周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 工业硅需求不见起色，关注多晶硅减产力度 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：看涨 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 月 | 年 | 5 | 11 | 日 | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 价格持续下跌后，北方和云南产能出现减产，但四川进入平水 期后部分硅厂逐步复产。需求端仍无起色，有机硅大厂检修、 多晶硅大厂延迟复产，对工业硅需求减少。多晶硅厂家近期对 工业硅粉单的采购价格在 9500-10000 元/吨。后续关注供给端 边际变化。 ★投资建议 工业硅：工业硅盘面快速跌破我们此前测算的 9000 元/吨一 线，价格下跌或进一步带来供给端的边际变化。策略上，前期 空单可部分止盈，不建议左侧做多，建议关注出现明确的规模 性减产、丰水期西南复产不及预期、仓单明显流出等信号后， 再考虑右侧抄底。此外，关注大厂的现金流风险。 多晶硅：价格下跌后，关注供给端变化，以及 5-6 月份需求排 产是否有超预期的可能。现货博弈加剧，盘面额外关注仓单问 题。在仓单大规模生成之 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current market bottoming signal for industrial silicon is unclear. Social inventory and the number of warehouse receipts suppress the rebound height, and silicon prices are expected to continue to run sluggishly [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Aspects Market Conditions - On May 8, 2025, the industrial silicon spot market was weak. The price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9000 - 9300 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon was 9900 - 10200 yuan/ton. The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract si2506 was 8315, down 0.36%, with a single - day reduction of 1671 lots, current positions of 181,100 lots, and a trading volume of 16.375 billion yuan. The si2506 showed a "V" - shaped trend on that day [1]. Supply Side - In the southwest region, as the wet season approaches, due to low prices and expanding industry losses, the enthusiasm for enterprise resumption is significantly lower than in previous years, with only partial capacity slowly releasing. In the northwest region, the operating rate remains high, and the supply pressure is not relieved. The current market price has fallen below the cash cost of most factories, the industry's loss - making area has expanded, but due to previous hedging and forward price locking, the production reduction is limited, and the capacity adjustment cycle is lengthened. The de - stocking process is slow. Although the prices of silica and reducing agents in the southwest region have slightly declined, cost support cannot offset the downward pressure on prices [1]. Demand Side - Polysilicon prices are temporarily stable, the supply - demand game has deepened, and the mentality of enterprise production reduction is brewing but not yet concentrated. Organic silicon DMC prices are stable, with the market's mainstream opening price at 11500 - 12000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). Terminal demand is weak, factories frequently reduce production and conduct maintenance. Although the DMC price has a slight rebound, orders are mainly from pre - holiday inventory digestion, and post - holiday market transactions have weakened. Aluminum alloy ingot prices have fallen, the industry's operating rate has been adjusted down, and downstream enterprises mainly consume pre - holiday orders and have insufficient willingness to stock up after the holiday [1]. Inventory - On May 8, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt inventory was 68,415 lots, a single - day decrease of 271 lots. The warehouse receipt inventory has been decreasing recently but remains at a high level [1].

晨报 工业硅 工业硅：需求不振去库不佳，硅价加速探底 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 2025 年 5 月 8 日 整理 逻辑：昨日工业硅市场价格继续下跌，目前华东通氧 553#硅在 9000-9300 元/吨，华东 421#硅在 9900-10200 元/吨。期货端：工业硅期货主力合约 si2506 收盘价为 8290，-0.96%，延续增仓下跌，单日增仓 3246 手当前持仓为 18.28 万手，成交额为 101.41 亿元。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供给端：北方内蒙古、陕西、宁夏和山东在产硅企，保持当前开工，产量 波动不大，市场价格一直下跌的情况下，硅企亏损加大，生产承压，若行情长 时间延续当前格局，部分硅企存在减产停工计划， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The industrial silicon futures and spot prices are in a downward trend. The supply in the northwest region remains relatively high, and the demand is weak. The industry is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1][2][3]. - The polysilicon futures price hit a new low, while the spot price remained stable. There is a game between production cuts by polysilicon enterprises to support prices and weak demand. The 2506 contract may rebound due to delivery games [4][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 7, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price hit a new low. The main contract 2506 opened at 8420 yuan/ton and closed at 8290 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous settlement. The open interest of the 2505 main contract was 182,782 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on May 8 was 68,686 lots, a decrease of 244 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. The price of oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9100 - 9300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the price of 421 silicon was 9900 - 10300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [1]. - The consumption of organic silicon DMC was stable, with a quotation of 11300 - 11800 yuan/ton. The overall operating capacity of domestic monomers decreased due to the resumption of some plants in East and North China and the maintenance of an 800,000 - ton plant in the northwest [1]. Strategy - The industry's total inventory pressure is relatively high, and the short - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly. For the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to operate within a range, and upstream enterprises can sell hedging at high prices [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 7, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures continued to decline, opening at 36,670 yuan/ton and closing at 35,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.14% from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract reached 63,290 lots, and the trading volume was 135,166 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 35.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg; the price of dense polysilicon was 34.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg [4]. - Polysilicon factory inventory decreased, while silicon wafer inventory increased. The polysilicon inventory was 26.10 (with a month - on - month change of - 0.50%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 20.62GW (with a month - on - month change of 5.58%). The weekly polysilicon output was 22,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75%, and the silicon wafer output was 13.29GW, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67% [5]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [5]. - In May, the polysilicon output decreased by about 0.2 million tons month - on - month, and the silicon wafer output decreased by about 4GW month - on - month. Some enterprises have new production capacity investment expectations in May, and the registration of warehouse receipts has started [6]. Strategy - The 2506 contract may rebound due to delivery games. Investors can choose to build long positions opportunistically. If the rebound is significant, upstream enterprises can sell hedging [7].

