced risk of tariff escalation between the US and the EU help boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index oscillates in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, black metals oscillate at a low level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as biomedicine, automobiles, and banks, the domestic stock market continued to decline slightly. The short - term risk appetite may be boosted, but there is no obvious macro - drive for trading currently. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [2][3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and trade policy disturbances increase, and the short - term support for gold is strengthened. In the long - term, the uncertainty of the US economy and the marginal weakening of US debt credit will support the upward movement of the valuation center of precious metals [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market is in a dilemma, with weakening real demand and increasing supply. It is advisable to treat the short - term steel market with an interval - oscillation mindset [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The price decline of iron ore has widened. Although the iron - water output has decreased, there are differences in the market's view of its decline path. The supply may increase in the second quarter, and it is advisable to take a bearish view in the short term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron have decreased. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the downstream procurement sentiment is not good. The market will oscillate in the short term [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump delays imposing a 50% tariff on the EU, boosting market sentiment. The short - term oil price may fluctuate significantly due to event - based factors and macro - impacts [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price oscillates weakly following crude oil. The demand is average, and the inventory de - stocking has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [8]. - **PX**: The polyester sector has corrected, and PX has declined slightly. It maintains a strong oscillation in the short term but may decline slightly later [8]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up rate has decreased, and PTA is affected by negative feedback from the downstream. The de - stocking rate will slow down, and the upward space is limited [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The de - stocking is mainly due to the decrease in start - up, and the price will oscillate [10]. - **Short - fiber**: It maintains a high - level and weak - oscillation pattern and will continue to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **Methanol**: The price in the Taicang market has declined, and the basis has strengthened. The price will likely remain stagnant in the short term but may decline in the long - term [11]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market has declined. The downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the price is expected to decline under pressure [12]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has decreased. The short - term demand has been slightly repaired, but the supply pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the price may decline in the long - term [12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper concentrate TC continues to decline, and the supply is increasing. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum inventory is decreasing significantly, but the demand growth rate cannot be sustained. It is advisable to be cautious about short - selling in the short term and wait for a better short - selling point [14]. - **Tin**: The supply is gradually recovering, but there is still a raw - material gap in China. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the market is under pressure [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: There is no weather premium for US soybeans currently. The market is in a range - bound situation without a continuous upward drive [16][17]. - **Soybean Meal**: The basis of soybean meal is weakening, and it lacks a stable upward support [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the price is supported by the low - level inventory of rapeseeds and the strong price - support intention of oil mills [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil in Southeast Asia is in the production - increasing cycle, and the domestic market generally fluctuates with the BMD market but has stronger support when falling [18]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs has decreased slightly before the Dragon Boat Festival, but the price is still under pressure in the future. The futures may rise in June due to the high basis [19]. - **Corn**: With the harvest of new - season wheat, the corn price is under pressure, and there is no upward drive currently [19].

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月26日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货 (华东) | 3180 | 3190 | -10 | 121 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3210 | 3220 | -10 | 151 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3320 | 3350 | -30 | 261 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3078 | 3097 | -19 | 102 | | | 螺纹钢10台约 | 3046 | 3061 | -15 | 134 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3059 | 3081 | -22 | 121 | | | 热卷现货 (华东) | 3260 | 3270 | -10 | 62 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3190 | 3200 | -10 | -8 | | | ...

数据来源：Wind、Mystee、富宝资讯、广发期货发展研究中心。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 免责声明 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月22日 | | | 問數波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3190 | 3190 | O | 105 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3220 | 3220 | O | 135 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3350 | 3350 | 0 | 265 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3101 | 3095 | 6 | 8d | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3061 | 3058 | 3 | 129 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3085 | 3083 | 2 | 105 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3280 | 3280 | 0 | 57 | | | 热卷现 ...

