1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the market shows a complex and diverse trend. After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, some macro - favorable factors are gradually implemented, but different sectors have different performances. Some sectors are affected by supply - demand fundamentals, while others are influenced by policy and cost factors [2][9][20]. - In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures are affected by Sino - US consensus and market expectations, and there are opportunities for short - term option operations; treasury bond futures are expected to have short - term trading opportunities with the implementation of risk - preference factors; precious metals are affected by geopolitical and economic factors and are expected to have a long - term bull market [2][6][9]. - In the commodity futures market, different varieties have different trends. For example, copper has long - term supply - demand contradictions to support the price, while aluminum is affected by macro and fundamental factors and maintains a high - level shock [20][26]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the market digested the expectations and adjusted. The A - share market declined, and the four major stock index futures contracts also fell. It is recommended to try to sell put options at the support level or construct a bullish call spread [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Negative factors are gradually implemented, and the bond market sentiment is enhanced. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy [6][8]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, geopolitical concerns resurfaced, and precious metals fluctuated and rebounded. In the long - term, they are expected to have a bull market, while in the short - term, gold may face downward pressure, and silver maintains a shock pattern [9][12]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The spot market is cold, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [14][15]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The bullish expectations of interest rate cuts and tariffs are fulfilled, and the price fluctuates at a high level. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the price, and in the short - term, it is affected by demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 87,000 [20]. - **Alumina**: The spot price in the north shows signs of stopping falling, and the futures price stabilizes at a low level. The price is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short - term, and the main contract fluctuates between 2,750 - 2,950 [20][23]. - **Aluminum**: The price is strong, affected by macro and fundamental factors, and is expected to maintain a high - level shock. The main contract reference range is 20,800 - 21,400 [24][26]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price is firm, and the inventory accumulates slightly. The price is expected to maintain a strong shock, and the main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,800 [26][28]. - **Zinc**: The spot transaction is average, and the price fluctuates. The supply increase may be limited, and the demand is stable. The price is expected to maintain a shock, and the main contract reference range is 21,800 - 22,800 [31][32]. - **Tin**: Powell's hawkish attitude on the December interest rate cut may cause the short - term price to fall. It is recommended to buy on dips, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [32][35]. - **Nickel**: After the Sino - US meeting, the macro is stable, and the price fluctuates. The main contract reference range is 118,000 - 126,000 [35][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price fluctuates, and the supply pressure increases. The main contract reference range is 12,500 - 13,000 [39][42]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price center moves up, and the demand is strong. The main contract reference range is 83,000 - 87,000 [42][45]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The supply and demand are neutral, and the inventory pressure is not large. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply of coking coal and reduce positions at high - pressure levels [47][48]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price falls after rising. It is recommended to close long positions and pay attention to the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [49][51]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is strong, and the downstream replenishment demand is warm. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [52][55]. - **Coke**: The mainstream coke enterprises start the third round of price increase, and the cost is supported by coking coal. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [56][59]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: China's confidence in purchasing US soybeans is enhanced, and the near - month soybeans have cost support. The domestic soybean meal trend is expected to be strong [60][62]. - **Pigs**: The entry of secondary fattening slows down, and the pig price tends to fluctuate. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage [63][64]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure still exists, and the price fluctuates weakly. The port price is affected by inventory and cost [65].

