Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Corn: The price is expected to explore the planting cost range, and there are opportunities for low - long positions. Maintain an interval trading idea in the medium - and long - term [4][5][6]. - Pig: The downward space of pig prices is limited, and short positions should enter the profit - taking range. Near - month contracts operate based on supply - demand logic, while far - month contracts focus on the expected difference of sow de - capacity [10][11][12]. - Egg: The spot price has fallen as expected, and the short - selling idea remains unchanged. Before large - scale concentrated chicken culling, maintain the short - selling strategy [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn - **Important Information** - On the 26th, the north - south port prices were stable in the north and strong in the south, and the purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises continued to decline in the northeast and rose in the north [4]. - As of the 26th, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the wheat - corn price difference was positive and continued to expand [4]. - On the 26th, the corn auction sales and procurement transactions of CGC were held. The planned sales volume was 371 tons and all were sold, while the planned procurement volume was 11,800 tons with a transaction rate of 30% [5]. - As of the 39th week of 2025, the grain inventory in Guangzhou Port increased month - on - month and year - on - year, with a significant increase in corn inventory [5]. - **Market Logic** - Short - term: The opening price of new grain in the northeast has dropped from a high level. The lower support of the futures price is the port price range of the new season's corn planting cost, and the upper pressure is the wheat - corn price difference [5]. - Medium - term: Conduct band trading around the new season's corn drive, and maintain a wide - range trading idea [5]. - Long - term: Maintain the pricing logic of import substitution + planting cost, and focus on policy orientation [5]. - **Trading Strategy** - Maintain the interval trading idea in the medium - and long - term. Pay attention to the low - long opportunities of the band. The support levels of the 2511 and 2601 contracts are 2100 - 2130 and 2100 - 2120 respectively, and long positions can be held [6]. Pig - **Important Information** - On the 27th, the national average price of live pigs decreased slightly, and it is expected to be stable with a slight increase on the 28th [10]. - In July 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.42 million, and the number of sows culled in large - scale pig farms increased month - on - month [10]. - The price difference between fat and standard pigs narrowed, the average weekly slaughter weight decreased, and the number of futures warehouse receipts decreased [14]. - The central reserve frozen pork will be rotated out on the 28th [14]. - **Market Logic** - Short - term: The temporary supply - demand imbalance suppresses the pig price [11]. - Medium - term: The expected increase in pig supply in the second half of the year restricts the rise of pig prices [11]. - Long - term: The number of fertile sows is still higher than the normal level, and the pig production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [11]. - **Trading Strategy** - Near - month contracts operate based on supply - demand logic, and short positions should enter the profit - taking range and be gradually closed. Far - month contracts focus on the expected difference of sow de - capacity [12]. - The support levels of the 2511, 2601, 2603, 2605, and 2607 contracts are 12300 - 12500, 12800 - 13000, 12500, 12900 - 13000, and 13500 - 13600 respectively [12]. Egg - **Important Information** - On the 26th, the egg prices were weakly stable, and the downstream sales slowed down with an increase in inventory [17]. - The price of culled hens decreased, and the weekly culling age increased [17]. - In August, the number of laying hens in stock increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the theoretical estimated value in September decreased month - on - month [17]. - **Market Logic** - Medium - and short - term: As the festival approaches, the stocking intensity weakens, the downstream sales slow down, and the inventory rises, putting pressure on egg prices [17]. - Long - term: Focus on the scale of hen culling. The supply pressure may be realized again in the fourth quarter [17]. - **Trading Strategy** - Before large - scale concentrated chicken culling, maintain the short - selling idea, and hold previous short positions. The pressure levels of the 2511, 2512, 2601, and 2602 contracts are 3090 - 3100, 3200, 3370 - 3380, and 3120 - 3140 respectively. Breeding enterprises can also pay attention to the selling - hedging opportunities of the 2607 and 2608 contracts to lock in breeding profits [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures closed mostly lower on September 26, with soybean futures slightly increasing while corn and wheat futures declined [1] Group 2 - Soybean futures rose by 0.17% to close at 1014.00 cents per bushel [1] - Corn futures fell by 1.00% to close at 421.50 cents per bushel [1] - Wheat futures decreased by 1.52% to close at 519.00 cents per bushel [1]

