1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report Steel Industry - Steel prices are difficult to decline in resonance considering the strong coal prices. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis. One can consider a long - carbon and short - iron arbitrage, such as going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge, and steel mill profits will continue to converge before the clearance of steel production and inventory [2] Ore Industry - The iron ore market is shifting from a balanced and tight state to a more relaxed one. Affected by the weak performance of finished steel, it is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis, with a reference range of 750 - 800. An arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore is recommended [5] Coke Industry - Coke futures showed an oscillating upward trend. The second - round price increase by mainstream coking enterprises is in progress. Due to factors such as tight coking coal supply and weak downstream demand, the price increase is not going smoothly. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low levels, with a reference range of 1650 - 1770, and consider a long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage [8] Coking Coal Industry - Coking coal futures showed an oscillating upward trend. The spot market is on an upward trend. Due to production cuts in some mines and a decline in Mongolian coal imports, supply is tight. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low levels, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally increased. For example, rebar 01 contract increased by 21 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 01 contract increased by 28 yuan/ton [2] Cost and Profit - Steel billet price increased by 10 yuan/ton, while some steel production costs decreased. Profits of various steel products generally decreased, with the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreasing by 6 yuan/ton [2] Supply - Daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.6 tons, a decline of 0.3%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 6.4 tons, a decline of 0.7%. Among them, rebar output decreased by 2.2 tons, a decline of 1.1%, and hot - rolled coil output decreased by 1.5 tons, a decline of 0.4% [2] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 18.5 tons, a decline of 1.2%. Rebar inventory decreased by 18.6 tons, a decline of 2.8%, while hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 6.3 tons, an increase of 1.5% [2] Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume increased by 0.6, an increase of 6.3%. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 124.0 tons, an increase of 16.5%. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 66.6 tons, an increase of 43.5%, and that of hot - rolled coils increased by 20.5 tons, an increase of 7.0% [2] Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The inventory cost of various iron ore powders increased slightly, and the basis of some varieties changed. For example, the basis of 01 contract for Jinbuba powder increased by 5.2 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.1% [6] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders in Rizhao Port increased slightly, with the Jinbuba powder increasing by 9.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.2% [6] Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 526.4 tons, a decline of 17.3%, while the global weekly shipping volume increased by 126.0 tons, an increase of 3.9% [6] Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6 tons, a decline of 0.2%. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 20.7 tons, a decline of 6.1% [6] Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 90.6 tons, an increase of 0.6%, while the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 63.5 tons, a decline of 0.7% [6] Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices increased, with the 01 contract increasing by 38 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.2%. The basis of some contracts decreased, and the spread between 01 and 05 contracts changed slightly [8] Supply - The weekly output of coke decreased, with the daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreasing by 0.8 tons, a decline of 1.3% [8] Demand - The weekly pig iron output decreased, with the pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreasing by 0.6 tons, a decline of 0.2% [8] Inventory Changes - Coke inventory decreased overall, with the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreasing by 6.6 tons, a decline of 10.3%, and that of 247 steel mills decreasing by 11.4 tons, a decline of 1.7% [8] Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap decreased, with a decrease of 1.0 tons [8] Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal futures prices increased, with the 01 contract increasing by 33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.8%. The basis of some contracts decreased, and the spread between 01 and 05 contracts changed slightly [8] Supply - The weekly output of coking coal decreased. Due to safety reasons and other factors, production in some mines decreased significantly. The output of raw coal decreased by 18.2 tons, and the output of clean coal decreased by 11.8 tons [8] Demand - The demand for coking coal is mainly reflected in the coke production, which decreased slightly. