Core Viewpoint - The "2025 Sichuan Cultural Development Ten Major Events" highlights significant cultural achievements in Sichuan over the past year, showcasing the province's cultural innovation and integration with tourism, while also emphasizing the importance of collective memory and cultural identity [3][4][5]. Group 1: Major Cultural Events - The ten major cultural events include the international significance of the Dujiangyan tea tasting by world leaders, the successful integration of culture and tourism under the theme "Beautiful Tianfu, Leisurely Sichuan," and the record-breaking box office of the animated film "Nezha: Birth of the Demon Child," which grossed over 15.9 billion yuan, ranking fifth in global box office history [3][5]. - The Golden Panda Awards will return in September 2025, featuring a record 5,343 entries from 126 countries and regions, with over 70% being international works, highlighting the event's global reach and cultural exchange [8]. - The Sichuan Super League ("Chuan Chao") will engage 21 teams in a city-based competition, promoting community involvement and generating over 5.6 billion yuan in consumer spending through various cultural and tourism initiatives [9][10]. Group 2: Cultural Innovation and Impact - Sichuan's cultural development is characterized by a deep exploration of its rich heritage, fostering creativity and innovation in cultural products, which has led to a vibrant cultural scene [4][5]. - The success of local productions, such as the dialect short drama "Home and Away," which surpassed 10 billion views, and the television series "Brilliant Youth," which achieved record ratings, reflects the province's growing influence in the entertainment industry [6]. - The integration of local culture into creative works, as seen in the animation industry, is attracting young talent and enhancing the creative environment in Sichuan [6].

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 廖市无双:马年春节,"红包"能有多大?20260104 摘要 Q&A 2026 年市场的整体走势如何? 2026 年的市场整体走势较为强势,超出预期。回顾 2025年 12 月中下旬的表现, 尤其是 A500 指数的规模骤增,以及光模块和商业航天板块的强劲表现,推动了 中证 500、中证 1,000 和国证 2000 等成长指数向上挑战前高。这种强势从个别 指数传导至整个市场,使得中线格局向上的判断较为一致。短期内可能会出现震 荡或调整,但整体趋势依然看好。 更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 市场向上的主要驱动力是什么? 市场向上的主要驱动力有三个:首先是 A500 指数的强劲表现。2024年 12 月 10 日至 28 日期间,A500 在两周内增加了接近 700 亿份,其中圣诞节一周增加了接 近 400 亿份。其次是商业航天板块的火爆,这推动了中证 1.000 和国证 2000 等 成长指数走强。最后是光模块板块持续创新高,自 2024年12月8日 AI ETF 发 行上市以来,成为坚定买入力量的重要组成部分。这三股力量共同 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints On December 31, more than half of the convertible bond industries rose, and the valuation increased month - on - month. The convertible bond market trading sentiment weakened, and the median price of convertible bonds increased. Different industries in the A - share and convertible bond markets showed different trends in terms of rise and fall [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **Index Performance**: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.02% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.58%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.23%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.18%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.03% [1]. - **Market Style**: Mid - cap value was relatively dominant. Large - cap growth fell 0.82%, large - cap value fell 0.13%, mid - cap growth fell 0.42%, mid - cap value rose 0.45%, small - cap growth rose 0.14%, and small - cap value fell 0.17% [1]. - **Fund Performance**: The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 74.68 billion yuan, a 0.50% month - on - month decrease; the total trading volume of the Wind All - A was 2.065788 trillion yuan, a 4.43% month - on - month decrease; the net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 23.828 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased 1.09bp to 1.85% [1]. Convertible Bond Price - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 134.60 yuan, a 0.07% month - on - month increase. Among them, the closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 196.81 yuan, a 2.93% month - on - month decrease; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 119.10 yuan, a 0.21% month - on - month increase; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 130.12 yuan, a 0.32% month - on - month increase [2]. - The proportion of high - price bonds above 130 yuan was 60.57%, a 0.63pct month - on - month increase. The interval with the largest change in proportion was 110 - 120 (including 120), with a proportion of 8.36%, a 1.07pct month - on - month decrease. There were 0 bonds with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 133.05 yuan, a 0.34% month - on - month increase [2]. Convertible Bond Valuation - The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan parity was 34.04%, a 0.50pct month - on - month increase; the overall weighted parity was 101.47 yuan, a 0.36% month - on - month decrease [2]. - The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 16.20%, a 2.18pct month - on - month decrease; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds was 86.36%, a 0.42pct month - on - month decrease; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 26.25%, a 1.08pct month - on - month increase [2]. Industry Performance - **A - share Market**: Among the 31 sectors, 15 industries rose. The top three industries in terms of increase were national defense and military industry (+2.13%), media (+1.54%), and real estate (+1.13%); the top three industries in terms of decline were communication (-1.35%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-1.10%), and electronics (-1.02%) [3]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: A total of 17 industries rose. The top three industries in terms of increase were beauty care (+2.81%), national defense and military industry (+2.50%), and building materials (+1.45%); the top three industries in terms of decline were non - bank finance (-1.43%), light industry manufacturing (-1.32%), and steel (-0.69%) [3]. - **Comprehensive Indicators**: - Closing price: Large - cycle increased 0.18%, manufacturing decreased 0.02%, technology increased 0.86%, large - consumption increased 0.49%, and large - finance decreased 0.76% [3]. - Conversion premium rate: Large - cycle increased 0.45pct, manufacturing increased 0.9pct, technology decreased 0.7pct, large - consumption increased 0.15pct, and large - finance increased 0.22pct [3]. - Conversion value: Large - cycle decreased 0.20%, manufacturing decreased 0.16%, technology increased 1.36%, large - consumption increased 0.55%, and large - finance decreased 1.23% [3]. - Pure bond premium rate: Large - cycle increased 0.27pct, manufacturing increased 0.041pct, technology increased 1.5pct, large - consumption increased 0.59pct, and large - finance decreased 0.94pct [4]. Industry Rotation The national defense and military industry, media, and real estate led the rise. The national defense and military industry had a daily increase of 2.13% in the A - share market and 2.50% in the convertible bond market; the media had a daily increase of 1.54% in the A - share market and 0.75% in the convertible bond market; the real estate had a daily increase of 1.13% in the A - share market [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The focus of observation has shifted to the government bond issuance in January 2026. The government bond issuance in January 2026 is in line with expectations. The long - end bonds are at the upper limit of the expected range and are worth participating in. For equities, the style is generally balanced with growth slightly dominant before the significant increase in government bond issuance. The report recommends a portfolio of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (40% position), the China Securities 1000 Index (40% position), and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF (20% position) [2][8][21] - In the deleveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. The report recommends an A + H dividend portfolio of 13 stocks and an A - share portfolio of 20 stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [9][55] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Asset Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In November 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - economy sector was 8.6% (previous value: 8.7%), in line with expectations. It is expected to decline to around 8.3% in December 2025, lower than the 8.8% at the end of 2024, consistent with the goal of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio. The government debt growth rate is expected to decline to around 12.4% in December 2025 from 13.1% at the end of November 2025. The central bank's stance on stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio remains unchanged, and the quantitative fiscal targets are awaited from the Two Sessions in 2026 [2][16][17] - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the capital market tightened marginally. The one - year Treasury bond yield rose to 1.34% at the weekend. It is estimated that the lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is about 1.3%, with a central value around 1.4%, and a 10 - basis - point interest rate cut is expected in 2026. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds narrowed to 51 basis points. The spreads between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds and between the thirty - year and ten - year Treasury bonds are expected to be in the range of 20 - 50 basis points, and the future yield ranges of the ten - year and thirty - year Treasury bonds are expected to be around 1.6% - 1.9% and 1.8% - 2.3% respectively [3][17] - **Asset Side**: In November 2025, the physical volume data showed signs of stabilizing at a low level compared to October. The full - year real economic growth target for 2025 was set at around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target was around 4.9%. It remains to be seen whether a nominal economic growth rate of around 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][18] 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - **Macroeconomic Background**: Since 2011, China has entered a period of declining potential economic growth, which seems to have ended in Q4 2024. Subsequently, China's profit cycle has entered a state of narrow - range oscillation at a low level. The government's policy goals of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio, having the financial sector benefit the real economy, and ensuring that housing is for living in rather than speculation are still in effect, and the deleveraging on the liability side has limited room for further contraction. If the valuation of the technology sector in the US is re - evaluated, global funds may flow from the US to China, and attention should be paid to whether the RMB exchange