Core Insights - The article discusses the cyclical nature of commodity price movements in relation to the global macroeconomic cycle, highlighting the distinct phases of "recovery, prosperity, stagflation, and recession" and their corresponding impacts on different commodity sectors [1] Group 1: Economic Phases and Commodity Performance - During the recovery phase, black and non-ferrous metals typically lead price increases driven by improved demand, while agricultural products like grains remain stable [1] - In the prosperity phase, energy and industrial metals lead the price surge, with agricultural products rising due to inflation transmission and increased planting costs [1] - The stagflation phase sees a divergence in commodity performance, with inflation-resistant assets like gold and oil outperforming, while industrial demand weakens [1] - In the recession phase, overall commodity prices decline, with industrial products falling the most, while safe-haven assets like gold and essential agricultural products experience smaller declines [1] Group 2: Sensitivity to Economic Signals - Commodities sensitive to interest rates, such as precious metals and industrial metals like copper, face increased holding costs during rising interest rates, leading to quicker adjustments [2] - Agricultural products and energy, with more rigid demand, are less affected by short-term interest rate fluctuations compared to supply and demand fundamentals [2] Group 3: Internal Mechanisms of Industrial Products - The price dynamics of black metals like steel and coal are closely tied to infrastructure investment and real estate cycles, with a clear transmission path from policy stimulus to steel demand and coal prices [2] - Non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum are driven by global manufacturing PMI and renewable energy demand, with price movements linked to economic recovery expectations and inventory depletion [2] - Chemical products are strongly correlated with oil prices, with price transmission influenced by oil costs and adjustments in production rates [2] Group 4: Global Supply Chain and Commodity Rotation - The global division of labor has significantly reshaped the paths of commodity rotation, with China as a key demand driver for industrial products, influencing the rotation of black metals and certain chemicals [4] - The development of the renewable energy sector has altered the demand structure for non-ferrous metals like lithium and copper [4] - Supply constraints from resource-producing countries directly impact commodity prices, with geopolitical risks and trade policies exacerbating regional supply-demand mismatches [4]

Core Insights - The current commodity cycle is similar to the 1970s, characterized by a restructuring of the global monetary system and ongoing supply chain disruptions, with precious metals playing a crucial role [1] - The current inflation exhibits structural characteristics, differing from the persistent high inflation of the 1970s, although both periods experience high volatility in inflation rates [1] - The current commodity rotation is in a long-cycle mid-to-late transition phase, marked by structural, phased, and policy-driven characteristics [1] Group 1: Commodity Cycle Characteristics - The current commodity cycle can be compared to the 1970s' "stagflation + geopolitical conflict," but with added variables such as energy transition and weakening dollar credit [2] - Both cycles are in the downturn phase of the Kondratiev wave, with commodity prices influenced by "supply shocks + monetary easing," leading to a wave-like price movement [2] - New demand drivers like AI infrastructure and green transition have replaced traditional real estate infrastructure in the current cycle [2] Group 2: Market Differentiation - The most notable feature of the current commodity rotation is increasing differentiation, stemming from differences in sector logic and variety logic [3] - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals are showing strong performance, while oil prices are under pressure from trade wars and inflation uncertainties, indicating potential for rotation and upward movement [3] - The traditional rotation chain of gold → copper → oil → agricultural products has been disrupted, with a new chain emerging: gold → new energy metals (copper/silver/lithium) → power infrastructure (aluminum/zinc) → strategic minor metals (tungsten/tin/cobalt) [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The chemical sector is expected to perform well by 2026 due to domestic "anti-involution" policies, capacity exits from Europe, Japan, and South Korea, and the transmission of crude oil costs [4] - Key signals to watch in the short term include the ongoing impact of geopolitical tensions on energy prices and the rotation opportunities in black metals, chemicals, agricultural products, and soft commodities following the implementation of domestic demand expansion policies [4] - Key commodities for the next rotation phase include zinc, wheat, iron ore, and platinum, which are recommended for focused attention [5]

锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 110 15 理论价差 118 265 铅 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 20 140 理论价差 94 204 跨品种套利跟踪 2026/02/11 | 铜/锌 | | 铜/铝 | 铜/铅 | 铝/锌 | 铝/铅 | 铅/锌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪（三连） | 4.16 | 4.31 | 6.10 | 0.96 | 1.41 | 0.68 | | 伦（三连） 3.86 4.24 6.64 0.91 1.57 0.58 | | | | | | | | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 | | | | | | | | 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 | | | | | | | | 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market's Spring Festival rally may continue, with attention on the performance of weighted indices and potential style shifts. The risk appetite has rebounded, but trading volume is moderate. The odds of weighted indices' supplementary gains before the Spring Festival may be better than those of small and medium-cap indices [9]. - The sentiment in the bond market has improved, and the short-term rebound trend may continue, but the odds have significantly decreased. It is advisable to wait for new odds from emotional trading [10]. - In the black market, steel and iron ore are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. For steel, the short-sold wide straddle position can be held; for iron ore, some of the medium-term short positions at high levels can be closed, and a light short position can be maintained [11]. - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production at coal mines and the recovery of downstream demand after the Spring Festival [12]. - For iron alloys, manganese ore may still see a slight reduction in inventory this week, and the support for manganese ore remains relatively strong in the short term. Manganese silicon is expected to remain in a volatile range, and it is recommended to wait and see. For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to go long on a medium-term basis, and it is advisable to go long on the spread between the 05 contracts of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon when the spread is low [13]. - For soda ash and glass, it is recommended to wait and see for now. For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new production capacity reaching full production. For glass, pay attention to the actual changes in production lines [14][15]. - In the non-ferrous and new materials sector, copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the fundamentals still support the price. For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to look for opportunities to buy on dips after the price correction. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and polysilicon is expected to have a wide range of fluctuations, and cautious operation is recommended [17][18][19]. - In the agricultural products market, cotton is expected to be in a high-level consolidation state, and it is recommended to focus on short-term trading. Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate and rebound, and it is recommended to conduct short-term trading in the low-level range before the Spring Festival. For eggs, it is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see before the Spring Festival. Apples' high-quality supplies may continue to be strong, and the futures price may be strong. Corn prices are expected to be in a high-level consolidation state before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to opportunities after the festival. Red dates are expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the market performance during the consumption peak season. For live pigs, the spot price is lower than expected, and the near-month contracts may decline further [21][24][26][28][29][30][32]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices are expected to have limited rebound space and will mainly fluctuate. Fuel oil prices will follow the fluctuations of crude oil prices. Polyolefins are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to sell out-of-the-money put options or accumulate purchases at low levels. Synthetic rubber is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival and look for opportunities to go long after the festival. Methanol's fundamentals have slightly improved, but attention should be paid to the Middle East situation. Caustic soda is recommended to be considered from a long perspective. Asphalt prices will follow the fluctuations of crude oil prices. PVC is recommended to be cautious, as there is a risk of correction. The polyester industry chain is expected to follow the fluctuations of crude oil prices, and it is recommended to consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on PTA and short on EG. Liquefied petroleum gas prices will follow the fluctuations of crude oil prices, and it is recommended to be cautious. Pulp is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to position risk control. Logs are expected to have a pattern of strong supply and weak demand after the festival, and attention should be paid to price fluctuations. Urea futures are recommended to be treated with a volatile mindset [34][35][36][37][39][40][41][42][43][46][47][48][49][51]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and conduct regular treasury bond trading operations [6]. - Ray Dalio warns that the US is on the verge of the "fifth stage" of the imperial cycle, and gold should account for 5%-15% of the investment portfolio [6]. - The article in Qiushi Journal emphasizes the importance of cultivating and developing future industries [6]. - Alphabet's issuance of 100-year bonds received more than 7 times oversubscription, and its global debt issuance exceeded $30 billion [7]. - BYD has sued the US government over tariff issues [7]. - US President Trump may send another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East if the negotiation with Iran fails [7]. - Fed officials believe that the Fed's policy stance is appropriate, and there may be no need for further interest rate cuts if inflation falls and the labor market remains stable [8]. - US retail sales in December 2025 had zero growth month-on-month, weaker than expected [8]. Stock Index Futures - The Spring Festival rally in the A-share market may continue, with attention on the performance of weighted indices and potential style shifts. The risk appetite has rebounded, but trading volume is moderate. The odds of weighted