1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation - Polysilicon: Oscillation [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand fundamentals of industrial silicon do not support a significant rebound in spot prices, and the futures market is expected to oscillate at a low level. For polysilicon, before the leading enterprises cut production, the fundamentals are bearish for the market, and a short - term short and long - term long strategy can be considered [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2509 contract of industrial silicon increased by 110 yuan/ton week - on - week to 7390 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - fed 553 remained flat at 8150 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 7600 yuan/ton. The PS2508 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1550 yuan/ton week - on - week to 31220 yuan/ton. The transaction price of N - type re - feeding material was 34400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2300 yuan/ton [9] 3.2 Supply - side Rumors of Resumption of Production, Excess Pattern Remains Unchanged 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - This week, the industrial silicon futures oscillated. Xinjiang and Sichuan increased the number of furnaces by 8 and 1 respectively, while Qinghai, Liaoning, and Jilin decreased by 1, 2, and 1 respectively. The weekly output was 76,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.9%. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 13,000 tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 10,000 tons week - on - week. The resumption of production is greater than the reduction, and the demand has no obvious improvement. The balance sheet may accumulate inventory from June to July, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [11] 3.2.2 Organic Silicon - This week, the price of organic silicon continued to fall. Some enterprises entered maintenance or reduced production. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 70.29%, the weekly output was 46,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21%. The inventory was 50,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.83%. The price is expected to continue to face downward pressure [11] 3.2.3 Polysilicon - This week, the main contract of polysilicon futures declined significantly. After the SNEC exhibition, the signing price of polysilicon declined again. The downstream pressured prices severely. The production schedule for June was raised to 100,000 tons, and it is tentatively expected to be 107,000 tons in July. As of June 19, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 262,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 tons. Before the leading enterprises cut production, the price is expected to continue to fall [2][12] 3.2.4 Silicon Wafers - This week, the price of silicon wafers continued to fall. As of June 19, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 18.74GW, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6GW. The production schedule for June was 55GW, and it is expected to be about 54GW in July. The price is expected to continue to be under pressure [12] 3.2.5 Battery Cells - This week, the price of battery cells continued to fall. The production schedule for June was expected to be 53GW, and it was still in the stage of inventory accumulation. As of June 16, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 16.19GW, a week - on - week increase of 1.21GW. If there is no significant reduction in supply, the price is expected to continue to fall [13] 3.2.6 Components - This week, the price of components decreased. The production schedule for June was about 50GW, a month - on - month decrease of 10%. It is expected that the demand will weaken further from July to August. The overall production schedule decline is slow, and the price is expected to continue to fall [14] 3.3 Investment Recommendations 3.3.1 Industrial Silicon - The futures market is relatively strong this period, but the fundamentals do not support a significant rebound in spot prices. If the market rebounds, it gives silicon factories a new hedging opportunity. It is expected that the market will oscillate at a low level, and short - selling with a light position can be considered after the rebound [3][15] 3.3.2 Polysilicon - Before the leading enterprises cut production, the fundamentals are bearish for the market. A short - term short and long - term long strategy can be considered. The key lies in the production - cut actions of leading enterprises. There will be a game between long and short positions in the market [3][15] 3.4 Hot News Collation - Pakistan plans to impose an 18% VAT on imported solar panels and photovoltaic cells in the 2025 - 2026 fiscal year to support local manufacturers. Argentina's first photovoltaic component factory is about to open, with an initial production capacity of 450MW and a target of 1GW in the future. Sichuan Province supports Yibin City to build a photovoltaic industrial park, with a total investment of 135.3 billion yuan in the photovoltaic industry chain [16][17] 3.5 Industry Chain High - frequency Data Tracking - The report provides various high - frequency data charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including price, profit, inventory, and production data [18][29][34]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side has an increase, the consumption side is weak, and the total inventory continues to rise. Most manufacturers face significant cost pressure, but the short - term price has stabilized. The price may oscillate weakly at the bottom [1][2][4]. - For polysilicon, recent spot transactions are scarce, the fundamentals are weak, and after the increase in warehouse receipts, the delivery game has weakened. Polysilicon is still in the process of bottom - seeking [4][6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Price**: As of the week of June 20, downstream demand was mainly for essential needs, spot market transactions were average, and the futures market oscillated within a range. The spot price stabilized. