装置检修动态:华东一套150万吨PTA装置目前已投料重启,该装置5.6附近停车检修。华东一套300万吨PTA装置已于近日停车检 修,预计10天附近。 PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 4000 5200 300 100 4200 3000 -100 -300 3200 2000 2024- 2024- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2025- 2025- 2023- 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2024-07 2024-09 05 0d 01 05 09 01 05 01 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 =DTY现金流 -FDY现金流 800 切片现金流 涤短现金流 600 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, commodity sentiment has improved, domestic PTA production capacity supply has contracted, port inventory has declined, and a large number of warehouse receipts are being canceled. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, and the profit margins of alkyl transfer and TDP are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains at around $90. In July, bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle. The port inventory in the market has decreased, and polyester replenishment has improved under the weakening basis. The basis of PTA has rebounded from 0 to 30. The maintenance of mainstream PTA factories has significantly boosted the market [2]. - For ethylene glycol, coal prices have rebounded, ethylene glycol prices have increased, and macro - sentiment has improved significantly. Overseas ethylene glycol plants, especially those in Saudi Arabia, have continuously postponed maintenance, which may have a significant impact on the future market. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. Polyester production and sales have weakened, and polyester has entered the maintenance cycle. Due to the rapid increase in polyester prices, the downstream weaving profit has shrunk, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has a certain negative impact on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - INE crude oil decreased from 504.3 yuan/barrel on July 22, 2025, to 503.7 yuan/barrel on July 23, 2025, a decrease of 0.60 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC decreased from 1129.2 yuan/ton to 1123.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.64 yuan/ton. PTA/SC decreased from 1.3081 to 1.3069, a decrease of 0.0012. CFR China PX decreased from 843 to 842, a decrease of 1. The PX - naphtha spread increased from 270 to 276, an increase of 6 [2]. - The PTA main contract futures price decreased from 4794 yuan/ton to 4784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The PTA spot price increased from 4775 yuan/ton to 4810 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee increased from 212.1 yuan/ton to 240.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.3 yuan/ton. The disk processing fee decreased from 246.1 yuan/ton to 244.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.7 yuan/ton. The main contract basis remained unchanged at 2 [2]. - The MEG main contract futures price decreased from 4447 yuan/ton to 4436 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton. MEG - naphtha decreased from (81.77) yuan/ton to (82.96) yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.2 yuan/ton. MEG domestic price increased from 4490 yuan/ton to 4501 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton. The main contract basis decreased from 62 to 58, a decrease of 4 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Conditions - The PX start - up rate remained unchanged at 77.74%. The PTA start - up rate remained unchanged at 80.59%. The MEG start - up rate increased from 57.35% to 57.48%, an increase of 0.13%. The polyester load remained unchanged at 87.01% [2]. Polyester Product Data - For polyester filament, POY150D/48F increased from 6530 to 6595, an increase of 65. POY cash flow increased from (307) to (275), an increase of 32. FDY150D/96F increased from 6750 to 6875, an increase of 125. FDY cash flow increased from (587) to (495), an increase of 92. DTY150D/48F increased from 7765 to 7785, an increase of 20. DTY cash flow decreased from (272) to (285), a decrease of 13. The filament production and sales rate decreased from 105% to 84%, a decrease of 21% [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6640 to 6650, an increase of 10. The staple fiber cash flow decreased from 153 to 130, a decrease of 23. The staple fiber production and sales rate increased from 48% to 55%, an increase of 7% [2]. - For polyester chips, semi - bright chips increased from 5835 to 5855, an increase of 20. The chip cash flow decreased from (102) to (115), a decrease of 13. The chip production and sales rate increased from 82% to 128%, an increase of 46% [2]. Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China has been restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6. A 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China has been shut down for maintenance recently, with an expected maintenance period of around 10 days [2].