Economic Overview - The city's GDP for the first three quarters reached 11,189.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4% [1] - The primary industry added value was 153.1 billion yuan, growing by 2.9%; the secondary industry added value was 4,173.7 billion yuan, growing by 5.6%; and the tertiary industry added value was 6,863.0 billion yuan, growing by 5.3% [1] Industrial Performance - The agricultural sector showed stable growth, with total output value in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery increasing by 3.2% year-on-year [2] - The industrial economy saw an increase of 8.8% in the added value of above-scale industries, surpassing the provincial average by 0.4 percentage points [2] - Key industries such as automotive and electronics experienced significant growth, with respective increases of 19.2% and 11.8%, contributing 5.7 percentage points to the overall industrial growth [2] Service Sector Development - The service sector is developing well, with above-scale service industry revenue increasing by 10.4% year-on-year, exceeding the provincial average by 2.4 percentage points [2] - Nine out of ten major service industry categories reported year-on-year growth, with cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors growing by 12.1% and transportation and logistics by 9.4% [2] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.5% year-on-year, with significant contributions from projects over 100 million yuan, which saw a 12.8% increase [3] - Private investment rose by 9.5%, higher than the provincial average, contributing 5.4 percentage points to overall investment growth [3] - Retail sales of consumer goods reached 4,903.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, driven by strong demand in sports and cultural products [3] Foreign Trade and Public Spending - The city's import and export volume reached 4,332.5 billion yuan, growing by 25.3% year-on-year, outpacing the provincial growth rate [4] - Public budget expenditures in key areas such as energy conservation and transportation saw significant increases, with growth rates of 71.4% and 49.2% respectively [4] Innovation and New Industries - The city is focusing on integrating technological and industrial innovation, with high-tech industries seeing added value growth of 10.2% [5] - New products such as lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles have shown substantial production increases, with growth rates of 49.5% and 15.0% respectively [5][6] - E-commerce and new consumption models are rapidly emerging, with online retail sales increasing by 19.8% year-on-year [6]

Group 1: Cultural and Tourism Consumption - The double festival period in October has led to a surge in domestic tourism, with 888 million trips taken and total spending reaching 809 billion yuan [2] - There is a shift in consumer preferences from popular tourist spots to more intimate and unique experiences, reflecting a growing demand for quality travel [2][3] - Various regions are enhancing their tourism offerings through technology and personalized services, contributing to a vibrant tourism market [3] Group 2: Agricultural Production - Efforts are being made across various regions to ensure timely harvesting and planting, with over 200,000 harvesting machines mobilized in Henan province alone [4] - The agricultural sector is expected to achieve a good harvest this year, with over 85% of autumn grain already harvested and an increase in high-yield crops like corn [4][5] - Technological advancements in agriculture are improving crop yields and operational efficiency, showcasing a trend towards modernization in farming practices [5] Group 3: Foreign Trade Resilience - The 138th Canton Fair attracted nearly 240,000 foreign buyers, indicating a 6.8% increase from the previous session, showcasing the resilience of China's foreign trade [7] - In the first three quarters, China's goods trade reached 33.61 trillion yuan, reflecting a 4% year-on-year growth, driven by structural optimization and technological innovation [7] - Various regions are enhancing their foreign trade capabilities through improved logistics and streamlined customs processes, supporting the growth of exports [7][8] Group 4: Major Project Construction - Major construction projects are accelerating as the economy enters the fourth quarter, with significant investments in infrastructure and technology [9] - Various regions are implementing new financial tools to support major projects, addressing capital shortages and stimulating related credit growth [9][10] - The ongoing projects are expected to provide strong momentum for achieving annual economic targets and laying a solid foundation for future growth [10]

Core Insights - Rural e-commerce is a crucial pathway for farmers' wealth, addressing traditional income challenges and promoting sustainable income growth [1] - The development of rural e-commerce faces issues such as lack of unified quality standards, weak market connection capabilities of small farmers, and imbalanced profit distribution [1] - The central government's 2025 policy aims to accelerate the construction of modern circulation networks for agricultural products and support collaborative supply chain development [1] Group 1: Development Strategies - Pujin County has implemented measures such as standardizing agricultural production, establishing collective e-commerce service companies, and utilizing live streaming to enhance rural e-commerce development [1] - The county has developed over 600,000 acres of late-maturing citrus, kiwi, and tea, promoting organic farming practices and achieving a 30% premium on agricultural products [1] - By 2024, Pujin County has established a comprehensive cold chain system covering 27 provincial regions, creating a full-chain income mechanism from planting to logistics to sales [1] Group 2: Quality Improvement Initiatives - The village of Shizishu has focused on a collaborative model involving "village collective + e-commerce + agricultural social services + small farmers" to enhance product quality and market access [2] - A traceability system has been