上一交易日SMM1#铅锭平均价格较前日上涨0.15%，沪铅主力收盘较前一日持平。 【市场资讯】 12月4日，上期所沪铅期货仓单录得16553吨，较上一交易日下降76吨；最近一周，沪铅期货仓单累计下 降10942吨，下降幅度为39.80%；最近一个月，沪铅期货仓单累计下降5092吨，下降幅度为23.53%。 本周多地再生铅冶炼厂反映废铅酸蓄电池到厂量有所减少，原料供应收紧。华北地区某大型再生铅冶炼 厂因原料紧缺，计划于下周开始停产，具体复产时间尚未确定。 分析观点： 银河期货研报：近期含铅废料价格有所反弹，再生铅冶炼成本有所抬升；叠加铅价相对低位，冶炼厂惜 售行为明显。国内原生铅冶炼存有检修，产量受到一定影响，国内社会库存及仓单均有减少。短期铅价 或区间偏强震荡，后续仍需关注库存及下游消费情况。 （12月4日）全国铅价格一览 表 规格 品牌/产 地 报价 报价类型 交货地 交易商 品名:1#铅锭 ;牌号:Pb99.994 ; 上海有色 17125元/ 吨 市场价 上海 上海物贸中心有色金属交易市场 品名:1#铅锭 ;牌号:Pb99.994 ; 广东南储 17200元/ 吨 市场价 广东省 广东南储有色现货市场 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lead is regionally tightened, and the price of lead may stop falling and stabilize. The raw materials of lead, including lead concentrate and waste batteries, are facing different situations. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and the cost - support of waste batteries has loosened. On the supply side, the start - up rates of both primary and secondary lead have declined. On the demand side, the terminal market is differentiated, and the overall start - up rate of batteries has increased. The import profit window has opened, and the social inventory of lead ingots has decreased [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.59% to 16,975 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead decreased by 0.44% to 17,090 yuan/ton, and the closing price of LME lead (electronic disk) decreased by 0.40% to 1,981 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Basis**: The TC quotation of lead concentrate is stable with a weakening trend. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The profit of smelters is good, with a profit of 452.1 yuan/ton as of November 28 [35]. 2. Primary Lead - **Processing Fee and Profit**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. The smelter's profit (excluding by - product benefits such as zinc and copper) was 452.1 yuan/ton as of November 28 [35]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rate of primary lead decreased to 65.32% on a month - on - month basis [36]. - **Production and Maintenance Arrangements**: The total weekly production of primary lead decreased from 49,550 tons in the week of November 21 to 46,410 tons this week. Some enterprises had maintenance, resulting in production cuts [41]. 3. Secondary Lead - **Raw Material Price and Cost Support**: As of November 28, the average price of waste batteries was 9,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The cost support has loosened [48]. - **Profit**: The comprehensive profit of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was 220 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was 12 yuan/ton as of November 28. The profit improved in the second half of the week as the lead price rebounded [54]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rate**: The raw material inventory of secondary lead increased, and the finished product inventory decreased. The start - up rate of secondary lead enterprises decreased by 2 percentage points to 48.5% [57][60]. 4. Lead Batteries - The start - up rate of lead batteries increased by 2.83 percentage points to 73.39%. The terminal market is differentiated. The electric bicycle battery market is weakening, while the automobile battery market is in the replacement peak season [67]. 5. Import and Export - As of November 28, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 3,200 yuan/ton, and the import was profitable at 143.13 yuan/ton, indicating that the import profit window has opened [78]. 6. Lead Ingot Inventory - As of November 27, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five places was 3.5 tons, showing a decline. The warehouse inventory of the main deliverable brands of primary lead was 9,100 tons, showing a month - on - month increase. As of November 28, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 3.78 tons, showing a decrease, and the LME inventory was 26.09 tons, also showing a decrease [88][93]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the production, export, import, consumption, and inventory data of primary and secondary lead from July 2024 to August 2025 [94].

