化工日报 | 2025-05-21 聚酯减产意向影响，EG震荡下跌 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4413元/吨（较前一交易日变动-62元/吨，幅度-1.39%），EG华东市场现货价 4510元/吨（较前一交易日变动-63元/吨，幅度-1.38%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）95元/吨（环比+3元/吨）。 周二乙二醇盘面弱势，受聚酯减产意向影响，需求环节存下修预期。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-19美元/吨（环比+3美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为229元/吨（环比 +5元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为74.3万吨（环比-0.8万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为66.4万吨（环比-2.8万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数6.4万吨，到港量偏少，但同时 聚酯工厂隐性库存下降，港口小幅去库；本周华东主港计划到港总数10.9万吨，中性。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，近期仓单量大幅增加，乙二醇现货流动性收紧，卫星等几套大装置仍存检修计划； 需求端，近端聚酯负荷高位提升，5月聚酯月均负荷或不降反升，需求端支撑，同时美国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical situation remains unclear and tariff negotiations by the US cause oil price fluctuations. PX supply in Asia tightens due to unplanned losses and scheduled maintenance, while demand exceeds expectations, leading to an expected inventory drawdown in the coming months. PTA prices are expected to follow cost trends with short - term strength as polyester maintains high开工率 and helps with PTA inventory reduction. Polyester bottle - chip market has limited trading volume with prices fluctuating. It is predicted that PX, PTA, and PR will all move in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On May 19, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $62.69/barrel (+0.32%), Brent crude oil was $65.54/barrel (+0.20%), naphtha spot price was $569.38/ton (+0.71%), isomeric xylene was $709.00/ton (-0.77%), and PX CFR China Main Port was $841.00/ton (+0.44%) [1] - **PTA**: CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4776 yuan/ton (+0.04%), settlement price was 4800 yuan/ton (0.00%), near - month contract closing price was 4970 yuan/ton (+0.49%), settlement price was 4966 yuan/ton (-0.08%), domestic PTA spot price was 4992 yuan/ton (-0.64%) [1] - **PX**: CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6752 yuan/ton (+0.12%), settlement price was 6788 yuan/ton (+0.24%), near - month contract closing price was 7020 yuan/ton (+0.26%), settlement price was 7020 yuan/ton (+0.26%), domestic PX spot price was 6874 yuan/ton (-2.04%) [1] - **PR**: CZCE PR main contract closing price was 6088 yuan/ton (+0.10%), settlement price was 6124 yuan/ton (+0.13%), near - month contract closing price was 5808 yuan/ton (+0.14%), settlement price was 5808 yuan/ton (+0.14%), East China polyester bottle - chip market price was 6100 yuan/ton (-0.16%), South China was 6200 yuan/ton (0.00%) [1] - **Downstream**: CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6665 yuan/ton (+0.23%), polyester chip was 6030 yuan/ton (-0.33%), bottle - grade chip was 6100 yuan/ton (-0.16%) [2] Operating Conditions - PX开工率 was 75.86% (+2.54 percentage points), PTA factory load rate was 74.41% (0.00 percentage points), polyester factory load rate was 91.12% (-0.02 percentage points), bottle - chip factory load rate was 85.13% (0.00 percentage points), and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate was 68.10% (0.00 percentage points) on May 19, 2025 [1] Production and Sales - Polyester filament sales rate was 28.00% (0.00 percentage points), polyester staple fiber sales rate was 46.00% (+10.00 percentage points), and polyester chip sales rate was 39.00% (+2.00 percentage points) on May 19, 2025 [1] Device Information - A 1.2 million - ton PTA device in the northwest is planned to restart between May 15 and 20 [2] Trading Strategy - TA2509 contract closed at 4776 yuan/ton (-0.50%) with a trading volume of 1.33 million hands; 2509 contract of PX closed at 6752 yuan/ton (-0.30%) with a trading volume of 30,950 hands; PR 2507 contract closed at 6088 yuan/ton (-0.46%) with a trading volume of 59,000 hands. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will move in a volatile manner [2]