implemented, allowing consumers to access detailed agricultural records and testing reports, thereby increasing market trust and encouraging standardized production [2] - The village collective has formed an e-commerce service company to unify resources and enhance small farmers' market connection capabilities through a standardized service model [2] Group 3: Revenue Generation Models - Baiyun Village in Chaoyang Lake Town has adopted a model combining "party building + e-commerce live streaming + enterprises + agricultural social services + small farmers" to empower farmers and increase income [3] - The village has established a division of labor where the village secretary leads live sales, enhancing product credibility and consumer experience [3] - A diversified profit distribution model has been created, ensuring small farmers share in the added value of the e-commerce industry [3] Group 4: Systemic Mechanisms - The case study of Pujin County highlights the importance of a systemic mechanism for value creation, organizational collaboration, and profit sharing to empower small farmers [4] - Standardized production and product value enhancement are foundational for achieving brand premium in e-commerce [4] - Organizational empowerment is essential to overcome the challenges faced by small farmers, improving their market connection capabilities [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The agricultural product market shows a mixed trend. Pigs, palm oil, corn, and jujubes are in a downward or weakening state, while soybeans, cotton, apples, eggs, and sugar are in an upward or stable state, each influenced by different supply - demand and technical factors [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Hog - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of hogs has fallen sharply and returned to a downward trend due to an increase in pig supply, a high total inventory in the breeding end, weak market demand, and strong alternative consumption [2]. - Technical analysis: The futures price has fallen below the 12,000 mark and is below the moving - average system. It is recommended to short lightly on rallies, with support at 11,700 and resistance at 12,000 [2]. (2) Soybean Meal - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of soybean meal has continued to rise. Sino - US economic and trade relations have improved, the cost of imported soybeans has increased, the downstream feed demand is in the peak season, and the oil mills have the intention to support prices [3]. - Technical analysis: The contract has broken through the 40 - day moving average upward, and it is recommended to hold light long positions, with support at 2,960 and resistance at 3,020 [3]. (3) Palm Oil - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of palm oil has continued to fall. The production in Malaysia and Indonesia has increased, the export growth has narrowed, the domestic inventory has accumulated, and the B50 biodiesel plan in Indonesia is uncertain [5]. - Technical analysis: The contract is below the moving - average system, and it is recommended to short lightly, with support at 8,758 and resistance at 8,900 [5]. (4) Cotton - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of cotton has adjusted slightly after rising first. Sino - US economic and trade relations have improved, but the ICE cotton futures price has fallen back. The domestic Xinjiang production area has had adverse weather, and the demand side has stable spinning mill start - up [7]. - Technical analysis: The contract has broken through the 40 - day moving average upward, and it is recommended to hold long positions, with support at 13,530 and resistance at 13,700 [7]. (5) Apple - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of apples has risen strongly. The expected output of new apples this year has decreased, the overall quality has declined, and the high - quality fruit is scarce. The market is worried about post - harvest storage quality and deliverable supply [9]. - Technical analysis: The contract is above the moving - average system, and it is recommended to hold light long positions, with support at 9,100 and resistance at 9,300 [9]. (6) Corn - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of corn has continued to decline in a volatile manner. Sino - US economic and trade relations have improved, which may lead to an increase in imported corn. The new domestic corn supply has increased seasonally, but there is also policy support [11]. - Technical analysis: The contract is below the moving - average system, and it is recommended to short lightly, with support at 2,100 and resistance at 2,120 [11]. (7) Jujube - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of jujubes has continued to fall sharply. New jujubes are about to be listed, and the inventory of old jujubes is high, resulting in sufficient supply [13]. - Technical analysis: The contract has reached a new low in more than three months, and it is recommended to hold short positions, with support at 10,170 and resistance at 10,400 [13]. (8) Egg - Market situation: The main 2512 contract of eggs has fluctuated narrowly after a sharp rise. The weather has cooled, which is conducive to egg storage and transportation. The demand for pickled products and holiday stock - up is expected to boost prices, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve [15]. - Technical analysis: The contract is above the 40 - day moving average, and it is recommended to hold light long positions, with support at 3,128 and resistance at 3,184 [15]. (9) Sugar - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of sugar has adjusted downward. The peak period of domestic sugar imports has passed, and the import pressure has decreased. However, the production of beet sugar in the north continues, and the production season of cane sugar is approaching, with an expected increase in production [17]. - Technical analysis: The contract has encountered resistance near the 40 - day moving average, but it is still in a rebound rhythm. It is recommended to hold long positions, with support at 5,468 and resistance at 5,500 [17].

