1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The textile and apparel exports in the first two months of 2026 showed significant growth. From January to February 2026, China's textile and apparel export volume was $50.45 billion, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. Among them, textile exports were $25.57 billion, a year - on - year increase of 20.5%, and clothing exports were $24.87 billion, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. The "Golden March and Silver April" traditional consumption season in the textile industry has started, and spinning mills' production is resuming. However, after the previous price increase, there is a short - term technical adjustment [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price was 15,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 205 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price was 21,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions were - 201,155 lots, an increase of 13,319 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions were - 819 lots, an increase of 380 lots [2]. - Cotton main contract positions were 653,507 lots, a decrease of 56,651 lots; cotton yarn main contract positions were 13,953 lots, a decrease of 89 lots [2]. - Cotton warehouse receipt quantity was 12,480 lots, a decrease of 2 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity was 301 lots, a decrease of 6 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 16,897 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) was 22,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,287 yuan/ton; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding duty) was 14,155 yuan/ton. The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) was 22,568 yuan/ton, an increase of 72 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) was 23,908 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B) was 5,153 yuan/ton, a decrease of 76 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton was 861,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of cotton was 180,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 170,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons [2]. - The daily import cotton profit was 2,742 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton was 5.7887 million tons, an increase of 4,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn were 21.71 days, a decrease of 3.41 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 33.13 days, a decrease of 0.63 days [2]. - The monthly output of cloth was 3.01 billion meters, an increase of 0.2 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.132 million tons, an increase of 93,000 tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was $134,124,120, an increase of $18,187,260; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was $125,796,030, an increase of $3,038,700 [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options was 18.26%, a decrease of 1.85%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options was 18.31%, a decrease of 1.79% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 15.14%, an increase of 0.19%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 14.09%, an increase of 0.02% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of 24:00 on March 16, 2026, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton processed by national cotton processing enterprises in the 2025/26 season was 33,498,830 bales, totaling 7,561,747 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.10%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 7,175,028 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.25% [2]. - ICE cotton futures climbed on Tuesday, continuing the previous day's gains. ICE May cotton futures contract rose 0.58 cents, or 0.85%, to settle at 68.77 cents per pound [2]. - On the domestic supply side, port inventories increased significantly, and the inventory of Brazilian cotton remained at a high level. As of March 12, the inventory of major imported cotton ports was 571,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.7% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, the RB2605 contract rose and then pulled back. The National Development and Reform Commission will identify around 100 iconic scenario projects with leading and driving roles across the country, covering scenarios such as creating multi - provincial linked clean energy corridors, building full - space unmanned systems, and promoting the construction of elderly care service scenarios in areas with a high degree of population aging [2]. - In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to increase, and the capacity utilization rate rose to 42.82%. Terminal demand increased simultaneously, and the inventory growth rate decreased. Overall, with the international situation being volatile and many uncertainties, international oil prices pulled back from high levels, which hindered the rebound of furnace materials and steel prices. The short - term market may fluctuate [2]. - Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are expanding. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,140.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan; the position volume was 1,514,911 lots, a decrease of 34,623 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 36,963 lots, a decrease of 28,017 lots; the spread between the RB5 - 10 contracts was - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [2]. - The daily warehouse receipt report of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 58,749 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons; the spread between the HC2605 - RB2605 contracts was 170 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,290.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,374 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,420.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the RB main contract was 150.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 30.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 799.00 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 8.00 yuan; the price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) was 1,490.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,190.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,980.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 171.918 million tons, an increase of 690,800 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.8762 million tons, an increase of 160,900 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 2.4051 million tons, an increase of 78,600 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 561,000 tons, a decrease of 69,300 tons [2]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.36%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 82.90%, a decrease of 2.40 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.953 million tons, an increase of 219,900 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 42.82%, an increase of 4.83 percentage points [2]. - The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.3962 million tons, an increase of 16,900 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 6.5455 million tons, an increase of 168,000 tons [2]. - The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 59.38%, an increase of 23.96 percentage points; the monthly output of domestic crude steel was 68.18 million tons, a decrease of 1.69 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 13.75 million tons, an increase of 190,000 tons; the net export volume of steel products was 7.47 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was - 3.80%, a decrease of 5.60 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 17.20%, a decrease of 6.10 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 2.20%, a decrease of 2.20 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.5989 billion square meters, a decrease of 1.24518 billion square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 587.7 million square meters, a decrease of 536.86 million square meters [2]. - The inventory of commercial housing for sale was 402.36 million square meters, an increase of 35.16 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Iran's President issued a statement confirming the death of Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad - Bagher Ghalibaf said on social media that the Strait of Hormuz would not return to the pre - war state [2]. - From March 9th to March 15th, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.4775 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 46.