研究报告 铅周报 铅供给有所增加，沪铅或以震荡趋势运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周，沪铅期货主力合约 PB2506 价格以震荡行情为主。价格 范围在 16835 元/吨附近至 17050 元/吨左右。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 5 月 19 日星期一 中美互降关税落地后，关税政策调整对铅价的影响正在逐步 减弱。铅现货价格小幅回升，铅贴水有所扩大。铅加工费从底部 逐步回升，但仍然处于底部区域。铅产量持续增长，铅企业开工 率逐步攀升。电动自行车产量保持增长，铅蓄电池需求或增长。 沪铅库存大幅上升，库存水平处于近年来低位。LME 铅库存持续 下降，库存水平处于近年来高位。 【后市展望】 铅价或以震荡趋势为主。 【风险提示】 美联储政策变化超预期，经济数据变化超预期，铅供给变化 超预期。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 *特别声明： ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-16 下游采购以刚需为主 铅价维持震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-05-15，LME铅现货升水为-6.64美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化50元/吨至16800元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨 至16825元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化50元/吨至16800元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变 化50元/吨至16850元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨 至10300元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10200元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10550元/吨。 期货方面：2025-05-15，沪铅主力合约开于16990元/吨，收于16975元/吨，较前一交易日变化40元/吨，全天交易日 成交24392手，较前一交易日变化-8198手，全天交易日持仓29283手，手较前一交易日变化-1442手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17050元/吨，最低点达到16950元/吨。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For copper, the inventory depletion rate may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. The weekend's Sino-US negotiation rumors may boost market sentiment. For the month spread, the current inter - month positive spread has shown a large space, and subsequent upward momentum requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices. [1] - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and the demand expectation in May does not decline significantly. There is still a supply - demand gap. It is recommended to wait and see on the absolute price, take profit on the aluminum internal - external reverse spread, and continue to hold the inter - month positive spread if the absolute price drops. [1] - For zinc, the zinc price center has moved down slightly in a volatile manner. It is in a situation of strong current reality and weak expectation. It is recommended to short at high prices, continue to hold the internal - external positive spread, and pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread opportunity after mid - May. [2] - For nickel, the short - term fundamental situation is weak, and there is still instability in tariffs and continuous disturbances at the mine end. Attention should be paid to Indonesia's tariff policy on China and the opportunity for the nickel - stainless steel price ratio to shrink. [4] - For stainless steel, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and under the influence of tariffs, the steel mill's profit is under pressure. The unilateral price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and the reverse spread can be rolled over and continued to be held. [7] - For lead, the lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 and 16,900 next week, and the supply in May is expected to decrease cyclically. [8] - For tin, in the short term, the domestic raw material supply is still disturbed, and the fundamentals are expected to remain tight in the first half of the year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - long term. [8] - For industrial silicon, the short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - long term. [10] - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, the downstream demand enters a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. [12] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed from 225 to - 35, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 394, and the Shanghai copper warehouse receipt increased by 20,912. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In April, China's copper concentrate imports increased. The demand shows a co - existence of strong current reality and weak expectation. The inventory depletion slope may continue to slow down. [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 195, the domestic alumina price increased by 12, and the spot import profit decreased by 132.42. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased slightly, and the demand expectation in May does not decline significantly. The inventory is expected to be depleted gently from May to July. [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium decreased by 120, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 190, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 900. [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic TC increased slightly this week, and the smelting maintenance in May decreased slightly. The demand has limited impetus from the rush - installation stimulus. The domestic social inventory is at a low level, and the inflection point from inventory depletion to accumulation is expected to appear in mid - to late May. [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore decreased by 0.5, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1,550, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 84. [3] - **Supply and Demand**: The pure nickel production remains at a high level, the demand is weak, the overseas nickel plate inventory is slightly depleted, and the domestic inventory remains stable. [4] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50. [7] - **Supply and Demand**: In April, the production increased seasonally, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has increased after the festival. [7] Lead - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium remained at - 120, the LME lead inventory decreased by 2,900. [8] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is expected to decrease cyclically in May. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 and 16,900 next week. [8] Tin - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot import profit increased by 2,537.61, the LME tin inventory decreased by 15. [8] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has some changes such as the复产 of African mines, and the demand side has a weakening expectation. The short - term fundamentals are tight, and the medium - long - term attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities. [8] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 260, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 37. [10] - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - long term. [10] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 100, the主力合约基差 decreased by 1,880, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 272. [12] - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term demand enters a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. [12]