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Upward [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Bullish [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - Soda ash: Bullish [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 5-year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 10-year Treasury Bonds: Rebound [4] - Gold: Bullish sideways [6] - Silver: Bullish [6] - Pulp: Sideways with a bullish bias [6] - Logs: Bullish sideways [6] - Soybean oil: Sideways correction [6] - Palm oil: Sideways correction [6] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways correction [8] - Soybean meal: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Rapeseed meal: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Soybean No. 2: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Live pigs: Sideways with a bearish bias [8] - Rubber: Sideways [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: On the sidelines [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: Sideways with a bearish bias [10] Core Views - The anti-involution policy has boosted the sentiment of the black market, but the long-term supply-demand surplus pattern of iron ore remains unchanged. The coking coal and coke market is expected to be bullish in the short term, and the steel and glass markets are supported by macro and policy factors. The stock index futures market shows a mixed trend, and the bond market is expected to rebound slightly. The precious metals market is expected to be bullish, and the pulp and log markets are expected to be bullish sideways. The oil and fat market may correct in the short term, and the agricultural products market shows a mixed trend. The soft commodities market is expected to be sideways, and the polyester market is on the sidelines [2][4][6][8][10] Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: The global iron ore shipment volume increased, and the supply is still abundant. The iron ore port inventory increased slightly, and the short-term fundamentals are acceptable. The long-term supply is expected to increase, and the demand is relatively low. The price has broken through the previous high and is expected to be bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: After the second round of price increases, the cost pressure of coke remains, and the market is expected to be bullish. The current fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to be bullish in the short term. The coking plant's operation is stable, and the supply is slightly tight. The downstream demand is weak, but the steel mill's procurement enthusiasm has increased [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The anti-involution policy has boosted the supply-side sentiment, and the steel industry's stable growth expectation has pushed up the market sentiment. The construction material demand has declined in the off-season, but the profit of the five major steel products is acceptable, and the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. The total demand is expected to be low, and the price is supported by macro and policy factors [2] - Glass: The anti-involution trading may continue, and the macro environment is neutral to bullish. The demand for glass deep processing orders has weakened, but the speculative demand is strong. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure remains. The downstream inventory is low, but the rigid demand has not recovered. The long-term demand is difficult to increase significantly, and the price is expected to be bullish in the short term [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.67%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.28%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.01%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.92%. The construction materials and engineering machinery sectors saw capital inflows, while the education and banking sectors saw capital outflows. The European leaders' visit to China and the stable LPR have boosted the market sentiment. The market risk aversion has eased, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the stock index [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond increased by 1bp, and the market interest rate was stable. The central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 5.55 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to rebound slightly, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds [4] Precious Metals Industry - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional real interest rate to central bank gold purchases. The currency, financial, and hedging attributes of gold are prominent. The US debt problem and the trade tension have supported the price of gold. The Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may be short-term disturbances, and the price is expected to be bullish sideways [6] - Silver: The price of silver is expected to be bullish. The inflation data shows resilience, and the market uncertainty before the new tariff deadline has increased the demand for hedging funds. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation in September has supported the price of silver [6] Light Industry - Pulp: The spot market price of pulp is rising, but the cost is falling, which weakens the support for the price. The papermaking industry's profitability is low, and the demand is in the off-season. The anti-involution policy has boosted the market sentiment, and the price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias [6] - Logs: The daily出库 volume of logs has increased, and the cost has risen, which strengthens the support for the price. The supply pressure is not large, and the anti-involution policy has boosted the market sentiment. The price is expected to be bullish sideways [6] Oil and Fat Industry - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in June, but the inventory increased. The export may slow down in July. The production of US biodiesel is increasing, which supports the demand for soybean oil. The domestic inventory of the