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.8 tons, a decline of 1.3% [8] Inventory Changes - Coking coal inventory decreased in some parts and increased in others. The clean coal inventory of Fenwei mines decreased by 11.0 tons, a decline of 9.9%, while the inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 38.3 tons, an increase of 4.0% [8]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively covers overnight market trends, important news, and financial market conditions across various sectors, including commodities, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It analyzes the impact of geopolitical events, policy changes, and economic data on market movements. Summary by Category Overnight Market Trends - **Commodity Futures**: US oil and Brent crude rose due to expected sanctions on Russia and a decrease in US EIA crude inventories. International precious metals also increased, supported by multiple factors. London base metals mostly rose, and domestic futures contracts had a mix of gains and losses [3][4]. - **Financial Markets**: A-shares had a narrow - range oscillation, while the Hong Kong stock market declined. The report also mentioned policy initiatives in Shenzhen and Hong Kong, as well as the investment outlooks of well - known fund managers [35]. Important News Macro News - Russia's Federal Council abolished the "Plutonium Management and Disposal Agreement" with the US. - From October 1 - 19, national passenger car retail sales decreased by 6% year - on - year but increased by 7% compared to the previous month. - Trump's peace efforts faced setbacks as Russia launched attacks on Ukraine. - China's foreign - related payment and receipt scale reached a record high in the first three quarters [8][9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The refined oil inventory in Fujairah Port, UAE, increased. - China's methanol port inventory rose. - US crude exports and production decreased, and commercial crude inventory declined. - The US sanctioned Russian oil companies [11][12][15]. Metal Futures - The new chairman of LBMA called for revitalizing the UK's gold futures trading. - Century Aluminum's subsidiary halted a production line due to a fault. - China's September refined copper and alumina production increased. - Polysilicon production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter. - Environmental controls affected lead - related transportation in Hebei. - China's September industrial silicon production increased. - Angola's first large - scale copper mine is about to start production [17][18][21]. Black - Series Futures - Some coal mines in Wuhai and Qipanjing stopped production, and steel mills in Northeast China had mixed production status. - Inner Mongolia closed 4.3 - meter coke ovens and implemented cement production curbs. - Vale's iron ore production and sales increased in Q3. - National key steel product production, inventory, and demand data showed changes [23][26]. Agricultural Futures - Indonesia's biodiesel consumption increased. - US soybeans were stored instead of exported. - Malaysia's palm oil exports and production increased. - Russia lowered wheat export tariffs. - China's pork prices may have reached the annual low. - Brazil's soybean production, export, and crushing volume are expected to increase [28][30][33]. Financial Markets Stocks - A - shares had a narrow - range movement with sector rotation. The Hong Kong stock market declined. - Shenzhen introduced a plan to promote high - quality M&A. - HKEX is collaborating on multiple projects with the mainland. - Well - known fund managers adjusted their portfolios [35]. Industry News - China released a new energy vehicle technology roadmap. - Small and medium - sized banks cut deposit rates. - The game version numbers were released. - China's geographic information industry is expected to grow. - Civil aviation industry data showed growth. - Nanjing introduced a housing provident fund policy for multi - child families [39][41]. Overseas News - US federal debt exceeded $38 trillion, and the government shutdown continued. - Trump canceled a meeting with Putin, and the EU imposed new sanctions on Russia. - Japan plans new economic measures, and India may reach a trade deal with the US. - The Fed plans to relax bank capital requirements. - Japan's exports increased, and UK inflation data affected market expectations [44][49]. International Stocks - US stocks declined due to trade concerns and disappointing earnings. - European stocks had a mixed performance. - Singapore plans to support listed companies. - Tesla and IBM released their Q3 financial reports [50][51]. Commodities - Oil prices rose, precious metals increased, and base metals mostly went up. - Vale's iron ore production reached a high level [52][54]. Bonds - The domestic bond market had a narrow - range movement, and US bond yields declined. - Indonesia plans to issue RMB - denominated bonds, and SoftBank plans to raise funds through bond issuance [55][60]. Foreign Exchange - China's foreign - related payment and receipt scale reached a record high. - The RMB and other currencies had exchange rate fluctuations [61]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - A series of economic data will be released, including Japan's stock and bond transactions, China's RMB payment share, and various countries' inflation and consumer confidence data. - Multiple central bank events and important conferences are scheduled, such as China's central bank open - market operations and international industry conferences [64][66].