PTA：聚酯减产负反馈下，PTA承压回落 MEG：多重利好兑现，MEG短期有回调预期 正信期货聚酯周报 20250519 作者：赵婷 审核：王艳红 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 投资咨询编号：Z0010675 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 数据来源：WIND,隆众 成本端：地缘局势缓和，且OPEC+加速增产，需求欠佳的压力仍存，预计油价短期偏弱运行。PX方面，PX加工 费偏低，浙石化更换催化剂，国内PX负荷再次下滑，PX供需尚可，受成本拖累明显，预计PX短期叫原油表现好。 供应端：PTA：四川能投和新疆中泰有重启计划，预计下周PTA产量提升。乙二醇：国产检修超预期增加，开 工率大幅下滑至61%附近，进口维持低位，国产产量与进口量双降预期。 需求端：下周聚酯负荷存下滑预期，装置检修与重启并存，但新装置负荷提升缓慢，且减产计划较多，如恒 力、金纶、中鲈等，预计下周聚酯产量小幅下滑。原料市场在利好消息的发酵影响下连续上涨，部分厂商担心 未来成本走高，故进行集中原料备货，下游原料补货气氛升温，部分厂商备货周期在6月中旬附近。后市来看 织造行业生产积极性较前期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry is currently in a state of recovery, with the polyester load continuing to increase. The short - term polyester industry chain is expected to remain strong, but there are risks associated with chasing high prices [1][3][4] - The PXN has rebounded significantly due to short - term market sentiment improvement and increased unplanned maintenance, while the PTA market has shown price rebounds and strong demand support [2] - The demand side of the polyester industry has improved, with the polyester start - up rate rising, and downstream orders are expected to improve after the tariff reduction between China and the United States [3] Summaries by Directory Price and Basis - The TA main contract spot basis is 205 yuan/ton (a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous period), and the PTA spot processing fee is 386 yuan/ton (an increase of 22 yuan/ton) [2] Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PXN was 280 dollars/ton the day before last (a month - on - month increase of 13 dollars/ton) and rose to 282 dollars/ton on Wednesday [2] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Not provided in the content Upstream PX and PTA Start - Up - In May, domestic PX maintenance devices will gradually restart, and supply is expected to increase. The PTA market is in a state of significant inventory reduction [2] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Not provided in the content Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester start - up rate is 94.2% (a month - on - month increase of 0.8%), and the polyester monthly average load in May may increase instead of decrease, exceeding market expectations [3] PF Detailed Data - The PF spot production profit is 23 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 70 yuan/ton) [3] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The bottle - chip spot processing fee is 356 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 70.37 yuan/ton), and the bottle - chip load remains high and stable [3]

化工日报 | 2025-05-15 市场情绪延续乐观，PXN大幅上涨 市场要闻与数据 5月14日，聚酯产业链商品全线上涨，MEG/PX/PTA/PF/PR主力合约分别上涨3.68%、2.96%、2.87%、3.02%、3.23%。 上涨的主要原因是：一方面近期宏观情绪较好，上个周末中美双方在瑞士日内瓦举行的会谈结果超预期，降低关 税对聚酯需求端利好明显，订单和长丝产销好转，同时原油价格反弹持稳，带动下游能化品整体反弹。 另外基本面方面，在聚酯高负荷的支撑下，PTA、MEG等聚酯原料4、5月连续去库，PTA更是连续两个月去库50 万吨附近，PX现货采购也偏紧；下游方面，PF和PR前几日在原料快速上涨中加工费压缩严重，周三PR主流供应商 缩减合约，因此涨幅高于原料。 市场分析 成本端，中美会谈结果超预期，在此宏观利好下，商品氛围整体明显回暖，原油价格大幅上涨，带动下游能化品 整体反弹。 汽油和芳烃方面，汽油裂解近期有所反弹，但季节性表现仍弱于前两年，后续随着汽油需求旺季到来可能会季节 性好转，但整体在新能源替代的背景下预计汽油裂解价差上涨空间有限。芳烃方面，今年的调油需求已不值得过 多的期待。国内外间歇性调油需求 ...

关税缓和刺激备货需求增长，PX、PTA短期或维持偏强运行 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 05月13日，PX 主力合约收6708.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.81%，基差 为-387.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4750.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.85%，基差 为-30.0元/吨。 成本端，05月13日，布油主力合约收盘64.99美元/桶。供应端，PX：中海油惠 州150万吨3月29日检修50天左右，扬子石化重整检修至5月上旬，PX有降负预 期，天津石化PX计划6-7月份检修，海南炼化计划4-5月检修，浙石化250万吨装 置已重启，盛虹炼化400万吨原计划4月检修，目前推迟至5月。PX国内装置开 工率为73%，亚洲开工率为67.9%。PTA：台化兴业150万吨5月6日检修，逸盛 大连225万吨计划4月26日检修6周，另375万吨4月21日重启。嘉兴石化150万吨 计划5月中检修10天左右，中泰石化120万吨计划5月中上复产。PTA开工率在 75.6%附近。聚酯开工率在94.2%附近。 贸易方面，中欧决定同步全面取消对相互交往的限制，且中美层面出现积极进 展，市场风险偏好提升，油价在OPEC+增产消 ...