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. During the same period, the total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing in 10 key cities was 2.0892 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 27.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.2% [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rebounded on March 17, with the most actively traded May contract up 26.9 Canadian dollars, or 3.8%, settling at 729.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - Affected by the decline of US soybeans, rapeseed meal has given back some of its previous gains, with large short - term fluctuations, and it is recommended to participate in short - term trading [2] - Recently, the rapeseed oil futures price has generally remained in a high - level shock, with increased short - term fluctuations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures was 9780 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal futures was 2443 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan [2] - The month - to - month spread of rapeseed oil (5 - 9) was 141 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the month - to - month spread of rapeseed meal (5 - 9) was 16 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] - The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 229,484 lots, down 4185 lots; the position of the main contract of rapeseed meal was 600,206 lots, down 20,858 lots [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil was - 18,729 lots, up 1557 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal was - 145,326 lots, down 7417 lots [2] - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 905, down 220; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 586, down 1675 [2] - The closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed futures was 729.4 Canadian dollars/ton, up 26.8 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed futures was 5778 yuan/ton, down 122 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,370 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - The average price of rapeseed oil was 10,351.25 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed was 5388.97 yuan/ton, up 169.65 yuan [2] - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the oil - meal ratio was 3.86, up 0.04 [2] - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 590 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 217 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [2] - The spot price of grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing was 8840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1530 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9860 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 510 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2] - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3330 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 670 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted annual global rapeseed output was 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the annual predicted rapeseed output was 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - The total rapeseed import volume was 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk was 146 yuan/ton, up 191 yuan [2] - The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 17.5 million tons, down 2.5 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 8%, unchanged [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 22 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 27.65 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas was 5.75 million tons, down 2.3 million tons [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region was 27.65 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region was 5.75 million tons, down 2.3 million tons [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi region was 0.5 million tons, up 2.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region was 30.2 million tons, up 1.9 million tons [2] - The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 0.52 million tons, up 0.7 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 1.04 million tons, up 0.5 million tons [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; the monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 573.8 billion yuan, down 3.19 billion yuan [2] - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2] 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 27.48%, down 2.88%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 27.48%, down 2.87% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 28.12%, down 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 20.84%, down 0.01% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 19.9%, down 2.88%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 19.9%, down 2.88% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 19.58%, up 0.76%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 19.83%, down 0.08% [2] 3.8 Industry News - On March 17 (Tuesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, rebounding from the previous day's decline, with the most actively traded May contract up 26.9 Canadian dollars, or 3.8%, at 729.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2] 3.9 Rapeseed Meal View Summary - Affected by the increase in South American soybean supply and the decline in US soybean export expectations, US soybeans fell sharply, dragging down the domestic rapeseed meal price [2] - China's cancellation of the anti - discrimination tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of the Canadian rapeseed tariff will increase the supply pressure in the distant month [2] - The adjustment of anti - discrimination measures for Canadian rapeseed meal and the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed are in line with expectations, with limited overall impact [2] - The planting area of Canadian rapeseed in 2026 is expected to increase by 1% to 21.8 million acres, lower than the average expectation of 22.3 million acres [2] - The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture predicts that the rapeseed output in 2026/27 will be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year [2] 3.10 Rapeseed Oil View Summary - The continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, boosting the demand expectation of vegetable oil for biodiesel [2] - The export of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly in March, while the output increase was limited, and the end - of - month inventory is expected to continue to decline [2] - The Indonesian government may impose additional taxes on palm oil, and the market expects the export of Indonesian palm oil to tighten [2] - The domestic edible oil spot market has a weak trading atmosphere, and high prices suppress demand [2] - The future import volume of Canadian rapeseed is expected to increase significantly, adding supply pressure in the distant month [2]