Report Information - Date: May 8, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. Each commodity has a specific outlook, such as price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and the impact of macro - economic and industry news [2][4]. Commodity Summaries Precious Metals - **Gold**: Slight progress in Sino - US negotiations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The prices of different gold contracts showed various changes, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings [5][6][9]. - **Silver**: Expected to decline in a volatile manner. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. Silver prices also showed fluctuations in different contracts [5][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Falling inventories limit price declines. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. There are supply - demand changes in the copper market, and some companies' production has increased [11][13]. - **Aluminum**: Prices are under pressure. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. Some alumina enterprises plan to cut production [14][15]. - **Zinc**: Operating under pressure. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. Zinc prices and inventory data have changed [16][17]. - **Lead**: Weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating within a range. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [19][20]. - **Nickel**: The price range has narrowed, and nickel prices have returned to narrow - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Some Indonesian nickel projects' production capacity utilization is increasing [22][24]. - **Tin**: Prices weakened during the holiday. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [25][27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Weak demand, with a weak performance in the futures market. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. Panasonic is exiting the solar and energy storage business, affecting the industry [30][32]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price hit a new low since listing. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [30][32]. Energy - related Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The cost center continues to move down, and the inventory build - up pattern restricts price rebounds. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [33][35]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, with wide - range oscillations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The central bank has implemented a series of monetary policies [36][37]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Poor demand expectations, with prices fluctuating at low levels. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [40][41][44]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by macro factors, prices are oscillating widely. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [45][48]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke is expected to decline in a volatile manner, and coking coal is affected by the sentiment of coal terminal desilting, also showing a weak trend. The trend strength of both is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [49][50][52]. - **Steam Coal**: Affected by the sentiment of forced desilting at ports, prices are oscillating weakly. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [53][55]. Other Commodities - **Glass**: The price of glass original sheets is stable. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [56][57][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Positive spread arbitrage between months, with expanding processing margins. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Supply disruptions and trade negotiations affect the price [60][63][65]. - **PTA**: Long PTA and short SC. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The supply - demand pattern is changing, with some device maintenance [60][64][66]. - **MEG**: Long PTA and short MEG. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Supply is expected to increase, and it is difficult to reduce port inventory [60][66][67]. - **Rubber**: Prices are oscillating. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Vietnam's rubber export situation is changing, and the new supply is expected to increase gradually [68][70][72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Supply is at a low level, demand is decreasing, and inventory remains high. It is recommended to lightly short the industrial silicon main contract 2506 around 8600 yuan/ton, with a stop - loss price of 8800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8290 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the main contract position is 179,536 lots, up 13,001 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 5534 lots, up 1949 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 68,930 lots, down 306 lots; the spread between the June - July contracts is - 30 yuan, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 10,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the Si main contract basis is 910 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1930 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, an increase of 46,400 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 603,000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 39,600 tons, a decrease of 600 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.39 US dollars/kilogram, down 0.1 US dollars/kilogram; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 16.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 18,176.9 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 60.11%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.655 million tons, an increase of 103,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Last year, the gross profit margins of JinkoSolar and JA Solar in China were negative, - 10.41% and - 7.98% respectively; Trina Solar had the best gross profit margin performance at 6.36%, followed by LONGi Green Energy at 4.39%. The state is increasing investment in long - term data infrastructure construction. Due to the low market conditions, some small and medium - sized enterprises can no longer operate at a loss, and most enterprises in the southwest are in a shutdown state except state - owned enterprises. The photovoltaic industry is affected by the industry self - discipline agreement, with low operating rates and reduced demand for industrial silicon. The price of organic silicon has declined again, and related enterprises have further reduced production, resulting in lower demand for industrial silicon. The aluminum alloy industry has shown mediocre performance in the first quarter, with no obvious improvement in demand, and export volume has declined year - on - year [2]