three major oils is rising, and the supply is abundant. The demand is in the off-season, but the biodiesel expectation has boosted the price. The price may correct in the short term [6][8] Agricultural Products Industry - Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1: The estimated yield of US soybeans has been reduced, but the end-of-year inventory has increased. The growth of US soybeans is good, and the consumption of soybean meal is expected to increase. The domestic supply of soybeans is abundant, and the price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the price has risen slightly but is expected to decline. The supply of live pigs is increasing, and the consumption demand is restricted by high temperatures. The slaughtering enterprise's operating rate is expected to decline slightly [8] Soft Commodities Industry - Rubber: The raw material supply of natural rubber is tight due to rainfall, and the price has risen. The tire industry's capacity utilization rate has recovered, but the growth is restricted by the market demand. The inventory of natural rubber is increasing, and the price is expected to be sideways [10] Polyester Industry - PX: The geopolitical situation has eased, which has pressured the oil price. The short-term supply of PX is tight, and the price follows the oil price [10] - PTA: The cost is sideways, and the supply has increased. The downstream polyester factory's operating rate has decreased slightly, and the medium-term supply-demand is expected to weaken. The price follows the cost in the short term [10] - MEG: The recent arrival volume is small, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The terminal demand is weak, and the supply pressure has eased. The medium-term supply-demand is expected to be balanced. The cost has rebounded, and the price is expected to be bullish sideways [10] - PR: The cost is supportive, but the downstream demand is rigid. The polyester bottle sheet market is expected to be sorted out narrowly [10] - PF: The support is weak, and the industry supply pressure is large. The polyester staple fiber market is expected to be sideways with a bearish bias [10]

| 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6862 | 4780 | 4410 | 6432 | 512.3 | | 涨跌 | 6810 | 36 | 34 | 60 | -3.5 | | 涨跌幅 | 52 | 0.76% | 0.78% | 0.94% | -0.68% | | 月差 | PX9-1 | PTA9-1 | MEG9-1 | PF8-9 | SC8-9 | | 昨日收盘价 | 92 | 16 | 3 | 16 | 25.8 | | 前日收盘价 | 140 | 52 | 16 | 40 | 16.2 | | 涨跌 | -48 | -36 | -13 | -24 | 9.6 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | PTA 华东（元/吨） | MEG 现货 | 石脑油 MOPJ | Dated 布伦特 (美 | | | 金/吨） | | | | 金/桶) | | 昨日价格 | 842.33 | 4782 | 4467 | 572.88 | 70 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Views - **PX**: Unilateral prices are expected to be moderately strong with a bullish spread between the September and January contracts. Suggest rolling long positions in the PX calendar spread, and also pay attention to the strategy of going long on PX and short on EB/EG [3][5]. - **PTA**: Due to weak downstream demand and cost - related factors, TA prices will fluctuate. The spread between the September and January contracts should be traded within the range of 20 - 70. PTA is expected to have a slight inventory build - up, and the basis may stabilize and rebound. Consider strategies such as going long on PTA and short on PF [7]. - **MEG**: The September - January spread should reduce positions. Unilateral prices should be traded within the range of 4250 - 4450. The basis and spread suggest exiting the calendar spread long positions in the short - term. The upside for the unilateral price is limited [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PX - **Valuation and Profit**: Unilateral prices are moderately strong, and the 9 - 1 spread rebounds. The gasoline crack spread declines, and the Asian aromatics blending demand weakens. The toluene disproportionation profit is decent, and the PX - MX spread remains high [21][34][44]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic production capacity utilization slightly decreases, and attention should be paid to potential maintenance at Tianjin Petrochemical in late July. Overseas, some plants have restarts and shutdowns. The apparent consumption in May was 355 tons, and the maintenance loss in July decreases. The import volume in May rebounded to 773,000 tons [55][59][64]. - **Inventory**: The monthly inventory in June decreased to 4.35 million tons [83]. PTA - **Valuation and Profit**: The calendar spread long positions should take profit. The basis rebounds from the bottom, and the processing fee is at a low level, with weakening profits in the polyester segment [94][104]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate remains stable at 79.7%. Pay attention to the commissioning progress of Sanfangxiang's new plant. The export volume in May decreased significantly to 270,000 tons, and is expected to rebound in June and July. The inventory has increased [107][115][135]. MEG - **Valuation and Profit**: Unilateral valuation is in a range - bound market, and the spread weakens with limited downside. The profits in each segment decline month - on - month, and MTO and ethylene - purchased MEG production are in severe losses [141][149]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate decreased month - on - month. The import volume in June was 620,000 tons, and is expected to remain the same in July. The import profit is generally low, the visible inventory is low, and the invisible inventory has been increasing [156][160][167]. Polyester Segment - **Valuation and Profit**: No specific information on valuation and profit is provided. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate is 88.5% (- 0.3%). The production of polyester has increased by 8% year - on - year. The inventory pressure of filament yarn has increased significantly, while the inventory of staple fiber and bottle chips is acceptable [171][178][180].