rate will enter an appreciation channel. The risk appetite may also oscillate within a certain range [6][19] - **Market Performance**: Last week, the capital market tightened marginally, resulting in a double - kill of stocks and bonds, with the growth style still dominant. The yields of both long - and short - term bonds rose, and the stock - bond cost - effectiveness favored stocks. The ten - year Treasury bond yield rose by 1 basis point to 1.85%, the one - year Treasury bond yield rose by 5 basis points to 1.34%, and the thirty - year Treasury bond yield rose by 4 basis points to 2.27%. The broad - based rotation strategy outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 0.03 pct last week but has underperformed the CSI 300 Index by - 5.34 pct since its establishment in July 2024, with a maximum drawdown of 12.1% (compared to 15.7% for the CSI 300 Index) [7][20] 3.3 Industry Recommendations - **Industry Performance Review**: This week, the A - share market rose with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.58% and the ChiNext Index fell 1.25%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, petroleum and petrochemicals, national defense and military industry, media, automobiles, and machinery and equipment had the largest increases, with weekly changes of 3.9%, 3.1%, 2.1%, 1.4%, and 1.3% respectively. Public utilities, food and beverages, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and non - bank finance had the largest declines, with weekly changes of - 2.7%, - 2.3%, - 2.2%, - 2.1%, and - 1.8% respectively [26][27] - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume**: As of December 31, the top five industries in terms of crowding were electronics, power equipment, machinery and equipment, national defense and military industry, and computers, with values of 15.5%, 9.4%, 8.9%, 8%, and 6.8% respectively. The bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, coal, steel, and petroleum and petrochemicals. The top five industries with increased crowding this week were media, machinery and equipment, household appliances, computers, and national defense and military industry. The trading volume of the entire A - share market rebounded this week. Media, petroleum and petrochemicals, computers, beauty care, and national defense and military industry had the highest year - on - year growth rates in trading volume [28][30] - **Industry Valuation and Earnings**: This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, the PE (TTM) of petroleum and petrochemicals, national defense and military industry, media, machinery and equipment, and automobiles had the largest increases, while public utilities, food and beverages, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and non - bank finance had the largest declines. Industries with high full - year 2024 profit forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to historical levels include banking, insurance, coal, public utilities, transportation, pharmaceuticals, beauty care, new energy, and consumer electronics [34][35] - **Industry Prosperity**: Externally, there was a marginal decline in demand. The global manufacturing PMI decreased from 50.5 to 50.4 in December. Internally, the second - hand housing price remained flat in the latest week, and the quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries showed a fluctuating upward trend from May to December 2025 [39] - **Public Fund Market Review**: In the fifth week of December (December 29 - 31), most actively managed public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300 Index. As of December 31, the net asset value of actively managed public equity funds was 3.95 trillion yuan, slightly up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [52] - **Industry Recommendations**: In the deleveraging cycle, an A + H dividend portfolio of 13 stocks and an A - share portfolio of 20 stocks are recommended, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [55]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights Guangxi's role as a key player in the digital transformation and AI integration within agriculture and other industries, establishing itself as a bridge for AI trade between China and ASEAN countries [1][3][4] - Guangxi has successfully implemented multiple digital agriculture projects in ASEAN countries, covering over 20,000 acres with smart agriculture applications such as AI systems for crop management [1][3] - The region has built China's first smart unmanned sugarcane farm and is actively collaborating with ASEAN nations in areas like smart pig farming and digital sugarcane planting [3] Group 2 - Guangxi is advancing its AI industry ecosystem through the "AI+" initiative, which includes the establishment of a 10 billion RMB AI industry fund and the creation of the Guangxi AI Academy to support high-quality AI development [4] - The first AI Empowerment Super League in 2025 attracted over 10,000 teams, including more than 600 from ASEAN countries, showcasing innovative applications with social benefits [5] - Guangxi is positioned as a crucial hub for AI cooperation between China and ASEAN, with significant potential in cross-border trade, multilingual services, and logistics digitalization [5]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the "spring market excitement" has begun early, characterized by a clear "structural lead and opportunity rotation" feature, with technology