免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1156.50 | -19.50↓ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1721.50 | -10.50↓ | | | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 586837.00 | +3214.00↑ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 41008.00 | +10.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -74300.00 | -16199.00↓ 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -4388.00 | +498.00↑ | | | JM9-5月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 104.00 | -2.00↓ J9-5月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 81.50 | +4.00↑ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 300.00 | 0.00 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 1090.00 | -250.00↓ | | | 干其毛都蒙5原煤（日，元/吨） | 1100.00 | 0.00 唐 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core View - The market situation of oversupply in the pig industry continues, which exerts pressure on pig prices to run weakly. The futures price of the pig 2605 contract fell 2.29% today, and the market sentiment is low, continuing to decline to find support [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs was 10,475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan; the position of the main contract was 204,678 lots, an increase of 2,280 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 1,052 lots, a decrease of 80 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -62,230 lots, an increase of 2,665 lots [3] Spot Price - The spot price of live pigs in Henan Zhumadian was 10,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9,100 yuan; in Jilin Siping, it was 9,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong Yunfu, it was 10,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main live pig contract was -9,475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8,880 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The national live pig inventory was 429.67 million heads, a decrease of 7.13 million heads; the national breeding sow inventory was 39.61 million heads, a decrease of 0.29 million heads [3] Industry Situation - The year-on-year increase in CPI was 1.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the spot price of corn was 2,455.49 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.14 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 962.85, a decrease of 2.15; the monthly output of feed was 30.086 million tons, an increase of 307,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows was 1,424 yuan/head, a decrease of 6 yuan; the breeding profit of purchased piglets was -118.18 yuan/head, a decrease of 59.29 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs was -283.15 yuan/head, a decrease of 45.17 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork was 60,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas was 13.7 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 44.04 million heads, a decrease of 4.87 million heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 573.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.9 billion yuan [3] Industry News - On March 18, 2026, the daily national live pig出栏 volume of key breeding enterprises was 291,666 heads, a decrease of 0.17% from the previous day. The supply in the near term is sufficient. The demand enters the off - season, and the terminal consumption is rigid. The slaughtering start - up rate may fluctuate slightly at the current level or even decrease slightly, with limited support for prices [3] Key Points of Attention - Pay continuous attention to the dynamics of the second - fattening entry and the impact of capital flow on prices [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - BZ2604 fell 1.31% to close at 8,154 yuan/ton. The market digested the impact of the Middle East geopolitical conflict on crude oil supply, and with the unexpected increase in US API crude oil inventory, international oil prices corrected during the day. In terms of domestic supply and demand, the petroleum benzene operating rate decreased by 2.36% to 74.20% week-on-week, the hydrobenzene operating rate increased by 0.4% to 63.07% week-on-week, and domestic pure benzene production decreased week-on-week. The operating rates of pure benzene downstream varied, with the weighted operating rate decreasing by 1.46% to 76.27% week-on-week. The pure benzene inventory at East China ports decreased by 4.64% to 288,000 tons week-on-week, which was higher than the same period in previous years. Domestic petroleum benzene enterprises are undergoing spring maintenance one after another, and overseas pure benzene production has decreased due to the interruption of Middle East raw material supply. It is expected that the supply of pure benzene will decline significantly in the future. A large-scale styrene plant downstream is under maintenance, and there are both production cut and capacity increase devices among other downstream industries. Overall, the decline in pure benzene demand is expected to be less than that in supply, the domestic supply-demand gap will widen, and the high inventory is expected to be digested smoothly. Currently, the situation in the Middle East remains highly uncertain, and BZ2604 is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to news disturbances [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract was 8,154 yuan/ton, a decrease of 289 yuan; the settlement price was 8,284 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan. The trading volume was 30,023 lots, a decrease of 4,988 lots; the open interest was 13,353 lots, a decrease of 4,468 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market was 8,285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan; in the North China market, it was 7,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; in the South China market, it was 8,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northeast region, it was 7,829 yuan/ton, a decrease of 86 yuan. The mainstream price of hydrobenzene in Jiangsu was 8,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan; in Shanxi, it was 7,405 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB mid - price of pure benzene in South Korea was 1,079 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of pure benzene in China was 1,089.65 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9.68 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 103.45 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 20.5 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 74.2%, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points; the weekly output was 439,300 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene was 302,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. The production cost of pure benzene was 6,537.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 702.3 yuan; the production profit was 875 yuan/ton, an increase of 348 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of styrene was 71.79%, a decrease of 2.32 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 74.87%, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 86.87%, a decrease of 1.64 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 89.04%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 69%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From March 6th to 12th, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 2.36% to 74.20% week-on-week, and the operating rate of hydrobenzene increased by 0.4% to 63.07% week-on-week. From March 7th to 13th, the weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream decreased by 1.46% to 76.27% week-on-week. As of March 16th, the pure benzene inventory at East China ports was 288,000 tons, a decrease of 4.64% week-on-week. As of March 13th, the profit of petroleum benzene was 875 yuan/ton, an increase of 348 yuan/ton week-on-week [2].