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Weekly Summary**: PX and PTA both showed weak consolidation this week. For PX, after the impact of the emergency was digested, the support from the cost side weakened, and with insufficient supply - side positives and weakening downstream demand expectations, the market sentiment was bearish. For PTA, after the disappearance of cost - side drivers, the fundamentals could not sustain, and the supply - demand pattern deteriorated, with processing fees and spot basis dropping [9]. - **Market Forecast**: Crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate. PX supply will remain relatively stable with minor changes, and PX is expected to trade in the range of 6,500 - 6,850 yuan/ton. PTA supply will face pressure from new capacity, and it will likely trade in the range of 4,550 - 4,850 yuan/ton. The recommendation is to remain on the sidelines [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Views 3.1.1 Weekly Summary - **PX**: After the shock of the emergency, the cost support from crude oil weakened. Although there are still some maintenance plans this month and social inventories are at a historical low, with insufficient supply - side positives and weakening downstream demand expectations, the overall market sentiment is bearish [9]. - **PTA**: After the disappearance of cost - side drivers, the fundamentals could not continue to drive the market. Polyester production cuts have led to a decline in operating rates, and new capacity on the supply side has put pressure on the supply - demand balance. Processing fees have fallen below 200 yuan/ton, and the spot basis has dropped rapidly [9]. 3.1.2 Market Forecast - **Crude Oil**: With obvious bottom support and weakening upper - end demand and continuous trade issues, crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate [10]. - **PX**: Chinese PX supply is relatively stable, with some minor adjustments in maintenance schedules. Asian PX supply will also remain generally stable. PX is expected to trade in the range of 6,500 - 6,850 yuan/ton [10]. - **PTA**: Newly commissioned capacity in East China will bring pressure to the supply side. PTA is expected to trade in the range of 4,550 - 4,850 yuan/ton [10]. - **Polyester**: Production cuts have been fully implemented, and there are no new cuts in the short term. The operating rate is expected to increase slightly next week [10]. - **Weaving**: In the off - season, there is a lack of new orders, and the market shows no improvement [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Remain on the sidelines [10]. 3.2 Price Situation 3.2.1 PX - **Futures**: Prices fluctuated within a range, with the closing price of the main contract on July 11 at 6,694 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (0.33%) from July 4, and the settlement price at 6,720 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.09%) [13][15]. - **Spot**: After a narrow - range increase, prices turned down. From July 7 - 11, the average basis of the main contract was 56 yuan/ton, and the average domestic spot price was 6,772 yuan/ton, down 128.2 yuan/ton (- 1.86%) from the previous period [16][18]. 3.2.2 PTA - **Futures**: With weakening demand, prices fluctuated at a low level. The closing price of the main contract on July 11 was 4,700 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.21%) from July 4, and the settlement price was 4,710 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (- 0.59%) [20][22]. - **Spot**: Trading was mainly between traders, with sporadic replenishment by polyester factories. The average daily trading volume was around 2 - 3 million tons. From July 6 - 12, the average basis of the main contract was 55 yuan/ton, the average CIF price in the Chinese market was 607 US dollars/ton, down 23.8 US dollars/ton (- 3.92%) from the previous period, and the average spot price in the East China market was 4,761.6 yuan/ton, down 170.4 yuan/ton (- 3.46%) [23][25]. 3.3 Device Operation Conditions 3.3.1 PX Devices - **Domestic Changes**: Many domestic PX devices have different operating loads, such as Ningbo Daxie operating at 60% capacity, and some devices in Sheng Hong Refining & Chemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical operating at 85 - 90% capacity [30]. - **Asian Other Regions**: Some devices in Asian other regions have restarted or adjusted their operating rates, such as Pertamina in Indonesia restarting from a shutdown and some Japanese and Korean devices having maintenance or unexpected shutdowns [32][33]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate remained relatively stable, with 83.00% from July 1 - 7 and 83.13% from July 8 - 14 [34]. 3.3.2 PTA Devices - **Device Changes**: Some PTA devices such as Ningbo Taihua and Hainan Yisheng are under maintenance, and a new 3.2 - million - ton device in East China plans to put 1.6 - million - ton capacity into operation recently and another 1.6 - million - ton capacity in August [37]. - **Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate increased by 1.22% due to the resumption of some devices [38]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis 3.4.1 Cost - **Crude Oil**: Investors are concerned about the results of the tariff negotiations between the US and key trading partners. WTI crude oil's futures settlement price on July 14 was 66.98 US dollars/barrel, down 0.95 US dollars/barrel from July 7, and Brent crude oil's was 69.21 US dollars/barrel, down 0.37 US dollars/barrel. The weekly average prices of WTI and Brent crude oil increased by 0.77 US dollars/barrel and 1.13 US dollars/barrel respectively compared to last week [43][45][47]. - **Naphtha**: Demand in Asia, especially in China, is strong, with both supply and demand sides being robust. The average weekly price of CFR Japan naphtha is 591.40 US dollars/ton, and the average weekly production profit is 27.23 US dollars/ton [50][52]. - **PX**: After the impact of oil prices weakened, PX prices remained stagnant. The average weekly price of CFR China Main Port was 846.6 US dollars/ton, down 0.28% from the previous week, and the average weekly price of FOB South Korea was 822.6 US dollars/ton, down 0.27% [55]. 