Core Insights - The Social Security Fund's holdings at the end of Q3 included 33 stocks, totaling 625 million shares with a market value of 13.07 billion yuan [1] - The fund maintained positions in 6 stocks, initiated positions in 7 stocks, increased holdings in 10 stocks, and reduced holdings in 10 stocks during the quarter [1] Holdings Overview - The stock with the highest number of Social Security Fund shareholders is Sanhe Tree, with three funds appearing among the top ten shareholders, holding a total of 15.02 million shares, accounting for 2.04% of the company's circulating shares [1] - Other companies with two funds holding shares include China Jushi, Haida Group, Xin Qiang Lian, Ying Shi Network, and Baiya Shares [1] - A total of 17 stocks had holdings exceeding 10 million shares, with Poly Development having the largest holding of 124 million shares, which increased by 19.86 million shares in Q3 [1] Shareholding Proportions - Baiya Shares had the highest proportion of holdings by the Social Security Fund at 4.34%, with two funds increasing their holdings by over 3.18 million shares in Q3 [2] - China National Pharmaceutical Group followed with a holding proportion of 4.12% [2] - New stocks added included Jinling Mining with 8.81 million shares, followed by Blue Science High-tech and Electric Connection Technology with 7.64 million and 7.60 million shares, respectively [2] Market Performance - The average increase for new stocks held by the Social Security Fund since October is 0.28%, with Jinling Mining leading at a 10.36% increase [2] - Other notable increases include Koyuan Wisdom and Blue Science High-tech, which rose by 7.18% and 6.04%, respectively [2] Earnings Performance - Among the new stocks, six reported year-on-year net profit growth, with Blue Science High-tech turning a profit with a net profit of 33.31 million yuan [3] - Jinling Mining and Yuxin Electronics reported net profit growth of 60.21% and 47.09%, respectively [3] - In addition to new stocks, ten stocks saw increased holdings from the Social Security Fund, with Poly Development seeing the largest increase of 19.86 million shares [3] Growth in Holdings - The stocks with the most significant increases in holding proportions include Sanhe Tree and Xin Qiang Lian, with increases of 1.33 and 1.31 percentage points, respectively [3] - Nine stocks among those increased by the fund reported year-on-year net profit growth, with Xin Qiang Lian achieving a turnaround with a total revenue of 3.618 billion yuan, up 84.10% year-on-year [3]

从 2005 年被迫接受日方敲定的 71.5% 涨价，到如今主动引导定价规则，中方的角色转变背后是战略布 局的长期积淀。这不仅守护了国内产业利益，更是维护金融主权与经济安全的重要实践，为全球大宗商 品贸易公平发展提供了新路径。 2025 年 10 月初，中方矿产资源集团要求国内钢厂暂停采购必和必拓所有美元计价的海运铁矿石，这一 举措迅速引发全球大宗商品市场震动。作为消耗全球 75% 以上海运铁矿石的核心买家，中方此次行动 绝非偶然的商业调整，而是对长期定价不公的主动回应，彰显了在资源贸易中掌握主动权的战略决心。 长期以来，国际三大矿商依托垄断地位，通过机制不透明的普氏指数操控价格。该指数仅依赖 30 至 40 家机构询价，不锚定实际成交，2025 年 6 月曾出现较中方港口现货价溢价 12.7% 的情况。这种定价模 式让中方钢企承受巨大成本压力，2024 年中方钢企销售利润率仅 0.71%，而澳大利亚矿企利润率超 100%，形成鲜明反差。改变始于 2022 年中方矿产资源集团的成立。这家总部位于雄安的央企整合了国 内分散的采购力量，结束了此前钢企 "各自为战、相互抬价" 的困境，成为铁矿石贸易中的 "超级买 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The steel market is currently focused on the Fourth Plenary Session. Steel prices may experience a slight rebound, but the weak fundamentals limit the upside potential, and a subsequent decline is likely. Short - term outlook is for a rebound, while the medium - to - long - term remains weak [3]. - The iron ore market is operating weakly under macro - sentiment and fundamental pressures. The supply is strong, and demand is weak. The price may be supported if there are positive policy signals [18]. - The coking coal market has strong bottom support due to tight resources and policy expectations, but the rebound space is limited by downstream contradictions. The price rebound depends on the downstream steel supply - demand balance [30]. - The ferroalloy market is under pressure due to weak downstream demand and high inventory. Without unexpected stimulus policies, prices will remain under pressure [48]. - The soda ash market has supply pressure in the long - term. Although exports are better than expected, high inventory restricts the price, with limited downside due to cost support [61]. - The glass market has weak demand and high inventory, and prices are suppressed. The implementation of the coal - to - gas project in Shahe and production line ignition plans need to be monitored [86]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices and Spreads** - On October 22, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3068 yuan/ton, up from 3047 yuan/ton on the 21st. The 01 - 05 month - spread was - 52 yuan/ton, up from - 57 yuan/ton [4]. - The hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3247 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up from 3219 yuan/ton on the 21st. The 01 - 05 month - spread was - 12 yuan/ton, up from - 17 yuan/ton [4]. - The rebar - to - iron ore ratio and rebar - to - coke ratio remained stable on the 22nd compared to the 21st [15]. - **Spot Prices and Basis** - The aggregated rebar price in China was 3215 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up slightly from 3212 yuan/ton on the 21st. The 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 142 yuan/ton, down from 153 yuan/ton [7]. - The aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up from 3270 yuan/ton on the 21st. The 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 33 yuan/ton, down from 51 yuan/ton [9]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Basis** - On October 22, 2025, the 01 contract closed at 774 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan from the 21st. The 01 basis was 7.