何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 货顺畅，部分工厂货源偏紧。短期刚需推进以及国际市场情绪影响，尿素预计维持产销平衡，局部受检修 等影响货源偏紧，整体库存或继续下降。UR2605合约短线预计在1840-1900区间波动。 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 尿素产业日报 2026-03-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1855 | -23 郑州尿素5-9价差(日,元/吨) | -39 | 2 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 227858 | -16877 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -39493 | 6052 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 8 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port decreased slightly recently, with the bonded warehouse continuing to accumulate inventory and the general trade warehouse reducing inventory. It is expected that the general trade warehouse will continue to see a slight reduction in inventory in the short term. - The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises rebounded significantly last week, with the production schedules of tire companies basically returning to normal, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. The export of tire companies in some regions still faces resistance due to the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, and there is a possibility of a slight decline in the short term. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,250 - 17,000, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,000 - 13,500 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 16,400 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 13,105 yuan/ton, down 365 yuan. - **Spreads**: The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 100 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 95 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,295 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. - **Positions**: The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 5,883 lots to 127,172 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 427 lots to 61,137 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Rubber Prices**: The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market decreased by 500 yuan; the price of Thailand's RMB mixed rubber was 15,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysia's RMB mixed rubber was 15,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - **Synthetic Rubber Prices**: The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 was 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 15,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Raw Material Prices**: The market reference price of Thai rubber smoke sheets was 74.3 baht/kg, up 0.2 baht; the price of Thai rubber sheets was 70 baht/kg, up 0.45 baht; the price of Thai rubber glue was 73 baht/kg, up 0.7 baht; the price of Thai cup rubber was 52.95 baht/kg, up 0.85 baht. - **Import Volumes**: The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber was 19.93 million tons, an increase of 3.05 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 39.63 million tons, an increase of 9.41 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - **Operating Rates**: The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 70.22%, up 4.32 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 77.71%, up 3.68 percentage points. - **Inventory Days**: The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 43.91 days, down 1.88 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 43.84 days, up 0.74 days. - **Output**: The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.71 million pieces, down 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.68 million pieces, up 1.29 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 24.76%, up 1.68 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.88%, up 0.73 percentage points. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 31.87%, down 0.2 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 31.86%, down 0.2 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - **Heavy - Truck Sales**: In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an 8% decrease from the same period last year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. - **Inventory in Qingdao Port**: As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in the bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 677,600 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.42%. The bonded area inventory increased by 1.43% to 121,300 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.81% to 556,300 tons. - **Tire Enterprise Capacity Utilization**: As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 78.73%, a month - on - month increase of 4.20 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.80%, a month - on - month increase of 6.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.81 percentage points [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - L2605 saw a rise followed by a decline, closing at 8431 yuan/ton. The market digested the impact of the Middle East geopolitical conflict on crude oil supply, and with the expected increase in profit and a correction in international oil prices, the plastics market was affected. The supply of PE decreased with some device shutdowns for maintenance, while downstream demand recovered due to the "Golden March" season. LLDPE supply and demand were acceptable, and in the short term, L2605 was expected to fluctuate with international oil prices, with technical attention on the support around 8120 and the resistance around 8895 [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for polyethylene was 8431 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 7928 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 8431 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 8175 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2] - The trading volume was 789359 lots, down 60458 lots; the open interest was 343958 lots, up 10229 lots [2] - The 1 - 5 spread was - 503, down 21; the 5 - 9 spread was 256, down 38; the 9 - 1 spread was 247, up 59 [2] - The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions for polyethylene was 478921 lots, up 12379 lots; the sell order volume was 479568 lots, up 6618 lots; the net buy order volume was - 647 lots, up 5761 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 8366.96 yuan/ton, down 3.04 yuan; in East China, it was 8568.6 yuan/ton, down 14.88 yuan [2] - The basis was - 64.04, up 61.96 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 124.55 US dollars/barrel, down 3.42 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 1032 US dollars/ton, down 20.5 US dollars [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia was 1251 US dollars/ton, up 50 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 82.39%, down 4.52 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 43.37%, up 3.07 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 18%, up 7.83 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 26.81%, up 7.95 