Core Viewpoint - Recent lead prices have shown a slight recovery, influenced by inventory levels, cost factors, and macroeconomic conditions [1] Inventory Factors - As of December 2, the average spot price for lead was 17,000 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 50 yuan/ton (0.29%) and a year-on-year decrease of 125 yuan/ton (0.73%) [1] - Downstream demand has led to a reduction in domestic warehouse receipts, with current lead ingot warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange being less than 20,000 tons, which has provided some support for lead prices [1] Cost Factors - The price of recycled batteries had previously faced downward pressure, making it difficult for recyclers to purchase at low prices, but there has been a slight recovery in battery prices, which has supported the bottom line for lead prices [1] Macroeconomic Factors - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December have increased, leading to a weaker US dollar, which has generally supported the performance of non-ferrous metals [1] - However, there are short-term expectations of weakening demand, which may limit the upward potential for lead prices [1]

炼厂减产增多 铅价企稳修整 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 铅周报 2025 年 12 月 1 日 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价延续偏弱走势。宏观面看，美联储 位官员态度转鸽，12 月降息预期回升，美元回落至 100 关口下方，风险资产压力减弱。 要点 基本面看，LME 交仓压力放缓，但库存保持在 26.4 万 吨附近的高位，基金净多头持仓减半回落，伦铅延续 弱势拖累沪铅走势。内外铅精矿加工费维持弱势报价， 实际成交较寡淡。再生铅炼厂利润亏损扩大，对原料 压价采购，废旧电瓶报价小幅下调，成交情况一般。 冶炼端炼厂减停产较多，九华新材 11 ...

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年11月30日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：供应承压，但需求下滑，价格震荡 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：16800-17400元/吨 五地铅总库存减少，绝对库存处于历史同期低位 0 5 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-09 10-21 11-01 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-18 12-30 万吨 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 国内铅现货升水扩大 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - From the perspective of industrial data, the visible inventory of lead ore has increased, but the smelting start - up rate of primary lead has declined, while that of secondary lead has continued to rise. The weekly start - up rate of downstream battery enterprises has increased marginally, and the visible inventory of domestic lead ingots has decreased marginally. In terms of funds, after two consecutive weeks of decline, the lead price has returned to the oscillation center of 17,000 yuan. Considering the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals industry is relatively positive, and the short - term lead price is expected to be strong [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.77% at 17,087 yuan/ton with a total unilateral trading position of 73,500 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME Lead 3S rose 13 to $1,990/ton with a total position of 166,200 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots and secondary refined lead was 16,975 yuan/ton, with a flat price difference between refined and scrap. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,900 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased slightly to 35,300 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 26,300 tons, with an internal primary basis of - 65 yuan/ton and a spread of - 35 yuan/ton between consecutive contracts. **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 264,200 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 140,400 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was - $38.94/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $82.8/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 143.13 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industrial Data**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 32,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 474,000 tons, equivalent to 30.7 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - $135/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 65.32%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 9,000 tons. At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 102,000 tons, the weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 73.39% [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Import and Production**: In October 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 98,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 39.7% and a month - on - month change of - 34.6%. From January to October, the cumulative net import was 1,167,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.0%. The net import of silver concentrate in October was 149,400 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 11.4% and a month - on - month change of - 7.0%. From January to October, the cumulative net import was 1,507,900 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4%. In October, China's lead concentrate production was 146,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.6% and a month - on - month change of - 3.4%. From January to October, the total production was 1,395,300 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.4%. The net import of lead - containing ore in October was 118,700 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 21.6% and a month - on - month change of - 23.2%. From January to October, the cumulative net import was 1,303,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9% [15][17]. - **Total Supply**: In October 2025, China's total supply of lead concentrate was 264,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 6.6% and a month - on - month change of - 13.4%. From January to October, the cumulative supply was 2,698,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In August 2025, the global lead ore production was 383,300 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.2% and a month - on - month change of 0.5%. From January to August, the total production was 3,008,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.1% [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 32,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 474,000 tons, equivalent to 30.7 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - $135/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting and Production**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 65.32%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 9,000 tons. In October 2025, China's primary lead production was 326,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.7% and a month - on - month change of - 0.5%. From January to October, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,186,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.7% [26]. 