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan from the 21st [19]. - The price of Rizhao PB powder was 779 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up 2 yuan from the 21st [19]. - **Fundamentals** - The daily average pig - iron output was 240.95 million tons on October 17, 2025, down 0.59 million tons week - on - week. The 45 - port inventory was 14278.27 million tons, up 253.77 million tons week - on - week [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads** - On October 22, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1238 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan week - on - week. The coking coal 09 - 01 month - spread was 153 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the 21st [35]. - The coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1594 yuan/ton, unchanged from the 21st. The coke 09 - 01 month - spread was 220 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan from the 21st [35]. - **Spot Prices and Profits** - The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1550 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up 20 yuan week - on - week. The immediate coking profit was 31 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the 21st [36]. Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron** - On October 22, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 8 yuan, down 14 yuan from the 21st. The silicon iron 01 - 05 month - spread was - 60 yuan, down 24 yuan from the 21st [49]. - The silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5280 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the 21st [49]. - **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 220 yuan on the 22nd, down 64 yuan from the 21st. The silicon manganese 01 - 05 month - spread was - 38 yuan, down 4 yuan from the 21st [52]. - The silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton, unchanged from the 21st [52]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - On October 22, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1308 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the 21st. The 05 - 09 month - spread was - 62 yuan, up 1 yuan from the 21st [62]. - **Spot Prices** - The heavy - soda ash market price in North China was 1300 yuan/ton on the 22nd, unchanged from the 21st. The heavy - soda ash to light - soda ash price difference in North China was 100 yuan/ton [65]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads** - On October 22, 2025, the glass 05 contract closed at 1241 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the 21st. The 05 - 09 month - spread was - 89 yuan, down 3 yuan from the 21st [86]. - **Sales and Production** - On October 21, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 59%, in Hubei was 86%, in East China was 84%, and in South China was 98% [87].

Market Review - Iron ore futures for the main contract 2601 experienced a slight increase, closing at 769.5 yuan with a rise of 0.13% [1] Fundamental Summary - Australian iron ore producers exported 62 million tons of iron ore through two major ports in Western Australia in September, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, indicating a shift in export market structure with reduced shipments to China and increased exports to Northeast Asia [2] - Vale reported a total iron ore production of 94.4 million tons for Q3 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.9% and a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. Total sales reached 86 million tons, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.21% and a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [2] - BHP's Q3 2025 report indicated a production of 70.2 million tons of iron ore from its Pilbara operations, showing a quarter-on-quarter decline of 9.3% and a year-on-year decline of 1.9% [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Everbright Futures, both Australian and Brazilian shipments have seen slight recoveries, while other countries also show increased shipments. However, iron and steel production decreased slightly, and steel mill profitability continues to decline, with rebar inventory pressures persisting. The overall sentiment in the black commodity market is weak, although iron ore demand remains high, providing significant price support [3] - Zhengxin Futures noted that a potential visit by U.S. officials to China in early 2026 has led to a minor rebound in commodity prices, but weak demand for finished steel and continuous accumulation of port inventories are limiting the rebound in iron ore prices. The supply-demand structure for iron ore has slightly improved, with market attention on the accelerated progress of the West Moudou project, which may lead to increased supply [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel: Oscillation [2] - Rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Strong bias oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong bias oscillation [4] - Log: Strong bias treatment [5] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Weak bias oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Palm oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillation bias short [8] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation bias short [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation bias short [8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation bias strong [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views - The iron ore market continues to face an oversupply situation, but short-term prices are supported by macro sentiment. The coal and coke market is affected by macro policies and supply concerns, with the core contradiction being the low profit level of steel mills. The steel market has supply and demand contradictions and is expected to continue to oscillate and adjust. The glass market is weak, and short-term prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The financial market shows short-term rebounds and increased bullish sentiment, with suggestions to hold long positions in stock index futures. The precious metal market is expected to show strong bias oscillation due to various factors such as interest rate policies and geopolitical risks. The forestry product market has positive factors for logs, while pulp prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom. The oil and fat market is expected to continue wide-range oscillation, and the meal market is expected to oscillate with a short bias. The agricultural product market for live pigs is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. The soft commodity market for rubber is expected to show wide-range oscillation, and the polyester market has different