remaining dominant [2][3][16] - The current market adjustment was primarily driven by three factors: overseas liquidity disturbances, concerns over AI bubble risks during the US earnings window, and relatively mild economic data, all of which are now diminishing [14][15][16] - The A-share market is entering a pre-heating and layout window for the "spring market excitement" of 2026, with structural opportunities emerging in sectors such as commercial aerospace, robotics, petrochemicals, and non-ferrous metals [3][16] Group 2 - The report highlights that the rise in non-ferrous metals is driven by multiple factors, including macroeconomic conditions, industry fundamentals, capital allocation, and geopolitical issues, rather than a single cause [4][29] - The report notes that the current Chinese consumer market shows a clear characteristic of "total pressure but structural recovery," with structural highlights in both traditional and emerging consumption sectors [5][31][32] - The investment strategy suggests a dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors, emphasizing the importance of PPI improvements and the benefits of "anti-involution" policies in sectors like non-ferrous metals, photovoltaics, chemicals, steel, and machinery [6][34][35]

Group 1: A-Share Strategy - The report anticipates a "good start" for A-shares after the New Year, driven by the recent gains in Hong Kong stocks and the A50 index, suggesting a high probability of a positive market opening [2][3] - The report highlights three key factors that previously supported the continuous rise of A-shares: the A500 ETF's volume and price increase, the sustained strength of optical modules, and the booming commercial aerospace sector, though their continuation post-holiday remains uncertain [2][3] - The recommendation is to maintain current positions and avoid chasing prices, while being prepared to increase allocations if a buying opportunity arises similar to the "golden pit" seen in early 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Outlook - The macroeconomic analysis predicts a GDP growth rate of 4.6% year-on-year for Q4 2025, indicating a strong production sector and moderate demand recovery [4] - Economic activities in December are expected to accelerate, supported by both domestic and external demand, with a reasonable chance of achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [4] - Industrial production is identified as a key driver of growth, while consumer spending is projected to see a slight recovery, although automotive sales are expected to face challenges due to declining volumes and increased discounts [4]

Group 1 - The report anticipates that A-shares will continue their upward trend in January, supported by improved fundamentals due to accelerated local government special bond issuance and a recovery in government investment [2][4][12] - The earnings forecast for listed companies is expected to show a significant year-on-year increase due to a low base from the previous year, with January being a key period for earnings announcements [4][14][22] - The report highlights a focus on sectors such as commercial aerospace, AI applications, and semiconductor equipment, as well as cyclical resource sectors like industrial metals, which are expected to be the main battlegrounds in January [12][16][22] Group 2 - The liquidity environment is projected to remain stable, with net inflows of incremental funds expected, particularly from foreign and insurance capital [3][15][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of sectors with high earnings growth or improvement, particularly in TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) and cyclical resource sectors [5][17][54] - The report suggests that the market is likely to experience structural inflows of funds, with a focus on large-cap growth stocks and indices such as CSI 300 and STAR Market 50 [16][18][21] Group 3 - The report indicates that January is a critical month for earnings disclosures, with potential volatility in stocks that may not meet expectations, particularly in high-growth sectors [48][51] - The analysis of historical data suggests that sectors with stable earnings, such as home appliances, automobiles, and non-bank financials, have a higher probability of achieving excess returns during this period [51][54] - The report notes that the upcoming year is significant due to the initiation of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which historically correlates with increased infrastructure investment and economic stabilization [23][26][29] Group 4 - The report discusses the global commodity market, indicating a potential upward trend in prices driven by demand recovery and policy expectations, particularly in industrial metals [30][35][36] - The analysis highlights the impact of geopolitical factors and supply chain security on commodity prices, emphasizing the importance of resource nationalism and strategic resource management [42][43][46] - The report suggests that the demand for industrial metals will be supported by new technological needs, particularly in AI and renewable energy sectors, which are expected to drive significant growth [38][40][47]