Group 1: Cultural and Tourism Consumption - The dual holidays of National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival have significantly boosted domestic tourism, with 888 million trips taken and total spending reaching 809 billion yuan [5][6] - There is a shift in consumer preferences from traditional sightseeing to deeper experiences, with travelers seeking less crowded, more intimate destinations [6][7] - Various regions are enhancing tourism offerings through extended hours, new technologies, and personalized services to meet the growing demand for quality travel experiences [6][7] Group 2: Agricultural Production - Local governments are mobilizing resources to ensure timely harvesting and planting, with over 200,000 agricultural machines deployed in Henan alone to mitigate adverse weather effects [10][11] - The agricultural sector is expected to achieve another bumper harvest this year, with over 85% of autumn crops already harvested and significant increases in high-yield crops like corn [11] - Technological advancements in agriculture are improving crop yields and operational efficiency, contributing to a positive outlook for food security [11] Group 3: Foreign Trade - The 138th Canton Fair attracted nearly 240,000 foreign buyers, marking a 6.8% increase from the previous session, showcasing the resilience and optimization of China's foreign trade structure [15] - In the first three quarters of the year, China's goods trade reached 33.61 trillion yuan, reflecting a 4% year-on-year growth [15] - Various regions are leveraging technological innovations to enhance their foreign trade capabilities, with significant improvements in logistics and customs efficiency [15] Group 4: Major Project Construction - Major construction projects are accelerating as the economy enters the fourth quarter, with significant investments in infrastructure and technology [19][20] - New financial tools are being deployed to support urban renewal and essential services, addressing capital shortages for key projects [19] - The construction of LNG vessels and high-speed rail lines is indicative of the ongoing investment in critical sectors, contributing to economic stability and growth [18][19]

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Global Cooperation - The 2025 Bund Summit in Shanghai focused on the theme "Embracing Change: New Order, New Technology," discussing economic, financial, and governance issues amid global restructuring and technological revolution [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a 4.5% economic growth rate for the Asia-Pacific region in 2025, with China's growth forecast at 4.8%, reflecting an increase of 0.8 percentage points from previous estimates [2] - Global financial leaders emphasized the importance of cooperation and shared opportunities, highlighting China's commitment to high-quality development and mutual benefits in international relations [2] Group 2: Green Finance and Environmental Leadership - The release of the "Natural and Biodiversity Finance" report at the summit showcased China's role in ecological protection and financial innovation [3] - China is recognized as a global leader in clean energy technologies, including solar, wind, and electric vehicles, contributing significantly to global climate change efforts [3][4] - The development of biodiversity-friendly financial products, such as loans for offshore photovoltaic projects, illustrates China's commitment to integrating ecological and economic interests [3] Group 3: Technological Innovation and Economic Transformation - Discussions at the summit highlighted China's advancements in artificial intelligence and the importance of data-driven industries for economic transformation [5] - The shift from cash to digital payments in China has revolutionized consumer behavior and accelerated financial inclusion, showcasing the impact of fintech on the economy [6] - Experts noted that China's strong emphasis on technology research and development is crucial for achieving high-quality economic growth, with a focus on nurturing engineering talent and entrepreneurial spirit [6][7] Group 4: International Relations and Collaborative Opportunities - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin emphasized the benefits of constructive U.S.-China relations, advocating for collaboration in addressing challenges like AI, climate change, and terrorism [7] - The summit reflected a collective understanding that global cooperation is essential for navigating future challenges and achieving sustainable development [7]

Group 1 - A recent survey indicates that over half of Americans believe the U.S. should cooperate and engage with China, a significant increase from 40% in 2024, marking the first time since 2019 that a majority favors a "friendly" policy towards China [1] - The survey results also show that most Americans oppose increasing tariffs on Chinese imports, reflecting a strategic dilemma in U.S. tariff policy, as the ongoing trade war has resulted in substantial costs for the U.S. despite the previous administration's firm stance on tariffs [1] - Since the return of the Trump administration in January, U.S.-China trade relations have experienced a cycle of collapse, partial recovery, and sharp deterioration across various sectors, leading to unprecedented economic backlash in the U.S. [1] Group 2 - In the solar industry, the U.S. imposed tariffs as high as 250% on Chinese solar panels to protect domestic companies, but this has not resulted in growth for local firms and has instead delayed installation progress by several years [2] - The impact of these tariff policies has contributed to rising inflation in the U.S. and weakened corporate competitiveness, as evidenced by a drop in the consumer confidence index to a six-month low in October [2] - As the survey results are released, a meeting between the U.S. and China is scheduled to take place during the APEC conference in South Korea, suggesting a potential shift towards cooperation amid ongoing inflation and employment market fluctuations in the U.S. [2]