3. Secondary Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 102,000 tons. The weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. In October 2025, China's secondary lead production was 346,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 11.9% and a month - on - month change of 9.2%. From January to October, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 3,235,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [31][33]. - **Net Export and Total Supply**: In October 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 15,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 92.6% and a month - on - month change of 21.9%. From January to October, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 95,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 43.5%. In October, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 687,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.3% and a month - on - month change of 4.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 6,517,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.8% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 73.39%. In October 2025, the apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 689,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.9% and a month - on - month change of - 4.1%. From January to October, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 6,526,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.9% [40]. - **Battery Export**: In October 2025, the net export quantity of batteries was 1,614,520 units, and the net export weight was 84,600 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries had a year - on - year change of - 5.0% [43]. - **Inventory Days**: In October 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid battery factories increased from 19.7 days to 24.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries for dealers increased from 39.7 days to 41 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the production decline of electric bicycles directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations driven by the development of communication technology has led to a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Gap**: In October 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of - 2,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of - 9,200 tons [63]. - **Overseas Supply - Demand Gap**: In August 2025, the overseas supply - demand gap of refined lead was a shortage of - 19,400 tons. From January to August, the cumulative overseas supply - demand gap of refined lead was a shortage of - 46,900 tons [66]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Basis and Spread**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased slightly to 35,300 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 26,300 tons, with an internal primary basis of - 65 yuan/ton and a spread of - 35 yuan/ton between consecutive contracts [71]. - **Overseas Basis and Spread**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 264,200 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 140,400 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was - $38.94/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $82.8/ton [74]. - **Internal - External Spread**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 143.13 yuan/ton [77]. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai Lead decreased significantly, the net long position of investment funds in LME Lead decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From the perspective of positions, the short - term guidance is bullish [80].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint The lead market remains weak. Although there is a slight de - stocking in domestic inventory in the short term, if the supply of secondary lead continues to increase steadily while the boost from the consumption peak season is limited, social inventory may end the de - stocking trend and start to accumulate again, and the weak decline of lead prices is expected to continue. Attention should be paid to the production dynamics of secondary lead and changes in domestic inventory in the later stage [6]. Summary by Related Content Fundamental Changes - **Processing Fees**: In October 2025, the import volume of lead concentrate was 98,342 tons in physical quantity, a month - on - month decrease of 34.69%. The domestic lead concentrate market demand soared in winter, intensifying the tight supply situation. The domestic monthly processing fee in November was 250 - 350 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 50 yuan; the import monthly processing fee was - 150 - - 100 US dollars/dry ton, a monthly decrease of 10 US dollars. The domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 250 - 350 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the import weekly processing fee was - 150 - - 120 US dollars/dry ton, also unchanged week - on - week [2]. - **Supply**: In October, the national electrolytic lead production decreased slightly, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.56% and a year - on - year increase of 2.66%; the secondary lead production increased significantly, with a month - on - month increase of 9.24% and a year - on - year increase of 11.86%. The average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces last week was 67.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. An eastern region smelter will enter regular maintenance this week, with a relatively limited impact on the electrolytic lead production line. The pressure on the raw material side is prominent, and the operating rate of primary lead will not change much in the later stage. The weekly operating rate of secondary lead in four provinces was 50.52%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.28%. SMM expects the operating rate of secondary lead to continue to increase this week. Recently, the domestic - foreign price ratio has risen, and lead imports have a small profit [3]. - **Consumption**: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises remained stable last week. The terminal consumption of the lead - acid battery market has not changed significantly recently. The electric bicycle battery market will enter the traditional off - season, and the demand for automobile batteries has recovered but with limited boost. High battery inventory means that battery enterprises have insufficient motivation to increase production significantly in the short term. Whether the seasonal recovery of automobile battery consumption in winter can drive overall inventory reduction remains to be observed. Some enterprises have actively reduced production in November, and major enterprises will maintain the production - based - on - sales model before new orders recover. The spot market atmosphere has declined, lead prices have continued to be weak, and downstream buyers are mostly waiting and watching except for some with rigid demand, resulting in a decline in spot transactions [4][5]. - **Spot**: As of the week of November 21, the domestic lead spot basis fluctuated. The lead spot basis was at a premium of 65 yuan at the end of last week. The LME lead spot remained at a discount, with a discount of - 22.41 US dollars at the end of last week [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of November 21, the LME lead weekly inventory increased by 40,375 tons to 222,900 tons, and the LME inventory has rebounded for two consecutive weeks at a high level; the