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 37.85%, up 0.79 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 30.65%, up 0.78 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for polyethylene was 50.11%, down 12.33 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 50.11%, down 12.27 percentage points [2] Industry News - From March 6th to 12th, China's polyethylene production was 68.32 tons, down 5.20% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 82.39%, down 4.52 percentage points [2] - From March 6th to 12th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 5.2% [2] - As of March 11th, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 57.54 tons, up 7.31% from the previous week; as of March 13th, the social inventory of PE was 61.93 tons, down 6.58% from the previous period [2] - From March 6th to 12th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 14.37% to 9306 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 46 yuan/ton to - 1329 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 1.14% to 6602 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 1211 yuan/ton to 1446 yuan/ton [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views - For the corn market, the international oil price remains high due to the ongoing US - Iran conflict, which boosts the international corn market price and benefits the domestic market. In the domestic market, the remaining grain in the Northeast production area is less than 30%. As the corn price rises, the willingness of growers to sell increases, and the market supply increases. Feed enterprises mainly make rigid replenishment, while deep - processing enterprises' resuming operation supports the purchase price. The rumored release of overdue rice and the adjustment of the lowest - price wheat auction policy may suppress corn demand. The corn futures price fluctuates at a high level, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For the corn starch market, as the production of corn starch enterprises gradually recovers, the industry's operating rate increases, and the supply - side pressure rises. However, the increase in the operating rate is slow, downstream demand improves, and the industry inventory slightly decreases. The starch market's upward momentum weakens, and it may maintain a volatile trend in the short term [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2382 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2721 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 19 yuan/ton, and corn starch monthly spread (5 - 7) is 1 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn futures holding volume (active contract) is 1358592 hands, down 26004 hands; corn starch futures holding volume (active contract) is 248048 hands, up 5182 hands [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holdings for corn are - 214100 hands, up 24709 hands; for corn starch, they are - 21117 hands, up 4579 hands [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn are 78333 hands, and for corn starch are 6255 hands, with no change [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 330 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - market Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 454.5 cents/bushel, down 0.25 cents/bushel; CBOT corn total holding volume (weekly) is 1723308 contracts, up 105847 contracts [2]. - CBOT corn non - commercial net long positions (weekly) are 257781 contracts, up 167722 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2455.49 yuan/ton, up 3.14 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2830 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The f.o.b. price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Weifang is 3040 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 2138.16 yuan/ton, up 53.09 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 65 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton [2]. - The basis of the corn main contract is 73.49 yuan/ton, up 7.14 yuan/ton; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 100 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between Shandong starch and corn (weekly) is 540 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price difference between cassava starch and corn starch (weekly) is 737 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 19 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 432.34 million tons, up 6.81 million tons; in Brazil is 131 million tons, unchanged; in Argentina is 53 million tons, unchanged; in China is 301.24 million tons, up 6.24 million tons; in Ukraine is 29 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 36.93 million hectares, up 0.49 million hectares; in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, unchanged; in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, unchanged; in China is 44.96 million hectares, up 0.66 million hectares [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory at southern ports (weekly) is 69.6 tons, down 19.6 tons; at northern ports is 219 tons, up 19 tons [2]. - Deep - processing corn inventory (weekly) is 337.7 tons, down 6 tons; starch enterprise weekly inventory (weekly) is 120.3 tons, down 0.6 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 80 tons, up 24 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 16.74 tons, down 0.2 tons [2]. - The monthly output of feed is 3008.6 tons, up 30.7 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The sample feed corn inventory days (weekly) is 30.06 days, down 0.19 days [2]. - The deep - processing corn consumption (weekly) is 126.86 tons, up 4.91 tons [2]. - The alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 55.61%, up 1.53 percentage points; the starch enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 58.8%, up 3.07 percentage points [2]. - The corn starch processing profit in Shandong is - 2 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton; in Hebei is 141 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton; in Jilin is 5 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.65%, down 0.17 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.28%, up 0.01 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 14.28%, down 1.35 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 14.28%, down 1.35 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The Trump administration has taken emergency action to find alternative fertilizer sources for US farmers before the spring plowing due to the Iran war cutting off key supply channels [2]. - From March 1 to 13, Brazil's corn export volume was 48.4 tons, compared with 87.1 tons in the whole of March 2025 [2]. - The ongoing US - Iran conflict affects the international oil price, which boosts the international corn market price and has a positive impact on the domestic market [2]. Key Points to Watch - Pay attention to the weekly corn consumption and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]