工业硅月报 供需持续失衡，工业硅延续探底 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 2025 年 5 月 7 日 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 16 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 宏观方面，我国4月制造业PMI陷入萎缩，而工业企 业利润同比增速转正，美国对华关税态度软化推动 人民币汇率升值，央行MLF延续净投放，"两新政策" 引领下我国经济内循环将逐渐加速，政治局会议强 调超常规宏观政策储备仍然充裕，我国将继续全力 推进科技创新和高质量发展。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of industrial silicon have both decreased, and the industrial cost has collapsed. The contract value is approaching the cash cost of leading enterprises, and it is accelerating to find the bottom in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Logic - The industrial silicon spot market was weakly stable yesterday. The price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon was 10,000 - 10,200 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract si2506 of industrial silicon futures was 8,325, down 2.57%. It continued to decline with a significant increase in positions. The main contract added 13,001 positions in a single day, with the current position at 179,500 lots and the trading volume at 11.279 billion yuan [1] Supply - end - The industrial silicon production in Gansu was relatively stable, but there might be a shift to production reduction due to price impacts recently. The output of 97 silicon remained low, and it was difficult to increase the short - term production. The operating rate of intermediate frequency furnaces was low, and the price was still at a low level, but the inquiry situation of traders improved. The market continued to decline, some manufacturers lowered their quotes, the "buy on rising" sentiment intensified, and buyers were still dominant. There were a small number of transactions of low - priced goods from some spot - futures traders [1] Demand - end - The price of polysilicon was temporarily stable, but the demand further declined, and the silicon material price was under pressure. The prices of N - type dense material, N - type granular silicon, N - type re - feeding material, and N - type mixed material were 38 - 40 yuan/kg, 35 - 38 yuan/kg, 39 - 43 yuan/kg, and 36 - 38 yuan/kg respectively. The prices of downstream silicon wafers and battery cells were lowered again, and the market was obviously weak. The rapid decline in demand led to an imbalance in supply and demand in each link. The price of organic silicon DMC fluctuated. The market's mainstream opening price was 11,500 - 12,000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). Some new units of monomer plants entered planned maintenance in May, and the price of the organic silicon spot market stopped falling and rebounded. Downstream enterprises were still digesting pre - holiday inventories, and there was no significant increase in demand in the short term. The spot prices of aluminum alloy ingots in some regions decreased, the terminal demand was continuously weak, the phenomenon of production reduction or suspension of procurement by die - casting enterprises increased, the market trading atmosphere was cold, and alloy ingot enterprises were accumulating inventories [1] Inventory - On May 6, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 68,930 lots, a single - day decrease of 360 lots. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level [1]

| 日期 | 沪锌现货进口盈利 | 沪锌期货进口盈利 | 锌保税库premium | LME C-3M | LME锌库存 | LME锌注销仓单 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/24 | -217.88 | -833.44 | 140 | -33 | 182300 | 31700 | | 2025/04/25 | -150.12 | -851.44 | 140 | -35 | 180050 | 29575 | | 2025/04/28 | -52.89 | -707.36 | 140 | -36 | 179325 | 29525 | | 2025/04/29 | -65.03 | -746.91 | 140 | -35 | 177550 | 31125 | | 2025/04/30 | -4.26 | -777.42 | 140 | -35 | 175275 | 31000 | | 变化 | 60.77 | -30.51 | 0 | 0 | -2275 | -125 | 本周锌价格重心反弹后宽幅震荡，关税情绪改善。供应端，本周国内T ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Report's Core View - Supply is at a low level as some small and medium - sized enterprises in the southwest (except state - owned enterprises) have stopped production due to the low market price, and there may be delays or cancellations of production resumption during the wet season. Demand has decreased as the photovoltaic industry's开工率 is low, the terminal demand for the photovoltaic industry has cooled, and the procurement enthusiasm for industrial silicon has declined. The organic silicon industry has further reduced production, and the downstream aluminum alloy industry has weak demand and declining exports. Inventory remains high. It is recommended to lightly short the industrial silicon main contract 2506 around 8600, with a stop - loss price of 8800, and pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 215 yuan; the main contract position is 179,536 lots, an increase of 13,001 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 7483 lots, a decrease of 3267 lots; the warehouse receipt of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 69,236 lots, a decrease of 131 lots; the price difference between the 6 - 7 month contracts is - 30 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - permeable 553 silicon is 9300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 10,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract is 975 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1930 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, an increase of 46,400 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 603,000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 39,600 tons, a decrease of 600 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 16.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.49 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.09 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 18,176.9 tons, an increase of 691.08 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 60.11%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.655 million tons, an increase of 103,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Wuxi Aotaiwei Technology Co., Ltd. (688516.SH) reported 2024 annual revenue of 9.198 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 45.94%, and a net profit attributable to the parent of 1.273 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.36%. The state is increasing investment in long - term data infrastructure construction. Some small and medium - sized enterprises in the industrial silicon industry have stopped production due to the low market price [2]