indices' supplementary gains before the Spring Festival may be better than those of small and medium-cap indices [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - The sentiment in the bond market has improved, and the short-term rebound trend may continue, but the odds have significantly decreased. It is advisable to wait for new odds from emotional trading [10]. Black Market - Steel and iron ore are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. For steel, the short-sold wide straddle position can be held; for iron ore, some of the medium-term short positions at high levels can be closed, and a light short position can be maintained [11]. - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production at coal mines and the recovery of downstream demand after the Spring Festival [12]. - For iron alloys, manganese ore may still see a slight reduction in inventory this week, and the support for manganese ore remains relatively strong in the short term. Manganese silicon is expected to remain in a volatile range, and it is recommended to wait and see. For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to go long on a medium-term basis, and it is advisable to go long on the spread between the 05 contracts of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon when the spread is low [13]. Soda Ash and Glass - It is recommended to wait and see for now. For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new production capacity reaching full production. For glass, pay attention to the actual changes in production lines [14][15]. Non-ferrous and New Materials - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the fundamentals still support the price [17]. - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to look for opportunities to buy on dips after the price correction [18]. - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and polysilicon is expected to have a wide range of fluctuations, and cautious operation is recommended [19]. Agricultural Products - Cotton is expected to be in a high-level consolidation state, and it is recommended to focus on short-term trading [21]. - Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate and rebound, and it is recommended to conduct short-term trading in the low-level range before the Spring Festival [24]. - For eggs, it is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see before the Spring Festival [26]. - Apples' high-quality supplies may continue to be strong, and the futures price may be strong [28]. - Corn prices are expected to be in a high-level consolidation state before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to opportunities after the festival [29]. - Red dates are expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the market performance during the consumption peak season [30]. - For live pigs, the spot price is lower than expected, and the near-month contracts may decline further [32]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude oil prices are expected to have limited rebound space and will mainly fluctuate [34]. - Fuel oil prices will follow the fluctuations of crude oil prices [35]. - Polyolefins are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious [36]. - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to sell out-of-the-money put options or accumulate purchases at low levels [37]. - Synthetic rubber is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival and look for opportunities to go long after the festival [39]. - Methanol's fundamentals have slightly improved, but attention should be paid to the Middle East situation [40]. - Caustic soda is recommended to be considered from a long perspective [41]. - Asphalt prices will follow the fluctuations of crude oil prices [42]. - PVC is recommended to be cautious, as there is a risk of correction [43]. - The polyester industry chain is expected to follow the fluctuations of crude oil prices, and it is recommended to consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on PTA and short on EG [46]. - Liquefied petroleum gas prices will follow the fluctuations of crude oil prices, and it is recommended to be cautious [47]. - Pulp is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to position risk control [48]. - Logs are expected to have a pattern of strong supply and weak demand after the festival, and attention should be paid to price fluctuations [49]. - Urea futures are recommended to be treated with a volatile mindset [51].

事关期货公司交易结算系统压力测试，中期协公开征求意见 2月10日，中期协就《期货公司交易结算系统压力测试管理细则（试行）（征求意见稿）》（下称《管 理细则》）公开征求意见，旨在通过细化自律管理要求，进一步提升期货公司交易结算系统压力测试工 作的有效性，保障系统安全平稳运行。 对此，业内人士认为，未来《管理细则》的落地实施，将填补期货行业交易结算系统压力测试自律管理 的空白，对规范期货公司经营行为、提升行业科技风控能力具有重要意义。 据期货日报记者了解，《管理细则》共12条，重点围绕期货公司交易结算系统压力测试的范围、周期、 场景、指标、报告等核心环节作出全面规范，构建起全流程、多层次的压力测试管理体系。 在适用范围与定义方面，《管理细则》明确，期货公司主席位交易系统（含双活或多活架构）和结算系 统的压力测试适用《管理细则》，同时清晰界定了两类系统的具体内涵。在制度机制建设上，《管理细 则》提出期货公司应当建立压力测试管理制度，明确职责分工、工作流程，分配必要的专项资源，确保 测试工具、数据及人力配置满足常态化开展压力测试的需要。 对测试周期与触发情形的规范是《管理细则》的重点内容之一。《管理细则》要求，期货公 ...

金融研究 2026年2月11日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：2 月 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.13%，报收 点；深成 10 4128.37 | | --- | --- | | | 指上涨 0.02%，报收 14210.63 点；创业板指下跌 0.37%，报收 3320.54 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.91%， | | | 报收 1471.5 点。市场成交 21,247 亿元，较前日减少 1,454 亿元。行业板块方面，传媒(+4.27%)， | | | 综合(+2.15%)，家用电器(+1.11%)涨幅居前；房地产(-1.4%)，食品饮料(-1.31%)，商贸零售(-0.87%) | | | 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IH>IF>IC，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,192/159/3,122。沪深两市，机构、 | | | 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-115、-207、28、294 亿元，分别变动-331、-108、+194、 | | 股指期货 | +245 亿元。 | | | 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 21.3、15 ...