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 441 silicon was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, all remaining unchanged week - on - week. The closing price of the main contract 2509 on the previous Friday was 7390 yuan/ton, a 1.5% increase from the last trading day of the previous week. The total open interest of industrial silicon futures was about 577,000 lots [1]. - **Supply**: This week, industrial silicon supply continued to increase. The number of open furnaces in Xinjiang increased significantly, decreased in the Northeast, and remained stable in the Southwest. The total number of open furnaces increased by 5. The weekly output of sample manufacturers reached 36,600 tons, a 1655 - ton increase from the previous week. It is expected that the output in June will increase to about 350,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: Overall market demand remained weak this week. The polysilicon production increased slightly to 24,500 tons, a 700 - ton increase week - on - week. The overall operating rate of the organic silicon industry remained at 70.29%, with little change, and the weekly DMC output was 49,000 tons, a slight increase of 1400 tons. The aluminum alloy industry's demand for industrial silicon was mainly based on needs, and the order volume decreased slightly. In May 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 55,700 tons, an 8% decrease month - on - month and a 22% decrease year - on - year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 272,400 tons, a 10% decrease year - on - year [2]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, the statistical inventory of the silicon metal industry was 784,500 tons (including registered warehouse receipts), showing a slight decrease. The port inventory was 131,000 tons, the delivery inventory was 428,000 tons, and the factory inventory of sample enterprises was 225,500 tons. As of May 20, there were 54,623 registered warehouse receipts, equivalent to 273,115 tons of physical goods. The total supply - demand inventory may still increase, but the statistical inventory decreased slightly due to changes in the inventory structure [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: Electricity prices in some northwestern regions and the southwestern flood season decreased, and the prices of silica and silicon coal on the raw material side were unstable. The overall cost support was weak. Although the cost decreased due to the reduction in raw materials and southwestern electricity prices, most enterprises still faced significant cost pressure and were in a loss - making state, except for self - supplied power production enterprises [3]. Strategy - Overall, the supply side of industrial silicon has an increase, the consumption side is weak, and the total inventory continues to rise. Most manufacturers face significant cost pressure, but the short - term price has stabilized. The price may oscillate weakly at the bottom. It is recommended to focus on whether there are policy impacts at the price bottom. If the price rebounds, sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation, and upstream enterprises can sell - hedge at high prices [4]. Polysilicon Spot Market - **Price**: According to SMM statistics, this week, the price index of N - type polysilicon was 34 yuan/kg. The price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 33 - 36 yuan/kg, the mainstream price of mixed feedstock dropped to about 33 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type granular silicon was 31.5 yuan/kg. The price of polysilicon continued to decline. The main contract 2507 of polysilicon dropped significantly during the week, and the closing price on Friday was 31,700 yuan/ton, a 5.92% decrease from the previous week. The total open interest was 181,500 lots [4]. - **Supply**: Currently, all polysilicon manufacturers are operating at reduced loads. After the resumption of production in some bases, the weekly output increased. This week, the weekly output of polysilicon was 24,500 tons, a 700 - ton increase week - on - week. In June, some southwestern bases resumed production, leading to an increase in supply. However, there may be some production cuts in the northwest in the future, and the total supply in July may not change much. Currently, the price is low, and manufacturers face significant cost pressure, so the supply is uncertain [4][5]. - **Demand**: This week, the silicon wafer output was 12.9 GW, a 1.50% decrease week - on - week. The price of N - type 18X silicon wafers was 0.88 - 0.92 yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210RN silicon wafers was 1.07 - 1.3 yuan/piece. The price continued to decline, and the prices of second - and third - tier small factories were lowered. The market sentiment was still weak. The silicon wafer production plan in June did not change significantly, and some first - tier enterprises intended to cut production, but the amplitude was limited. The terminal demand was weak [5]. - **Inventory**: According to SMM statistics, the inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, and the silicon wafer inventory also decreased slightly. The latest polysilicon inventory was 262,000 tons, a 4.7% decrease month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.74 GW, a 3.1% decrease month - on - month. This week, the warehouse receipts changed little, with a total of 2600 lots, equivalent to 7800 tons. After the increase in warehouse receipts, the delivery game weakened [5]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon changed little. The estimated tax - free cash cost of granular silicon could be controlled at 25,000 yuan/ton. The tax - free cash cost of rod - shaped silicon varied among enterprises, ranging from 30,000 to 45,000 yuan/ton, and the cash cost at the supply - demand balance point was about 32,000 yuan/ton [5]. Strategy - Overall, recent spot transactions of polysilicon are scarce, the fundamentals are weak, and after the increase in warehouse receipts, the delivery game has weakened. Polysilicon is still in the process of bottom - seeking. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of joint production cuts and policy disturbances. The strategy is range - bound operation, and sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures market is expected to oscillate at the bottom, with potential for policy - related disturbances. For trading, a range - bound operation is recommended, and upstream producers are advised to sell and hedge at high prices. The polysilicon futures market is expected to have wide - range oscillations, and a range - bound operation is also recommended [3][7] Market Analysis and Strategy for Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On June 19, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weakly oscillating. The main contract 2509 opened at 7385 yuan/ton and closed at 7470 yuan/ton, a change of 35 yuan/ton (0.47%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 310357 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 55179 lots, a decrease of 441 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton [1] - On June 19, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 55.9 tons, a decrease of 1.3 tons from the previous week. The inventory in social general warehouses was 13.1 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons, and that in social delivery warehouses was 42.8 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons [1] - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 10200 - 10800 yuan/ton, with an average price significantly lower than the previous week. Shandong monomer enterprises' DMC quoted price was 10200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton from the previous week. Other domestic monomer enterprises' DMC quoted price was 10400 - 10800 yuan/ton. Due to the weakening cost support and sluggish off - season demand, DMC enterprises started to cut prices to sell goods, and downstream enterprises' purchases increased [2] Strategy - In the recent days, the industrial silicon futures market has been oscillating. Although the statistical inventory has slightly decreased, the total inventory is still expected to slightly increase. The inventory structure has changed. There is a possibility of increased production of polysilicon, but the supply of industrial silicon is also expected to increase. The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to policy disturbances [3] - For trading strategies, a range - bound operation is recommended, and upstream producers are advised to sell and hedge at high prices. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Market Analysis and Strategy for Polysilicon Market Analysis - On June 19, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures continued to decline, opening at 33000 yuan/ton and closing at 32720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.55% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 27613 lots (30435 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 57380 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 30.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 28.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 27.00 - 30.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 33.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 31.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg [4] - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory slightly increased, while silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest statistics showed that polysilicon inventory was 26.20, a decrease of 4.70% compared to the previous period, silicon wafer inventory was 18.74GW, a decrease of 3.10%. The weekly output of polysilicon was 24500.00 tons, an increase of 2.94%, and the output of silicon wafers was 12.90GW, a decrease of 1.53% [5] - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.90 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.26 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.05 yuan/piece [5] - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells was 0.37 yuan/W [5] - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W [6] Strategy - In the recent two days, the near - month contracts of polysilicon futures have significantly declined, while the far - month contracts have been relatively strong. On one hand, it is affected by the increased supply and weak consumption of near - month contracts. On the other hand, according to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association's meeting, there will be greater - scale production cuts in the third quarter, and the start - up ratio is expected to decrease by 10% - 15%. Policies to control "below - cost sales" have been implemented. The market is expected to oscillate in a wide range [7] - For trading strategies, a range - bound operation is recommended. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]

2025年06月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：累库有所加速，偏弱震荡延续 | 4 | | 工业硅：上方空间有限 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注市场情绪扰动 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 20 日 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM 【宏观及行业新闻】 1）3 月 3 日加拿大安大略省省长福特针对美国关税威胁，提出安大略省的矿产也是关税斗争的关键， 或将停止向美国出口镍。 2）根据钢联，4 月 27 日，中国恩菲 EPC 总承包的印尼 CNI 镍铁 RKEF 一期项目成功产出镍铁，标志 着项目正式进入试生产阶段。CNI 项目位于印尼东南苏拉威西省，生产品位 22%的镍铁，单条线年产金属 镍约 1.25 万吨。 3）根据钢联资讯，海外媒体报道印尼某重要金属加工园区内 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Macroscopically, the state is increasing investment in long - term data infrastructure construction. For industrial silicon, on the supply side, Yunnan and Sichuan are entering the wet season, with an advantage in electricity price cost. Last week, production increased slightly and capacity utilization began to rise, and large enterprises are ramping up production. On the demand side, the downstream of industrial silicon is mainly in the organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy fields. Organic silicon may see a slight increase in production this week, which is partly positive for industrial silicon. Polysilicon mainstream enterprises are reducing production, and demand for industrial silicon is declining. The aluminum alloy sector has some demand support but is in passive inventory reduction and hard to drive demand. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three downstream industries shows a flat trend. There is a decline in the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts, which brings great delivery pressure to the market. It is recommended to maintain a high - short strategy for the medium - to - long term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 7,470 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 310,357 lots, down 7,406 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 58,335 lots, down 12,874 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 55,620 lots; the spread between the July - August contracts is 35 yuan, down 5 yuan [2] 3.2现货市场 - The average price of oxygen - ventilated 553 silicon is 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 8,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 680 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the DMC spot price is 10,880 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Industrial silicon production in the month is 299,700 tons, down 36,050 tons; industrial silicon social inventory in the week is 587,000 tons, down 2,000 tons; industrial silicon imports in the month are 52,919.65 tons, up 2,211.36 tons; industrial silicon exports