Core Insights - On September 26, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) saw a broad increase in agricultural futures, indicating a positive market trend for these commodities [1] Group 1: Commodity Performance - Raw sugar futures rose by 0.43%, closing at 16.35 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures increased by 0.08%, ending at 66.33 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures saw a gain of 0.38%, closing at $6,951.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures experienced the largest increase, rising by 2.02% to close at 378.85 cents per pound [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: ★★★ for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil; ★★☆ for soybean and soybean meal; ★☆☆ for corn and live pigs; ☆☆☆ for eggs [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: None Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs, and provides investment suggestions based on the analysis [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The domestic soybean futures price continued to rebound with decreasing positions, outperforming imported soybeans, and the price difference widened. New domestic soybeans are about to be listed, with weak quotes. Argentina's agricultural policy fluctuated greatly this week, and China accelerated the purchase of Argentine soybeans. The domestic soybean supply may tighten in Q1 next year, but the supply gap risk will ease. Focus on the purchase volume and price of domestic soybeans and the performance of imported soybeans in the short term [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures continued to decline by 0.81% today. After Argentina's export policy was introduced on Monday, the futures price dropped significantly. As of Wednesday, the sales volume of related products reached the $7 billion limit, and Argentina cancelled the soybean tax exemption policy. During this period, China imported more than 2.2 million tons of Argentine soybeans. The soybean meal market is greatly affected by foreign policies, so continue to wait and see. In the long term, maintain a cautious bullish view on Dalian soybean meal [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Argentina's agricultural policy fluctuated greatly this week, and China accelerated the purchase of Argentine soybeans. The domestic soybean supply may tighten in Q1 next year, but the supply gap risk will ease. The EU decided to postpone the implementation of the anti - deforestation regulations for one year, and the medium - to - long - term demand expectation for palm oil improved. Palm oil is in the production reduction cycle in Q4. The medium - term soybean and palm oil prices are expected to move within a range, and a protective call strategy can be considered to hedge against unexpected risks [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed market maintained the pattern of strong oil and weak meal. The demand for rapeseed meal was mediocre, affected by the seasonal decline in aquaculture feed demand and the low unit protein price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. The oil - to - meal ratio of rapeseed products is expected to continue to rebound, and rapeseed oil will maintain a slow decline. The domestic rapeseed inventory has dropped to a very low level, and coastal oil mills may shut down on a large scale after the National Day. The rapeseed futures will fluctuate in the short term [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures opened low and closed high, rising 0.55% today. The market is optimistic about the new - season corn yield. As the listing volume of new corn in Northeast China increases, the opening price has been falling. Around the National Day, the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures increased positions by nearly 10,000 lots, and all contracts continued to decline to new lows. The spot price continued to weaken, reaching a new low this year, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening and slaughter was high. The futures price is still at a premium to the spot price. Fundamentally, the supply pressure is high in the second half of the year. Pay attention to when secondary fattening will enter the market again and the government's willingness to support the pig price. In the long term, if the reduction of fertile sows starts in September, it is expected to improve the pig price expectation in the second half of next year. Currently, the live pig futures price is bearish [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is low, and the futures price is weak. The funds continued to reduce positions by nearly 50,000 lots. The spot price rebound since the peak season in September reached a phased high last Wednesday. After the National Day, the egg demand will return to a weak state. The industry's high - inventory problem requires deep capacity reduction. Consider taking long positions in the far - month contracts for next year's H1 and pay attention to the exit of short - position funds in the near - month contracts [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The price of soybean oil futures rose during the day due to the exhaustion of Argentina's export tax - free quota and the news of potential US support for Argentina's currency swap. With sufficient domestic supply and weak market confidence in the "strong expectation," the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to temporarily observe the Y2601 contract, with support at 7950 - 8000 yuan/ton and resistance at 8330 - 8350 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports may lead to a significant reduction in Canadian rapeseed purchases. Although imports from Russia, Dubai, and Australia can partially make up for the supply, the trade policy of Canadian rapeseed remains uncertain. If imports are significantly reduced, domestic rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking process. It is recommended to go long with a light position, with support at 9655 - 9698 and resistance at 10300 - 10333 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4.26 - 7.89% month - on - month, and from 1 - 25, exports increased by 11.3 - 12.9% month - on - month. There is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure in the producing areas. Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel to B45 before moving to B50. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, with support at 8900 - 8910 and resistance at 9570 - 9590 [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: The exhaustion of Argentina's export tax - free quota and the uncertainty of supply policies have led to price fluctuations. The domestic supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. It is recommended that aggressive strategies consider going long with a light position, while conservative strategies consider temporary observation [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: In the short term, the CBOT corn futures price is expected to remain in a low - level range. The domestic market is mainly a game between low channel inventory and the new season's listing rhythm. It is recommended to consider selling wide - straddle option combinations or out - of - the - money call options [7]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price rebounded with Bean No. 2, but its fundamentals changed little. The new domestic soybeans are gradually being listed, and the supply is increasing, which restricts the price increase [8]. - **Peanuts**: The new season's peanuts are expected to have an increased yield and lower production costs. As the listing volume gradually increases, there is supply pressure on the spot and futures prices. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - **Hogs**: The futures price of hogs fluctuated and bottomed out. The current market is affected by factors such as feed prices and production capacity reduction expectations. It is recommended that cautious investors hold long - short spreads, while aggressive investors can consider going long on the 2601 contract after the production capacity reduction is confirmed [10]. - **Eggs**: The futures price of eggs rebounded with reduced positions. After a continuous decline, the spot price rebounded slightly in September. It is recommended that cautious investors avoid short - selling, while aggressive investors can consider going long on the 2511 contract at a low price [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Market Analysis** - **Oilseeds**: Products such as Bean No. 1, Bean No. 2, and peanuts are expected to have a volatile adjustment. It is recommended to temporarily observe [13]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil is expected to decline with fluctuations, while rapeseed oil is expected to be slightly stronger, and palm oil is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to observe soybean oil and palm oil, and go long on rapeseed oil with a light position [13]. - **Proteins**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to observe [13]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn and corn starch are expected to face pressure, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [13]. - **Livestock**: Hogs are expected to find the bottom with fluctuations, and eggs are expected to be volatile. It is recommended to observe hogs and go long on eggs at a low price [13]. - **Commodity Arbitrage** - For most varieties, it is recommended to observe, while for hogs 1 - 3 and eggs 10 - 1, it is recommended to conduct long - short spreads at a low price [15]. - **Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies** - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various products, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [16]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table - **Oilseeds and Oils** - **Daily Data**: It includes the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates [17]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [19]. - **Feed** - **Daily Data**: It provides the import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. - **Livestock** - **Daily Data**: It provides the daily data of hogs and eggs, including prices, price changes, and cost - profit data [21][22]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the weekly data of hogs and eggs, including prices, production costs, profits, and slaughter data [23][25]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock (Hogs and Eggs)**: It includes charts of futures and spot prices of hogs and eggs, as well as related price charts such as piglets and white - striped pork [26]. - **Oilseeds and Oils** - **Palm Oil**: It includes charts of production, exports, inventory, and other aspects of Malaysian palm oil, as well as domestic palm oil inventory and trading volume [36]. - **Soybean Oil**: It includes charts of US soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean oil factory operating rate, and inventory [43]. - **Peanuts**: It includes charts of peanut arrival, shipment, processing profit, and inventory [52]. - **Feed** - **Corn**: It includes charts of corn futures and spot prices, inventory, import volume, and processing profit [58]. - **Corn Starch**: It includes charts of corn starch futures and spot prices, operating rate, and inventory [65]. - **Rapeseed**: It includes charts of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, inventory, and processing profit [69]. - **Soybean Meal**: It includes charts of US soybean growth indicators, soybean and soybean meal inventory, and basis [75]. Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It includes charts of historical volatility of products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as option trading volume and open interest of corn [93]. Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It provides charts of warehouse receipts of products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [96].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed oil, suggest a bullish approach and monitor China - Canada trade relations. The futures price closed higher this week. Although Canada's rapeseed harvest is expected to be good and domestic vegetable oil supply is relatively loose, rapeseed oil production pressure is low due to low oil mill operating rates and limited near - month rapeseed purchases. The extension of anti - dumping investigations on Canadian rapeseed may keep the supply tight in the fourth quarter. Overall, rapeseed oil is still supported before substantial progress in China - Canada trade negotiations [8][9] - For rapeseed meal, suggest short - term trading and pay attention to China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations. The futures price declined this week. US soybean harvest is approaching with a good harvest expectation, and Argentina's export tax policy has changed the international market competition. Domestically, near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. The market is cautious due to frequent trade policy news [11][12] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - Rapeseed oil: The 01 contract closed at 10,162 yuan/ton, up 94 yuan/ton from last week. Canada's rapeseed production is expected to reach 20 million tons, the highest since 2018. Domestic vegetable oil supply is loose, but rapeseed oil production pressure is low. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed may lead to tight supply in the fourth quarter [9] - Rapeseed meal: The 01 contract closed at 2,404 yuan/ton, down 117 yuan/ton from last week. US soybean harvest is approaching, and Argentina's export tax policy has changed. Domestically, near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, but soybean meal substitution weakens demand [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures price and position: Rapeseed oil futures closed higher with a total position of 354,265 lots, up 1,836 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures declined with a total position of 371,100 lots, down 10,071 lots from last week [16] - Top 20 net positions: Rapeseed oil's top 20 net long position increased from +33,259 to +36,449. Rapeseed meal's top 20 net short position increased from - 13,121 to - 62,563 [20] - Futures warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil registered warehouse receipts were 8,057 lots, and rapeseed meal were 9,245 lots [26][27] - Spot price and basis: In Jiangsu, rapeseed oil spot price was 10,390 yuan/ton, slightly up from last week, and the basis was +228 yuan/ton. In Jiangsu Nantong, rapeseed meal price was 2,570 yuan/ton, with little change, and the basis was +65 yuan/ton [33][39] - Futures inter - month spread: Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread was +520 yuan/ton, and rapeseed meal 1 - 5 spread was +78 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [46] - Futures - spot ratio: Rapeseed oil - meal 01 contract ratio was 4.22, and the spot average price ratio was 4.21 [49] - Price spread between rapeseed oil and other oils: Rapeseed - soybean oil 01 contract spread was 2,000 yuan/ton, and rapeseed - palm oil 01 contract spread was 926 yuan/ton, both expanding this week [58] - Price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal: Soybean meal - rapeseed meal 01 contract spread was 532 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 450 yuan/ton as of Thursday [64] 3. Industry Chain Situation Rapeseed - Supply - inventory and import: As of September 19, 2025, oil mill rapeseed inventory was 50,000 tons. The estimated arrivals in September, October, and November 2025 were 190,000, 150,000, and 450,000 tons respectively [70] - Supply - import crushing profit: As of September 26, the import rapeseed spot crushing profit was +1,373 yuan/ton [74] - Supply - oil mill crushing volume: As of the 38th week of 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 49,000 tons, down 12,000 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 11.99% [78] - Supply - monthly import: In August 2025, China's rapeseed import was 246,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 348,000 tons (58.52%) and a month - on - month increase of 70,600 tons [82] Rapeseed Oil - Supply - inventory and import: As of the 38th week of 2025, domestic imported rapeseed oil inventory was 664,000 tons, down 19,000 tons (2.73%) from last week. In August 2025, rapeseed oil import was 140,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons (16.67%) and