【生猪周报】出栏增加明显 价格继续承压 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 目录 第一章 综合分析&交易策略 2 | | | 第二章 数据图表&逻辑分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 1.综合分析&交易策略 ◼ 综合分析 本周生猪价格整体呈现下行态势，主要因养殖端出栏压力继续增加。前期市场出栏完成情况比较一般，随着后续出栏期开 始缩短，出栏压力以及出栏节奏明显增加。规模企业方面，近期出栏节奏明显加快，根据三方数据显示，月内生猪出栏完 成情况整体良好。并且根据三方数据显示，预计2月期间生猪日度出栏量环比整体呈现明显增加态势，规模企业后续出栏 压力明显增加。普通养殖户方面，近期出栏积极性同样有所增加，前期出栏节奏比较一般，近期开始有所加快。二次育肥 方面近期整体维持稳定，入场数量相对有限，并且市场大体重猪源数量 ...

日期 2026 年 2 月 11 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 行业 锌期货日报 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2602 | 24550 | 24400 | 24550 | 24295 | -230 | -0.93 | 5425 | -150 | | 沪锌 | 2603 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures on February 11, 2026, mainly including basis, inter - period and inter - variety spreads [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The basis data of thermal coal on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026 are presented, such as the basis on February 10 being - 102.4 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data of fuel oil, crude oil, asphalt and INE crude oil on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026 are provided, along with their price ratios [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026 [9]. - Inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [10]. - Inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026 [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026, such as the basis of rebar on February 10 being 158.0 yuan/ton [20]. - Inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, including 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads [19]. - Inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026 [19]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026, such as the basis of copper on February 10 being 10 yuan/ton [28]. - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on February 10, 2026 [33]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026, such as the basis of soybeans No.1 on February 10 being - 339 yuan/ton [38]. - Inter - period spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [38]. - Inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch on February 10, 2026 [38]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 on different dates from February 4 to February 10, 2026, such as the basis of CSI 300 on February 10 being 25.91 [50]. - Inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter spreads [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 10, equity index futures rose, CGB futures were stable, and commodity futures were mixed, with the energy sector leading the increase [2][10][12] - The turnover of China's futures market in January 2026 reached RMB 100.26 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 105.14%, and the trading volume was 912.49 million contracts, a year - on - year increase of 65.09%. By the end of January, the total open interest increased by 14.65% month - on - month [3][37] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On Feb 10, in equity index futures, IH rose 0.4% and IC rose 0.1%; in CGB futures, T rose 0.01% and TL rose 0.01% [10] - In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Tin (up 3.3% with open interest decreasing 4.2% month - on - month), Sodium Hydroxide (up 3.3% with open interest decreasing 13.9% month - on - month), and No.1 Soybean (up 2.4% with open interest increasing 27.5% month - on - month). The top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (down 4.6% with open interest increasing 8.9% month - on - month), Coke (down 1.7% with open interest increasing 4.3% month - on - month), and Coking Coal (down 1.7% with open interest increasing 6.4% month - on - month) [11][12][13] 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Crude Oil**: On February 10, the front - month contract rose 2.2% to 476.1 yuan/barrel. The fundamentals are in supply surplus, but geopolitical factors frequently disrupt supply expectations. The short - term trend will be range - bound volatility. The current fundamentals are not optimistic, with high inventories and pressured refining margins. Geopolitical factors, such as the US - Iran relationship and India's Russian crude imports, affect supply expectations and support oil prices [17][18][19] - **Fuel Oil**: On February 10, the front - month contract rose 2.2% to 2,845 yuan/ton. The futures prices are at high levels. The expectation of rising oil production in Venezuela will weigh on HSFO in the long term, and short - term focus is on Middle East geopolitical developments. Key logics include the US - Iran negotiation situation, potential heavy oil supply increase from Venezuela, and the long - term replacement of fuel oil for power generation in the Middle East [25][26][27] 3.1.3 Daily Drop - **Ethenylbenzene**: On Feb 10, the front - month contract dropped 1.0% to 7,473 yuan/ton. The upward momentum has weakened recently due to three factors: crude oil prices near the upper end of the trading range, marginal loosening of supply and demand, and expected improvement in the overseas supply - demand balance. Although the seasonal inventory build - up in February is revised lower, the positive impact of exports on futures prices is gradually weakening [30][31][32] 3.2 China News - Industry News - **Stock Exchanges' Measures**: The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges announced a package of measures to optimize refinancing, streamlining the review process for high - quality listed companies and revising rules for "asset - light, high R&D investment" listed companies [37] - **Futures Market Turnover**: In January 2026, China's futures market recorded 912.49 million contracts traded and a turnover of RMB 100.26 trillion, up 65.09% and 105.14% year on year respectively, and the total open interest increased by 14.65% month on month by the end of January [37]