in the month are 71.51 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 43,600 tons, up 4,900 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.28 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 16,555.02 tons, down 1,621.87 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 66.28%, up 7.61 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 12.7 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is down 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - During the 18th (2025) International Solar Photovoltaic and Smart Energy & Energy Storage and Battery Technology and Equipment (Shanghai) Conference and Exhibition (SNEC), the chairman of Chint New Energy predicted this year's photovoltaic installation demand [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The price of industrial silicon oscillated strongly, mainly affected by the expected increase in the downstream polysilicon start - up and the overall macro - sentiment, with little change in the fundamentals. The polysilicon futures price dropped significantly on June 18, 2025, mainly due to the expected increase in production and weak consumption [1][2][3][6] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On June 18, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract 2509 opened at 7390 yuan/ton and closed at 7425 yuan/ton, a change of 80 yuan/ton (1.09%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 317763 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 55620 lots, a change of - 448 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton. Spot purchases were mainly for rigid demand [1] - The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 10400 - 10900 yuan/ton. The start - up of the organic silicon industry increased, but consumption was average, and prices were under pressure [1] Polysilicon - On June 18, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures dropped significantly, opening at 33960 yuan/ton and closing at 33370 yuan/ton, a - 2.00% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 30435 lots (43443 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 94724 lots [3] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 31.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 29.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 34.00 - 37.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 32.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg [3] - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased slightly, while silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.50 (a 2.23% change), silicon wafer inventory was 19.34GW (a - 3.40% change). The weekly polysilicon production was 23800.00 tons (an 8.00% change), and silicon wafer production was 13.10GW (a 0.40% change) [3] Silicon Wafer - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.91 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.27 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.06 yuan/piece [3] Battery Cell - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5] Component - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W (a - 0.01 yuan/W change), and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W (a - 0.01 yuan/W change) [5] Strategy Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon oscillated strongly. The strategy was mainly range - bound operation, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices [2] Polysilicon - The futures price dropped significantly, mainly affected by the expected increase in production and weak consumption. The strategy was range - bound operation, and sell hedging at high prices. There were no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6] Factors to Watch - The resumption and new capacity production in the Northwest and Southwest regions [4] - Changes in the start - up of polysilicon enterprises [4] - Policy disturbances [4] - Macro and capital sentiment [4] - The start - up of organic silicon enterprises [4]

工业硅产业日报 2025-06-18 需求支撑，但企业多按需补库，库存增长，价格走弱，处于被动去库存，难有拉动。整体而言，三大下游 行业对工业硅总需求呈现持平趋势。工业硅仓单数量有所下滑，庞大的仓单数量给盘面带来了巨大的交割 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 7425 | 65 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 317763 | -1130 | | | 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -45461 | -3159 广期所仓单(日,手) | 56068 | -755 | | | 7-8月合约价差 | 40 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 通氧553#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 8150 | 0 421#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 8700 | 0 | | | Si主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 725 | -65 DMC现货价(日,元/吨) | 10880 | -240 | | 上游情况 | 硅石平均价(日,元/吨) | 410 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, the recent continuous outflow of warehouse receipts, good shipment of spot - futures traders, and improved overall commodity sentiment have led to a stable rebound in the industrial silicon futures market. However, the fundamentals are weak. If the market rebounds significantly, upstream producers can consider selling hedges at high prices. The trading strategy is mainly range - bound operation [2]. - For polysilicon, the polysilicon futures market maintains a range - bound oscillation. Near - month contracts are strong due to delivery games, while far - month contracts are weak due to poor consumption expectations. The trading strategy is neutral [5]. 3. Summary by Industry Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 18, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was mainly volatile. The main contract 2509 opened at 7360 yuan/ton and closed at 7360 yuan/ton, a change of 80 yuan/ton (1.10%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2509 main contract at the close was 318,893 lots. On June 17, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts was 56,068 lots, a change of - 755 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming and Huangpu ports decreased slightly, while in Tianjin, the price of 553 silicon increased slightly and 3303 silicon decreased. Prices in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanghai, and the northwest remained stable, and the price of 97 silicon also remained stable [1]. - In terms of consumption, the quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,400 - 10,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The start - up of silicone monomer enterprises continued to increase. After the maintenance of monomer plants in the southwest and east China ended, the maintenance plants in north China were also about to resume. The start - up rate of the silicone monomer industry was expected to approach 70%. Although the start - up situation was good, consumption was average and prices were weak [1]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly range - bound operation, upstream producers sell hedges at high prices. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [2] Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 17, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures maintained a volatile pattern, opening at 34,230 yuan/ton and closing at 34,010 yuan/ton, a closing price change of - 0.07% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 43,443 lots (51,277 lots the previous day), and the trading volume on the day was 45,805 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The quoted price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 31.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 29.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 34.00 - 37.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 32.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased slightly, while silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest statistics showed that polysilicon inventory was 27.50 (a month - on - month change of 2.23%), silicon wafer inventory was 19.34GW (a month - on - month change of - 3.40%), polysilicon weekly output was 23,800.00 tons (a month - on - month change of 8.00%), and silicon wafer output was 13.10GW (a month - on - month change of 0.40%) [3][4]. - In the silicon wafer market, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.91 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.27 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.06 yuan/piece. - In the battery cell market, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W. - In the component market, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.70 - 0.70 yuan/W [4]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon have not improved substantially, and prices continue to be under pressure at low levels. The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase, while demand is weak, and short - term improvement is difficult. The polysilicon market remains in a state of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to remain low [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Chain Price Review - **Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Prices**: As of June 13, 2025, the closing price of the main industrial silicon futures contract was 7,280 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from June 6. Spot prices in most regions remained unchanged, with only a few showing minor fluctuations [8]. - **Polysilicon Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the main polysilicon futures contract in East China was 33,695 yuan/ton on June 13, down 3.01% from June 6. Spot prices of various polysilicon grades decreased, such as N - type material down 2.82% [8]. - **Organic Silicon and Related Product Prices**: As of June 13, the average price of DMC was 10,950 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan/ton from the previous period; the average price of 107 glue was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of silicone oil was 13,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [8][91]. - **Silicon Wafer Prices**: Prices of all sizes of silicon wafers decreased, with N - type 183mm silicon wafers down 3.19% [8]. - **Battery Cell Prices**: The price of single - crystal PERC M10 - 182mm battery cells was 0.27 yuan/watt on June 13, down 2.55% from the previous period [8]. - **Component Prices**: Component prices continued to decline, reflecting weak market sentiment [73]. - **Aluminum Alloy Prices**: As of June 13, the average price of ADC12 was 20,050 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous period; the average price of A356 was 21,150 yuan/ton, up 2.42% [8][103]. 3.2 Cost and Production Factors - **Raw Material Costs**: The price of silica stone continued to be weak, and the price of silicon coal and petroleum coke was also weak. The average price of carbon electrodes was 6,850 yuan/ton on June 13, unchanged from the previous period; the average price of graphite electrodes was 11,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [13][28][30]. - **Electricity Costs**: The alternation of flat and dry water periods led to a decline in electricity prices in Southwest China, which reduced the production cost of industrial silicon [18]. - **Industrial Silicon Production**: In the week of June 13, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises increased by 10 compared with the previous week. The production in Xinjiang increased slightly, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan increased due to the adjustment of electricity prices [35][36]. - **Polysilicon Production**: In May, polysilicon production was 9.61 million tons, up 0.07 million tons from the previous month but down 8.09 million tons year - on - year. As of June 12, the polysilicon inventory was 27.5 million tons, up 0.6 million tons. In June, the start - up of polysilicon enterprises increased and decreased, and production was expected to increase slightly [62]. - **Organic Silicon Production**: In May, the operating rate of Chinese DMC was 62.37%, up 3.79 percentage points from the previous month, and the output was 18.4 million tons. In June, the operating rate may decline due to maintenance in some regions [85]. - **Aluminum Alloy Production**: In the week of June 12, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 54.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous week; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.9%, unchanged from the previous week [100]. 3.3 Inventory and Market Outlook - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: As of June 12, the social inventory of industrial silicon was 57.2 million tons, down 1.5 million tons from the previous period; the total factory inventory of Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 23.57 million tons, down 0.32 million tons. As of June 13, the registered warehouse receipts on the exchange were 57,920 lots, equivalent to 28.96 million tons of spot [114]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase, while demand is weak, and the short - term price is expected to range from 7,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. The polysilicon market remains in a state of weak supply and demand, and the short - term price is expected to range from 32,000 - 36,000 yuan/ton [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]