a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons [86] - Demand - consumption and production: As of August 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.506 million tons, and the monthly catering revenue was 449.57 billion yuan [90] - Demand - contract volume: As of the 38th week of 2025, the domestic imported rapeseed oil contract volume was 76,000 tons, down 5,000 tons (7.13%) from last week [94] Rapeseed Meal - Supply - inventory: As of the 38th week of 2025, domestic imported rapeseed meal inventory was 17,000 tons, down 1,000 tons (2.86%) from last week [98] - Supply - import: In August 2025, rapeseed meal import was 213,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9,600 tons (4.72%) and a month - on - month increase of 30,300 tons [102] - Demand - feed production: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly feed output was 2.8273 million tons [106] 4. Option Market Analysis - As of September 26, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 26.61%, up 4.12% from last week, at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [109]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4][7] Core Viewpoints - The soybean futures market rose slightly due to the phased improvement of supply - demand logic. The pressure on the supply side has been partially digested, and the demand side shows marginal improvement [3] - The peanut futures market closed slightly higher. The supply has no obvious increase, and the price is supported by potential yield decline in some areas and the need for new peanuts to be dried [5][6] Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract was 3929.00 yuan/ton, up 22.00 yuan/ton (+0.56%) from the previous day. The spot basis of edible soybeans was A11 + 291, down 22 (-32.14%) from the previous day [1] Market Information - New - season soybeans in Northeast China are gradually on the market, with the purchase price of rough grains between 1.8 - 2 yuan/jin. Due to climate impact, the protein content has declined, and high - protein sources have firm prices. The purchase work of enterprises is hindered by rain, and downstream enterprises purchase on demand [2] Price Movement Reasons - The slight increase in soybean futures was driven by the phased improvement of supply - demand logic. The pressure on the supply side has been partially digested, and the demand side shows marginal improvement [3] Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the peanut 2511 contract was 7778.00 yuan/ton, up 16.00 yuan/ton (+0.21%) from the previous day. The average spot price of peanuts was 8460.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan/ton (+0.24%) from the previous day, and the spot basis was PK11 + 522.00, up 84.00 (+19.18%) from the previous day [4] Market Information - The average price of general peanuts in the national market was 4.22 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin. Different regions have different price ranges. Oil mills in Shandong and Henan have different purchase prices and are cautious in purchasing [4] Price Movement Reasons - The narrow - range increase in peanut futures was due to the lack of obvious increase in supply. The potential yield decline in some areas in Henan supported the price. New peanuts need time to dry, and traders purchase as needed [5][6] Strategies - The strategy for soybeans is neutral [4] - The strategy for peanuts is neutral [7]

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal industry is neutral [3] - The investment rating for the corn industry is cautiously bearish [5] Group 2: Core Views - For the soybean meal market, the Sino - US talks have sent positive signals but no final results yet, and the US biodiesel policy has not met market expectations, dragging down US soybean prices. Domestically, the supply of soybean and soybean meal is relatively loose, and the market is focusing on Sino - US trade negotiations [2] - For the corn market, as new corn gradually enters the market, the supply will increase, and attention should be paid to downstream purchasing sentiment and the volume of new grain [4] Group 3: Summary by Catalog - Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The soybean meal 2601 contract closed at 2967 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton (+1.26%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract closed at 2444 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton (+2.05%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong, soybean meal spot prices increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the spot basis decreased by 27. In Fujian, rapeseed meal spot price increased by 30 yuan/ton, and the spot basis decreased by 19 [1] - Market Information: Brazil's expected soybean exports in September 2025 are 715 million tons, lower than the previous estimate but higher than last year. The exports from January - September 2025 are expected to reach 9.525 billion tons, and about 1.6 billion tons from October - December [1] Market Analysis - Sino - US talks have positive signals but no final results, and the US biodiesel policy has affected US soybean prices. Domestically, the supply of soybean and soybean meal is loose, and the market focuses on Sino - US trade negotiations [2] Strategy - Neutral [3] Group 4: Summary by Catalog - Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The corn 2511 contract closed at 2165 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (+0.05%); the corn starch 2511 contract closed at 2474 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.20%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price remained unchanged, and the spot basis decreased by 1. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price remained unchanged, and the spot basis decreased by 5 [3] - Market Information: From September 1 - 19, 2025, Brazil's corn exports were 4.73 million tons, with an average daily export of 305,807 tons (up 3.1% year - on - year). The export amount was 940 million US dollars, and the average export price was 198.1 US dollars/ton (up 1.8% year - on - year). In August 2025, Brazil's corn exports were 6.849 million tons (up 13.0% year - on - year) [3] Market Analysis - Domestically, the supply of corn is relatively loose as new corn in the Northeast and North China is gradually on the market. Traders are pessimistic about the future. The demand from deep - processing enterprises is low, and feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Palm oil: Short-term rebound height is limited [2] - Soybean oil: US soybeans are in a weak oscillation, and the upward space for soybean oil is difficult to open [2] - Soybean meal: Argentina resumes export tariffs, with a rebound and oscillation [2] - Soybean: Rebound and oscillation [2] - Corn: Pay attention to the new grain listing [2] - Sugar: Range oscillation [2] - Cotton: Pay attention to the price of seed cotton [2] - Eggs: Wait for the verification of the Double Festivals [2] - Live pigs: The spot market fails to boom in the peak season, maintain the shorting idea [2] - Peanuts: Oscillatory operation [2] Summary by Directory Palm Oil - **Production Data**: Malaysia's palm oil production from September 1 - 20, 2025, is estimated to have decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month [5] - **Export Data**: From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 12.9% (ITS) and 11.3% (AmSpec) compared to the same period last month [6][10] - **Market Performance**: The palm oil main contract had a day - session closing price of 9,222 yuan/ton with a 1.05% increase and a night - session closing price of 9,258 yuan/ton with a 0.39% increase [7] Soybean Oil - **USDA Forecast**: Analysts' average forecast for US soybean inventory on September 1, 2025, is 3.23 billion bushels, a 5.6% decline from the previous year [10] - **Export Sales**: As of September 18, 2025, US soybean export sales totaled a net increase of 72.45 tons, meeting expectations [11] - **Market Performance**: The soybean oil main contract had a day - session closing price of 8,192 yuan/ton with a 1.14% increase and a night - session closing price of 8,198 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase [7] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Market News**: Argentina resumed export tariffs, causing CBOT soybeans to rise slightly, but US soybean bumper harvest and weak export sales restricted the upward trend [15][17] - **Export Sales**: As of September 18, 2025, US soybean meal export sales totaled a net increase of 22.62 tons, meeting expectations [11] - **Market Performance**: DCE soybean meal 2601 had a day - session closing price of 2967 yuan/ton with a 1.54% increase and a night - session closing price of 2956 yuan/ton with a 0.17% decrease [15] Corn - **Market Price**: The northern corn collection port price is 2240 - 2270 yuan/ton, and the price in Guangdong Shekou is 2400 - 2420 yuan/ton [19] - **Market Performance**: The C2511 contract had a day - session closing price of 2,165 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase and a night - session closing price of 2,171 yuan/ton with a 0.28% increase [18] Sugar - **Production Data**: Conab lowered Brazil's sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season to 44.5 million tons [23] - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 23 tons in the 25/26 season [25] - **Market Performance**: The futures main contract price was 5485 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [23] Cotton - **Domestic Market**: Cotton spot trading is sluggish, and the seed cotton purchase price is temporarily stable [29] - **US Market**: ICE cotton futures fluctuated slightly, and the weekly export sales data was poor [30] - **Market Performance**: The CF2601 contract had a day - session closing price of 13,530 yuan/ton with a 0.18% decrease and a night - session closing price of 13490 yuan/ton with a 0.30% decrease [28] Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg 2510 contract had a closing price of 2,981 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.78% increase [34] Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The Henan spot price was 12580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan [37] - **Trend**: Maintain the shorting idea due to the weak peak - season spot market [2][38] Peanuts - **Spot Market**: The prices in most regions are stable, and the listing time of wheat - stubble peanuts is postponed [41] - **Market Performance**: The PK510 contract had a closing price of 7,770 yuan/ton with a 0.33% decrease [40]

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 9 月 26 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：随着阿根廷宣布恢复谷物及副产品的出口税。事件的扰动影响仍在持续，豆类期价迎来反弹。 目前，国内市场供应压力有增无减，市场对短期供应压力的担忧仍存在持续。此外，随着十一国庆假期的 临近，市场资金仍偏向于交易短期逻辑，资金稳定性较差，在没有超预期风险因素爆发的前提下，节前市 场波动或将逐渐下降，短期走势震荡偏强。 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点 ...