SHFE lead weekly inventory decreased by 3,869 tons to 38,900 tons. As of November 17, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions was 35,300 tons, with a slight decline but still at an absolute low level in the past four years [5]. Market Outlook and Strategy - Overseas lead supply and demand are relatively loose, with high LME lead inventory and a discounted spot price. The import of lead concentrate decreased significantly in October, and the demand for winter - stored lead concentrate in China is high, intensifying the expectation of tight lead concentrate supply. The production of primary lead is restricted by raw materials, and the operating rate will not change much. The smelting profit of secondary lead enterprises has improved, and the supply of raw materials has improved, but there is still uncertainty in environmental protection disturbances in winter. The domestic - foreign price ratio of lead ingots has risen, and domestic imports have a small profit. The consumption of electric bicycle batteries is weakening, and the terminal consumption of automobile batteries is not strong. Lead prices are weak, and downstream buyers are mostly waiting and watching. In the short term, lead supply recovery is less than expected, and domestic inventory is slightly decreasing. However, if the supply of secondary lead continues to increase steadily while the consumption peak season has limited boost, social inventory may start to accumulate again, and the weak decline of lead prices is expected to continue [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the delivery of the SHFE lead 2511 contract ended, some delivered lead returned to the spot market, causing lead prices to fluctuate and decline. With no obvious improvement in consumption and a slight weakening of cost - side support, it is expected that lead prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the downside space is limited. Previous short positions should pay attention to profit protection. Continued attention should be paid to the impact of raw material arrivals on smelter operations [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1.1 Market Review - The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots decreased by 2.01% month - on - month to 17,075 yuan/ton. The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract decreased by 1.89% to 17,165 yuan/ton. The LME lead closing price (electronic trading) dropped by 3.73% to 1,989 US dollars/ton [15]. 2.1 Tight Ore Supply Pattern Persists, TC Declining - The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat month - on - month at 350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of tight ore supply remains unchanged, and due to the high - level volatility of precious metal prices, the TC quotation is stable but trending downwards. Smelter profits are good, and as of November 14, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 308.2 yuan/ton [38]. 2.2 Primary Lead Operating Rate Slightly Increased to 67.7% - The primary lead operating rate increased slightly month - on - month to 67.7%. The production of major deliverable brands of primary lead in China showed certain changes, with the total weekly production of major deliverable primary lead smelters being 49,850 tons in the week of November 14, 49,550 tons in the week of November 21, and an expected 49,650 tons this week [39][44]. 3.1 Scrap Battery Prices Weakened - As of November 21, the average price of scrap batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton. During the week, lead prices fluctuated and declined, and some smelters lowered their scrap battery quotes, weakening the cost support. Considering that battery scrapping is gradually entering the off - season and the number of recyclers is decreasing, it is expected that scrap battery prices may have an upward adjustment expectation [53]. 3.1 Recycled Lead Smelter Profits Declined - As of November 21, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was 169 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale recycled lead enterprises was - 43 yuan/ton. The decline in lead prices from a high level and the limited decline in scrap battery prices squeezed the profits of recycled lead smelters [59]. 3.2 Recycled Lead Raw Material Inventory Increased, Finished Product Inventory Decreased - As of November 20, the recycled lead raw material inventory was 158,900 tons, showing a month - on - month increase, and the recycled lead finished product inventory was 2,380 tons. Currently, the restarted recycled lead enterprises are still in the production ramping - up stage, and due to long - term order deliveries, the volume of spot goods is limited. Downstream enterprises maintain just - in - time replenishment, making it difficult to accumulate recycled lead finished product inventory [62]. 3.3 Recycled Lead Operating Rate Increased - The recycled lead enterprise operating rate increased by 2.3 percentage points month - on - month to 50.5%. As of last Friday, the weekly production of recycled lead was 60,100 tons, showing an increase. The environmental control in Henan was lifted, and raw material arrivals improved, leading to an increase in the local operating rate. This week, considering that a smelter in Anhui needs to temporarily stop production for the replacement of its hazardous waste business license, the smelter operating rate will decline [65]. 4 Lead Battery Operating Rate Remained Stable - The lead battery operating rate remained flat month - on - month at 70.56%. There was no obvious change in the terminal market, and the battery operating rate was stable. By segment, the electric bicycle battery market weakened, the electric tricycle battery market was okay, and the automotive battery market was stable. Before the recovery of new orders, it is expected that battery enterprises will maintain a production - to - order model [73]. 5 Import Profit Window May Open - As of November 14, the refined lead export loss was about 2,900 yuan/ton. As of November 21, the import profit was 10.51 yuan/ton, and the import profit window may open [84]. 6.1 Lead Ingot Inventory Declined - As of November 20, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 37,700 tons, showing a decline. The inventory of major deliverable brands of primary lead at the factory was 6,380 tons, showing a month - on - month decline. After the delivery, lead ingots returned to the spot market, and downstream enterprises made just - in - time purchases after the decline in lead prices, leading to inventory depletion [97]. 6.2 SHFE Inventory Decreased, LME Inventory Increased - As of November 21, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 38,900 tons, showing a month - on - month decrease. As of November 20, the LME inventory was 262,850 tons, showing an increase [100]. 6.3 Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet for lead from July 2024 to August 2025, including data on primary lead production, recycled lead production, exports, imports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and comprehensive inventory [101].

