Core Viewpoint - Beijing's 2024 fiscal budget shows stable growth in revenue and effective expenditure management, supporting the city's economic recovery and social stability [1][2]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - The city's general public budget revenue reached 637.27 billion yuan, an increase of 3.1%, with tax revenue accounting for 85.9% [2][3]. - General public budget expenditure totaled 839.65 billion yuan, growing by 5.3%, focusing on key areas such as education, employment, and healthcare [2][5]. Support for Economic Growth - The government implemented tax reductions and refunds exceeding 150 billion yuan to support technological innovation and manufacturing [3]. - New government bonds issued amounted to 121.6 billion yuan, funding major projects in infrastructure and housing [3]. Social Welfare Initiatives - The city introduced a universal childcare subsidy policy, adding nearly 19,000 new childcare places, with a 93% enrollment rate for eligible children [4]. - The minimum living guarantee was raised to 1,450 yuan per month, benefiting over 4 million people [5]. Budget Management and Efficiency - A reduction of 3.03 billion yuan in non-essential expenditures was achieved through strict budget management practices [6]. - The city adopted a comprehensive performance management system to enhance budget execution and monitoring [6][7].

Group 1 - The region's general public budget revenue and expenditure achieved a "double growth" for six consecutive months, with revenue at 964.55 billion and expenditure at 3359.72 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 3.2% and 5.9% respectively [1] - The successful hosting of the 2025 Guangxi Government Investment Fund high-quality development promotion and signing conference led to the signing of 30 sub-funds with a total subscribed scale of nearly 60 billion, indicating strong financial engagement [1] Group 2 - A total of 120 billion has been allocated to support a new round of industrial revitalization, along with 31.43 billion for artificial intelligence development, aiming to build a cross-border AI industry ecosystem [2] - Over 150 billion has been coordinated to advance water transport infrastructure construction, with additional funds allocated for highway and railway projects, demonstrating a commitment to improving transportation networks [2] - The region is actively utilizing policy opportunities to secure central long-term special bonds for key projects, with 346.73 billion in special bonds and 139.47 billion in "two heavy" funds allocated for infrastructure in education, healthcare, and urban renewal [2] Group 3 - Public spending on people's livelihoods reached 2671.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, with around 80% of general public budget expenditure dedicated to social welfare projects [3] - Significant increases in spending were noted in education (91.64 billion), transportation (42.93 billion), and health (42.2 billion), reflecting a focus on quality development in these sectors [3] - Environmental protection spending increased by 7.53 billion, supporting efforts to combat heavy metal pollution and enhance overall environmental quality [3]

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal characteristics of 2025 include expansion in total scale, front-loaded issuance rhythm, and differentiated structural features, which can explain some economic phenomena in the first half of the year [1][10][45]. Group 1: Fiscal Characteristics - Characteristic one is the expansion of total scale and differentiation in narrow and broad structures. The narrow fiscal deficit target rate of 4.0% is the upper limit of market expectations, with the target deficit scale increasing by 39.4% compared to 2024, marking the highest growth in the past decade [13][14][45]. - Characteristic two is the front-loaded fiscal rhythm and differentiation between central and local structures. Local governments have been actively issuing debt, but the contribution of infrastructure projects has not been significant. Central fiscal measures, including national bond issuance and "national subsidies," have been the main support for various economic segments [2][16][19]. - Characteristic three indicates that both narrow and broad fiscal revenues are influenced by lagging effects, PPI levels, and land market conditions, with growth rates lower than initial budget targets. This has contributed to the widening fiscal deficit in the first half of the year [22][23][24]. Group 2: Fiscal Revenue Expectations - Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, favorable conditions for fiscal revenue include potential improvements in nominal growth due to "anti-involution" policies, which may boost tax revenue. However, adverse factors include a slowdown in real estate sales and a potential decline in land revenue [24][25][26]. Group 3: Government Debt Supply - In the second half of 2025, the government is expected to net increase about 5.8 trillion yuan in various types of government debt. The net financing pressure for government debt in the second half is relatively small compared to the first half [27][28][29]. Group 4: Fiscal Expenditure Projections - Broad fiscal expenditure is primarily determined by the scale of bond issuance and revenue. The expected growth rates for broad fiscal expenditure in optimistic, neutral, and cautious scenarios are approximately 8.4%, 7.8%, and 7.0%, respectively, all higher than the previous year's 2.7% [30][31][32]. Group 5: Infrastructure Performance - Infrastructure performance in the second half of 2025 is expected to improve compared to the first half, driven by the acceleration of long-term national bond funding and the introduction of new policy financial tools [5][33][34]. Group 6: Diverse Fiscal Support Areas - Beyond infrastructure, fiscal support is increasingly diverse, including "national subsidies" to boost retail sales, potential nationwide child-rearing subsidies, urban renewal initiatives, and measures to address corporate debt [35][36][37]. Group 7: Fiscal and Tax System Reforms - The focus of fiscal and tax system reforms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period will include tax reforms, such as shifting consumption tax collection to local levels, and adjustments in the distribution of fiscal powers between central and local governments [39][40][41]. Group 8: Asset Pricing Implications - The fiscal clues for the second half of the year are expected to influence asset pricing, particularly benefiting construction-related industries and emerging sectors like low-altitude and digital economies [43].