作者：赵婷 审核：王艳红 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 投资咨询编号：Z0010675 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 PTA：原料强势支撑下，PTA偏暖震荡 MEG：供需格局尚可，MEG短期延续低位反弹 正信期货聚酯周报 20250512 | | | 元/吨 | | POY | FDY | DTY | 开工率 | 元/吨 | | | 元/吨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价格 | 5805 | 瓶片 | 价格 | 6525 | 6550 | 7775 | 92 | 长丝 | 价格 | 6385 | 短纤 | | 涨跌 | 1.49% | | 涨跌 | 1.56% | 0.77% | 0.97% | | | 涨跌 | 0.71% | | | 加工利润 | 5805 | | 利润 | -57.3167 | -248.983 | 41.6667 | | | 加工利润 | -193.983 | | | 利润涨跌 | 0.26% | | ...

化工日报 | 2025-05-08 成本端，五一假期期间，欧佩克+成员国同意将6月份的石油供应增加41.1万桶/日，这是继5月出人意料地大幅增产 后，该联盟连续第二个月加快供应恢复步伐，旨在惩罚那些违反配额、超额生产的成员国，原油供应压力持续。 汽油和芳烃方面，汽油裂解近期有所反弹，但季节性表现仍弱于前两年，后续随着汽油需求旺季到来可能会季节 性好转，但整体在新能源替代的背景下预计汽油裂解价差上涨空间有限。芳烃方面，今年的调油需求已不值得过 多的期待。国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以满足，限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。3~4月韩国出口到美 国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降，亚洲MX和甲苯与石脑油价差表现低迷，短流程装置仍处于亏损状态， 大部分 PX 工厂停止外采 MX 生产 PX，成本端支撑有限。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN193美元/吨(环比变动+2.50美元/吨）。近期低利润下日韩PX装置计划外检修/降负有所 增加，PXN低位反弹，但5月国内PX检修装置将陆续重启，供应预计有所增加，同时PTA5月检修依然较多，预计 PX平衡表将小幅累库。整体来看，当前PXN估值不高，下方仍有支撑，但在汽油弱 ...

PTA：假期终端减产预期下，PTA延续成本主导 MEG：向上动能不足，乙二醇延续震荡格局 正信期货聚酯周报 20250428 作者：赵婷 审核：王艳红 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 投资咨询编号：Z0010675 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net 产业链周度重要数据 | | 价格 | 变动 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI | 63.02 | -2.57% | 美元/桶 | 价格 | 涨跌 | 美元/吨 | | BRENT | 66.87 | -1.60% | 原油 | 581.75 | 2.47% | 石脑油 | | 价格 | 涨跌 | 美元/吨 | | --- | --- | --- | | 581.75 | 2.47% | 石脑油 | | 价格 | 641 | 美元/吨 | 价格 | 655.5 | 美元/吨 | 价格 | 752 | 美元/吨 | 价格 | 790 | 美元/吨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

观点：聚酯开工仍有韧性，驱动不足 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 戴一帆（Z0015428） 周燕勤（F03129302） 周嘉伟（F03133676） 聚酯周报观点 MEG 核心观点：驱动不足，区间震荡 南华聚酯周报20250427 【库存】华东港口库至77.5万吨，环比上期增加0.4万吨。 【装置】中石化武汉28w近期停车，预计持续半个月；内蒙古建元26w近期重启；内蒙古兖矿40w近期重启； 【观点】 本周EG价格在需求悲观与关税豁免消息扰动下低位震荡。基本面方面，供应端油降煤升，总负荷小幅上调至68.47%（+3.15%）；其中 ，乙烯制方面茂名石化、天沙停车；煤制兖矿、榆林化学、中昆提负，煤制负荷大幅上调至63.85%（+14%）。效益方面，受绝对价格 小幅反弹影响，各路线利润小幅修复。库存方面，本周到港集中，港口发货表现不佳，维持刚需，下周一港口显性库存预计大幅累库8 万吨左右。需求端，长丝开工下调，短纤瓶片提负，聚酯总负荷维持高位93.6%（-0.2%）。长丝节前存在促销行为，终端部分刚需采 购低位补货，长丝库存小幅去化，但FDY和DTY环节库存压力仍然明显。终端受关税事件影响， ...