trends for each product [2][3][4][5][8][9]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Supply is expected to remain high, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse. However, short-term prices are supported by macro sentiment. Four main lines should be closely monitored for potential price revaluation [2]. - Coking coal: Affected by macro policy expectations and supply concerns, the core contradiction is the low profit level of steel mills. The second round of coke price increases is difficult to implement [2]. - Rolled steel and rebar: Supply pressure is relatively large, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery in October. The high supply and continuous inventory accumulation of finished products bring pressure, and prices need to cooperate with rapid inventory reduction to stabilize [2]. - Glass: The spot market is weak, and the possibility of cold repair is increasing. The demand is dragged down by the real estate sector, and short-term prices are expected to oscillate weakly [2]. Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: The market shows short-term rebounds and increased bullish sentiment, with suggestions to hold long positions [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds is down, and the market shows a small rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver are expected to show strong bias oscillation due to factors such as interest rate policies, geopolitical risks, and physical demand [4]. Forestry Products - Logs: Spot prices are stable, costs are expected to rise, demand is marginally improved, and the delivery specifications are expected to be optimized. Overall, logs are treated with a strong bias [5]. - Pulp: Spot prices are stable, costs support is weakening, and demand is poor. Prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom [5]. Oil and Fat Market - Oil and fat: The market is affected by factors such as high inventory, production changes, and policy expectations. It is expected to continue wide-range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the sowing of Brazilian soybeans and the production and sales of palm oil [5]. - Meal: The market faces seasonal supply pressure and uncertain factors in South American soybean growth. It is expected to oscillate with a short bias, and attention should be paid to the sowing of Brazilian soybeans and the import and arrival of soybeans [8]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. The price of large pigs is relatively firm, while the price of standard pigs may be under pressure. Short-term prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is affected by weather conditions, and demand is improving. Inventory is decreasing, and prices are expected to show wide-range oscillation [9]. - Polyester products: Each product has different trends. PX, MEG, PR, and PF are on the sidelines, PTA oscillates, and the market for polyester bottle chips rebounds weakly [9].

Group 1: Hot News - European leaders issued a joint statement supporting a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict through negotiations, endorsing Trump's proposal of an immediate ceasefire and using the current contact line as the starting point for talks, and reaffirming that international borders should not be changed by force [2] - From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 1.45% month-on-month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.24% month-on-month, and production increased by 2.71% month-on-month [2] - In 2026, the total tariff-rate quota for fertilizer imports in China is 13.65 million tons, including 3.3 million tons of urea [2] - Rio Tinto has stockpiled about 2 million tons of high-grade iron ore at the Simandou project in Guinea and will ship it in mid - November. WCS, which operates another Simandou iron mine, started hoarding ore in September. Simandou is expected to produce 120 million tons of iron ore annually at full capacity [2] - The zinc market on the London Metal Exchange (LME) is facing its worst supply squeeze in decades, with the premium of spot zinc over three - month futures soaring to $323 per ton, the highest since at least 1997 [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on are urea, lithium carbonate, silver, crude oil, and PP [4] - In the holiday overseas market, the night - session price changes of commodity futures main contracts show that non - metallic building materials rose 2.96%, precious metals 31.40%, oilseeds and oils 10.12%, soft commodities 2.71%, non - ferrous metals 20.62%, coal, coke, and steel ore 13.02%, energy 3.05%, chemicals 11.31%, grains 1.15%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.67% [4] Group 3: Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, Wind energy, Wind coal, coke, and steel ore, Wind non - ferrous metals, Wind commodity composites, Wind soft commodities, Wind oilseeds and oils, Wind precious metals, and Wind non - metallic building materials [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.36%, the SSE 50 rose 1.09%, the CSI 300 rose 1.53%, the CSI 500 rose 1.64%, the S&P 500 was flat, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.65%, the German DAX rose 0.29%, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.27%, and the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.25% [6] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.05%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.05%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.04% [6] - In the commodity category, the CRB commodity index fell 0.36%, WTI crude oil rose 0.96%, London spot gold fell 5.31%, LME copper fell 0.89%, and the Wind commodity index rose 1.99% [6] - In other categories, the US dollar index rose 0.35%, and the CBOE volatility index was flat [6]

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 10 月 22 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com | | 表2：10月21日黑色系期货持仓情况（单位：手、%） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前 20 多头 | 前 20 空头 | 前 20 多头 | 前 20 空头 | 多空 | 偏离度 | | | 持仓 | 持仓 | 持仓变化 | 持仓变化 | 对比 | | | RB2601 | 1,175,046 | 1,246,557 | -2,203 | -16,676 | 14,473 | 1.20% | | ...

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