Market Review - The South Korean Composite Index, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech Index, and Taiwan Weighted Index led global gains, while US stock indices declined during the week of December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026. In the A-share market, cyclical and growth sectors performed well, with oil and petrochemicals, military industry, and media leading gains, while utilities lagged behind. On January 2, 2026, the Hong Kong stock market opened strong, with the Hang Seng Tech Index surging 4%, particularly in semiconductor, AI computing, and internet giants, indicating a recovery in market risk appetite. In commodities, base metals and crude oil rose, while precious metals fell, with COMEX silver and gold down 6.39% and 4.63%, respectively. The offshore RMB strengthened against the US dollar, surpassing 6.97 on Friday [1][2][3]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a bullish trend into 2026, driven by several positive factors. The macro policy cycle is favorable, with multiple departments rolling out supportive industrial policies and investment plans as 2026 marks the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan. Coordinated fiscal and monetary policies are creating a friendly liquidity environment. Institutional funds, particularly in stock ETFs, have shown significant inflows, indicating a strong willingness to invest as foreign capital returns due to currency appreciation. The narrowing decline in PPI suggests a mild recovery in corporate profits, which will support market sentiment [2][4][5]. Key Focus Areas 1. **Overseas Developments**: The selection of a new Federal Reserve Chair is a key focus, with the December meeting minutes indicating a majority support for further rate cuts, though there are significant policy path divergences. The probability of a rate cut in January is low at 17%, with potential candidates like Hassett and Waller advocating for further easing [2][3]. 2. **PMI Data**: Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs returned to expansion territory in December 2025, with manufacturing PMI at 50.1% and non-manufacturing PMI at 50.2%. This improvement in production and new orders supports the spring market rally [3][4]. 3. **Policy Measures**: The government has implemented a series of targeted policies to boost market confidence, including a 295 billion yuan investment plan and early release of subsidies and local debt limits. The real estate sector is also seeing policy adjustments to lower transaction costs, which may stabilize market expectations [4][5]. 4. **Institutional Investment Trends**: There has been a notable net inflow of institutional funds into stock ETFs, particularly those related to the A500 index, indicating a proactive approach to the upcoming spring market rally. The favorable policy outlook and stable currency are expected to attract further foreign investment [5]. Industry Focus - The focus for industry investment should be on emerging growth sectors supported by policy, such as AI computing, robotics, and energy storage, as well as sectors benefiting from price increases and "anti-involution" trends, including chemicals and non-ferrous metals [5].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for the technology sector, specifically highlighting key stocks for January 2026 [6]. Core Insights - The report identifies several key companies within the technology sector, including Eastcompeace, Jincheng Electronics, Xinyi Technology, Tax Friend, Haiguang Information, Giant Network, and Perfect World, as potential investment opportunities [6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14]. Summary by Category Electronics - **Eastcompeace**: The company is entering a growth phase driven by AI technology breakthroughs, leading to increased capital expenditure from cloud vendors and a surge in demand for data servers. The acquisition of Solstice Optoelectronics enhances its position in optical communication [8]. - **Jincheng Electronics**: The company reported a revenue of 889 million yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%. The semiconductor business is expected to grow significantly, with an order backlog of approximately 1.791 billion yuan [9]. Communication - **Xinyi Technology**: As a leading manufacturer of high-speed optical modules, the company has made significant inroads with major clients like Amazon and is expected to see substantial profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 94.97 million yuan, 166.16 million yuan, and 217.76 million yuan respectively [10]. - **Huafeng Technology**: The company is positioned to benefit from the high demand for AI applications and is expected to see net profits grow from 3.53 million yuan in 2025 to 8.73 million yuan by 2027 [10]. Computer - **Tax Friend**: The company is a leader in the financial IT sector, leveraging AI and big data to provide comprehensive solutions for businesses. It aims to enhance its product offerings and customer engagement through innovative AI-driven solutions [11]. - **Haiguang Information**: The company is a key player in the domestic high-end CPU market, expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI computing power. It aims to establish a comprehensive AI computing platform [12]. Media - **Giant Network**: The company is experiencing stable commercialization with new game releases and updates expected to drive user engagement and revenue growth [13]. - **Perfect World**: The company is preparing for the launch of its new game "Yihuan," which has shown strong pre-launch interest, and is also focusing on expanding its esports business [14].