Core Viewpoint - The French government, led by Prime Minister François Béru, is set to announce a significant fiscal deficit reduction plan, which includes approximately €40 billion ($47 billion) in spending cuts and tax increases aimed at narrowing the largest budget gap in the Eurozone [1]. Group 1: Fiscal Measures - The proposed budget plan for 2026 focuses on both revenue generation and expenditure reduction, facing substantial resistance in both areas [4]. - The government aims to restore "tax fairness" by closing loopholes in the tax code rather than implementing broad tax increases on households and businesses [4]. - The plan includes a commitment to withdraw a corporate tax increase aimed at large companies, which complicates the fiscal balance challenge [4]. Group 2: Economic Context - France's fiscal difficulties have impacted the bond market, leading to increased borrowing costs, with the five-year government bond yield nearing the highest level in the Eurozone and the 30-year yield reaching its highest since 2011 at 4.2140% [1][2]. - The public spending as a percentage of GDP in France stands at 57%, which is seven percentage points higher than Germany, indicating a significant fiscal burden [4]. Group 3: Political Challenges - The lack of a majority in the National Assembly complicates Béru's ability to push through deep fiscal reforms, echoing the challenges faced by his predecessor, Michel Barnier [3]. - The government's limited control over local authorities and the social security system hampers its ability to reduce costs effectively, as these areas have seen expenditure growth outpace central finances [5]. - Political and fiscal uncertainties are eroding confidence among businesses and households, putting pressure on investment and consumption, with France's economic growth expected to lag behind the Eurozone average this year [5].

Group 1 - The fiscal policy plays a crucial role in stabilizing growth amid increasing external uncertainties [1] - In the first half of this year, the issuance of new special bonds reached approximately 2.1607 trillion yuan, a growth of about 44.7% compared to 1.4935 trillion yuan in the same period of 2024 [2] - The government plans to arrange 4.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year, focusing on investment construction, land acquisition, and settling local government debts [2] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need to effectively utilize various government investment tools and optimize the direction of central budget investments [4] - Infrastructure investment grew by 5.6% year-on-year from January to May, indicating a strong performance [4] - Analysts expect a further acceleration in the issuance of special bonds in the third quarter, which will serve as a significant support for stabilizing growth [4]

Group 1 - The German government cabinet approved the 2025 budget draft and the 2026 budget framework on October 24 [1] - The new budget focuses on increasing investment to stimulate economic growth, with planned investments of €115.7 billion in 2025 and approximately €123.6 billion in 2026, significantly higher than the €74.5 billion investment in 2024 [2] - The Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, Christian Lindner, stated that Germany will maintain annual investments of around €120 billion until 2029 [2] Group 2 - The budget draft includes a medium-term financial plan indicating that defense spending will reach 3.5% of GDP by 2029, with an estimated defense budget of €95 billion in 2025 and €162 billion by 2029 [3] - The previous German government collapsed in November last year, which delayed the approval of the 2025 budget, leading to the use of a temporary budget since 2025 [3] - The 2026 budget framework is scheduled for discussion in the Bundestag in September, with approval expected in November and the Bundesrat in December [3]

丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 收入改善有波折，支出放缓待发力 ——5 月财政数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 1-5 月财政收支有以下特点：1）财政收入累计降幅收窄，但税收修复边际有所放缓； 2）个人所得税延续修复，地产相关税收拖累加剧；3）财政支出节奏边际放缓，基建支出降幅 走扩；4）政府性基金收入降幅走扩、支出放缓。往前看，若下半年国内外形势出现新的变化， 财政应对主要有三条：1）加速存量，重点关注用于项目建设的专项债发行是否提速；2）调整 存量，重点关注财政资金对于地产相关、促消费、保民生等领域的支持和补贴力度；3）储备增 量，包括政府债限额空间、央行利润上缴、财政结余资金、类财政工具、新增政府债额度等。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 宋筱筱 蒋佳榛 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490520080011 SAC：S0490524080005 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BVZ974 2025 年 6 月 20 日，财政部公布 2025 年 1-5 月财政数据：1-5 月，全国一般公共预算收入 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first five months of 2025, highlighting a stable fiscal income but an expansion in fiscal expenditure to support economic stability and demand growth [1]. Fiscal Revenue - National general public budget revenue for January to May reached 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, which is a slight improvement from the previous four months' decline of 0.4% [1]. - Government fund budget revenue was 15,483 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 6.9%, which is a slight increase in the decline compared to the previous four months' 6.7% [1]. - Tax revenue, which is a key component of fiscal income, totaled 79,156 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, but this decline is less severe than the previous four months' 2.1% [1]. - Corporate income tax revenue for the first five months was 21,826 billion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year, although the decline is narrowing as industrial profits have turned positive [1][2]. Factors Affecting Revenue - The real estate market remains sluggish, leading to a decline in related tax revenues, such as deed tax and land value-added tax, which experienced double-digit decreases [2]. - Complex foreign trade conditions, including trade wars, negatively impacted fiscal revenue, with significant declines in import VAT, consumption tax, and customs duties [2]. - Low prices have also reduced nominal fiscal income, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) falling by 3.3% year-on-year in May 2025, affecting tax bases like VAT [3]. Tax Revenue Performance - Despite overall tax revenue declines, certain sectors showed strong performance, particularly in manufacturing and services. For instance, tax revenue from railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace manufacturing grew by 28.8%, while computer and communication equipment manufacturing increased by 11.9% [4]. - In the service sector, tax revenue from cultural, sports, and entertainment industries rose by 7.8%, and the information transmission and software services sector saw a 10% increase [4]. Non-Tax Revenue - Non-tax revenue for the general public budget reached 17,467 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, primarily driven by asset activation [5]. Fiscal Expenditure - Total general public budget expenditure for January to May was 112,953 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, which is significantly higher than the revenue growth rate [6]. - Key expenditure areas such as social security and employment saw growth rates of 9.2% and 6.7%, respectively, indicating strong support for public welfare [6]. - Government fund budget expenditure increased by 16% to 32,125 billion yuan during the same period [7]. Government Bond Financing - Net financing from government bonds reached 631 billion yuan in the first five months, an increase of 381 billion yuan year-on-year, supporting fiscal expenditure expansion [8].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance reported a slight decline in national public budget revenue for the first five months of the year, with a total revenue of approximately 9.66 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% [1]. Revenue Breakdown - Tax revenue amounted to about 7.92 trillion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to the previous months [1][2]. - Non-tax revenue reached 1.75 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, although this growth has slowed compared to earlier months [1][6]. Tax Categories - Domestic value-added tax (VAT) was approximately 3.09 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, aligning with stable growth in industrial output and service production [2]. - Corporate income tax totaled 2.18 trillion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year, indicating a trend of "increased revenue without increased profit" among businesses [2]. - Export tax rebates were 1.08 trillion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year, reflecting resilient export performance [2]. - Personal income tax reached 657.2 billion yuan, with an 8.2% year-on-year increase, indicating strong growth in individual earnings [2][4]. Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector showed significant tax revenue growth, with railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace manufacturing increasing by 28.8%, and computer and communication equipment manufacturing by 11.9% [6]. - The cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors saw a tax revenue increase of 7.8%, driven by recovering consumer demand [6]. - The digital economy and related sectors also performed well, with tax revenue from information transmission and software services growing by 10%, and scientific research and technical services by 12.7% [6]. Expenditure Insights - Total public budget expenditure for the first five months was approximately 11.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, indicating strong government spending despite declining revenue [6]. - The issuance of local special bonds accelerated, with 1.6 trillion yuan issued, accounting for 37% of the annual quota [7].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance has released the legislative work plan for 2025, which includes the research and formulation of the management measures for the domestic investment of the National Social Security Fund and the revision of corporate financial regulations [1] - The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government has published the announcement regarding the "Stablecoin Ordinance," designating August 1, 2025, as the effective date for the implementation of the ordinance [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.48% at the midday close. The Hang Seng Index declined by 0.21%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.59% [1]