Group 1 - The Hainan Province Xianning Chamber of Commerce has played a significant role in promoting investment and economic exchanges between Hainan and Xianning, achieving notable results in recent years [1] - The new president of the chamber, Kong Xiangfu, aims to unite local entrepreneurs to enhance economic and cultural cooperation between the two regions, especially during the critical phase of Hainan's free trade port operations [1] - The chamber has established a regular communication mechanism to facilitate two-way cooperation, focusing on attracting businesses back to Xianning and promoting Xianning products in Hainan [1] Group 2 - During the conference, Xianning city officials presented the latest industrial development policies, business environment, and talent needs, inviting entrepreneurs to invest and collaborate [2] - The chamber serves as an important platform for communication and cooperation among entrepreneurs, contributing positively to regional economic and social development [2] - The Hainan Federation of Industry and Commerce has actively organized business association leaders to promote Hainan's free trade port policies through various engagement activities [2]

Group 1: Overall Market and Macroeconomic Situation - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and will end balance - sheet reduction in December, but Powell's hawkish remarks on December rate - cut prospects led the market's probability of a December rate cut to drop from 95% to 65% [1][3] - South Korea promised to invest $350 billion in the US to get tariff preferences for the auto and semiconductor industries, and the US - Canada trade negotiation was suspended [1] - The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and significantly lowered its economic growth forecast [1] - China's Q3 GDP growth rate declined as expected, and the GDP deflator showed a recovery trend. Fiscal policy has clearly taken action to support the economy [2] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was positively received by the stock market, and the adjustment of key work deployment emphasized the importance of technology, opening - up, and focusing on people's livelihood to boost domestic demand [2] Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0991 on the previous trading day, up 15 basis points, and the central parity rate was raised by 13 basis points [3] - Optimistic expectations of Sino - US trade negotiations and the central bank's guidance on the exchange rate are key factors for the RMB's strength against the US dollar. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 7.13, and import enterprises are advised to adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 7.09 mark [4] Group 3: Stock Index - The stock index closed higher on the previous trading day, with small - cap stocks performing strongly. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 1.19%. The total trading volume of the two markets increased by 10.817 billion yuan [5] - The release of the full - version of the "15th Five - Year Plan Proposal" boosted market sentiment. The stock index is expected to be affected by the Fed's rate - cut expectations, with short - term volatility increasing but overall remaining relatively strong [5] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - On Wednesday, Treasury bond futures opened higher, but the TL contract closed down. The stock market was strong, but the bond market was not affected. The yield of 1 - 3 - year bonds decreased by 3 - 4 basis points. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy on dips [6] Group 5: Container Shipping (European Routes) - On October 29, the container shipping index (European routes) futures market closed higher across the board. The main contract EC2512 rose 5.08%. The market volume increased significantly, and the position of the main contract increased to 31,906 lots [8] - Bullish factors include geopolitical support, improved macro - situation, and a stronger spot index. Bearish factors include uncertain spot demand, a loose supply - demand pattern, and weak European economic data. The futures are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but beware of technical corrections [9][10][11] Group 6: Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - On Wednesday, precious metal prices continued to fluctuate and adjust. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3941.7 per ounce, down 1.04%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11,338 yuan per kilogram, up 1.91% [13] - The Fed's hawkish rate cut in December led to a significant cooling of rate - cut expectations. In the short term, precious metals are in an adjustment phase. It is recommended to pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities on dips and continue to hold existing long positions cautiously [13][15] Group 7: Copper - Overnight, Comex copper closed at $5.19 per pound, down 1.35%; LME copper closed at $11,090 per ton, up 0.47%; SHFE copper closed at 89,130 yuan per ton, up 1.23%. The 89,200 level may be the high for the year [16][17] - Glencore lowered its 2025 copper production target due to a decline in ore grade at some mines. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 87,000 and the pressure at 89,200 for the December contract [16][17][18] Group 8: Aluminum and Related Products - For aluminum, the Fed's rate cut and Sino - US trade talks have mixed effects. In the short term, Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level. For alumina, it is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to maintain a short - position strategy. For cast aluminum alloy, it has a strong follow - up relationship with Shanghai aluminum, and it is recommended to pay attention to the price difference [18][19][20] Group 9: Zinc - The zinc price maintained a high - level shock on the previous trading day. The smelting end's willingness to cut production in November has increased, and the low inventory provides support for the price. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [21][22] Group 10: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel main contract rose 0.34%, and the stainless - steel main contract rose 0.31%. The nickel ore policy in Indonesia has become stricter, and the downstream demand for new energy is strong. Stainless steel may fluctuate widely due to cost and demand factors [22][23] Group 11: Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract was strongly volatile on the previous trading day, closing at 286,700 yuan per ton. Technically, the 290,000 level is a stable resistance. Fundamentally, supply is weaker than demand, and it is recommended to hold long positions [23][24] Group 12: Carbonate Lithium - On Wednesday, the main contract of carbonate lithium futures closed at 82,900 yuan per ton, up 1.54%. The market demand is good, and the futures price is expected to be supported in stages [25] Group 13: Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,355 yuan per ton. The high - lead price has a limited upside. It is recommended to use an option double - selling strategy to earn option premiums [25][26][27] Group 14: Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar has been oscillating upward recently, supported by rising iron ore and coking coal prices and improved downstream demand. However, the upward momentum is weak due to weak fundamentals and weak iron ore prices. Crude steel production is expected to decline slightly [28] Iron Ore - The iron ore market has a loose supply - demand relationship. Supply is abundant, and inventory is high, while demand is weak. After the impact of macro - events fades, the price is expected to continue to be under pressure [29] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal supply has tightened, and coke enterprises have started the third round of price increases. In the short term, coke prices may be strong, but the potential negative feedback from the steel market will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices [30] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese provide limited support, and the upward space is limited due to high inventory and weak demand [30][31] Group 15: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - WTI crude oil futures rose 0.55% to $60.48 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 0.77% to $64.32 per barrel. The decline in EIA inventory and Sino - US trade optimism led to a small increase in oil prices, but in the long - term, supply surplus may put pressure on prices [32][33] LPG - The LPG market rose slightly due to macro - favorable factors. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, with supply affected by port arrivals and demand showing little change [34][35] PTA - PX - The PX - TA - PR sector was strongly volatile due to the "anti - involution" sentiment. PX supply is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter, and PTA is in a relatively surplus situation. In the short term, it is expected to be strongly volatile, and in the long - term, the industrial structure contradiction needs to be resolved [35][36][37] MEG - Bottle Chips - The fundamentals of ethylene glycol have marginally improved, but the valuation is under pressure due to inventory accumulation expectations. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to sell call options on rallies [39][40] Methanol - The methanol 01 contract is not optimistic from a fundamental perspective. It is recommended to reduce short - put positions and sell call options on the 01 contract [40][41] PP - The PP market is in a situation of oversupply. Although the supply has slightly decreased in the short term, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [43][44] PE - The PE market is also facing supply - demand pressure. Supply is expected to increase, and demand growth is limited. It is mainly affected by cost and macro - factors and is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [46][47] Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to a high - supply and low - demand situation. Styrene has inventory pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider narrowing the processing spread on rallies [47][48] Fuel Oil - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the current high - cracking situation is a strong - expectation and weak - reality pattern, and the upside of cracking is limited. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the fundamentals are weak, but the valuation is low and there is an expectation of repair [48][49][50] Asphalt - The asphalt market showed no more - than - expected performance during the peak season. The short - term price was boosted by cost, but the spot basis continued to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see or try short - positions when the price reaches the resistance level [51][52] Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - The rubber market was boosted by macro - sentiment. The downstream performance is good, but there is still inventory pressure and uncertainty in the long - term supply and demand. In the short term, it is strong, but the upward drive is limited [52][53][54] Urea - The urea futures price rose with the improvement of macro - sentiment, and the spot sales also improved. However, in the long - term, it still faces pressure without export quotas [55] Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - For soda ash, the supply is expected to remain high in the long - term, and the price is limited by high inventory but supported by cost. For glass, the inventory is high, and the spot sales have improved after price cuts. The game in the 01 contract may continue until near delivery [56][57]