1. Report Title and Researcher - Report Title: Lead Weekly Report: Weakening Lead-Acid Battery Consumption, Focus on the Cost Support of Secondary Lead Smelting [1] - Researcher: Chen Hansong [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03129697 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0020351 [1] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 3. Core Viewpoints - With the increase in domestic secondary lead production and resumption, lead ingot supply has recovered. However, lead-acid battery consumption has weakened, and domestic lead ingot inventories have gradually increased. Under the pressure of the fundamentals, lead prices may be under pressure and run weakly. Recently, attention should still be paid to the support of secondary lead costs for lead prices [4] - Trading strategies include: the lead price may fluctuate weakly in a range; for arbitrage, temporarily wait and see; for options, also temporarily wait and see [4] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Chapter 1: Market and Logic 4.1.1 1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Industry Supply and Demand** - **Supply Side**: This week, the processing fee for domestic lead concentrates reached 300 yuan/metal ton, and the weekly processing fee for SMM imported lead concentrates reached -135 US dollars/dry ton. The lead concentrate market was generally stable, and the situation of tight imported ore and almost no quotes continued. In the domestic ore trading market, smelters in Henan, Inner Mongolia and other places continued to purchase on demand. After the high silver price回调, except for individual mines accepting a small callback in processing fees to make up for the loss of smelter processing profits, most mines and smelters did not mention price adjustments for lead concentrate processing fees. The situation of production start decline in southern smelters in Jiangxi, Hunan, Yunnan and other places due to the shortage of lead concentrate supply had not eased [4] - **Smelting End**: This week, the average production rate of SMM's three provincial primary lead smelters was 67.7%, a slight increase of 0.13% compared with last week. The marginal fluctuation of the output of primary lead smelters in Henan brought a small increase; the production of smelters in Hunan and Yunnan remained stable, and the smelters that had not been fully produced before had no plans to increase production. A smelter in East China that had previously reduced production due to maintenance resumed production this week, and another smelter carried out scheduled maintenance as planned, with the recovery time to be determined. A smelter in East China whose maintenance plan was originally scheduled for the end of November will enter regular maintenance next week, but the impact on the electrolytic lead production line will be relatively limited, and there may be a slight reduction in production. The weekly start rate of SMM's four provincial secondary lead smelters was 50.52%, an increase of 2.28% compared with last week. The weekly start rate of secondary lead in Anhui changed little, but there was an expectation of a decline next week, mainly because a local smelter needed to temporarily stop production due to the replacement of the hazardous waste business license. The environmental protection control in Henan was lifted, the arrival of raw materials improved, and the disassembly volume of waste lead-acid batteries increased; coupled with the resumption of production of a small and medium-sized smelter after shutdown, the regional start rate increased by 7.11%. The production situation of smelters in Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia changed little [4] - **Consumption End**: This week, the weekly comprehensive start rate of SMM's five provincial lead-acid battery enterprises was 70.56%, basically stable compared with last week. Recently, the terminal consumption performance of the lead-acid battery market had no significant changes, and the production of lead-acid battery enterprises was relatively stable. The consumption of electric bicycle batteries had weakened, while that of electric tricycles was okay. In addition, the lead price increased in early November, and leading enterprises notified plans to raise battery prices, prompting dealers to receive goods on demand, and the production of lead-acid battery enterprises was stable. The automotive battery market was in a state of waiting for the traditional peak season. Previously, due to the increase in lead prices, dealers received goods on demand at the beginning of November, but there were no obvious signs of improvement in the terminal market. Some enterprises had actively reduced production in November. Therefore, before new orders recovered, major enterprises would maintain the production mode based on sales [4] - **Inventory Data**: As of November 20, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five places reached 37,700 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons compared with November 13; a decrease of 900 tons compared with November 17 [4] - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: The lead price may fluctuate weakly in a range [4] - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily wait and see [4] - **Options**: Temporarily wait and see [4] 4.1.2 1.2 - 1.5 Other Sub - sections - These sections mainly list the data items to be analyzed, including futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventories, but specific data analysis content is not provided in the given text [5][8][11][14] 4.2 Chapter 2: Raw Material End - This chapter lists the data items related to raw material supply, including primary raw material supply (global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, etc.) and secondary raw material