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Core Views - **Steel Industry**: The steel industry shows a structure of high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and expected demand recovery. Despite potential seasonal and export - related demand weaknesses, with the reduction of tariffs in May, terminal orders have improved, and steel exports remain high. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels, with attention on support at previous lows. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. - **Iron Ore Industry**: The iron ore market is expected to oscillate in the short term. Although the high iron - water production keeps the inventory slightly decreasing, the expected increase in overseas mine shipments from May to June will intensify supply - demand pressure. However, improved macro - expectations may repair market sentiment [4]. - **Coke Industry**: The coke market is bearish. With steel mills reducing coke prices, the fundamental situation is unfavorable. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract when the price is high and continue to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [6]. - **Coking Coal Industry**: The coking coal market remains weak. Given the downward trend of coal prices and better fundamentals of finished products compared to coking coal, it is advisable to short the coking coal 2509 contract when the price is high and continue the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [6]. - **Silicon Iron Industry**: The silicon iron price is expected to oscillate. After previous production cuts, the supply pressure has eased, and factory inventories are decreasing. However, overall inventory is still at a medium - high level. Demand is limited, and it is necessary to focus on subsequent export changes [7]. - **Silicon Manganese Industry**: The silicon manganese market maintains production cuts. Supply pressure is concentrated in certain regions, and the price is expected to oscillate [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most steel spot prices remained unchanged, while futures prices showed small increases. For example, the price of the rebar 05 contract rose by 6 yuan/ton to 3101 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and slabs remained stable. The profit of hot - rolled coils in South China increased by 8 yuan/ton, while the profit of rebar in South China decreased by 22 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average iron - water production remained unchanged at 245.6 tons, while the production of five major steel products decreased by 5.8 tons to 868.4 tons, a decline of 0.7% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 45.4 tons to 1430.7 tons, a decline of 3.1%. Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories also decreased [1]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 68.6 tons to 913.8 tons, an increase of 8.1%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 46.4 tons to 260.3 tons, an increase of 21.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of iron ore spot and futures showed small changes. For example, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port increased by 1 yuan/ton to 765 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis of PB powder decreased by 59.9 yuan/ton to 82.2 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly global iron ore shipment volume increased by 318.8 tons to 3347.8 tons, an increase of 10.5%, while the weekly domestic arrival volume decreased by 83.3 tons to 2271.3 tons, a decline of 3.5% [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.9 tons to 244.8 tons, a decline of 0.4% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port iron ore inventory decreased by 110.5 tons to 14055.63 tons, a decline of 0.8% [4]. Coke Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the coke 09 contract increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1418 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 2 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 tons to 67.2 tons, an increase of 0.3% [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly iron - water production decreased by 0.9 tons to 244.8 tons, a decline of 0.4% [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 11.3 tons to 983.2 tons, a decline of 1.1% [6]. Coking Coal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the coking coal 09 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 842 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis decreased by 9 yuan/ton to 108 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly raw coal production increased by 2.8 tons to 895.8 tons, an increase of 0.3% [6]. - **Demand**: The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 tons to 67.2 tons, an increase of 0.3% [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of clean coal in Fenwei mines increased by 19.4 tons to 230.3 tons, an increase of 9.2% [6]. Silicon Iron Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the silicon iron main contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 5620 yuan/ton. The price of silicon iron in Tianjin decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 5750 yuan/ton [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost and profit in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged, with a production profit of - 118 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: The weekly silicon iron production decreased by 0.9 tons to 9.4 tons, a decline of 9.1% [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly silicon iron demand remained unchanged at 2.0 tons [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 1.0 tons to 74 tons, a decline of 11.8% [7]. Silicon Manganese Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the silicon manganese main contract increased by 14 yuan/ton to 5792 yuan/ton. The price of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 5580 yuan/ton [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 9.6 yuan/ton to 5768.5 yuan/ton, and the production profit decreased by 10.4 yuan/ton to - 188.5 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: The weekly silicon manganese production decreased by 0.9 tons to 16.3 tons, a decline of 5.4% [7]. - **Demand**: The silicon manganese demand remained unchanged at 12.6 tons [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 2.5 tons to 20.7 tons, an increase of 13.9% [7].

| | | | 11 11 11 11 | SUIT FULUKES | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月21日 | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ★☆★ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 锰硅 | ★☆★ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面窄幅度荡。淡季来临课统表需波动下行，产量相对平稳，库存延续下降态势。热卷需求仍有韧烂,产量有所回落,库 存延续下降态势。铁水产量有所回落,整体仍处于高位,供应压力依然较大,没事终端承接能力有待观察。从下游行业看,内 需整体依依偏弱,制造业投资增速退步放缓 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry shows a structure of high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and improved demand expectations. It is approaching the seasonal off - season, and there is a possibility of weakening manufacturing demand (exports). The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with attention paid to whether there is support at the previous low. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is expected to be mainly in a state of oscillation in the short term. Although the iron ore inventory is slightly decreasing under high pig iron production, the supply is expected to increase in the future, and the macro - expectation improvement may bring sentiment repair [3]. Coke Industry - The coke market is in a weak state. The supply side has improved production due to good orders, and the demand side shows a sign of peaking and falling. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract opportunistically and continue to hold the strategy of longing hot - rolled coils and shorting coke [5]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal market is in a weak pattern, with the supply being relatively high and the demand likely to decline. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract opportunistically and continue to hold the strategy of longing hot - rolled coils and shorting coking coal [5]. Ferrosilicon Industry - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has been significantly alleviated, and it is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the marginal change in exports [6]. Ferromanganese Industry - The ferromanganese price is expected to continue to oscillate and decline. Although the supply - demand gap is narrowing under production cuts, the cost and supply pressure still exist [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products show minor changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in South China increased by 10 yuan/ton, while the 05 - contract price of rebar decreased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 13 yuan/ton. The profit of rebar in different regions also showed varying degrees of decline [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron production remained unchanged at 245.6 tons, and the production of five major steel products decreased by 5.8 tons. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.1%, with rebar and hot - rolled coils having a better de - stocking situation [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 3.1%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 8.1%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 21.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The basis of the 09 - contract for various iron ore types increased significantly. For example, the basis of the 09 - contract for PB powder increased by 57.2 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 209.0% [3]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 10.5% week - on - week, and the domestic arrival volume decreased by 3.5%. The pig iron production may decline slightly, but it is still expected to remain at a high level [3]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 45 ports decreased by 0.8% week - on - week, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.0% [3]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of the coke 09 - contract decreased by 1.4%, and the 09 - basis increased by 21 yuan/ton. The coking profit increased by 85.7% week - on - week [5]. Supply and Demand - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3%, and the pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% [5]. Inventory Change - The total coke inventory decreased by 1.1%, with the inventory of coking plants, steel mills, and ports all showing a downward trend [5]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of the coking coal 09 - contract decreased by 0.8%, and the 09 - basis decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 4.3% week - on - week [5]. Supply and Demand - The production of raw coal and clean coal increased slightly, and the daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3% [5]. Inventory Change - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei sample mines increased by 9.2%, the inventory of coking plants decreased by 3.5%, and the port inventory increased by 2.8% [5]. Ferrosilicon Industry Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The price of the ferrosilicon 72%FeSi in some regions decreased slightly, and the SF - SM main - contract spread increased by 14 yuan/ton [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in some regions decreased slightly, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia increased by 2.5% [6]. Supply and Demand - The ferrosilicon production decreased by 9.15%, and the demand remained stable [6]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 11.8% [6]. Ferromanganese Industry Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The price of the ferromanganese main - contract decreased by 1.1%, and the spread between Inner Mongolia and the main - contract increased by 66 yuan/ton [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost remained unchanged, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia remained the same [6]. Supply and Demand - The ferromanganese production decreased by 5.4%, and the demand decreased slightly by 0.2% [6]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 13.9%, and the average available days decreased by 7.0% [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel industry presents a structure of high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and expected demand recovery. It is about to face the seasonal off - season and the possibility of weakening manufacturing demand (exports). The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - This week, the daily average iron ore production has peaked and declined, while the port clearance volume has slightly increased. It is expected that the iron ore production will remain at a high level in the short term. The iron ore is slightly de - stocked under high iron ore production, and the steel mill inventory remains low. The terminal demand of finished products determines the sustainability of high - level iron ore production. It is expected that the iron ore will oscillate in the short term [4]. Silicon and Manganese Industry - For silicon iron, the daily production has declined, the supply pressure has been gradually relieved, and the factory inventory has gradually decreased, but the overall inventory is still at a medium - high level. For silicon manganese, the production is accelerating to decline, the supply and demand contradiction is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate, stabilize, and rebound [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - The coke and coking coal futures showed a weak oscillating trend last week. The supply - demand pattern is still loose in the short term. It is recommended to short the 2509 contracts of coke and coking coal at high prices and continue to hold the arbitrage strategy of long hot - rolled coils and short coke/coking coal [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of most steel products decreased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract price decreased by 36 yuan/ton. The cost of some steel products decreased, and the profit of most steel products increased [1]. - **Production**: The daily average iron ore production remained unchanged at 245.6 tons, the production of five major steel products decreased by 5.8 tons (- 0.7%), the rebar production increased by 3.0 tons (1.3%), and the hot - rolled coil production decreased by 8.4 tons (- 2.6%) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 45.4 tons (- 3.1%), the rebar inventory decreased by 33.8 tons (- 5.2%), and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 17.6 tons (- 4.8%) [1]. - **Demand**: The daily average construction material trading volume decreased by 0.3 tons (- 3.1%), the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 68.6 tons (8.1%), the apparent demand for rebar increased by 46.4 tons (21.7%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 20.0 tons (6.5%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of most iron ore varieties decreased. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 8.8 yuan/ton (- 1.1%), and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased by 8.0 yuan/ton (- 1.0%). The basis of some varieties increased significantly [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 95.1 tons (- 3.9%), and the global shipment volume decreased by 21.5 tons (- 0.7%) [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average iron ore production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.9 tons (- 0.4%), and the 45 - port daily average port clearance volume increased by 8.7 tons (2.8%) [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 174.8 tons (- 1.2%), and the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills increased by 2.2 tons (0.0%) [4]. Silicon and Manganese Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese increased slightly. The closing price of the silicon iron main contract increased by 26.0 yuan/ton (0.5%), and the closing price of the silicon manganese main contract increased by 12.0 yuan/ton (0.2%) [5]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost of some regions remained stable, and the production profit of some regions increased or remained unchanged [5]. - **Supply**: The production of silicon iron decreased by 0.9 tons (- 5.4%), and the production of silicon manganese decreased by 0.9 tons (- 5.4%). The start - up rates of both decreased [5]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese remained relatively stable [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample silicon iron enterprises decreased by 1.0 tons (- 11.8%), and the inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises increased by 2.5 tons (13.9%) [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal decreased. For example, the price of first - class wet - quenched coke in Shanxi decreased by 50 yuan/ton (- 3.84%), and the price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) decreased by 20 yuan/ton (- 1.9%) [6]. - **Supply**: The coke production increased slightly, and the coking coal production remained at a relatively high level. The domestic coal mines continued to resume production, and the Mongolian customs clearance volume increased from a low level [6]. - **Demand**: The iron ore production showed signs of peaking and declining, and the downstream users' replenishment was mainly on - demand [6]. - **Inventory**: The coke inventory in coking plants continued to decline, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill inventory was low. The coking coal inventory in mines continued to accumulate, and the downstream inventory was at a low level [6].