策略 中性 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-15 市场成交略有好转 铅价震荡走强 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-05-14，LME铅现货升水为-3.71美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16750元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-35.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨 至16800元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16750元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变 化-25元/吨至16800元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至10300元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10200元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10550元/吨。 期货方面：2025-05-14，沪铅主力合约开于16930元/吨，收于16935元/吨，较前一交易日变化-35元/吨，全天交易日 成交32590手，较前一交易日变化5664手，全天交易日持仓30725手，手较前一交易日变化230手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16980元/吨，最低点达到16835元/ ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; Arbitrage: On hold [3] 2) Core View of the Report - In the off - season of consumption, the supply and demand of lead may show a pattern of both weakness. Macro uncertainties will also continuously interfere with the trend of non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging operations around 17,200 yuan/ton [3] 3) Summary by Related Content Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On May 8, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 16.08 dollars/ton. SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The spot premiums of different regions changed to varying degrees. The lead scrap price differential remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste batteries also had different changes [1] - **Futures Market**: On May 8, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,720 yuan/ton, closed at 16,775 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 39,686 lots, a decrease of 5,276 lots, and the position was 34,382 lots, a decrease of 2,547 lots. The night - session closed flat with the afternoon session [1] Supply and Demand and Inventory - **Supply and Demand**: The inventory pressure of smelting enterprises in Henan increased, and the price difference between different regions' smelting enterprises and traders widened. Downstream enterprises mainly digested finished product inventories, with poor procurement enthusiasm and light trading in the spot market [2] - **Inventory**: On May 8, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 48,000 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons from last week. As of May 8, the LME lead inventory was 255,150 tons, a decrease of 1,550 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish, suggesting sell - hedging operations around 17,200 yuan/ton [3] - **Arbitrage**: On hold [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [3] - Arbitrage: On hold [3] 2. Core View - In the off - season for consumption, the supply and demand of lead may show a pattern of weakness on both sides, and macro uncertainties will continue to interfere with the trend of non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging operations around 17,200 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot**: On May 7, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$17.64/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,550 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,525 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,275 yuan/ton, the waste white shell remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the waste black shell decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,500 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On May 7, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,740 yuan/ton and closed at 16,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 44,962 lots, an increase of 8,816 lots from the previous day. The position was 36,929 lots, a decrease of 1,525 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,875 yuan/ton and a low of 16,650 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,720 yuan/ton and closed at 16,830 yuan/ton, a 0.57% decrease from the previous afternoon's close [1] Spot Market Transactions - The SMM1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton. In Henan, traders offered discounts of 100 - 120 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Jiangxi, smelters offered premiums of 50 - 150 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price and had some transactions; in Hunan, smelters offered discounts of 50 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price, and traders offered discounts of 60 - 50 yuan/ton, with sparse spot transactions; in Yunnan, holders offered discounts of 250 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price and had some transactions. Lead smelters sold according to the market, downstream buyers generally waited and watched, and only made a small amount of purchases for rigid demand. The overall spot market transactions were relatively light [2] Inventory - On May 7, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 46,000 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 256,700 tons, a decrease of 4,800 tons from the previous trading day [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Suspended [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the off - season of consumption, the supply and demand of lead may show a weak pattern, and macro uncertainties will continuously interfere with the trend of non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging operations around 17,200 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On May 6, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$10.29/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by -100 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by -75 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot changed by -100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -125 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,300 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells changed by 50 yuan/ton to 10,525 yuan/ton [2] Futures - On May 6, 2025, the main contract of SHFE lead opened at 16,755 yuan/ton, closed at 16,700 yuan/ton, a change of -140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 36,146 lots, a change of 1,712 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 38,454 lots, a change of 2,348 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,780 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,625 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of SHFE lead opened at 16,740 yuan/ton, closed at 16,675 yuan/ton, a 0.05% decrease from the afternoon close [3] Inventory - On May 6, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 46,000 tons, a change of 600 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 261,500 tons, a change of -100 tons from the previous trading day [3]

2025 年 04 月 30 日 铅：需求偏弱，上方承压 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16895 | -0.65% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1977 | 1.65% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 31780 | -8769 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 3551 | 1373 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 36543 | -2276 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 145978 | -1359 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 15 | -10 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -15.86 | 2.05 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -10 | 5 | 进口升贴水 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-04-29 市场节前备货积极性相对较差 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-04-28，LME铅现货升水为-17.91美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-100元/吨至16775 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -100元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-75 元/吨至16850元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至16750元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化-100元/吨至16800元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变 化-100元/吨至10300元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化-100元/吨至10100元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化-100元/吨 至10475元/吨。 期货方面：2025-04-28，沪铅主力合约开于16940元/吨，收于17005元/吨，较前一交易日变化60元/吨，全天交易日 成交40549手，较前一交易日变化2570手，全天交易日持仓38819手，手较前一交易日变化86手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17010元/吨，最低 ...

研究报告 铅周报 沪铅或以震荡趋势运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周，沪铅期货主力合约 PB2506 价格以震荡行情为主。价格 范围在 16820 元/吨附近至 17085 元/吨左右。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 28 日星期一 铅现货价格小幅回升，铅贴水有所扩大，但仍处于合理区间。 全球精炼铅矿山产量同比增长、环比下降，全球铅供需仍然处于 小幅过剩状态。铅加工费从底部逐步回升，回升幅度缩小。中国 汽车产量继续增长，铅蓄电池需求或增长。沪铅库存大幅下降， 库存水平处于近年来高位。LME 铅库存小幅下降，库存水平处于 近年来高位。 【后市展望】 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投 ...