3.4.2 Supply - **PX Processing Margin**: Although there were unexpected situations with overseas devices, the impact on processing fees was limited. The weekly average of PXN was 253.79 yuan/ton, down 7.51% from the previous period, and the PX - MX margin rebounded after a decline, with a weekly average of 96.50 US dollars/ton [56][58]. - **PTA Processing Margin**: Profits have been compressed to below 200 yuan/ton. The average spot processing fee from July 8 - 14 was 177.66 yuan/ton, compared with 298.31 yuan/ton last week [59][61]. - **Inventory**: PTA has entered the inventory accumulation stage. As of July 11, the social inventory was 4.397 million tons, up 12,000 tons from the previous week, with a growth rate of 0.95%. PTA factory inventory days decreased by 0.09 days, and polyester factory inventory days increased by 0.05 days [66][68]. 3.4.3 Demand - **Polyester Product Prices**: The prices of polyester products such as semi - dull POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F have declined. The average price of polyester bottle chips in the East China region was 5,969.00 yuan/ton, down 1.24% from the previous reporting period [74]. - **Market Demand**: The weakness of the market demand side is becoming more prominent. The average weekly polyester production and sales rate from July 8 - 14 was estimated at 50%. Polyester factory inventory has increased, and the weaving comprehensive operating rate has continued to decline [75][80].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain fluctuated and declined following costs. The EG futures and spot prices decreased, with the EG main - contract closing price at 4322 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan/ton, - 0.80% from the previous trading day) and the EG East China spot price at 4399 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton, - 0.14% from the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis was 68 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The ethylene - based EG production profit was - 54 dollars/ton (up 4 dollars/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was 47 yuan/ton (up 16 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the East China main port was 55.3 tons (down 2.7 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.1 tons (down 6.1 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 9.6 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. This week, the planned arrival at the East China main port is 4.5 tons, while the planned arrival at the secondary port is concentrated at 6.5 tons [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic EG production is expected to increase as the maintenance period has passed, and the load will gradually return to a high level in July. Overseas, the supply is expected to be loose as overseas plants restart. On the demand side, it is expected to be weak due to high terminal inventory and low restocking willingness during the off - season. The short - term supply - demand structure is still good, but the inventory accumulation pressure will increase in late July [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents the EG East China spot price and basis, with the EG main - contract closing price at 4322 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan/ton, - 0.80% from the previous trading day) and the EG East China spot price at 4399 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton, - 0.14% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis at 68 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The ethylene - based EG production profit was - 54 dollars/ton (up 4 dollars/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was 47 yuan/ton (up 16 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - Not elaborated in the given text, only mentioned in the directory [4] Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Not elaborated in the given text, only mentioned in the directory [4] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the East China main port was 55.3 tons (down 2.7 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.1 tons (down 6.1 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 9.6 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. This week, the planned arrival at the East China main port is 4.5 tons, while the planned arrival at the secondary port is concentrated at 6.5 tons [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry is currently in a situation where demand is weak during the off - season, and downstream negative feedback is continuously transmitted to the upstream market, suppressing the prices of polyester products [6]. - Different products in the polyester industry chain have different supply - demand and price trends. For example, PX supply is still tight in the short term and is expected to oscillate with the cost side; PTA supply is expected to increase, and its processing fee is significantly compressed; MEG has an inventory accumulation expectation in August - September; short - fiber processing fees are expected to be strongly supported; and bottle - chip processing fees are also relatively strong [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies | Product | Logic Analysis | Trading Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | | PX&PTA | PX supply is still tight, with the Vietnamese NSRP 700,000 - ton PX device gradually resuming and the Thai THAI OIL 530,000 - ton PX device shut down for maintenance. PTA supply is expected to increase with device restarts and new installations. Downstream polyester and terminal operations are declining. | Unilateral: Oscillatory consolidation; Arbitrage: Long PX and short PTA; Option: Wait and see [4] | | MEG | Domestic and foreign devices are restarting, and the port inventory is currently low but has an inventory accumulation expectation in August - September. The downstream load is decreasing, but there is short - term market support due to the rebound in coal prices. | Unilateral: Oscillatory consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [4] | | PF | Short - fiber processing differentials are continuously widening, production and sales are average, and there are still production reduction plans in July. | Unilateral: Oscillatory consolidation; Arbitrage: Short PTA and long PF; Option: Wait and see [4] | | PR | Bottle - chip processing fees are strengthening, and production reduction measures are gradually being implemented. | Unilateral: Oscillatory consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [4] | 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Polyester Load and Terminal Operations**: As of Friday, the polyester load was 88.