supply (prices of lead-containing waste, raw material inventories of secondary lead smelters, etc.), but specific data analysis content is not provided in the given text [19][23][27] 4.3 Chapter 3: Smelting End - This chapter lists various data items related to the smelting end, including global and domestic refined lead balance, imports and exports, profits of primary lead smelting enterprises, supply of primary and secondary lead, and total domestic lead ingot supply, but specific data analysis content is not provided in the given text [34][41][42] 4.4 Chapter 4: Demand End - This chapter lists the data items related to demand, including lead-acid batteries, lead alloys and their plates, automobiles, motorcycles, power, and communications, but specific data analysis content is not provided in the given text [68][71][76]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures continued to decline from a high level. The US November non - farm payroll data was postponed, increasing the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December and causing the US dollar to rise, which suppressed risk assets. After a large - scale delivery in LME, the inventory increased to over 260,000 tons, cooling down the enthusiasm of long - position funds and leading to an adjustment of lead prices at home and abroad. [3][6] - The supply of lead ore remained tight, and the low TC situation would persist for a long time. The price of waste batteries was stable with a slight downward trend. The profit of secondary lead refineries decreased, and some refineries reduced their production enthusiasm, with the possibility of new production cuts. [3][6] - On the smelting side, primary and secondary lead refineries had both production cuts and restarts. The overall refinery operating rate was expected to remain stable. On the demand side, the consumption of electric bicycles weakened, but large battery enterprises still maintained an operating rate of over 80%, and the overall demand for raw materials remained stable. [3][6][7] - Overall, the uncertainty of interest rate cuts dampened market optimism, and the large - scale delivery in LME affected long - position funds. The tight raw material supply, the increased expectation of production cuts due to compressed profits of secondary lead refineries, and the insignificant inventory accumulation provided support for lead prices. However, it was difficult to significantly boost demand in the off - season. In the short term, the market sentiment was cautious, and it was expected that Shanghai lead would weakly seek support, and attention should be paid to the performance near the lower integer - value levels. [3][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | 11/14 | 11/21 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 17,495 | 17,165 | - 330 | Yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 2,066 | 1,989 | - 77 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.47 | 8.63 | 0.16 | | | SHFE Inventory | 42,790 | 38,921 | - 3,869 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 222,475 | 262,850 | 40,375 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 35,900 | 39,400 | 3,500 | Tons | | Spot Premium | - 190 | - 145 | 45 | Yuan/ton | [4] Market Review - The main contract PB2601 of Shanghai lead futures declined from a high level, testing the support of the lower moving averages, with a weekly decline of 1.94%. On Friday night, it continued to be weak. The LME lead price also dropped significantly from a high level, affected by large - scale delivery and the strengthening of the US dollar due to the reduced expectation of interest rate cuts in December, with a weekly decline of 3.73%. [5] - In the spot market, as of November 21, the price of lead in the Shanghai market was 17,145 - 17,195 yuan/ton, at par with the SHFE 2512 contract. As lead prices continued to weaken, sellers lowered their premium quotes, and the discount of the supply from electrolytic lead plants narrowed. However, due to the falling lead prices, downstream enterprises were more hesitant, and the spot market trading became lighter. [5] - In terms of inventory, as of November 21, the LME weekly inventory was 262,850 tons, an increase of 40,375 tons from the previous week. The SHFE inventory was 38,921 tons, a decrease of 3,869 tons from the previous week. As of November 20, the social inventory in five regions monitored by SMM was 37,700 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from Monday and an increase of 2,800 tons from last Thursday. After the delivery of the current - month contract, some downstream enterprises purchased on demand, and the inventory first increased and then decreased. [6] Industry News - As of the week ending November 21, the domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 300 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee was - 135 US dollars/dry ton, with both averages remaining unchanged from the previous week. [8] - In October, the import volume of lead concentrates was 98,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 34.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.8%. The import volume of silver concentrates was 149,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The import volume of refined lead and lead products was 18,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.77% and a year - on - year increase of 79.18%. The export volume of refined lead and lead products was 3,981 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.37% and a year - on - year increase of 43.74%. [8] - A secondary lead smelting enterprise in East China was expected to shut down for the next two months due to the expiration of its hazardous waste business license and the pending approval, which might slightly weaken the weekly operating rate next week. [8]