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7%. The Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing and weaving operations decreased by 7% and 4% respectively, and the dyeing operation remained at 67%. The fabric orders were weak, and terminal production reduction was accelerating [6]. - **Product - Specific Situations**: - **PX**: Domestic PX load remained basically stable, with a slight increase to 81.3% as of Friday. Overseas load decreased slightly. Long - process device profits narrowed, and short - process device profits fluctuated slightly [16]. - **PTA**: Social inventory increased slightly, and the basis and the September - January spread weakened significantly. Supply is expected to increase, and processing differentials have weakened to the lowest point of the year [18][20]. - **MEG**: Port inventory rebounded, supply increased, the basis weakened, and the September - January spread strengthened. Domestic and foreign device loads increased, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in August - September [22][25]. - **Polyester Products**: Long - filament inventory accumulated, short - fiber profits expanded but downstream operations declined, and bottle - chip processing fees strengthened with production reduction measures being implemented [8][10][12]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **PX**: - **Price**: The report presents the price trends of Asian PX, naphtha, and Brent crude oil, etc. [34]. - **Spread and Profit**: It includes various spreads such as PX - Brent, PX - naphtha, and PX - MX, as well as theoretical profits [36][38]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic and overseas PX loads and the relationship between PX and PTA loads are shown [63][64]. - **PTA**: - **Profit**: It includes profits such as PTA's profit from crude oil, naphtha, and PX [74][75]. - **Supply and Demand**: PTA and polyester loads are presented [77]. - **Inventory**: PTA social inventory, polyester factory raw material inventory, PTA factory raw material inventory, and PTA warehouse receipts are included [79]. - **MEG**: - **Price**: It shows the prices of ethylene glycol spot, coal, methanol, and ethylene [81]. - **Spread**: It includes various spreads such as domestic and foreign spreads, regional spreads, and EO - 1.4EG spread [83]. - **Profit**: It includes profits from oil - based, MTO, ethylene monomer, and coal - based production of ethylene glycol [94][96]. - **Polyester**: - **Profit**: It includes the average profit of long - filaments, short - fiber profit, polyester weighted profit, bottle - chip processing profit, and slice profit [99]. - **Supply**: It shows the loads of polyester, bottle - chips, long - filaments, and short - fibers, as well as inventory days [101][102]. - **Demand**: It includes the loads and inventories of pure - polyester yarn, polyester - cotton yarn, and fabric, as well as export data and domestic consumption data [105][108][109].

| | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/7/11 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/7/9 | 2025/7/10 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 519.7 | 522.5 | 2. 80 | 成交情况: PTA:华东市场PTA价格4746元/吨,跌2元/吨。聚酯工 | | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 941.3 | 944.9 | 3. 65 | 厂官宣继续减产,PTA需求利空继续发酵,日内PTA基 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1.2492 | 1. 2489 | -0. 0004 | 差继续走弱,加之国际油价对PTA成本提振效果一般, 日内PTA现货微幅下跌。 | | | CFR中国PX | 850 | 852 | 2 | | | PX | | | | | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 264 | 254 | - ...

Market Overview - The PTA spot market showed improved trading sentiment compared to the previous day, with increased bids from polyester factories and a continued weak basis, leading to an expanded decline in the afternoon [1] - Main suppliers reported sales, with transactions this week and next week in the range of 4780 to 4820 yuan/ton, while the mainstream spot basis is at 09+91 [1] - As of July 8, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange had 45,812 PTA futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 9,384 from the previous trading day [1] Inventory and Supply Chain - This week, PTA factory inventory stands at 3.95 days, a decrease of 0.14 days from last week and 0.29 days from the same period last year [1] - Polyester factory PTA raw material inventory is at 7.1 days, down 0.35 days from last week and 1.08 days from the same period last year [1] Institutional Insights - Donghai Futures noted that while the PTA basis continues to weaken, there has been a partial recovery in transactions, with liquidity issues easing significantly [2] - The port inventory has increased, and with the cancellation of warehouse receipts and increased factory stocking, the upward impact of spot prices on the futures market has become limited [2] - Dadi Futures indicated that the polyester industry chain remains stable upstream, while expectations of declining downstream loads suggest profits will further shift downstream [2] - The oil price remains strong, and with downstream production cuts, the strategy of shorting PX/PTA based on Brent price differentials continues, although the potential for significant movement is limited [2] - As the peak season approaches in late August, there may be opportunities for PTA large manufacturers to adjust loads to expand profits, with current PTA processing fees being neutral [2]